Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 31-17
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 4
GEORGIA TECH (5-3, 3-2) @ #22 VIRGINIA TECH (6-2, 4-0) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After their disastrous 0-2 start (that included a WTF loss to James Madison), Virginia Tech has righted the ship and rattled off six straight wins, including four straight double-digit wins in ACC play. Tech's been better on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense where they've been nigh-unstoppable of late, with four straight games of 40+ points. Georgia Tech's had an up and down season, losing handily to NC State and Clemson and suffering an inexplicable loss to a bad Kansas team, but pulling together five wins -- albeit none over anyone of note (aside from a suspension-ravaged North Carolina squad). Throw in the fact that it's a Thursday night home game for Virginia Tech (something they hardly ever lose) and it's hard to see Georgia Tech pulling off the upset here.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH 42, GEORGIA TECH 24
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 6
#21 BAYLOR (7-2, 4-1) @ #17 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-1, 3-1) (12pm EST, FSN)Baylor's been one of the most surprising and feel-good stories of the year in college football, not only getting bowl eligible (something they accomplished two weeks ago), but taking the lead in the Big 12 South division (which, at 4-1, they hold all to themselves). How long can this crazy ride last? Can the incredible talent of Robert Griffin III carry Baylor all the way to the Big 12 Championship Game? Maybe... but maybe not. For as amazing as Baylor's been so far, they've been able to do it by beating up on some poor teams (Sam Houston State, Buffalo, Rice, Kansas, Colorado) and some disappointing teams (Texas). What truly is the best win on their resume? Kansas State? Texas? The only elite team they've played (TCU) blasted them (45-10) and while Oklahoma State isn't that good, they appear to be getting better week by week (they logged an impressive 24-7 road win over Kansas State last week even without their best player, WR Justin Blackmon) -- and they're at home. Asking Baylor to go on the road again a week after scoring a big road win over Texas seems like a stretch. Blackmon should be back for this game, which means the Oklahoma State could be firing on all cylinders -- which is a scary thought.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE 38, BAYLOR 31
#3 TCU (9-0, 5-0) @ #5 UTAH (8-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS College Sports)Of course the biggest game of the week -- and the first (and possibly only) match-up of top five teams -- would be a match-up of MWC heavyweights and be on a random channel like CBS College Sports. It's just been that kind of season this year; chaos reigns and the mid-majors flourish. But there will be one fewer mid-major darling after this game, as well as one less team vying for a BCS bowl berth. The winner will also be the heavy favorite to win the Mountain West Conference, but that seems almost beside the point right now. A TCU win could give them enough credibility to stay ahead of Boise in the BCS rankings for the duration of the season -- which would guarantee them no worse than an at-large berth and possibly even enable to them to sneak into the BCS Championship Game. On the flipside, would a Utah win over TCU be enough to push them ahead of Boise -- and keep them there? Probably not, thanks to the middling nature of their schedule. It may not even get them into a BCS bowl (if the BCS bowls decline to take two mid-majors this year as they did last year), which would be quite a slap in the face. But a loss kills any hope Utah has of doing something big this season, so the stakes are certainly high for them too (they just need more help than TCU does).
So... what about the game itself? TCU has the 9th best scoring offense (40.8 ppg), but their real strength is their sick defense, which is allowing just 8.7 ppg -- best in the nation. Only three teams have reached double figures against them -- Oregon State (21), Baylor (10), and SMU (24!). They've gone over a month without allowing more than six points and they've given up only two touchdowns in that entire span; sure, they're doing it against MWC foes, but consistently holding anyone to that level of output is remarkable. Their defense is really damn good. Utah's no slouch, either, though; they have the 3rd best scoring offense (45.3 ppg) and the sixth best scoring defense (14.1 ppg). They've put up 50+ four different times this year. On the other hand, they've also struggled more than TCU; they needed OT to beat a pretty mediocre Pitt team and were in a dogfight with a good but not great Air Force team a week ago (they won, 28-23). TCU's closest margin of victory is their nine-point opening weekend triumph over Pitt; other than a weird Friday night road game against SMU, they've barely been tested the rest of the season. Does that close-game experience give Utah an advantage or does it mark them as vulnerable? Hard to say. Utah has a good team and homefield advantage, but TCU just looks like a juggernaut right now. They won't eviscerate Utah the way they've destroyed their recent foes, but it's still too hard to pick against them.
THE PICK: TCU 27, UTAH 13
#6 ALABAMA (7-1, 4-1) @ #10 LSU (7-1, 4-1) (3:30pm EST, CBS)LSU's national title hopes appear fairly slim after Les ran out of his Milacles against Auburn two weeks ago, but they still have a shot at a conference title (with a win here and an Alabama win over Auburn later in the year). For all their flaws on offense (and, oh, there are many), they still have a filthy defense (at least when they aren't facing Cam Newtown and, no offense to Alabama's excellent offensive skill position players, but there aren't any Cam Newtons on that squad), homefield advantage (although Death Valley isn't so menacing in mid-afternoon as it is in the evening) and two weeks of preparation time... it wouldn't be the biggest upset ever. Then again, Alabama's had two weeks to prepare as well, their defense has steadily improved all season (and they won't be hugely tested by LSU's anemic attack), and their mammoth offensive line and one-two punch at running back should be able to pound away at LSU's defense. No doubt Les will have some tricks up his sleeve, but here's guessing it won't be enough.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 24, LSU 14
#18 ARKANSAS (6-2, 3-2) @ #19 SOUTH CAROLINA (6-2, 4-2, 7pm EST, ESPN)This week's other SEC game of the week features the nominal SEC East favorite (the Gamecocks) and the forgotten man in the SEC West (the Hogs). Arkansas' title aspirations were dealt a crushing blow by their losses to Auburn and Alabama, but they're still good enough to be a threat -- and a spoiler to the ambitions of a team like South Carolina, who still finds themselves the favorite to win the SEC East, despite their own two losses. South Carolina's pass defense has been shaky at times and Arkansas still has the most potent passing attack in the SEC; South Carolina also runs the risk of looking ahead to their division-deciding game with Florida next week. All that said... South Carolina is a different team with a healthy Marcus Lattimore. They're playing well and it just feels like this is finally their year in the SEC East.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 31, ARKANSAS 28
#15 ARIZONA (7-1, 4-1) @ #13 STANFORD (7-1, 4-1, 8pm EST, ABC)Or, the battle to be Oregon's bridesmaid in the Pac-10. Stanford's at home and fresh off a thorough demolition of Washington a week ago (41-0). Arizona's going on the road and fresh off an uncomfortably close 29-21 over a middling UCLA team -- and they're still trying to sort out their QB issues (regular starter Nick Foles is expected to be recovered from a knee injury in time to play in this one, but he might also be rusty). That said, they do have probably the stiffest defense Stanford has faced all year and the most potent offense they've dealt with aside from Oregon -- they're unquestionably a good team. But just how good are they? That's unclear. Edge to Stanford since they're at home and seem to be dealing with fewer issues right now.
THE PICK: STANFORD 34, ARIZONA 30
Showing posts with label Arizona Wildcats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arizona Wildcats. Show all posts
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Week 2 Questions: Iowa Hawkeyes
1. What are your overall thoughts on the team’s performance so far this year?
Pretty pleased. There’s not much to dislike about 37-7 and 35-7 wins. The biggest question mark on offense (the offensive line) has looked solid through two games (albeit against weak competition); Stanzi’s rarely been pressured and usually had ample time to find open receivers and they’ve done a nice job of opening holes for the running game most of the time. The biggest question mark on defense was the pair of new linebackers and so far things have been going pretty well there, too. Tyler Nielsen slid into one of the outside linebacker spots and already looks as comfortable as a multi-year starter there; at middle linebacker Jeff Tarpinian’s been slowed by a wrist injury, but he’s been fine in limited action. The running game has been a pleasant surprise, with Adam Robinson looking even better than a year ago and Jewel Hampton looking like a very competent sidekick. The defensive line hasn’t been recording a lot of sacks, but they have been getting quite a bit of pressure on the quarterback. Overall, they’ve done exactly what you’d want them to do against lesser opposition: dominate them.
2. Based on the performance in Week 1 and 2, what area(s) does the team need to improve on the most?
There are a few question marks on special teams. Due to circumstance, Iowa hasn’t yet attempted a field goal this year and given the inconsistency of our kickers over the past two years, that’s a bit of a worry. The coverage on a few kickoffs and a punt on Saturday was also poor; it didn’t cost them anything in that game, but it would be a poor idea to give easy yards to stronger opponents. Other than that, it’s just a matter of being a bit more consistent along the offensive line and in coverage for the linebackers. We’ll know a lot more about this team after this week’s road game against Arizona; that will be their first real test of the season.
3. Which player(s) needs to step up their performance in the coming weeks?
As noted earlier, no one’s really played poorly thus far. RG Nolan MacMillan probably needs to be more consistent if he wants to keep his starting job; he only inherited that job because of an injury late in training camp to projected starter Adam Gettis. Now that Gettis is getting healthier, MacMillan will need to play at a high level to keep the starting spot to himself.
4. Which player has surprised you the most so far this season with their performance ?
Probably Tyler Nielsen, if only because before this season he’d only seen action on special teams or in mop-up duty (which was especially hard to come by on last year’s livin’ on the edge Iowa team). Riley Reiff, Julian Vandervelde, Adam Robinson, and Allan Reisner have also been playing very well this season, but it’s not quite as much of a surprise since they’d played well in spurts over the past two seasons. After some early game jitters against Eastern Illinois, Nielsen has really come on strong, delivering some hard hits and displaying impressive athleticism in leaping up for an interception against Iowa State. He’s filling A.J. Edds’ shoes quite well at the moment, although the true test will be when Iowa plays a good passing team, as Edds’ greatest skill was his excellent coverage ability – the jury’s still out on Nielsen there.
5. What are the major question marks headed into Week 3?
Just how good is this team and how well they handle a difficult road trip? They’ve played well through two games and avoided any embarrassing pratfalls (a la Virginia Tech) or near-pratfalls (a la last year’s Iowa team), but the level of competition also hasn’t been very high. They’ve basically performed up to expectations so far (although the first half against Iowa State last week was an impressive showcase of domination in all facets of a game: offense, defense, special teams), but things will be much more difficult this week. Arizona has also blown out its first two opponents (Toledo and The Citadel) and is building off a solid season a year ago. They’re far more talented than either Eastern Illinois or Iowa State and have plenty of speed and talent on offense and defense to challenge Iowa. And in Nick Foles they have a QB who can be patient and accurate and give Iowa’s defense some problems (see: pretty much every Northwestern quarterback over the past five years).
There are some worries related to the game that have little to do with the actual football, too. It’s a trip west for a late start (9:30pm CST) in the desert, conditions which have caused some Iowa fans to draw parallels to the ugly 44-7 road loss they suffered against Arizona State in 2004. Those same Iowa fans are also fretting over Iowa’s record in games west of the Rockies, since they’ve lost their last six or seven games in those conditions (albeit over a span of 20-30 years, so we’re talking about a pretty absurd sample size here). Still, even without the superstitions, it’s obvious that these are obviously ideal conditions, given how uncommon they are to Iowa.
6. What needs to happen in order to secure a victory in Week 3?
As usual with Iowa, it’s all about the line play. The offensive line needs to give Stanzi adequate protection and open up holes for Robinson and Hampton, while the defensive line needs to get pressure on Foles and disrupt this rhythm; the latter is especially important since Iowa rarely blitzes. If the defensive line can’t get pressure by themselves, the defense will either be forced to make uncomfortable blitzes or settle for getting picked apart by Foles and the Arizona receivers.
That said, I feel good about this game despite the fact that it’s a tough road game against an offense that’s been blitzing teams lately. Arizona’s struggled against teams like Iowa over the past few years: big, physical teams that can push them around and impose their will have really put the brakes on their offense (see: Iowa last year, or Arizona State and USC last year, or, most notably, Nebraska in last year’s Holiday Bowl, when they wiped the floor with Arizona) and been able to overpower their offense as well (see: Iowa last year to an extent and, again, Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl). If Iowa can deal with the inevitable early surge of emotion from Arizona (night game, national TV, “revenge” game, etc.) and avoid costly turnovers, I think they’ll be able to wear Arizona down and take control in the second half.
Pretty pleased. There’s not much to dislike about 37-7 and 35-7 wins. The biggest question mark on offense (the offensive line) has looked solid through two games (albeit against weak competition); Stanzi’s rarely been pressured and usually had ample time to find open receivers and they’ve done a nice job of opening holes for the running game most of the time. The biggest question mark on defense was the pair of new linebackers and so far things have been going pretty well there, too. Tyler Nielsen slid into one of the outside linebacker spots and already looks as comfortable as a multi-year starter there; at middle linebacker Jeff Tarpinian’s been slowed by a wrist injury, but he’s been fine in limited action. The running game has been a pleasant surprise, with Adam Robinson looking even better than a year ago and Jewel Hampton looking like a very competent sidekick. The defensive line hasn’t been recording a lot of sacks, but they have been getting quite a bit of pressure on the quarterback. Overall, they’ve done exactly what you’d want them to do against lesser opposition: dominate them.
2. Based on the performance in Week 1 and 2, what area(s) does the team need to improve on the most?
There are a few question marks on special teams. Due to circumstance, Iowa hasn’t yet attempted a field goal this year and given the inconsistency of our kickers over the past two years, that’s a bit of a worry. The coverage on a few kickoffs and a punt on Saturday was also poor; it didn’t cost them anything in that game, but it would be a poor idea to give easy yards to stronger opponents. Other than that, it’s just a matter of being a bit more consistent along the offensive line and in coverage for the linebackers. We’ll know a lot more about this team after this week’s road game against Arizona; that will be their first real test of the season.
3. Which player(s) needs to step up their performance in the coming weeks?
As noted earlier, no one’s really played poorly thus far. RG Nolan MacMillan probably needs to be more consistent if he wants to keep his starting job; he only inherited that job because of an injury late in training camp to projected starter Adam Gettis. Now that Gettis is getting healthier, MacMillan will need to play at a high level to keep the starting spot to himself.
4. Which player has surprised you the most so far this season with their performance ?
Probably Tyler Nielsen, if only because before this season he’d only seen action on special teams or in mop-up duty (which was especially hard to come by on last year’s livin’ on the edge Iowa team). Riley Reiff, Julian Vandervelde, Adam Robinson, and Allan Reisner have also been playing very well this season, but it’s not quite as much of a surprise since they’d played well in spurts over the past two seasons. After some early game jitters against Eastern Illinois, Nielsen has really come on strong, delivering some hard hits and displaying impressive athleticism in leaping up for an interception against Iowa State. He’s filling A.J. Edds’ shoes quite well at the moment, although the true test will be when Iowa plays a good passing team, as Edds’ greatest skill was his excellent coverage ability – the jury’s still out on Nielsen there.
5. What are the major question marks headed into Week 3?
Just how good is this team and how well they handle a difficult road trip? They’ve played well through two games and avoided any embarrassing pratfalls (a la Virginia Tech) or near-pratfalls (a la last year’s Iowa team), but the level of competition also hasn’t been very high. They’ve basically performed up to expectations so far (although the first half against Iowa State last week was an impressive showcase of domination in all facets of a game: offense, defense, special teams), but things will be much more difficult this week. Arizona has also blown out its first two opponents (Toledo and The Citadel) and is building off a solid season a year ago. They’re far more talented than either Eastern Illinois or Iowa State and have plenty of speed and talent on offense and defense to challenge Iowa. And in Nick Foles they have a QB who can be patient and accurate and give Iowa’s defense some problems (see: pretty much every Northwestern quarterback over the past five years).
There are some worries related to the game that have little to do with the actual football, too. It’s a trip west for a late start (9:30pm CST) in the desert, conditions which have caused some Iowa fans to draw parallels to the ugly 44-7 road loss they suffered against Arizona State in 2004. Those same Iowa fans are also fretting over Iowa’s record in games west of the Rockies, since they’ve lost their last six or seven games in those conditions (albeit over a span of 20-30 years, so we’re talking about a pretty absurd sample size here). Still, even without the superstitions, it’s obvious that these are obviously ideal conditions, given how uncommon they are to Iowa.
6. What needs to happen in order to secure a victory in Week 3?
As usual with Iowa, it’s all about the line play. The offensive line needs to give Stanzi adequate protection and open up holes for Robinson and Hampton, while the defensive line needs to get pressure on Foles and disrupt this rhythm; the latter is especially important since Iowa rarely blitzes. If the defensive line can’t get pressure by themselves, the defense will either be forced to make uncomfortable blitzes or settle for getting picked apart by Foles and the Arizona receivers.
That said, I feel good about this game despite the fact that it’s a tough road game against an offense that’s been blitzing teams lately. Arizona’s struggled against teams like Iowa over the past few years: big, physical teams that can push them around and impose their will have really put the brakes on their offense (see: Iowa last year, or Arizona State and USC last year, or, most notably, Nebraska in last year’s Holiday Bowl, when they wiped the floor with Arizona) and been able to overpower their offense as well (see: Iowa last year to an extent and, again, Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl). If Iowa can deal with the inevitable early surge of emotion from Arizona (night game, national TV, “revenge” game, etc.) and avoid costly turnovers, I think they’ll be able to wear Arizona down and take control in the second half.
The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 16-18
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 7-5
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 7-5
SATURDAY, SEPT. 18
#12 Arkansas @ Georgia (12pm EST, ESPN)
Arkansas was the trendy pick in the SEC this year, following in the proud footsteps of 2009 Ole Miss and 2008 Georgia, although by now the pollsters have learned their lesson well enough not to place Arkansas immediately in the top ten. They certainly didn't look like a top ten team in struggling with UL-Monroe for three quarters last week. Like that '09 Ole Miss squad, they feature a much-hyped veteran signal-caller (Ryan Mallett for Arkansas, Jevan Snead for Ole Miss) and a good amount of other returning starters and were competitive against other top SEC teams the year prior. Unlike that '09 Ole Miss squad, they don't have Houston Nutt, a serial underachiever when expectations are high. This road trip to Georgia is their first real test of the season and the first game in a fairly brutal four-game stretch that will either reveal them as real contenders for an SEC (and possibly even national) title or expose them as fraudulent pretenders; after the road game against Georgia, Arkansas entertains Alabama at home, faces Texas A&M in Dallas, and heads back on the road to play Auburn. That's some tough sledding. A week ago, Georgia failed their first big test of the season, getting manhandled by South Carolina, 17-6. The Ol' Ball Coach rarely had South Carolina test Georgia's pass defense in that game -- why bother when Marcus Lattimore could grind those undersized Georgia defenders into dust -- but Petrino and Mallett figure to do just that on Saturday. If the Georgia pass defense can keep Mallett in check, they have a shot in this one. Here's guessing they struggle to do that.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS 31, GEORGIA 24
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)
Oh, ACC. It wasn't really just two weeks ago that you had five teams ranked in the top 20 and various pundits (including this one) suggesting that the ACC Coastal could be the toughest division in college football, was it? Yeah, about that... NOT SO MUCH. It may still be tough for one team to emerge from that division, but only because all the teams in it are varying degrees of mediocre. Georgia Tech dispatched South Carolina State easily in week one (41-10), but provided one of the more surprising upsets of the season in traveling to Lawrence and losing to the same Kansas team that a week earlier had failed to score a touchdown against a I-AA North Dakota State team. That's... not good. But when your quarterback goes 5/15, good things generally aren't right around the corner, even if you are an option team. On the other side, North Carolina has had two weeks to think about their near-miss against LSU and prepare for Georgia Tech's always-tricky offense. The bad news is that they still have no idea which players that were suspended for that LSU tilt may be available for this game; the wheels of NCAA justice move very slowly indeed. Giving a team an extra week to prepare for the Tech offense is usually a good way to neutralize (at least in part) its effectiveness, but that may not be of much aid to a Tar Heel team dealing with so much chaos.
THE PICK: GEORGIA TECH 34, NORTH CAROLINA 21
#8 Nebraska @ Washington (330pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
Nebraska pulled off a sloppy 38-17 win over Idaho last week, turning the ball over four times and committing ten penalties (for 123 yards); they'll need to be sharper than that to get to to 3-0 this week. The Washington hype bus got a flat tire in week one as they came undone on a road trip to BYU, but they bounced back nicely to take care of business against Syracuse last week. Nebraska obviously represents a massive leap in quality from either of those teams, but Washington has been a scrappy team against ranked opponents under Sarkisian. They went 2-3 a year ago, blasting a 19th ranked Cal team to the end the season and pulling off a memorable September upset over then-#3 USC. (In their three losses, they lost a spirited 31-23 game to LSU, but got smashed by both Oregon schools.) Granted, those teams may have been overrated at the time of those games (USC certainly was, judging by the rest of their season), but still: Sark has done an excellent job of getting his team ready to play against top teams when they come to Seattle. Nebraska, meanwhile, has found a bit of offense to go with their very solid defense, led by freshman quarterback Taylor "T-Magic" Martinez, who's been a capable passer (21/32, 242 yards, 0/1 TD/INT) and a dynamic runner (21 carries, 384 yards, 1 TD). Washington keeps it close by forcing Martinez into some costly errors, but Nebraska's defense ultimately makes enough stops to secure victory.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, WASHINGTON 24
Clemson @ #16 Auburn (7pm EST, ESPN)
Somewhat inexplicably, ESPN's College Gameday has chosen to head to this game this week. Maybe they got some good buy one/get one free deals when they were in Alabama for the Penn State-Alabama game last week. In any event, it is an intriguing match-up between one of the few ACC teams that hasn't fallen on their faces yet and an SEC West team that continues to generate buzz as an SEC title contender. Mind you, Clemson's largely managed to avoid the embarrassing fates that have befallen fellow ACC teams by playing no one with a pulse (North Texas and Presbyterian so far) and Auburn looked decidedly not-ready-for-primetime in eking out a win over a Mississippi State team that could barely complete a pass. Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper have done an adequate job of replacing CJ Spiller so far (27 carries, 243 yards, 4 TD) and QB Kyle Parker has been efficient (15/26, 283 yards, 4/1 TD/INT), but Auburn's defense is a gigantic leap in quality from the likes of the Mean Green and the Blue Hose. Auburn's been led by JUCO transfer QB Cam Newton, still best known for stealing a laptop at Florida a few years ago. Newton's leading the team in both passing (20/33, 322 yards, 5/1 TD/INT) and running (33 carries, 241 yards, 2 TD) and Clemson hasn't had to deal with anything like him yet. Throw in the fact that Auburn has utterly owned this series (14 wins in a row dating back to 1952, including 9 in a row in Auburn) and the pick to win is pretty easy. And, hell, Clemson's from the ACC -- are you really gonna pick them to do something good?
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, CLEMSON 24
#6 Texas @ Texas Tech (8pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
The last time Texas went to Lubbock these two teams played one of the best games of the last few years and Michael Crabtree made one of the most memorable catches of the decade in Tech's sensational upset of Texas that ended Texas' conference (and national) title ambitions. Sadly, most of the key personnel from that game -- Colt McCoy, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, Mike Leach -- are no longer around for this installment, so it may be hard to get a rematch that lives up to that tremendous standard. That said, if Texas Tech continues to build upon the promise shown in their first two games and the Texas offense continues to look lethargic, an upset isn't out of the question. The atmosphere in Lubbock should be frenzied and Tuberville's Auburn teams frequently played their best ball in the biggest games (from 2004-2008, Tuberville's Auburn teams went 9-6 against top ten-ranked foes). On the other hand, for all its sluggishness, the Texas offense hasn't turned the ball over thus far and has scored 30+ points in both games and the defense has been absolute nails most of the time. Thus far, Tuberville's stayed remarkably faithful to the Air Raid offense that Mike Leach installed at Texas Tech: they threw 53 times against SMU and 41 times against New Mexico. Of course, they also ran the ball 36 times against New Mexico and two backs had ten carries, so Tuberville clearly hasn't forgotten about establishing the run. Against a stout Texas defense that may be easier said than done, so look for Taylor Potts to chuck the ball early and often. On the other side of the ball, the Texas Tech defense hasn't been particularly fearsome yet: they conceded 433 yards of offense to New Mexico and two second-quarter touchdowns when the game was still in doubt to a degree. Against SMU they gave up 327 yards and 27 points, so this is clearly a work in progress; in any event, there should be some holes for the Texas offense to exploit. Unless Texas has some really costly turnovers, they should win this one; they have a defense capable of stopping Tech a few times, while Tech doesn't seem to have a defense capable of stopping Texas very often.
THE PICK: TEXAS 35, TEXAS TECH 24
#9 Iowa @ #24 Arizona (1030pm EST, ESPN)
And now we come to the only game of the day to feature two ranked opponents. Iowa beat Arizona 27-17 a year ago in Iowa City in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated (Arizona's two touchdowns came off a pick-six and late touchdown drive against reserve defenders after Iowa had already built a 27-10 lead). So what's changed in a year, aside from the locale? Not much for Iowa, aside from a rebuilt offensive line that's performed well against admittedly below-average competition (this week will be the first true test) and a linebacking corps that's two-thirds new. Arizona, on the other hand, has a lot of new faces in the front seven on defense, but returns a lot on offense. But the most significant change is at quarterback; Matt Scott was the Wildcats' QB in the early going last year, but he was so disastrous against Iowa (4/14, 50 yds, 0/1 TD/INT) that he gave way to Nick Foles... and never got the job back. Foles led the Arizona offense on their only scoring drive against Iowa a year ago and went to garner all-conference honors in the Pac-10; the Arizona offense really exploded when he took over and bears little resemblance to the outfit that sputtered and died against Iowa a year ago -- so that will be a significant new challenge. One thing that should give Iowa confidence? That offense curled up into a ball and whimpered when faced with a fast, hard-hitting, aggressive defense in Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl last year. Iowa doesn't have an Ndamukong Suh to lead that attack, but they do have Adrian Clayborn and the rest of a very aggressive and disruptive defensive line, linebackers that have been coming into their own, and a mostly veteran secondary.
#12 Arkansas @ Georgia (12pm EST, ESPN)
Arkansas was the trendy pick in the SEC this year, following in the proud footsteps of 2009 Ole Miss and 2008 Georgia, although by now the pollsters have learned their lesson well enough not to place Arkansas immediately in the top ten. They certainly didn't look like a top ten team in struggling with UL-Monroe for three quarters last week. Like that '09 Ole Miss squad, they feature a much-hyped veteran signal-caller (Ryan Mallett for Arkansas, Jevan Snead for Ole Miss) and a good amount of other returning starters and were competitive against other top SEC teams the year prior. Unlike that '09 Ole Miss squad, they don't have Houston Nutt, a serial underachiever when expectations are high. This road trip to Georgia is their first real test of the season and the first game in a fairly brutal four-game stretch that will either reveal them as real contenders for an SEC (and possibly even national) title or expose them as fraudulent pretenders; after the road game against Georgia, Arkansas entertains Alabama at home, faces Texas A&M in Dallas, and heads back on the road to play Auburn. That's some tough sledding. A week ago, Georgia failed their first big test of the season, getting manhandled by South Carolina, 17-6. The Ol' Ball Coach rarely had South Carolina test Georgia's pass defense in that game -- why bother when Marcus Lattimore could grind those undersized Georgia defenders into dust -- but Petrino and Mallett figure to do just that on Saturday. If the Georgia pass defense can keep Mallett in check, they have a shot in this one. Here's guessing they struggle to do that.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS 31, GEORGIA 24
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)
Oh, ACC. It wasn't really just two weeks ago that you had five teams ranked in the top 20 and various pundits (including this one) suggesting that the ACC Coastal could be the toughest division in college football, was it? Yeah, about that... NOT SO MUCH. It may still be tough for one team to emerge from that division, but only because all the teams in it are varying degrees of mediocre. Georgia Tech dispatched South Carolina State easily in week one (41-10), but provided one of the more surprising upsets of the season in traveling to Lawrence and losing to the same Kansas team that a week earlier had failed to score a touchdown against a I-AA North Dakota State team. That's... not good. But when your quarterback goes 5/15, good things generally aren't right around the corner, even if you are an option team. On the other side, North Carolina has had two weeks to think about their near-miss against LSU and prepare for Georgia Tech's always-tricky offense. The bad news is that they still have no idea which players that were suspended for that LSU tilt may be available for this game; the wheels of NCAA justice move very slowly indeed. Giving a team an extra week to prepare for the Tech offense is usually a good way to neutralize (at least in part) its effectiveness, but that may not be of much aid to a Tar Heel team dealing with so much chaos.
THE PICK: GEORGIA TECH 34, NORTH CAROLINA 21
#8 Nebraska @ Washington (330pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
Nebraska pulled off a sloppy 38-17 win over Idaho last week, turning the ball over four times and committing ten penalties (for 123 yards); they'll need to be sharper than that to get to to 3-0 this week. The Washington hype bus got a flat tire in week one as they came undone on a road trip to BYU, but they bounced back nicely to take care of business against Syracuse last week. Nebraska obviously represents a massive leap in quality from either of those teams, but Washington has been a scrappy team against ranked opponents under Sarkisian. They went 2-3 a year ago, blasting a 19th ranked Cal team to the end the season and pulling off a memorable September upset over then-#3 USC. (In their three losses, they lost a spirited 31-23 game to LSU, but got smashed by both Oregon schools.) Granted, those teams may have been overrated at the time of those games (USC certainly was, judging by the rest of their season), but still: Sark has done an excellent job of getting his team ready to play against top teams when they come to Seattle. Nebraska, meanwhile, has found a bit of offense to go with their very solid defense, led by freshman quarterback Taylor "T-Magic" Martinez, who's been a capable passer (21/32, 242 yards, 0/1 TD/INT) and a dynamic runner (21 carries, 384 yards, 1 TD). Washington keeps it close by forcing Martinez into some costly errors, but Nebraska's defense ultimately makes enough stops to secure victory.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, WASHINGTON 24
Clemson @ #16 Auburn (7pm EST, ESPN)
Somewhat inexplicably, ESPN's College Gameday has chosen to head to this game this week. Maybe they got some good buy one/get one free deals when they were in Alabama for the Penn State-Alabama game last week. In any event, it is an intriguing match-up between one of the few ACC teams that hasn't fallen on their faces yet and an SEC West team that continues to generate buzz as an SEC title contender. Mind you, Clemson's largely managed to avoid the embarrassing fates that have befallen fellow ACC teams by playing no one with a pulse (North Texas and Presbyterian so far) and Auburn looked decidedly not-ready-for-primetime in eking out a win over a Mississippi State team that could barely complete a pass. Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper have done an adequate job of replacing CJ Spiller so far (27 carries, 243 yards, 4 TD) and QB Kyle Parker has been efficient (15/26, 283 yards, 4/1 TD/INT), but Auburn's defense is a gigantic leap in quality from the likes of the Mean Green and the Blue Hose. Auburn's been led by JUCO transfer QB Cam Newton, still best known for stealing a laptop at Florida a few years ago. Newton's leading the team in both passing (20/33, 322 yards, 5/1 TD/INT) and running (33 carries, 241 yards, 2 TD) and Clemson hasn't had to deal with anything like him yet. Throw in the fact that Auburn has utterly owned this series (14 wins in a row dating back to 1952, including 9 in a row in Auburn) and the pick to win is pretty easy. And, hell, Clemson's from the ACC -- are you really gonna pick them to do something good?
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, CLEMSON 24
#6 Texas @ Texas Tech (8pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
The last time Texas went to Lubbock these two teams played one of the best games of the last few years and Michael Crabtree made one of the most memorable catches of the decade in Tech's sensational upset of Texas that ended Texas' conference (and national) title ambitions. Sadly, most of the key personnel from that game -- Colt McCoy, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, Mike Leach -- are no longer around for this installment, so it may be hard to get a rematch that lives up to that tremendous standard. That said, if Texas Tech continues to build upon the promise shown in their first two games and the Texas offense continues to look lethargic, an upset isn't out of the question. The atmosphere in Lubbock should be frenzied and Tuberville's Auburn teams frequently played their best ball in the biggest games (from 2004-2008, Tuberville's Auburn teams went 9-6 against top ten-ranked foes). On the other hand, for all its sluggishness, the Texas offense hasn't turned the ball over thus far and has scored 30+ points in both games and the defense has been absolute nails most of the time. Thus far, Tuberville's stayed remarkably faithful to the Air Raid offense that Mike Leach installed at Texas Tech: they threw 53 times against SMU and 41 times against New Mexico. Of course, they also ran the ball 36 times against New Mexico and two backs had ten carries, so Tuberville clearly hasn't forgotten about establishing the run. Against a stout Texas defense that may be easier said than done, so look for Taylor Potts to chuck the ball early and often. On the other side of the ball, the Texas Tech defense hasn't been particularly fearsome yet: they conceded 433 yards of offense to New Mexico and two second-quarter touchdowns when the game was still in doubt to a degree. Against SMU they gave up 327 yards and 27 points, so this is clearly a work in progress; in any event, there should be some holes for the Texas offense to exploit. Unless Texas has some really costly turnovers, they should win this one; they have a defense capable of stopping Tech a few times, while Tech doesn't seem to have a defense capable of stopping Texas very often.
THE PICK: TEXAS 35, TEXAS TECH 24
#9 Iowa @ #24 Arizona (1030pm EST, ESPN)
And now we come to the only game of the day to feature two ranked opponents. Iowa beat Arizona 27-17 a year ago in Iowa City in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated (Arizona's two touchdowns came off a pick-six and late touchdown drive against reserve defenders after Iowa had already built a 27-10 lead). So what's changed in a year, aside from the locale? Not much for Iowa, aside from a rebuilt offensive line that's performed well against admittedly below-average competition (this week will be the first true test) and a linebacking corps that's two-thirds new. Arizona, on the other hand, has a lot of new faces in the front seven on defense, but returns a lot on offense. But the most significant change is at quarterback; Matt Scott was the Wildcats' QB in the early going last year, but he was so disastrous against Iowa (4/14, 50 yds, 0/1 TD/INT) that he gave way to Nick Foles... and never got the job back. Foles led the Arizona offense on their only scoring drive against Iowa a year ago and went to garner all-conference honors in the Pac-10; the Arizona offense really exploded when he took over and bears little resemblance to the outfit that sputtered and died against Iowa a year ago -- so that will be a significant new challenge. One thing that should give Iowa confidence? That offense curled up into a ball and whimpered when faced with a fast, hard-hitting, aggressive defense in Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl last year. Iowa doesn't have an Ndamukong Suh to lead that attack, but they do have Adrian Clayborn and the rest of a very aggressive and disruptive defensive line, linebackers that have been coming into their own, and a mostly veteran secondary.
On offense, Iowa's approach won't be much of a mystery: they're going to pound away with their physical offensive line and the one-two punch of Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton at running back and then use play-action to go over the top to Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. A week ago, they demoralized Iowa State with an unstoppable, punishing ground game and followed it up by finishing them off with some deep bombs in the passing game. If the offensive line can open holes for the running game and give Stanzi time to survey the field, the Iowa offense should do very well; on the other hand, the Arizona defense has far more speed and physical talent than either the Iowa State or the Eastern Illinois defenses, so the going won't be easy. Iowa has a dreadful record in games played out west, but that was then and this is now: they have a well-prepared, mentally tough team that should be able to punish Arizona physically.
THE PICK: IOWA 27, ARIZONA 20
THE PICK: IOWA 27, ARIZONA 20
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Pac-10 Preview
2009 Standings
Oregon 10-3 (8-1)
Arizona 8-5 (6-3)
Oregon State 8-5 (6-3)
Stanford 8-5 (6-3)
USC 9-4 (5-4)
California 8-5 (5-4)
Washington 5-7 (4-5)
UCLA 7-6 (3-6)
Arizona State 4-8 (2-7)
Washington State 1-11 (0-9)
Returning Leaders: Passing
Kevin Riley, Cal, Sr (209 of 382 for 2850 yds, 18 TD, 8 INT)
Jake Locker, Washington, Sr (230 of 395 for 2800, 21 TD, 11 INT)
Matt Barkley, USC, Soph (211 of 352 for 2735, 15 TD, 14 INT)
Andrew Luck, Stanford, Soph (162 of 288 for 2575, 13 TD, 4 INT)
Nick Foles, Arizona, Jr (257 of 400 for 2465, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
LaMichael James, Oregon, Soph (230 carries for 1546 yds, 14 TD)
Jacquizz Rodgers, OSU, Jr (273 carries for 1440 yds, 21 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Chris Polk, Washington, Jr (226 carries for 1113 yds, 5 TD, 4.9 ypc)
Shane Vereen, Cal, Jr (183 carries for 952 yds, 12 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
James Rodgers, OSU, Sr (91 rec for 1034 yds, 9 TD, 7.0 rec/game)
Jacquizz Rodgers, OSU, Jr (78 rec for 522 yds, 1 TD, 6.0 rec/game)
Ryan Whalen, Stanford, Sr (57 rec for 926 yds, 4 TD, 4.4 rec/game)
Jeff Maehl, Oregon, Sr (53 rec for 696 yds, 6 TD, 4.1 rec/game)
Jermaine Kearse, Washington, Jr (50 rec for 866 yds, 8 TD)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Mike Mohamed, Cal, Sr, LB (111 total, 8.54 tackles/game)
John Boyett, Oregon, Soph, S (90 total, 6.92 tackles/game)
Mason Foster, Washington, Sr, LB (85 total, 7.08 tackles/game)
Alex Hoffman-Ellis, Wash St, Jr, LB (84 total, 7.64 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Kenny Rowe, Oregon, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ricky Elmore, Arizona, Sr, DE (10.5)
Nick Perry, USC, Soph, DE (9.0)
Thomas Keiser, Stanford, Jr, DE (8.0)
Cameron Jordan, Cal, Sr, DE (8.0)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Rahim Moore, UCLA, Jr, S (10 interceptions)
Trevin Wade, Arizona, Jr, CB (5)
Talmadge Jackson, Oregon, Sr, CB (4)
Akeem Ayers, UCLA, Jr, LB (4)
Around the Interweb
Who is your pick to win the Pac-10?
Scout.com's Oregon State site BeaverFootball.com:
It's hard not to pick Oregon, they have so much coming back. But the quarterback is so pivotal to that offense and team and Jeremiah Masoli had it down to a science. But with Masoli running afoul of the law and having been kicked off the team, the Ducks I think may falter in the chase for the crown. In the end, USC, allow they can't go to a bowl, finishes atop the Pac-10 standings.
Anthony from the USC based blog The Trojan Empire:
With 7 teams receiving first-place votes from the media, parity is evident in the Pac 10. I'm going to stray from the popular pick, which is Oregon, and choose the Beavers of Oregon State. Mike Riley's teams are notorious for slow starts, and have a difficult slate to begin the season, but once they enter Pac 10 play, they will entertain two of the conference favorites at home (USC, Oregon), while also welcoming the Golden Bears. Oregon appears a a world-beater at home, but no so much away from Autzen. USC has lost the last two games played in Corvallis, and if not for late Reggie Bush heroics, there would have been a third.
UCLA based blog The Trojan Haters Club:
One thing’s for sure – usc will not be representing the Conference in the Postseason this year. Even with all the defections, Lane Kiffin — a mediocre Head Coach at best — still has more talent on his roster than anyone else. But usc’s ban leaves Oregon in the driver’s seat to play in the Rose Bowl Game, even without dynamic stoner QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks seemed like the Class of the Pac-10 last season.
Breaking Down The Pac-10
Arizona Wildcats
Chris (Prediction: #7): The only reasons I have Arizona falling this far is that I'm not sold on the offense's ability to win shootout games in this league. The offense is perfectly adequate, but adequate won't do it in a league this stacked offensively. Also there are some questions defensively, as the Wildcats only return 4 starters from a pretty good defense a year ago, and will also have to deal with switching to a completely different scheme. This all adds up to not being a contender for the Pac-10 title.
Ross (Prediction: #6): They lose a ton on defense (7 starters), return a ton on offense (8 starters), lose both coordinators... but they have a favorable schedule (5 conference home games and two of the conference road games are winnable ones @ UCLA and @ Washington State). If you wanted to swap them with Washington, I wouldn't argue.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Chris (Prediction: #9): Offensively the Sun Devils will struggle...but not as much as most people think. Who can forget that Steven Threet was adequate at Michigan two years ago before transferring away from Rich Rod's option heavy spread? Threet may not be the Sun Devils' savior in 2010, but 2011 may be a different story, especially if linebacking sensation Vontaze Burfict sticks around for the party. The Sun Devils' 2010 storyline: O will struggle and D will be good...not 2009 good, but good.
Ross (Prediction #9): LB Vontaze Burfict is one of the best players in the league. Unfortunately, his teammates kinda suck.
California Golden Bears
Chris (Prediction: #6): Separating the teams in the middle of the Pac-10 is like choosing the hottest girl at a Curves...in other words, it's difficult and extremely agonizing. To pick Cal over Arizona, I have to believe that Cal's pass defense will improve drastically (despite only returning one starter and probably starting a freshman). I don't, but in a quarterback's league, no guy has more experience than Kevin Riley. Riley will use that experience to exploit Pac-10 secondaries alongside one of the nation's best up-and-coming running backs in Shane Vereen. Also, Jeff Tedford coached teams play too well for the Bears to fall any further.
Ross (Prediction: #5): This seems to be in the default range that Cal is settling into under Tedford: good, but not great. Kevin Riley's back for a third year as starter, but he's shown little that makes you think he could lead them to the promised land. Still, the bottom rarely falls out on Tedford teams and they should have a strong offense.
Oregon Ducks
Chris (Prediction #1): At first I was skeptical about Oregon's contention (in the Pac-10 and nationally) without returning 2-year starter Jeremiah Masoli, but then a familiar name appeared in the starting lineup...one Nate Costa. Costa may not be a Masoli (which at this point we can't take as completely a bad thing, right?), but with all of the skill position talent at his disposal, and a completely intact offensive line, I have faith in Costa. Add in 8 returning starters on an improving defense and your have your conference champs. Oh wait, and did I mention LAMICHAEL JAMES!? How many guys in recent history can you remember who didn't start the season and finished with 1,500 yards rushing. Yeah, that's right, THIS GUY! They will ride on James' coattails all year, and James (who quickly became one of the nation's best) will lead them to Pac-10 glory.
Ross (Prediction: #1): Even without Masoli, this team is loaded on offense (9 returning starters, including the entire offensive line) and features a lot of returning faces on defense, too. If they get decent performance out of whoever emerges at QB, they should again be very, very good. The one concern: the schedule has them going to USC, Cal, and Oregon State, three difficult road games.
Oregon State Beavers
Chris (Prediction #4): The Rodgers' brothers are going to rewrite a lot of Oregon State records together. That doesn't necessarily equal Pac-10 contention, but if they stay healthy, there's no arguing that they can make a run at the Rose Bowl. The key will be sophomore quarterback Ryan Katz (assuming he's the starter). If the Rodgers' brothers have to drag him along for the whole ride, it's unlikely the Beavers will even crack the top half. But the offensive and defensive talent is such that if Katz is just efficient and the Beavers' staff plays not to lose (a risky way to play believe it or not) they should finish high enough to warrant a good bowl and season they can be proud of.
Ross (Prediction #2): Definite potential to be atop the league, given how much they return on offense (8 overall, including 4/5 of the offensive line and the marvelous Rodgers brothers) and the fact that Riley has developed into one of the most consistently good and reliable coaches in the Pac 10. They also have a fairly favorable schedule, with three of their top opponents (Cal, USC, Oregon) all coming to Corvallis. Breaking in a brand-new QB is a worry, though.
Stanford Cardinal
Chris (Prediction: #3): Even if the Cardinal lost Heisman Trophy candidate Toby Gerhart, they return the Pac-10's most efficient passer...yes, sophomore Andrew Luck...not that kid named Clausen. The Cardinal may have snuck up on some teams last year, but this year teams will be wary from the get-go. Luck will have to turn that efficiency into even more productivity after losing his backfield mate, and especially with a suspect defense, will have to win more shootouts this year than a year ago. But don't sleep on Coach Jim Harbaugh. He is almost ready to contend annually for the Pac-10 hardware.
Ross (Prediction #4): There are reasons not to like them, like their porous defense, the fact that their star player and leader (Toby Gerhart) is gone, and the fact that they have a slew of potentially difficult road games (@ Notre Dame, @ Oregon, @ Washington, @ Cal)... but they also have arguably the best QB in the conference (Andrew Luck) and he has a lot of weapons back and Harbaugh has done such an incredible job of turning that program around that it's hard to bet against him.
UCLA Bruins
Chris (Prediction: #8): The Bruins have improved under Rick Neuheisel, and enjoyed some tempered success. However, this group is too young to contend for anything and the upward trend will at least be put on hold this year. That doesn't mean watching that other team from Los Angeles couldn't be exciting too. For one thing, the Bruins boast preseason All-Conference pick Rahim Moore, who last year picked off a PHENOMENAL 10 passes! $20 on him not topping that total this year to anyone who will take it, but if he does, doesn't that validate my they can be exciting claim?
Ross (Prediction: #8): They return a lot on offense and another year with Norm Chow should only help them progress on that front; unfortunately, they're going to need to outscore most of their opponents because they return little on defense and just lost one of their best players (Datone Jones) to an injury.
USC Trojans
Chris (Prediction: #2)- Many have the Trojans winning the Pac-10, especially now with Jeremiah Masoli moving on to Ole Miss, but I'm not sold. First off, how will the Trojans perform under the damper of not being able to play in the postseason? What about the other restrictions imposed by the NCAA? What about their enigmatic new head coach Lane Kiffin, who although has shown some impressive recruiting tactics, has yet to prove himself to be a great coach. Or how about their savior of a quarterback? You know, the kid who sort of kind of did something that was almost amazing but not really (beating Ohio State by giving the ball to Joe McKnight on pass plays to pad his stats on that final drive). Also, as a Pac-10 assistant correctly pointed out, Barkley didn't really improve with time. He makes too many mistakes, as was highlighted in his senior year of high school when he threw more picks than TD's...yet still managed to be a top prospect. Add to that the Trojans numbers last year (especially offensively where they struggled mightily for USC standards) and their sub-par defensive stats, and you've got the classic case of over-hyped team! The only reason that I am ranking them this high is that yes they are USC, and yes they have talent, especially at running back. If they can utilize their running backs' talent, get Matt Barkley to start throwing to his teammates and improve upon what is likely to be the worst SC defense of the last ten years, they have a chance to even be #1 in the Pac-10 next year. But any injuries become truly perilous, because their two-deep is just slathered with freshmen.
Ross (Prediction: #3): The bottom is going to drop out soon enough, but in the meantime they still have quite a bit of talent in the two-deeps and the ability to play the "us against the world" card while it's still fresh. On the other hand, Kiffin's track record as a HC isn't exactly great, they have a few tricky road games (@ Stanford, @ Oregon State), and this team will have a lot of distractions to try and overcome.
Washington Huskies
Chris (Prediction: #5): Despite not buying into the Jake Locker is the best quarterback in America circus (he's very good, but at least on the college level he's a poor man's Tebow...which pains me to say), it is impossible to ignore the offensive firepower they return. Add in what should be an improved defense, and you've got a team destined to finish in the top half of the conference.
Ross (Prediction: #7): The Huskies have a lot back on both sides of the ball (10 on offense, 8 on defense), good coaching, and made a lot of progress last year. A higher finish certainly wouldn't be a big surprise; I'm holding off until I see them win a few more games and prove that they can get over the hump. They're right on the cusp, though.
Washington State Cougars
Chris (Prediction: #10): Not very many people know how bad the Cougars were last year, because in an improved Pac-10 there was plenty of good to focus in on...which left the magnifying glass off the Cougars at the bottom. Not only did they not win a Pac-10 game, going 0-9, the Cougars failed to score 20 points on any team not named SMU...which represented their one win on the season. The Cougars ranked last in the Pac-10 in every major offensive and defensive category, and save passing offense (which ranked 100th nationally), they finished every major offensive or defensive category ranked below 115. The team brings back 11 starters total. A total which doesn't include their leading passer, rusher, or a returning punter or kicker. You can look at that one of two ways...the first, it's a lot of new blood that can possibly improve upon their dismal showing from a year ago. The second way...it's going to be an even rougher season in the basement of the Pac-10. I tend to side with the second one.
Ross (Prediction: #10): Someday they'll be good again. Probably. Maybe. In any event, it ain't happening this year. Their goal should be getting their average margin of defeat under 30 ppg -- then they can start thinking about inching towards respectability again.
CFBZ Predicted Pac-10 Finish
1. Oregon Ducks
2. Oregon State Beavers
3. USC Trojans
4. Stanford Cardinal
5. Washington Huskies
6. Arizona Wildcats
7. California Golden Bears
8. UCLA Bruins
9. Arizona State Wildcats
10. Washington State Cougars
Oregon 10-3 (8-1)
Arizona 8-5 (6-3)
Oregon State 8-5 (6-3)
Stanford 8-5 (6-3)
USC 9-4 (5-4)
California 8-5 (5-4)
Washington 5-7 (4-5)
UCLA 7-6 (3-6)
Arizona State 4-8 (2-7)
Washington State 1-11 (0-9)
Returning Leaders: Passing
Kevin Riley, Cal, Sr (209 of 382 for 2850 yds, 18 TD, 8 INT)
Jake Locker, Washington, Sr (230 of 395 for 2800, 21 TD, 11 INT)
Matt Barkley, USC, Soph (211 of 352 for 2735, 15 TD, 14 INT)
Andrew Luck, Stanford, Soph (162 of 288 for 2575, 13 TD, 4 INT)
Nick Foles, Arizona, Jr (257 of 400 for 2465, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
LaMichael James, Oregon, Soph (230 carries for 1546 yds, 14 TD)
Jacquizz Rodgers, OSU, Jr (273 carries for 1440 yds, 21 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Chris Polk, Washington, Jr (226 carries for 1113 yds, 5 TD, 4.9 ypc)
Shane Vereen, Cal, Jr (183 carries for 952 yds, 12 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
James Rodgers, OSU, Sr (91 rec for 1034 yds, 9 TD, 7.0 rec/game)
Jacquizz Rodgers, OSU, Jr (78 rec for 522 yds, 1 TD, 6.0 rec/game)
Ryan Whalen, Stanford, Sr (57 rec for 926 yds, 4 TD, 4.4 rec/game)
Jeff Maehl, Oregon, Sr (53 rec for 696 yds, 6 TD, 4.1 rec/game)
Jermaine Kearse, Washington, Jr (50 rec for 866 yds, 8 TD)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Mike Mohamed, Cal, Sr, LB (111 total, 8.54 tackles/game)
John Boyett, Oregon, Soph, S (90 total, 6.92 tackles/game)
Mason Foster, Washington, Sr, LB (85 total, 7.08 tackles/game)
Alex Hoffman-Ellis, Wash St, Jr, LB (84 total, 7.64 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Kenny Rowe, Oregon, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ricky Elmore, Arizona, Sr, DE (10.5)
Nick Perry, USC, Soph, DE (9.0)
Thomas Keiser, Stanford, Jr, DE (8.0)
Cameron Jordan, Cal, Sr, DE (8.0)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Rahim Moore, UCLA, Jr, S (10 interceptions)
Trevin Wade, Arizona, Jr, CB (5)
Talmadge Jackson, Oregon, Sr, CB (4)
Akeem Ayers, UCLA, Jr, LB (4)
Around the Interweb
Who is your pick to win the Pac-10?
Scout.com's Oregon State site BeaverFootball.com:
It's hard not to pick Oregon, they have so much coming back. But the quarterback is so pivotal to that offense and team and Jeremiah Masoli had it down to a science. But with Masoli running afoul of the law and having been kicked off the team, the Ducks I think may falter in the chase for the crown. In the end, USC, allow they can't go to a bowl, finishes atop the Pac-10 standings.
Anthony from the USC based blog The Trojan Empire:
With 7 teams receiving first-place votes from the media, parity is evident in the Pac 10. I'm going to stray from the popular pick, which is Oregon, and choose the Beavers of Oregon State. Mike Riley's teams are notorious for slow starts, and have a difficult slate to begin the season, but once they enter Pac 10 play, they will entertain two of the conference favorites at home (USC, Oregon), while also welcoming the Golden Bears. Oregon appears a a world-beater at home, but no so much away from Autzen. USC has lost the last two games played in Corvallis, and if not for late Reggie Bush heroics, there would have been a third.
UCLA based blog The Trojan Haters Club:
One thing’s for sure – usc will not be representing the Conference in the Postseason this year. Even with all the defections, Lane Kiffin — a mediocre Head Coach at best — still has more talent on his roster than anyone else. But usc’s ban leaves Oregon in the driver’s seat to play in the Rose Bowl Game, even without dynamic stoner QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks seemed like the Class of the Pac-10 last season.
Breaking Down The Pac-10
Arizona Wildcats
Chris (Prediction: #7): The only reasons I have Arizona falling this far is that I'm not sold on the offense's ability to win shootout games in this league. The offense is perfectly adequate, but adequate won't do it in a league this stacked offensively. Also there are some questions defensively, as the Wildcats only return 4 starters from a pretty good defense a year ago, and will also have to deal with switching to a completely different scheme. This all adds up to not being a contender for the Pac-10 title.
Ross (Prediction: #6): They lose a ton on defense (7 starters), return a ton on offense (8 starters), lose both coordinators... but they have a favorable schedule (5 conference home games and two of the conference road games are winnable ones @ UCLA and @ Washington State). If you wanted to swap them with Washington, I wouldn't argue.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Chris (Prediction: #9): Offensively the Sun Devils will struggle...but not as much as most people think. Who can forget that Steven Threet was adequate at Michigan two years ago before transferring away from Rich Rod's option heavy spread? Threet may not be the Sun Devils' savior in 2010, but 2011 may be a different story, especially if linebacking sensation Vontaze Burfict sticks around for the party. The Sun Devils' 2010 storyline: O will struggle and D will be good...not 2009 good, but good.
Ross (Prediction #9): LB Vontaze Burfict is one of the best players in the league. Unfortunately, his teammates kinda suck.
California Golden Bears
Chris (Prediction: #6): Separating the teams in the middle of the Pac-10 is like choosing the hottest girl at a Curves...in other words, it's difficult and extremely agonizing. To pick Cal over Arizona, I have to believe that Cal's pass defense will improve drastically (despite only returning one starter and probably starting a freshman). I don't, but in a quarterback's league, no guy has more experience than Kevin Riley. Riley will use that experience to exploit Pac-10 secondaries alongside one of the nation's best up-and-coming running backs in Shane Vereen. Also, Jeff Tedford coached teams play too well for the Bears to fall any further.
Ross (Prediction: #5): This seems to be in the default range that Cal is settling into under Tedford: good, but not great. Kevin Riley's back for a third year as starter, but he's shown little that makes you think he could lead them to the promised land. Still, the bottom rarely falls out on Tedford teams and they should have a strong offense.
Oregon Ducks
Chris (Prediction #1): At first I was skeptical about Oregon's contention (in the Pac-10 and nationally) without returning 2-year starter Jeremiah Masoli, but then a familiar name appeared in the starting lineup...one Nate Costa. Costa may not be a Masoli (which at this point we can't take as completely a bad thing, right?), but with all of the skill position talent at his disposal, and a completely intact offensive line, I have faith in Costa. Add in 8 returning starters on an improving defense and your have your conference champs. Oh wait, and did I mention LAMICHAEL JAMES!? How many guys in recent history can you remember who didn't start the season and finished with 1,500 yards rushing. Yeah, that's right, THIS GUY! They will ride on James' coattails all year, and James (who quickly became one of the nation's best) will lead them to Pac-10 glory.
Ross (Prediction: #1): Even without Masoli, this team is loaded on offense (9 returning starters, including the entire offensive line) and features a lot of returning faces on defense, too. If they get decent performance out of whoever emerges at QB, they should again be very, very good. The one concern: the schedule has them going to USC, Cal, and Oregon State, three difficult road games.
Oregon State Beavers
Chris (Prediction #4): The Rodgers' brothers are going to rewrite a lot of Oregon State records together. That doesn't necessarily equal Pac-10 contention, but if they stay healthy, there's no arguing that they can make a run at the Rose Bowl. The key will be sophomore quarterback Ryan Katz (assuming he's the starter). If the Rodgers' brothers have to drag him along for the whole ride, it's unlikely the Beavers will even crack the top half. But the offensive and defensive talent is such that if Katz is just efficient and the Beavers' staff plays not to lose (a risky way to play believe it or not) they should finish high enough to warrant a good bowl and season they can be proud of.
Ross (Prediction #2): Definite potential to be atop the league, given how much they return on offense (8 overall, including 4/5 of the offensive line and the marvelous Rodgers brothers) and the fact that Riley has developed into one of the most consistently good and reliable coaches in the Pac 10. They also have a fairly favorable schedule, with three of their top opponents (Cal, USC, Oregon) all coming to Corvallis. Breaking in a brand-new QB is a worry, though.
Stanford Cardinal
Chris (Prediction: #3): Even if the Cardinal lost Heisman Trophy candidate Toby Gerhart, they return the Pac-10's most efficient passer...yes, sophomore Andrew Luck...not that kid named Clausen. The Cardinal may have snuck up on some teams last year, but this year teams will be wary from the get-go. Luck will have to turn that efficiency into even more productivity after losing his backfield mate, and especially with a suspect defense, will have to win more shootouts this year than a year ago. But don't sleep on Coach Jim Harbaugh. He is almost ready to contend annually for the Pac-10 hardware.
Ross (Prediction #4): There are reasons not to like them, like their porous defense, the fact that their star player and leader (Toby Gerhart) is gone, and the fact that they have a slew of potentially difficult road games (@ Notre Dame, @ Oregon, @ Washington, @ Cal)... but they also have arguably the best QB in the conference (Andrew Luck) and he has a lot of weapons back and Harbaugh has done such an incredible job of turning that program around that it's hard to bet against him.
UCLA Bruins
Chris (Prediction: #8): The Bruins have improved under Rick Neuheisel, and enjoyed some tempered success. However, this group is too young to contend for anything and the upward trend will at least be put on hold this year. That doesn't mean watching that other team from Los Angeles couldn't be exciting too. For one thing, the Bruins boast preseason All-Conference pick Rahim Moore, who last year picked off a PHENOMENAL 10 passes! $20 on him not topping that total this year to anyone who will take it, but if he does, doesn't that validate my they can be exciting claim?
Ross (Prediction: #8): They return a lot on offense and another year with Norm Chow should only help them progress on that front; unfortunately, they're going to need to outscore most of their opponents because they return little on defense and just lost one of their best players (Datone Jones) to an injury.
USC Trojans
Chris (Prediction: #2)- Many have the Trojans winning the Pac-10, especially now with Jeremiah Masoli moving on to Ole Miss, but I'm not sold. First off, how will the Trojans perform under the damper of not being able to play in the postseason? What about the other restrictions imposed by the NCAA? What about their enigmatic new head coach Lane Kiffin, who although has shown some impressive recruiting tactics, has yet to prove himself to be a great coach. Or how about their savior of a quarterback? You know, the kid who sort of kind of did something that was almost amazing but not really (beating Ohio State by giving the ball to Joe McKnight on pass plays to pad his stats on that final drive). Also, as a Pac-10 assistant correctly pointed out, Barkley didn't really improve with time. He makes too many mistakes, as was highlighted in his senior year of high school when he threw more picks than TD's...yet still managed to be a top prospect. Add to that the Trojans numbers last year (especially offensively where they struggled mightily for USC standards) and their sub-par defensive stats, and you've got the classic case of over-hyped team! The only reason that I am ranking them this high is that yes they are USC, and yes they have talent, especially at running back. If they can utilize their running backs' talent, get Matt Barkley to start throwing to his teammates and improve upon what is likely to be the worst SC defense of the last ten years, they have a chance to even be #1 in the Pac-10 next year. But any injuries become truly perilous, because their two-deep is just slathered with freshmen.
Ross (Prediction: #3): The bottom is going to drop out soon enough, but in the meantime they still have quite a bit of talent in the two-deeps and the ability to play the "us against the world" card while it's still fresh. On the other hand, Kiffin's track record as a HC isn't exactly great, they have a few tricky road games (@ Stanford, @ Oregon State), and this team will have a lot of distractions to try and overcome.
Washington Huskies
Chris (Prediction: #5): Despite not buying into the Jake Locker is the best quarterback in America circus (he's very good, but at least on the college level he's a poor man's Tebow...which pains me to say), it is impossible to ignore the offensive firepower they return. Add in what should be an improved defense, and you've got a team destined to finish in the top half of the conference.
Ross (Prediction: #7): The Huskies have a lot back on both sides of the ball (10 on offense, 8 on defense), good coaching, and made a lot of progress last year. A higher finish certainly wouldn't be a big surprise; I'm holding off until I see them win a few more games and prove that they can get over the hump. They're right on the cusp, though.
Washington State Cougars
Chris (Prediction: #10): Not very many people know how bad the Cougars were last year, because in an improved Pac-10 there was plenty of good to focus in on...which left the magnifying glass off the Cougars at the bottom. Not only did they not win a Pac-10 game, going 0-9, the Cougars failed to score 20 points on any team not named SMU...which represented their one win on the season. The Cougars ranked last in the Pac-10 in every major offensive and defensive category, and save passing offense (which ranked 100th nationally), they finished every major offensive or defensive category ranked below 115. The team brings back 11 starters total. A total which doesn't include their leading passer, rusher, or a returning punter or kicker. You can look at that one of two ways...the first, it's a lot of new blood that can possibly improve upon their dismal showing from a year ago. The second way...it's going to be an even rougher season in the basement of the Pac-10. I tend to side with the second one.
Ross (Prediction: #10): Someday they'll be good again. Probably. Maybe. In any event, it ain't happening this year. Their goal should be getting their average margin of defeat under 30 ppg -- then they can start thinking about inching towards respectability again.
CFBZ Predicted Pac-10 Finish
1. Oregon Ducks
2. Oregon State Beavers
3. USC Trojans
4. Stanford Cardinal
5. Washington Huskies
6. Arizona Wildcats
7. California Golden Bears
8. UCLA Bruins
9. Arizona State Wildcats
10. Washington State Cougars
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Pre-Season Preview: Arizona Wildcats
2009 Record: 8-5 (6-3 in Pac-10)
2009 Bowl: Holiday Bowl (lost to Nebraska 33-0)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: Not Ranked
Head Coach: Mike Stoops (33-39 at Arizona, 23-29 in Pac-10)
Non-Conference Schedule: at Toledo (9/3), Citadel (9/11), Iowa (9/18)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 27.4 points per game (5th in Pac-10)
Rushing Yards/Game: 159 (5th in Pac-10)
Passing Yards/Game: 225 (3rd in Pac-10)
Total Yards/Game: 384 (6th in Pac-10)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 23.9 points per game (5th in Pac-10)
Rushing Yards/Game: 120 (4th in Pac-10)
Passing Yards/Game: 201 (3rd in Pac-10)
Total Yards/Game: 322 (2nd in Pac-10)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: -0.08 per game (8th in Pac-10)
Penalties: 43 yards per game (1st in Pac-10, 16th in Nation)
Returning Starters
Offense: 8
Defense: 4
Kicker/Punter: 2
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Nick Foles, Jr (257 of 400 for 2465 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT, 205 ypg)
Rushing: RB Keola Antolin, Jr (114 carries for 638 yds, 4 TD, 5.6 ypc, 49 ypg)
Rushing: RB Nic Grigsby, Sr (79 carries for 567 yds, 5 TD, 7.1 ypc, 56 ypg
Receiving: WR Juron Criner, Jr (45 rec, 581 yds, 9 TD, 3.5 rec/game)
Receiving: WR David Roberts, Jr (43 rec, 410 yds, 1 TD, 3.3 rec/game)
Receiving: WR Delashaun Dean, Sr (42 rec, 396 yds, 2 TD, 3.2 rec/game)
Tackles: CB Trevin Wade, Jr (71)
Sacks: DE Ricky Elmore, Sr (10.5)
Interceptions: CB Trevin Wade, Jr (5)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #38
Phil Steele #25
Pre-Snap Read: #46
Sporting News: #35
2010 Pre-Season Pac-10 Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #5
Phil Steele: #3 (tie with California)
Bowl Predictions:
Athlon Sports: Sun Bowl (vs. North Carolina)
Phil Steele: Holiday Bowl (vs. Texas Tech)
Arizona quietly finished in a tie for second in the Pac-10 last year. Their biggest loss in conference was an 8 point loss to California and they posted good wins against Oregon State, Stanford and USC. Unfortunately, Arizona finished the season by getting blown out by Nebraska 33-0. Maybe after that long break thinking about that game they will come back with a vengeance in the wide open Pac-10. We talked to Gary Randazzo of the Wildcat Sports Report to find out what he thought about Arizona's chances in 2010.
What are the biggest strengths and biggest weaknesses of the Wildcats?
Strengths: Pick an offensive unit and a case can be made for its strength. Arizona’s quarterback situation is the best it’s been since Keith Smith and Ortege Jenkins used a two-quarterback system to help Arizona (11-1) finish No. 5 in the final AP Poll in 1998. It’s taken co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh nearly four years to develop depth among his big uglies, but the hard work and patience has paid off in back-to-back bowl seasons. The OL is poised to really shine in 2010, especially with 6’6, 325-pound Adam Grant earning a sixth year of eligibility and returning 1st Team Pac-10 center Colin Baxter leading the way. The Arizona running backs are incredibly experienced and feature versatility with speed backs Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin opposite two bruising tailbacks in Greg Nwoko (6’2 228 lbs.) and Taimi Tutogi (6’1 258 lbs.). The wide receiver unit is also strong despite the loss of senior receiver Delashaun Dean for the season (violation of team rule). Juron Criner has the skills to be among the top Pac-10 wide outs, and he’ll be surrounded by other talented pass catchers in William “Bug” Wright, David Roberts, Travis Cobb and transfer Gino Crump. The offensive talent doesn’t stop there, though. Last season, Wright led the Pac-10 with a 17.5 average on punt returns while Cobb finished second in the conference to Stanford’s Chris Owusu (31.5) in kickoff returns with an average of 25.4 per return. Add in Alex Zendejas’ 17-of-22 on field goals with a long of 47, plus a game-winner against rival Arizona State and the special teams unit should also be strong.
Weaknesses: It’s easy to point to the linebacker unit as a weakness, but JUCO transfers Derek Earls and Paul Vassallo each had very strong spring camps, which diminished some of the worry the Arizona coaching staff had in losing all three starters from last year’s squad. The real mystery lies within the Arizona secondary. Longtime Arizona starters Devin Ross, Cam Nelson and nickel back Corey Hall are gone to graduation. Despite returning a host of athletes with playing experience, the combination of a pass-happy Pac-10 with quality quarterbacks, Arizona’s new secondary coach Greg Brown, and overall youth will pose a challenge for the Arizona secondary. If the unit, led by the talented Trevin Wade, holds up, then the sky could be the limit for the Wildcats in 2010-11. However, if Arizona can’t get off the field on third-and-long (something they struggled with in 2009-10), then Arizona could be looking at a lot of 35-31 losses.
Arizona has a date against Big Ten contender Iowa in the third game of the year. Iowa is a Top 15 team in most preseason polls. What do you hope to learn about Arizona in this game and what do you view as a successful outing?
A successful outing would be an Arizona victory. The Wildcats are 14-5 at home the last three seasons, and four of those losses came to Top 25 teams. That being said, a victory over Iowa won’t come easy. The Hawkeyes physically dominated Arizona in Iowa City last year at the beginning of the year. Arizona was again physically dominated by Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl to conclude its season. Arizona will need to match Iowa’s intensity along the line of scrimmage and win the battle of the trenches. If they get pushed around again, it won’t bode well for the Wildcats in later games against physical teams like Oregon State, Stanford, USC and Oregon. However, if they match or best Iowa’s toughness and pull out a win it could be the jumping-off point for a magical season.
What team on the schedule do you want to beat the most?
The easy answer is every game is as important as the last. However, Mike Stoops came to Arizona with one thing in mind; beat USC. Stoops modeled many of Arizona’s philosophies around those adopted by the Trojans. After losing 49-9 against USC in Stoops’ first season as head coach (2004), the Wildcats slowly but surely began to narrow the losing margin to the Men of Troy (21, 17, 7 and 7) before finally knocking off the Trojans 21-17 in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum last year. This season’s November 13 home date against USC is a huge game for Arizona, but admittedly will lose some of its shine if the Wildcats struggle through September and October games. USC aside, the biggest game on the calendar every year for Arizona is against its arch-rival, ASU. The Territorial Cup is the oldest traveling trophy, but more importantly, the rivalry is often recognized as the most hated in the country. The love-loss between these schools is literally non-existent and falling to the Sun Devils to conclude its regular season on December 2 would be absolutely devastating to all things Arizona.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
Defensive tackle Sione Tuihalamaka (6’2, 280 lbs. redshirt freshman) and free safety Adam Hall (6’4, 210 lbs. sophomore). Tuihalamaka is incredibly skilled as a down lineman and will have the opportunity to serve as an anchor along the line of scrimmage alongside Lolamana Mikaele (projected starter at nose tackle). The Wildcats have extremely talented defensive ends in Ricky Elmore, Brooks Reed, and DE back-ups Apaiata Tuihalamake and De’Aundre Reed. It will be a priority for opposing offenses to contain Arizona’s ends, which could free up Tuihalamaka to go one-on-one in the middle. If he plays well, fans will know his name in due time. Another promising player is Hall. Hall has the makings of a great defensive back. He’s big, explosive, and can run with the wind. The Wildcats have had some big hitters from the safety positions throughout their history and Hall has the potential to become the next great safety in Arizona lore. What’s significant of Hall is he’s a local Tucson product that fans are pining to see in down and distance situations.
Who is the best player on the team?
Cornerback Trevin Wade is a pure talent and will undoubtedly follow 2007-08 Thorpe Award winner Antoine Cason into the NFL. Receiver Juron Criner is another future NFL product that has all the tools, especially size and a knack for making the “big” play. However, the best player on the team is center Colin Baxter who is a stabilizing force in the middle of Arizona’s offensive line.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach its full capability?
Arizona’s down linemen will be asked to clog the middle for Arizona’s defensive line, allowing their talented ends to operate one-on-one on the edges and make plays in the backfield. Offensively, quarterback Nick Foles needs to have a big season for Arizona to reach its full potential. After exploding onto the scene in starts against Oregon State, Washington and Stanford, Foles’ incredibly hot start tapered off. Foles is a “gamer” and with 10 starts under his belt, a true QB coach in Frank Scelfo now working with him, and a full offseason of repetitions, Foles has the potential to take things to the next level this season.
Who is the top newcomer that can make an impact this year?
It’s a four horse race between Derek Earls, Paul Vassallo, Willie Mobley and true freshman defensive back Marquis Flowers. All should make an impact on some level, but since the first two names mentioned are projected starters the onus is on them to make a serious impact in the middle of Arizona’s defense.
Who is your pick to take the Pac-10 this year and are there any teams flying under the radar that might be able to make a run at the Pac-10 championship?
The Pac-10 is wide open, but Oregon appears to be the team to beat despite losing its quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks return 16 starters (8 offense/8 defense) and feature one element across its entire roster that wins football games in the Pac-10; speed, speed, speed. The one thing that could derail the Ducks though is a five-game conference road schedule and NOT having Masoli. Masoli made some incredibly clutch plays for the Ducks en route to last year’s Rose Bowl and it’ll be up to their new quarterback to find ways to make plays when they matter most.
In regards to an “under the radar” team to win the conference championship, Arizona can get it done. Honestly, I wouldn’t consider Arizona an under the radar team, but ever since the Wildcats were picked to finish 5th by the Pac-10 media, they suddenly qualify. Arizona’s offense will put up points, and it’s difficult to ever underestimate a Mike Stoops-coached defense. Co-defensive coordinator Tim Kish is an excellent strategist and new defensive backs coach and fellow defensive coordinate Greg Brown plans to introduce some new, more aggressive schemes to Arizona’s traditional Cover 2 defense. If the stars align, defensively, Arizona is potent enough in other areas (offense and special teams) to make a serious run. Also, consider that Arizona only has four conference road games and one of those is against Washington State and this year could become the year of the Wildcat.
Gut feeling on the team’s final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
Truth be told, Arizona always seems to find a way to muck up a good situation. By way of example, a critical missed field goal and Oregon’s ability to convert in third-and-fourth-and long situations against Arizona in Tucson last season ultimately cost the Wildcats the Rose Bowl. The same could easily happen again this season, especially if Arizona’s back seven struggles against Pac-10 QBs not named Jake Locker, Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley. 9-3 seems to be a fair final record, but things can go south quick with a bad loss to Iowa. However, a win over Iowa would likely give Arizona its first perfect non-conference record under Stoops (assuming victories over Toledo and The Citadel) and could set the tone for a very strong campaign that exceeds expectations.
For all things Arizona Wildcats, please visit www.WildcatSportsReport.com for 24/7 team coverage and recruiting news.
Previous Pac-10 Previews:
Arizona State Sun Devils
California Golden Bears
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Stanford Cardinal
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars
Next Up: North Carolina State Wolfpack
Previous Pre-Season Previews
ACC- Boston College Eagles, Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins, Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Big 12- Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Texas Longhorns, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Syracuse Orange, UConn Huskies, USF Bulls, West Virginia Mountaineers
Big Ten- Illinois Fighting Illini, Michigan Wolverines, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Northwestern Wildcats, Ohio State Buckeyes, Purdue Boilermakers
C-USA- Houston Cougars, SMU Mustangs, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
Independent- Army Black Knights, Navy Midshipmen, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
MAC- Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Central Michigan Chippewas, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets
MWC- BYU Cougars, Colorado State Rams, UNLV Rebels, Utah Utes
SEC- Auburn Tigers, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky Wildcats, LSU Tigers, Mississippi Rebels, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
Sun Belt- FIU Golden Panthers, North Texas Mean Green, Troy Trojans
WAC- Boise State Broncos, Fresno State Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, New Mexico State Aggies
2009 Bowl: Holiday Bowl (lost to Nebraska 33-0)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: Not Ranked
Head Coach: Mike Stoops (33-39 at Arizona, 23-29 in Pac-10)
Non-Conference Schedule: at Toledo (9/3), Citadel (9/11), Iowa (9/18)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 27.4 points per game (5th in Pac-10)
Rushing Yards/Game: 159 (5th in Pac-10)
Passing Yards/Game: 225 (3rd in Pac-10)
Total Yards/Game: 384 (6th in Pac-10)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 23.9 points per game (5th in Pac-10)
Rushing Yards/Game: 120 (4th in Pac-10)
Passing Yards/Game: 201 (3rd in Pac-10)
Total Yards/Game: 322 (2nd in Pac-10)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: -0.08 per game (8th in Pac-10)
Penalties: 43 yards per game (1st in Pac-10, 16th in Nation)
Returning Starters
Offense: 8
Defense: 4
Kicker/Punter: 2
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Nick Foles, Jr (257 of 400 for 2465 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT, 205 ypg)
Rushing: RB Keola Antolin, Jr (114 carries for 638 yds, 4 TD, 5.6 ypc, 49 ypg)
Rushing: RB Nic Grigsby, Sr (79 carries for 567 yds, 5 TD, 7.1 ypc, 56 ypg
Receiving: WR Juron Criner, Jr (45 rec, 581 yds, 9 TD, 3.5 rec/game)
Receiving: WR David Roberts, Jr (43 rec, 410 yds, 1 TD, 3.3 rec/game)
Receiving: WR Delashaun Dean, Sr (42 rec, 396 yds, 2 TD, 3.2 rec/game)
Tackles: CB Trevin Wade, Jr (71)
Sacks: DE Ricky Elmore, Sr (10.5)
Interceptions: CB Trevin Wade, Jr (5)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #38
Phil Steele #25
Pre-Snap Read: #46
Sporting News: #35
2010 Pre-Season Pac-10 Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #5
Phil Steele: #3 (tie with California)
Bowl Predictions:
Athlon Sports: Sun Bowl (vs. North Carolina)
Phil Steele: Holiday Bowl (vs. Texas Tech)
Arizona quietly finished in a tie for second in the Pac-10 last year. Their biggest loss in conference was an 8 point loss to California and they posted good wins against Oregon State, Stanford and USC. Unfortunately, Arizona finished the season by getting blown out by Nebraska 33-0. Maybe after that long break thinking about that game they will come back with a vengeance in the wide open Pac-10. We talked to Gary Randazzo of the Wildcat Sports Report to find out what he thought about Arizona's chances in 2010.
What are the biggest strengths and biggest weaknesses of the Wildcats?
Strengths: Pick an offensive unit and a case can be made for its strength. Arizona’s quarterback situation is the best it’s been since Keith Smith and Ortege Jenkins used a two-quarterback system to help Arizona (11-1) finish No. 5 in the final AP Poll in 1998. It’s taken co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh nearly four years to develop depth among his big uglies, but the hard work and patience has paid off in back-to-back bowl seasons. The OL is poised to really shine in 2010, especially with 6’6, 325-pound Adam Grant earning a sixth year of eligibility and returning 1st Team Pac-10 center Colin Baxter leading the way. The Arizona running backs are incredibly experienced and feature versatility with speed backs Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin opposite two bruising tailbacks in Greg Nwoko (6’2 228 lbs.) and Taimi Tutogi (6’1 258 lbs.). The wide receiver unit is also strong despite the loss of senior receiver Delashaun Dean for the season (violation of team rule). Juron Criner has the skills to be among the top Pac-10 wide outs, and he’ll be surrounded by other talented pass catchers in William “Bug” Wright, David Roberts, Travis Cobb and transfer Gino Crump. The offensive talent doesn’t stop there, though. Last season, Wright led the Pac-10 with a 17.5 average on punt returns while Cobb finished second in the conference to Stanford’s Chris Owusu (31.5) in kickoff returns with an average of 25.4 per return. Add in Alex Zendejas’ 17-of-22 on field goals with a long of 47, plus a game-winner against rival Arizona State and the special teams unit should also be strong.
Weaknesses: It’s easy to point to the linebacker unit as a weakness, but JUCO transfers Derek Earls and Paul Vassallo each had very strong spring camps, which diminished some of the worry the Arizona coaching staff had in losing all three starters from last year’s squad. The real mystery lies within the Arizona secondary. Longtime Arizona starters Devin Ross, Cam Nelson and nickel back Corey Hall are gone to graduation. Despite returning a host of athletes with playing experience, the combination of a pass-happy Pac-10 with quality quarterbacks, Arizona’s new secondary coach Greg Brown, and overall youth will pose a challenge for the Arizona secondary. If the unit, led by the talented Trevin Wade, holds up, then the sky could be the limit for the Wildcats in 2010-11. However, if Arizona can’t get off the field on third-and-long (something they struggled with in 2009-10), then Arizona could be looking at a lot of 35-31 losses.
Arizona has a date against Big Ten contender Iowa in the third game of the year. Iowa is a Top 15 team in most preseason polls. What do you hope to learn about Arizona in this game and what do you view as a successful outing?
A successful outing would be an Arizona victory. The Wildcats are 14-5 at home the last three seasons, and four of those losses came to Top 25 teams. That being said, a victory over Iowa won’t come easy. The Hawkeyes physically dominated Arizona in Iowa City last year at the beginning of the year. Arizona was again physically dominated by Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl to conclude its season. Arizona will need to match Iowa’s intensity along the line of scrimmage and win the battle of the trenches. If they get pushed around again, it won’t bode well for the Wildcats in later games against physical teams like Oregon State, Stanford, USC and Oregon. However, if they match or best Iowa’s toughness and pull out a win it could be the jumping-off point for a magical season.
What team on the schedule do you want to beat the most?
The easy answer is every game is as important as the last. However, Mike Stoops came to Arizona with one thing in mind; beat USC. Stoops modeled many of Arizona’s philosophies around those adopted by the Trojans. After losing 49-9 against USC in Stoops’ first season as head coach (2004), the Wildcats slowly but surely began to narrow the losing margin to the Men of Troy (21, 17, 7 and 7) before finally knocking off the Trojans 21-17 in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum last year. This season’s November 13 home date against USC is a huge game for Arizona, but admittedly will lose some of its shine if the Wildcats struggle through September and October games. USC aside, the biggest game on the calendar every year for Arizona is against its arch-rival, ASU. The Territorial Cup is the oldest traveling trophy, but more importantly, the rivalry is often recognized as the most hated in the country. The love-loss between these schools is literally non-existent and falling to the Sun Devils to conclude its regular season on December 2 would be absolutely devastating to all things Arizona.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
Defensive tackle Sione Tuihalamaka (6’2, 280 lbs. redshirt freshman) and free safety Adam Hall (6’4, 210 lbs. sophomore). Tuihalamaka is incredibly skilled as a down lineman and will have the opportunity to serve as an anchor along the line of scrimmage alongside Lolamana Mikaele (projected starter at nose tackle). The Wildcats have extremely talented defensive ends in Ricky Elmore, Brooks Reed, and DE back-ups Apaiata Tuihalamake and De’Aundre Reed. It will be a priority for opposing offenses to contain Arizona’s ends, which could free up Tuihalamaka to go one-on-one in the middle. If he plays well, fans will know his name in due time. Another promising player is Hall. Hall has the makings of a great defensive back. He’s big, explosive, and can run with the wind. The Wildcats have had some big hitters from the safety positions throughout their history and Hall has the potential to become the next great safety in Arizona lore. What’s significant of Hall is he’s a local Tucson product that fans are pining to see in down and distance situations.
Who is the best player on the team?
Cornerback Trevin Wade is a pure talent and will undoubtedly follow 2007-08 Thorpe Award winner Antoine Cason into the NFL. Receiver Juron Criner is another future NFL product that has all the tools, especially size and a knack for making the “big” play. However, the best player on the team is center Colin Baxter who is a stabilizing force in the middle of Arizona’s offensive line.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach its full capability?
Arizona’s down linemen will be asked to clog the middle for Arizona’s defensive line, allowing their talented ends to operate one-on-one on the edges and make plays in the backfield. Offensively, quarterback Nick Foles needs to have a big season for Arizona to reach its full potential. After exploding onto the scene in starts against Oregon State, Washington and Stanford, Foles’ incredibly hot start tapered off. Foles is a “gamer” and with 10 starts under his belt, a true QB coach in Frank Scelfo now working with him, and a full offseason of repetitions, Foles has the potential to take things to the next level this season.
Who is the top newcomer that can make an impact this year?
It’s a four horse race between Derek Earls, Paul Vassallo, Willie Mobley and true freshman defensive back Marquis Flowers. All should make an impact on some level, but since the first two names mentioned are projected starters the onus is on them to make a serious impact in the middle of Arizona’s defense.
Who is your pick to take the Pac-10 this year and are there any teams flying under the radar that might be able to make a run at the Pac-10 championship?
The Pac-10 is wide open, but Oregon appears to be the team to beat despite losing its quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks return 16 starters (8 offense/8 defense) and feature one element across its entire roster that wins football games in the Pac-10; speed, speed, speed. The one thing that could derail the Ducks though is a five-game conference road schedule and NOT having Masoli. Masoli made some incredibly clutch plays for the Ducks en route to last year’s Rose Bowl and it’ll be up to their new quarterback to find ways to make plays when they matter most.
In regards to an “under the radar” team to win the conference championship, Arizona can get it done. Honestly, I wouldn’t consider Arizona an under the radar team, but ever since the Wildcats were picked to finish 5th by the Pac-10 media, they suddenly qualify. Arizona’s offense will put up points, and it’s difficult to ever underestimate a Mike Stoops-coached defense. Co-defensive coordinator Tim Kish is an excellent strategist and new defensive backs coach and fellow defensive coordinate Greg Brown plans to introduce some new, more aggressive schemes to Arizona’s traditional Cover 2 defense. If the stars align, defensively, Arizona is potent enough in other areas (offense and special teams) to make a serious run. Also, consider that Arizona only has four conference road games and one of those is against Washington State and this year could become the year of the Wildcat.
Gut feeling on the team’s final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
Truth be told, Arizona always seems to find a way to muck up a good situation. By way of example, a critical missed field goal and Oregon’s ability to convert in third-and-fourth-and long situations against Arizona in Tucson last season ultimately cost the Wildcats the Rose Bowl. The same could easily happen again this season, especially if Arizona’s back seven struggles against Pac-10 QBs not named Jake Locker, Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley. 9-3 seems to be a fair final record, but things can go south quick with a bad loss to Iowa. However, a win over Iowa would likely give Arizona its first perfect non-conference record under Stoops (assuming victories over Toledo and The Citadel) and could set the tone for a very strong campaign that exceeds expectations.
For all things Arizona Wildcats, please visit www.WildcatSportsReport.com for 24/7 team coverage and recruiting news.
Previous Pac-10 Previews:
Arizona State Sun Devils
California Golden Bears
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Stanford Cardinal
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars
Next Up: North Carolina State Wolfpack
Previous Pre-Season Previews
ACC- Boston College Eagles, Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins, Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Big 12- Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Texas Longhorns, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Syracuse Orange, UConn Huskies, USF Bulls, West Virginia Mountaineers
Big Ten- Illinois Fighting Illini, Michigan Wolverines, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Northwestern Wildcats, Ohio State Buckeyes, Purdue Boilermakers
C-USA- Houston Cougars, SMU Mustangs, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
Independent- Army Black Knights, Navy Midshipmen, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
MAC- Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Central Michigan Chippewas, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets
MWC- BYU Cougars, Colorado State Rams, UNLV Rebels, Utah Utes
SEC- Auburn Tigers, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky Wildcats, LSU Tigers, Mississippi Rebels, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
Sun Belt- FIU Golden Panthers, North Texas Mean Green, Troy Trojans
WAC- Boise State Broncos, Fresno State Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, New Mexico State Aggies
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
