NCAA Offensive Player of the Year:
Winner: QB Cameron Newton, Auburn
Newton took an 8-5 team and has them playing in the National Championship Game. He's the highest rated passer in all of College Football and he's 13th in rushing (including leading the SEC in rushing....as a QB).He has 20 TD running the football, 28 passing and he even caught a TD pass against Ole Miss. What more is there to say? He was amazing to watch. His stats were incredible and his highlights were even more jaw-dropping. He was a sensation.
Runner-Up: RB LaMichael James, Oregon
Honorable Mention: QB Andrew Luck (Stanford), QB Denard Robinson (Michigan), QB Dan Persa (Northwestern), QB Ryan Mallet (Arkansas), QB Kellen Moore (Boise St), QB Andy Dalton (TCU), WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma St)
NCAA Defensive Player of the Year:
Winner: DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
He led the Nation in sacks with 15 averaging 1.15 per game. He was second in the Nation (to Ryan Kerrigan of Purdue) with 25 tackles for loss.
Runner-Up: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
Honorable Mention: DE Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue), CB Patrick Peterson (LSU), CB Jaron Hosley (Virginia Tech), LB Von Miller (Texas A&M), LB Luke Kuechly (Boston College)
NCAA Coach of the Year:
Winner: Chip Kelly, Oregon
Kelly has really developed Oregon into an offensive juggernaut. They score the most points at 49.3 per game and also gain the most yards at 537 per game. But they aren't a one-dimensional football team as their defense also ranks 12th in points allowed at 18 per game. Kelly has this machine running and he just fills in the pieces as needed.
Runner-Up: Jim Harbaugh, Stanford
Honorable Mention: Randy Edsall (UConn), Bret Bielema (Wisconsin), Gene Chizik (Auburn), Michael Haywood (Miami/OH), Mark Dantonio (Michigan State), Dan Mullen (Mississippi State), Doug Marrone (Syracuse), Gary Patterson (TCU), Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State)
NCAA Coordinator of the Year:
Winner: Gus Malzahn, Auburn
Sure Malzahn has Cam Newton to thank but Malzahn did a great job this year molding his offense into an offense that best fits Cam Newton and his personnel. Malzahn would probably rather throw the ball all over the field but he saw what would help his team win and made some tweaks as the season went on.Without Malzahn, Auburn is not playing in the National Championship Game...it's that simple.
Runner-Up: Dana Holgorsen, Oklahoma State
Honorable Mention: Dick Bumpas (TCU), Mark Helfich (Oregon), Scott Shafer (Syracuse), John Chavis (LSU), Paul Chryst (Wisconsin), Bryan Harsin (Boise State), Kirby Smart (Alabama)
SEC Player of the Year:
Winner: QB Cam Newton, Auburn
Do we need to re-hash this? If he's the NCAA Offensive Player of the Year then we are also taking him for SEC Player of the Year.
Runner-Up: QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
Honorable Mention: DT Nick Fairley (Auburn), WR Alshon Jeffrey (South Carolina), RB Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina), CB Patrick Peterson (LSU), WR Julio Jones (Alabama)
Big Ten Player of the Year:
Winner: QB Denard Robinson, Michigan
This was a very tight race between Robinson and Persa but ultimately Robinson stats were just too good to ignore. As a QB Robinson rushed for 1702 yards (second to only Mikel Leshoure of Illinois who rushed for 4 more yards than Denard) averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Robinson also threw for 2570 yards. Without Robinson, Michigan doesn't go to a bowl game.
Runner-UP: QB Dan Persa, Northwestern
Honorable Mention: DE Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue), RB Mikel Leshoure (Illinois), QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State), QB Scott Tolzien (Wisconsin), QB Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), WR Dan Sanzenbacher (Ohio State), RB Montee Ball (Wisconsin), RB James White (Wisconsin)
Big 12 Player of the Year:
Co-Winner: WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
Blackmon finished his freshman season with 20 receptions for 2 TD. This year he had 111 receptions for 1782 yards (and that's missing a game) and was a big reason for Oklahoma State exceeding everybody's expectations this year. Blackmon finished 3rd in the Nation in receptions, 2nd in receiving yards, 2nd in receptions per game and 1st in TD. He was a difference maker in the Big 12.
Co-Winner: QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma
What a difference a year makes. Landry really blossomed this year and helped the Sooners rebound from a disappointing 8-5 season to winning the Big 12 and playing in a BCS bowl game. Landry finished 2nd in the Nation in Passing Yards (only Bryant Moniz of Hawai'i had more) and passing TD with 38 (2nd again to Moniz).
Honorable Mention: WR Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma), QB Robert Griffin (Baylor), QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State), RB Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State), RB Daniel Thomas (Kansas State), LB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
ACC Player of the Year:
Winner: QB Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech
The season could not have started out worse for Virginia Tech as they lost to Boise State and then fell victim of an unfathomable upset at the hands of James Madison. Behind Tyrod's Senior Leadership the Hokies rebounded and won 11 straight regular season games and went undefeated in the ACC. Taylor passed for 2743 yards and had a great TD to INT ratio (24 TD and only 5 INT). He finished the year as the highest rated passer in the ACC (a conference that also includes Christian Ponder, Russell Wilson, Kyle Parker and T.J. Yates). Tyrod also placed in the Top 15 in the ACC in rushing as he finished with 659 yards and 5 TD running the football.
Runner-Up: DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
Honorable Mention: QB Russell Wilson (NC State), QB T.J. Yates (UNC), CB Jayron Hosley (VT), RB Montel Harris (BC), WR Torrey Smith (Maryland)
Big East Player of the Year
Winner: RB Jordan Todman (UConn)
UConn rode Todman to their first BCS birth and Big East Championship. Todman had an incredible year and led the Big East in rushing and came in 3rd Nationally (only 11 yards behind Mikel Leshoure and 7 behind Denard Robinson) despite missing the game against Buffalo. Todman was a symbol of consistency as he rushed for over 100 yards in 10 of the 12 games he played and his lowest output of the year was 80 yards.
Runner-Up: QB Geno Smith (WVU)
Honorable Mention: RB Bilal Powell (Louisville), QB Ryan Nassib (Syracuse), WR Armon Binns (Cincy), DE Bruce Irvin (WVU), DT Jabaal Sheard (Pitt), CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson (UConn)
Pac-10 Player of the Year
Winner: RB LaMicheal James, Oregon
James finished 3rd in the Heisman voting behind Cam Newton and Andrew Luck but we picked James over Luck (by the narrowest of margins). James was a Tour de Force for Oregon running up 1682 yards at 5.99 yards per clip and also scoring 21 TDs. James did all of this while also missing a game against one of the weakest opponents on Oregon's schedule. Like Todman, James was a model of consistency gaining over 100 yards in 9 of Oregon's 11 games played (so far) and he also gained over 90 yards in every game he played.
Runner-Up: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
Honorable Mention: QB Darron Thomas (Oregon), RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Oregon St), QB Nick Foles (Arizona), WR Juron Criner (Arizona), WR Jeff Maehl (Oregon)
Non-BCS Conference Player of the Year
Winner: QB Kellen Moore, Boise State
Moore has done everything that Boise State has asked him to do. He engineered a game winning drive in the season opening victory against Virginia Tech and put them in the same position against Nevada before a very make-able FG was missed. Moore was 2nd to only Cam Newton in Passer Rating and posted an incredible TD/INT ratio (35 to 6).
Runner-Up: QB Andy Dalton, TCU
Honorable Mention: QB Colin Kapaernick (Nevada), QB Bryant Moniz (Hawai'i), QB Dominique Davis (ECU), RB Vai Taua (Nevada), QB Ryan Lindley (SDSU), QB Chandler Harnish (NIU), WR Greg Salas (Hawai'i)
Showing posts with label Auburn Tigers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Auburn Tigers. Show all posts
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Friday, January 7, 2011
Bowl Predictions Part 4 (1/7-1/10)
Here is the final part of our Bowl Season Predictions including the National Championship Game. In case you missed the first, second, and third rounds of bowl predictions just click on the links to catch up on what you missed. As of the printing of this blog Ross is 16-12 and I am 17-11 in our predictions.
Cotton Bowl (1/7 8pm on FOX)
LSU (10-2) vs. Texas A&M (9-3)
Kevin's Prediction: LSU 28 TEXAS A&M 27
As an SEC homer it's really tough for me to pick against the SEC. Especially against the SEC West. Yes, Arkansas lost but Ohio State was playing 5 guys who should have been sitting and Bobby Petrino is a gutless coward who deserves to lose every game he coaches. Back to LSU...there is just something about them. Under CRAZY Les Miles they just find a way to win. They have some pretty impressive victories this year against Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, UNC and West Virginia. LSU's two losses were to Auburn and Arkansas and they haven't lost by more than 8 points all year long. A&M went through a rough stretch earlier this year when they lost 3 straight (also lost to Arkansas) but they have rebounded to win 6 straight including impressive wins against Oklahoma and Nebraska. This one is a coin flip and in a coin flip you go with the guy with the luck.
Ross's Prediction: LSU 27 TEXAS A&M 24
Cotton Bowl (1/7 8pm on FOX)
LSU (10-2) vs. Texas A&M (9-3)
Kevin's Prediction: LSU 28 TEXAS A&M 27
As an SEC homer it's really tough for me to pick against the SEC. Especially against the SEC West. Yes, Arkansas lost but Ohio State was playing 5 guys who should have been sitting and Bobby Petrino is a gutless coward who deserves to lose every game he coaches. Back to LSU...there is just something about them. Under CRAZY Les Miles they just find a way to win. They have some pretty impressive victories this year against Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, UNC and West Virginia. LSU's two losses were to Auburn and Arkansas and they haven't lost by more than 8 points all year long. A&M went through a rough stretch earlier this year when they lost 3 straight (also lost to Arkansas) but they have rebounded to win 6 straight including impressive wins against Oklahoma and Nebraska. This one is a coin flip and in a coin flip you go with the guy with the luck.
Ross's Prediction: LSU 27 TEXAS A&M 24
The Big 12 has enjoyed an underwhelming bowl season (except for the efforts of the Oklahoma schools, really), which casts some doubt on the strength of Texas A&M. LSU, meanwhile, emerged with 10 wins from the toughest division in college football (the SEC West) -- no small feat, that, and a big reason why I'll back them to get the win here. But it will be close because that's the only way Les Miles know how to play 'em, with the Tigers pulling out a win after an onside kick, a fake punt, and a flea-flicker on a fourth-down conversion. Prepare for the latest Miracle now.
BBVA Compass Bowl (1/8 Noon on ESPN)
Pittsburgh (7-5) vs. Kentucky (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: PITT 27 KENTUCKY 17
Kentucky didn't exactly close the year with a bang as they went 2-3 with their wins coming over mighty Vandy and Charleston Southern. Oh yeah, and Mike Hartline went out and got himself suspended for this game. If Hartline was playing I probably take Kentucky by 10, but he's not. Watch out for Randall Cobb but I think Pittsburgh, despite all of their coaching issues, finds a way to win this one.
Ross's Prediction: KENTUCKY 31, PITT 17
On one hand, you have a member of the SEC East, a division so mediocre its teams have gone 1-3 and lost to teams from C-USA and the ACC. On the other hand, you have a member of the Big East, a conference that is seemingly perpetually mediocre -- and especially so this year. Oh, and that team has major head coaching drama. The SEC East isn't very good -- but even they can beat an also-ran from the Big East that's mired in controversy.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (1/9 9pm on ESPN)
Nevada (12-1) vs. Boston College (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: NEVADA 27 BC 21
BC's season has been one of streaks. They won two to start off the year, then they lost 5 straight games (all to bowl teams) and then they finished up with 5 straight wins (beating 3 really bad teams and 2 decent teams). All-in-all BC has had a disappointing year from a team that CFBZ picked to come in second place in the Coastal Division. Nevada has feasted on powers like Eastern Washington, Colorado State, Idaho, UNLV, San Jose State, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech (where can Georgia get one of these schedules?). But they've also won a few games against teams that actually play football (Cal, BYU, Fresno State and Boise State). I have a tough time picking a team to win that lost to Hawaii but I'm going to do it anyway. Kaepernick wins this one for Nevada in a nail-biter.
Ross's Prediction: NEVADA 38, BOSTON COLLEGE 20
Nevada got bushwhacked in their bowl game a year ago, but I don't think that will happen to this year's bunch. B.C. has a quality defense and has had an eon to prepare for the Nevada offense, but I think Colin Kaepernick and Vaia Taua will end their Wolfpack careers on a high note, with a decisive bowl win.
BCS National Championship Game (1/10 8:30pm on ESPN)
Auburn (13-0) vs. Oregon (12-0)
Kevin's Prediction: AUBURN 34 OREGON 28
I've pretty much been a non-believer in Auburn all year long up until the SEC Championship Game. I think I picked them to lose in pretty much every game up until that game. While Auburn is very close to a one-man team they do have a good supporting cast. Cam Newton has simply been amazing this year. They guy just doesn't feel the pressure. They learned how to win early in the year by holding on to beat Mississippi State and surviving Clemson in OT. They came from 13 down and forced 4 4th quarter turnovers to beat Spurrier and South Carolina in their regular season date. They held off a late rally by a game Kentucky squad. Maybe the game where people started taking them seriously was when they put 65 up against Arkansas in a PS3 like game. Auburn beat a good LSU team in a close game. Georgia jumped up on Auburn 21 to 7 in the 1st quarter but Cam and Auburn didn't blink and came back and won by 3 scores. The best comeback of the season was the one against Alabama. People turned off their TV sets after Bama took a 24-0 lead in the 2nd quarter. But Auburn showed us what they are made of and came back and beat the Tide by 1 point. If there is one thing I've learned about Auburn this year it's not to pick against them. They have a guy with big play power and incredible moxie in Cam Newton on the offensive side of the ball and they have the dirtiest, filthiest, nastiest defensive player in the game in Nick Fairley. Fairley would blindside his grandma after the whistle if he thought it would help his team win a game. Dude speared Aaron Murray in the back of his spine with his helmet five seconds after Murray released a pass (would have been a multiple game game suspension if it happened in the NFL). I really like Oregon ,but I Auburn has proved this year that I can't pick against them (as much as I want to).
Ross's Prediction: AUBURN 45, OREGON 42
I hope you like scoring because this should be a point orgy. Granted, we've said that in the past and wound up with a defensive struggle (see: Florida-Oklahoma two years ago), but this match-up seems unlikely to produce such an odd result; these two offenses are so potent and so high-powered that it's hard to see them getting slowed for long -- especially against defenses that aren't exactly ironclad. The thing to watch here will be the pace: Oregon wants to play at a furiously high tempo, and while Auburn is also capable of playing at a high tempo, they may want to slow things down a little to enable their defense to have a shot at making some plays. Like so many recent title games, this match-up pits one Heisman finalist (Cam Newton) against another (LaMichael James), although Oregon's success will probably depend more on how Darron Thomas fares throwing the ball than anything. Oregon has been a breathtaking team to watch this year and they've been very good -- but it's too hard to bet against the SEC at this point, or to pick against Cam Newton. I think he has the best performance in a title game since Vince Young five years ago and leaves us all staring, slack-jawed and wondrous at what we just saw.
I hope you like scoring because this should be a point orgy. Granted, we've said that in the past and wound up with a defensive struggle (see: Florida-Oklahoma two years ago), but this match-up seems unlikely to produce such an odd result; these two offenses are so potent and so high-powered that it's hard to see them getting slowed for long -- especially against defenses that aren't exactly ironclad. The thing to watch here will be the pace: Oregon wants to play at a furiously high tempo, and while Auburn is also capable of playing at a high tempo, they may want to slow things down a little to enable their defense to have a shot at making some plays. Like so many recent title games, this match-up pits one Heisman finalist (Cam Newton) against another (LaMichael James), although Oregon's success will probably depend more on how Darron Thomas fares throwing the ball than anything. Oregon has been a breathtaking team to watch this year and they've been very good -- but it's too hard to bet against the SEC at this point, or to pick against Cam Newton. I think he has the best performance in a title game since Vince Young five years ago and leaves us all staring, slack-jawed and wondrous at what we just saw.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Conference Championship Game Predictions
SEC: Auburn (12-0) vs. South Carolina (9-3)
Kevin: OK, everybody who had Auburn vs South Carolina at the beginning of the year raise your hands. Seriously, the odds of this happening had to be very narrow at the beginning of the season. Florida and Georgia both under-performed this year and South Carolina beat both of them to take the SEC East Crown. Auburn had a much tougher road as they are in the same division as 4 other Top 25 teams but still finished the year unbeaten. All year I was waiting for Auburn to lose but as the year went on Auburn seemed to get stronger. They fell behind against Georgia and Alabama but showed a lot of mental toughness and came back to win both of those games. It's just hard to bet against Auburn right now. That being said, I will be rooting against them as I just can't root for Nick Unfairley after his repeated late hits to my redshirt freshman QB Aaron Murray.
Prediction: AUBURN 31 SOUTH CAROLINA 24
Ross: On one hand, you have an Auburn team that seems like a team of destiny after the way they came back from the dead against Alabama and pulled off an incredible comeback win. They also happen to have the best player in college football this year (Cam Newton), who's playing at an incredibly high level. And they have one of the best defensive players in college football, too, in Nick Fairley. On the other hand, you have a South Carolina team that seems to have flipped a switch in the last three weeks, turning in three straight dominant performances, including blowout wins over Florida (to clinch the SEC East) and Clemson (to win a rivalry game). Stephen Garcia's not turning the ball over, Marcus Lattimore is running like a man possessed, Alshon Jeffery is the best receiver no one talks about, and the defense is stoning people. Oh, and they did come awful close to knocking off Auburn when they played earlier this year, until Newton Hulked up in the fourth quarter and the Cocks helped out by turning the ball over four times. So... they could win, right? Yeah, they could, but only a fool would bet against Cam Newton at this point -- and I don't feel like being a fool.
Prediction: AUBURN 38, SOUTH CAROLINA 31
Big 12: Oklahoma (10-2) vs. Nebraska (10-2)
Kevin: This is a HUGE game for Oklahoma and the Big 12. Nobody in the Big 12 wants to see Nebraska win the Big 12 title in their last season in the conference. OU is riding a 3-game winning streak over Texas Tech, Baylor and rival Okie State. Nebraska comes into the game having lost to Texas A&M just before blowing out Colorado. I really don't have a feel for this one but I just think OU is going to tough it out.
Prediction: OKLAHOMA 27 NEBRASKA 24
Ross: How fitting that the last-ever Big 12 Championship Game features the two teams that defined the conference that birthed the Big 12 -- the Big 8. Oklahoma and Nebraska had one of the game's most legendary rivalries in the 70s and 80s and while it was unavoidably diminished when the Big 12 was formed and they stopped playing each other every year, it's still a pretty good thing -- especially when both teams are good, which is the case this year. Neither team is great (they each have two losses for a reason), but they've both been very impressive for stretches of the season. Oklahoma seems to be rounding into form at the end of the season, especially on offense (three straight efforts of 40+ points) and for all of Bob Stoops' failures in BCS bowls, he's been a killer in the Big 12 Championship Game (5-1). On the other hand, Nebraska has a far better defense than what Oklahoma has been playing. The key for them will be whether Taylor Martinez is healthy enough to be effective in this game -- Nebraska blew out Colorado without him, but they aren't going to get solid performances from the usually lousy Cody Green or two touchdown passes from a running back (Rex Burkhead) too often. Defense usually wins championships, but going against Stoops in a game like this is usually a losing proposition.
Prediction: OKLAHOMA 27, NEBRASKA 20
ACC: FSU (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (10-2)
Kevin: FSU showed some fire that I didn't know they had in them last week when they took Herban Meyer and Florida to the woodshed. That being said, Virginia Tech is on a 10-game winning streak. Who would have thought that after falling Boise State and then James Madison (yes, James Madison) that Virginia Tech would be undefeated in the ACC. I can't bet against the Hokies in this one.
Prediction: VIRGINIA TECH 34 FLORIDA STATE 21
Prediction: VIRGINIA TECH 28, FLORIDA STATE 24
Thursday, November 11, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: November 11-13
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 31-17
#24 KANSAS STATE (6-3, 3-3) @ #17 MISSOURI (7-2, 3-2) (FSN, 12:30pm EST)
In all likelihood, this is the battle to determine the runner-up to Nebraska this year, since the Cornhuskers already have wins over both the Wildcats and the Tigers; Nebraska would need to lose two of their final three remaining games. Two of their final three games are home dates with Kansas and Colorado; a loss in one of those games doesn't seem hugely probable at all. Thus, welcome to the Big 12 North runner-up derby. K-State is coming off a total beatdown of Texas and while Texas may be a huge disappointment and underachiever this year, there's still something to be said for so thoroughly dismantling them. On the flip side, Missouri is coming off a come-from-ahead loss to Texas Tech in which they leapt out to a 17-0 lead and then apparently went home, letting Texas Tech score the next 24 points and win the game. Mizzou has lost two in a row (they lost to Nebraska the week before last) and could use a win here to at least keep alive the hope of a 10-win season and a decent bowl trip. K-State has been brutally one-dimensional on offense (run run run), but it's hard to see that being enough against a surprisingly good Mizzou defense.
THE PICK: MISSOURI 24, KANSAS STATE 14
#20 VIRGINIA TECH (7-2, 5-0) @ NORTH CAROLINA (6-3, 3-2) (ABC/ESPN, 3:30pm EST)
For all intents and purposes, Virginia Tech has all but locked up their umpteenth Coastal division title since the league split into divisions in 2005 (OK, technically their fourth division title in the last six years). They would need to lose two of their final three games to not claim the Coastal crown yet again; anything's possible in the topsy-turvy world of the ACC, but that seems like a tall order, given how well VT is generally playing now. North Carolina scored a big (and surprising) road win over Florida State when FSU once again fell victim to "Wide Right," but it may be asking a lot for their battered and beleagured team to come up with a similar effort against a rested VT team. Here's guessing they keep it close for a while, but VT is able to pull away in the second half.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH 27, NORTH CAROLINA 17
PENN STATE (6-3, 3-2) @ #9 OHIO STATE (8-1, 4-1) (ABC/ESPN, 3:30pm EST)
A month ago, this game looked like a total laugher for OSU, another speedbump on their way to the (potential) conference-deciding showdown with Iowa on 11/20. Then Penn State's freshman QB Robert Bolden got hurt and PSU turned to little-used walk-on QB Matt McGloin. Improbably, McGloin sparked the offense and has led them to three straight wins and rejuvenated hope of a decent season in Happy Valley. Mind you, those wins do come with some caveats -- they came against Minnesota, Michigan, and Northwestern, three of the worst pass defenses in the league (and, in the case of Michigan and Minnesota, defenses that frankly aren't good at much of anything). Ohio State represents a quantum leap in quality from what Penn State has been playing the past few weeks, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Two of those three wins also came in the friendly confines of Happy Valley, while the lone road win was in Minneapolis -- not exactly hostile territory these days. Columbus, OH, on the other hand, will be very hostile territory. OSU has occasionally looked a bit shaky on the road, but they've been positively murderous at home and they're going to be too much for an inexperienced PSU team. McGloin may be able to keep it close for a bit, but that's about it.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE 31, PENN STATE 13
GEORIGA (5-5, 3-4) @ #1 AUBURN (10-0, 6-0) (CBS, 3:30pm EST)
Ah, the first of our SEC triple-header to close out this week. This game looked intriguing a few weeks ago, but primarily as a potential trap game for Auburn. There were reasons to like Georgia anyway -- an offense that's become increasingly dynamic over the course of the season, an extra week to prepare, the hoary old "anything can happen in a rivalry game" chestnut, the possibility of Auburn looking ahead to Alabama -- but then Newtongate happened and things got even crazier. At this point, it's almost hard to remember that Auburn ACTUALLY HAS TO PLAY A GAME ON SATURDAY. With probably the biggest news story of the year swirling around them and a potential national title shot still on the line, the Auburn players have to go out and perform against a Georgia team with nothing to lose. Can you say "pressure"? If he even plays, will the controversy surrounding Newton derail his (and Auburn's) incredible season? It's impossible to say. Literally, any result in this game seems plausible; Auburn could come out flat and distracted and get smoked by a Georgia team better than its 5-5 record. Conversely, they could come out pissed off and motivated and destroy Georgia. Or it could be a nail-biter won by either team -- or anything in-between. For now, I'm assuming that Newtown plays and that he comes out using the controversy as motivational fodder. But that could certainly be dead wrong.
THE PICK: AUBURN 38, GEORGIA 34
#23 SOUTH CAROLINA (6-3, 4-3) @ #22 FLORIDA (6-3, 4-3) (ESPN, 7:15pm EST)
Two teams going in opposite directions. After an ugly 3-game losing streak, Florida's rebounded to win two in a row and in the 55-14 rout of Vanderbilt last week, the offense actually looked (gasp) good. Meanwhile, South Carolina got blasted on its own field by Arkansas and lost for the second time in four games, with the two losses sandwiching unimpressive wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee. On the other hand, the counter-argument is that South Carolina sandbagged the Arkansas game because they knew it had no bearing on their main goal, an SEC East title. The division title comes down to this game, with the winner getting the honor (?) of meeting Auburn (or possibly LSU) in the SEC Championship Game. The key question for South Carolina is whether or not they can turn the clock back a month and play like they did when they stomped a mudhole all over Alabama and established themselves as the dominant team in the East. They've dozed through their four games since then (going 2-2, as noted) and haven't looked remotely as dominant. Florida remains a flawed team -- let me know when the offense looks menacing against something other than the pussycat Vanderbilt defense -- and for once, South Carolina may actually have the more talented team, at least in terms of starters. But it's hard to bet against Urban Meyer in big games and easy to bet against perpetual choke artists like South Carolina -- especially when their own performances over the past month have been so listless.
THE PICK: FLORIDA 28, SOUTH CAROLINA 24
#19 MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-2, 3-2) @ #12 ALABAMA (7-2, 4-2) (ESPN2, 7:15pm EST)
Mississippi State has somewhat amazingly -- and quietly -- remained in the polls for a full month now. Mississippi State! If you had told me before the season that at this point in the season Mississippi State and Alabama would have the same record I... would not have believed you. That said, same record = teams of equal quality. Mississippi State's best win was over a reeling Florida team; since then they also have a pair of narrow wins over UAB and Kentucky and an offense that can only do one thing well: run the ball. Their defense is stout, but against a pissed-off Alabama offense that may not matter. Bama at home, at night, off a loss... hard to see this one going well for Mississippi State, no matter how surprising they've been this season.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, MISSISSIPPI STATE 13
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 31-17
#24 KANSAS STATE (6-3, 3-3) @ #17 MISSOURI (7-2, 3-2) (FSN, 12:30pm EST)
In all likelihood, this is the battle to determine the runner-up to Nebraska this year, since the Cornhuskers already have wins over both the Wildcats and the Tigers; Nebraska would need to lose two of their final three remaining games. Two of their final three games are home dates with Kansas and Colorado; a loss in one of those games doesn't seem hugely probable at all. Thus, welcome to the Big 12 North runner-up derby. K-State is coming off a total beatdown of Texas and while Texas may be a huge disappointment and underachiever this year, there's still something to be said for so thoroughly dismantling them. On the flip side, Missouri is coming off a come-from-ahead loss to Texas Tech in which they leapt out to a 17-0 lead and then apparently went home, letting Texas Tech score the next 24 points and win the game. Mizzou has lost two in a row (they lost to Nebraska the week before last) and could use a win here to at least keep alive the hope of a 10-win season and a decent bowl trip. K-State has been brutally one-dimensional on offense (run run run), but it's hard to see that being enough against a surprisingly good Mizzou defense.
THE PICK: MISSOURI 24, KANSAS STATE 14
#20 VIRGINIA TECH (7-2, 5-0) @ NORTH CAROLINA (6-3, 3-2) (ABC/ESPN, 3:30pm EST)
For all intents and purposes, Virginia Tech has all but locked up their umpteenth Coastal division title since the league split into divisions in 2005 (OK, technically their fourth division title in the last six years). They would need to lose two of their final three games to not claim the Coastal crown yet again; anything's possible in the topsy-turvy world of the ACC, but that seems like a tall order, given how well VT is generally playing now. North Carolina scored a big (and surprising) road win over Florida State when FSU once again fell victim to "Wide Right," but it may be asking a lot for their battered and beleagured team to come up with a similar effort against a rested VT team. Here's guessing they keep it close for a while, but VT is able to pull away in the second half.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH 27, NORTH CAROLINA 17
PENN STATE (6-3, 3-2) @ #9 OHIO STATE (8-1, 4-1) (ABC/ESPN, 3:30pm EST)
A month ago, this game looked like a total laugher for OSU, another speedbump on their way to the (potential) conference-deciding showdown with Iowa on 11/20. Then Penn State's freshman QB Robert Bolden got hurt and PSU turned to little-used walk-on QB Matt McGloin. Improbably, McGloin sparked the offense and has led them to three straight wins and rejuvenated hope of a decent season in Happy Valley. Mind you, those wins do come with some caveats -- they came against Minnesota, Michigan, and Northwestern, three of the worst pass defenses in the league (and, in the case of Michigan and Minnesota, defenses that frankly aren't good at much of anything). Ohio State represents a quantum leap in quality from what Penn State has been playing the past few weeks, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Two of those three wins also came in the friendly confines of Happy Valley, while the lone road win was in Minneapolis -- not exactly hostile territory these days. Columbus, OH, on the other hand, will be very hostile territory. OSU has occasionally looked a bit shaky on the road, but they've been positively murderous at home and they're going to be too much for an inexperienced PSU team. McGloin may be able to keep it close for a bit, but that's about it.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE 31, PENN STATE 13
GEORIGA (5-5, 3-4) @ #1 AUBURN (10-0, 6-0) (CBS, 3:30pm EST)
Ah, the first of our SEC triple-header to close out this week. This game looked intriguing a few weeks ago, but primarily as a potential trap game for Auburn. There were reasons to like Georgia anyway -- an offense that's become increasingly dynamic over the course of the season, an extra week to prepare, the hoary old "anything can happen in a rivalry game" chestnut, the possibility of Auburn looking ahead to Alabama -- but then Newtongate happened and things got even crazier. At this point, it's almost hard to remember that Auburn ACTUALLY HAS TO PLAY A GAME ON SATURDAY. With probably the biggest news story of the year swirling around them and a potential national title shot still on the line, the Auburn players have to go out and perform against a Georgia team with nothing to lose. Can you say "pressure"? If he even plays, will the controversy surrounding Newton derail his (and Auburn's) incredible season? It's impossible to say. Literally, any result in this game seems plausible; Auburn could come out flat and distracted and get smoked by a Georgia team better than its 5-5 record. Conversely, they could come out pissed off and motivated and destroy Georgia. Or it could be a nail-biter won by either team -- or anything in-between. For now, I'm assuming that Newtown plays and that he comes out using the controversy as motivational fodder. But that could certainly be dead wrong.
THE PICK: AUBURN 38, GEORGIA 34
#23 SOUTH CAROLINA (6-3, 4-3) @ #22 FLORIDA (6-3, 4-3) (ESPN, 7:15pm EST)
Two teams going in opposite directions. After an ugly 3-game losing streak, Florida's rebounded to win two in a row and in the 55-14 rout of Vanderbilt last week, the offense actually looked (gasp) good. Meanwhile, South Carolina got blasted on its own field by Arkansas and lost for the second time in four games, with the two losses sandwiching unimpressive wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee. On the other hand, the counter-argument is that South Carolina sandbagged the Arkansas game because they knew it had no bearing on their main goal, an SEC East title. The division title comes down to this game, with the winner getting the honor (?) of meeting Auburn (or possibly LSU) in the SEC Championship Game. The key question for South Carolina is whether or not they can turn the clock back a month and play like they did when they stomped a mudhole all over Alabama and established themselves as the dominant team in the East. They've dozed through their four games since then (going 2-2, as noted) and haven't looked remotely as dominant. Florida remains a flawed team -- let me know when the offense looks menacing against something other than the pussycat Vanderbilt defense -- and for once, South Carolina may actually have the more talented team, at least in terms of starters. But it's hard to bet against Urban Meyer in big games and easy to bet against perpetual choke artists like South Carolina -- especially when their own performances over the past month have been so listless.
THE PICK: FLORIDA 28, SOUTH CAROLINA 24
#19 MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-2, 3-2) @ #12 ALABAMA (7-2, 4-2) (ESPN2, 7:15pm EST)
Mississippi State has somewhat amazingly -- and quietly -- remained in the polls for a full month now. Mississippi State! If you had told me before the season that at this point in the season Mississippi State and Alabama would have the same record I... would not have believed you. That said, same record = teams of equal quality. Mississippi State's best win was over a reeling Florida team; since then they also have a pair of narrow wins over UAB and Kentucky and an offense that can only do one thing well: run the ball. Their defense is stout, but against a pissed-off Alabama offense that may not matter. Bama at home, at night, off a loss... hard to see this one going well for Mississippi State, no matter how surprising they've been this season.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, MISSISSIPPI STATE 13
Keys To Victory: Georgia at Auburn
What a wild ride it's been for Georgia this year and for Auburn this last several days. Georgia comes into this game at 5-5 but having won 4 of their last 5 ball games. Auburn comes into the game undefeated and ranked #2 in the current BCS Standings. Auburn was having a dream season (and still could be) but has recently seen it start to derail due to allegations over Cam Newton and his father. This is the "Deep South's Oldest Rivalry" as they have played 113 times with Auburn leading the series 53-52-8. This series has been so close that Georgia leads in total points scored in the series by only 56 points after 113 games! Auburn comes into this game as the odds-on favorite as they are a National Championship contender and Georgia has faltered and has only won half of their games. That being said, Georgia has won the last 4 games in this series and Mark Richt is 6-3 against Auburn with a 3-1 record at Auburn. Here is what Georgia needs to do to win this game:
ESTABLISH THE RUN AND CONTROL THE CLOCK
Georgia's best defense against Auburn's high powered attack and Cam Newton might just be to keep them off the field. Statistically Auburn is pretty good against the run as they are 18th Nationally giving up 114 yards per game. That being said, Georgia is ranked 14th Nationally and we've seen them give up some big yardage on the ground to the likes of South Carolina, Colorado and Mississippi State. Georgia needs to establish Washaun Ealey and Caleb King early and then work off of the play-action pass and get the ball to it's playmakers: A.J. Green (85 rec yards/game and 7 TD in 6 games), Kris Durham (9th in the Nation at 19.7 ypc), Orson Charles and Tavarres King (3rd in the Nation at 20.4 ypc). Redshirt Freshman Aaron Murray has shown a lot of poise and moxie this year and is currently the 18th ranked QB in terms of passer efficiency in the nation. Murray had a tough first half against Florida but battled back to come very close to leading Georgia to a come from behind win. Murray has to come out poised and settled in the first half of this game as the atmosphere will be wild. The more Georgia can control the clock the more it's defense will be rested and fresh when Cam and Auburn have the ball.
WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE
Georgia has done a much better job this year than they did last year in terms of turnovers. In 2009, Georgia finished 118th out of 120 teams. This year Georgia is 21st in the country in turnover margin. Unfortunately, Georgia lost the turnover battle against Florida and that was the single deciding factor in their loss in Jacksonville. Georgia turned the ball over 4 times and got just 1 turnover and they lost the game in Overtime. Georgia needs to protect the ball against Auburn and not put themselves in a position where they have to defend on a short field.
FINISH DRIVES
When you are playing an undefeated team that is in the National Championship hunt there is no settling for Field Goals. Georgia needs to attack and they need to score Touchdowns. Auburn's defense has given up some points this year (43 to Arkansas, 34 to Kentucky, 31 to Mississippi) as they rank 55th in scoring defense. Georgia has had 47 red zone attempts this year but has settled for a FG in 27% of these situations. This is a game where Georgia needs to go for the jugular when they smell blood.
I think those are the 3 biggest things Georgia can do to win this football game. I also think it's important for Georgia not to get down early. The Auburn fans are looking for an opportunity to let out their emotions. If Georgia can get up early they could calm the beasts that will be in the stands on Saturday. If Auburn gets up by a score or two early it will be total pandemonium. I also think Special Teams will be very important. Georgia needs to get points out of their Special Teams, and I already mentioned that I don't want them to settle for FGs so that means that Brandon Boykin and Brandon Smith need to make something happen. I think Georgia has a legitimate shot to win this game but right now I am leaning towards Auburn winning this game by about 10 points. Despite losing 5 games this year Georgia has only lost by a total of 35 points and their biggest loss came by only 12 points. Georgia will be in this game. Can they make the plays to shock the Top 25 and their rival?
ESTABLISH THE RUN AND CONTROL THE CLOCK
Georgia's best defense against Auburn's high powered attack and Cam Newton might just be to keep them off the field. Statistically Auburn is pretty good against the run as they are 18th Nationally giving up 114 yards per game. That being said, Georgia is ranked 14th Nationally and we've seen them give up some big yardage on the ground to the likes of South Carolina, Colorado and Mississippi State. Georgia needs to establish Washaun Ealey and Caleb King early and then work off of the play-action pass and get the ball to it's playmakers: A.J. Green (85 rec yards/game and 7 TD in 6 games), Kris Durham (9th in the Nation at 19.7 ypc), Orson Charles and Tavarres King (3rd in the Nation at 20.4 ypc). Redshirt Freshman Aaron Murray has shown a lot of poise and moxie this year and is currently the 18th ranked QB in terms of passer efficiency in the nation. Murray had a tough first half against Florida but battled back to come very close to leading Georgia to a come from behind win. Murray has to come out poised and settled in the first half of this game as the atmosphere will be wild. The more Georgia can control the clock the more it's defense will be rested and fresh when Cam and Auburn have the ball.
WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE
Georgia has done a much better job this year than they did last year in terms of turnovers. In 2009, Georgia finished 118th out of 120 teams. This year Georgia is 21st in the country in turnover margin. Unfortunately, Georgia lost the turnover battle against Florida and that was the single deciding factor in their loss in Jacksonville. Georgia turned the ball over 4 times and got just 1 turnover and they lost the game in Overtime. Georgia needs to protect the ball against Auburn and not put themselves in a position where they have to defend on a short field.
FINISH DRIVES
When you are playing an undefeated team that is in the National Championship hunt there is no settling for Field Goals. Georgia needs to attack and they need to score Touchdowns. Auburn's defense has given up some points this year (43 to Arkansas, 34 to Kentucky, 31 to Mississippi) as they rank 55th in scoring defense. Georgia has had 47 red zone attempts this year but has settled for a FG in 27% of these situations. This is a game where Georgia needs to go for the jugular when they smell blood.
I think those are the 3 biggest things Georgia can do to win this football game. I also think it's important for Georgia not to get down early. The Auburn fans are looking for an opportunity to let out their emotions. If Georgia can get up early they could calm the beasts that will be in the stands on Saturday. If Auburn gets up by a score or two early it will be total pandemonium. I also think Special Teams will be very important. Georgia needs to get points out of their Special Teams, and I already mentioned that I don't want them to settle for FGs so that means that Brandon Boykin and Brandon Smith need to make something happen. I think Georgia has a legitimate shot to win this game but right now I am leaning towards Auburn winning this game by about 10 points. Despite losing 5 games this year Georgia has only lost by a total of 35 points and their biggest loss came by only 12 points. Georgia will be in this game. Can they make the plays to shock the Top 25 and their rival?
Friday, November 5, 2010
Five Questions: SEC Edition
Will Auburn go undefeated and run the table into the National Championship Game?
Brandon: No. I feel that Alabama is still the team to beat in the SEC, I think the Cam Newton train comes crashing to a halt during the Iron Bowl, specifically if Auburn ever gets down by more than 10-14 Points.
Chris: Right now it's hard to bet against the Tigers. I am probably one of the last people not COMPLETELY sold on them, but I still recognize that they are an elite team. However, I will pick Alabama to knock them off in the Iron Bowl. I know that since South Carolina beat the Tide, there has been a game-plan established for how to beat them. It's not that teams haven't tried to replicate it, it's just that they haven't been able to. The Tigers will be tasked with shutting down the Tide's backfield duo, something that nobody except the Gamecocks did. I don't expect lightning to strike twice, therefore, I see the Tide coming out on top and ruining Auburn's shot at the NC game.
J Martin: I'd like to be wrong, but my gut feeling is yes. Cam Newton is playing like one of those quarterbacks I used to create to cheat in NCAA Football when I was kid. You know, Speed = 99, Acceleration = 99, Break Tackle = 99, Arm Strength = 99, etc. Just snap the ball to him and start running around. It was unstoppable. Well, life imitates art. I really don't see a scheme that can slow him down. Primarily because so much of what he does isn't based on scheme. He's at his most deadly whenever what's supposed to be happening on a given play breaks down and he just takes off. He gets into the open field and makes it a game of athlete vs. athlete, and the 6'6", 250 lb guy moving at 4.5 is going to win that more often than not. If you can stop him, you win. But the only team left on Auburn's schedule with the athletes to stop him is Alabama. And as the resident Bama expert, I have to admit I don't have a lot of faith in this bunch's ability to get the job done.
Kevin: It's taken me a long time to come around on Auburn and I still don't think I'm there yet. I just don't think they have the defense to get past Auburn. If you asked me last week I thought that if Georgia could get past Florida that they would have a good shot at Auburn. 2005 was the last time Auburn beat Georgia but I think Auburn beats the Dawgs 52 to 38 but then slips up against Bama.
Ross: No. Auburn will lose to Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but their consolation prize will be a trip to the Sugar Bowl, which isn't so bad.
Who will win the East?
Brandon: Florida. I think each team will take the other out, and they will come out on top of this whole mess.
Chris: Nobody. That's a distinct possibility at this point, right?
J Martin: Barring a fluke Gator loss to Vanderbilt, it's coming down to South Carolina @ Florida. If you asked me before this past Saturday, I would've said South Carolina without a second thought. Now, I'm leaning towards Florida. For whatever weaknesses they've shown this season, they reasserted their dominance over the SEC East by topping a Georgia team that smelled blood coming in to the game. And just as the Bulldogs couldn't take advantage of a down year for the Gators, I'm thinking Spurrier & the precocious Gamecocks will find themselves subjugated to Urban Meyer, yet again.
Kevin: It's Florida. Time To Die South Carolina! Carolina has a chance because they have Lattimore and Alshon but they also have Stephen Garcia and Steve Spurrier and I really have no confidence in that duo to beat Florida.
Ross: Easy answer: whoever wins the South Carolina-Florida game. But, seriously, even though Florida showed some offensive competence against Georgia, I still favor South Carolina slightly. They're better defensively than Georgia and they have some very potent offensive weapons of their own (Alshon Jeffery, Marcus Lattimore, Stephen Garcia). They've also already proven capable of winning a big game this year.
Can the winner of the East upset the West in the SEC Championship Game?
Brandon: This is going to sound strange, so bear with me…IF the East Champion plays Alabama I think that they can upset them, as it happened earlier this year, but if the East Champion plays Auburn, then I don’t think they would have enough.
Chris: If that team believes in voodoo and puts a million hexes on the team from the West. Oh, and those hexes have to work.
J Martin: This is the tricky part. If it's South Carolina, they can win it. They've already proven they can beat Bama, and they came within a boneheaded Spurrier QB change of possibly beating Auburn. Even if LSU were to sneak in to the title game, you'd have to like SC's odds. But if it's Florida representing the East, I say no way. We already know the Gators don't belong on the same field as Alabama right now. And it's difficult to imagine Florida's scatter-shot offense keeping up with Cam Newton for 4 quarters.
Kevin: No they can't. If it's Florida they simply don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Bama or Auburn and if it's South Carolina then Bama will be out for blood and Auburn already took their best shot and will adjust.
Ross: Sure. Whoever wins the East will be a talented squad in their own right and in a winner-takes-all setting like the SEC Championship Game, anything can happen. If South Carolina emerges from the East, they'd definitely have a realistic shot at winning the game, considering that they've already defeated Alabama and took Auburn to the limit. If anyone else emerges, I'd like their chances slightly less. That said... WILL they upset the SEC West champion? No, I don't think so -- Auburn and Alabama are simply playing to too high a level right now.
Will Georgia become bowl eligible this year?
Brandon: Yes. I think they beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech.
Chris: Um...They'll beat Idaho State, get Auburn in a trap game, so an upset IS possible here for an unsung Georgia group, and a Georgia Tech team who has been too inconsistent to predict. They could go 3-0, they could go 2-1, or they could go 1-2 and miss out. I say they barely make the cut by beating Georgia Tech.
J Martin: Yes, but it'll be a nail biter. It will take the Bulldogs all the way to the Georgia Tech game to pick up #6. While they will probably be able to put some points on Auburn, Georgia is just 1-4 away from home this season, and Aaron Murray seemed to catch a case of stage-fright early in the Florida game that cost the Bulldogs some opportunities. It's difficult for me to imagine them showing up to play (likely) a night game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, which has become one of the wildest environments in college football this season, and pulling out the win. #6 is going to have to come at home vs. the Yellow Jackets.
Kevin: I like the confidence you guys have in the Dawgs to win 2 of their final 3. The saddest thing about Georgia's season is that their best victory is against Kentucky. They way Georgia Tech is playing the Dawgs could beat them and our best victory will still be against Kentucky. Like Chris said Georgia could go 3-0 (almost impossible) but they could also go 1-2. I think we will get bowl eligible. If we don't then it could get ugly around these parts.
Ross: Yes. They'll beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech. They'll have a realistic shot at beating Auburn, given Auburn's defensive weaknesses and Georgia's offensive firepower, but ultimately I think Cam Newton will pull out a little more magic to get them by Georgia. Georgia Tech looks eminently beatable, though.
Will Tennessee go winless in the SEC this year?
Brandon: No way. Tennessee DOESN’T lose to Vandy under any circumstances, so I think they will spring an upset on them and salvage their SEC season with at least one win.
Chris: No, as much as I would like to see it happen, the Vols will not go winless in the SEC. The Vols SHOULD beat Mississippi, although the Rebs are playing somewhat inspired football right now (even in losing their last 3 games) against murderers row in the West (Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn with the first 2 of these 3 on the road) and putting up a fight. If the Vols somehow stumble on that opportunity, there is an absolute certainty (or as close as you can get) that the Vols will wear down the Commodores of Vandy with their superior athletes. Then they will finish out the season losing to Kentucky.
J Martin: No. Tennessee is bad, but Vanderbilt is worse. The Commodores were just lucky to catch Ole Miss early enough in the development of the Jeremiah Masoli experiment to steal a win. The Vols should at least be able to spare themselves the indignity of losing to their in-state "rival." I wouldn't even count them out in their other two remaining conference games. They should be competitive. They'll be even more competitive the longer they can keep that 7th loss of their record and the bowl dream alive.
Kevin: Everybody thinks Tennessee wins one. I'm going to say they don't. Houston Nutt and his buddy Jeremiah Masoli will beat the Vols, Kentucky will beat the Vols so that leaves Vandy. Robbie Caldwell will use his expertise from working on a turkey farm and will somehow turn that into motivation for his team to beat Derek Dooley and his bunch of turkeys. Seriously, how do you not get suspended when you are in a bar fight and a dude got kicked off of the SAME team earlier this year for getting into a bar fight.
Ross: No. They'll win one of them -- probably the game at Vanderbilt.
Brandon: No. I feel that Alabama is still the team to beat in the SEC, I think the Cam Newton train comes crashing to a halt during the Iron Bowl, specifically if Auburn ever gets down by more than 10-14 Points.
Chris: Right now it's hard to bet against the Tigers. I am probably one of the last people not COMPLETELY sold on them, but I still recognize that they are an elite team. However, I will pick Alabama to knock them off in the Iron Bowl. I know that since South Carolina beat the Tide, there has been a game-plan established for how to beat them. It's not that teams haven't tried to replicate it, it's just that they haven't been able to. The Tigers will be tasked with shutting down the Tide's backfield duo, something that nobody except the Gamecocks did. I don't expect lightning to strike twice, therefore, I see the Tide coming out on top and ruining Auburn's shot at the NC game.
J Martin: I'd like to be wrong, but my gut feeling is yes. Cam Newton is playing like one of those quarterbacks I used to create to cheat in NCAA Football when I was kid. You know, Speed = 99, Acceleration = 99, Break Tackle = 99, Arm Strength = 99, etc. Just snap the ball to him and start running around. It was unstoppable. Well, life imitates art. I really don't see a scheme that can slow him down. Primarily because so much of what he does isn't based on scheme. He's at his most deadly whenever what's supposed to be happening on a given play breaks down and he just takes off. He gets into the open field and makes it a game of athlete vs. athlete, and the 6'6", 250 lb guy moving at 4.5 is going to win that more often than not. If you can stop him, you win. But the only team left on Auburn's schedule with the athletes to stop him is Alabama. And as the resident Bama expert, I have to admit I don't have a lot of faith in this bunch's ability to get the job done.
Kevin: It's taken me a long time to come around on Auburn and I still don't think I'm there yet. I just don't think they have the defense to get past Auburn. If you asked me last week I thought that if Georgia could get past Florida that they would have a good shot at Auburn. 2005 was the last time Auburn beat Georgia but I think Auburn beats the Dawgs 52 to 38 but then slips up against Bama.
Ross: No. Auburn will lose to Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but their consolation prize will be a trip to the Sugar Bowl, which isn't so bad.
Who will win the East?
Brandon: Florida. I think each team will take the other out, and they will come out on top of this whole mess.
Chris: Nobody. That's a distinct possibility at this point, right?
J Martin: Barring a fluke Gator loss to Vanderbilt, it's coming down to South Carolina @ Florida. If you asked me before this past Saturday, I would've said South Carolina without a second thought. Now, I'm leaning towards Florida. For whatever weaknesses they've shown this season, they reasserted their dominance over the SEC East by topping a Georgia team that smelled blood coming in to the game. And just as the Bulldogs couldn't take advantage of a down year for the Gators, I'm thinking Spurrier & the precocious Gamecocks will find themselves subjugated to Urban Meyer, yet again.
Kevin: It's Florida. Time To Die South Carolina! Carolina has a chance because they have Lattimore and Alshon but they also have Stephen Garcia and Steve Spurrier and I really have no confidence in that duo to beat Florida.
Ross: Easy answer: whoever wins the South Carolina-Florida game. But, seriously, even though Florida showed some offensive competence against Georgia, I still favor South Carolina slightly. They're better defensively than Georgia and they have some very potent offensive weapons of their own (Alshon Jeffery, Marcus Lattimore, Stephen Garcia). They've also already proven capable of winning a big game this year.
Can the winner of the East upset the West in the SEC Championship Game?
Brandon: This is going to sound strange, so bear with me…IF the East Champion plays Alabama I think that they can upset them, as it happened earlier this year, but if the East Champion plays Auburn, then I don’t think they would have enough.
Chris: If that team believes in voodoo and puts a million hexes on the team from the West. Oh, and those hexes have to work.
J Martin: This is the tricky part. If it's South Carolina, they can win it. They've already proven they can beat Bama, and they came within a boneheaded Spurrier QB change of possibly beating Auburn. Even if LSU were to sneak in to the title game, you'd have to like SC's odds. But if it's Florida representing the East, I say no way. We already know the Gators don't belong on the same field as Alabama right now. And it's difficult to imagine Florida's scatter-shot offense keeping up with Cam Newton for 4 quarters.
Kevin: No they can't. If it's Florida they simply don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Bama or Auburn and if it's South Carolina then Bama will be out for blood and Auburn already took their best shot and will adjust.
Ross: Sure. Whoever wins the East will be a talented squad in their own right and in a winner-takes-all setting like the SEC Championship Game, anything can happen. If South Carolina emerges from the East, they'd definitely have a realistic shot at winning the game, considering that they've already defeated Alabama and took Auburn to the limit. If anyone else emerges, I'd like their chances slightly less. That said... WILL they upset the SEC West champion? No, I don't think so -- Auburn and Alabama are simply playing to too high a level right now.
Will Georgia become bowl eligible this year?
Brandon: Yes. I think they beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech.
Chris: Um...They'll beat Idaho State, get Auburn in a trap game, so an upset IS possible here for an unsung Georgia group, and a Georgia Tech team who has been too inconsistent to predict. They could go 3-0, they could go 2-1, or they could go 1-2 and miss out. I say they barely make the cut by beating Georgia Tech.
J Martin: Yes, but it'll be a nail biter. It will take the Bulldogs all the way to the Georgia Tech game to pick up #6. While they will probably be able to put some points on Auburn, Georgia is just 1-4 away from home this season, and Aaron Murray seemed to catch a case of stage-fright early in the Florida game that cost the Bulldogs some opportunities. It's difficult for me to imagine them showing up to play (likely) a night game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, which has become one of the wildest environments in college football this season, and pulling out the win. #6 is going to have to come at home vs. the Yellow Jackets.
Kevin: I like the confidence you guys have in the Dawgs to win 2 of their final 3. The saddest thing about Georgia's season is that their best victory is against Kentucky. They way Georgia Tech is playing the Dawgs could beat them and our best victory will still be against Kentucky. Like Chris said Georgia could go 3-0 (almost impossible) but they could also go 1-2. I think we will get bowl eligible. If we don't then it could get ugly around these parts.
Ross: Yes. They'll beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech. They'll have a realistic shot at beating Auburn, given Auburn's defensive weaknesses and Georgia's offensive firepower, but ultimately I think Cam Newton will pull out a little more magic to get them by Georgia. Georgia Tech looks eminently beatable, though.
Will Tennessee go winless in the SEC this year?
Brandon: No way. Tennessee DOESN’T lose to Vandy under any circumstances, so I think they will spring an upset on them and salvage their SEC season with at least one win.
Chris: No, as much as I would like to see it happen, the Vols will not go winless in the SEC. The Vols SHOULD beat Mississippi, although the Rebs are playing somewhat inspired football right now (even in losing their last 3 games) against murderers row in the West (Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn with the first 2 of these 3 on the road) and putting up a fight. If the Vols somehow stumble on that opportunity, there is an absolute certainty (or as close as you can get) that the Vols will wear down the Commodores of Vandy with their superior athletes. Then they will finish out the season losing to Kentucky.
J Martin: No. Tennessee is bad, but Vanderbilt is worse. The Commodores were just lucky to catch Ole Miss early enough in the development of the Jeremiah Masoli experiment to steal a win. The Vols should at least be able to spare themselves the indignity of losing to their in-state "rival." I wouldn't even count them out in their other two remaining conference games. They should be competitive. They'll be even more competitive the longer they can keep that 7th loss of their record and the bowl dream alive.
Kevin: Everybody thinks Tennessee wins one. I'm going to say they don't. Houston Nutt and his buddy Jeremiah Masoli will beat the Vols, Kentucky will beat the Vols so that leaves Vandy. Robbie Caldwell will use his expertise from working on a turkey farm and will somehow turn that into motivation for his team to beat Derek Dooley and his bunch of turkeys. Seriously, how do you not get suspended when you are in a bar fight and a dude got kicked off of the SAME team earlier this year for getting into a bar fight.
Ross: No. They'll win one of them -- probably the game at Vanderbilt.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 14-16
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
TWO WEEKS AGO: 4-2
OVERALL 24-12
We took a break last week, but we're back and ready to go this week.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23#6 LSU (7-0, 4-0) AT #4 AUBURN (7-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Another week, another Milacle? Neutral observers (and fans of chaos and random insanity) can only hope so (although Auburn fans probably disagree, as do LSU fans with weak hearts). LSU's improbable undefeated run continues as they face their stiffest test yet -- a road game against top-5 Auburn, better known as The Cam Newton Show, starring Cam Newton, with special guest star Cam Newton. All of which is to say: Cam Newton is really damn good, as evidenced by the fact that through seven game, he's thrown for 1278 yards and 13/5 TD/INT on 80/122 passing and galloped for 860 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. He's a superfreak. And while he hasn't faced any elite defenses yet, he did a pretty good job of carving up (16/21, 158 yards, 2/0 TD/INT, 176 yards rushing, 3 TD) a respectable South Carolina outfit. You have to figure that he's gonna get his against LSU; the real question is what LSU can do to answer him. The Auburn pass defense isn't so hot (see: last week's Arkansas game), but LSU isn't terribly well-equipped to exploit that (outside of stud WR Terrence Tolliver). The unstoppable force that is Cam Newton meets the immovable object that is the Year of the Milacle; call me crazy, but I'm siding with the Caminator in this one.
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, LSU 28
#13 WISCONSIN (6-1, 2-1) AT #15 IOWA (5-1, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)Thanks to the impending Big Ten divisional alignments, this series, which has been one of the most competitive in major college football (Iowa leads 42-41-2), will be going by the wayside to an extent. They'll still play, but not every year and possibly no more than four times in a ten year span. As an Iowa fan, that makes me a little sad, since the Wisconsin games have usually been close, exciting games, although getting an annual game with Nebraska is a pretty solid trade-off, too. Not that this particular game needed any of that "break in the rivalry" juice to make it any bigger than it is, because it's pretty damn big to begin with. Wisconsin restored their Big Ten contender credentials with an impressive 31-18 ass-kicking of then-#1 Ohio State last week, while Iowa went on the road to knock off an explosive Michigan team. Iowa remains one of only three Big Ten teams that's still undefeated (along with Purdue and Michigan State), and they control their own destiny for the league title (assuming someone knocks off Purdue, which seems like a safe bet). Their next three home games are against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State; it's not really hyperbole to argue that the road to the Big Ten crown goes through Iowa City over this next month.
Iowa's played well since their disappointing loss to Arizona last month, but Wisconsin will pose a far different challenge than an inexperienced (and injury-riddled) Penn State team or an electric (but not very physically imposing) Michigan team; Wisconsin is all brawn and beef and very little subtlety. Fortunately, that's precisely the sort of team Iowa has long had success against. Throw in the letdown factor that Wisconsin will inevitably have to battle (see: South Carolina a week ago) and you can see why this will be a very difficult game for them. The key will likely come down to how well they can run the ball on Iowa's defense; if their massive OL can dominate Iowa's talented DL and open up holes for John Clay and James White, it could be a long day for Iowa. On the other hand, if Iowa can keep the Wisco running game mostly in check and force Scott Tolzien to beat them through the air, they should be in very good shape. On offense, Iowa could have trouble establishing a run game with Adam Robinson, but if the OL can provide Ricky Stanzi some decent pass protection (something they've been very good at all year, aside from the end of the Arizona game), he should be able to hit some big plays to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt through the air. I think the Iowa DL makes some big plays and Stanzi has another good day.
THE PICK: IOWA 24, WISCONSIN 14
#16 NEBRASKA (5-1, 1-1) AT #14 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)And now we come to perhaps the biggest "Prove Yourselves" game of the day. Nebraska has to prove that their 5-0 start wasn't a mirage built against dramatically inferior competition and that they can rebound from a gutting loss to Texas in a game that they'd had circled for months. Oklahoma State has to prove that their own 6-0 start isn't just the product of a really favorable schedule and that they can actually beat a good team. Oklahoma State was widely picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South and for fairly understandable reasons: they lost a ton of talent, including multi-year starter Zac Robinson at QB and all-everything WR Dez Bryant. But they returned RB Kendall Hunter (who battled multiple injuries last year on his way to a somewhat mediocre campaign) and they've slotted in QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon to replace Robinson and Bryant and barely skipped a beat. Blackmon, in particular, has been a revelation -- he's leading the NCAA in receiving yards (955) and touchdowns (12) and, yes, he's put up those numbers in just six games. On the other hand, Nebraska will be by far the nastiest defense Okie State has faced this year and they've absolutely stifled passing games all season. The question for Nebraska is how well their own offense can move the ball and score points; Texas completely shut them down and extinguished Taylor Martinez's Heisman buzz. But the Okie State defense is not quite the same thing as a Texas defense coached by Will Muschamp that has two weeks to prepare for the Martinez buzzsaw. When in doubt, side with the elite defense.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 20
NORTH CAROLINA (4-2, 2-1) AT MIAMI (4-2, 2-1) (ESPN2, 6:30pm EST)Before the season, there was some speculation that the ACC Coastal was going to emerge as the toughest division in college football. It had four ranked teams (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami), loads of talent, and high expectations. Midway through the season, we now know that was a lie; the SEC West is unquestionably the top division. But while the ACC Coastal has endured some pratfalls along the way (UNC's ongoing scandals, Virgina Tech's loss to James Madison, Georgia Tech's loss to Kansas, Miami's homefield disemboweling at the hands of Florida State), they've also more or less righted the ship and emerged as solid teams; they're all sitting at 4-2 or better and getting ready for the brutal round robin of games they're going to face against one another over the next month. Despite dealing with massive suspension-induced losses from the ongoing scandals that have engulfed their program, North Carolina has been looking pretty solid after their 0-2 start. Miami has looked unable to compete against foes with talent on par with their own; they lost to Ohio State in a game that was only close because of Ohio State's miserable special teams and got blown off their own field by Florida State. Their four wins have come against Florida A&M, a bad Pitt team, a bad Duke team, and a so-so Clemson team. Suffice to say, I don't really trust them.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA 24, MIAMI 17
#1 OKLAHOMA (6-0, 2-0) AT #11 MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)Oklahoma moved to the top of the initial BCS standings on the back of a 6-0 schedule against a slate of solid opponents (outside of their loss to the Sooners, Oklahoma's opponents are 23-10). The results haven't always been pretty (see: single-digit wins over Utah State, Cincinnati, and Air Force), but wins are the thing and Oklahoma's got 'em so far. Meanwhile, Missouri has quietly gone about its business and also sits at 6-0 and hosting one of the biggest games in their program's history (even with their recent success). Missouri's resume lacks any marquee wins (their best win is... San Diego State? Texas A&M? Illinois?), but they've beaten a collection of teams that has emerged as if not quite "good," at least "perfectly decent." That said, Oklahoma is a whole different beast than any of the teams they've played, especially since they seem to be clicking now. Earlier in the season, they might have screwed around with a not-totally-awful Iowa State team; instead, they obliterated them 52-0, exactly the way an elite team should. That's bad news for Missouri. Strangely, Missouri's success this season has been built on the back of a surprisingly stout defense, rather than the shoot 'em up affairs that constituted their success a few years ago. Can they use that and some homefield mojo to slow down Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and the rest of the Sooner offense? That's tough. The history of the last decade is that Bob Stoops wins big games in the league (it's just those pesky BCS bowl games that give him issues, plus Texas the last few years) and Gary Pinkel rarely does. It's hard to bet against that.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 34, MISSOURI 24
AIR FORCE (5-2, 3-1) AT #5 TCU (7-0, 3-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS College Sports)It's been a while since we've checked in with the non-BCS leagues and this is unquestionably the game of the day from the mid-major ranks. It would have been a match-up of top 25 teams if Air Force hadn't stubbed their toe last week at San Diego State, but as it is, it's still the first quasi-test TCU has faced since the season opener against Oregon State (or Baylor five weeks ago, if you think the Bears are legit). Since their splashy opening week win over Oregon State, TCU has mostly been minding their own business and beating the piss out of teams, especially since they opened up conference play a month ago -- they're 3-0 in Mountain West play and they've outscored their foes by an aggregate score of 103-3 (BYU got a pity FG on them last week). On the other hand, Colorado State, BYU, and Wyoming just aren't any good this year, either. Air Force isn't a great team, but they've emerged as a solid team this year; until last week's slip-up against SDSU, they'd beaten everyone in their path except Oklahoma (who they lost to just 27-24). They also pose a unique challenge for the TCU defense since they run the triple-option. Still, TCU seems too good on both sides of the ball to trip up at hoem against Air Force; this one might be close for a half or so, but TCU should pull away.
THE PICK: TCU 31, AIR FORCE 13
TWO WEEKS AGO: 4-2
OVERALL 24-12
We took a break last week, but we're back and ready to go this week.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23#6 LSU (7-0, 4-0) AT #4 AUBURN (7-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Another week, another Milacle? Neutral observers (and fans of chaos and random insanity) can only hope so (although Auburn fans probably disagree, as do LSU fans with weak hearts). LSU's improbable undefeated run continues as they face their stiffest test yet -- a road game against top-5 Auburn, better known as The Cam Newton Show, starring Cam Newton, with special guest star Cam Newton. All of which is to say: Cam Newton is really damn good, as evidenced by the fact that through seven game, he's thrown for 1278 yards and 13/5 TD/INT on 80/122 passing and galloped for 860 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. He's a superfreak. And while he hasn't faced any elite defenses yet, he did a pretty good job of carving up (16/21, 158 yards, 2/0 TD/INT, 176 yards rushing, 3 TD) a respectable South Carolina outfit. You have to figure that he's gonna get his against LSU; the real question is what LSU can do to answer him. The Auburn pass defense isn't so hot (see: last week's Arkansas game), but LSU isn't terribly well-equipped to exploit that (outside of stud WR Terrence Tolliver). The unstoppable force that is Cam Newton meets the immovable object that is the Year of the Milacle; call me crazy, but I'm siding with the Caminator in this one.
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, LSU 28
#13 WISCONSIN (6-1, 2-1) AT #15 IOWA (5-1, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)Thanks to the impending Big Ten divisional alignments, this series, which has been one of the most competitive in major college football (Iowa leads 42-41-2), will be going by the wayside to an extent. They'll still play, but not every year and possibly no more than four times in a ten year span. As an Iowa fan, that makes me a little sad, since the Wisconsin games have usually been close, exciting games, although getting an annual game with Nebraska is a pretty solid trade-off, too. Not that this particular game needed any of that "break in the rivalry" juice to make it any bigger than it is, because it's pretty damn big to begin with. Wisconsin restored their Big Ten contender credentials with an impressive 31-18 ass-kicking of then-#1 Ohio State last week, while Iowa went on the road to knock off an explosive Michigan team. Iowa remains one of only three Big Ten teams that's still undefeated (along with Purdue and Michigan State), and they control their own destiny for the league title (assuming someone knocks off Purdue, which seems like a safe bet). Their next three home games are against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State; it's not really hyperbole to argue that the road to the Big Ten crown goes through Iowa City over this next month.
Iowa's played well since their disappointing loss to Arizona last month, but Wisconsin will pose a far different challenge than an inexperienced (and injury-riddled) Penn State team or an electric (but not very physically imposing) Michigan team; Wisconsin is all brawn and beef and very little subtlety. Fortunately, that's precisely the sort of team Iowa has long had success against. Throw in the letdown factor that Wisconsin will inevitably have to battle (see: South Carolina a week ago) and you can see why this will be a very difficult game for them. The key will likely come down to how well they can run the ball on Iowa's defense; if their massive OL can dominate Iowa's talented DL and open up holes for John Clay and James White, it could be a long day for Iowa. On the other hand, if Iowa can keep the Wisco running game mostly in check and force Scott Tolzien to beat them through the air, they should be in very good shape. On offense, Iowa could have trouble establishing a run game with Adam Robinson, but if the OL can provide Ricky Stanzi some decent pass protection (something they've been very good at all year, aside from the end of the Arizona game), he should be able to hit some big plays to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt through the air. I think the Iowa DL makes some big plays and Stanzi has another good day.
THE PICK: IOWA 24, WISCONSIN 14
#16 NEBRASKA (5-1, 1-1) AT #14 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)And now we come to perhaps the biggest "Prove Yourselves" game of the day. Nebraska has to prove that their 5-0 start wasn't a mirage built against dramatically inferior competition and that they can rebound from a gutting loss to Texas in a game that they'd had circled for months. Oklahoma State has to prove that their own 6-0 start isn't just the product of a really favorable schedule and that they can actually beat a good team. Oklahoma State was widely picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South and for fairly understandable reasons: they lost a ton of talent, including multi-year starter Zac Robinson at QB and all-everything WR Dez Bryant. But they returned RB Kendall Hunter (who battled multiple injuries last year on his way to a somewhat mediocre campaign) and they've slotted in QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon to replace Robinson and Bryant and barely skipped a beat. Blackmon, in particular, has been a revelation -- he's leading the NCAA in receiving yards (955) and touchdowns (12) and, yes, he's put up those numbers in just six games. On the other hand, Nebraska will be by far the nastiest defense Okie State has faced this year and they've absolutely stifled passing games all season. The question for Nebraska is how well their own offense can move the ball and score points; Texas completely shut them down and extinguished Taylor Martinez's Heisman buzz. But the Okie State defense is not quite the same thing as a Texas defense coached by Will Muschamp that has two weeks to prepare for the Martinez buzzsaw. When in doubt, side with the elite defense.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 20
NORTH CAROLINA (4-2, 2-1) AT MIAMI (4-2, 2-1) (ESPN2, 6:30pm EST)Before the season, there was some speculation that the ACC Coastal was going to emerge as the toughest division in college football. It had four ranked teams (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami), loads of talent, and high expectations. Midway through the season, we now know that was a lie; the SEC West is unquestionably the top division. But while the ACC Coastal has endured some pratfalls along the way (UNC's ongoing scandals, Virgina Tech's loss to James Madison, Georgia Tech's loss to Kansas, Miami's homefield disemboweling at the hands of Florida State), they've also more or less righted the ship and emerged as solid teams; they're all sitting at 4-2 or better and getting ready for the brutal round robin of games they're going to face against one another over the next month. Despite dealing with massive suspension-induced losses from the ongoing scandals that have engulfed their program, North Carolina has been looking pretty solid after their 0-2 start. Miami has looked unable to compete against foes with talent on par with their own; they lost to Ohio State in a game that was only close because of Ohio State's miserable special teams and got blown off their own field by Florida State. Their four wins have come against Florida A&M, a bad Pitt team, a bad Duke team, and a so-so Clemson team. Suffice to say, I don't really trust them.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA 24, MIAMI 17
#1 OKLAHOMA (6-0, 2-0) AT #11 MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)Oklahoma moved to the top of the initial BCS standings on the back of a 6-0 schedule against a slate of solid opponents (outside of their loss to the Sooners, Oklahoma's opponents are 23-10). The results haven't always been pretty (see: single-digit wins over Utah State, Cincinnati, and Air Force), but wins are the thing and Oklahoma's got 'em so far. Meanwhile, Missouri has quietly gone about its business and also sits at 6-0 and hosting one of the biggest games in their program's history (even with their recent success). Missouri's resume lacks any marquee wins (their best win is... San Diego State? Texas A&M? Illinois?), but they've beaten a collection of teams that has emerged as if not quite "good," at least "perfectly decent." That said, Oklahoma is a whole different beast than any of the teams they've played, especially since they seem to be clicking now. Earlier in the season, they might have screwed around with a not-totally-awful Iowa State team; instead, they obliterated them 52-0, exactly the way an elite team should. That's bad news for Missouri. Strangely, Missouri's success this season has been built on the back of a surprisingly stout defense, rather than the shoot 'em up affairs that constituted their success a few years ago. Can they use that and some homefield mojo to slow down Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and the rest of the Sooner offense? That's tough. The history of the last decade is that Bob Stoops wins big games in the league (it's just those pesky BCS bowl games that give him issues, plus Texas the last few years) and Gary Pinkel rarely does. It's hard to bet against that.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 34, MISSOURI 24
AIR FORCE (5-2, 3-1) AT #5 TCU (7-0, 3-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS College Sports)It's been a while since we've checked in with the non-BCS leagues and this is unquestionably the game of the day from the mid-major ranks. It would have been a match-up of top 25 teams if Air Force hadn't stubbed their toe last week at San Diego State, but as it is, it's still the first quasi-test TCU has faced since the season opener against Oregon State (or Baylor five weeks ago, if you think the Bears are legit). Since their splashy opening week win over Oregon State, TCU has mostly been minding their own business and beating the piss out of teams, especially since they opened up conference play a month ago -- they're 3-0 in Mountain West play and they've outscored their foes by an aggregate score of 103-3 (BYU got a pity FG on them last week). On the other hand, Colorado State, BYU, and Wyoming just aren't any good this year, either. Air Force isn't a great team, but they've emerged as a solid team this year; until last week's slip-up against SDSU, they'd beaten everyone in their path except Oklahoma (who they lost to just 27-24). They also pose a unique challenge for the TCU defense since they run the triple-option. Still, TCU seems too good on both sides of the ball to trip up at hoem against Air Force; this one might be close for a half or so, but TCU should pull away.
THE PICK: TCU 31, AIR FORCE 13
Thursday, September 23, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 23-25
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 5-1
OVERALL: 12-6
#19 Miami (1-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Both teams have been off since 9/11/10, so they should be well-rested and well-prepared for this game, which pits two former Big East rivals against one another, both of whom could really use an impressive win to regain some of their season's lost momentum. Miami's had two weeks to stew over a loss to Ohio State in which any chance they might have had at springing the upset was killed by Jacory Harris' four interceptions, while Pittsburgh hasn’t played an opponent with a pulse since their opening night stumble at Utah. (They beat New Hampshire two weeks ago.) In a battle of two coaches who recruit well but frequently struggle on game day, I’d usually say go with the guy with the better talent on hand (which seems like Miami, by a hair). On the other hand, it’s not often wise to bet against the home underdog on Thursday night, so I’ll grudgingly side with the Wannstache in this one.
THE PICK: PITT 27, MIAMI 21
#1 Alabama (3-0) @ #10 Arkansas (3-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
The season’s second all-top ten clash (after the Boise State-Virginia Tech thriller in week one) was one of the more anticipated games of the SEC slate before the season began and even before Arkansas seemed likely to be ranked in the top ten, owing to Arkansas’ status as the sexy dark horse pick in the SEC. After nearly toppling Florida last year and having a solid season, Arkansas was expected to be a major threat this year with nearly all of their offensive firepower back, an improved defense, and, in this game a match-up advantage (Ryan Mallett and Arkansas’ high-powered passing offense versus Alabama’s inexperienced secondary), and homefield. On the other hand, Alabama has cruised through the opening three weeks with nary a speedbump, even without the services of two of their best players, RB Mark Ingram and DT/DT Marcell Dareus for the opening two games. They both returned last week and Alabama obliterated Duke, 62-13. They are scary good – again. Still, even the best teams are going to have tough games and this looks like one of Alabama’s toughest games of the year. It’s also the beginning of a brutal three-game stretch that sees road trips to Arkansas and South Carolina bookended around a home game against Florida. Then again, with Saban in charge, their eyes should be firmly on the obstacle in front of them, which is Arkansas and Mallett. And it’s tough to pick against the defending champs when they’re playing so lights-out. So as much as I want to go for the upset…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, ARKANSAS 28
#12 South Carolina (3-0) @ #17 Auburn (3-0) (7:45pm EST, ESPN)
There are few things stranger than watching architect of the Fun-n-Gun offense that revolutionized the passing game in the SEC become a disciple of the cro-mag football that’s long characterized the Big Ten, but then again running backs like Marcus Lattimore don’t come along every day, so even a passing guru like Steve Spurrier knows when to ride that horse as long as possible. Granted, it’s not like Spurrier’s been allergic to the running game in the past (even at Florida he churned out quality tailbacks like some guy by the name of Emmitt Smith) and if Stephen Garcia was your main option at quarterback, it’s easy to see why pounding away on the ground seems a little more palatable… but still: kinda weird. Meanwhile, Gene Chizik’s Auburn squad has its own freshman stud running back in Michael Dyer, although he’s only the third most prolific runner on this team, behind QB Cameron Newton and fellow RB Ontero McCalebb. Newton continues to be a work in progress in the passing game, but he’s a definite threat on the ground. With two powerful running games and two nasty, hard-hitting defenses (the Auburn-Clemson game a week ago seemed to feature a game-stopping injury every third play), this one should be the kind of game Bo and Woody would have enjoyed, even if it is dressed up in SEC colors. Auburn has the homefield edge, but they’ve looked like the shakier side so far and it’s hard to shake the feeling that this could finally be the year that South Carolina breaks through.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 17, AUBURN 13
#24 Oregon State (1-1) @ #3 Boise State (3-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
For the first time ever, College GameDay’s headed to Boise to party on the Smurf Turf as Boise State continues their inexorable march to, at the very least, a third BCS bowl appearance in the last five years – and perhaps even a BCS Championship Game appearance if a few things can break their way. Oregon State represents the last chance for one of the power conferences to derail the Broncos before they can crash the big boy party; all they have to do is accomplish the nigh-impossible: beat Boise on that aforementioned Smurf Turf. You could count the number of games Boise has lost on their home field in recent years on one hand, even if that one hand was a stump. They basically never, ever lose there. Oregon State gave TCU a run in the opener, but they struggled to put away a middling Louisville team traveling thousands of miles to Corvalis, OR last week; maybe they were just looking ahead to their big showdown with Boise, but it doesn’t breed much confidence. Meanwhile, Boise rebounded from seeing their national spotlight win over Virginia Tech lose almost all of its luster after the Hokies got knocked off by James Madison by turning around and curbstomping Wyoming last week. They seem pretty focused on doing what they need to do, which is just beating everyone in front of them. If this game was anywhere but Boise, I would give Oregon State a slight chance at the upset. But in Boise? Not happening.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE 37, OREGON STATE 24
#22 West Virginia (3-0) @ #15 LSU (3-0) (9:00pm EST, ESPN2)
Can ESPN just air three hours of these two fanbases tailgating and hanging out before the game? That’s almost guaranteed to be more interesting than whatever these two winning-but-flawed football teams do on the field, given how passionate (read: totally goddamn insane) their fans are. I would not want to be a cop in Baton Rouge on Saturday night. Anyway, the game. LSU enters the game as the sole team in the FBS who’s managed to record three wins over fellow BCS teams; sure those three teams were SEC bottomfeeders Vanderbilt and Mississippi State and a hugely depleted North Carolina team, but hey: wins over teams that aren’t just there to collect a fat paycheck are nothing to sniff about at this stage of the season. After inexplicably giving up a career day to North Carolina’s TJ Yates, the LSU defense has buckled down considerably, holding Vandy and MSU to a combined 10 points and roughly 400 yards of total offense. Which is good because the LSU offense has looked a mite sluggish; they needed big second halves to break open both games. West Virginia’s 3-0 mark contains two wins over FBS competition, but they haven’t looked hugely impressive in doing so; they needed a quasi-miraculous comeback to get by in-state rivals Marshall two weeks ago and they let Maryland hang around for a good chunk of the game a week ago. Geno Smith is emerging as a solid quarterback (71/101, 800 yards, 7/1 TD/INT), but he hasn’t faced a defense nearly as brutal as LSU’s, nor a cornerback as impenetrable as Patrick Peterson, and while Noel Devine is slippery, busting off runs against CUSA and ACC defenses is one thing; doing it against one of the SEC’s best is another. And picking against LSU in Death Valley at night? You must be crazy.
THE PICK: LSU 27, WEST VIRGINIA 14
Cal (2-1) @ #14 Arizona (3-0) (10:00pm EST, FSN)
Arizona is the team of the moment, and justifiably so after picking up one of the young season's signature wins in knocking off a top-ten team in Iowa. But the college football season is a marathon, not a sprint; it's one thing to get amped up for one big night game on national TV, against an opponent that your coach has history with and that you wanted to beat to avenge a loss from last fall -- it's another thing entirely to be able to maintain that level of focus and passion throughout eight, nine, or ten more games. Arizona was well-coached and well-prepared for their game with Iowa and executed their gameplan very well... but 18-22 year olds can't (and won't) execute at that level, week in and week out. So the trick becomes winning when you aren't at your best. And a week after such a big win, after spending all week reading stories about how great they are and how they've shed the "mediocre" or "underachiever" labels that have dogged them in the past, it would be an absolute stunner if there wasn't a little bit of a hangover there. On the flipside, Cal's coming off one of the most humiliating losses of Jeff Tedford's tenure, a game in which their defense got utterly destroyed by Nevada's Colin Kaepernick. But they're not as bad as they looked in that game and they have the talent to give Arizona some troubles if their heads aren't totally in the game. On the other hand, the home team has won five straight in this series...
THE PICK: ARIZONA 34, CAL 30
LAST WEEK: 5-1
OVERALL: 12-6
#19 Miami (1-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Both teams have been off since 9/11/10, so they should be well-rested and well-prepared for this game, which pits two former Big East rivals against one another, both of whom could really use an impressive win to regain some of their season's lost momentum. Miami's had two weeks to stew over a loss to Ohio State in which any chance they might have had at springing the upset was killed by Jacory Harris' four interceptions, while Pittsburgh hasn’t played an opponent with a pulse since their opening night stumble at Utah. (They beat New Hampshire two weeks ago.) In a battle of two coaches who recruit well but frequently struggle on game day, I’d usually say go with the guy with the better talent on hand (which seems like Miami, by a hair). On the other hand, it’s not often wise to bet against the home underdog on Thursday night, so I’ll grudgingly side with the Wannstache in this one.
THE PICK: PITT 27, MIAMI 21
#1 Alabama (3-0) @ #10 Arkansas (3-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
The season’s second all-top ten clash (after the Boise State-Virginia Tech thriller in week one) was one of the more anticipated games of the SEC slate before the season began and even before Arkansas seemed likely to be ranked in the top ten, owing to Arkansas’ status as the sexy dark horse pick in the SEC. After nearly toppling Florida last year and having a solid season, Arkansas was expected to be a major threat this year with nearly all of their offensive firepower back, an improved defense, and, in this game a match-up advantage (Ryan Mallett and Arkansas’ high-powered passing offense versus Alabama’s inexperienced secondary), and homefield. On the other hand, Alabama has cruised through the opening three weeks with nary a speedbump, even without the services of two of their best players, RB Mark Ingram and DT/DT Marcell Dareus for the opening two games. They both returned last week and Alabama obliterated Duke, 62-13. They are scary good – again. Still, even the best teams are going to have tough games and this looks like one of Alabama’s toughest games of the year. It’s also the beginning of a brutal three-game stretch that sees road trips to Arkansas and South Carolina bookended around a home game against Florida. Then again, with Saban in charge, their eyes should be firmly on the obstacle in front of them, which is Arkansas and Mallett. And it’s tough to pick against the defending champs when they’re playing so lights-out. So as much as I want to go for the upset…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, ARKANSAS 28
#12 South Carolina (3-0) @ #17 Auburn (3-0) (7:45pm EST, ESPN)
There are few things stranger than watching architect of the Fun-n-Gun offense that revolutionized the passing game in the SEC become a disciple of the cro-mag football that’s long characterized the Big Ten, but then again running backs like Marcus Lattimore don’t come along every day, so even a passing guru like Steve Spurrier knows when to ride that horse as long as possible. Granted, it’s not like Spurrier’s been allergic to the running game in the past (even at Florida he churned out quality tailbacks like some guy by the name of Emmitt Smith) and if Stephen Garcia was your main option at quarterback, it’s easy to see why pounding away on the ground seems a little more palatable… but still: kinda weird. Meanwhile, Gene Chizik’s Auburn squad has its own freshman stud running back in Michael Dyer, although he’s only the third most prolific runner on this team, behind QB Cameron Newton and fellow RB Ontero McCalebb. Newton continues to be a work in progress in the passing game, but he’s a definite threat on the ground. With two powerful running games and two nasty, hard-hitting defenses (the Auburn-Clemson game a week ago seemed to feature a game-stopping injury every third play), this one should be the kind of game Bo and Woody would have enjoyed, even if it is dressed up in SEC colors. Auburn has the homefield edge, but they’ve looked like the shakier side so far and it’s hard to shake the feeling that this could finally be the year that South Carolina breaks through.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 17, AUBURN 13
#24 Oregon State (1-1) @ #3 Boise State (3-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
For the first time ever, College GameDay’s headed to Boise to party on the Smurf Turf as Boise State continues their inexorable march to, at the very least, a third BCS bowl appearance in the last five years – and perhaps even a BCS Championship Game appearance if a few things can break their way. Oregon State represents the last chance for one of the power conferences to derail the Broncos before they can crash the big boy party; all they have to do is accomplish the nigh-impossible: beat Boise on that aforementioned Smurf Turf. You could count the number of games Boise has lost on their home field in recent years on one hand, even if that one hand was a stump. They basically never, ever lose there. Oregon State gave TCU a run in the opener, but they struggled to put away a middling Louisville team traveling thousands of miles to Corvalis, OR last week; maybe they were just looking ahead to their big showdown with Boise, but it doesn’t breed much confidence. Meanwhile, Boise rebounded from seeing their national spotlight win over Virginia Tech lose almost all of its luster after the Hokies got knocked off by James Madison by turning around and curbstomping Wyoming last week. They seem pretty focused on doing what they need to do, which is just beating everyone in front of them. If this game was anywhere but Boise, I would give Oregon State a slight chance at the upset. But in Boise? Not happening.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE 37, OREGON STATE 24
#22 West Virginia (3-0) @ #15 LSU (3-0) (9:00pm EST, ESPN2)
Can ESPN just air three hours of these two fanbases tailgating and hanging out before the game? That’s almost guaranteed to be more interesting than whatever these two winning-but-flawed football teams do on the field, given how passionate (read: totally goddamn insane) their fans are. I would not want to be a cop in Baton Rouge on Saturday night. Anyway, the game. LSU enters the game as the sole team in the FBS who’s managed to record three wins over fellow BCS teams; sure those three teams were SEC bottomfeeders Vanderbilt and Mississippi State and a hugely depleted North Carolina team, but hey: wins over teams that aren’t just there to collect a fat paycheck are nothing to sniff about at this stage of the season. After inexplicably giving up a career day to North Carolina’s TJ Yates, the LSU defense has buckled down considerably, holding Vandy and MSU to a combined 10 points and roughly 400 yards of total offense. Which is good because the LSU offense has looked a mite sluggish; they needed big second halves to break open both games. West Virginia’s 3-0 mark contains two wins over FBS competition, but they haven’t looked hugely impressive in doing so; they needed a quasi-miraculous comeback to get by in-state rivals Marshall two weeks ago and they let Maryland hang around for a good chunk of the game a week ago. Geno Smith is emerging as a solid quarterback (71/101, 800 yards, 7/1 TD/INT), but he hasn’t faced a defense nearly as brutal as LSU’s, nor a cornerback as impenetrable as Patrick Peterson, and while Noel Devine is slippery, busting off runs against CUSA and ACC defenses is one thing; doing it against one of the SEC’s best is another. And picking against LSU in Death Valley at night? You must be crazy.
THE PICK: LSU 27, WEST VIRGINIA 14
Cal (2-1) @ #14 Arizona (3-0) (10:00pm EST, FSN)
Arizona is the team of the moment, and justifiably so after picking up one of the young season's signature wins in knocking off a top-ten team in Iowa. But the college football season is a marathon, not a sprint; it's one thing to get amped up for one big night game on national TV, against an opponent that your coach has history with and that you wanted to beat to avenge a loss from last fall -- it's another thing entirely to be able to maintain that level of focus and passion throughout eight, nine, or ten more games. Arizona was well-coached and well-prepared for their game with Iowa and executed their gameplan very well... but 18-22 year olds can't (and won't) execute at that level, week in and week out. So the trick becomes winning when you aren't at your best. And a week after such a big win, after spending all week reading stories about how great they are and how they've shed the "mediocre" or "underachiever" labels that have dogged them in the past, it would be an absolute stunner if there wasn't a little bit of a hangover there. On the flipside, Cal's coming off one of the most humiliating losses of Jeff Tedford's tenure, a game in which their defense got utterly destroyed by Nevada's Colin Kaepernick. But they're not as bad as they looked in that game and they have the talent to give Arizona some troubles if their heads aren't totally in the game. On the other hand, the home team has won five straight in this series...
THE PICK: ARIZONA 34, CAL 30
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 16-18
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 7-5
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 7-5
SATURDAY, SEPT. 18
#12 Arkansas @ Georgia (12pm EST, ESPN)
Arkansas was the trendy pick in the SEC this year, following in the proud footsteps of 2009 Ole Miss and 2008 Georgia, although by now the pollsters have learned their lesson well enough not to place Arkansas immediately in the top ten. They certainly didn't look like a top ten team in struggling with UL-Monroe for three quarters last week. Like that '09 Ole Miss squad, they feature a much-hyped veteran signal-caller (Ryan Mallett for Arkansas, Jevan Snead for Ole Miss) and a good amount of other returning starters and were competitive against other top SEC teams the year prior. Unlike that '09 Ole Miss squad, they don't have Houston Nutt, a serial underachiever when expectations are high. This road trip to Georgia is their first real test of the season and the first game in a fairly brutal four-game stretch that will either reveal them as real contenders for an SEC (and possibly even national) title or expose them as fraudulent pretenders; after the road game against Georgia, Arkansas entertains Alabama at home, faces Texas A&M in Dallas, and heads back on the road to play Auburn. That's some tough sledding. A week ago, Georgia failed their first big test of the season, getting manhandled by South Carolina, 17-6. The Ol' Ball Coach rarely had South Carolina test Georgia's pass defense in that game -- why bother when Marcus Lattimore could grind those undersized Georgia defenders into dust -- but Petrino and Mallett figure to do just that on Saturday. If the Georgia pass defense can keep Mallett in check, they have a shot in this one. Here's guessing they struggle to do that.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS 31, GEORGIA 24
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)
Oh, ACC. It wasn't really just two weeks ago that you had five teams ranked in the top 20 and various pundits (including this one) suggesting that the ACC Coastal could be the toughest division in college football, was it? Yeah, about that... NOT SO MUCH. It may still be tough for one team to emerge from that division, but only because all the teams in it are varying degrees of mediocre. Georgia Tech dispatched South Carolina State easily in week one (41-10), but provided one of the more surprising upsets of the season in traveling to Lawrence and losing to the same Kansas team that a week earlier had failed to score a touchdown against a I-AA North Dakota State team. That's... not good. But when your quarterback goes 5/15, good things generally aren't right around the corner, even if you are an option team. On the other side, North Carolina has had two weeks to think about their near-miss against LSU and prepare for Georgia Tech's always-tricky offense. The bad news is that they still have no idea which players that were suspended for that LSU tilt may be available for this game; the wheels of NCAA justice move very slowly indeed. Giving a team an extra week to prepare for the Tech offense is usually a good way to neutralize (at least in part) its effectiveness, but that may not be of much aid to a Tar Heel team dealing with so much chaos.
THE PICK: GEORGIA TECH 34, NORTH CAROLINA 21
#8 Nebraska @ Washington (330pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
Nebraska pulled off a sloppy 38-17 win over Idaho last week, turning the ball over four times and committing ten penalties (for 123 yards); they'll need to be sharper than that to get to to 3-0 this week. The Washington hype bus got a flat tire in week one as they came undone on a road trip to BYU, but they bounced back nicely to take care of business against Syracuse last week. Nebraska obviously represents a massive leap in quality from either of those teams, but Washington has been a scrappy team against ranked opponents under Sarkisian. They went 2-3 a year ago, blasting a 19th ranked Cal team to the end the season and pulling off a memorable September upset over then-#3 USC. (In their three losses, they lost a spirited 31-23 game to LSU, but got smashed by both Oregon schools.) Granted, those teams may have been overrated at the time of those games (USC certainly was, judging by the rest of their season), but still: Sark has done an excellent job of getting his team ready to play against top teams when they come to Seattle. Nebraska, meanwhile, has found a bit of offense to go with their very solid defense, led by freshman quarterback Taylor "T-Magic" Martinez, who's been a capable passer (21/32, 242 yards, 0/1 TD/INT) and a dynamic runner (21 carries, 384 yards, 1 TD). Washington keeps it close by forcing Martinez into some costly errors, but Nebraska's defense ultimately makes enough stops to secure victory.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, WASHINGTON 24
Clemson @ #16 Auburn (7pm EST, ESPN)
Somewhat inexplicably, ESPN's College Gameday has chosen to head to this game this week. Maybe they got some good buy one/get one free deals when they were in Alabama for the Penn State-Alabama game last week. In any event, it is an intriguing match-up between one of the few ACC teams that hasn't fallen on their faces yet and an SEC West team that continues to generate buzz as an SEC title contender. Mind you, Clemson's largely managed to avoid the embarrassing fates that have befallen fellow ACC teams by playing no one with a pulse (North Texas and Presbyterian so far) and Auburn looked decidedly not-ready-for-primetime in eking out a win over a Mississippi State team that could barely complete a pass. Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper have done an adequate job of replacing CJ Spiller so far (27 carries, 243 yards, 4 TD) and QB Kyle Parker has been efficient (15/26, 283 yards, 4/1 TD/INT), but Auburn's defense is a gigantic leap in quality from the likes of the Mean Green and the Blue Hose. Auburn's been led by JUCO transfer QB Cam Newton, still best known for stealing a laptop at Florida a few years ago. Newton's leading the team in both passing (20/33, 322 yards, 5/1 TD/INT) and running (33 carries, 241 yards, 2 TD) and Clemson hasn't had to deal with anything like him yet. Throw in the fact that Auburn has utterly owned this series (14 wins in a row dating back to 1952, including 9 in a row in Auburn) and the pick to win is pretty easy. And, hell, Clemson's from the ACC -- are you really gonna pick them to do something good?
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, CLEMSON 24
#6 Texas @ Texas Tech (8pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
The last time Texas went to Lubbock these two teams played one of the best games of the last few years and Michael Crabtree made one of the most memorable catches of the decade in Tech's sensational upset of Texas that ended Texas' conference (and national) title ambitions. Sadly, most of the key personnel from that game -- Colt McCoy, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, Mike Leach -- are no longer around for this installment, so it may be hard to get a rematch that lives up to that tremendous standard. That said, if Texas Tech continues to build upon the promise shown in their first two games and the Texas offense continues to look lethargic, an upset isn't out of the question. The atmosphere in Lubbock should be frenzied and Tuberville's Auburn teams frequently played their best ball in the biggest games (from 2004-2008, Tuberville's Auburn teams went 9-6 against top ten-ranked foes). On the other hand, for all its sluggishness, the Texas offense hasn't turned the ball over thus far and has scored 30+ points in both games and the defense has been absolute nails most of the time. Thus far, Tuberville's stayed remarkably faithful to the Air Raid offense that Mike Leach installed at Texas Tech: they threw 53 times against SMU and 41 times against New Mexico. Of course, they also ran the ball 36 times against New Mexico and two backs had ten carries, so Tuberville clearly hasn't forgotten about establishing the run. Against a stout Texas defense that may be easier said than done, so look for Taylor Potts to chuck the ball early and often. On the other side of the ball, the Texas Tech defense hasn't been particularly fearsome yet: they conceded 433 yards of offense to New Mexico and two second-quarter touchdowns when the game was still in doubt to a degree. Against SMU they gave up 327 yards and 27 points, so this is clearly a work in progress; in any event, there should be some holes for the Texas offense to exploit. Unless Texas has some really costly turnovers, they should win this one; they have a defense capable of stopping Tech a few times, while Tech doesn't seem to have a defense capable of stopping Texas very often.
THE PICK: TEXAS 35, TEXAS TECH 24
#9 Iowa @ #24 Arizona (1030pm EST, ESPN)
And now we come to the only game of the day to feature two ranked opponents. Iowa beat Arizona 27-17 a year ago in Iowa City in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated (Arizona's two touchdowns came off a pick-six and late touchdown drive against reserve defenders after Iowa had already built a 27-10 lead). So what's changed in a year, aside from the locale? Not much for Iowa, aside from a rebuilt offensive line that's performed well against admittedly below-average competition (this week will be the first true test) and a linebacking corps that's two-thirds new. Arizona, on the other hand, has a lot of new faces in the front seven on defense, but returns a lot on offense. But the most significant change is at quarterback; Matt Scott was the Wildcats' QB in the early going last year, but he was so disastrous against Iowa (4/14, 50 yds, 0/1 TD/INT) that he gave way to Nick Foles... and never got the job back. Foles led the Arizona offense on their only scoring drive against Iowa a year ago and went to garner all-conference honors in the Pac-10; the Arizona offense really exploded when he took over and bears little resemblance to the outfit that sputtered and died against Iowa a year ago -- so that will be a significant new challenge. One thing that should give Iowa confidence? That offense curled up into a ball and whimpered when faced with a fast, hard-hitting, aggressive defense in Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl last year. Iowa doesn't have an Ndamukong Suh to lead that attack, but they do have Adrian Clayborn and the rest of a very aggressive and disruptive defensive line, linebackers that have been coming into their own, and a mostly veteran secondary.
#12 Arkansas @ Georgia (12pm EST, ESPN)
Arkansas was the trendy pick in the SEC this year, following in the proud footsteps of 2009 Ole Miss and 2008 Georgia, although by now the pollsters have learned their lesson well enough not to place Arkansas immediately in the top ten. They certainly didn't look like a top ten team in struggling with UL-Monroe for three quarters last week. Like that '09 Ole Miss squad, they feature a much-hyped veteran signal-caller (Ryan Mallett for Arkansas, Jevan Snead for Ole Miss) and a good amount of other returning starters and were competitive against other top SEC teams the year prior. Unlike that '09 Ole Miss squad, they don't have Houston Nutt, a serial underachiever when expectations are high. This road trip to Georgia is their first real test of the season and the first game in a fairly brutal four-game stretch that will either reveal them as real contenders for an SEC (and possibly even national) title or expose them as fraudulent pretenders; after the road game against Georgia, Arkansas entertains Alabama at home, faces Texas A&M in Dallas, and heads back on the road to play Auburn. That's some tough sledding. A week ago, Georgia failed their first big test of the season, getting manhandled by South Carolina, 17-6. The Ol' Ball Coach rarely had South Carolina test Georgia's pass defense in that game -- why bother when Marcus Lattimore could grind those undersized Georgia defenders into dust -- but Petrino and Mallett figure to do just that on Saturday. If the Georgia pass defense can keep Mallett in check, they have a shot in this one. Here's guessing they struggle to do that.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS 31, GEORGIA 24
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)
Oh, ACC. It wasn't really just two weeks ago that you had five teams ranked in the top 20 and various pundits (including this one) suggesting that the ACC Coastal could be the toughest division in college football, was it? Yeah, about that... NOT SO MUCH. It may still be tough for one team to emerge from that division, but only because all the teams in it are varying degrees of mediocre. Georgia Tech dispatched South Carolina State easily in week one (41-10), but provided one of the more surprising upsets of the season in traveling to Lawrence and losing to the same Kansas team that a week earlier had failed to score a touchdown against a I-AA North Dakota State team. That's... not good. But when your quarterback goes 5/15, good things generally aren't right around the corner, even if you are an option team. On the other side, North Carolina has had two weeks to think about their near-miss against LSU and prepare for Georgia Tech's always-tricky offense. The bad news is that they still have no idea which players that were suspended for that LSU tilt may be available for this game; the wheels of NCAA justice move very slowly indeed. Giving a team an extra week to prepare for the Tech offense is usually a good way to neutralize (at least in part) its effectiveness, but that may not be of much aid to a Tar Heel team dealing with so much chaos.
THE PICK: GEORGIA TECH 34, NORTH CAROLINA 21
#8 Nebraska @ Washington (330pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
Nebraska pulled off a sloppy 38-17 win over Idaho last week, turning the ball over four times and committing ten penalties (for 123 yards); they'll need to be sharper than that to get to to 3-0 this week. The Washington hype bus got a flat tire in week one as they came undone on a road trip to BYU, but they bounced back nicely to take care of business against Syracuse last week. Nebraska obviously represents a massive leap in quality from either of those teams, but Washington has been a scrappy team against ranked opponents under Sarkisian. They went 2-3 a year ago, blasting a 19th ranked Cal team to the end the season and pulling off a memorable September upset over then-#3 USC. (In their three losses, they lost a spirited 31-23 game to LSU, but got smashed by both Oregon schools.) Granted, those teams may have been overrated at the time of those games (USC certainly was, judging by the rest of their season), but still: Sark has done an excellent job of getting his team ready to play against top teams when they come to Seattle. Nebraska, meanwhile, has found a bit of offense to go with their very solid defense, led by freshman quarterback Taylor "T-Magic" Martinez, who's been a capable passer (21/32, 242 yards, 0/1 TD/INT) and a dynamic runner (21 carries, 384 yards, 1 TD). Washington keeps it close by forcing Martinez into some costly errors, but Nebraska's defense ultimately makes enough stops to secure victory.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, WASHINGTON 24
Clemson @ #16 Auburn (7pm EST, ESPN)
Somewhat inexplicably, ESPN's College Gameday has chosen to head to this game this week. Maybe they got some good buy one/get one free deals when they were in Alabama for the Penn State-Alabama game last week. In any event, it is an intriguing match-up between one of the few ACC teams that hasn't fallen on their faces yet and an SEC West team that continues to generate buzz as an SEC title contender. Mind you, Clemson's largely managed to avoid the embarrassing fates that have befallen fellow ACC teams by playing no one with a pulse (North Texas and Presbyterian so far) and Auburn looked decidedly not-ready-for-primetime in eking out a win over a Mississippi State team that could barely complete a pass. Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper have done an adequate job of replacing CJ Spiller so far (27 carries, 243 yards, 4 TD) and QB Kyle Parker has been efficient (15/26, 283 yards, 4/1 TD/INT), but Auburn's defense is a gigantic leap in quality from the likes of the Mean Green and the Blue Hose. Auburn's been led by JUCO transfer QB Cam Newton, still best known for stealing a laptop at Florida a few years ago. Newton's leading the team in both passing (20/33, 322 yards, 5/1 TD/INT) and running (33 carries, 241 yards, 2 TD) and Clemson hasn't had to deal with anything like him yet. Throw in the fact that Auburn has utterly owned this series (14 wins in a row dating back to 1952, including 9 in a row in Auburn) and the pick to win is pretty easy. And, hell, Clemson's from the ACC -- are you really gonna pick them to do something good?
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, CLEMSON 24
#6 Texas @ Texas Tech (8pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
The last time Texas went to Lubbock these two teams played one of the best games of the last few years and Michael Crabtree made one of the most memorable catches of the decade in Tech's sensational upset of Texas that ended Texas' conference (and national) title ambitions. Sadly, most of the key personnel from that game -- Colt McCoy, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, Mike Leach -- are no longer around for this installment, so it may be hard to get a rematch that lives up to that tremendous standard. That said, if Texas Tech continues to build upon the promise shown in their first two games and the Texas offense continues to look lethargic, an upset isn't out of the question. The atmosphere in Lubbock should be frenzied and Tuberville's Auburn teams frequently played their best ball in the biggest games (from 2004-2008, Tuberville's Auburn teams went 9-6 against top ten-ranked foes). On the other hand, for all its sluggishness, the Texas offense hasn't turned the ball over thus far and has scored 30+ points in both games and the defense has been absolute nails most of the time. Thus far, Tuberville's stayed remarkably faithful to the Air Raid offense that Mike Leach installed at Texas Tech: they threw 53 times against SMU and 41 times against New Mexico. Of course, they also ran the ball 36 times against New Mexico and two backs had ten carries, so Tuberville clearly hasn't forgotten about establishing the run. Against a stout Texas defense that may be easier said than done, so look for Taylor Potts to chuck the ball early and often. On the other side of the ball, the Texas Tech defense hasn't been particularly fearsome yet: they conceded 433 yards of offense to New Mexico and two second-quarter touchdowns when the game was still in doubt to a degree. Against SMU they gave up 327 yards and 27 points, so this is clearly a work in progress; in any event, there should be some holes for the Texas offense to exploit. Unless Texas has some really costly turnovers, they should win this one; they have a defense capable of stopping Tech a few times, while Tech doesn't seem to have a defense capable of stopping Texas very often.
THE PICK: TEXAS 35, TEXAS TECH 24
#9 Iowa @ #24 Arizona (1030pm EST, ESPN)
And now we come to the only game of the day to feature two ranked opponents. Iowa beat Arizona 27-17 a year ago in Iowa City in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated (Arizona's two touchdowns came off a pick-six and late touchdown drive against reserve defenders after Iowa had already built a 27-10 lead). So what's changed in a year, aside from the locale? Not much for Iowa, aside from a rebuilt offensive line that's performed well against admittedly below-average competition (this week will be the first true test) and a linebacking corps that's two-thirds new. Arizona, on the other hand, has a lot of new faces in the front seven on defense, but returns a lot on offense. But the most significant change is at quarterback; Matt Scott was the Wildcats' QB in the early going last year, but he was so disastrous against Iowa (4/14, 50 yds, 0/1 TD/INT) that he gave way to Nick Foles... and never got the job back. Foles led the Arizona offense on their only scoring drive against Iowa a year ago and went to garner all-conference honors in the Pac-10; the Arizona offense really exploded when he took over and bears little resemblance to the outfit that sputtered and died against Iowa a year ago -- so that will be a significant new challenge. One thing that should give Iowa confidence? That offense curled up into a ball and whimpered when faced with a fast, hard-hitting, aggressive defense in Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl last year. Iowa doesn't have an Ndamukong Suh to lead that attack, but they do have Adrian Clayborn and the rest of a very aggressive and disruptive defensive line, linebackers that have been coming into their own, and a mostly veteran secondary.
On offense, Iowa's approach won't be much of a mystery: they're going to pound away with their physical offensive line and the one-two punch of Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton at running back and then use play-action to go over the top to Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. A week ago, they demoralized Iowa State with an unstoppable, punishing ground game and followed it up by finishing them off with some deep bombs in the passing game. If the offensive line can open holes for the running game and give Stanzi time to survey the field, the Iowa offense should do very well; on the other hand, the Arizona defense has far more speed and physical talent than either the Iowa State or the Eastern Illinois defenses, so the going won't be easy. Iowa has a dreadful record in games played out west, but that was then and this is now: they have a well-prepared, mentally tough team that should be able to punish Arizona physically.
THE PICK: IOWA 27, ARIZONA 20
THE PICK: IOWA 27, ARIZONA 20
Sunday, August 29, 2010
SEC Preview
2009 Standings
East
Florida Gators 13-1 (8-0)
Georgia Bulldogs 8-5 (4-4)
Tennessee Volunteers 7-6 (4-4)
Kentucky Wildcats 7-6 (3-5)
South Carolina Gamecocks 7-6 (3-5)
Vanderbilt Commodores 2-10 (0-8)
West
Alabama Crimson Tide 14-0 (8-0)
LSU Tigers 9-4 (5-3)
Mississippi Rebels 9-4 (4-4)
Arkansas Razorbacks 8-5 (3-5)
Auburn Tigers 8-5 (3-5)
Mississippi State 5-7 (3-5)
SEC Championship Game: Alabama 32 Florida 13
Returning Leaders: Passing
Ryan Mallet, Arkansas, Jr (225 of 403 for 3624, 30 TD, 7 INT)
Stephen Garcia, SC, Jr (239 of 432 for 2862, 17 TD, 10 INT)
Greg McElroy, Alabama, Sr (198 of 325 for 2508, 17 TD, 4 INT)
Jordan Jefferson, LSU, Jr (182 for 296 for 2166, 17 TD, 7 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
Mark Ingram, Alabama, Jr (271 carries for 1658 yds, 17 TD)
Derrick Locke, Kentucky, Sr (196 carries for 908 yds, 6 TD)
Warren Norman, Vandy, Soph (145 carries for 784 yds, 3 TD)
Trent Richardson, Alabama, Soph (144 carries for 749 yds, 8 TD)
Jeff Demps, Florida, Jr (99 carries for 745 yds, 7 TD)
Washaun Ealey, Georgia, Soph (125 carries for 717 yds, 3 TD)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Darvin Adams, Auburn, Jr (70 rec for 1135 yds, 8 TD)
A.J. Green, Georgia, Jr (53 rec for 808 yds, 6 TD)
Terrance Toliver, LSU, Sr (53 rec for 735 yds, 3 TD)
Greg Childs, Arkansas, Jr (48 rec for 894 yds, 7 TD)
Alshon Jeffrey, SC, Soph (46 rec for 763 yds, 6 TD)
Gerald Jones, Tennessee, Sr (46 rec for 680 yds, 4 TD)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Chris Marve, Vandy, Jr, LB (121 total, 10.1 tackles/game)
Kelvin Sheppard, LSU, Sr, LB (110 total, 8.4 tackles/game)
Josh Bynes, Auburn, Sr, LB (104 total, 8.0 tackles/game)
Craig Stevens, Auburn, Sr, LB (95 total, 7.3 tackles/game)
Jerry Franklin, Arkansas, Jr, LB (94 total, 7.2 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Justin Houston, Jr, Georgia, OLB (7.5 sacks)
Cliff Matthews, Sr, SC, DE (7.0)
Marcell Dareus, Jr, Alabama, DE (6.5)
DeQuin Evans, Sr, Kentucky, DE (6.0)
Demarcus Dobbs, Sr, Georgia, DE (5.5)
Jake Bequette, Jr, Arkansas, DE (5.5)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Mark Barron, Jr, Alabama, S (7)
Corey Broomfield, Soph, Miss St, CB (6)
Johnthan Banks, Soph, Miss St, S (4)
Charles Mitchell, Jr, Miss St, S (4)
BREAKING DOWN THE SEC WITH THE ZEALOTS
Chris (Prediction: West #1; SEC Champion): The defending national champions have a tough task defensively, replacing 9 (or 10 if you want to get technical) starters. But I count the injured Dont'a Hightower who began the season last year as a starter in the group coming back. Offensively they will be fine, sporting the nations best tailback duo. To be honest, Ingram doesn't have much of a chance to repeat as the Heisman winner because true sophomore Trent Richardson is the more talented back and will be drafted as the first overall back if Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams isn't. Greg McElroy silenced any doubters a year ago with efficient play. He wasn't asked to do much, but what he was asked to do, he did. He is Alabama's version of Matt Flynn, proving you can be just solid and win it all. As for their chances for repeating, I am always leery of that, not just because people are out to get them, but also because it just happens so infrequently. I'm not going to bet on the Tide having that level of success a second-straight year, but if any team could repeat, it's Alabama.
J Martin (Prediction: West #1; SEC Champion): I almost feel like I should excuse myself from this one. If nothing else, I’ve probably run my mouth about Bama enough for one off-season. But don’t think that will stop me. In a nutshell, they should be favored in every game, should win the West, and probably the SEC, and who knows, maybe play for another national title. It won’t be easy, but if they can handle potential problems in the secondary, special teams, the schedule, and satisfaction, they’ll be successful to those ends. For the record, the solutions to those problems are, in order, experience, experience, experience, SABAN.
Kevin (Prediction: West #1; SEC Champion): Lump me in with the rest of the Zealots on this one. I see Bama repeating but I don't think it will be as easy as last year. I think Bama losses to Florida in the regular season but comes back to knock them off in the SEC Championship game.
Ross (Prediction: West #1; SEC Champion): Alabama loses an absolute ton on defense, but like Florida, they have a ton of talent stockpiled and ready to reload, including freak DT/DE Marcell Dareus and LB Dont'a Hightower. The question mark is their secondary, which will be very raw -- can they shut down some high-powered offenses from Arkansas or Florida or Auburn? On the other hand, they might just need to slow the opposing offenses down a little because the Bama offense should be able to put quite a few points of their own on the board; they return almost everyone from last year's squad, including the Heisman Trophy winner (Mark Ingram) and his primary back-up (Trent Richardson), who may actually be better than Ingram. QB Greg McElroy and WR Julio Jones are back, too, so this team shouldn't have too much trouble putting up points. After what they've done the past few years, they deserve the benefit of the doubt, even in a division as loaded as the SEC West.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Chris (Prediction: West #2): The Razorbacks come into the season looking good on paper with the gunslinging giant Ryan Mallett behind center, but does anyone else have serious questions about Bobby Petrino coached teams? Who knows, if they don't do well, he could just walk out mid-season again. Despite what I just said, I think they are the second best team in the division.
J Martin (Prediction: West #4): I’d stop short of saying the 2010 Razorbacks are going to flame out like the 2009 Ole Miss team did, but I do think they’re over hyped. Offensively, yes, they have it all: the most talented QB in the conference (maybe not the best, but the most talented), the best receiving corps, a big, experienced OL, and some solid running backs. They can throw up a lot of points. But defensively, while they bring back almost everyone, this is another one of those situations where I’m not so sure it’s a good thing. They were terrible last year. They gave up 420 yards and almost 30 points per game in conference play. And that was with 9 starters back. The issue at Arkansas wasn’t experience, it was talent. And most of those same guys with sub-par SEC talent are back this year. I don’t see them improving enough to win more games than they did in 09. Okay, since they trade off Florida for Vanderbilt, they should win one more. Despite they hype around his arm, Ryan Mallett is not a superman who can gun-sling Arkansas to a West division crown. I foresee his defense putting him in a lot of obvious throwing situations and a lot of elite SEC linemen and linebackers putting him on the run like lions after a baby giraffe on the Serengeti.
Kevin (Prediction: #4 West): Ryan Mallet passed for 3,624 yards and 30 TD with only 7 INT last year. And Arkansas still came in 4th in the SEC West (tied with 3 other teams) at 8-5 (3-5 in the conference). I think Mallet will be good this year but I can't see him passing those numbers and the defense is still not very good. I could see Arkansas going 5-3 in the West if everything went their way but I think they are closer to 4-4.
Ross (Prediction: #2 West): The Hogs should have a murderous offense with virtually all of the starters back from a year ago. They need to get QB Ryan Mallet healthy and up to speed again, but if he's fine, the offense should have little trouble racking up points, even against most SEC defenses (and it won't hurt that there aren't expected to be any SEC defenses as good as the '09 Bama version or the '08 Florida incarnation). The defense also looks pretty solid, with seven returning starters. They have a brutal stretch of games from late September through mid-October that should determine whether they're SEC contenders or pretenders: @ Georgia, Alabama, bye, Texas A&M, @ Auburn. Obviously the A&M game doesn't matter for the SEC race, but it should be a good challenge in the midst of some tough SEC games; they probably need to go at least 2-1 in those SEC games to have a realistic hope at taking the division.
Alex (Prediction: #1 West; SEC Champion): Yes I picked Auburn,. Yes I know Alabama is still good, however I think the Iron Bowl decides the winner in the West.
Chris (Prediction: #3 West): Gene Chiziks second year SHOULD be better than his first. Chizik's late season losing streak helped to doom the Tigers. A year later, they are back and ready to prove 2009 wasn't a fluke. The Tigers start the season ranked, and after a year in Chizik's system, bet on it catching on.
J Martin (Prediction: #3 West): Maybe I should be required to excuse myself from this one, too. There’s a lot of optimism around Auburn this year. There are quite a few people who think Auburn can push Alabama in the West, and even win it (I’m looking at you, Herbstreit). To some extent, I get it. They return a lot of experience on defense and the offensive line, and they pulled in a very strong recruiting class that included the Tigers’ new messiah, Cameron Newton. But in those strengths, I can also see weaknesses. All those returning players on defense weren’t especially good last year, barring that one game against Alabama. This year, they’ll be supplemented by talented freshmen, but they’re still going to be freshmen. And you don’t want to be relying on a bunch of freshmen to make significant contributions in the SEC. Ask South Carolina how that worked out last year. They have trouble performing consistently. As for Newton…Well, find me the last big JUCO QB who came into the SEC and lived up to expectations. I’ll wait. But even beyond that, Newton struggles with being consistently accurate with his passes, and being consistently accurate is THE most important trait for the QB of a hurry-up offense, much more-so than having a laser rocket arm. Urban Meyer let this guy go. ‘Nuff said. Nonetheless, Auburn has the schedule to win 8 or 9 games. But much like last year, they’ll light it up out of conference, then become much more human when they run into the LSU’s, Georgia’s, and Bama’s. Auburn always implodes when they get a little buzz going.
Kevin (Prediction: #3 West): Auburn really struggled last year once they got into the teeth of the SEC schedule as they went 2-5 from Oct 10th to Nov 27th. Auburn will be better this year because they will have more depth but they aren't ready to contend for the West title just quite yet.
Ross (Prediction: #3 West): Auburn returns a ton on offense, but has to break in a new QB (former Florida laptop thief Cam Newton) and a new-ish RB (Mario Fannin), although they also have some big-time freshman running backs to carry the load. The Gus Malzahn offense was a handful a year ago and could be even nastier this year with most of the players being more experienced in running it... IF Cam Newton can keep things rolling. Then again, they ran it with Chris Todd last year, so it shouldn't take much to make it work even better. There's also quite a bit of talent back on defense. The schedule isn't all that favorable (they draw Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina from the SEC East), but they do get an extra week to prep for Alabama. It's also hard to rate them higher until Gene Chizik proves he's a good coach; they looked decent last year, but it's going to take more than 7-5 record and a bowl win.
Alex (Prediction: #1 East): Florida has every tough SEC game, with the exception of Alabama, in Gainesville. While not a world beater Florida has the advantage of Georgia and Tennessee being down. I see Florida taking a business trip to Atlanta in December.
Chris (Prediction: #1 East): This is such a trendy pick, and I hate myself for making it, but I was running into walls every time I was trying to go with my gut and not have Florida coming out on top. They lose as much as any other team in the nation, and only truly great programs can put themselves back together and reload in one season. That will be the test this year for Urban Meyer. Obviously you can point out that he has risen the Florida program's national profile, adding two national championships and a near miss a year ago in only 5 years. But, remember the last time Meyer had to reload in 2007? Yes, Tebow won the Heisman, but the Gators finished 9-4. My point is that by only returning 10 starters, the Gators are at risk of that same destiny. They certainly won't contend for a national title, but they probably won't stray too far from the top-25 either. Replacing Tebow will be junior John Brantley, who operated Urban Meyer's spread with scary efficiency a year ago (going 36-48 for 410 yards and 7 TD's to no INT's). I mean look at those numbers! Yikes! That has to be the system, right? 7 TD's in just 48 pass attempts! Still hard to believe no matter how many times I say it. Brantley was a highly rated prep QB, although was/is no Tebow. But with weapons like Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and Deonte Thompson coming back he may not have to be. The biggest question to me is defense. If Georgia had any semblance of a good quarterback I'd have them running away with the division because of Florida's defense. But they don't, so I have to put my money on the Gators. It may not be pretty, but they should still have enough to win it, even if that means they lose 2-3 games in conference. Also, here's my prediction: Urban Meyer takes off after this year and does not coach college football next year. He's such a perfectionist that he can't stand losing. If he couldn't stand it under Tebow, imagine how much losses could hurt under Brantley when there are more?
J Martin (Prediction: #1 East): Defensively, the Gators are kinda in the same boat as Alabama in the sense that people are overstating their losses on defense. Both schools have recruited at such a high level over the past few years that they can plug ‘n play with the young guys and still compete with anybody. There will be some growing pains, but they’ll be good enough to keep the Gators in every game. And I think the offense will need it. John Brantley is an extremely talented quarterback, but he’s “the guy after the guy,” which is never a good position to be in, especially when the offense is having to be revamped to suit the change. Ultimately, I think the offense will end up looking like the 2006 BCS championship unit (more plays from under center, lots of hocus pocus to cover up for the lack of a QB run threat), which wasn’t a bad offense but also wasn’t the dominant force it became under Tim Tebow (failed to score over 26 points in any SEC regular season game). I’ll be interested to see what kind of help Brantley gets, as well. Jeff Demps worked well with Tebow, but I wonder how he’ll like running between the tackles now that the defense won’t have to respect the QB run threat. If he can’t cut it, who will? Emmanuel Moody, finally? If he could, he would have already because Urban has long lamented not having a more powerful back. Mike Gillislee, maybe? Not impressed. Likewise, there are no proven receiving options, just a lot of talent and promise. Who knows how they’ll turn out. Despite all that, I still think they’ll win the division and have another shot at Bama. It’ll just be more difficult than they’re accustomed to of late.
Kevin (Prediction: #1 East): This is the year for the rest of the East to catch the Gators but I don't see it happening. That being said, I think Florida takes a small step back this year and struggles to the win the division (although I do have them beating Bama in the regular season as Herban Meyer will have this game marked on the schedule). The biggest loss for the Gators this off-season was Charlie Strong and Florida has downgraded in Defensive Coordinators so it will be interesting to see how that affects their play on the field. I think John Brantley will be just fine but Herban will need to tweak the offense to him and it may take a while to get it going. If Brantley goes down, watch out SEC East.
Ross (Prediction: #1 East): Florida has a ton to replace between the loss of Tebow, Riley Cooper, and a good chunk of the defense; fortunately for them, few teams have recruited better over the past few years and are so well-suited to simply reload. It doesn't hurt that there don't appear to be any other significantly strong contenders in the East waiting to topple Florida. They probably won't go undefeated this year... but they probably won't need to in order to win the East.
Chris (Prediction: #2 East): Where's that guy Matthew Stafford? He's still eligible, right? No. Crap. Well, our problem is we really need to get the ball in the hands of A.J. Green, but we don't have the guy to do it. Enter freshman Aaron Murray. I'm not saying he's the guy who will get it done, I'm just saying he's the guy that will HAVE to get it done for the Dawgs to be successful. And I don't think he will. Sure, they may be sniffing a 10-win season this coming year, but they aren't the Georgia of 2008 that for some reason everybody and their mother had an unnatural infatuation with. They might beat at Florida's door for the division crown, but unless Murray wanders past his pay-grade (figuratively speaking) they won't get in. Georgia's year is 2011 unless A.J. Green leaves for the draft (which is a strong possibility), but I wouldn't sleep on the 2010 version either.
J Martin (Prediction: #2 East): There’s a lot of buzz about South Carolina’s potential to unseat Florida at the top of the division, but I think the Georgia still present the strongest threat to the Gators. If the Bulldogs are going to take advantage of Florida being as down as they’re going to be for a while, obviously the #1 priority has to be improving the defense. New DC Todd Grantham is no Kirby Smart, but he brought the 3-4 defense with him, all the same. There’s going to be some degree of an adjustment period due to the switch. Even beyond the differences in scheme, you also have to reshape the bodies of your defense to fit their new roles, which takes time. There are different variations of the 3-4, but whichever way you go, you really need bigs up the middle to make it work. When the Dawgs initially said they were making the switch, I kinda wrote off the defense this year for “adjustment.” But looking at the roster now with the season a week away, they seem a little better suited to make a good showing of themselves. I think it will help them out a ton (no pun intended) if bigs like Justin Anderson and/or Kwame Geathers can step up and be the man at nose guard, allowing DeAngelo Tyson to slide over to a 3-4 end position that’s more natural for his size. They won’t be dominant overnight, but I think a new DC and a new scheme can light a fire under these guys and put an end to the soft play that had set in under Willy Martinez. Offensively, they’ll be fine. The only question mark there is what they’re going to get out of Aaron Murray at quarterback, but I feel confident that he’ll be a lot closer to Matt Stafford than Joe Cox. If the defense shows up this season, there’s no reason Georgia can’t play in a New Year’s bowl and push Florida. However, if they fall on their faces again, and commit a ton of penalties and turnovers in the process, you have to start to assume it's not a scheme thing, or a player thing, it's a cultural thing. And a team's culture starts with the head coach. In that case, it might be time to seriously consider making a change up top.
Kevin (Prediction: #2 East): Georgia has the most offensive talent in the SEC East (best OL, best TE unit, best FBs, best individual WR, best RB combo) but they will be breaking in a new QB whose back-up is a true freshman. As long as Georgia can keep Aaron Murray upright they should be fine on offense. Georgia hired Dallas Cowboys DL coach Todd Grantham as their new DC and he's bringing in the 3-4. Georgia will be hitting people in the mouth this year instead of playing a soft zone and waiting for their opponents to tire from gaining so many yards. It might take a while for Georgia to adjust to the 3-4 but by the end of the year Georgia is going to be a defense that you do not want to face. Justin Houston and Darryl Gamble will thrive at OLB and a name that is really under the radar is DE Demarcus Dobbs (he's actually one of the leading returning sack artists in the SEC). Georgia beats Florida this year at the Cocktail party but I think Florida wins the division and returns to the SEC Championship game. Also, don't forget that Georgia has the best kicker/punter combination in the Nation and have two legitimate big-play returners in Brandon Boykin and Branden Smith that can take one to the house at any moment. Boykin had 3 KO returns for TD last year and word on the street is Smith will get a chance to return punts. The key to this season for Georgia is the back-to-back opening games against South Carolina and Arkansas. Go 0-2 you will hear people calling for CMR's head, go 1-1 you are still in a position to have a good year, go 2-0 watch out because this team could win the East.
Ross (Prediction: #2 East): Georgia is absolutely loaded with returning talent on offense and should have one of the SEC's best offenses if they can get solid play out of the QB position. The bigger question marks are on defense where they're learning new schemes under a new defensive coordinator and breaking in a fair number of new starters. They'll be tested early by games against South Carolina (the other big challenger in the East) and Arkansas (one of the challengers in the West); if they can get off to a hot start (and possibly even if they just split those games), it wouldn't be a shock to see the SEC East yet again be decided by the Cocktail Party game against Florida.
Chris (Prediction: #5 East): The Wildcats have won 7-games for four consecutive seasons. While that is great for them, most of that is a reflection of Andre Woodson and not those guys there now. While Kentucky has a sufficient amount of talent back from a decidedly average team a year ago, I don't see them improving. If anything, it's the status quo. Winning 7 games again is a fat chance, but with a fairly young roster for Joker Phillips, the future looks alright. Don't count them out of the bowl picture though should one of the top 4 slip.
J Martin (Prediction: #4 East): I’m not a huge fan of this Kentucky team, but they’re more talented than Vanderbilt and more stable than Tennessee. Their schedule looks manageable, as well. They draw the two Mississippi schools from the West, as well as Auburn at home (who they beat in Auburn last year). They also get South Carolina and Georgia at home. Between the level of competition and circumstances surrounding the games, I think the Cats can be competitive in 6 of their 8 conference games and could win half of those. If they can improve their rush defense and have a more stable QB situation, they should have no problem winning enough games to get to their 5th straight bowl. Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb could play for almost anyone in the conference.
Kevin (Prediction: #4 East): I really like Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb. Unfortunately, that's about it. Cobb and Locke will step up and beat somebody they shouldn't this year but it still won't keep Kentucky out of 4th place.
Ross (Prediction: #4 East): This pick has as much to do with the uncertainty at Tennessee as it does with the relative strength of the Wildcats. That said, Kentucky should be pretty solid on both sides of the ball if the new-look offensive line can cohere and they have a very favorable schedule; they draw Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Auburn from the West, their non-conference slate is a joke, and they get most of their tough games at home. This team isn't going to contend for the division, but they really should head to another bowl game. The real intrigue is in whether they can finally end the 25-year losing streak to Tennessee.
Chris (Prediction: #4 West): Going into 2009, much of the concern was over quarterback, where sophomore Jordan Jefferson took over a team ready to compete. Despite that experience, going into 2010, one of the biggest questions for LSU is still the quarterback. Jefferson was amazing against Georgia Tech in LSU's bowl in 2008. The kid has potential, but he'll have to grow immensely to lead his team to anything better than a 4th place division finish.
J Martin (Prediction: #2 West): People are really sleeping on LSU this year. Most pundits and publications I’ve seen are pegging the Tigers for FOURTH in the conference. I mostly attribute this to a combination of the positive perceptions surrounding Auburn and Arkansas and a hangover from Les Miles’ blunders. And, look, you’ll get no argument from me on the stupidity of Miles as a coach. But he’s still a top notch recruiter, and if you’ve got elite talent, you’re always going to be competitive in the SEC. The past two years, LSU’s roster has skewed really young. Well, this year, their roster distribution leans a bit older, meaning the team will be more seasoned and smart, even if the coach isn’t. Schedule-wise, they also get a big help by drawing the two worst teams out of the East this year (Tennessee, Vanderbilt). Even though I’m picking them 2nd in the West, and I think the division title WILL be decided when they play Alabama (for the 3rd straight year), they’re not really close to Bama or Florida right now, though the actual game scores could be close. Their main issues are that they’re a bit undersized up front on defense (kiss of death against Alabama), and they don’t have a quarterback. Jordan Jefferson is not good, Jarrett Lee is worse. And due to attrition and moving Russell Shepard to a hybrid RB/WR role, they don’t have anyone on deck that looks promising. Until they find one (and maybe a new coach), they won’t win another SEC crown.
Kevin (Prediction: #2 West): I also feel that LSU is being slept on. I have more confidence in them coming in 2nd than I do in Auburn or Arkansas and LSU still has John Chavis as their DC so you know their D is going to be good at worst. Question of the Day: Who do you want coaching your team? Les Miles, Yellow Bellied Bobby Petrino or Gene Chizik (who went 5-19 at Iowa State and 2-14 in the Big 12)?
Ross (Prediction: #4 West): If LSU really does finish this low, Les Miles is probably toast at LSU. They bring back only six on offense and even less on defense and that could be disastrous in such a cutthroat division. Not to mention Miles' penchant for terrible clock management and tendency to blow some close games; a few close games in '10 could be the difference between 7-5 and 9-3... and Miles losing his job or keeping it. Still, the schedule sets up fairly well for them, giving them a bye before Alabama and lay-up games against McNeese State and UL-Monroe before Auburn and Arkansas. If they get off to a hot start (eminently possible), they could pull off a good season.
Chris (Prediction: #5 West): The Rebs lost All-everything back Dexter McCluster to the NFL and are fairly green on offense and dry on defense. The only reason that the Rebels avoided sixth on my list was that Mississippi State exists. I went with Ole Miss over their in-state rivals because of the playmakers they have on the defensive side of the ball.
J Martin (Prediction: #5 West): I think the Masoli thing is a huge miscalculation by Houston Nutt. This team wasn’t going to contend for any championships with or without him. At the same time, the schedule is soft enough that you could win at least 6 games and go to a bowl game to keep everyone happy no matter who the quarterback is. The quarterback position was going to be an issue, but it was FAR from the only one, nor was it even the biggest. I don’t see why Nutt couldn’t just “suffer” through a mediocre bowl season while grooming Nathan Stanley for the future. Then again, it may still turn out that way, because Masoli is a terrible fit for a pro style offense. He’s an awful passer who got most of his yards at Oregon off typical spread stuff (screens, throwing to receivers open by 10 yards off play action and misdirection). Go watch last year’s Oregon/Boise game to see how he does when he has to just take a drop and throw. He throws an ugly, ugly ball. He may help the Rebels in the Wildcat, but I can’t see him as a pro-style QB. Regardless of who ends up as the starting QB for the duration, they won’t have much help. The offensive line is even less experienced than it was last year when it imploded and drove Jevan Snead insane. Oh, they also lost that McCluster fellow, who, if I recall, pretty much was the offense. They don’t have anyone to replace him. Brandon Bolden is a reliable running back, but nobody is afraid of him. Defensively, they should be salty, and Tyrone Nix is one of the great defensive coordinators out there. But they’re going to be on the field a LOT this season.
Kevin (Prediction: #5 West): Ole Miss is going to have a really good defense this year. Unfortunately they will have probably the worst offense in the SEC this side of Vandy. The X-factor is Jeremiah Masoli but Nutt will have to tweak the offense a lot for him to succeed and is it worth it for one year?
Ross (Prediction: #5 West): I actually think Miss. State is better than Ole Miss this year from a talent/coaching standpoint, but they have a murderous schedule, while Ole Miss has a very manageable one. While they have to deal with the usual tough SEC West foes, they draw the three easiest teams from the SEC East (Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt). Couple that with a pretty lightweight non-conference slate and they're a good bet to make another bowl game. They're also a bit of a wildcard with Jermiah Masoli on board; he's talented, but it's hard to say how well he'll fit into Ole Miss' offensive schemes and it's even harder to predict what sort of impact his arrival will have on team chemistry. He could help them steal a few more wins from the SEC West... or he could utterly torpedo their season.
Chris (Prediction: #6 West): The Bulldogs were once again one of the worst passing teams in nation. Without some drastic, and I mean DRASTIC improvements there and everywhere else, Mississippi State will be the laughingstock of the SEC.
J Martin (Prediction: #6 West): As a team, I actually like the Bulldogs quite a bit more than Ole Miss, but the Rebels have a cake walk conference slate (drawing the bottom 3 from the East), whereas MSU pulls Georgia and Florida and has 3 tough conference games in the first month of the season when they’ll still be gelling as a team. Dan Mullen got last year’s team to over perform, pulling a couple of near-upsets of conference powers and almost qualifying for a bowl. Obviously, they lose their #1 offensive weapon this year, Anthony Dixon (who actually accounted for more TDs and nearly as many total yards as the passing game did in 2009). That said, I think the overall unit will be much improved. Chris Relf, the “running” QB last year, should be improved as a passer, and red-shirt freshman Tyler Russell looks like a much better option as the “passing” QB than the awful Tyson Lee was last year. I think Mullen would like to stick with Relf to help the running game, but no matter how it shakes out, it’ll be better. Defensively, they weren’t good last year, but they bring nearly everyone back, so there should be some slight improvement. Although, much like Arkansas, it’s still more of a talent issue than an experience one. Ultimately, I think the schedule keeps them in the cellar and out of a bowl game for another year.
Kevin (Prediction: #6 West): I like what Dan Mullen is doing. Unfortunately, the SEC West is the most stacked division in all of football this year. Give Mullen a couple more years as I think he will prove himself to be the 2nd best coach in the West (behind Osama bin Saban).
Ross (Prediction: #6 West): This is purely a schedule pick. I think Mississippi State has a bit more talent than Ole Miss (especially on offense) and better coaching, but they draw Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky while Ole Miss gets Tennessee, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Dan Mullen has them headed in the right direction, but this year's schedule may be a bit beyond their capabilities right now.
Alex (Prediction: #2 East): I see the Gamecocks being the only team that can take advantage if Florida makes a misstep this season. I am not sure that Carolina can beat Florida in Gainesville. The stars are aligned for Carolina to perhaps have the best season ever (or at least since 'Black Magic' in '84). South Carolina has Auburn after they play a tough Clemson team, Alabama the week after playing an incredibly tough Florida squad not to mention that USC has the previous week off. Tennessee may give up on their season by the time they roll into Columbia for Halloween. The big Spur has started playing QB games naming Conner Shaw the starter for the opener, however most believe that Garcia will win back the job before game time.
Chris (Prediction: #3 East): Is this finally the year that Steve Spurrier can make South Carolina even quasi-relevant? Um...well, yeah I guess. Maybe they'll be 8-5 this year or even 9-4. Baby steps. They certainly return enough on offense and on defense to be a formidable SEC foe, especially in a historically weak East Division. If the question is are they going to get over that hump and be an elite team? I say no, but it all depends on the NCAA's findings on star TE Weslye Saunders and how that effects his eligibility, and the continued progression of Stephen Garcia. Even without Saunders, if Garcia can keep his nose clean (haha, couldn't resist) I think they can be the 8-5, maybe even a 9-4 team if they're lucky.
J Martin (Prediction: #3 East): These guys are a myth. There are three things you've been able to count on from the Gamecocks over the past few seasons: 1. The defense will be fast and nasty. 2. The offensive line will be soft. 3. Stephen Garcia will always blow it. I’ve not heard nor seen anything this off-season to convince me that won’t be the case this year. Not even Spurrier believes Garcia is going to have a breakthrough in 2010, but a lot of pundits think they know better. They don’t. And it’s too bad for South Carolina fans, because otherwise the offense looks really good. Tori Gurley and Alshon Jeffery are very promising wideouts who are going to be Twin Towers on the field together (6’5” and 6’4”, respectively). They’ll be difficult for anybody to match up with. And then there’s the addition of All-Everything freshman Marcus Lattimore, the Gamecocks' first legitimate rushing threat in a decade. But Garcia and the OL can’t help but ruin it for them. Looks like another 7 or 8 win year for the Gamecocks. And if that turns out to be the case, you have to wonder how much longer HBC wants to keep pounding his head against the wall in Columbia.
Kevin (Prediction: #3 East): Where has Darth Visor gone? As a Georgia fan, Spurrier is somebody that used to put fear in my heart but now I fear Ellis Johnson a lot more than Spurrier. The pivotal game once again for the Cocks is the Georgia game and Carolina gets them early, before the 3-4 and Murray have had a chance to get experience in the SEC. I could see Carolina getting as high as 2nd in the SEC but they have Georgia, Auburn and Alabama in their first five games and that's going to be a tough run. Oh yeah, somebody tell that Saunders kid to shut the hell up.
Ross (Prediction: #3 East): It's seemed like it was finally going to be "the year" for South Carolina for many of the last few seasons... but this really might be "the year" for them, with the uncertainty at Florida and Georgia, the rebuilding going on at Tennessee, and the strength of this team. The 'Cocks return a lot on offense (especially along the offensive line), although their success is ultimately going to come down to whether or not super-recruit Marcus Lattimore can live up to the hype at RB and if Stephen Garcia can emerge as a consistent threat at QB. The schedule isn't terrible, since they get most of their toughest games at home (sans Florida) and get two weeks to prep for Alabama; drawing Bama, Auburn, and Arkansas from the West is tough, though, and the late-season road game against Florida could be a bear. The early game against Georgia and the late game against Florida will be key.
Alex (Prediction: #6 East): I feel that Tennessee's early season gambit is going to be too much especially if injuries set in at key positions. This team even injury free may not be good enough to win four games. Expect the worst single season in Tennessee's storied history.
Chris (Prediction: #4 East): It is incredibly satisfying to me to see the Vols down on their luck. The whole Lane Kiffin/Vols' saga, I thought it was epic, even though I hate Lane Kiffin. Do I have a heart? Yes, but it has been severely damaged by all of the insults and ill will that was thrown my way as a Hokie fan. But now, the tables have turned, and although Vols' fans are still talking some serious trash (for a team that got just demolished 37-14 by Virginia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl), I know that they are backed into a corner. This year's Vols' team will be even more mediocre than the last. I think Derek Dooley is a stretch to be a coach in the SEC, especially after his losing record at Louisiana Tech. It's a move that perhaps if it was made 5 years later it would pay dividends. Right now Dooley faces a mammoth challenge of transitioning Kiffin's recruits and Fulmer's holdouts to his system and back to respectability. But, with no quarterback on the roster having attempted a pass from a year ago, no rusher with over 100 yards, no Eric Berry, and nowhere near the level of coaching that these kids will receive, 4th place is maybe even a little generous. If Kentucky and Vandy weren't as limited from a talent standpoint as they are, I would pick them. Expect Dooley's stay in Knoxville to be a short but less eventful one.
J Martin (Prediction: #5 East): Being a Bama fan, I should probably take a lot more joy in Tennessee’s current predicament than I actually do. I just like Derek Dooley. Unfortunately, he’s walked into a nightmare situation in the wake of the Phil Fulmer ouster and, well, pretty much everything about Lane Kiffin’s tenure in Knoxville. I’m afraid he’s fated to be the Mike Shula of Tennessee. The nice, clean face you put on the program until things stabilize and you can go get the big time coach you really want. This is just an ugly scene. Between graduation, early draft entry, the natural attrition that occurs during a coaching changeover (twice in a year’s time at UT), and the washing out of the highly touted thugs Kiffin brought in, the 2010 Vols barely resemble an SEC team. They have solid numbers back on defense but not a lot of SEC-caliber playmakers to replace the Berry’s, McCoy’s, and Williams’. They also have some very nice receivers. They just don’t have the quarterback to get it to them, or the offensive line to keep him upright long enough to throw it to begin with. The OL is really the worst part of this bad team. It’s inexperienced and shallow, almost beyond belief. One or two injuries and they’re playing walk-ons at the most critical positions on the field. And the schedule is absolutely unforgiving. They draw Alabama and LSU (away) out of the West and have to travel away to play 3 of their intra-divisional opponents. All I can say is I hope Dooley is recruiting hard.
Kevin (Prediction: #5 East): The entire Kiffin saga was so epic. Everybody outside of Tennessee say it coming and everybody inside of Tennessee bought in hook line and sinker. Tennessee just has no depth and when you try to go through the SEC with no depth then you are going to be no good. I'm not even sure Dooley is the right guy as he struggled at Louisiana Tech. Only time will tell, but I think Tennessee fans are not going to sit by and watch Dooley try to rebuild the program. It's going to be a tough few years for the Vols.
Ross (Prediction: #5 East): What a mess. Tons of off-season turmoil, a coaching change, a general lack of talent... just making a bowl game might be a major accomplishment for this squad and even that looks a bit unlikely. Derek Dooley may get this program on solid ground soon, but this year will be a struggle.
Chris (Prediction: #6 East): The Commodores were shocked when long time coach Bobby Johnson decided to retire just before the start of the season. While expectations were tempered at best, Johnson was a better option for this team, especially with only two months remaining before the season. That's Lane Kiffin-esque! The Volunteer state has just really suffered this off-season, and don't expect Vandy's regular season prognosis to look any better. They will lose this division...handily.
J Martin (Prediction: #6 East): What can you say about Vandy? Bobby Johnson did a respectable job here, but probably got more credit than he deserved. He never really capitalized on the 08 bowl season on the recruiting trail, and Vanderbilt today is in much the same place it was when he got there.
Kevin (Prediction: #6 East): If Herban Meyer or Osama bin Saban or the Yellow Bellied Bobby Petrino did what Bobby Johnson did this year they would have absolutely been lit up by the media and made into public enemy number one. Why did Bobby Johnson wait so long to announce he was retiring? It's simple, to keep his recruiting class in tact. Also, by waiting so long he handicapped the administration in finding a new coach (although I don't exactly think they are lining up to coach Vandy). Vandy has some talent (Warren Norman and Chris Marve come to mind) but they aren't ready to contend this year with their version of Bill Stewart and Ray Goff as coach.
Ross (Prediction: #6 East): Losing your coach days before fall practice starts? Yeah, that's a bad sign and hurts a Vandy team that's already low in talent. They might be able to rally around the new boss for a win or two, but this is gonna be a long, ugly season in Commodore-ville.
CFBZ PROJECTED 2010 SEC FINISH
East
1. Florida Gators
2. Georgia Bulldogs
3. South Carolina Gamecocks
4. Kentucky Wildcats
5. Tennessee Volunteers
6. Vanderbilt Commodores
West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Auburn Tigers
3. Arkansas Razorbacks
4. LSU Tigers
5. Ole Miss Rebels
6. Mississippi State Bulldogs
SEC Championship Game: Alabama over Florida
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