It'll be close, all of Auburn's games against good teams have been. And being at home, I think we'll see a better effort from the Bama defense than we saw in road losses to South Carolina and LSU. They are clearly a much different unit at home. But despite posting strong scoring defense numbers in Bryant-Denny (only 2 TDs allowed on defense), they have been far from dominant and haven't played any offense as lethal as Auburn's with Cam Newton. And when you watch the tape, all the things Bama does poorly on defense (tackling, playing assingment sound, containing the edge) are exactly the areas that Auburn typically exploits for huge numbers.
If we were talking about the 2009 defense taking the field today, I'd take Bama in a heartbeat. But this year's D just isn't ready yet, and the offense hasn't proved consistent enough to make up the difference.
Auburn 31, Alabama 27