There is a 4-way log jam at the top of the Big Ten. Who is the best team?
Alex: Even after tanking against Iowa, Michigan State has a chance to slip into the Rose Bowl. Iowa/Ohio State is the toughest game any of these teams have to face, with Michigan State/Penn State a close second. If Michigan State were to blow the game Wisconsin is Pasadena bound. However to answer the question I still feel Iowa is the best team in the Big 10 in the slimmest of margins over Wisconsin.
J Martin: My instinct is to say Ohio State is still the "best" team by virtue of having the most talent of anybody in the conference. However, they lost convincingly to by far the best team they've played and haven't been challenged otherwise, so I feel like I don't really know this team as well as the others. Conversely, there's a fair amount of empirical evidence supporting Wisconsin as the best of the bunch. They thumped OSU at home, then went on the road and edged out Iowa on the road in consecutive weeks. That's awfully impressive.
Kevin: I've got Wisconsin. They lost to Michigan State but since then they have beat Ohio State and Iowa. Ohio State hasn't beaten anybody and Iowa has 2 losses. If Iowa routes Ohio State I might be persuaded to change my opinion.
Ross: TBD until after the Iowa-Ohio State game, but right now it's either Iowa or Wisconsin. Wisconsin went 2-1 against the other three teams, losing fairly badly to MSU but getting an impressive win over OSU and winning a squeaker over Iowa. Iowa has the most impressive win of the lot with their 37-6 beatdown of MSU, but they also lost that game to Wisconsin. Gun to my head right now I'd probably say Wisconsin by a hair.
RichRod is 6-3 and Ron Zook is 5-4. Will they be retained or shown the door?
Alex: I do not feel as if either coach should be shown the door. They have beaten the teams they should have, and lost to the upper echelon of the Big 10. I have never felt that either team was ready to break out of the middle tier. Illinois can still be an 8-win team as it has a better defense and no offensive juggernauts left in the schedule. Giving Michigan 65 points was just an anomaly, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Fresno State will not touch that figure. Michigan is looking at a 7 or 8 win season. Wisconsin is a loss, Purdue is a win and Ohio State is an unknown. Michigan is tired of getting beaten on by the Buckeyes and they might just make a big splash in the Ohio State pond, which would lock RichRod in for another season.
J Martin: I think both of those guys are going to stick around. Rodriguez probably needs to beat Purdue this weekend just to be sure, but he's at least done the minimum amount necessary to keep his job. Plus, he's got Denard coming back, and he can sell his ability to maximize his talents as opposed to starting over with a new coach and a new offensive philosophy. Zook isn't quite there yet, but I feel pretty good about his odds of beating Minnesota and maybe even going out west and beating Fresno. They should probably just make Paul Petrino head coach, though.
Kevin: I do think they both deserve a chance to come back and build on what they have accomplished so far this year (barring a complete collapse at the end of the year).
Ross: Both will be retained. Rodriguez should win at least seven games this regular season (they ought to beat Purdue this week) and they could certainly win a bowl game for an 8th total win, depending on the match-up. It's also not completely unreasonable that they could pull off an upset of Wisconsin or Ohio State, given their incredibly explosive offense. Either way, 7-8 wins and one of the nation's best offenses should get Rodriguez another year -- provided he agrees to make some changes on defense. Zook will be retained with a few more wins -- which seems like with three more games against Minnesota, Northwestern, and Fresno State. With a bowl game, they could win nine games, which would be remarkable. As it is, a 7-5 regular season seems like a good bet -- and that's good progress after the last two disastrous seasons.
Who is the Player of the Year in the Big 10 so far?
Alex: Denard Robinson from Michigan. This will change by years end but he got Michigan off to a rocketing start which may well help Rich stay in Ann Arbor. Robinson is currently 1st in Rushing, 2nd in Total Offense, 6th in Passing and 7th in scoring. There is not one Big 10 player that can boast such numbers. The fact that he is out with an injury is what will cost him this title by years end, but there is no way to deny him the pole position as we stand in early November.
J Martin: Denard, of course. He's very impressive for a guy who's probably only logged about 6 games worth of field time.
Kevin: From a statistics stand point Denard looks very good but I have a problem picking a "Player of the Year" from a team that is 2-3 in the conference. So it's John Clay of Wisconsin. Leads the league in rushing TDs and is 2nd to only Denard in yards rushing.
Ross: It's Denard Robinson and it's not even close -- 118/186, 1814 passing yards, 13/7 TD/INT, 183 carries, 1349 rushing yards, 12 TD. And he did that despite missing time in every game this season because of injury. He's been simply sensational and the leading reason why Michigan's offense has gone from "good" to "amazing."
Where does Nebraska fit in next year? Will they be the pre-season favorite to win the Big 10?
Alex: Nebraska is going to be a middle of the pack team. I would say 4th at very best but probably around 6th. The Big 12 is not as defensive minded as the Big 10, and Nebraska is not as good now as many think they are. If they get better a solid fourth is in the future, but if they get worse a battle with Michigan or Illinois for 5th and 6th place could be in store for the Huskers. Also note that many of these transitions do not go as planned. The ACC brought Miami, BC, and Virginia Tech into the fold and the one that they WANTED to contend for the title (Miami) did not. VT and BC have had very good success since the transition. In the SEC Arkansas and South Carolina were brought in before the 92 season and neither has won a conference championship. This is not Nebraska walking into an inferior conference, and the Huskers best remember that.
J Martin: They'll be one of the two most talented teams in the conference the moment they set foot through the door. Whether they'll be the favorite to win the conference depends on if Pryor comes back to play his senior year at Ohio State. The Buckeyes with a superstar QB will always get the benefit of a doubt. But Taylor Martinez and that Pelini defense will give them a battle for it, that's for sure.
Kevin: I'm tempted to pick Nebraska first in the Big Ten out of the gate. If Roy Helu Jr wasn't a Jr I probably would. At this point I'm slotting them 2nd or 3rd but they have a legit shot at winning and contending for the Big Ten title next year.
Ross: It's hard to say without knowing exactly what Nebraska returns next year, but based on their play this year, they should be a solid contender -- but not an overwhelming favorite by any means. The schedule -- games against Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State -- will prevent that. They should probably finish in the top five of the league, though.
Who should Minnesota turn to in order to turn their program around?
Alex: You could ask me this for any struggling team in the nation and my first choice will always be Mike Leech. He has done more for the passing game than anyone in the past two or three decades. If he can bring TTech to a nationally recognized level, he can do it for any team. Other choices include Skip Holtz, and Art Briles.
J Martin: There are a lot of positives to the Minnesota job, but the program was run into the ground over the past few years. It now safely qualifies as a "rebuilding job." For this sort of rebuilding job in particular, I'd look for an up-and-coming head coach still looking to make a name for himself a the BCS level that will be willing to really hustle for the program. Someone like Kevin Sumlin from Houston or Al Golden from Temple. Both have already had their names linked and both would be good choices. The last thing you want to do is hire some tired retread head coach or roll the dice on a hotshot assistant with no head coach experience.
Kevin: From an outsiders perspective I see Minnesota as a team that is going to have a really tough time contending for the upper echelon of the Big Ten year in and year out. Because of that I would go the Georgia Tech route. Get Ken Niumatalolo of Navy (23-12). Doing this causes Minnesota to be a difficult game for everybody on their schedule once they get some kids in to run the offense. The Big Ten is having a lot of trouble trying to stop Rich Rod and Michigan just imagine what would happen if you threw in an option type offense for them to have to deal with as well.
Ross: That's tough to answer, since I don't exactly want to see Minnesota improve their fortunes. That said, assuming Minnesota can't get one of the seeming home run hires like Chris Peterson or Gary Patterson or Jim Harbaugh (and they aren't going to get a guy like that), they should focus on a guy who's really hungry to prove himself and who understands the Big Ten well. The last thing they need is a retread like Phil Fulmer or Lou Holtz. Someone like Don Treadwell (the current Michigan State offensive coordinator) might be a good fit.
Showing posts with label Michigan State Spartans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michigan State Spartans. Show all posts
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Thursday, October 28, 2010
The Six Pack Games Of The Week: October 28-30
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 27-15
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28#16 Florida State (6-1, 4-0) @ NC State (5-2, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After the 47-17 beatdown that FSU took at the hands of Oklahoma back in early September, the Seminoles quietly rebounded to rattle off five straight wins and take control of the ACC's Atlantic division, opening up a multi-game lead on NC State and Maryland. Of course, much of that winning streak came on the back of some wins over unimpressive competition; Miami was not only the lone ranked team FSU dispatched in that run, they were the only team with a winning record that FSU beat. The schedule stiffens from here on out, though; every team left on FSU's schedule is (at present) at least a game over .500 and the second through fourth-place teams in the Atlantic (NC State, Maryland, Clemson) comprise three of their next four opponents. After a promising 4-0 start, NC State stumbled by losing two of their next three games (including an upset loss to East Carolina); if they want to have realistic shot at catching FSU in the division, they need to win this game. They key to this game is what FSU defensive coordinator Mark Stoops has whipped up to slow down NC State QB Russell Wilson; if Stoops is successful, this could be a cakewalk for the 'Noles. If not, this one could be a real shootout. I'm leaning towards the former.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 34, NC STATE 20
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30Louisville (4-3, 1-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-3, 2-0) (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)Big East football? Yep, Big East football. Hey, someone has to win this league and get the automatic berth to a BCS bowl. Through two weeks, Pitt is the only Big East team undefeated in conference play -- but they have three non-conference losses, including a blowout at the hands of Miami and close road losses to Utah and Notre Dame. They may very well be the class of the Big East this year -- although that isn't necessarily saying a whole lot. Louisville's already equaled their win total from a year ago and all three of their losses have been close games against decent-ish foes (Kentucky, Oregon State, Cincinnati). Sandwiched around that most reecnt loss (Cincy) are two blowout wins (over dismal Memphis and rapidly-disintegrating UConn). Charlie Strong is getting things turned around there and a fair bit faster than many expected. That said, they probably aren't quite ready to win a game like this and genuinely contend for the Big East title just yet.
THE PICK: PITT 31, LOUISVILLE 21
#6 Missouri (7-0, 3-0) @ #14 Nebraska (6-1, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC)For three straight weeks a top-ranked team has gone down (Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma). The results after that game for the upset-pullers has been mixed; South Carolina went on the road and dropped a weird game to Kentucky, while Wisconsin went on the road to Iowa and narrowly came out with a win. Fresh off their big home win over Oklahoma, now Missouri has to go on the road to face a tough road game against a good Nebraska team. Nebraska had a wild bounce-back game against Oklahoma State a week ago, winning a 51-41 shootout (apparently the vaunted Blackshirt defense was on vacation). Now Nebraska has a chance to wrest control of the Big 12 North from Missouri, to avenge a 52-17 drubbing they suffered the last time Mizzou came to Lincoln... and to give Missouri one final eff you on their way out the door to the Big Ten. Missouri's surprising success this season has come on the back of their defense, which is quite a change from a few years ago, when they just relied on their high-powered offense to put up a ton of points on teams. Still, it's hard to avoid a letdown after such a momentous win and going on the road to play Nebraska and Lincoln is not exactly an ideal follow-up venue.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 28, MISSOURI 20
#5 Michigan State (8-0, 4-0) @ #18 Iowa (5-2, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)Every year there's a team that comes out of nowhere, rides some surprisingly strong play and good fortune to a gaudy record and national recognition. And more often than not, that team stubs their toe at some point. It's really, really hard to go undefeated in modern college football -- especially in one of the big six conferences. The weekly grind is intense, the pressure gets worse by the week, and all of your opponents start getting a little more amped to be the first squad to add a number to the loss column in your record. Teams that manage to navigate an entire season undefeated usually do so on the basis of having at least one truly elite unit (either offense or defense). The much-derided 2002 Ohio State team may have had only a patchwork offense, but they had a hellacious defense. The 2005 USC squad had a so-so defense, but one of the best offenses of the decade. And so on. After eight weeks you are what you are, and what Michigan State is is a good team -- perhaps even a very good team -- but not an elite one. Their defense is good, but not lockdown great. Their offense is good, but occasionally inconsistent. They've gotten exceptional special teams play and that can carry you a long way, but it's also not always a reliable means of scoring points. At least, this is what I tell myself as Sparty gets ready to play an Iowa team working with a make-shift LB corps and prone to some of the ugliest special teams breakdowns I've seen in the last decade of Iowa football. Iowa's back is against the wall -- a loss here and their high hopes for this season are officially toast -- and in spite of their now-obvious flaws, they do still have a very good defensive line (and the Spartan offensive line isn't the elite wall that the Wisco line was a week ago) and a surprisingly potent offense. They have the tools to win this game. At least, that's what I'm telling myself.
THE PICK: IOWA 28, MICHIGAN STATE 24
Florida (4-3, 2-3) @ Georgia (4-4, 3-3) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Prior to last week's much needed bye week, Florida was mired in by far the worst three-game skid of Urban Meyer's Florida tenure; they'd lost three in a row (including a home to loss to, of all teams, Mississippi State) and been held under ten points in two of those losses. The Florida offense has been a FEMA-worthy disaster area all season, but it reached new lows in the embarrassing 7-point effort against Mississippi State. So has a week off been enough to work out the kinks and get them back to a level of, if not good quality, then perhaps just passable quality? To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Tim Tebow isn't walking through that door. Neither is Percy Harvin. The Florida offense remains an oddball collection of players who are very inconsistent (most of the receivers and running backs), just not that good (Emmanuel Moody), or a bad fit for the offense trying to be run (John Brantley). Oh, and they're still coached by Steve Adazzio, who looks increasingly overmatched in his OC position. On the other hand, Georgia has rebounded from their disastrous 1-4 start to rattle off three straight wins and improbably give them a shot at winning the SEC East. They've scored 40+ in all three games; clearly getting AJ Green back from his suspension and the continued development of Washaun Early and Aaron Murray has done wonders for them. That said, the Florida defense has been pretty good this year -- outside two 30+ point efforts conceded to Alabama and LSU, they've held every other foe to 17 points or less. And there is the little matter of Florida absolutely, positively owning Georgia -- they're 17-3 in the last twenty meetings. And they've had a bye week to sort things out and prepare for Georgia. But still... it's hard to completely overlook a half-season's worth of futility. If Georgia can't beat this Florida team, when will they ever beat Florida?
THE PICK: GEORGIA 27, FLORIDA 17
#2 Oregon (7-0, 4-0) @ USC (5-2, 2-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC)A year ago, Oregon's 47-20 destruction of USC served as a clear statement that the era of USC dominance in the Pac-10 was over. A year later, Oregon's now the team with the target on its back and the team with conference and national title ambitions. With two conference losses already (and the sanctions that prevent them from going to a bowl anyway), USC's been reduced to the unfamiliar role of spoiler -- but it's also a role they seem to have embraced (at least against a foe like Oregon). Oregon's coming off yet another lopsided destruction, a 60-13 evisceration of UCLA. USC's coming off a bye and a 48-14 dismantling of Cal that was undoubtedly their best win of the season. Will two weeks of prep time enable USC to engineer a defensive gameplan that allows them to stop Oregon's ridiculously powerful offense? Doubtful. USC's best bet is to take advantage of their own potent offense (Matt Barkley, Robert Woods, Ronald Johnson, and Allen Bradford are all on a roll right now) and hope to get enough turnovers or stops to win a shootout. Winning a shootout against Oregon is easier said than done, though.
THE PICK: OREGON 42, USC 34
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 27-15
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28#16 Florida State (6-1, 4-0) @ NC State (5-2, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After the 47-17 beatdown that FSU took at the hands of Oklahoma back in early September, the Seminoles quietly rebounded to rattle off five straight wins and take control of the ACC's Atlantic division, opening up a multi-game lead on NC State and Maryland. Of course, much of that winning streak came on the back of some wins over unimpressive competition; Miami was not only the lone ranked team FSU dispatched in that run, they were the only team with a winning record that FSU beat. The schedule stiffens from here on out, though; every team left on FSU's schedule is (at present) at least a game over .500 and the second through fourth-place teams in the Atlantic (NC State, Maryland, Clemson) comprise three of their next four opponents. After a promising 4-0 start, NC State stumbled by losing two of their next three games (including an upset loss to East Carolina); if they want to have realistic shot at catching FSU in the division, they need to win this game. They key to this game is what FSU defensive coordinator Mark Stoops has whipped up to slow down NC State QB Russell Wilson; if Stoops is successful, this could be a cakewalk for the 'Noles. If not, this one could be a real shootout. I'm leaning towards the former.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 34, NC STATE 20
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30Louisville (4-3, 1-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-3, 2-0) (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)Big East football? Yep, Big East football. Hey, someone has to win this league and get the automatic berth to a BCS bowl. Through two weeks, Pitt is the only Big East team undefeated in conference play -- but they have three non-conference losses, including a blowout at the hands of Miami and close road losses to Utah and Notre Dame. They may very well be the class of the Big East this year -- although that isn't necessarily saying a whole lot. Louisville's already equaled their win total from a year ago and all three of their losses have been close games against decent-ish foes (Kentucky, Oregon State, Cincinnati). Sandwiched around that most reecnt loss (Cincy) are two blowout wins (over dismal Memphis and rapidly-disintegrating UConn). Charlie Strong is getting things turned around there and a fair bit faster than many expected. That said, they probably aren't quite ready to win a game like this and genuinely contend for the Big East title just yet.
THE PICK: PITT 31, LOUISVILLE 21
#6 Missouri (7-0, 3-0) @ #14 Nebraska (6-1, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC)For three straight weeks a top-ranked team has gone down (Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma). The results after that game for the upset-pullers has been mixed; South Carolina went on the road and dropped a weird game to Kentucky, while Wisconsin went on the road to Iowa and narrowly came out with a win. Fresh off their big home win over Oklahoma, now Missouri has to go on the road to face a tough road game against a good Nebraska team. Nebraska had a wild bounce-back game against Oklahoma State a week ago, winning a 51-41 shootout (apparently the vaunted Blackshirt defense was on vacation). Now Nebraska has a chance to wrest control of the Big 12 North from Missouri, to avenge a 52-17 drubbing they suffered the last time Mizzou came to Lincoln... and to give Missouri one final eff you on their way out the door to the Big Ten. Missouri's surprising success this season has come on the back of their defense, which is quite a change from a few years ago, when they just relied on their high-powered offense to put up a ton of points on teams. Still, it's hard to avoid a letdown after such a momentous win and going on the road to play Nebraska and Lincoln is not exactly an ideal follow-up venue.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 28, MISSOURI 20
#5 Michigan State (8-0, 4-0) @ #18 Iowa (5-2, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)Every year there's a team that comes out of nowhere, rides some surprisingly strong play and good fortune to a gaudy record and national recognition. And more often than not, that team stubs their toe at some point. It's really, really hard to go undefeated in modern college football -- especially in one of the big six conferences. The weekly grind is intense, the pressure gets worse by the week, and all of your opponents start getting a little more amped to be the first squad to add a number to the loss column in your record. Teams that manage to navigate an entire season undefeated usually do so on the basis of having at least one truly elite unit (either offense or defense). The much-derided 2002 Ohio State team may have had only a patchwork offense, but they had a hellacious defense. The 2005 USC squad had a so-so defense, but one of the best offenses of the decade. And so on. After eight weeks you are what you are, and what Michigan State is is a good team -- perhaps even a very good team -- but not an elite one. Their defense is good, but not lockdown great. Their offense is good, but occasionally inconsistent. They've gotten exceptional special teams play and that can carry you a long way, but it's also not always a reliable means of scoring points. At least, this is what I tell myself as Sparty gets ready to play an Iowa team working with a make-shift LB corps and prone to some of the ugliest special teams breakdowns I've seen in the last decade of Iowa football. Iowa's back is against the wall -- a loss here and their high hopes for this season are officially toast -- and in spite of their now-obvious flaws, they do still have a very good defensive line (and the Spartan offensive line isn't the elite wall that the Wisco line was a week ago) and a surprisingly potent offense. They have the tools to win this game. At least, that's what I'm telling myself.
THE PICK: IOWA 28, MICHIGAN STATE 24
Florida (4-3, 2-3) @ Georgia (4-4, 3-3) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Prior to last week's much needed bye week, Florida was mired in by far the worst three-game skid of Urban Meyer's Florida tenure; they'd lost three in a row (including a home to loss to, of all teams, Mississippi State) and been held under ten points in two of those losses. The Florida offense has been a FEMA-worthy disaster area all season, but it reached new lows in the embarrassing 7-point effort against Mississippi State. So has a week off been enough to work out the kinks and get them back to a level of, if not good quality, then perhaps just passable quality? To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Tim Tebow isn't walking through that door. Neither is Percy Harvin. The Florida offense remains an oddball collection of players who are very inconsistent (most of the receivers and running backs), just not that good (Emmanuel Moody), or a bad fit for the offense trying to be run (John Brantley). Oh, and they're still coached by Steve Adazzio, who looks increasingly overmatched in his OC position. On the other hand, Georgia has rebounded from their disastrous 1-4 start to rattle off three straight wins and improbably give them a shot at winning the SEC East. They've scored 40+ in all three games; clearly getting AJ Green back from his suspension and the continued development of Washaun Early and Aaron Murray has done wonders for them. That said, the Florida defense has been pretty good this year -- outside two 30+ point efforts conceded to Alabama and LSU, they've held every other foe to 17 points or less. And there is the little matter of Florida absolutely, positively owning Georgia -- they're 17-3 in the last twenty meetings. And they've had a bye week to sort things out and prepare for Georgia. But still... it's hard to completely overlook a half-season's worth of futility. If Georgia can't beat this Florida team, when will they ever beat Florida?
THE PICK: GEORGIA 27, FLORIDA 17
#2 Oregon (7-0, 4-0) @ USC (5-2, 2-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC)A year ago, Oregon's 47-20 destruction of USC served as a clear statement that the era of USC dominance in the Pac-10 was over. A year later, Oregon's now the team with the target on its back and the team with conference and national title ambitions. With two conference losses already (and the sanctions that prevent them from going to a bowl anyway), USC's been reduced to the unfamiliar role of spoiler -- but it's also a role they seem to have embraced (at least against a foe like Oregon). Oregon's coming off yet another lopsided destruction, a 60-13 evisceration of UCLA. USC's coming off a bye and a 48-14 dismantling of Cal that was undoubtedly their best win of the season. Will two weeks of prep time enable USC to engineer a defensive gameplan that allows them to stop Oregon's ridiculously powerful offense? Doubtful. USC's best bet is to take advantage of their own potent offense (Matt Barkley, Robert Woods, Ronald Johnson, and Allen Bradford are all on a roll right now) and hope to get enough turnovers or stops to win a shootout. Winning a shootout against Oregon is easier said than done, though.
THE PICK: OREGON 42, USC 34
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Three Intriguing Match-Ups This Week
On Wednesday Ross posted his "Six Pack Games of the Week" previewing and predicted the six best games of the week. Looking at the schedule I can't help but feel that this week deserves a look a little bit deeper and here are 3 more match-ups out there in college football land to keep an eye on this week.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 Georgia (3-4, 2-3) AT Kentucky (4-3, 1-3) (7:00pm EST, CSS, ESPN 3) At first look this might not look like an interesting match-up but I feel it's the most intriguing match-up in the SEC this week other than LSU/Auburn. Kentucky is coming off of a win at South Carolina and Georgia is trying to resurrect it's season after blowout wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. This game is about one of these teams coming out of this game as a legit contender to the SEC East crown. This morning on Gameday both Kirk Herbstreit and Desmond Howard tabbed Georgia as the team that would come out of the pack of the SEC East and travel to Atlanta for the SEC East. I really need to know what they have been drinking. It's possible that Georgia can win the SEC East but there are so many things that have to happen (including Georgia beating Florida and Auburn). Now, onto the game....Georgia has throttled it's last two opponents. But they were Tennessee and Vandy and both were at home. Georgia has not won a game on the road this year (usually a trademark under Mark Richt). Kentucky comes into the game riding high after a home victory over South Carolina. Will the Kentucky team that beat the Gamecocks and came within 3 of beating Auburn show up or will we see the team that got dismantled by Florida 48-14 and lost to Ole Miss. I expect this to either be a blow-out win by Georgia (not likely but in the 3 games they've won they've won by an avg of 39 points) or a game that comes down to who has the ball last (Georgia's 4 losses have come by an avg of 8 points). Derrick Locke will not play for Kentucky so it's up to Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb against Todd Grantham and the Georgia defense.
THE PICK: Georgia 38 Kentucky 31
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 Georgia Tech (5-2, 3-1) AT Clemson (3-2, 1-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN) Georgia Tech has posted a 5-2 record by basically picking off teams that aren't very good (South Carolina State, Virginia, Wake Forest and Middle Tennessee are among their victims). That being said, Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech are very dangerous and this game is a critical game for both teams in the ACC. It's critical for Tech to win to have a shot at winning the Coastal with Virginia Tech and Miami coming up in the next two weeks and it's important for Clemson to win because they cannot afford another loss as FSU prepares to defend their spot on the top of the Atlantic division. This should be fun as it's a border-war and a must-win game for both teams. Expect to see a lot of offense. Georgia Tech has to be kicking themselves for losing to Kansas as they would be 6-1 and in the Top 20 if they had not have lost that game.
THE PICK: Georgia Tech 31 Clemson 27
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 #7 Michigan State (7-0, 3-0) AT Northwestern (5-1, 1-1) (12:00pm EST, ESPN) Michigan State is one of the pleasant surprises in college football this year. The play of the year might be the fake field goal to beat Notre Dame. The win over Wisconsin in Week 5 looks even bigger now that the Badgers have moved on to topple Ohio State. Northwestern has had two weeks to think about their 3 point loss to Purdue. I'm tempted to pick Northwestern but after looking at who they've beat I just can't bring myself to do it (Minnesota by 1, Central Michigan by 5, Vandy by 2, Rice and Illinois State). The Spartans move on and face Iowa next week in the huge Big 10 Showdown.
THE PICK: Michigan State 31 Northwestern 21
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 Georgia (3-4, 2-3) AT Kentucky (4-3, 1-3) (7:00pm EST, CSS, ESPN 3) At first look this might not look like an interesting match-up but I feel it's the most intriguing match-up in the SEC this week other than LSU/Auburn. Kentucky is coming off of a win at South Carolina and Georgia is trying to resurrect it's season after blowout wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. This game is about one of these teams coming out of this game as a legit contender to the SEC East crown. This morning on Gameday both Kirk Herbstreit and Desmond Howard tabbed Georgia as the team that would come out of the pack of the SEC East and travel to Atlanta for the SEC East. I really need to know what they have been drinking. It's possible that Georgia can win the SEC East but there are so many things that have to happen (including Georgia beating Florida and Auburn). Now, onto the game....Georgia has throttled it's last two opponents. But they were Tennessee and Vandy and both were at home. Georgia has not won a game on the road this year (usually a trademark under Mark Richt). Kentucky comes into the game riding high after a home victory over South Carolina. Will the Kentucky team that beat the Gamecocks and came within 3 of beating Auburn show up or will we see the team that got dismantled by Florida 48-14 and lost to Ole Miss. I expect this to either be a blow-out win by Georgia (not likely but in the 3 games they've won they've won by an avg of 39 points) or a game that comes down to who has the ball last (Georgia's 4 losses have come by an avg of 8 points). Derrick Locke will not play for Kentucky so it's up to Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb against Todd Grantham and the Georgia defense.
THE PICK: Georgia 38 Kentucky 31
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 Georgia Tech (5-2, 3-1) AT Clemson (3-2, 1-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN) Georgia Tech has posted a 5-2 record by basically picking off teams that aren't very good (South Carolina State, Virginia, Wake Forest and Middle Tennessee are among their victims). That being said, Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech are very dangerous and this game is a critical game for both teams in the ACC. It's critical for Tech to win to have a shot at winning the Coastal with Virginia Tech and Miami coming up in the next two weeks and it's important for Clemson to win because they cannot afford another loss as FSU prepares to defend their spot on the top of the Atlantic division. This should be fun as it's a border-war and a must-win game for both teams. Expect to see a lot of offense. Georgia Tech has to be kicking themselves for losing to Kansas as they would be 6-1 and in the Top 20 if they had not have lost that game.
THE PICK: Georgia Tech 31 Clemson 27
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23 #7 Michigan State (7-0, 3-0) AT Northwestern (5-1, 1-1) (12:00pm EST, ESPN) Michigan State is one of the pleasant surprises in college football this year. The play of the year might be the fake field goal to beat Notre Dame. The win over Wisconsin in Week 5 looks even bigger now that the Badgers have moved on to topple Ohio State. Northwestern has had two weeks to think about their 3 point loss to Purdue. I'm tempted to pick Northwestern but after looking at who they've beat I just can't bring myself to do it (Minnesota by 1, Central Michigan by 5, Vandy by 2, Rice and Illinois State). The Spartans move on and face Iowa next week in the huge Big 10 Showdown.
THE PICK: Michigan State 31 Northwestern 21
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 7-9
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL 20-10
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2010
#7 Nebraska (4-0, 0-0) @ Kansas State (4-0, 1-0) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Two straight Big 12 games on Thursday night? Poor Big East; it’s not bad enough that their league is dreadful this year and can barely beat anyone outside of FCS schools – now they’re even being edged out of their traditional Thursday night showcase game. Last week’s Thursday night Big 12 game between Oklahoma State and Texas A&M turned into a wild shootout; don’t expect aerial pyrotechnics like that this week. Kansas State and Nebraska both want to grind things out on the ground. K-State features one of the nation’s best backs in Daniel Thomas, going for 157 ypg, while Nebraska counters with a hydra-like attack featuring Roy Helu (76 ypg), Rex Burkhead (76ypg), and red-hot freshman QB Taylor “T-Magic” Martinez (116ypg). There are reasons to like Kansas State – they’ve had an extra week to prepare for the Huskers, they’re at home, Nebraska struggled with South Dakota State in their last game – but probably not enough to actually pick them to win this game against a top ten-ranked Nebraska team with a salty defense. This game should go a long way in determining who wins the Big 12 North.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 24, KANSAS STATE 14
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2010
#1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0) @ #19 South Carolina (3-1, 1-1) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
Another week, another big Alabama game. Ho-hum. After needing some late-game heroics (and a Ryan Mallett meltdown) to sneak out a road win over Arkansas, Bama rebounded to throttle Florida at home last week. Now they face the third leg of their three-week gauntlet against top 20 teams, a road game against a South Carolina team that’s had two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide. The question is: will that matter? The good news for USCeast is that they’ll have a few things in their favor that Florida didn’t – a much more consistent and coherent offensive identity, homefield advantage, two weeks of preparation, and a Bama team that may be a bit beaten down from their exertions over the past two weeks. The bad news is that Bama’s also been getting better, game by game, especially on defense. The Tide’s biggest weakness is/was their pass defense, which Mallett shredded (until the end, at least), but USCeast is ill-suited to exploit that advantage with the inconsistent Stephen Garcia flinging the ball. Alabama’s reaching “pick against them at your peril” status right now, much like USC in 2003-2005 or Miami in 2000-2002. I’m not going to buck that trend this week. On the other hand, given Florida’s obvious issues this season, this game may be a prelude to a USCeast-Bama rematch in the SEC title game. Of course, my pick in that game will probably be the same as my pick in this game…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 27, SOUTH CAROLINA 20
#17 Michigan State (5-0, 1-0) @ #18 Michigan (5-0, 1-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)
This year's Battle of Michigan could be the best installment in a while -- and that's saying something when six of the past seven encounters have been decided by a touchdown or less. But both teams enter this game on a high, as undefeated 5-0 squads with potent offenses. Michigan has, of course, been The Denard Robinson Show all season -- but lordy, lordy what a freaking show it's been. Robinson's been an absolute magician to watch thus far, slicing through defenses on the ground (and through the air) and producing a bushel of jaw-dropping highlight reel plays every week. On the other hand, Michigan hasn't exactly been playing a murderer's row of defenses thus far -- and while Michigan State has some issues on defense (particularly in the secondary), they do have some legit all-conference talent in their ranks and the going should be a bit tougher against the likes of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon. Not to mention that Michigan State has some of the most savage big-hitters in the league on defense; Denard Robinson has already proven to be a bit fragile (he's missed at least a few plays in every game this season), so Michigan could be in serious trouble if Sparty is able to bludgeon him a few times and put him out of commission. On the offensive side of the ball, Sparty has been one of the most balanced teams in the nation, with an explosive pair of running backs in Edwin Baker (75-536-5), and Le'Veon Bell (64-471-7) and (in the last two weeks) a resurgent passing offense under Kirk Cousins (81/120, 1132 yards, 9/4 TD/INT). MSU's best defense against The Fightin' Denards may be to simply deny him the ball and with an offense like that (and against a defense as porous as Michigan's), they may be able to do just that. It's hard to bet against Robinson pulling yet another phenomenal spectacle out of his bag of tricks, but Sparty really does seem well-suited to pull the curtains on The Denard Show for a week.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, MICHIGAN 31
#12 LSU (5-0, 3-0) @ #14 Florida (4-1, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
This game should be a fascinating one to watch, especially if you like watching bad football. Between Les Miles’ chronic clock management blunders, the continuing incompetence of the LSU offense, and Florida’s own incompetence on offense, this one should be an uglyball masterpiece. If you like dropped passes, turnovers, and tackles for loss, make this your game of the weekend because it’s probably going to set offensive football back a few decades. Florida has the benefit of homefield, but LSU may have the better defense (they certainly have the best defensive player on the field in CB Patrick Peterson, a complete stud). You wouldn’t think that Les Miles’ perverse luck could continue, but sometimes you just have to ride a crazy hand and see where it takes you. Florida has provided little reason to have faith in them, either.
THE PICK: LSU 13, FLORIDA 9
#23 Florida State (4-1, 2-0) @ #13 Miami (3-1, 1-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
The ACC’s marquee rivalry is renewed once again, this time with both teams ranked, something of a rarity in the recent days of this rivalry. Both teams have highly touted quarterbacks in Christian Ponder (FSU) and Jacory Harris (Miami), but neither guy has been too spectacular thus far this season (Ponder: 78/129, 844 yards, 8/3 TD/INT; Harris: 68/119, 895 yards, 10/8 TD/INT). Both teams also suffered humbling road defeats in big-time non-conference showdowns (FSU got thrashed by Oklahoma, while Miami was beaten down by Ohio State). Miami made a big statement by going on the road and annihilating Pitt on Thursday night a few weeks ago, while Florida State has quietly been beating up on the usual ACC dregs (Wake Forest, Virginia) the past few weeks. These look like two evenly-matched squads on the offensive side of the ball -- but Miami appears to have a significant advantage on defense. That would be reason enough to pick them -- if not for the fact that Harris is an enormous wildcard in this matchup. Harris has thrown eight interceptions already this season, the fifth-worst total in the nation -- and it's even worse when you consider that the guys who have thrown as many or more interceptions have also thrown 50-85 more passes than Harris. He's throwing an interception every 15 passes -- which is not good. If he does that against FSU, Miami may suffer. If he can protect the ball, their defense should be able to slow down Florida State enough for Miami to prevail. Against my better judgment, I'll bet on that to happen.
THE PICK: MIAMI 24, FLORIDA STATE 20
USC (4-1, 1-1) @ #16 Stanford (4-1, 1-1) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
A year ago, Stanford's destruction of USC ranked as one of the most shocking results of the season (well, at least until we found out that USC was no longer the USC of old). Now, it's practically expected -- oh, how things can change dramatically in the span of a year. Despite opening the year 4-0 USC looked just as shaky as they were a year ago -- and their upset loss to Washington last week did nothing to alter those concerns. After cruising through the early part of the year, Stanford opened up an early lead on Oregon a week ago... and then watched the bottom drop out as the quick-strike Oregon offense exploded. But Oregon is going to do that to a ton of teams this year and USC is better matchup for Stanford than Oregon, frankly. USC still has some better talent at a few positions (WR, RB, maybe DL), but Stanford has the advantage at QB -- and is there anyone who wouldn't trust Harbaugh to coach circles around Kiffin at this point?
THE PICK: STANFORD 35, USC 27
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL 20-10
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2010
#7 Nebraska (4-0, 0-0) @ Kansas State (4-0, 1-0) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Two straight Big 12 games on Thursday night? Poor Big East; it’s not bad enough that their league is dreadful this year and can barely beat anyone outside of FCS schools – now they’re even being edged out of their traditional Thursday night showcase game. Last week’s Thursday night Big 12 game between Oklahoma State and Texas A&M turned into a wild shootout; don’t expect aerial pyrotechnics like that this week. Kansas State and Nebraska both want to grind things out on the ground. K-State features one of the nation’s best backs in Daniel Thomas, going for 157 ypg, while Nebraska counters with a hydra-like attack featuring Roy Helu (76 ypg), Rex Burkhead (76ypg), and red-hot freshman QB Taylor “T-Magic” Martinez (116ypg). There are reasons to like Kansas State – they’ve had an extra week to prepare for the Huskers, they’re at home, Nebraska struggled with South Dakota State in their last game – but probably not enough to actually pick them to win this game against a top ten-ranked Nebraska team with a salty defense. This game should go a long way in determining who wins the Big 12 North.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 24, KANSAS STATE 14
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2010
#1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0) @ #19 South Carolina (3-1, 1-1) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
Another week, another big Alabama game. Ho-hum. After needing some late-game heroics (and a Ryan Mallett meltdown) to sneak out a road win over Arkansas, Bama rebounded to throttle Florida at home last week. Now they face the third leg of their three-week gauntlet against top 20 teams, a road game against a South Carolina team that’s had two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide. The question is: will that matter? The good news for USCeast is that they’ll have a few things in their favor that Florida didn’t – a much more consistent and coherent offensive identity, homefield advantage, two weeks of preparation, and a Bama team that may be a bit beaten down from their exertions over the past two weeks. The bad news is that Bama’s also been getting better, game by game, especially on defense. The Tide’s biggest weakness is/was their pass defense, which Mallett shredded (until the end, at least), but USCeast is ill-suited to exploit that advantage with the inconsistent Stephen Garcia flinging the ball. Alabama’s reaching “pick against them at your peril” status right now, much like USC in 2003-2005 or Miami in 2000-2002. I’m not going to buck that trend this week. On the other hand, given Florida’s obvious issues this season, this game may be a prelude to a USCeast-Bama rematch in the SEC title game. Of course, my pick in that game will probably be the same as my pick in this game…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 27, SOUTH CAROLINA 20
#17 Michigan State (5-0, 1-0) @ #18 Michigan (5-0, 1-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)
This year's Battle of Michigan could be the best installment in a while -- and that's saying something when six of the past seven encounters have been decided by a touchdown or less. But both teams enter this game on a high, as undefeated 5-0 squads with potent offenses. Michigan has, of course, been The Denard Robinson Show all season -- but lordy, lordy what a freaking show it's been. Robinson's been an absolute magician to watch thus far, slicing through defenses on the ground (and through the air) and producing a bushel of jaw-dropping highlight reel plays every week. On the other hand, Michigan hasn't exactly been playing a murderer's row of defenses thus far -- and while Michigan State has some issues on defense (particularly in the secondary), they do have some legit all-conference talent in their ranks and the going should be a bit tougher against the likes of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon. Not to mention that Michigan State has some of the most savage big-hitters in the league on defense; Denard Robinson has already proven to be a bit fragile (he's missed at least a few plays in every game this season), so Michigan could be in serious trouble if Sparty is able to bludgeon him a few times and put him out of commission. On the offensive side of the ball, Sparty has been one of the most balanced teams in the nation, with an explosive pair of running backs in Edwin Baker (75-536-5), and Le'Veon Bell (64-471-7) and (in the last two weeks) a resurgent passing offense under Kirk Cousins (81/120, 1132 yards, 9/4 TD/INT). MSU's best defense against The Fightin' Denards may be to simply deny him the ball and with an offense like that (and against a defense as porous as Michigan's), they may be able to do just that. It's hard to bet against Robinson pulling yet another phenomenal spectacle out of his bag of tricks, but Sparty really does seem well-suited to pull the curtains on The Denard Show for a week.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, MICHIGAN 31
#12 LSU (5-0, 3-0) @ #14 Florida (4-1, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
This game should be a fascinating one to watch, especially if you like watching bad football. Between Les Miles’ chronic clock management blunders, the continuing incompetence of the LSU offense, and Florida’s own incompetence on offense, this one should be an uglyball masterpiece. If you like dropped passes, turnovers, and tackles for loss, make this your game of the weekend because it’s probably going to set offensive football back a few decades. Florida has the benefit of homefield, but LSU may have the better defense (they certainly have the best defensive player on the field in CB Patrick Peterson, a complete stud). You wouldn’t think that Les Miles’ perverse luck could continue, but sometimes you just have to ride a crazy hand and see where it takes you. Florida has provided little reason to have faith in them, either.
THE PICK: LSU 13, FLORIDA 9
#23 Florida State (4-1, 2-0) @ #13 Miami (3-1, 1-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
The ACC’s marquee rivalry is renewed once again, this time with both teams ranked, something of a rarity in the recent days of this rivalry. Both teams have highly touted quarterbacks in Christian Ponder (FSU) and Jacory Harris (Miami), but neither guy has been too spectacular thus far this season (Ponder: 78/129, 844 yards, 8/3 TD/INT; Harris: 68/119, 895 yards, 10/8 TD/INT). Both teams also suffered humbling road defeats in big-time non-conference showdowns (FSU got thrashed by Oklahoma, while Miami was beaten down by Ohio State). Miami made a big statement by going on the road and annihilating Pitt on Thursday night a few weeks ago, while Florida State has quietly been beating up on the usual ACC dregs (Wake Forest, Virginia) the past few weeks. These look like two evenly-matched squads on the offensive side of the ball -- but Miami appears to have a significant advantage on defense. That would be reason enough to pick them -- if not for the fact that Harris is an enormous wildcard in this matchup. Harris has thrown eight interceptions already this season, the fifth-worst total in the nation -- and it's even worse when you consider that the guys who have thrown as many or more interceptions have also thrown 50-85 more passes than Harris. He's throwing an interception every 15 passes -- which is not good. If he does that against FSU, Miami may suffer. If he can protect the ball, their defense should be able to slow down Florida State enough for Miami to prevail. Against my better judgment, I'll bet on that to happen.
THE PICK: MIAMI 24, FLORIDA STATE 20
USC (4-1, 1-1) @ #16 Stanford (4-1, 1-1) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
A year ago, Stanford's destruction of USC ranked as one of the most shocking results of the season (well, at least until we found out that USC was no longer the USC of old). Now, it's practically expected -- oh, how things can change dramatically in the span of a year. Despite opening the year 4-0 USC looked just as shaky as they were a year ago -- and their upset loss to Washington last week did nothing to alter those concerns. After cruising through the early part of the year, Stanford opened up an early lead on Oregon a week ago... and then watched the bottom drop out as the quick-strike Oregon offense exploded. But Oregon is going to do that to a ton of teams this year and USC is better matchup for Stanford than Oregon, frankly. USC still has some better talent at a few positions (WR, RB, maybe DL), but Stanford has the advantage at QB -- and is there anyone who wouldn't trust Harbaugh to coach circles around Kiffin at this point?
THE PICK: STANFORD 35, USC 27
Monday, August 23, 2010
Big Ten Preview
2009 Standings
Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 (7-1)
Iowa Hawkeyes 11-2 (6-2)
Penn State Nittany Lions 11-2 (6-2)
Wisconsin Badgers 10-3 (5-3)
Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 (5-3)
Michigan State Spartans 6-7 (4-4)
Purdue Boilermakers 5-7 (4-4)
Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 (3-5)
Illinois Fighting Illini 3-9 (2-6)
Michigan Wolverines 5-7 (1-7)
Indiana Hoosiers 4-8 (1-7)
Returning Leaders: Passing
Ben Chappell, Indiana, Sr (268 of 428 for 2942 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin, Sr (211 of 328 for 2705 yds, 16 TD, 11 INT)
Kirk Cousins, Mich St, Jr (198 of 328 for 2680 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Adam Weber, Minnesota, Sr (191 of 267 for 2582 yds, 13 TD, 15 INT)
Ricky Stanzi, Iowa, Sr (171 of 304 for 2417 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
John Clay, Wisconsin, Jr (287 carries for 1517 yds, 18 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Evan Royster, Penn State, Sr (205 carries for 1169 yds, 6 TD, 5.7 ypc)
Ralph Bolden, Purdue, Jr (200 carries for 935 yds, 9 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Adam Robinson, Iowa, Soph (181 carries for 834 yds, 5 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Terrelle Pryor, Ohio St, Jr (162 carries for 779 yds, 7 TD, 4.8 ypc)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Keith Smith, Purdue, Sr (91 rec for 1100 yds, 6 TD, 7.6 rec/game)
Tandon Doss, Indiana, Jr (77 rec for 962 yds, 5 TD, 6.4 rec/game)
Damarlo Belcher, Indiana, Jr (61 rec for 770 yds, 5 TD, 5.1 rec/game)
DeVier Posey, Ohio St, Jr (60 rec for 828 yds, 8 TD, 4.6 rec/game)
Nick Toon, Wisconsin, Jr (54 rec for 805 yds, 4 TD, 4.2 rec/game)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (154 total, 11.8 tackles/game)
Ross Homan, Ohio St, Sr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Ian Thomas, Indiana, Jr, LB (95 total, 7.9 tackles/game)
Brian Rolle, Ohio St, Sr, LB (94 total, 7.2 tackles/game)
Eric Gordon, Mich St, Sr, LB (93 total, 7.1 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Adrian Clayborn, Iowa, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue, Sr, DE (11.0)
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (9.0)
Cameron Heyward, Sr, DE (6.5)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Tyler Sash, Iowa, Jr, SS (6 interceptions)
Ross Homan, Ohio State, Sr, LB (5)
Brett Greenwood, Iowa, Jr, FS (3)
Brian Peters, Northwestern, Jr, SS (3)
Kyle Theret, Minnesota, Jr, S (3)
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 10 WITH THE ZEALOTS
Illinois Fighting Illini
Chris (Prediction: #10): Bloop de bloop, de bweedley deep de deep de derk. Ron Zook is A COACH! For those of you who don't watch South Park and didn't understand the Rob Schneider joke reference, you're missing out. But the point is, Zook is a person masquerading as a coach. The only thing that we have to do now is figure out how long the act is in town. Newsflash: It's over at the end of this year. Also, I'm not even going to explain why I think the Illini will finish in 10th. It's Ron Zook isn't it? That's explanation enough.
J Martin (Prediction: #9): I never bought into the Juice Williams hype, but even I was astounded at just how badly the Illini fell on their face in 2009. I’m even more astounded that Ron Zook still has a job. I guess you can line up Illinois next to Maryland and Colorado as the schools that don’t care about football. But they’re still going to field a team this year, so I guess I’ll talk about them. It’s looking like a total reboot on the offensive side of the ball with new OC Paul Petrino needing to find a new QB, a new top receiver, and a consistent rushing attack, which they’ve lacked since Rashard Mendenhall bolted. (I really wish Daniel Dufrene had panned out, if only because my “Dufrene! Party of 6!” TD call was a big party hit.) Defensively, they’re a really underwhelming group, even though they return a fair amount of experience. Basically, it’s just a lame duck team. And they have two lower division teams on their schedule, so they’ll have to win 7 to get to a bowl. And that ain’t happening. I think everybody here will be through and waiting for the new coach by November.
Ross (Prediction: #9): The good news is that they return 3/5 of the offensive line and one of the league's most underrated running backs (Mikel LeShoure) and don't have to deal with the Juice Williams Experience anymore. On the other hand, they're on yet another new offensive coordinator and Ron Zook is still there. There are a few more faces back on defense, but really the last two years have made it crystal clear that it doesn't matter how much returning talent the Illini have; so long as Ron Zook is there, he'll find a way to screw it up. Skipping Iowa and Wisconsin on the schedule is a plus, but a three-game stretch against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State could crush their season.
Indiana Hoosiers
Chris (Prediction: #9): Indiana should improve gradually on offense as the year goes along, bringing back a lot of key pieces to the puzzle in the way of skill position players and just enough on the offensive line. As for defense...yeah, well...there's always next year.
J Martin (Prediction: #10): Indiana finished 1-7 at the bottom of the conference for the second straight season in 2009, but if just a handful of plays had gone the other way, they could have easily been 3-5 and playing in a bowl game. Because of that, they seem to have the most upward momentum of the worst programs in the conference. Unfortunately, when you’re at the level of an Indiana, progress isn’t always a straight line because you don’t have the talent on deck to pick up where the departing seniors left off. This year, Indiana will be feeling that the most on the defensive side of the ball, where they lose 9 of their top 13 contributors from last season. Not that the Hoosiers were world-beaters on D last year, but they were experienced, plucky guys who helped Indiana win the turnover battle in 7 of their 12 games (while their quarterback was busy throwing 15 interceptions). So its definitely a rebuilding year on that side of the ball. And the offense is simply not good enough to make up the difference. Their 4 patsy non-conference games should allow them to match 09’s win total, but beyond that, the going gets tough. This won’t be the year they take a step forward.
Ross (Prediction: #10): Indiana should have a very strong offense, considering they return nine starters -- everyone but a pair of linemen. QB Ben Chappell was pretty productive a year ago and he has all of his primary targets back again this year. So that's good. But an already bad defense returns only four starters and loses virtually all of its best players, too. That's a problem. They'd better get their wins early, too, since the schedule has them close with games against Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue. A year ago Indiana was good enough to hang in there for a while against Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State; they were also bad enough to choke away all those games and get destroyed, 47-7, by Indiana. Their offense might be good enough to steal a game or two in the Big Ten, but they're going to need to score a lot of points to overcome their leaky defense.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Chris (Prediction: #2): My bonehead prediction of 2009: "Iowa does not stand a chance against GT's triple option in the bowl game. They're going to get throttled." Whoops...looks like I've got some splainin' to do on that one. 1. I was wrong. 2. Did I mention I was wrong? Like WAY wrong? So yeah, my bad in my failed attempt to pick against the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz is an amazing program coach. He might not be flashy or in a league of his own, but he knows how to year in and year out put a good football team on the field. Defensively they should be among the nation's best again, returning 8 starters on that side of the ball. The concern is on offense, while returning Ricky Stanzi and some skill position guys, they have a completely revamped O-line. This team was a couple of injuries away from an undefeated season, although if you look at the first game, this team was a point away from being beaten at home by Northern Iowa too. So I'm not ready to call a team that loses so much from a sub-par offense a world-beater. The truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes...and that's why I think that Iowa will finish second to Ohio State and its arsenal of weapons on offense.
J Martin (Prediction: #2): I love this Iowa team. On defense, they look set to pick up right where they left off in 2009. Yes, they lost two very good linebackers and a good cornerback, but virtually everyone else who made a significant contribution to last year's unit is back. On offense, I expect them to be better than in 09. The offensive line doesn't look as dominant on paper, but OL's are Kirk Ferentz's specialty, so I have no doubt he'll put a quality line on the field. The main area where they need improvement is turnovers, particularly Ricky Stanzi's interceptions. If he can cut his 09 number in half, the Hawkeyes will be tough to beat. And I think he can do that. I think when presumptive running back starter Jewel Hampton went down with a preseason injury, thrusting that job into the hands of a couple of freshmen, it put the offense into a situation they weren't entirely comfortable with. Namely, it required Stanzi to make more plays than maybe he needed to at that point in his development. This year Hampton is back, and those freshmen (who didn't play half bad as the season progressed) now have a year's worth of experience under their belts. That's going to create more of a comfort zone for Stanzi and allow him to be more efficient with the football. I have this team below Ohio State right now, but just by a hair. The schedule definitely plays into their favor as they get their top 3 conference opponents at home. Iowa just needs to prove to me that they can win the lesser games consistently, like say against Northwestern, right along with the big games before I ever put them at #1.
Ross (Prediction: #2): Everything hinges on the development of the offensive line and the team's ability to stay healthy. The defense looks absolutely loaded and the offense is strong at the skill positions. But if guys start going down, there isn't a huge amount of depth at most positions. And the offensive line is still a big question mark, given that they have to work in three new starters who haven't had a lot of experience thus far. Still, if the injury gods smile upon them and the offensive line develops into a respectable outfit, this is a team built to go far. They get all of their toughest foes at home and the schedule is fairly manageable. On the other hand, their history against OSU is absolutely miserable, which makes it hard to pick them over OSU for now.
Michigan Wolverines
Chris (Prediction: #5): So Michigan started the season 5-2, and because of his stellar play everyone was lapping up the Wolverines and true freshman quarterback Tate Forcier. EHHHHHHHHH! Wrong answer. Survey says...the Wolves lost their remaining five games, and with exception of Purdue, they weren't close. So Michigan, what's up? Let's talk. For one, I have absolute faith that Forcier is a gamer and that if anyone is going to elevate that program back to where it was, it's him. The way he played as a true freshman coming into a situation that bad and with such moxie, WOW! Matt Barkley played like dog excrement compared to Forcier, especially considering that Barkley had skill position talent galore around him. Also, how long can Rich Rod and Michigan really be bad? I mean really? The guy's a winner. He may do it illegally, but he does win. The question is how will the ongoing NCAA probe affect the Maize and Blue? I think this is the year though, all things considered, that Michigan gets it right. I'm either way wrong or way right on this one. Here's to hoping I'm way right that one of college football's true traditional powerhouses comes back strong. Even Buckeyes fans want to see the rivalry game actually be somewhat competitive again!
J Martin (Prediction: #7): I’ll admit it’s really difficult for me to get a handle on Michigan this year for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t know who the quarterback is going to be. RichRod’s offense is totally dependent on who the trigger man is. In his heart of hearts, I think he wants Denard Robinson to be the QB because he’s the most dangerous runner of the two, but Forcier has shown more as a passer and doesn’t seem to be going away (unless he gets his feelings hurt and transfers, as rumored). If Forcier is the QB, Michigan is probably going to be in the .500 range, like last year, and maybe go to a bowl. If Robinson is the QB, they could go anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3. Secondly, I just don’t know how this team is going to respond to the axe hanging over Rodriguez’s neck. Are they going to rally around him and fight for a bowl, or are they going to quit and wait to start over with the new coach? Last year began under a similar cloud, and they started out inspired, but then they seemed to give up after dropping games to Michigan State and Iowa. If this year’s team doesn’t have more heart, this season could get REALLY ugly, because I think UConn has the team to show up in Ann Arbor and clean their clocks in week 1. I'm kinda on the fence, but I hate the 3-3-5 defense that Rich is bringing back, so I guess I'll be on the side of pessimism.
Ross (Prediction: #7): It seems increasingly unlikely that the Michigan defense will be able to stop a soul in 2010 (especially through the air), which means that the offense is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting to win games. Luckily, they return a pretty fair amount of talent on offense (3/5 of the OL, QB, a pair of receivers, and a tight end) and showed signs last year of evolving into the sort of high-powered offense that's been a staple of most Rodriguez-coached teams. But that defense... that defense is scary (and not in a good way), especially the secondary, which is an utter wasteland after multiple injuries and defections of highly-ranked talent. The schedule doesn't do them any favors, either; four of their final six Big Ten games are against Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.
Michigan State Spartans
Chris (Prediction: #6): My logic here? Good coach, okay team...not as good as at least four of the teams ahead of them in the Big Ten (may be faltering on my Michigan prediction already), but is definitely not as bad as the 5 teams below. Middle of the road Michigan State can knock people off, or lose to questionable teams. But in the end it all equals out and the Spartans should improve at least one game from their 6-7 season a year ago. You know they should really make some kind of rule with 6-6 bowl teams that if they lose and go 6-7 than they should have to play another 6-7 team that lost and the winner gets back to .500. The loser is disqualified from playing in a bowl the next year because there is no way a team like that should have ever played in a bowl in the first place. Who's with me?
J Martin (Prediction: #6): The Spartans suffered somewhat of a let down in 2009. Despite some turnover on offense, the defense was expected to carry the team to another 9 or 10 win season. But early in the year, the secondary completely imploded, and MSU ended up with one of the worst pass defenses in the conference. That exacerbated issues with a young offense, and the next thing you know, they’re struggling to make a bowl game. Well, the defense is slightly less experienced, with many of their losses coming in the secondary. Your first instinct might be to expect another bad year, but my opinion is that when you’re as bad as the Spartans were in 09, a bunch of fresh faces can be just what you need. I’m looking for a big rebound, led by returning senior linebacker Greg Jones. I also expect more out of the offense now that they’ve settled in on one quarterback and all those freshman running backs have had a year to mature in the system. They still won’t be ready to compete with the best in the conference, but they should return to 8-9 win form.
Ross (Prediction: #5): MSU looks a lot like Iowa on offense: lots of returning talent at the skill positions and a lot of question marks along the offensive line. QB Kirk Cousins might be the best quarterback in the Big Ten and he has a slew of returning targets to throw to, which should lead to some impressive passing stats for MSU. They also have some talented RBs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker; they saw a lot of action last year as true freshmen and that experience should serve them well this year. Still, all of that offensive firepower could be for naught if the new look offensive line can't open holes for the backs and keep Cousins upright -- and that's a definite concern for now. The defense is stacked at LB with veterans Greg Jones and Eric Gordon and newcomers William Gholston and Max Bullough. On the other hand, they'll need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and in the secondary. Still, if they get some quality play from the newcomers in the defense and the offensive line gels quickly, this could be a surprise team in the Big Ten.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chris (Prediction: #11): Gone are the days of Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney rushing for 1,000 yards in the same year (in fact gone are those days in the NFL too, apparently...despite the fact that they are on different teams). Minnesota's offense will improve by way of returning a whopping 9 starters (which isn't saying much, it's hard to get worse than 109th in offense...you have to try pretty hard to do that). YAY! Whew. Wait, but they're still ranked 11th in the Big 10 (that sounds funny even to this day, I know, I chuckle)? So what's the bad news? Oh yeah, they return two on a D that was below average a year ago, including none in their front 7. YIKES! All Gophers fans can do is sit back and think about the days of their dreadlock tandems of running backs. Those were the days...
J Martin (Prediction: #11): It’s going to be a rough year in Minneapolis. I haven’t thought much of the Gophers for the past two seasons, but they’ve managed enough hocus pocus with the schedule to get bowl eligible in both. This season, the schedule is brutal, as they play USC and draw the consensus top 4 teams in the conference, and four of those games are at home (basically wasting home field advantage on teams they have no chance of beating). Even if they were good, they’d struggle. But despite returning nearly the entire offense, they lose their best player by far (Eric Decker), and Adam Weber is not a good quarterback at all. The defense was actually respectable last season, but they return only 2 starters in 2010. Minnesota has a nice new stadium. After this season, it might be time for the administration there to bring in a coach who can field a football team to match it.
Ross (Prediction: #11): As it stands, they're slated to return all of two starters and they'll be breaking in a new defensive coordinator, too. Expecting the Gophers to stop too many teams is a fool's errand. On the bright side, they return nine on offense, including fourth-year starter Adam Weber at QB. Of course, Weber is also working under his third or fourth different offensive coordinator, has regressed each year he's been there, and is without his safety blanket target (Eric Decker). Aside from Decker, they also return most of his top receivers, their leading rusher from a year ago, and their entire offensive line. But like Zook, Tim Brewster has managed the art of getting less out of his team and it's hard not to see them crumbling under the weight of a tough schedule (they entertain USC, Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa at home this year).
Northwestern Wildcats
Chris (Prediction: #7): Take your pick. It will be Purdue or Northwestern. Just like the middle of the Pac-10, this is truly hard to decide. Neither team brings much back, but Northwestern brings back 12 starters off of a surprising 8-5 team vs. Purdue bringing back 10 starters off of a decidedly average team a year ago. It's a fight to the finish, the only difference is, the winner only wins 7th place.
J Martin (Prediction: #5): Pat Fitzgerald has a really good thing going at Northwestern. And while I don’t see his program ever breaking through to contend for the Big 10 title, I also don’t see why he can’t keep winning about 8 games a year. He accomplishes the things that Bobby Johnson used to get credit for almost doing at Vanderbilt. The past 2 years, his Wildcats have finished 4th in the conference at 5-3. He generates this kind of consistency because his teams are always going to be focused around playing sound defense. This season, they return their entire starting linebacker unit. Their biggest challenge will be replacing the underrated Mike Kafka at QB, but presumptive starter Dan Persa gave Kafka a run for his money last off-season, and as a junior, he’s very familiar with the system. Their schedule divides neatly into two halves, and Northwestern could easily be 6-0 at the break. That could make them an extremely dangerous opponent to face late in the year, because they’ll already be bowl eligible and playing with house money, as they say. Revenge-minded Iowa should be wary heading into Evanston.
Ross (Prediction: #6): On the flipside of Michigan State, you have a team like Northwestern, who returns 4/5 of their offensive line but will be breaking in new starters at QB and two of the three starting WR spots. Still, Northwestern has usually done a fine job of finding unheralded players to come in and play at a high level at those spots. The defense features a lot of returning experience at LB and CB, but will be fielding new faces in the secondary and along the defensive line (where some newbie has the unpleasant task of trying to replace stud DE Corey Wooten). But Fitzgerald has proven himself to be an excellent coach, so it's not wise to bet against them too much. They'll probably lose to a team or two that they shouldn't, but they'll also beat a team or two that they shouldn't and will probably be a pesky out for each team on their schedule.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Chris (Prediction: #1): The Buckeyes are the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 10 and possibly even exorcise their demons by winning a national championship (though the Buckeyes do NOT want to see an SEC team meeting them there. Oh please, oh please, oh pretty please football gods! We knew you'd understand, we just can't beat the best of the best). Terrelle Pryor has been lambasted from the beginning of his sophomore year, the time in which fans thought he should have arrived and reached his potential. Instead, Pryor took baby steps until the Rose Bowl and then blew up. Fluke? I don't know, but I doubt it. I think some part of that guy has turned the corner. We'll see how much Pryor has grown when the Bucks go to Iowa for what will probably decide the conference champion. The defense lost some key cogs, but when does a Jim Tressel coached team not play good D? And they will again. Also running back is a concern. Nobody screams the next Beanie Wells. But I think Ohio State is a safe bet to at least take the Big 10, although I'm choosing not to speculate beyond that right now.
J Martin (Prediction: #1): I vacillated back and forth between the Buckeyes and Iowa as to which team was the best in the conference. It was a tough call. Both are loaded. Ultimately, I went with Ohio State. There isn't much negative you can say about this team on paper. They return a wealth of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. The only real question is which Terrelle Pryor is going to show up this season. The one from the Rose Bowl, or the one that had people calling for him to be moved to receiver? My guess is that he ends up close to Rose Bowl form. And if that's the case, the only thing standing in their way is a conference schedule that sees them go on the road to face their two biggest challenges this season, Iowa and Wisconsin. That almost tipped me in favor of the Hawkeyes. But then I remembered: these guys have developed into Big 10 road warriors over the past few years. Barring their epic brain fart against Purdue last year, the Buckeyes haven't lost a Big 10 away game since losing to Penn State in 2005. Kirk Ferentz does a great job at Iowa, but Jim Tressel has this program humming along on a much higher level than anybody else in the Big 10, and they know how to take care of business. They should win their 6th straight conference title, and maybe play in the BCS title game for the 4th time in the past decade if they can avoid another early season big game letdown against The U. They will then, of course, lose.
Ross (Prediction: #1): They return nine on offense and six on defense and have been so consistently dominant in the Big Ten that it's difficult to pick against them, no matter how much I'd like to. If the progress Pryor showed in the Rose Bowl was more than a one-game blip, the offense should be truly terrifying, as they'll have a dangerous passing game to go along with one of the nation's best rushing attacks. The defense has some key holes to fill (mainly, three spots along the defensive line), but OSU has done a better job of reloading than anyone else in the league, especially on defense... so it would be foolish to bet against them. Particularly since the guys they have starting this year are not fresh-faced newbies; they've seen a fair amount of action. The main potential red flag from them is the schedule, which has them facing their two toughest league rivals, Iowa and Wisconsin, on the the road.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Chris (Prediction: #4): The Big 10 is really a 3-team race (sorry if this is the first you've heard of this JoePa), but Penn State is right behind that group. Kevin Newsome should be a capable replacement for Darryl Clark in the athleticism department, but Clark brought such intangibles and leadership to the position that I think it is unlikely to expect Newsome to come right in and resume that role. In fact, he may never reach that level. To be honest, I don't know whether to be more worried about the offense or the defense. Neither will be bad, but neither will be spectacular. Because of Evan Royster I will go with the D. Royster's workload will probably increase, which is cause for concern because his statline DRAMATICALLY decreased a year ago, to the tune of 500 or so yards. However, I myself am in love with Royster's game, and I think he'll recover this year, posting equally as gaudy stats as two years ago.
J Martin (Prediction: #4): On paper, this looks like a very mediocre Penn State team to me. They have the schedule to still win 9 games and play in a nice bowl, but I don’t think they’re a threat to Iowa or Ohio State. Obviously, the main problem on offense is quarterback. They have no one with any experience. They have a couple of incoming freshmen who are promising (I hear Robert Bolden is impressing in camp), but knowing Joe Paterno, he’s going to go with the most steady upper classman until the wheels fall off. Of course, the “upper classmen” in question are sophomores, so regardless, the passing game is going to be WAY down. That means it’s going to fall to Evan Royster to carry the offense on the ground. And while he’s a talented guy, that’s going to be somewhat of a new role for him, and its difficult to say if he’s cut out for it. Defensively, they should be typically stout, which will be their saving grace. However, with the loss of their top 3 linebackers, as well as Jared Odrick on the line, they may not be an elite defense in 2010.
Ross (Prediction: #4): PSU returns plenty on offense (the majority of the offensive line, all their top receivers, and Evan Royster and Stephon Green at RB)... but they have a major question mark at QB, where they still haven't settled on a starter to replace Daryll Clark. That's definitely a concern, especially since they have to go on the road to Alabama and Iowa in their first five weeks. The defense returns just five and will need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and a trio of new linebackers. Fortunately, aside from OSU, no one in the Big Ten has done a better job of just reloading on defense than PSU; they have some highly-talented players waiting in the wings to step in and start at LB and along the defensive line. Really, the thing that damages this team the most might be the schedule: they should be a team that improves as the season progresses, but their schedule features some of their toughest games at the start of the season. That could be difficult to overcome.
Purdue Boilermakers
Chris (Prediction: #8): Take a look at Northwestern for my logic. If I'm wrong, see Robert Marve as the reason.
J Martin (Prediction: #8): The Boilermakers have been a better team than their overall record might have led you to believe the past 2 years. In 2009, they actually went 4-4 in the Big 10, and, if not for a slip-up against Northern Illinois, they would have gone to a bowl. This year’s team looks very similar to the past two, in the sense that they don’t wow you with their number of returning starters, but they’re not dreadfully undermanned either. So with their home-and-home series with Oregon coming to an end, and a much lesser opponent coming on, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t achieve bowl eligibility. They should win at least 3 of their non-conference games (Notre Dame is a toss-up), and they get three key conference “swing” games at home (Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana). The x-factor here will be new quarterback Robert Marve. If he finally has his head on straight, look out. He has an excellent receiving target in Keith Smith, and they can make this offense dangerous.
Ross (Prediction: #8): Robert Marve is a reason for hope as he takes over the QB position (unless you remember him imploding at Miami two years ago, although Purdue fans would rather you didn't mention that), and he has some good targets to throw to (particularly WR Keith Smith)... if the rebuilt offensive line (2/5 starters back) can give him enough protection to find them. RB is a possible trouble spot; Ralph Bolden emerged as a real threat in the Big Ten a year ago, but suffered a significant knee injury in spring practice and may not be ready to go this fall. The defense features one bona fide star (DE Ryan Kerrigan, the best player in the Big Ten that no one talks about) and a number of returning starters in the front seven (3/4 of the defensive line, all three linebackers)... but a host of new faces in the secondary. So Purdue could be in line for quite a few shootouts in 2010; we'll see just how far Marve has come from his Miami days.
Wisconsin Badgers
Chris (Prediction: #3): Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema has filled in seamlessly for Barry Alvarez as the Badgers head coach. He maintained the power running game that his predecessor thrived on, with big backs like P.J. Hill and now John Clay. Expect the Badgers to be pretty amazing offensively, where they return every starter but their fullback. Defensively it might be a work in progress, but the offense has such firepower and can control the clock with their style of play that I don't think the D's flaws will stand out. Wisconsin was only one of 6 teams that averaged 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing a season ago. Expect them to be in that category again, and given a slip up by one of the two above them, they could be seeing roses.
J Martin (Prediction: #3): The recipe for success remains the same as it has for the past 15 or 20 years: take a big, fat running back, line him up behind an even bigger, fatter offensive line, and just run over people. This season, the Badgers have an incredibly experienced big, fat offensive line (109 total starts), and return the big, fat Big 10 offensive player of the year, not to mention another good one in Montee Ball. In fact, they return just about everyone of consequence on offense except Garrett Graham. Scott Tolzien wasn’t overly impressive at QB last year, but he came on strong towards the end, and this team doesn’t need him to be more than an effective game manager. If he cuts his interception total in half, Wisconsin will be tough to beat. They have a very easy non-conference schedule and a favorable conference slate, including Ohio State at home. The only trick is that they have to go to Iowa to play the very next week. But if they take care of business against the Buckeyes at home, they could very well ride that momentum to a victory over the Hawkeyes. Of course…I could also see them going into the tank against Iowa if they lose to OSU. So that’s the critical stretch. 10 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team.
Ross (Prediction: #3): The Badgers are loaded on offense, especially along the line where they return all five starters. Those five behemoths should open plenty of holes for John Clay and Montee Ball and give Scott Tolzien time to hit open receivers on play-action passes. On the other hand, their defense returns only six starters (including just one on the defensive line) and they've been banged up in preseason camp, with two of their best returning defenders (LB Chris Borland and SS Jay Valai) missing time with injuries. The schedule is also a little nasty, as they get Ohio State and Iowa back-to-back. Bielema's done a solid job of beating the teams he should beat at Wisco, but he's struggled to get over the hump and beat the top dogs.
CFBZ Predicted Big Ten 2010 Standings
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Iowa Hawkeyes
3. Wisconsin Badgers
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Northwestern Wildcats
7. Michigan Wolverines
8. Purdue Boilermakers
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Indiana Hoosiers
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 (7-1)
Iowa Hawkeyes 11-2 (6-2)
Penn State Nittany Lions 11-2 (6-2)
Wisconsin Badgers 10-3 (5-3)
Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 (5-3)
Michigan State Spartans 6-7 (4-4)
Purdue Boilermakers 5-7 (4-4)
Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 (3-5)
Illinois Fighting Illini 3-9 (2-6)
Michigan Wolverines 5-7 (1-7)
Indiana Hoosiers 4-8 (1-7)
Returning Leaders: Passing
Ben Chappell, Indiana, Sr (268 of 428 for 2942 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin, Sr (211 of 328 for 2705 yds, 16 TD, 11 INT)
Kirk Cousins, Mich St, Jr (198 of 328 for 2680 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Adam Weber, Minnesota, Sr (191 of 267 for 2582 yds, 13 TD, 15 INT)
Ricky Stanzi, Iowa, Sr (171 of 304 for 2417 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
John Clay, Wisconsin, Jr (287 carries for 1517 yds, 18 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Evan Royster, Penn State, Sr (205 carries for 1169 yds, 6 TD, 5.7 ypc)
Ralph Bolden, Purdue, Jr (200 carries for 935 yds, 9 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Adam Robinson, Iowa, Soph (181 carries for 834 yds, 5 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Terrelle Pryor, Ohio St, Jr (162 carries for 779 yds, 7 TD, 4.8 ypc)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Keith Smith, Purdue, Sr (91 rec for 1100 yds, 6 TD, 7.6 rec/game)
Tandon Doss, Indiana, Jr (77 rec for 962 yds, 5 TD, 6.4 rec/game)
Damarlo Belcher, Indiana, Jr (61 rec for 770 yds, 5 TD, 5.1 rec/game)
DeVier Posey, Ohio St, Jr (60 rec for 828 yds, 8 TD, 4.6 rec/game)
Nick Toon, Wisconsin, Jr (54 rec for 805 yds, 4 TD, 4.2 rec/game)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (154 total, 11.8 tackles/game)
Ross Homan, Ohio St, Sr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Ian Thomas, Indiana, Jr, LB (95 total, 7.9 tackles/game)
Brian Rolle, Ohio St, Sr, LB (94 total, 7.2 tackles/game)
Eric Gordon, Mich St, Sr, LB (93 total, 7.1 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Adrian Clayborn, Iowa, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue, Sr, DE (11.0)
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (9.0)
Cameron Heyward, Sr, DE (6.5)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Tyler Sash, Iowa, Jr, SS (6 interceptions)
Ross Homan, Ohio State, Sr, LB (5)
Brett Greenwood, Iowa, Jr, FS (3)
Brian Peters, Northwestern, Jr, SS (3)
Kyle Theret, Minnesota, Jr, S (3)
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 10 WITH THE ZEALOTS
Illinois Fighting Illini
Chris (Prediction: #10): Bloop de bloop, de bweedley deep de deep de derk. Ron Zook is A COACH! For those of you who don't watch South Park and didn't understand the Rob Schneider joke reference, you're missing out. But the point is, Zook is a person masquerading as a coach. The only thing that we have to do now is figure out how long the act is in town. Newsflash: It's over at the end of this year. Also, I'm not even going to explain why I think the Illini will finish in 10th. It's Ron Zook isn't it? That's explanation enough.
J Martin (Prediction: #9): I never bought into the Juice Williams hype, but even I was astounded at just how badly the Illini fell on their face in 2009. I’m even more astounded that Ron Zook still has a job. I guess you can line up Illinois next to Maryland and Colorado as the schools that don’t care about football. But they’re still going to field a team this year, so I guess I’ll talk about them. It’s looking like a total reboot on the offensive side of the ball with new OC Paul Petrino needing to find a new QB, a new top receiver, and a consistent rushing attack, which they’ve lacked since Rashard Mendenhall bolted. (I really wish Daniel Dufrene had panned out, if only because my “Dufrene! Party of 6!” TD call was a big party hit.) Defensively, they’re a really underwhelming group, even though they return a fair amount of experience. Basically, it’s just a lame duck team. And they have two lower division teams on their schedule, so they’ll have to win 7 to get to a bowl. And that ain’t happening. I think everybody here will be through and waiting for the new coach by November.
Ross (Prediction: #9): The good news is that they return 3/5 of the offensive line and one of the league's most underrated running backs (Mikel LeShoure) and don't have to deal with the Juice Williams Experience anymore. On the other hand, they're on yet another new offensive coordinator and Ron Zook is still there. There are a few more faces back on defense, but really the last two years have made it crystal clear that it doesn't matter how much returning talent the Illini have; so long as Ron Zook is there, he'll find a way to screw it up. Skipping Iowa and Wisconsin on the schedule is a plus, but a three-game stretch against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State could crush their season.
Indiana Hoosiers
Chris (Prediction: #9): Indiana should improve gradually on offense as the year goes along, bringing back a lot of key pieces to the puzzle in the way of skill position players and just enough on the offensive line. As for defense...yeah, well...there's always next year.
J Martin (Prediction: #10): Indiana finished 1-7 at the bottom of the conference for the second straight season in 2009, but if just a handful of plays had gone the other way, they could have easily been 3-5 and playing in a bowl game. Because of that, they seem to have the most upward momentum of the worst programs in the conference. Unfortunately, when you’re at the level of an Indiana, progress isn’t always a straight line because you don’t have the talent on deck to pick up where the departing seniors left off. This year, Indiana will be feeling that the most on the defensive side of the ball, where they lose 9 of their top 13 contributors from last season. Not that the Hoosiers were world-beaters on D last year, but they were experienced, plucky guys who helped Indiana win the turnover battle in 7 of their 12 games (while their quarterback was busy throwing 15 interceptions). So its definitely a rebuilding year on that side of the ball. And the offense is simply not good enough to make up the difference. Their 4 patsy non-conference games should allow them to match 09’s win total, but beyond that, the going gets tough. This won’t be the year they take a step forward.
Ross (Prediction: #10): Indiana should have a very strong offense, considering they return nine starters -- everyone but a pair of linemen. QB Ben Chappell was pretty productive a year ago and he has all of his primary targets back again this year. So that's good. But an already bad defense returns only four starters and loses virtually all of its best players, too. That's a problem. They'd better get their wins early, too, since the schedule has them close with games against Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue. A year ago Indiana was good enough to hang in there for a while against Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State; they were also bad enough to choke away all those games and get destroyed, 47-7, by Indiana. Their offense might be good enough to steal a game or two in the Big Ten, but they're going to need to score a lot of points to overcome their leaky defense.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Chris (Prediction: #2): My bonehead prediction of 2009: "Iowa does not stand a chance against GT's triple option in the bowl game. They're going to get throttled." Whoops...looks like I've got some splainin' to do on that one. 1. I was wrong. 2. Did I mention I was wrong? Like WAY wrong? So yeah, my bad in my failed attempt to pick against the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz is an amazing program coach. He might not be flashy or in a league of his own, but he knows how to year in and year out put a good football team on the field. Defensively they should be among the nation's best again, returning 8 starters on that side of the ball. The concern is on offense, while returning Ricky Stanzi and some skill position guys, they have a completely revamped O-line. This team was a couple of injuries away from an undefeated season, although if you look at the first game, this team was a point away from being beaten at home by Northern Iowa too. So I'm not ready to call a team that loses so much from a sub-par offense a world-beater. The truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes...and that's why I think that Iowa will finish second to Ohio State and its arsenal of weapons on offense.
J Martin (Prediction: #2): I love this Iowa team. On defense, they look set to pick up right where they left off in 2009. Yes, they lost two very good linebackers and a good cornerback, but virtually everyone else who made a significant contribution to last year's unit is back. On offense, I expect them to be better than in 09. The offensive line doesn't look as dominant on paper, but OL's are Kirk Ferentz's specialty, so I have no doubt he'll put a quality line on the field. The main area where they need improvement is turnovers, particularly Ricky Stanzi's interceptions. If he can cut his 09 number in half, the Hawkeyes will be tough to beat. And I think he can do that. I think when presumptive running back starter Jewel Hampton went down with a preseason injury, thrusting that job into the hands of a couple of freshmen, it put the offense into a situation they weren't entirely comfortable with. Namely, it required Stanzi to make more plays than maybe he needed to at that point in his development. This year Hampton is back, and those freshmen (who didn't play half bad as the season progressed) now have a year's worth of experience under their belts. That's going to create more of a comfort zone for Stanzi and allow him to be more efficient with the football. I have this team below Ohio State right now, but just by a hair. The schedule definitely plays into their favor as they get their top 3 conference opponents at home. Iowa just needs to prove to me that they can win the lesser games consistently, like say against Northwestern, right along with the big games before I ever put them at #1.
Ross (Prediction: #2): Everything hinges on the development of the offensive line and the team's ability to stay healthy. The defense looks absolutely loaded and the offense is strong at the skill positions. But if guys start going down, there isn't a huge amount of depth at most positions. And the offensive line is still a big question mark, given that they have to work in three new starters who haven't had a lot of experience thus far. Still, if the injury gods smile upon them and the offensive line develops into a respectable outfit, this is a team built to go far. They get all of their toughest foes at home and the schedule is fairly manageable. On the other hand, their history against OSU is absolutely miserable, which makes it hard to pick them over OSU for now.
Michigan Wolverines
Chris (Prediction: #5): So Michigan started the season 5-2, and because of his stellar play everyone was lapping up the Wolverines and true freshman quarterback Tate Forcier. EHHHHHHHHH! Wrong answer. Survey says...the Wolves lost their remaining five games, and with exception of Purdue, they weren't close. So Michigan, what's up? Let's talk. For one, I have absolute faith that Forcier is a gamer and that if anyone is going to elevate that program back to where it was, it's him. The way he played as a true freshman coming into a situation that bad and with such moxie, WOW! Matt Barkley played like dog excrement compared to Forcier, especially considering that Barkley had skill position talent galore around him. Also, how long can Rich Rod and Michigan really be bad? I mean really? The guy's a winner. He may do it illegally, but he does win. The question is how will the ongoing NCAA probe affect the Maize and Blue? I think this is the year though, all things considered, that Michigan gets it right. I'm either way wrong or way right on this one. Here's to hoping I'm way right that one of college football's true traditional powerhouses comes back strong. Even Buckeyes fans want to see the rivalry game actually be somewhat competitive again!
J Martin (Prediction: #7): I’ll admit it’s really difficult for me to get a handle on Michigan this year for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t know who the quarterback is going to be. RichRod’s offense is totally dependent on who the trigger man is. In his heart of hearts, I think he wants Denard Robinson to be the QB because he’s the most dangerous runner of the two, but Forcier has shown more as a passer and doesn’t seem to be going away (unless he gets his feelings hurt and transfers, as rumored). If Forcier is the QB, Michigan is probably going to be in the .500 range, like last year, and maybe go to a bowl. If Robinson is the QB, they could go anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3. Secondly, I just don’t know how this team is going to respond to the axe hanging over Rodriguez’s neck. Are they going to rally around him and fight for a bowl, or are they going to quit and wait to start over with the new coach? Last year began under a similar cloud, and they started out inspired, but then they seemed to give up after dropping games to Michigan State and Iowa. If this year’s team doesn’t have more heart, this season could get REALLY ugly, because I think UConn has the team to show up in Ann Arbor and clean their clocks in week 1. I'm kinda on the fence, but I hate the 3-3-5 defense that Rich is bringing back, so I guess I'll be on the side of pessimism.
Ross (Prediction: #7): It seems increasingly unlikely that the Michigan defense will be able to stop a soul in 2010 (especially through the air), which means that the offense is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting to win games. Luckily, they return a pretty fair amount of talent on offense (3/5 of the OL, QB, a pair of receivers, and a tight end) and showed signs last year of evolving into the sort of high-powered offense that's been a staple of most Rodriguez-coached teams. But that defense... that defense is scary (and not in a good way), especially the secondary, which is an utter wasteland after multiple injuries and defections of highly-ranked talent. The schedule doesn't do them any favors, either; four of their final six Big Ten games are against Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.
Michigan State Spartans
Chris (Prediction: #6): My logic here? Good coach, okay team...not as good as at least four of the teams ahead of them in the Big Ten (may be faltering on my Michigan prediction already), but is definitely not as bad as the 5 teams below. Middle of the road Michigan State can knock people off, or lose to questionable teams. But in the end it all equals out and the Spartans should improve at least one game from their 6-7 season a year ago. You know they should really make some kind of rule with 6-6 bowl teams that if they lose and go 6-7 than they should have to play another 6-7 team that lost and the winner gets back to .500. The loser is disqualified from playing in a bowl the next year because there is no way a team like that should have ever played in a bowl in the first place. Who's with me?
J Martin (Prediction: #6): The Spartans suffered somewhat of a let down in 2009. Despite some turnover on offense, the defense was expected to carry the team to another 9 or 10 win season. But early in the year, the secondary completely imploded, and MSU ended up with one of the worst pass defenses in the conference. That exacerbated issues with a young offense, and the next thing you know, they’re struggling to make a bowl game. Well, the defense is slightly less experienced, with many of their losses coming in the secondary. Your first instinct might be to expect another bad year, but my opinion is that when you’re as bad as the Spartans were in 09, a bunch of fresh faces can be just what you need. I’m looking for a big rebound, led by returning senior linebacker Greg Jones. I also expect more out of the offense now that they’ve settled in on one quarterback and all those freshman running backs have had a year to mature in the system. They still won’t be ready to compete with the best in the conference, but they should return to 8-9 win form.
Ross (Prediction: #5): MSU looks a lot like Iowa on offense: lots of returning talent at the skill positions and a lot of question marks along the offensive line. QB Kirk Cousins might be the best quarterback in the Big Ten and he has a slew of returning targets to throw to, which should lead to some impressive passing stats for MSU. They also have some talented RBs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker; they saw a lot of action last year as true freshmen and that experience should serve them well this year. Still, all of that offensive firepower could be for naught if the new look offensive line can't open holes for the backs and keep Cousins upright -- and that's a definite concern for now. The defense is stacked at LB with veterans Greg Jones and Eric Gordon and newcomers William Gholston and Max Bullough. On the other hand, they'll need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and in the secondary. Still, if they get some quality play from the newcomers in the defense and the offensive line gels quickly, this could be a surprise team in the Big Ten.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chris (Prediction: #11): Gone are the days of Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney rushing for 1,000 yards in the same year (in fact gone are those days in the NFL too, apparently...despite the fact that they are on different teams). Minnesota's offense will improve by way of returning a whopping 9 starters (which isn't saying much, it's hard to get worse than 109th in offense...you have to try pretty hard to do that). YAY! Whew. Wait, but they're still ranked 11th in the Big 10 (that sounds funny even to this day, I know, I chuckle)? So what's the bad news? Oh yeah, they return two on a D that was below average a year ago, including none in their front 7. YIKES! All Gophers fans can do is sit back and think about the days of their dreadlock tandems of running backs. Those were the days...
J Martin (Prediction: #11): It’s going to be a rough year in Minneapolis. I haven’t thought much of the Gophers for the past two seasons, but they’ve managed enough hocus pocus with the schedule to get bowl eligible in both. This season, the schedule is brutal, as they play USC and draw the consensus top 4 teams in the conference, and four of those games are at home (basically wasting home field advantage on teams they have no chance of beating). Even if they were good, they’d struggle. But despite returning nearly the entire offense, they lose their best player by far (Eric Decker), and Adam Weber is not a good quarterback at all. The defense was actually respectable last season, but they return only 2 starters in 2010. Minnesota has a nice new stadium. After this season, it might be time for the administration there to bring in a coach who can field a football team to match it.
Ross (Prediction: #11): As it stands, they're slated to return all of two starters and they'll be breaking in a new defensive coordinator, too. Expecting the Gophers to stop too many teams is a fool's errand. On the bright side, they return nine on offense, including fourth-year starter Adam Weber at QB. Of course, Weber is also working under his third or fourth different offensive coordinator, has regressed each year he's been there, and is without his safety blanket target (Eric Decker). Aside from Decker, they also return most of his top receivers, their leading rusher from a year ago, and their entire offensive line. But like Zook, Tim Brewster has managed the art of getting less out of his team and it's hard not to see them crumbling under the weight of a tough schedule (they entertain USC, Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa at home this year).
Northwestern Wildcats
Chris (Prediction: #7): Take your pick. It will be Purdue or Northwestern. Just like the middle of the Pac-10, this is truly hard to decide. Neither team brings much back, but Northwestern brings back 12 starters off of a surprising 8-5 team vs. Purdue bringing back 10 starters off of a decidedly average team a year ago. It's a fight to the finish, the only difference is, the winner only wins 7th place.
J Martin (Prediction: #5): Pat Fitzgerald has a really good thing going at Northwestern. And while I don’t see his program ever breaking through to contend for the Big 10 title, I also don’t see why he can’t keep winning about 8 games a year. He accomplishes the things that Bobby Johnson used to get credit for almost doing at Vanderbilt. The past 2 years, his Wildcats have finished 4th in the conference at 5-3. He generates this kind of consistency because his teams are always going to be focused around playing sound defense. This season, they return their entire starting linebacker unit. Their biggest challenge will be replacing the underrated Mike Kafka at QB, but presumptive starter Dan Persa gave Kafka a run for his money last off-season, and as a junior, he’s very familiar with the system. Their schedule divides neatly into two halves, and Northwestern could easily be 6-0 at the break. That could make them an extremely dangerous opponent to face late in the year, because they’ll already be bowl eligible and playing with house money, as they say. Revenge-minded Iowa should be wary heading into Evanston.
Ross (Prediction: #6): On the flipside of Michigan State, you have a team like Northwestern, who returns 4/5 of their offensive line but will be breaking in new starters at QB and two of the three starting WR spots. Still, Northwestern has usually done a fine job of finding unheralded players to come in and play at a high level at those spots. The defense features a lot of returning experience at LB and CB, but will be fielding new faces in the secondary and along the defensive line (where some newbie has the unpleasant task of trying to replace stud DE Corey Wooten). But Fitzgerald has proven himself to be an excellent coach, so it's not wise to bet against them too much. They'll probably lose to a team or two that they shouldn't, but they'll also beat a team or two that they shouldn't and will probably be a pesky out for each team on their schedule.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Chris (Prediction: #1): The Buckeyes are the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 10 and possibly even exorcise their demons by winning a national championship (though the Buckeyes do NOT want to see an SEC team meeting them there. Oh please, oh please, oh pretty please football gods! We knew you'd understand, we just can't beat the best of the best). Terrelle Pryor has been lambasted from the beginning of his sophomore year, the time in which fans thought he should have arrived and reached his potential. Instead, Pryor took baby steps until the Rose Bowl and then blew up. Fluke? I don't know, but I doubt it. I think some part of that guy has turned the corner. We'll see how much Pryor has grown when the Bucks go to Iowa for what will probably decide the conference champion. The defense lost some key cogs, but when does a Jim Tressel coached team not play good D? And they will again. Also running back is a concern. Nobody screams the next Beanie Wells. But I think Ohio State is a safe bet to at least take the Big 10, although I'm choosing not to speculate beyond that right now.
J Martin (Prediction: #1): I vacillated back and forth between the Buckeyes and Iowa as to which team was the best in the conference. It was a tough call. Both are loaded. Ultimately, I went with Ohio State. There isn't much negative you can say about this team on paper. They return a wealth of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. The only real question is which Terrelle Pryor is going to show up this season. The one from the Rose Bowl, or the one that had people calling for him to be moved to receiver? My guess is that he ends up close to Rose Bowl form. And if that's the case, the only thing standing in their way is a conference schedule that sees them go on the road to face their two biggest challenges this season, Iowa and Wisconsin. That almost tipped me in favor of the Hawkeyes. But then I remembered: these guys have developed into Big 10 road warriors over the past few years. Barring their epic brain fart against Purdue last year, the Buckeyes haven't lost a Big 10 away game since losing to Penn State in 2005. Kirk Ferentz does a great job at Iowa, but Jim Tressel has this program humming along on a much higher level than anybody else in the Big 10, and they know how to take care of business. They should win their 6th straight conference title, and maybe play in the BCS title game for the 4th time in the past decade if they can avoid another early season big game letdown against The U. They will then, of course, lose.
Ross (Prediction: #1): They return nine on offense and six on defense and have been so consistently dominant in the Big Ten that it's difficult to pick against them, no matter how much I'd like to. If the progress Pryor showed in the Rose Bowl was more than a one-game blip, the offense should be truly terrifying, as they'll have a dangerous passing game to go along with one of the nation's best rushing attacks. The defense has some key holes to fill (mainly, three spots along the defensive line), but OSU has done a better job of reloading than anyone else in the league, especially on defense... so it would be foolish to bet against them. Particularly since the guys they have starting this year are not fresh-faced newbies; they've seen a fair amount of action. The main potential red flag from them is the schedule, which has them facing their two toughest league rivals, Iowa and Wisconsin, on the the road.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Chris (Prediction: #4): The Big 10 is really a 3-team race (sorry if this is the first you've heard of this JoePa), but Penn State is right behind that group. Kevin Newsome should be a capable replacement for Darryl Clark in the athleticism department, but Clark brought such intangibles and leadership to the position that I think it is unlikely to expect Newsome to come right in and resume that role. In fact, he may never reach that level. To be honest, I don't know whether to be more worried about the offense or the defense. Neither will be bad, but neither will be spectacular. Because of Evan Royster I will go with the D. Royster's workload will probably increase, which is cause for concern because his statline DRAMATICALLY decreased a year ago, to the tune of 500 or so yards. However, I myself am in love with Royster's game, and I think he'll recover this year, posting equally as gaudy stats as two years ago.
J Martin (Prediction: #4): On paper, this looks like a very mediocre Penn State team to me. They have the schedule to still win 9 games and play in a nice bowl, but I don’t think they’re a threat to Iowa or Ohio State. Obviously, the main problem on offense is quarterback. They have no one with any experience. They have a couple of incoming freshmen who are promising (I hear Robert Bolden is impressing in camp), but knowing Joe Paterno, he’s going to go with the most steady upper classman until the wheels fall off. Of course, the “upper classmen” in question are sophomores, so regardless, the passing game is going to be WAY down. That means it’s going to fall to Evan Royster to carry the offense on the ground. And while he’s a talented guy, that’s going to be somewhat of a new role for him, and its difficult to say if he’s cut out for it. Defensively, they should be typically stout, which will be their saving grace. However, with the loss of their top 3 linebackers, as well as Jared Odrick on the line, they may not be an elite defense in 2010.
Ross (Prediction: #4): PSU returns plenty on offense (the majority of the offensive line, all their top receivers, and Evan Royster and Stephon Green at RB)... but they have a major question mark at QB, where they still haven't settled on a starter to replace Daryll Clark. That's definitely a concern, especially since they have to go on the road to Alabama and Iowa in their first five weeks. The defense returns just five and will need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and a trio of new linebackers. Fortunately, aside from OSU, no one in the Big Ten has done a better job of just reloading on defense than PSU; they have some highly-talented players waiting in the wings to step in and start at LB and along the defensive line. Really, the thing that damages this team the most might be the schedule: they should be a team that improves as the season progresses, but their schedule features some of their toughest games at the start of the season. That could be difficult to overcome.
Purdue Boilermakers
Chris (Prediction: #8): Take a look at Northwestern for my logic. If I'm wrong, see Robert Marve as the reason.
J Martin (Prediction: #8): The Boilermakers have been a better team than their overall record might have led you to believe the past 2 years. In 2009, they actually went 4-4 in the Big 10, and, if not for a slip-up against Northern Illinois, they would have gone to a bowl. This year’s team looks very similar to the past two, in the sense that they don’t wow you with their number of returning starters, but they’re not dreadfully undermanned either. So with their home-and-home series with Oregon coming to an end, and a much lesser opponent coming on, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t achieve bowl eligibility. They should win at least 3 of their non-conference games (Notre Dame is a toss-up), and they get three key conference “swing” games at home (Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana). The x-factor here will be new quarterback Robert Marve. If he finally has his head on straight, look out. He has an excellent receiving target in Keith Smith, and they can make this offense dangerous.
Ross (Prediction: #8): Robert Marve is a reason for hope as he takes over the QB position (unless you remember him imploding at Miami two years ago, although Purdue fans would rather you didn't mention that), and he has some good targets to throw to (particularly WR Keith Smith)... if the rebuilt offensive line (2/5 starters back) can give him enough protection to find them. RB is a possible trouble spot; Ralph Bolden emerged as a real threat in the Big Ten a year ago, but suffered a significant knee injury in spring practice and may not be ready to go this fall. The defense features one bona fide star (DE Ryan Kerrigan, the best player in the Big Ten that no one talks about) and a number of returning starters in the front seven (3/4 of the defensive line, all three linebackers)... but a host of new faces in the secondary. So Purdue could be in line for quite a few shootouts in 2010; we'll see just how far Marve has come from his Miami days.
Wisconsin Badgers
Chris (Prediction: #3): Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema has filled in seamlessly for Barry Alvarez as the Badgers head coach. He maintained the power running game that his predecessor thrived on, with big backs like P.J. Hill and now John Clay. Expect the Badgers to be pretty amazing offensively, where they return every starter but their fullback. Defensively it might be a work in progress, but the offense has such firepower and can control the clock with their style of play that I don't think the D's flaws will stand out. Wisconsin was only one of 6 teams that averaged 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing a season ago. Expect them to be in that category again, and given a slip up by one of the two above them, they could be seeing roses.
J Martin (Prediction: #3): The recipe for success remains the same as it has for the past 15 or 20 years: take a big, fat running back, line him up behind an even bigger, fatter offensive line, and just run over people. This season, the Badgers have an incredibly experienced big, fat offensive line (109 total starts), and return the big, fat Big 10 offensive player of the year, not to mention another good one in Montee Ball. In fact, they return just about everyone of consequence on offense except Garrett Graham. Scott Tolzien wasn’t overly impressive at QB last year, but he came on strong towards the end, and this team doesn’t need him to be more than an effective game manager. If he cuts his interception total in half, Wisconsin will be tough to beat. They have a very easy non-conference schedule and a favorable conference slate, including Ohio State at home. The only trick is that they have to go to Iowa to play the very next week. But if they take care of business against the Buckeyes at home, they could very well ride that momentum to a victory over the Hawkeyes. Of course…I could also see them going into the tank against Iowa if they lose to OSU. So that’s the critical stretch. 10 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team.
Ross (Prediction: #3): The Badgers are loaded on offense, especially along the line where they return all five starters. Those five behemoths should open plenty of holes for John Clay and Montee Ball and give Scott Tolzien time to hit open receivers on play-action passes. On the other hand, their defense returns only six starters (including just one on the defensive line) and they've been banged up in preseason camp, with two of their best returning defenders (LB Chris Borland and SS Jay Valai) missing time with injuries. The schedule is also a little nasty, as they get Ohio State and Iowa back-to-back. Bielema's done a solid job of beating the teams he should beat at Wisco, but he's struggled to get over the hump and beat the top dogs.
CFBZ Predicted Big Ten 2010 Standings
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Iowa Hawkeyes
3. Wisconsin Badgers
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Northwestern Wildcats
7. Michigan Wolverines
8. Purdue Boilermakers
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Indiana Hoosiers
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Friday, August 20, 2010
Pre-Season Preview: Michigan State Spartans
2009 Record: 6-7 (4-4 in Big Ten)
2009 Bowl: Alamo Bowl (lost to Texas Tech 41-31)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: Not Ranked
Head Coach: Mark Dantonio (22-17 at Michigan St, 40-34 Overall)
Non-Conference Schedule: Western Michigan (9/4), Florida Atlantic (9/11), Notre Dame (9/18), Northern Colorado (9/25)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 29.7 points per game (2nd in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 136 (6th in Big Ten)
Passing Yards/Game: 269 (2nd in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 406 (3rd in Big Ten)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 26.3 points per game (7th in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 113 (4th in Big Ten)
Passing Yards/Game: 267 (11th in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 380 (8th in Big Ten)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: -0.46 per game (10th in Big Ten)
Penalties: 55 yards per game (10th in Big Ten)
Returning Starters
Offense: 6
Defense: 6
Kicker/Punter: 1
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Kirk Cousins, Jr (198 of 328 for 2680 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Rushing: RB Larry Caper, Soph (120 carries for 468 yds, 6 TD, 3.9 ypc)
Rushing: RB Edwin Baker, Soph (85 carries for 427 yds, 1 TD, 5.0 ypc)
Receiving: WR B.J. Cunningham, Jr (48 rec, 641 yds, 4 TD)
Tackles: LB Greg Jones, Sr (154)
Sacks: LB Greg Jones, Sr (9)
Interceptions: FS Trenton Robinson, Jr (1), CB Chris Rucker, Sr (1)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #31
Phil Steele: #35
Pre-Snap Read: #51
Sporting News: #50
2010 Pre-Season Big Ten Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #5
Phil Steele: #5 (tied with Michigan)
Sports Illustrated: #5 (tied with Northwestern)
Bowl Predictions:
Athlon Sports: Gator Bowl (vs. LSU)
Phil Steele: Insight Bowl (vs. Missouri)
Michigan State was a disappointing 6-7 last year including losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame out of conference. In conference they fared a little better at 4-4 losing to Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State but also dropping one to Minnesota. Michigan State has a favorable schedule this year as they play a non-conference schedule that any team in football would sign up to play (Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic AND Northern Colorado?). In conference they have tough road tests at Penn State and Iowa but they get Wisconsin at home and don't have to face National Championship contender Ohio State. Michigan State appears to be right outside of the Big 4 (Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin). Can they break into the top tier of the Big 10 before Nebraska joins the fold next year? To learn more about Michigan State we couldn't turn to a regular college football blog. We had to go to someone who has known the lowest of lows and has endured the unthinkable depths of blogging about a winless team. We felt that was the only way to gain real perspective into this years team. So we turned to the Detroit Lions blog (and Michigan State fan) The Lions in Winter to find out what is in store for the Michigan State Spartans this year.
What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the Spartans?
When it comes to strengths, it's hard not to begin with the two-time preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and consensus first-team All-American, MLB Greg Jones. Standing at 6'-1", and currently listed at 240, Jones is slightly undersized for a traditional Big Ten MLB, but makes up for it with speed, and off-the-charts intensity. The heart and soul of the defense, Jones has led the team in tackles in 23 of his last 26 games, and is currently in second place on the active NCAA career tackles list, with 359, at a 9.2 tackle-per-game clip. Outside of fellow senior, starting SAM Eric Gordon, though, the LB corps has talent, but is very young.
The Spartans are going to be most dangerous on the offensive side of the ball, with "Captain" Kirk Cousins returning for his junior year as the unquestioned quarterback. Cousins's rival for snaps at the helm last season, junior Keith Nichol, has bulked up and converted to wide receiver. The former Elite 11 QB prospect and Oklahoma Sooner certainly looks the part; just view the first photo in this gallery (he's on the left). In 2009, as a sophomore, Cousins completed 60.4% of his 328 passes for 2,680 yards, 19 TDs, and 9 picks.
With one or two notable exceptions, Cousins has displayed preternatural poise and decision-making skills. Often during 2009, Nichol was subbed in for a series right as Cousins was getting in a rhythm; this blogger is not the only that thought this switcheroo cost the Spartans at least one, and maybe more, wins in 2009.
At tailback, the Spartans are very young, but very talented. The Spartans landed two Rivals 4-star tailbacks in their 2009 recruiting class, and both played extensively. Larry Caper was billed as a straight-ahead bruiser, and Edwin Baker the explosive slashy type. Their builds and skills bear that out--but Caper showed a real knack for reading gaps in the line and making a quick cut into space, and Baker ran harder between the tackles than expected. Baker averaged 5.0 YpC on 85 rushes, and Caper netted 428 yards and 6 TDs with his 128 carries. 6'-2", 230-pound freshman Le'Veon Bell may be deployed around the goal line, and speedy 5'-7", Rivals 4-star Nick Hill can spell Baker as a speed back.
Finally, the TE group: Between fifth-year senior Charlie Gantt, junior Brian Linthicum, 2009 Rivals 4-star Dion Sims, and junior Garrett "Yeah My Brother's Name is Brent" Celek, the Spartans are stacked at tight end. All stand 6'-5" tall, and they range in size from 238 pounds (Linthicum) to an astounding 285 (Sims). One hopes that they'll help shore up the main area of concern for the offense: pass blocking, and the offensive line.
At left tackle, fifth-year senior D.J. Young gets the nod, after starting 2009 at RT. 6'-8", 308-pound redshirt freshman OT David Barrent was a 2009 Rivals 4-star, but injury has kept him off the field so far this summer. If Barrent can recover, he may yet see the field this year. At center, fifth-year senior John Stipek will start. I thought that 2009 4-star recruit Nate Klatt might push him for time, but Dantonio has said that Stipek's play has taken a great leap forward from last season to now. At guard, junior Joel Foreman will hold down the left side, but right guard is a battle between sophomores Chris McDonald and Zach Hueter, and massive converted DT Antonio Jeremiah. Jeremiah, a 2008 four-star DT prospect, goes 6'-5" 360, and has been getting looks at guard and even fullback(!) in spring ball and camp. Look for him all over the place in goal line packages. Right tackle is still a competition between 5th-year senior J'Michael Deane, and junior Jared McGaha, with Heuter possibly in the mix as well.
Another other major area of concern is the defensive backfield. At cornerback, senior Chris L. Rucker has been impressive, and is by far the best player in the secondary; with another strong season he could be a mid-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft. However, both redshirt sophomore Johnny Adams, and true freshman Mylan Hicks, will be counted on to contribute heavily. Behind them, 5th-year senior Marcus Hyde and junior Trenton Robinson will start at strong and free safety, respectively. Both are returning starters--but that's cause for alarm, not reassurance.
Finally, the Spartans got a lot of sacks last year, but a high percentage of them came on the blitz. If the defense is going to be successful, they'll have to get a lot of pressure from the front four--and wow, are they young. Inside, true sophomore Jerel Worthy shows impressive athleticism for his size (6'-3", 305). He'll be paired with another true sophomore, the offensive coordinator's son, Blake Treadwell. Treadwell, at 6'-3", 277, was a 2009 Rivals 4-star center prospect, but now will be trying to get upfield from the other side of the ball. Sophomore DE Tyler Hoover will have to live up to the potential his 6'-7", 265-pound frame promises, and fifth-year senior DE Colin Neely must blossom as he takes over the other end spot. This extremely young defensive line may also get a boost from prize 2010 recruit William Gholston, former Buckeye Vernon Gholston's cousin. Though he likely won't start, Gholston's Rivals 5-star ability, and 6'-7", 250-pound frame, will see time on the field--how much time is likely up to his production.
Looking at the schedule who will be the first major test?
If for no other reasons than it's at home, at night, on national TV, and it's Notre Dame, Notre Dame. I have very real doubts about ND's level of talent and experience on both sides of the ball, but if there's one thing new head coach Brian Kelly has done, it's win, early and frequently, wherever he's gone. There will be an interesting subtext here, too, as Kelly was rumored to have finished second to Dantonio in MSU's last coaching search--and when wasn't offered the Spartans job, he left Central Michigan to take over Dantonio's Cincinnati program. Don't think both coaches, and Spartan fans, aren't aware of the implied career measuring stick this game represents.
What team on the schedule do you fear the most?
I don't think there's a question that Ohio State is the scariest team in the Big Ten this season--but then, they're not on the schedule. I'd say the toughest game to win is going to be the last: a road game in Happy Valley. Not only have the Spartans never beat Penn State on the road, but they'll be the guest of dishonor for a potential JoePa's Last Game. I don't like the odds for a victory out there.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
Hands down, no question, it's WR/KR Keshawn Martin. With a jawdropping 411 yards and 5 TDs on only 18 catches, plus 665 yards and a TD returning kicks, the former high school quarterback enters his junior year as the starting Z receiver. At 5'-11, 185, he's got the explosive game of a slot receiver, but the frame to play outside. Also, that "former high school quarterback" thing comes into play when offensive coordinator Don Treadwell is feeling frisky. In 2009, he threw three times for three completions, 40 yards, and two touchdowns. A very under-the-radar, diamond-in-the-rough-type success story, "Key" is not only a triple threat, he's very well-liked and incredibly easy to root for.
Who is the best offensive player on the team?
I'm going to say Cousins. I'm thinking he has a very, very big junior year in store. He's always displayed precocious understanding of the game, and with his first full offseason as the unquestioned starter, he should be ready to take a big step forward.
Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?
Jones, no question. After Jones? Still Jones.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?
The Spartans are going to need both corners to play up to their potential, but they're also going to need 6'-7", 265-pound sophomore pass rusher Tyler Hoover to immediately apply pressure to the opposing quarterback. True freshman CB Mylan Hicks is getting a lot of buzz as being much more polished than a freshman corner ought to be--and given the Spartans' struggles in coverage last season, any production they get from him will be a great boost. Getting pressure without blitzing, and improving man-to-man coverage on the outside, will go a long way towards fixing the Spartans' pass defense.
Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
Actually, though there's a list of true sophomores that will start or get heavy reps (Caper, Baker, McDonald, Sims), I don't think there's a "newcomer" who fits the bill. Le'Veon Bell may get a lot of goal-line carries, and touted freshman punter Mike Sadler may actually end up winning the placekicking job--which shows you how sorely Brett Swenson will be missed.
Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
There are a wealth of possibilities here--but through strength of bloodline and obvious opportunity, I'll go with true freshman Max Bullough, a third-generation Spartan linebacker. Son of Shane Bullough, nephew of Chuck Bullough, and Grandson of Max Bullough, the Rivals 4-star inside linebacker will likely see the field early and often. Currently listed as the #2 MLB behind Greg Jones, Bullough will see time outside, inside in relief of Jones, or inside as part of a much-rumored new 3-4 package that puts Jones at ROLB.
Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
Partially thanks to the Buckeye-less schedule, and partially thanks to an even-weaker-than-usual crop of non-conference opponents, I see an 8-4 overall record, and 4-4 Big Ten record, as the likely finishing point. I'd be satisfied with that, given the extreme youth of the defense, and the transitional state of the offensive line--not to mention, the suspensions and dismissals that ravaged the skill position depth chart. However, thanks partially to facing Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford in his first two, and having half his skill position players suspended in his third, Mark Dantonio has yet to win a bowl game as coach at MSU. I'd happily trade an 8-win regular season for a 7-win season with a bowl victory, just to get the proverbial monkey off of Dantonio's back--but I don't think I'd trade a third straight victory over Michigan for a bowl win. Beating Michigan for the third time in a row, and second in a row in Ann Arbor, would be . . . well, awesome. Honestly, given the level of talent on the MSU roster, and level of competition in the schedule, anything less than 7-win regular season would have to be considered a disappointment.
Thanks to Ty for taking a break from covering the NFL to talk about college football with us. Make sure to to visit his blog The Lions In Winter and follow him on twitter @lionsinwinter for some always interesting commentary.
Previous Big Ten Previews:
Illinois Fighting Illini
Indiana Hoosiers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Michigan Wolverines
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Northwestern Wildcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Purdue Boilermakers
Wisconsin Badgers
Next Up: Tennessee Volunteers
Previous Pre-Season Previews
ACC- Boston College Eagles, Clemson Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins, North Carolina Tar Heels, North Carolina State Wolfpack Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Big 12- Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Texas Longhorns, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Syracuse Orange, UConn Huskies, USF Bulls, West Virginia Mountaineers
Conference USA- East Carolina Pirates, Houston Cougars, Marshall Thundering Herd, Rice Owls, SMU Mustangs, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
Independent- Army Black Knights, Navy Midshipmen, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
MAC- Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Central Michigan Chippewas, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets
MWC- BYU Cougars, Colorado State Rams, UNLV Rebels, Utah Utes
Pac-10- Arizona Wildcats, Arizona State Sun Devils, California Golden Bears, Oregon Ducks, Oregon State Beavers, Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Washington Huskies, Washington State Cougars
SEC- Alabama Crimson Tide, Auburn Tigers, Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky Wildcats, LSU Tigers, Mississippi Rebels, Mississippi State Bulldogs, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
Sun Belt- FIU Golden Panthers, North Texas Mean Green, Troy Trojans
WAC- Boise State Broncos, Fresno State Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, New Mexico State Aggies
2009 Bowl: Alamo Bowl (lost to Texas Tech 41-31)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: Not Ranked
Head Coach: Mark Dantonio (22-17 at Michigan St, 40-34 Overall)
Non-Conference Schedule: Western Michigan (9/4), Florida Atlantic (9/11), Notre Dame (9/18), Northern Colorado (9/25)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 29.7 points per game (2nd in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 136 (6th in Big Ten)
Passing Yards/Game: 269 (2nd in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 406 (3rd in Big Ten)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 26.3 points per game (7th in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 113 (4th in Big Ten)
Passing Yards/Game: 267 (11th in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 380 (8th in Big Ten)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: -0.46 per game (10th in Big Ten)
Penalties: 55 yards per game (10th in Big Ten)
Returning Starters
Offense: 6
Defense: 6
Kicker/Punter: 1
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Kirk Cousins, Jr (198 of 328 for 2680 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Rushing: RB Larry Caper, Soph (120 carries for 468 yds, 6 TD, 3.9 ypc)
Rushing: RB Edwin Baker, Soph (85 carries for 427 yds, 1 TD, 5.0 ypc)
Receiving: WR B.J. Cunningham, Jr (48 rec, 641 yds, 4 TD)
Tackles: LB Greg Jones, Sr (154)
Sacks: LB Greg Jones, Sr (9)
Interceptions: FS Trenton Robinson, Jr (1), CB Chris Rucker, Sr (1)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #31
Phil Steele: #35
Pre-Snap Read: #51
Sporting News: #50
2010 Pre-Season Big Ten Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #5
Phil Steele: #5 (tied with Michigan)
Sports Illustrated: #5 (tied with Northwestern)
Bowl Predictions:
Athlon Sports: Gator Bowl (vs. LSU)
Phil Steele: Insight Bowl (vs. Missouri)
Michigan State was a disappointing 6-7 last year including losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame out of conference. In conference they fared a little better at 4-4 losing to Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State but also dropping one to Minnesota. Michigan State has a favorable schedule this year as they play a non-conference schedule that any team in football would sign up to play (Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic AND Northern Colorado?). In conference they have tough road tests at Penn State and Iowa but they get Wisconsin at home and don't have to face National Championship contender Ohio State. Michigan State appears to be right outside of the Big 4 (Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin). Can they break into the top tier of the Big 10 before Nebraska joins the fold next year? To learn more about Michigan State we couldn't turn to a regular college football blog. We had to go to someone who has known the lowest of lows and has endured the unthinkable depths of blogging about a winless team. We felt that was the only way to gain real perspective into this years team. So we turned to the Detroit Lions blog (and Michigan State fan) The Lions in Winter to find out what is in store for the Michigan State Spartans this year.
What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the Spartans?
When it comes to strengths, it's hard not to begin with the two-time preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and consensus first-team All-American, MLB Greg Jones. Standing at 6'-1", and currently listed at 240, Jones is slightly undersized for a traditional Big Ten MLB, but makes up for it with speed, and off-the-charts intensity. The heart and soul of the defense, Jones has led the team in tackles in 23 of his last 26 games, and is currently in second place on the active NCAA career tackles list, with 359, at a 9.2 tackle-per-game clip. Outside of fellow senior, starting SAM Eric Gordon, though, the LB corps has talent, but is very young.
The Spartans are going to be most dangerous on the offensive side of the ball, with "Captain" Kirk Cousins returning for his junior year as the unquestioned quarterback. Cousins's rival for snaps at the helm last season, junior Keith Nichol, has bulked up and converted to wide receiver. The former Elite 11 QB prospect and Oklahoma Sooner certainly looks the part; just view the first photo in this gallery (he's on the left). In 2009, as a sophomore, Cousins completed 60.4% of his 328 passes for 2,680 yards, 19 TDs, and 9 picks.
With one or two notable exceptions, Cousins has displayed preternatural poise and decision-making skills. Often during 2009, Nichol was subbed in for a series right as Cousins was getting in a rhythm; this blogger is not the only that thought this switcheroo cost the Spartans at least one, and maybe more, wins in 2009.
At tailback, the Spartans are very young, but very talented. The Spartans landed two Rivals 4-star tailbacks in their 2009 recruiting class, and both played extensively. Larry Caper was billed as a straight-ahead bruiser, and Edwin Baker the explosive slashy type. Their builds and skills bear that out--but Caper showed a real knack for reading gaps in the line and making a quick cut into space, and Baker ran harder between the tackles than expected. Baker averaged 5.0 YpC on 85 rushes, and Caper netted 428 yards and 6 TDs with his 128 carries. 6'-2", 230-pound freshman Le'Veon Bell may be deployed around the goal line, and speedy 5'-7", Rivals 4-star Nick Hill can spell Baker as a speed back.
Finally, the TE group: Between fifth-year senior Charlie Gantt, junior Brian Linthicum, 2009 Rivals 4-star Dion Sims, and junior Garrett "Yeah My Brother's Name is Brent" Celek, the Spartans are stacked at tight end. All stand 6'-5" tall, and they range in size from 238 pounds (Linthicum) to an astounding 285 (Sims). One hopes that they'll help shore up the main area of concern for the offense: pass blocking, and the offensive line.
At left tackle, fifth-year senior D.J. Young gets the nod, after starting 2009 at RT. 6'-8", 308-pound redshirt freshman OT David Barrent was a 2009 Rivals 4-star, but injury has kept him off the field so far this summer. If Barrent can recover, he may yet see the field this year. At center, fifth-year senior John Stipek will start. I thought that 2009 4-star recruit Nate Klatt might push him for time, but Dantonio has said that Stipek's play has taken a great leap forward from last season to now. At guard, junior Joel Foreman will hold down the left side, but right guard is a battle between sophomores Chris McDonald and Zach Hueter, and massive converted DT Antonio Jeremiah. Jeremiah, a 2008 four-star DT prospect, goes 6'-5" 360, and has been getting looks at guard and even fullback(!) in spring ball and camp. Look for him all over the place in goal line packages. Right tackle is still a competition between 5th-year senior J'Michael Deane, and junior Jared McGaha, with Heuter possibly in the mix as well.
Another other major area of concern is the defensive backfield. At cornerback, senior Chris L. Rucker has been impressive, and is by far the best player in the secondary; with another strong season he could be a mid-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft. However, both redshirt sophomore Johnny Adams, and true freshman Mylan Hicks, will be counted on to contribute heavily. Behind them, 5th-year senior Marcus Hyde and junior Trenton Robinson will start at strong and free safety, respectively. Both are returning starters--but that's cause for alarm, not reassurance.
Finally, the Spartans got a lot of sacks last year, but a high percentage of them came on the blitz. If the defense is going to be successful, they'll have to get a lot of pressure from the front four--and wow, are they young. Inside, true sophomore Jerel Worthy shows impressive athleticism for his size (6'-3", 305). He'll be paired with another true sophomore, the offensive coordinator's son, Blake Treadwell. Treadwell, at 6'-3", 277, was a 2009 Rivals 4-star center prospect, but now will be trying to get upfield from the other side of the ball. Sophomore DE Tyler Hoover will have to live up to the potential his 6'-7", 265-pound frame promises, and fifth-year senior DE Colin Neely must blossom as he takes over the other end spot. This extremely young defensive line may also get a boost from prize 2010 recruit William Gholston, former Buckeye Vernon Gholston's cousin. Though he likely won't start, Gholston's Rivals 5-star ability, and 6'-7", 250-pound frame, will see time on the field--how much time is likely up to his production.
Looking at the schedule who will be the first major test?
If for no other reasons than it's at home, at night, on national TV, and it's Notre Dame, Notre Dame. I have very real doubts about ND's level of talent and experience on both sides of the ball, but if there's one thing new head coach Brian Kelly has done, it's win, early and frequently, wherever he's gone. There will be an interesting subtext here, too, as Kelly was rumored to have finished second to Dantonio in MSU's last coaching search--and when wasn't offered the Spartans job, he left Central Michigan to take over Dantonio's Cincinnati program. Don't think both coaches, and Spartan fans, aren't aware of the implied career measuring stick this game represents.
What team on the schedule do you fear the most?
I don't think there's a question that Ohio State is the scariest team in the Big Ten this season--but then, they're not on the schedule. I'd say the toughest game to win is going to be the last: a road game in Happy Valley. Not only have the Spartans never beat Penn State on the road, but they'll be the guest of dishonor for a potential JoePa's Last Game. I don't like the odds for a victory out there.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
Hands down, no question, it's WR/KR Keshawn Martin. With a jawdropping 411 yards and 5 TDs on only 18 catches, plus 665 yards and a TD returning kicks, the former high school quarterback enters his junior year as the starting Z receiver. At 5'-11, 185, he's got the explosive game of a slot receiver, but the frame to play outside. Also, that "former high school quarterback" thing comes into play when offensive coordinator Don Treadwell is feeling frisky. In 2009, he threw three times for three completions, 40 yards, and two touchdowns. A very under-the-radar, diamond-in-the-rough-type success story, "Key" is not only a triple threat, he's very well-liked and incredibly easy to root for.
Who is the best offensive player on the team?
I'm going to say Cousins. I'm thinking he has a very, very big junior year in store. He's always displayed precocious understanding of the game, and with his first full offseason as the unquestioned starter, he should be ready to take a big step forward.
Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?
Jones, no question. After Jones? Still Jones.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?
The Spartans are going to need both corners to play up to their potential, but they're also going to need 6'-7", 265-pound sophomore pass rusher Tyler Hoover to immediately apply pressure to the opposing quarterback. True freshman CB Mylan Hicks is getting a lot of buzz as being much more polished than a freshman corner ought to be--and given the Spartans' struggles in coverage last season, any production they get from him will be a great boost. Getting pressure without blitzing, and improving man-to-man coverage on the outside, will go a long way towards fixing the Spartans' pass defense.
Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
Actually, though there's a list of true sophomores that will start or get heavy reps (Caper, Baker, McDonald, Sims), I don't think there's a "newcomer" who fits the bill. Le'Veon Bell may get a lot of goal-line carries, and touted freshman punter Mike Sadler may actually end up winning the placekicking job--which shows you how sorely Brett Swenson will be missed.
Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
There are a wealth of possibilities here--but through strength of bloodline and obvious opportunity, I'll go with true freshman Max Bullough, a third-generation Spartan linebacker. Son of Shane Bullough, nephew of Chuck Bullough, and Grandson of Max Bullough, the Rivals 4-star inside linebacker will likely see the field early and often. Currently listed as the #2 MLB behind Greg Jones, Bullough will see time outside, inside in relief of Jones, or inside as part of a much-rumored new 3-4 package that puts Jones at ROLB.
Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
Partially thanks to the Buckeye-less schedule, and partially thanks to an even-weaker-than-usual crop of non-conference opponents, I see an 8-4 overall record, and 4-4 Big Ten record, as the likely finishing point. I'd be satisfied with that, given the extreme youth of the defense, and the transitional state of the offensive line--not to mention, the suspensions and dismissals that ravaged the skill position depth chart. However, thanks partially to facing Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford in his first two, and having half his skill position players suspended in his third, Mark Dantonio has yet to win a bowl game as coach at MSU. I'd happily trade an 8-win regular season for a 7-win season with a bowl victory, just to get the proverbial monkey off of Dantonio's back--but I don't think I'd trade a third straight victory over Michigan for a bowl win. Beating Michigan for the third time in a row, and second in a row in Ann Arbor, would be . . . well, awesome. Honestly, given the level of talent on the MSU roster, and level of competition in the schedule, anything less than 7-win regular season would have to be considered a disappointment.
Thanks to Ty for taking a break from covering the NFL to talk about college football with us. Make sure to to visit his blog The Lions In Winter and follow him on twitter @lionsinwinter for some always interesting commentary.
Previous Big Ten Previews:
Illinois Fighting Illini
Indiana Hoosiers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Michigan Wolverines
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Northwestern Wildcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Purdue Boilermakers
Wisconsin Badgers
Next Up: Tennessee Volunteers
Previous Pre-Season Previews
ACC- Boston College Eagles, Clemson Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins, North Carolina Tar Heels, North Carolina State Wolfpack Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Big 12- Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Texas Longhorns, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Syracuse Orange, UConn Huskies, USF Bulls, West Virginia Mountaineers
Conference USA- East Carolina Pirates, Houston Cougars, Marshall Thundering Herd, Rice Owls, SMU Mustangs, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
Independent- Army Black Knights, Navy Midshipmen, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
MAC- Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Central Michigan Chippewas, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets
MWC- BYU Cougars, Colorado State Rams, UNLV Rebels, Utah Utes
Pac-10- Arizona Wildcats, Arizona State Sun Devils, California Golden Bears, Oregon Ducks, Oregon State Beavers, Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Washington Huskies, Washington State Cougars
SEC- Alabama Crimson Tide, Auburn Tigers, Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky Wildcats, LSU Tigers, Mississippi Rebels, Mississippi State Bulldogs, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
Sun Belt- FIU Golden Panthers, North Texas Mean Green, Troy Trojans
WAC- Boise State Broncos, Fresno State Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, New Mexico State Aggies
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