2010 CFBZ Prediction: 6th Place in Big Ten
2010 Actual Finish: Tied for 7th Place in Big Ten (7-6, 3-5)
Northwestern finished just about where we thought they would this year. They beat up on some inferior opponents to start the season 5-0. Then they lost a game at home to a Purdue team that would finish 4-8. The Purdue loss was definitely their worst loss and stands out when looking at their season. After going 5-0 to start, Northwestern finished up 2-6 in their last 8. The high point of the season was beating Iowa, then ranked #13, 21-17. However, the win was bittersweet as the Wildcats also lost their dynamic QB Dan Persa in that game and without him finished the season 0-3 including losses in very winnable games against Illinois and Texas Tech. To find out more about the 2010 Northwestern Wildcats we reached out to the Northwestern blog Lake The Posts.
1. In our Pre-Season Preview you said 8-4 would be a very successful season and anything less than 7-5 would be a major disappointment. Northwestern finished 7-5 in the regular season (7-6 after the bowl). How do you feel now that the season is over? Was this season a success, a failure or somewhere in between?
Somewhere in between. Overall, a disappointment as we continued the nation's current longest bowl losing streak. I'm always one to not use injuries as an excuse as they are part of the game. I think NU's inability to still have the "put teams away" demeanor is the most disheartening. Clearly the emergence of Dan Persa was THE storyline of the season as 'Cats fans believe we have a legitimate Heisman candidate in 2011. Without Persa I shudder to think how far we would've fallen after 2009.
If I had to fairly go back in time and assess expectations for the 2010 season it would go something like this:
1) Confident at QB and skill position players b/c we've proven we can reload at both in our spread system. Fitz was very confident in Persa and we believed.
2010 post analysis - spot on and even bested expectations.
2) OL should be a strength as we return everyone and RB game has to be better since Fitz put it as a point of emphasis and he believed it was much improved.
2010 post analysis - pretty big disappointment. The OL struggled in pass protection and our run game, while OK by committee and overall stats really was a trial and error experiment.
3) Defense - some pretty big question marks as our secondary is the most suspect and replacing Corey Wootton at DE will be a tall task. LB should be good though.
2010 post analysis - biggest disappointment. NU gave up 550+ yards in total offense in last three games - all post-Persa and all losses. We ranked 97th in total defense and simply lacked the ability to do some very basic fundamentals like wrap guys up when we had them. Our pass rush was God-awful.
4) Special Teams - Our punting is pretty bad and kick coverage has been an Achilles heel but hopefully Stefan Demos will recover from the Outback Bowl and have a bang-up year.
2010 post analysis: aside from placekicking where Demos played injured all year and struggled on FGs and PATs, it was a night-and-day improvement. Brandon Williams was an unsung hero as a punter and our return game, ignited by Venric Mark shows huge promise for the future, while our kick coverage teams might be the most improved unit on the field.
2. What were your favorite memories from this season?
In no particular order, yet another "upset" against Iowa in a classic performance by Dan Persa, being up 21-0 at Penn State and having Sean McDonough gushing about the level of athleticism at NU.
3. Which players surprised you the most this season?
In general, I'm going to go with the true freshmen on this one. Fitz is a vocal proponent of redshirting so for him to play a true freshman it takes a lot. Fitz unleashed many frosh this season and they were impact players like WR Rashad Lawrence, WR Tony Jones, KR/PR/WR Venric Mark, RB Adonis Smith and DT Will Hampton. Its great to visibly see so much improved talent on the field and really bodes well for the future.
4. Who are you looking most forward to watching next season?
Obviously all eyes are on the recovery of Dan Persa which is reportedly ahead of schedule. I'm looking forward to Adonis Smith making a big jump at RB next year with a full off-season to really dive deep in to the system. We're all sitting back arms crossed waiting for someone, anyone to step up and lead this team on defense.
5. Northwestern has been placed in a division with Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota and Nebraska. Where do you think Northwestern fits in and what do they need to do this off-season to move up the ladder in their division?
I think most objective fans would look at the end of 2010 and say the projected order of finish for 2011 would be:
1)Nebraska
2)Iowa
3)MSU
4)Northwestern
5)Michigan
6)Minnesota
However, I'm not objective. With Persa returning as a senior captain, this has the makings of one of those once every 3-4 year jump years where NU actually competes for the top of the pack in Big Ten play. MSU and Iowa are both realistic to overtake in 2011 and a 2nd place finish isn't unrealistic. However, that will rely on us converting all of our productive offense into 7 points instead of 3 points on drives and of course a defense that can prove it can make a few stops in key spots. I put the bar of success season at 9-3 in the regular season and that includes a couple of non-conference gut check road games at Boston College and Army - both bowl teams in 2010. NU catches a schedule break in 2011 with no Ohio State, no Wisconsin (we also unfortunately lose Purdue) with 3 of the 8 opponents experiencing year one coaching changes (Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana). You can't ask for a better schedule.
Showing posts with label Northwestern Wildcats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Northwestern Wildcats. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Three Intriguing Match-Ups This Week
On Wednesday Ross posted his "Six Pack Games of the Week" previewing and predicted the six best games of the week. Looking at the schedule I can't help but feel that this week deserves a look a little bit deeper and here are 3 more match-ups out there in college football land to keep an eye on this week.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 Georgia (3-4, 2-3) AT Kentucky (4-3, 1-3) (7:00pm EST, CSS, ESPN 3) At first look this might not look like an interesting match-up but I feel it's the most intriguing match-up in the SEC this week other than LSU/Auburn. Kentucky is coming off of a win at South Carolina and Georgia is trying to resurrect it's season after blowout wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. This game is about one of these teams coming out of this game as a legit contender to the SEC East crown. This morning on Gameday both Kirk Herbstreit and Desmond Howard tabbed Georgia as the team that would come out of the pack of the SEC East and travel to Atlanta for the SEC East. I really need to know what they have been drinking. It's possible that Georgia can win the SEC East but there are so many things that have to happen (including Georgia beating Florida and Auburn). Now, onto the game....Georgia has throttled it's last two opponents. But they were Tennessee and Vandy and both were at home. Georgia has not won a game on the road this year (usually a trademark under Mark Richt). Kentucky comes into the game riding high after a home victory over South Carolina. Will the Kentucky team that beat the Gamecocks and came within 3 of beating Auburn show up or will we see the team that got dismantled by Florida 48-14 and lost to Ole Miss. I expect this to either be a blow-out win by Georgia (not likely but in the 3 games they've won they've won by an avg of 39 points) or a game that comes down to who has the ball last (Georgia's 4 losses have come by an avg of 8 points). Derrick Locke will not play for Kentucky so it's up to Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb against Todd Grantham and the Georgia defense.
THE PICK: Georgia 38 Kentucky 31
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 Georgia Tech (5-2, 3-1) AT Clemson (3-2, 1-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN) Georgia Tech has posted a 5-2 record by basically picking off teams that aren't very good (South Carolina State, Virginia, Wake Forest and Middle Tennessee are among their victims). That being said, Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech are very dangerous and this game is a critical game for both teams in the ACC. It's critical for Tech to win to have a shot at winning the Coastal with Virginia Tech and Miami coming up in the next two weeks and it's important for Clemson to win because they cannot afford another loss as FSU prepares to defend their spot on the top of the Atlantic division. This should be fun as it's a border-war and a must-win game for both teams. Expect to see a lot of offense. Georgia Tech has to be kicking themselves for losing to Kansas as they would be 6-1 and in the Top 20 if they had not have lost that game.
THE PICK: Georgia Tech 31 Clemson 27
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 #7 Michigan State (7-0, 3-0) AT Northwestern (5-1, 1-1) (12:00pm EST, ESPN) Michigan State is one of the pleasant surprises in college football this year. The play of the year might be the fake field goal to beat Notre Dame. The win over Wisconsin in Week 5 looks even bigger now that the Badgers have moved on to topple Ohio State. Northwestern has had two weeks to think about their 3 point loss to Purdue. I'm tempted to pick Northwestern but after looking at who they've beat I just can't bring myself to do it (Minnesota by 1, Central Michigan by 5, Vandy by 2, Rice and Illinois State). The Spartans move on and face Iowa next week in the huge Big 10 Showdown.
THE PICK: Michigan State 31 Northwestern 21
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 Georgia (3-4, 2-3) AT Kentucky (4-3, 1-3) (7:00pm EST, CSS, ESPN 3) At first look this might not look like an interesting match-up but I feel it's the most intriguing match-up in the SEC this week other than LSU/Auburn. Kentucky is coming off of a win at South Carolina and Georgia is trying to resurrect it's season after blowout wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. This game is about one of these teams coming out of this game as a legit contender to the SEC East crown. This morning on Gameday both Kirk Herbstreit and Desmond Howard tabbed Georgia as the team that would come out of the pack of the SEC East and travel to Atlanta for the SEC East. I really need to know what they have been drinking. It's possible that Georgia can win the SEC East but there are so many things that have to happen (including Georgia beating Florida and Auburn). Now, onto the game....Georgia has throttled it's last two opponents. But they were Tennessee and Vandy and both were at home. Georgia has not won a game on the road this year (usually a trademark under Mark Richt). Kentucky comes into the game riding high after a home victory over South Carolina. Will the Kentucky team that beat the Gamecocks and came within 3 of beating Auburn show up or will we see the team that got dismantled by Florida 48-14 and lost to Ole Miss. I expect this to either be a blow-out win by Georgia (not likely but in the 3 games they've won they've won by an avg of 39 points) or a game that comes down to who has the ball last (Georgia's 4 losses have come by an avg of 8 points). Derrick Locke will not play for Kentucky so it's up to Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb against Todd Grantham and the Georgia defense.
THE PICK: Georgia 38 Kentucky 31
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 Georgia Tech (5-2, 3-1) AT Clemson (3-2, 1-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN) Georgia Tech has posted a 5-2 record by basically picking off teams that aren't very good (South Carolina State, Virginia, Wake Forest and Middle Tennessee are among their victims). That being said, Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech are very dangerous and this game is a critical game for both teams in the ACC. It's critical for Tech to win to have a shot at winning the Coastal with Virginia Tech and Miami coming up in the next two weeks and it's important for Clemson to win because they cannot afford another loss as FSU prepares to defend their spot on the top of the Atlantic division. This should be fun as it's a border-war and a must-win game for both teams. Expect to see a lot of offense. Georgia Tech has to be kicking themselves for losing to Kansas as they would be 6-1 and in the Top 20 if they had not have lost that game.
THE PICK: Georgia Tech 31 Clemson 27
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 #7 Michigan State (7-0, 3-0) AT Northwestern (5-1, 1-1) (12:00pm EST, ESPN) Michigan State is one of the pleasant surprises in college football this year. The play of the year might be the fake field goal to beat Notre Dame. The win over Wisconsin in Week 5 looks even bigger now that the Badgers have moved on to topple Ohio State. Northwestern has had two weeks to think about their 3 point loss to Purdue. I'm tempted to pick Northwestern but after looking at who they've beat I just can't bring myself to do it (Minnesota by 1, Central Michigan by 5, Vandy by 2, Rice and Illinois State). The Spartans move on and face Iowa next week in the huge Big 10 Showdown.
THE PICK: Michigan State 31 Northwestern 21
Monday, August 23, 2010
Big Ten Preview
2009 Standings
Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 (7-1)
Iowa Hawkeyes 11-2 (6-2)
Penn State Nittany Lions 11-2 (6-2)
Wisconsin Badgers 10-3 (5-3)
Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 (5-3)
Michigan State Spartans 6-7 (4-4)
Purdue Boilermakers 5-7 (4-4)
Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 (3-5)
Illinois Fighting Illini 3-9 (2-6)
Michigan Wolverines 5-7 (1-7)
Indiana Hoosiers 4-8 (1-7)
Returning Leaders: Passing
Ben Chappell, Indiana, Sr (268 of 428 for 2942 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin, Sr (211 of 328 for 2705 yds, 16 TD, 11 INT)
Kirk Cousins, Mich St, Jr (198 of 328 for 2680 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Adam Weber, Minnesota, Sr (191 of 267 for 2582 yds, 13 TD, 15 INT)
Ricky Stanzi, Iowa, Sr (171 of 304 for 2417 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
John Clay, Wisconsin, Jr (287 carries for 1517 yds, 18 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Evan Royster, Penn State, Sr (205 carries for 1169 yds, 6 TD, 5.7 ypc)
Ralph Bolden, Purdue, Jr (200 carries for 935 yds, 9 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Adam Robinson, Iowa, Soph (181 carries for 834 yds, 5 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Terrelle Pryor, Ohio St, Jr (162 carries for 779 yds, 7 TD, 4.8 ypc)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Keith Smith, Purdue, Sr (91 rec for 1100 yds, 6 TD, 7.6 rec/game)
Tandon Doss, Indiana, Jr (77 rec for 962 yds, 5 TD, 6.4 rec/game)
Damarlo Belcher, Indiana, Jr (61 rec for 770 yds, 5 TD, 5.1 rec/game)
DeVier Posey, Ohio St, Jr (60 rec for 828 yds, 8 TD, 4.6 rec/game)
Nick Toon, Wisconsin, Jr (54 rec for 805 yds, 4 TD, 4.2 rec/game)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (154 total, 11.8 tackles/game)
Ross Homan, Ohio St, Sr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Ian Thomas, Indiana, Jr, LB (95 total, 7.9 tackles/game)
Brian Rolle, Ohio St, Sr, LB (94 total, 7.2 tackles/game)
Eric Gordon, Mich St, Sr, LB (93 total, 7.1 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Adrian Clayborn, Iowa, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue, Sr, DE (11.0)
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (9.0)
Cameron Heyward, Sr, DE (6.5)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Tyler Sash, Iowa, Jr, SS (6 interceptions)
Ross Homan, Ohio State, Sr, LB (5)
Brett Greenwood, Iowa, Jr, FS (3)
Brian Peters, Northwestern, Jr, SS (3)
Kyle Theret, Minnesota, Jr, S (3)
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 10 WITH THE ZEALOTS
Illinois Fighting Illini
Chris (Prediction: #10): Bloop de bloop, de bweedley deep de deep de derk. Ron Zook is A COACH! For those of you who don't watch South Park and didn't understand the Rob Schneider joke reference, you're missing out. But the point is, Zook is a person masquerading as a coach. The only thing that we have to do now is figure out how long the act is in town. Newsflash: It's over at the end of this year. Also, I'm not even going to explain why I think the Illini will finish in 10th. It's Ron Zook isn't it? That's explanation enough.
J Martin (Prediction: #9): I never bought into the Juice Williams hype, but even I was astounded at just how badly the Illini fell on their face in 2009. I’m even more astounded that Ron Zook still has a job. I guess you can line up Illinois next to Maryland and Colorado as the schools that don’t care about football. But they’re still going to field a team this year, so I guess I’ll talk about them. It’s looking like a total reboot on the offensive side of the ball with new OC Paul Petrino needing to find a new QB, a new top receiver, and a consistent rushing attack, which they’ve lacked since Rashard Mendenhall bolted. (I really wish Daniel Dufrene had panned out, if only because my “Dufrene! Party of 6!” TD call was a big party hit.) Defensively, they’re a really underwhelming group, even though they return a fair amount of experience. Basically, it’s just a lame duck team. And they have two lower division teams on their schedule, so they’ll have to win 7 to get to a bowl. And that ain’t happening. I think everybody here will be through and waiting for the new coach by November.
Ross (Prediction: #9): The good news is that they return 3/5 of the offensive line and one of the league's most underrated running backs (Mikel LeShoure) and don't have to deal with the Juice Williams Experience anymore. On the other hand, they're on yet another new offensive coordinator and Ron Zook is still there. There are a few more faces back on defense, but really the last two years have made it crystal clear that it doesn't matter how much returning talent the Illini have; so long as Ron Zook is there, he'll find a way to screw it up. Skipping Iowa and Wisconsin on the schedule is a plus, but a three-game stretch against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State could crush their season.
Indiana Hoosiers
Chris (Prediction: #9): Indiana should improve gradually on offense as the year goes along, bringing back a lot of key pieces to the puzzle in the way of skill position players and just enough on the offensive line. As for defense...yeah, well...there's always next year.
J Martin (Prediction: #10): Indiana finished 1-7 at the bottom of the conference for the second straight season in 2009, but if just a handful of plays had gone the other way, they could have easily been 3-5 and playing in a bowl game. Because of that, they seem to have the most upward momentum of the worst programs in the conference. Unfortunately, when you’re at the level of an Indiana, progress isn’t always a straight line because you don’t have the talent on deck to pick up where the departing seniors left off. This year, Indiana will be feeling that the most on the defensive side of the ball, where they lose 9 of their top 13 contributors from last season. Not that the Hoosiers were world-beaters on D last year, but they were experienced, plucky guys who helped Indiana win the turnover battle in 7 of their 12 games (while their quarterback was busy throwing 15 interceptions). So its definitely a rebuilding year on that side of the ball. And the offense is simply not good enough to make up the difference. Their 4 patsy non-conference games should allow them to match 09’s win total, but beyond that, the going gets tough. This won’t be the year they take a step forward.
Ross (Prediction: #10): Indiana should have a very strong offense, considering they return nine starters -- everyone but a pair of linemen. QB Ben Chappell was pretty productive a year ago and he has all of his primary targets back again this year. So that's good. But an already bad defense returns only four starters and loses virtually all of its best players, too. That's a problem. They'd better get their wins early, too, since the schedule has them close with games against Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue. A year ago Indiana was good enough to hang in there for a while against Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State; they were also bad enough to choke away all those games and get destroyed, 47-7, by Indiana. Their offense might be good enough to steal a game or two in the Big Ten, but they're going to need to score a lot of points to overcome their leaky defense.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Chris (Prediction: #2): My bonehead prediction of 2009: "Iowa does not stand a chance against GT's triple option in the bowl game. They're going to get throttled." Whoops...looks like I've got some splainin' to do on that one. 1. I was wrong. 2. Did I mention I was wrong? Like WAY wrong? So yeah, my bad in my failed attempt to pick against the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz is an amazing program coach. He might not be flashy or in a league of his own, but he knows how to year in and year out put a good football team on the field. Defensively they should be among the nation's best again, returning 8 starters on that side of the ball. The concern is on offense, while returning Ricky Stanzi and some skill position guys, they have a completely revamped O-line. This team was a couple of injuries away from an undefeated season, although if you look at the first game, this team was a point away from being beaten at home by Northern Iowa too. So I'm not ready to call a team that loses so much from a sub-par offense a world-beater. The truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes...and that's why I think that Iowa will finish second to Ohio State and its arsenal of weapons on offense.
J Martin (Prediction: #2): I love this Iowa team. On defense, they look set to pick up right where they left off in 2009. Yes, they lost two very good linebackers and a good cornerback, but virtually everyone else who made a significant contribution to last year's unit is back. On offense, I expect them to be better than in 09. The offensive line doesn't look as dominant on paper, but OL's are Kirk Ferentz's specialty, so I have no doubt he'll put a quality line on the field. The main area where they need improvement is turnovers, particularly Ricky Stanzi's interceptions. If he can cut his 09 number in half, the Hawkeyes will be tough to beat. And I think he can do that. I think when presumptive running back starter Jewel Hampton went down with a preseason injury, thrusting that job into the hands of a couple of freshmen, it put the offense into a situation they weren't entirely comfortable with. Namely, it required Stanzi to make more plays than maybe he needed to at that point in his development. This year Hampton is back, and those freshmen (who didn't play half bad as the season progressed) now have a year's worth of experience under their belts. That's going to create more of a comfort zone for Stanzi and allow him to be more efficient with the football. I have this team below Ohio State right now, but just by a hair. The schedule definitely plays into their favor as they get their top 3 conference opponents at home. Iowa just needs to prove to me that they can win the lesser games consistently, like say against Northwestern, right along with the big games before I ever put them at #1.
Ross (Prediction: #2): Everything hinges on the development of the offensive line and the team's ability to stay healthy. The defense looks absolutely loaded and the offense is strong at the skill positions. But if guys start going down, there isn't a huge amount of depth at most positions. And the offensive line is still a big question mark, given that they have to work in three new starters who haven't had a lot of experience thus far. Still, if the injury gods smile upon them and the offensive line develops into a respectable outfit, this is a team built to go far. They get all of their toughest foes at home and the schedule is fairly manageable. On the other hand, their history against OSU is absolutely miserable, which makes it hard to pick them over OSU for now.
Michigan Wolverines
Chris (Prediction: #5): So Michigan started the season 5-2, and because of his stellar play everyone was lapping up the Wolverines and true freshman quarterback Tate Forcier. EHHHHHHHHH! Wrong answer. Survey says...the Wolves lost their remaining five games, and with exception of Purdue, they weren't close. So Michigan, what's up? Let's talk. For one, I have absolute faith that Forcier is a gamer and that if anyone is going to elevate that program back to where it was, it's him. The way he played as a true freshman coming into a situation that bad and with such moxie, WOW! Matt Barkley played like dog excrement compared to Forcier, especially considering that Barkley had skill position talent galore around him. Also, how long can Rich Rod and Michigan really be bad? I mean really? The guy's a winner. He may do it illegally, but he does win. The question is how will the ongoing NCAA probe affect the Maize and Blue? I think this is the year though, all things considered, that Michigan gets it right. I'm either way wrong or way right on this one. Here's to hoping I'm way right that one of college football's true traditional powerhouses comes back strong. Even Buckeyes fans want to see the rivalry game actually be somewhat competitive again!
J Martin (Prediction: #7): I’ll admit it’s really difficult for me to get a handle on Michigan this year for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t know who the quarterback is going to be. RichRod’s offense is totally dependent on who the trigger man is. In his heart of hearts, I think he wants Denard Robinson to be the QB because he’s the most dangerous runner of the two, but Forcier has shown more as a passer and doesn’t seem to be going away (unless he gets his feelings hurt and transfers, as rumored). If Forcier is the QB, Michigan is probably going to be in the .500 range, like last year, and maybe go to a bowl. If Robinson is the QB, they could go anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3. Secondly, I just don’t know how this team is going to respond to the axe hanging over Rodriguez’s neck. Are they going to rally around him and fight for a bowl, or are they going to quit and wait to start over with the new coach? Last year began under a similar cloud, and they started out inspired, but then they seemed to give up after dropping games to Michigan State and Iowa. If this year’s team doesn’t have more heart, this season could get REALLY ugly, because I think UConn has the team to show up in Ann Arbor and clean their clocks in week 1. I'm kinda on the fence, but I hate the 3-3-5 defense that Rich is bringing back, so I guess I'll be on the side of pessimism.
Ross (Prediction: #7): It seems increasingly unlikely that the Michigan defense will be able to stop a soul in 2010 (especially through the air), which means that the offense is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting to win games. Luckily, they return a pretty fair amount of talent on offense (3/5 of the OL, QB, a pair of receivers, and a tight end) and showed signs last year of evolving into the sort of high-powered offense that's been a staple of most Rodriguez-coached teams. But that defense... that defense is scary (and not in a good way), especially the secondary, which is an utter wasteland after multiple injuries and defections of highly-ranked talent. The schedule doesn't do them any favors, either; four of their final six Big Ten games are against Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.
Michigan State Spartans
Chris (Prediction: #6): My logic here? Good coach, okay team...not as good as at least four of the teams ahead of them in the Big Ten (may be faltering on my Michigan prediction already), but is definitely not as bad as the 5 teams below. Middle of the road Michigan State can knock people off, or lose to questionable teams. But in the end it all equals out and the Spartans should improve at least one game from their 6-7 season a year ago. You know they should really make some kind of rule with 6-6 bowl teams that if they lose and go 6-7 than they should have to play another 6-7 team that lost and the winner gets back to .500. The loser is disqualified from playing in a bowl the next year because there is no way a team like that should have ever played in a bowl in the first place. Who's with me?
J Martin (Prediction: #6): The Spartans suffered somewhat of a let down in 2009. Despite some turnover on offense, the defense was expected to carry the team to another 9 or 10 win season. But early in the year, the secondary completely imploded, and MSU ended up with one of the worst pass defenses in the conference. That exacerbated issues with a young offense, and the next thing you know, they’re struggling to make a bowl game. Well, the defense is slightly less experienced, with many of their losses coming in the secondary. Your first instinct might be to expect another bad year, but my opinion is that when you’re as bad as the Spartans were in 09, a bunch of fresh faces can be just what you need. I’m looking for a big rebound, led by returning senior linebacker Greg Jones. I also expect more out of the offense now that they’ve settled in on one quarterback and all those freshman running backs have had a year to mature in the system. They still won’t be ready to compete with the best in the conference, but they should return to 8-9 win form.
Ross (Prediction: #5): MSU looks a lot like Iowa on offense: lots of returning talent at the skill positions and a lot of question marks along the offensive line. QB Kirk Cousins might be the best quarterback in the Big Ten and he has a slew of returning targets to throw to, which should lead to some impressive passing stats for MSU. They also have some talented RBs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker; they saw a lot of action last year as true freshmen and that experience should serve them well this year. Still, all of that offensive firepower could be for naught if the new look offensive line can't open holes for the backs and keep Cousins upright -- and that's a definite concern for now. The defense is stacked at LB with veterans Greg Jones and Eric Gordon and newcomers William Gholston and Max Bullough. On the other hand, they'll need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and in the secondary. Still, if they get some quality play from the newcomers in the defense and the offensive line gels quickly, this could be a surprise team in the Big Ten.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chris (Prediction: #11): Gone are the days of Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney rushing for 1,000 yards in the same year (in fact gone are those days in the NFL too, apparently...despite the fact that they are on different teams). Minnesota's offense will improve by way of returning a whopping 9 starters (which isn't saying much, it's hard to get worse than 109th in offense...you have to try pretty hard to do that). YAY! Whew. Wait, but they're still ranked 11th in the Big 10 (that sounds funny even to this day, I know, I chuckle)? So what's the bad news? Oh yeah, they return two on a D that was below average a year ago, including none in their front 7. YIKES! All Gophers fans can do is sit back and think about the days of their dreadlock tandems of running backs. Those were the days...
J Martin (Prediction: #11): It’s going to be a rough year in Minneapolis. I haven’t thought much of the Gophers for the past two seasons, but they’ve managed enough hocus pocus with the schedule to get bowl eligible in both. This season, the schedule is brutal, as they play USC and draw the consensus top 4 teams in the conference, and four of those games are at home (basically wasting home field advantage on teams they have no chance of beating). Even if they were good, they’d struggle. But despite returning nearly the entire offense, they lose their best player by far (Eric Decker), and Adam Weber is not a good quarterback at all. The defense was actually respectable last season, but they return only 2 starters in 2010. Minnesota has a nice new stadium. After this season, it might be time for the administration there to bring in a coach who can field a football team to match it.
Ross (Prediction: #11): As it stands, they're slated to return all of two starters and they'll be breaking in a new defensive coordinator, too. Expecting the Gophers to stop too many teams is a fool's errand. On the bright side, they return nine on offense, including fourth-year starter Adam Weber at QB. Of course, Weber is also working under his third or fourth different offensive coordinator, has regressed each year he's been there, and is without his safety blanket target (Eric Decker). Aside from Decker, they also return most of his top receivers, their leading rusher from a year ago, and their entire offensive line. But like Zook, Tim Brewster has managed the art of getting less out of his team and it's hard not to see them crumbling under the weight of a tough schedule (they entertain USC, Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa at home this year).
Northwestern Wildcats
Chris (Prediction: #7): Take your pick. It will be Purdue or Northwestern. Just like the middle of the Pac-10, this is truly hard to decide. Neither team brings much back, but Northwestern brings back 12 starters off of a surprising 8-5 team vs. Purdue bringing back 10 starters off of a decidedly average team a year ago. It's a fight to the finish, the only difference is, the winner only wins 7th place.
J Martin (Prediction: #5): Pat Fitzgerald has a really good thing going at Northwestern. And while I don’t see his program ever breaking through to contend for the Big 10 title, I also don’t see why he can’t keep winning about 8 games a year. He accomplishes the things that Bobby Johnson used to get credit for almost doing at Vanderbilt. The past 2 years, his Wildcats have finished 4th in the conference at 5-3. He generates this kind of consistency because his teams are always going to be focused around playing sound defense. This season, they return their entire starting linebacker unit. Their biggest challenge will be replacing the underrated Mike Kafka at QB, but presumptive starter Dan Persa gave Kafka a run for his money last off-season, and as a junior, he’s very familiar with the system. Their schedule divides neatly into two halves, and Northwestern could easily be 6-0 at the break. That could make them an extremely dangerous opponent to face late in the year, because they’ll already be bowl eligible and playing with house money, as they say. Revenge-minded Iowa should be wary heading into Evanston.
Ross (Prediction: #6): On the flipside of Michigan State, you have a team like Northwestern, who returns 4/5 of their offensive line but will be breaking in new starters at QB and two of the three starting WR spots. Still, Northwestern has usually done a fine job of finding unheralded players to come in and play at a high level at those spots. The defense features a lot of returning experience at LB and CB, but will be fielding new faces in the secondary and along the defensive line (where some newbie has the unpleasant task of trying to replace stud DE Corey Wooten). But Fitzgerald has proven himself to be an excellent coach, so it's not wise to bet against them too much. They'll probably lose to a team or two that they shouldn't, but they'll also beat a team or two that they shouldn't and will probably be a pesky out for each team on their schedule.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Chris (Prediction: #1): The Buckeyes are the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 10 and possibly even exorcise their demons by winning a national championship (though the Buckeyes do NOT want to see an SEC team meeting them there. Oh please, oh please, oh pretty please football gods! We knew you'd understand, we just can't beat the best of the best). Terrelle Pryor has been lambasted from the beginning of his sophomore year, the time in which fans thought he should have arrived and reached his potential. Instead, Pryor took baby steps until the Rose Bowl and then blew up. Fluke? I don't know, but I doubt it. I think some part of that guy has turned the corner. We'll see how much Pryor has grown when the Bucks go to Iowa for what will probably decide the conference champion. The defense lost some key cogs, but when does a Jim Tressel coached team not play good D? And they will again. Also running back is a concern. Nobody screams the next Beanie Wells. But I think Ohio State is a safe bet to at least take the Big 10, although I'm choosing not to speculate beyond that right now.
J Martin (Prediction: #1): I vacillated back and forth between the Buckeyes and Iowa as to which team was the best in the conference. It was a tough call. Both are loaded. Ultimately, I went with Ohio State. There isn't much negative you can say about this team on paper. They return a wealth of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. The only real question is which Terrelle Pryor is going to show up this season. The one from the Rose Bowl, or the one that had people calling for him to be moved to receiver? My guess is that he ends up close to Rose Bowl form. And if that's the case, the only thing standing in their way is a conference schedule that sees them go on the road to face their two biggest challenges this season, Iowa and Wisconsin. That almost tipped me in favor of the Hawkeyes. But then I remembered: these guys have developed into Big 10 road warriors over the past few years. Barring their epic brain fart against Purdue last year, the Buckeyes haven't lost a Big 10 away game since losing to Penn State in 2005. Kirk Ferentz does a great job at Iowa, but Jim Tressel has this program humming along on a much higher level than anybody else in the Big 10, and they know how to take care of business. They should win their 6th straight conference title, and maybe play in the BCS title game for the 4th time in the past decade if they can avoid another early season big game letdown against The U. They will then, of course, lose.
Ross (Prediction: #1): They return nine on offense and six on defense and have been so consistently dominant in the Big Ten that it's difficult to pick against them, no matter how much I'd like to. If the progress Pryor showed in the Rose Bowl was more than a one-game blip, the offense should be truly terrifying, as they'll have a dangerous passing game to go along with one of the nation's best rushing attacks. The defense has some key holes to fill (mainly, three spots along the defensive line), but OSU has done a better job of reloading than anyone else in the league, especially on defense... so it would be foolish to bet against them. Particularly since the guys they have starting this year are not fresh-faced newbies; they've seen a fair amount of action. The main potential red flag from them is the schedule, which has them facing their two toughest league rivals, Iowa and Wisconsin, on the the road.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Chris (Prediction: #4): The Big 10 is really a 3-team race (sorry if this is the first you've heard of this JoePa), but Penn State is right behind that group. Kevin Newsome should be a capable replacement for Darryl Clark in the athleticism department, but Clark brought such intangibles and leadership to the position that I think it is unlikely to expect Newsome to come right in and resume that role. In fact, he may never reach that level. To be honest, I don't know whether to be more worried about the offense or the defense. Neither will be bad, but neither will be spectacular. Because of Evan Royster I will go with the D. Royster's workload will probably increase, which is cause for concern because his statline DRAMATICALLY decreased a year ago, to the tune of 500 or so yards. However, I myself am in love with Royster's game, and I think he'll recover this year, posting equally as gaudy stats as two years ago.
J Martin (Prediction: #4): On paper, this looks like a very mediocre Penn State team to me. They have the schedule to still win 9 games and play in a nice bowl, but I don’t think they’re a threat to Iowa or Ohio State. Obviously, the main problem on offense is quarterback. They have no one with any experience. They have a couple of incoming freshmen who are promising (I hear Robert Bolden is impressing in camp), but knowing Joe Paterno, he’s going to go with the most steady upper classman until the wheels fall off. Of course, the “upper classmen” in question are sophomores, so regardless, the passing game is going to be WAY down. That means it’s going to fall to Evan Royster to carry the offense on the ground. And while he’s a talented guy, that’s going to be somewhat of a new role for him, and its difficult to say if he’s cut out for it. Defensively, they should be typically stout, which will be their saving grace. However, with the loss of their top 3 linebackers, as well as Jared Odrick on the line, they may not be an elite defense in 2010.
Ross (Prediction: #4): PSU returns plenty on offense (the majority of the offensive line, all their top receivers, and Evan Royster and Stephon Green at RB)... but they have a major question mark at QB, where they still haven't settled on a starter to replace Daryll Clark. That's definitely a concern, especially since they have to go on the road to Alabama and Iowa in their first five weeks. The defense returns just five and will need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and a trio of new linebackers. Fortunately, aside from OSU, no one in the Big Ten has done a better job of just reloading on defense than PSU; they have some highly-talented players waiting in the wings to step in and start at LB and along the defensive line. Really, the thing that damages this team the most might be the schedule: they should be a team that improves as the season progresses, but their schedule features some of their toughest games at the start of the season. That could be difficult to overcome.
Purdue Boilermakers
Chris (Prediction: #8): Take a look at Northwestern for my logic. If I'm wrong, see Robert Marve as the reason.
J Martin (Prediction: #8): The Boilermakers have been a better team than their overall record might have led you to believe the past 2 years. In 2009, they actually went 4-4 in the Big 10, and, if not for a slip-up against Northern Illinois, they would have gone to a bowl. This year’s team looks very similar to the past two, in the sense that they don’t wow you with their number of returning starters, but they’re not dreadfully undermanned either. So with their home-and-home series with Oregon coming to an end, and a much lesser opponent coming on, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t achieve bowl eligibility. They should win at least 3 of their non-conference games (Notre Dame is a toss-up), and they get three key conference “swing” games at home (Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana). The x-factor here will be new quarterback Robert Marve. If he finally has his head on straight, look out. He has an excellent receiving target in Keith Smith, and they can make this offense dangerous.
Ross (Prediction: #8): Robert Marve is a reason for hope as he takes over the QB position (unless you remember him imploding at Miami two years ago, although Purdue fans would rather you didn't mention that), and he has some good targets to throw to (particularly WR Keith Smith)... if the rebuilt offensive line (2/5 starters back) can give him enough protection to find them. RB is a possible trouble spot; Ralph Bolden emerged as a real threat in the Big Ten a year ago, but suffered a significant knee injury in spring practice and may not be ready to go this fall. The defense features one bona fide star (DE Ryan Kerrigan, the best player in the Big Ten that no one talks about) and a number of returning starters in the front seven (3/4 of the defensive line, all three linebackers)... but a host of new faces in the secondary. So Purdue could be in line for quite a few shootouts in 2010; we'll see just how far Marve has come from his Miami days.
Wisconsin Badgers
Chris (Prediction: #3): Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema has filled in seamlessly for Barry Alvarez as the Badgers head coach. He maintained the power running game that his predecessor thrived on, with big backs like P.J. Hill and now John Clay. Expect the Badgers to be pretty amazing offensively, where they return every starter but their fullback. Defensively it might be a work in progress, but the offense has such firepower and can control the clock with their style of play that I don't think the D's flaws will stand out. Wisconsin was only one of 6 teams that averaged 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing a season ago. Expect them to be in that category again, and given a slip up by one of the two above them, they could be seeing roses.
J Martin (Prediction: #3): The recipe for success remains the same as it has for the past 15 or 20 years: take a big, fat running back, line him up behind an even bigger, fatter offensive line, and just run over people. This season, the Badgers have an incredibly experienced big, fat offensive line (109 total starts), and return the big, fat Big 10 offensive player of the year, not to mention another good one in Montee Ball. In fact, they return just about everyone of consequence on offense except Garrett Graham. Scott Tolzien wasn’t overly impressive at QB last year, but he came on strong towards the end, and this team doesn’t need him to be more than an effective game manager. If he cuts his interception total in half, Wisconsin will be tough to beat. They have a very easy non-conference schedule and a favorable conference slate, including Ohio State at home. The only trick is that they have to go to Iowa to play the very next week. But if they take care of business against the Buckeyes at home, they could very well ride that momentum to a victory over the Hawkeyes. Of course…I could also see them going into the tank against Iowa if they lose to OSU. So that’s the critical stretch. 10 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team.
Ross (Prediction: #3): The Badgers are loaded on offense, especially along the line where they return all five starters. Those five behemoths should open plenty of holes for John Clay and Montee Ball and give Scott Tolzien time to hit open receivers on play-action passes. On the other hand, their defense returns only six starters (including just one on the defensive line) and they've been banged up in preseason camp, with two of their best returning defenders (LB Chris Borland and SS Jay Valai) missing time with injuries. The schedule is also a little nasty, as they get Ohio State and Iowa back-to-back. Bielema's done a solid job of beating the teams he should beat at Wisco, but he's struggled to get over the hump and beat the top dogs.
CFBZ Predicted Big Ten 2010 Standings
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Iowa Hawkeyes
3. Wisconsin Badgers
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Northwestern Wildcats
7. Michigan Wolverines
8. Purdue Boilermakers
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Indiana Hoosiers
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 (7-1)
Iowa Hawkeyes 11-2 (6-2)
Penn State Nittany Lions 11-2 (6-2)
Wisconsin Badgers 10-3 (5-3)
Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 (5-3)
Michigan State Spartans 6-7 (4-4)
Purdue Boilermakers 5-7 (4-4)
Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 (3-5)
Illinois Fighting Illini 3-9 (2-6)
Michigan Wolverines 5-7 (1-7)
Indiana Hoosiers 4-8 (1-7)
Returning Leaders: Passing
Ben Chappell, Indiana, Sr (268 of 428 for 2942 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin, Sr (211 of 328 for 2705 yds, 16 TD, 11 INT)
Kirk Cousins, Mich St, Jr (198 of 328 for 2680 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Adam Weber, Minnesota, Sr (191 of 267 for 2582 yds, 13 TD, 15 INT)
Ricky Stanzi, Iowa, Sr (171 of 304 for 2417 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
John Clay, Wisconsin, Jr (287 carries for 1517 yds, 18 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Evan Royster, Penn State, Sr (205 carries for 1169 yds, 6 TD, 5.7 ypc)
Ralph Bolden, Purdue, Jr (200 carries for 935 yds, 9 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Adam Robinson, Iowa, Soph (181 carries for 834 yds, 5 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Terrelle Pryor, Ohio St, Jr (162 carries for 779 yds, 7 TD, 4.8 ypc)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Keith Smith, Purdue, Sr (91 rec for 1100 yds, 6 TD, 7.6 rec/game)
Tandon Doss, Indiana, Jr (77 rec for 962 yds, 5 TD, 6.4 rec/game)
Damarlo Belcher, Indiana, Jr (61 rec for 770 yds, 5 TD, 5.1 rec/game)
DeVier Posey, Ohio St, Jr (60 rec for 828 yds, 8 TD, 4.6 rec/game)
Nick Toon, Wisconsin, Jr (54 rec for 805 yds, 4 TD, 4.2 rec/game)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (154 total, 11.8 tackles/game)
Ross Homan, Ohio St, Sr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Ian Thomas, Indiana, Jr, LB (95 total, 7.9 tackles/game)
Brian Rolle, Ohio St, Sr, LB (94 total, 7.2 tackles/game)
Eric Gordon, Mich St, Sr, LB (93 total, 7.1 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Adrian Clayborn, Iowa, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue, Sr, DE (11.0)
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (9.0)
Cameron Heyward, Sr, DE (6.5)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Tyler Sash, Iowa, Jr, SS (6 interceptions)
Ross Homan, Ohio State, Sr, LB (5)
Brett Greenwood, Iowa, Jr, FS (3)
Brian Peters, Northwestern, Jr, SS (3)
Kyle Theret, Minnesota, Jr, S (3)
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 10 WITH THE ZEALOTS
Illinois Fighting Illini
Chris (Prediction: #10): Bloop de bloop, de bweedley deep de deep de derk. Ron Zook is A COACH! For those of you who don't watch South Park and didn't understand the Rob Schneider joke reference, you're missing out. But the point is, Zook is a person masquerading as a coach. The only thing that we have to do now is figure out how long the act is in town. Newsflash: It's over at the end of this year. Also, I'm not even going to explain why I think the Illini will finish in 10th. It's Ron Zook isn't it? That's explanation enough.
J Martin (Prediction: #9): I never bought into the Juice Williams hype, but even I was astounded at just how badly the Illini fell on their face in 2009. I’m even more astounded that Ron Zook still has a job. I guess you can line up Illinois next to Maryland and Colorado as the schools that don’t care about football. But they’re still going to field a team this year, so I guess I’ll talk about them. It’s looking like a total reboot on the offensive side of the ball with new OC Paul Petrino needing to find a new QB, a new top receiver, and a consistent rushing attack, which they’ve lacked since Rashard Mendenhall bolted. (I really wish Daniel Dufrene had panned out, if only because my “Dufrene! Party of 6!” TD call was a big party hit.) Defensively, they’re a really underwhelming group, even though they return a fair amount of experience. Basically, it’s just a lame duck team. And they have two lower division teams on their schedule, so they’ll have to win 7 to get to a bowl. And that ain’t happening. I think everybody here will be through and waiting for the new coach by November.
Ross (Prediction: #9): The good news is that they return 3/5 of the offensive line and one of the league's most underrated running backs (Mikel LeShoure) and don't have to deal with the Juice Williams Experience anymore. On the other hand, they're on yet another new offensive coordinator and Ron Zook is still there. There are a few more faces back on defense, but really the last two years have made it crystal clear that it doesn't matter how much returning talent the Illini have; so long as Ron Zook is there, he'll find a way to screw it up. Skipping Iowa and Wisconsin on the schedule is a plus, but a three-game stretch against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State could crush their season.
Indiana Hoosiers
Chris (Prediction: #9): Indiana should improve gradually on offense as the year goes along, bringing back a lot of key pieces to the puzzle in the way of skill position players and just enough on the offensive line. As for defense...yeah, well...there's always next year.
J Martin (Prediction: #10): Indiana finished 1-7 at the bottom of the conference for the second straight season in 2009, but if just a handful of plays had gone the other way, they could have easily been 3-5 and playing in a bowl game. Because of that, they seem to have the most upward momentum of the worst programs in the conference. Unfortunately, when you’re at the level of an Indiana, progress isn’t always a straight line because you don’t have the talent on deck to pick up where the departing seniors left off. This year, Indiana will be feeling that the most on the defensive side of the ball, where they lose 9 of their top 13 contributors from last season. Not that the Hoosiers were world-beaters on D last year, but they were experienced, plucky guys who helped Indiana win the turnover battle in 7 of their 12 games (while their quarterback was busy throwing 15 interceptions). So its definitely a rebuilding year on that side of the ball. And the offense is simply not good enough to make up the difference. Their 4 patsy non-conference games should allow them to match 09’s win total, but beyond that, the going gets tough. This won’t be the year they take a step forward.
Ross (Prediction: #10): Indiana should have a very strong offense, considering they return nine starters -- everyone but a pair of linemen. QB Ben Chappell was pretty productive a year ago and he has all of his primary targets back again this year. So that's good. But an already bad defense returns only four starters and loses virtually all of its best players, too. That's a problem. They'd better get their wins early, too, since the schedule has them close with games against Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue. A year ago Indiana was good enough to hang in there for a while against Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State; they were also bad enough to choke away all those games and get destroyed, 47-7, by Indiana. Their offense might be good enough to steal a game or two in the Big Ten, but they're going to need to score a lot of points to overcome their leaky defense.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Chris (Prediction: #2): My bonehead prediction of 2009: "Iowa does not stand a chance against GT's triple option in the bowl game. They're going to get throttled." Whoops...looks like I've got some splainin' to do on that one. 1. I was wrong. 2. Did I mention I was wrong? Like WAY wrong? So yeah, my bad in my failed attempt to pick against the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz is an amazing program coach. He might not be flashy or in a league of his own, but he knows how to year in and year out put a good football team on the field. Defensively they should be among the nation's best again, returning 8 starters on that side of the ball. The concern is on offense, while returning Ricky Stanzi and some skill position guys, they have a completely revamped O-line. This team was a couple of injuries away from an undefeated season, although if you look at the first game, this team was a point away from being beaten at home by Northern Iowa too. So I'm not ready to call a team that loses so much from a sub-par offense a world-beater. The truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes...and that's why I think that Iowa will finish second to Ohio State and its arsenal of weapons on offense.
J Martin (Prediction: #2): I love this Iowa team. On defense, they look set to pick up right where they left off in 2009. Yes, they lost two very good linebackers and a good cornerback, but virtually everyone else who made a significant contribution to last year's unit is back. On offense, I expect them to be better than in 09. The offensive line doesn't look as dominant on paper, but OL's are Kirk Ferentz's specialty, so I have no doubt he'll put a quality line on the field. The main area where they need improvement is turnovers, particularly Ricky Stanzi's interceptions. If he can cut his 09 number in half, the Hawkeyes will be tough to beat. And I think he can do that. I think when presumptive running back starter Jewel Hampton went down with a preseason injury, thrusting that job into the hands of a couple of freshmen, it put the offense into a situation they weren't entirely comfortable with. Namely, it required Stanzi to make more plays than maybe he needed to at that point in his development. This year Hampton is back, and those freshmen (who didn't play half bad as the season progressed) now have a year's worth of experience under their belts. That's going to create more of a comfort zone for Stanzi and allow him to be more efficient with the football. I have this team below Ohio State right now, but just by a hair. The schedule definitely plays into their favor as they get their top 3 conference opponents at home. Iowa just needs to prove to me that they can win the lesser games consistently, like say against Northwestern, right along with the big games before I ever put them at #1.
Ross (Prediction: #2): Everything hinges on the development of the offensive line and the team's ability to stay healthy. The defense looks absolutely loaded and the offense is strong at the skill positions. But if guys start going down, there isn't a huge amount of depth at most positions. And the offensive line is still a big question mark, given that they have to work in three new starters who haven't had a lot of experience thus far. Still, if the injury gods smile upon them and the offensive line develops into a respectable outfit, this is a team built to go far. They get all of their toughest foes at home and the schedule is fairly manageable. On the other hand, their history against OSU is absolutely miserable, which makes it hard to pick them over OSU for now.
Michigan Wolverines
Chris (Prediction: #5): So Michigan started the season 5-2, and because of his stellar play everyone was lapping up the Wolverines and true freshman quarterback Tate Forcier. EHHHHHHHHH! Wrong answer. Survey says...the Wolves lost their remaining five games, and with exception of Purdue, they weren't close. So Michigan, what's up? Let's talk. For one, I have absolute faith that Forcier is a gamer and that if anyone is going to elevate that program back to where it was, it's him. The way he played as a true freshman coming into a situation that bad and with such moxie, WOW! Matt Barkley played like dog excrement compared to Forcier, especially considering that Barkley had skill position talent galore around him. Also, how long can Rich Rod and Michigan really be bad? I mean really? The guy's a winner. He may do it illegally, but he does win. The question is how will the ongoing NCAA probe affect the Maize and Blue? I think this is the year though, all things considered, that Michigan gets it right. I'm either way wrong or way right on this one. Here's to hoping I'm way right that one of college football's true traditional powerhouses comes back strong. Even Buckeyes fans want to see the rivalry game actually be somewhat competitive again!
J Martin (Prediction: #7): I’ll admit it’s really difficult for me to get a handle on Michigan this year for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t know who the quarterback is going to be. RichRod’s offense is totally dependent on who the trigger man is. In his heart of hearts, I think he wants Denard Robinson to be the QB because he’s the most dangerous runner of the two, but Forcier has shown more as a passer and doesn’t seem to be going away (unless he gets his feelings hurt and transfers, as rumored). If Forcier is the QB, Michigan is probably going to be in the .500 range, like last year, and maybe go to a bowl. If Robinson is the QB, they could go anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3. Secondly, I just don’t know how this team is going to respond to the axe hanging over Rodriguez’s neck. Are they going to rally around him and fight for a bowl, or are they going to quit and wait to start over with the new coach? Last year began under a similar cloud, and they started out inspired, but then they seemed to give up after dropping games to Michigan State and Iowa. If this year’s team doesn’t have more heart, this season could get REALLY ugly, because I think UConn has the team to show up in Ann Arbor and clean their clocks in week 1. I'm kinda on the fence, but I hate the 3-3-5 defense that Rich is bringing back, so I guess I'll be on the side of pessimism.
Ross (Prediction: #7): It seems increasingly unlikely that the Michigan defense will be able to stop a soul in 2010 (especially through the air), which means that the offense is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting to win games. Luckily, they return a pretty fair amount of talent on offense (3/5 of the OL, QB, a pair of receivers, and a tight end) and showed signs last year of evolving into the sort of high-powered offense that's been a staple of most Rodriguez-coached teams. But that defense... that defense is scary (and not in a good way), especially the secondary, which is an utter wasteland after multiple injuries and defections of highly-ranked talent. The schedule doesn't do them any favors, either; four of their final six Big Ten games are against Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.
Michigan State Spartans
Chris (Prediction: #6): My logic here? Good coach, okay team...not as good as at least four of the teams ahead of them in the Big Ten (may be faltering on my Michigan prediction already), but is definitely not as bad as the 5 teams below. Middle of the road Michigan State can knock people off, or lose to questionable teams. But in the end it all equals out and the Spartans should improve at least one game from their 6-7 season a year ago. You know they should really make some kind of rule with 6-6 bowl teams that if they lose and go 6-7 than they should have to play another 6-7 team that lost and the winner gets back to .500. The loser is disqualified from playing in a bowl the next year because there is no way a team like that should have ever played in a bowl in the first place. Who's with me?
J Martin (Prediction: #6): The Spartans suffered somewhat of a let down in 2009. Despite some turnover on offense, the defense was expected to carry the team to another 9 or 10 win season. But early in the year, the secondary completely imploded, and MSU ended up with one of the worst pass defenses in the conference. That exacerbated issues with a young offense, and the next thing you know, they’re struggling to make a bowl game. Well, the defense is slightly less experienced, with many of their losses coming in the secondary. Your first instinct might be to expect another bad year, but my opinion is that when you’re as bad as the Spartans were in 09, a bunch of fresh faces can be just what you need. I’m looking for a big rebound, led by returning senior linebacker Greg Jones. I also expect more out of the offense now that they’ve settled in on one quarterback and all those freshman running backs have had a year to mature in the system. They still won’t be ready to compete with the best in the conference, but they should return to 8-9 win form.
Ross (Prediction: #5): MSU looks a lot like Iowa on offense: lots of returning talent at the skill positions and a lot of question marks along the offensive line. QB Kirk Cousins might be the best quarterback in the Big Ten and he has a slew of returning targets to throw to, which should lead to some impressive passing stats for MSU. They also have some talented RBs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker; they saw a lot of action last year as true freshmen and that experience should serve them well this year. Still, all of that offensive firepower could be for naught if the new look offensive line can't open holes for the backs and keep Cousins upright -- and that's a definite concern for now. The defense is stacked at LB with veterans Greg Jones and Eric Gordon and newcomers William Gholston and Max Bullough. On the other hand, they'll need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and in the secondary. Still, if they get some quality play from the newcomers in the defense and the offensive line gels quickly, this could be a surprise team in the Big Ten.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chris (Prediction: #11): Gone are the days of Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney rushing for 1,000 yards in the same year (in fact gone are those days in the NFL too, apparently...despite the fact that they are on different teams). Minnesota's offense will improve by way of returning a whopping 9 starters (which isn't saying much, it's hard to get worse than 109th in offense...you have to try pretty hard to do that). YAY! Whew. Wait, but they're still ranked 11th in the Big 10 (that sounds funny even to this day, I know, I chuckle)? So what's the bad news? Oh yeah, they return two on a D that was below average a year ago, including none in their front 7. YIKES! All Gophers fans can do is sit back and think about the days of their dreadlock tandems of running backs. Those were the days...
J Martin (Prediction: #11): It’s going to be a rough year in Minneapolis. I haven’t thought much of the Gophers for the past two seasons, but they’ve managed enough hocus pocus with the schedule to get bowl eligible in both. This season, the schedule is brutal, as they play USC and draw the consensus top 4 teams in the conference, and four of those games are at home (basically wasting home field advantage on teams they have no chance of beating). Even if they were good, they’d struggle. But despite returning nearly the entire offense, they lose their best player by far (Eric Decker), and Adam Weber is not a good quarterback at all. The defense was actually respectable last season, but they return only 2 starters in 2010. Minnesota has a nice new stadium. After this season, it might be time for the administration there to bring in a coach who can field a football team to match it.
Ross (Prediction: #11): As it stands, they're slated to return all of two starters and they'll be breaking in a new defensive coordinator, too. Expecting the Gophers to stop too many teams is a fool's errand. On the bright side, they return nine on offense, including fourth-year starter Adam Weber at QB. Of course, Weber is also working under his third or fourth different offensive coordinator, has regressed each year he's been there, and is without his safety blanket target (Eric Decker). Aside from Decker, they also return most of his top receivers, their leading rusher from a year ago, and their entire offensive line. But like Zook, Tim Brewster has managed the art of getting less out of his team and it's hard not to see them crumbling under the weight of a tough schedule (they entertain USC, Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa at home this year).
Northwestern Wildcats
Chris (Prediction: #7): Take your pick. It will be Purdue or Northwestern. Just like the middle of the Pac-10, this is truly hard to decide. Neither team brings much back, but Northwestern brings back 12 starters off of a surprising 8-5 team vs. Purdue bringing back 10 starters off of a decidedly average team a year ago. It's a fight to the finish, the only difference is, the winner only wins 7th place.
J Martin (Prediction: #5): Pat Fitzgerald has a really good thing going at Northwestern. And while I don’t see his program ever breaking through to contend for the Big 10 title, I also don’t see why he can’t keep winning about 8 games a year. He accomplishes the things that Bobby Johnson used to get credit for almost doing at Vanderbilt. The past 2 years, his Wildcats have finished 4th in the conference at 5-3. He generates this kind of consistency because his teams are always going to be focused around playing sound defense. This season, they return their entire starting linebacker unit. Their biggest challenge will be replacing the underrated Mike Kafka at QB, but presumptive starter Dan Persa gave Kafka a run for his money last off-season, and as a junior, he’s very familiar with the system. Their schedule divides neatly into two halves, and Northwestern could easily be 6-0 at the break. That could make them an extremely dangerous opponent to face late in the year, because they’ll already be bowl eligible and playing with house money, as they say. Revenge-minded Iowa should be wary heading into Evanston.
Ross (Prediction: #6): On the flipside of Michigan State, you have a team like Northwestern, who returns 4/5 of their offensive line but will be breaking in new starters at QB and two of the three starting WR spots. Still, Northwestern has usually done a fine job of finding unheralded players to come in and play at a high level at those spots. The defense features a lot of returning experience at LB and CB, but will be fielding new faces in the secondary and along the defensive line (where some newbie has the unpleasant task of trying to replace stud DE Corey Wooten). But Fitzgerald has proven himself to be an excellent coach, so it's not wise to bet against them too much. They'll probably lose to a team or two that they shouldn't, but they'll also beat a team or two that they shouldn't and will probably be a pesky out for each team on their schedule.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Chris (Prediction: #1): The Buckeyes are the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 10 and possibly even exorcise their demons by winning a national championship (though the Buckeyes do NOT want to see an SEC team meeting them there. Oh please, oh please, oh pretty please football gods! We knew you'd understand, we just can't beat the best of the best). Terrelle Pryor has been lambasted from the beginning of his sophomore year, the time in which fans thought he should have arrived and reached his potential. Instead, Pryor took baby steps until the Rose Bowl and then blew up. Fluke? I don't know, but I doubt it. I think some part of that guy has turned the corner. We'll see how much Pryor has grown when the Bucks go to Iowa for what will probably decide the conference champion. The defense lost some key cogs, but when does a Jim Tressel coached team not play good D? And they will again. Also running back is a concern. Nobody screams the next Beanie Wells. But I think Ohio State is a safe bet to at least take the Big 10, although I'm choosing not to speculate beyond that right now.
J Martin (Prediction: #1): I vacillated back and forth between the Buckeyes and Iowa as to which team was the best in the conference. It was a tough call. Both are loaded. Ultimately, I went with Ohio State. There isn't much negative you can say about this team on paper. They return a wealth of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. The only real question is which Terrelle Pryor is going to show up this season. The one from the Rose Bowl, or the one that had people calling for him to be moved to receiver? My guess is that he ends up close to Rose Bowl form. And if that's the case, the only thing standing in their way is a conference schedule that sees them go on the road to face their two biggest challenges this season, Iowa and Wisconsin. That almost tipped me in favor of the Hawkeyes. But then I remembered: these guys have developed into Big 10 road warriors over the past few years. Barring their epic brain fart against Purdue last year, the Buckeyes haven't lost a Big 10 away game since losing to Penn State in 2005. Kirk Ferentz does a great job at Iowa, but Jim Tressel has this program humming along on a much higher level than anybody else in the Big 10, and they know how to take care of business. They should win their 6th straight conference title, and maybe play in the BCS title game for the 4th time in the past decade if they can avoid another early season big game letdown against The U. They will then, of course, lose.
Ross (Prediction: #1): They return nine on offense and six on defense and have been so consistently dominant in the Big Ten that it's difficult to pick against them, no matter how much I'd like to. If the progress Pryor showed in the Rose Bowl was more than a one-game blip, the offense should be truly terrifying, as they'll have a dangerous passing game to go along with one of the nation's best rushing attacks. The defense has some key holes to fill (mainly, three spots along the defensive line), but OSU has done a better job of reloading than anyone else in the league, especially on defense... so it would be foolish to bet against them. Particularly since the guys they have starting this year are not fresh-faced newbies; they've seen a fair amount of action. The main potential red flag from them is the schedule, which has them facing their two toughest league rivals, Iowa and Wisconsin, on the the road.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Chris (Prediction: #4): The Big 10 is really a 3-team race (sorry if this is the first you've heard of this JoePa), but Penn State is right behind that group. Kevin Newsome should be a capable replacement for Darryl Clark in the athleticism department, but Clark brought such intangibles and leadership to the position that I think it is unlikely to expect Newsome to come right in and resume that role. In fact, he may never reach that level. To be honest, I don't know whether to be more worried about the offense or the defense. Neither will be bad, but neither will be spectacular. Because of Evan Royster I will go with the D. Royster's workload will probably increase, which is cause for concern because his statline DRAMATICALLY decreased a year ago, to the tune of 500 or so yards. However, I myself am in love with Royster's game, and I think he'll recover this year, posting equally as gaudy stats as two years ago.
J Martin (Prediction: #4): On paper, this looks like a very mediocre Penn State team to me. They have the schedule to still win 9 games and play in a nice bowl, but I don’t think they’re a threat to Iowa or Ohio State. Obviously, the main problem on offense is quarterback. They have no one with any experience. They have a couple of incoming freshmen who are promising (I hear Robert Bolden is impressing in camp), but knowing Joe Paterno, he’s going to go with the most steady upper classman until the wheels fall off. Of course, the “upper classmen” in question are sophomores, so regardless, the passing game is going to be WAY down. That means it’s going to fall to Evan Royster to carry the offense on the ground. And while he’s a talented guy, that’s going to be somewhat of a new role for him, and its difficult to say if he’s cut out for it. Defensively, they should be typically stout, which will be their saving grace. However, with the loss of their top 3 linebackers, as well as Jared Odrick on the line, they may not be an elite defense in 2010.
Ross (Prediction: #4): PSU returns plenty on offense (the majority of the offensive line, all their top receivers, and Evan Royster and Stephon Green at RB)... but they have a major question mark at QB, where they still haven't settled on a starter to replace Daryll Clark. That's definitely a concern, especially since they have to go on the road to Alabama and Iowa in their first five weeks. The defense returns just five and will need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and a trio of new linebackers. Fortunately, aside from OSU, no one in the Big Ten has done a better job of just reloading on defense than PSU; they have some highly-talented players waiting in the wings to step in and start at LB and along the defensive line. Really, the thing that damages this team the most might be the schedule: they should be a team that improves as the season progresses, but their schedule features some of their toughest games at the start of the season. That could be difficult to overcome.
Purdue Boilermakers
Chris (Prediction: #8): Take a look at Northwestern for my logic. If I'm wrong, see Robert Marve as the reason.
J Martin (Prediction: #8): The Boilermakers have been a better team than their overall record might have led you to believe the past 2 years. In 2009, they actually went 4-4 in the Big 10, and, if not for a slip-up against Northern Illinois, they would have gone to a bowl. This year’s team looks very similar to the past two, in the sense that they don’t wow you with their number of returning starters, but they’re not dreadfully undermanned either. So with their home-and-home series with Oregon coming to an end, and a much lesser opponent coming on, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t achieve bowl eligibility. They should win at least 3 of their non-conference games (Notre Dame is a toss-up), and they get three key conference “swing” games at home (Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana). The x-factor here will be new quarterback Robert Marve. If he finally has his head on straight, look out. He has an excellent receiving target in Keith Smith, and they can make this offense dangerous.
Ross (Prediction: #8): Robert Marve is a reason for hope as he takes over the QB position (unless you remember him imploding at Miami two years ago, although Purdue fans would rather you didn't mention that), and he has some good targets to throw to (particularly WR Keith Smith)... if the rebuilt offensive line (2/5 starters back) can give him enough protection to find them. RB is a possible trouble spot; Ralph Bolden emerged as a real threat in the Big Ten a year ago, but suffered a significant knee injury in spring practice and may not be ready to go this fall. The defense features one bona fide star (DE Ryan Kerrigan, the best player in the Big Ten that no one talks about) and a number of returning starters in the front seven (3/4 of the defensive line, all three linebackers)... but a host of new faces in the secondary. So Purdue could be in line for quite a few shootouts in 2010; we'll see just how far Marve has come from his Miami days.
Wisconsin Badgers
Chris (Prediction: #3): Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema has filled in seamlessly for Barry Alvarez as the Badgers head coach. He maintained the power running game that his predecessor thrived on, with big backs like P.J. Hill and now John Clay. Expect the Badgers to be pretty amazing offensively, where they return every starter but their fullback. Defensively it might be a work in progress, but the offense has such firepower and can control the clock with their style of play that I don't think the D's flaws will stand out. Wisconsin was only one of 6 teams that averaged 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing a season ago. Expect them to be in that category again, and given a slip up by one of the two above them, they could be seeing roses.
J Martin (Prediction: #3): The recipe for success remains the same as it has for the past 15 or 20 years: take a big, fat running back, line him up behind an even bigger, fatter offensive line, and just run over people. This season, the Badgers have an incredibly experienced big, fat offensive line (109 total starts), and return the big, fat Big 10 offensive player of the year, not to mention another good one in Montee Ball. In fact, they return just about everyone of consequence on offense except Garrett Graham. Scott Tolzien wasn’t overly impressive at QB last year, but he came on strong towards the end, and this team doesn’t need him to be more than an effective game manager. If he cuts his interception total in half, Wisconsin will be tough to beat. They have a very easy non-conference schedule and a favorable conference slate, including Ohio State at home. The only trick is that they have to go to Iowa to play the very next week. But if they take care of business against the Buckeyes at home, they could very well ride that momentum to a victory over the Hawkeyes. Of course…I could also see them going into the tank against Iowa if they lose to OSU. So that’s the critical stretch. 10 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team.
Ross (Prediction: #3): The Badgers are loaded on offense, especially along the line where they return all five starters. Those five behemoths should open plenty of holes for John Clay and Montee Ball and give Scott Tolzien time to hit open receivers on play-action passes. On the other hand, their defense returns only six starters (including just one on the defensive line) and they've been banged up in preseason camp, with two of their best returning defenders (LB Chris Borland and SS Jay Valai) missing time with injuries. The schedule is also a little nasty, as they get Ohio State and Iowa back-to-back. Bielema's done a solid job of beating the teams he should beat at Wisco, but he's struggled to get over the hump and beat the top dogs.
CFBZ Predicted Big Ten 2010 Standings
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Iowa Hawkeyes
3. Wisconsin Badgers
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Northwestern Wildcats
7. Michigan Wolverines
8. Purdue Boilermakers
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Indiana Hoosiers
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Pre-Season Preview: Northwestern Wildcats
2009 Record: 8-5 (5-3 in Big Ten)
2009 Bowl: Outback Bowl (lost to Auburn 38 to 35)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: Not Ranked
Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald (27-23)
Non-Conference Schedule: at Vanderbilt (9/4), Illinois State (9/11), at Rice (9/18), Central Michigan (9/25)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 25.9 points per game (7th in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 117 (8th in Big Ten)
Passing Yards/Game: 286 (1st in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 404 (4th in Big Ten)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 24.5 points per game (6th in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 128 (6th in Big Ten)
Passing Yards/Game: 221 (8th in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 350 (5th in Big Ten)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +0.23 per game (4th in Big Ten)
Penalties: 45 yards per game (6th in Big Ten)
Returning Starters
Offense: 8
Defense: 5
Kicker/Punter: 1 (Stefan Demos acted as punter and kicker last year)
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Dan Persa, Jr (20 of 34 for 224 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT)
Rushing: RB Arby Fields, Soph (82 carries for 299 yds, 5 TD, 6.3 ypc, 23 ypg)
Receiving: TE Drake Dunsmore, Jr (48 rec, 532 yds, 3 TD, 3.7 rec/game)
Receiving: WR Sidney Stewart, Sr (42 rec, 470 yds, 2 TD, 3.8 rec/game)
Tackles: LB Quentin Davie, Sr (90), LB Nate Williams, Sr (86)
Sacks: DE Vince Browne, Jr (5)
Interceptions: S Brian Peters, Jr (3)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Lindy's: Not Ranked
Mark Schlabach: Not Ranked
Rivals: Not Ranked
Scout: Not Ranked
Sports Illustrated: Not Ranked
Athlon Sports: #49
2010 Pre-Season Big Ten Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #7
Bowl Prediction:
Athlon Sports: Texas Bowl (vs Oklahoma State)
Northwestern is coming off back-to-back winning seasons in the Big Ten. They face the challenge of replacing a quarterback that led them to lead the Big 10 in passing yardage. They have a favorable out of conference schedule and for the second consecutive year they miss out on playing Ohio State. How much noise can they make in the Big Ten? We reached out to the Northwestern blog Lake The Posts to find out more about how Northwestern will fare in 2010.
2009 Bowl: Outback Bowl (lost to Auburn 38 to 35)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: Not Ranked
Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald (27-23)
Non-Conference Schedule: at Vanderbilt (9/4), Illinois State (9/11), at Rice (9/18), Central Michigan (9/25)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 25.9 points per game (7th in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 117 (8th in Big Ten)
Passing Yards/Game: 286 (1st in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 404 (4th in Big Ten)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 24.5 points per game (6th in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 128 (6th in Big Ten)
Passing Yards/Game: 221 (8th in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 350 (5th in Big Ten)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +0.23 per game (4th in Big Ten)
Penalties: 45 yards per game (6th in Big Ten)
Returning Starters
Offense: 8
Defense: 5
Kicker/Punter: 1 (Stefan Demos acted as punter and kicker last year)
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Dan Persa, Jr (20 of 34 for 224 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT)
Rushing: RB Arby Fields, Soph (82 carries for 299 yds, 5 TD, 6.3 ypc, 23 ypg)
Receiving: TE Drake Dunsmore, Jr (48 rec, 532 yds, 3 TD, 3.7 rec/game)
Receiving: WR Sidney Stewart, Sr (42 rec, 470 yds, 2 TD, 3.8 rec/game)
Tackles: LB Quentin Davie, Sr (90), LB Nate Williams, Sr (86)
Sacks: DE Vince Browne, Jr (5)
Interceptions: S Brian Peters, Jr (3)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Lindy's: Not Ranked
Mark Schlabach: Not Ranked
Rivals: Not Ranked
Scout: Not Ranked
Sports Illustrated: Not Ranked
Athlon Sports: #49
2010 Pre-Season Big Ten Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #7
Bowl Prediction:
Athlon Sports: Texas Bowl (vs Oklahoma State)
Northwestern is coming off back-to-back winning seasons in the Big Ten. They face the challenge of replacing a quarterback that led them to lead the Big 10 in passing yardage. They have a favorable out of conference schedule and for the second consecutive year they miss out on playing Ohio State. How much noise can they make in the Big Ten? We reached out to the Northwestern blog Lake The Posts to find out more about how Northwestern will fare in 2010.
What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the team?
Strengths should be the O-line, WRs and LB units. NU is finally at a point where we reload talent in to the system as opposed to having a big drop-off in the spread at the skill positions. That is, of course with notable exception - RB - where we've been scuffling. The RB slot is a key part of the difference between having a great year and an average year. A lot of eyes are on the secondary which will be tested early and often as we lost a lot to graduation.
Looking at the schedule who will be the first major test?
Opening game - Vanderbilt. Why? Northwestern is synonymous with losing games it shouldn't in the non-conference (see Syracuse last year) and a road game in SEC territory, regardless of expectations of Vandy is still a true test. As Wildcat fans who support a team that tends to underachieve in non-conference and over-achieve in Big Ten play this is par for the course.
What team on the schedule do you fear the most?
Considering there is no Ohio State on the schedule I'm happy to say "none". There are several "payback" games to keep an eye on - notably Iowa at home and Wisconsin on the road. Simply put, we've owned the Hawkeyes the past several years and the yellow-clad Iowa fans who are plentiful in Chicago are pissed. They've got the game on Nov. 13 circled especially considering we ruined their undefeated season last year. Wisconsin and NU always seems to be entertaining and last year's upset of the Badgers propelled NU to a New Year's Day bowl. You know the Badgers and specifically john Clay - who fumbled on the game's final drive - will be looking for retribution.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
Probably Quentin Davie, LB. He's got a pro body and is really coming in to his own. He seems to have that intangible of incredible nose-for-the-ball closing speed. Corey Wootton and Sherrick McManis (CB) got all of the attention last year from the media, but I expect big things from Davie this year.
Who is the best offensive player on the team?
TBD. NU is in the same exact scenario on offense we were a year ago. Last year at this time, fans were left to ponder life after multi-year starter CJ Bacher at QB and the loss of a trio of senior WRs in Ross Lane, Rasheed Ward and Eric Peterman. A New Year's Bowl day appearance later and fans are lamenting how to replace QB Mike Kafka (Drafted by Philadelphia), and WRs Zeke Markshausen (went from 1 career reception to 90 in a season) and Andrew Brewer. Dan Persa has moxie at QB and like Kafka, is a huge threat with the run. There are high expectations of WR Jeremy Ebert who is finally healthy after a rough sophomore year. Sidney Stewart is a proven talent at WR as well.
Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?
See above - likely Davie or DE Vince Browne. Browne had a great
freshman year in part due to the disruption caused by Corey Wootton. He slid back a tad last year and is a key for pressure this year. Keep an eye on CB Jordan Mabin.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?
Obviously Dan Persa at QB whose major question (in addition to height) is his downfield arm to help stretch defenses (same EXACT question as last season). I'd also say Arby Fields at RB who is the incumbent at the 1-slot for RB right now. We simply have to get productivity out of the backfield which we did not last year.
Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year (freshman, redshirt freshman or JUCO)?
What's a "JUCO"? Kidding. We simply don't get those at NU. As for RS freshman, Drew Moulton made some waves in the Spring Game and will be getting some serious time at WR. I'd say there are three true freshmen to keep an eye on. One is WR Tony Jones who has the potential to make an instant impact at WR. Also, Venric Mark is a true speed threat who may get a chance to actually be a PR as a frosh which is an area we were once solid, but have failed to capitalize on in recent memory. Since the RB slot is wide open, RB Adonis Smith shouldn't be dismissed as finding his way on to the field. Fitz is famous for redshirting nearly every player so these three would have to really make impressions this summer.
Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
I think RS FR DE Davon Custis could make some noise backing up Vince Browne. As for true freshman, DE Chance Carter has some high expectations from fans, but I suspect the Evanston native will get the RS tag. Carter chose NU over Notre Dame and Nebraska and has the "instant" impact traits.
Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
Gut record is 7-5. Successful is easy - we win a bowl game and get the monkey off the back. I'd say 8-4 is very successful and above that is dream scenario for this team. Fitz finally has the program at a point where anything less than 7-5 is a major disappointment and with bowl appearances in every other year on average (2000, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009) getting to a bowl doesn't cut it anymore. We've got to get the "win".
Next Up: Minnesota Golden Gophers
2010 Previews
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, West Virginia Mountaineers
Big Ten- Michigan Wolverines, Purdue Boilermakers
Conference USA- Houston Cougars
MAC- Temple Owls
Strengths should be the O-line, WRs and LB units. NU is finally at a point where we reload talent in to the system as opposed to having a big drop-off in the spread at the skill positions. That is, of course with notable exception - RB - where we've been scuffling. The RB slot is a key part of the difference between having a great year and an average year. A lot of eyes are on the secondary which will be tested early and often as we lost a lot to graduation.
Looking at the schedule who will be the first major test?
Opening game - Vanderbilt. Why? Northwestern is synonymous with losing games it shouldn't in the non-conference (see Syracuse last year) and a road game in SEC territory, regardless of expectations of Vandy is still a true test. As Wildcat fans who support a team that tends to underachieve in non-conference and over-achieve in Big Ten play this is par for the course.
What team on the schedule do you fear the most?
Considering there is no Ohio State on the schedule I'm happy to say "none". There are several "payback" games to keep an eye on - notably Iowa at home and Wisconsin on the road. Simply put, we've owned the Hawkeyes the past several years and the yellow-clad Iowa fans who are plentiful in Chicago are pissed. They've got the game on Nov. 13 circled especially considering we ruined their undefeated season last year. Wisconsin and NU always seems to be entertaining and last year's upset of the Badgers propelled NU to a New Year's Day bowl. You know the Badgers and specifically john Clay - who fumbled on the game's final drive - will be looking for retribution.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
Probably Quentin Davie, LB. He's got a pro body and is really coming in to his own. He seems to have that intangible of incredible nose-for-the-ball closing speed. Corey Wootton and Sherrick McManis (CB) got all of the attention last year from the media, but I expect big things from Davie this year.
Who is the best offensive player on the team?
TBD. NU is in the same exact scenario on offense we were a year ago. Last year at this time, fans were left to ponder life after multi-year starter CJ Bacher at QB and the loss of a trio of senior WRs in Ross Lane, Rasheed Ward and Eric Peterman. A New Year's Bowl day appearance later and fans are lamenting how to replace QB Mike Kafka (Drafted by Philadelphia), and WRs Zeke Markshausen (went from 1 career reception to 90 in a season) and Andrew Brewer. Dan Persa has moxie at QB and like Kafka, is a huge threat with the run. There are high expectations of WR Jeremy Ebert who is finally healthy after a rough sophomore year. Sidney Stewart is a proven talent at WR as well.
Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?
See above - likely Davie or DE Vince Browne. Browne had a great
freshman year in part due to the disruption caused by Corey Wootton. He slid back a tad last year and is a key for pressure this year. Keep an eye on CB Jordan Mabin.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?
Obviously Dan Persa at QB whose major question (in addition to height) is his downfield arm to help stretch defenses (same EXACT question as last season). I'd also say Arby Fields at RB who is the incumbent at the 1-slot for RB right now. We simply have to get productivity out of the backfield which we did not last year.
Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year (freshman, redshirt freshman or JUCO)?
What's a "JUCO"? Kidding. We simply don't get those at NU. As for RS freshman, Drew Moulton made some waves in the Spring Game and will be getting some serious time at WR. I'd say there are three true freshmen to keep an eye on. One is WR Tony Jones who has the potential to make an instant impact at WR. Also, Venric Mark is a true speed threat who may get a chance to actually be a PR as a frosh which is an area we were once solid, but have failed to capitalize on in recent memory. Since the RB slot is wide open, RB Adonis Smith shouldn't be dismissed as finding his way on to the field. Fitz is famous for redshirting nearly every player so these three would have to really make impressions this summer.
Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
Gut record is 7-5. Successful is easy - we win a bowl game and get the monkey off the back. I'd say 8-4 is very successful and above that is dream scenario for this team. Fitz finally has the program at a point where anything less than 7-5 is a major disappointment and with bowl appearances in every other year on average (2000, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009) getting to a bowl doesn't cut it anymore. We've got to get the "win".
Next Up: Minnesota Golden Gophers
2010 Previews
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, West Virginia Mountaineers
Big Ten- Michigan Wolverines, Purdue Boilermakers
Conference USA- Houston Cougars
MAC- Temple Owls
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