There is a 4-way log jam at the top of the Big Ten. Who is the best team?
Alex: Even after tanking against Iowa, Michigan State has a chance to slip into the Rose Bowl. Iowa/Ohio State is the toughest game any of these teams have to face, with Michigan State/Penn State a close second. If Michigan State were to blow the game Wisconsin is Pasadena bound. However to answer the question I still feel Iowa is the best team in the Big 10 in the slimmest of margins over Wisconsin.
J Martin: My instinct is to say Ohio State is still the "best" team by virtue of having the most talent of anybody in the conference. However, they lost convincingly to by far the best team they've played and haven't been challenged otherwise, so I feel like I don't really know this team as well as the others. Conversely, there's a fair amount of empirical evidence supporting Wisconsin as the best of the bunch. They thumped OSU at home, then went on the road and edged out Iowa on the road in consecutive weeks. That's awfully impressive.
Kevin: I've got Wisconsin. They lost to Michigan State but since then they have beat Ohio State and Iowa. Ohio State hasn't beaten anybody and Iowa has 2 losses. If Iowa routes Ohio State I might be persuaded to change my opinion.
Ross: TBD until after the Iowa-Ohio State game, but right now it's either Iowa or Wisconsin. Wisconsin went 2-1 against the other three teams, losing fairly badly to MSU but getting an impressive win over OSU and winning a squeaker over Iowa. Iowa has the most impressive win of the lot with their 37-6 beatdown of MSU, but they also lost that game to Wisconsin. Gun to my head right now I'd probably say Wisconsin by a hair.
RichRod is 6-3 and Ron Zook is 5-4. Will they be retained or shown the door?
Alex: I do not feel as if either coach should be shown the door. They have beaten the teams they should have, and lost to the upper echelon of the Big 10. I have never felt that either team was ready to break out of the middle tier. Illinois can still be an 8-win team as it has a better defense and no offensive juggernauts left in the schedule. Giving Michigan 65 points was just an anomaly, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Fresno State will not touch that figure. Michigan is looking at a 7 or 8 win season. Wisconsin is a loss, Purdue is a win and Ohio State is an unknown. Michigan is tired of getting beaten on by the Buckeyes and they might just make a big splash in the Ohio State pond, which would lock RichRod in for another season.
J Martin: I think both of those guys are going to stick around. Rodriguez probably needs to beat Purdue this weekend just to be sure, but he's at least done the minimum amount necessary to keep his job. Plus, he's got Denard coming back, and he can sell his ability to maximize his talents as opposed to starting over with a new coach and a new offensive philosophy. Zook isn't quite there yet, but I feel pretty good about his odds of beating Minnesota and maybe even going out west and beating Fresno. They should probably just make Paul Petrino head coach, though.
Kevin: I do think they both deserve a chance to come back and build on what they have accomplished so far this year (barring a complete collapse at the end of the year).
Ross: Both will be retained. Rodriguez should win at least seven games this regular season (they ought to beat Purdue this week) and they could certainly win a bowl game for an 8th total win, depending on the match-up. It's also not completely unreasonable that they could pull off an upset of Wisconsin or Ohio State, given their incredibly explosive offense. Either way, 7-8 wins and one of the nation's best offenses should get Rodriguez another year -- provided he agrees to make some changes on defense. Zook will be retained with a few more wins -- which seems like with three more games against Minnesota, Northwestern, and Fresno State. With a bowl game, they could win nine games, which would be remarkable. As it is, a 7-5 regular season seems like a good bet -- and that's good progress after the last two disastrous seasons.
Who is the Player of the Year in the Big 10 so far?
Alex: Denard Robinson from Michigan. This will change by years end but he got Michigan off to a rocketing start which may well help Rich stay in Ann Arbor. Robinson is currently 1st in Rushing, 2nd in Total Offense, 6th in Passing and 7th in scoring. There is not one Big 10 player that can boast such numbers. The fact that he is out with an injury is what will cost him this title by years end, but there is no way to deny him the pole position as we stand in early November.
J Martin: Denard, of course. He's very impressive for a guy who's probably only logged about 6 games worth of field time.
Kevin: From a statistics stand point Denard looks very good but I have a problem picking a "Player of the Year" from a team that is 2-3 in the conference. So it's John Clay of Wisconsin. Leads the league in rushing TDs and is 2nd to only Denard in yards rushing.
Ross: It's Denard Robinson and it's not even close -- 118/186, 1814 passing yards, 13/7 TD/INT, 183 carries, 1349 rushing yards, 12 TD. And he did that despite missing time in every game this season because of injury. He's been simply sensational and the leading reason why Michigan's offense has gone from "good" to "amazing."
Where does Nebraska fit in next year? Will they be the pre-season favorite to win the Big 10?
Alex: Nebraska is going to be a middle of the pack team. I would say 4th at very best but probably around 6th. The Big 12 is not as defensive minded as the Big 10, and Nebraska is not as good now as many think they are. If they get better a solid fourth is in the future, but if they get worse a battle with Michigan or Illinois for 5th and 6th place could be in store for the Huskers. Also note that many of these transitions do not go as planned. The ACC brought Miami, BC, and Virginia Tech into the fold and the one that they WANTED to contend for the title (Miami) did not. VT and BC have had very good success since the transition. In the SEC Arkansas and South Carolina were brought in before the 92 season and neither has won a conference championship. This is not Nebraska walking into an inferior conference, and the Huskers best remember that.
J Martin: They'll be one of the two most talented teams in the conference the moment they set foot through the door. Whether they'll be the favorite to win the conference depends on if Pryor comes back to play his senior year at Ohio State. The Buckeyes with a superstar QB will always get the benefit of a doubt. But Taylor Martinez and that Pelini defense will give them a battle for it, that's for sure.
Kevin: I'm tempted to pick Nebraska first in the Big Ten out of the gate. If Roy Helu Jr wasn't a Jr I probably would. At this point I'm slotting them 2nd or 3rd but they have a legit shot at winning and contending for the Big Ten title next year.
Ross: It's hard to say without knowing exactly what Nebraska returns next year, but based on their play this year, they should be a solid contender -- but not an overwhelming favorite by any means. The schedule -- games against Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State -- will prevent that. They should probably finish in the top five of the league, though.
Who should Minnesota turn to in order to turn their program around?
Alex: You could ask me this for any struggling team in the nation and my first choice will always be Mike Leech. He has done more for the passing game than anyone in the past two or three decades. If he can bring TTech to a nationally recognized level, he can do it for any team. Other choices include Skip Holtz, and Art Briles.
J Martin: There are a lot of positives to the Minnesota job, but the program was run into the ground over the past few years. It now safely qualifies as a "rebuilding job." For this sort of rebuilding job in particular, I'd look for an up-and-coming head coach still looking to make a name for himself a the BCS level that will be willing to really hustle for the program. Someone like Kevin Sumlin from Houston or Al Golden from Temple. Both have already had their names linked and both would be good choices. The last thing you want to do is hire some tired retread head coach or roll the dice on a hotshot assistant with no head coach experience.
Kevin: From an outsiders perspective I see Minnesota as a team that is going to have a really tough time contending for the upper echelon of the Big Ten year in and year out. Because of that I would go the Georgia Tech route. Get Ken Niumatalolo of Navy (23-12). Doing this causes Minnesota to be a difficult game for everybody on their schedule once they get some kids in to run the offense. The Big Ten is having a lot of trouble trying to stop Rich Rod and Michigan just imagine what would happen if you threw in an option type offense for them to have to deal with as well.
Ross: That's tough to answer, since I don't exactly want to see Minnesota improve their fortunes. That said, assuming Minnesota can't get one of the seeming home run hires like Chris Peterson or Gary Patterson or Jim Harbaugh (and they aren't going to get a guy like that), they should focus on a guy who's really hungry to prove himself and who understands the Big Ten well. The last thing they need is a retread like Phil Fulmer or Lou Holtz. Someone like Don Treadwell (the current Michigan State offensive coordinator) might be a good fit.
Showing posts with label Wisconsin Badgers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wisconsin Badgers. Show all posts
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 14-16
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
TWO WEEKS AGO: 4-2
OVERALL 24-12
We took a break last week, but we're back and ready to go this week.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23#6 LSU (7-0, 4-0) AT #4 AUBURN (7-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Another week, another Milacle? Neutral observers (and fans of chaos and random insanity) can only hope so (although Auburn fans probably disagree, as do LSU fans with weak hearts). LSU's improbable undefeated run continues as they face their stiffest test yet -- a road game against top-5 Auburn, better known as The Cam Newton Show, starring Cam Newton, with special guest star Cam Newton. All of which is to say: Cam Newton is really damn good, as evidenced by the fact that through seven game, he's thrown for 1278 yards and 13/5 TD/INT on 80/122 passing and galloped for 860 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. He's a superfreak. And while he hasn't faced any elite defenses yet, he did a pretty good job of carving up (16/21, 158 yards, 2/0 TD/INT, 176 yards rushing, 3 TD) a respectable South Carolina outfit. You have to figure that he's gonna get his against LSU; the real question is what LSU can do to answer him. The Auburn pass defense isn't so hot (see: last week's Arkansas game), but LSU isn't terribly well-equipped to exploit that (outside of stud WR Terrence Tolliver). The unstoppable force that is Cam Newton meets the immovable object that is the Year of the Milacle; call me crazy, but I'm siding with the Caminator in this one.
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, LSU 28
#13 WISCONSIN (6-1, 2-1) AT #15 IOWA (5-1, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)Thanks to the impending Big Ten divisional alignments, this series, which has been one of the most competitive in major college football (Iowa leads 42-41-2), will be going by the wayside to an extent. They'll still play, but not every year and possibly no more than four times in a ten year span. As an Iowa fan, that makes me a little sad, since the Wisconsin games have usually been close, exciting games, although getting an annual game with Nebraska is a pretty solid trade-off, too. Not that this particular game needed any of that "break in the rivalry" juice to make it any bigger than it is, because it's pretty damn big to begin with. Wisconsin restored their Big Ten contender credentials with an impressive 31-18 ass-kicking of then-#1 Ohio State last week, while Iowa went on the road to knock off an explosive Michigan team. Iowa remains one of only three Big Ten teams that's still undefeated (along with Purdue and Michigan State), and they control their own destiny for the league title (assuming someone knocks off Purdue, which seems like a safe bet). Their next three home games are against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State; it's not really hyperbole to argue that the road to the Big Ten crown goes through Iowa City over this next month.
Iowa's played well since their disappointing loss to Arizona last month, but Wisconsin will pose a far different challenge than an inexperienced (and injury-riddled) Penn State team or an electric (but not very physically imposing) Michigan team; Wisconsin is all brawn and beef and very little subtlety. Fortunately, that's precisely the sort of team Iowa has long had success against. Throw in the letdown factor that Wisconsin will inevitably have to battle (see: South Carolina a week ago) and you can see why this will be a very difficult game for them. The key will likely come down to how well they can run the ball on Iowa's defense; if their massive OL can dominate Iowa's talented DL and open up holes for John Clay and James White, it could be a long day for Iowa. On the other hand, if Iowa can keep the Wisco running game mostly in check and force Scott Tolzien to beat them through the air, they should be in very good shape. On offense, Iowa could have trouble establishing a run game with Adam Robinson, but if the OL can provide Ricky Stanzi some decent pass protection (something they've been very good at all year, aside from the end of the Arizona game), he should be able to hit some big plays to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt through the air. I think the Iowa DL makes some big plays and Stanzi has another good day.
THE PICK: IOWA 24, WISCONSIN 14
#16 NEBRASKA (5-1, 1-1) AT #14 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)And now we come to perhaps the biggest "Prove Yourselves" game of the day. Nebraska has to prove that their 5-0 start wasn't a mirage built against dramatically inferior competition and that they can rebound from a gutting loss to Texas in a game that they'd had circled for months. Oklahoma State has to prove that their own 6-0 start isn't just the product of a really favorable schedule and that they can actually beat a good team. Oklahoma State was widely picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South and for fairly understandable reasons: they lost a ton of talent, including multi-year starter Zac Robinson at QB and all-everything WR Dez Bryant. But they returned RB Kendall Hunter (who battled multiple injuries last year on his way to a somewhat mediocre campaign) and they've slotted in QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon to replace Robinson and Bryant and barely skipped a beat. Blackmon, in particular, has been a revelation -- he's leading the NCAA in receiving yards (955) and touchdowns (12) and, yes, he's put up those numbers in just six games. On the other hand, Nebraska will be by far the nastiest defense Okie State has faced this year and they've absolutely stifled passing games all season. The question for Nebraska is how well their own offense can move the ball and score points; Texas completely shut them down and extinguished Taylor Martinez's Heisman buzz. But the Okie State defense is not quite the same thing as a Texas defense coached by Will Muschamp that has two weeks to prepare for the Martinez buzzsaw. When in doubt, side with the elite defense.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 20
NORTH CAROLINA (4-2, 2-1) AT MIAMI (4-2, 2-1) (ESPN2, 6:30pm EST)Before the season, there was some speculation that the ACC Coastal was going to emerge as the toughest division in college football. It had four ranked teams (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami), loads of talent, and high expectations. Midway through the season, we now know that was a lie; the SEC West is unquestionably the top division. But while the ACC Coastal has endured some pratfalls along the way (UNC's ongoing scandals, Virgina Tech's loss to James Madison, Georgia Tech's loss to Kansas, Miami's homefield disemboweling at the hands of Florida State), they've also more or less righted the ship and emerged as solid teams; they're all sitting at 4-2 or better and getting ready for the brutal round robin of games they're going to face against one another over the next month. Despite dealing with massive suspension-induced losses from the ongoing scandals that have engulfed their program, North Carolina has been looking pretty solid after their 0-2 start. Miami has looked unable to compete against foes with talent on par with their own; they lost to Ohio State in a game that was only close because of Ohio State's miserable special teams and got blown off their own field by Florida State. Their four wins have come against Florida A&M, a bad Pitt team, a bad Duke team, and a so-so Clemson team. Suffice to say, I don't really trust them.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA 24, MIAMI 17
#1 OKLAHOMA (6-0, 2-0) AT #11 MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)Oklahoma moved to the top of the initial BCS standings on the back of a 6-0 schedule against a slate of solid opponents (outside of their loss to the Sooners, Oklahoma's opponents are 23-10). The results haven't always been pretty (see: single-digit wins over Utah State, Cincinnati, and Air Force), but wins are the thing and Oklahoma's got 'em so far. Meanwhile, Missouri has quietly gone about its business and also sits at 6-0 and hosting one of the biggest games in their program's history (even with their recent success). Missouri's resume lacks any marquee wins (their best win is... San Diego State? Texas A&M? Illinois?), but they've beaten a collection of teams that has emerged as if not quite "good," at least "perfectly decent." That said, Oklahoma is a whole different beast than any of the teams they've played, especially since they seem to be clicking now. Earlier in the season, they might have screwed around with a not-totally-awful Iowa State team; instead, they obliterated them 52-0, exactly the way an elite team should. That's bad news for Missouri. Strangely, Missouri's success this season has been built on the back of a surprisingly stout defense, rather than the shoot 'em up affairs that constituted their success a few years ago. Can they use that and some homefield mojo to slow down Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and the rest of the Sooner offense? That's tough. The history of the last decade is that Bob Stoops wins big games in the league (it's just those pesky BCS bowl games that give him issues, plus Texas the last few years) and Gary Pinkel rarely does. It's hard to bet against that.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 34, MISSOURI 24
AIR FORCE (5-2, 3-1) AT #5 TCU (7-0, 3-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS College Sports)It's been a while since we've checked in with the non-BCS leagues and this is unquestionably the game of the day from the mid-major ranks. It would have been a match-up of top 25 teams if Air Force hadn't stubbed their toe last week at San Diego State, but as it is, it's still the first quasi-test TCU has faced since the season opener against Oregon State (or Baylor five weeks ago, if you think the Bears are legit). Since their splashy opening week win over Oregon State, TCU has mostly been minding their own business and beating the piss out of teams, especially since they opened up conference play a month ago -- they're 3-0 in Mountain West play and they've outscored their foes by an aggregate score of 103-3 (BYU got a pity FG on them last week). On the other hand, Colorado State, BYU, and Wyoming just aren't any good this year, either. Air Force isn't a great team, but they've emerged as a solid team this year; until last week's slip-up against SDSU, they'd beaten everyone in their path except Oklahoma (who they lost to just 27-24). They also pose a unique challenge for the TCU defense since they run the triple-option. Still, TCU seems too good on both sides of the ball to trip up at hoem against Air Force; this one might be close for a half or so, but TCU should pull away.
THE PICK: TCU 31, AIR FORCE 13
TWO WEEKS AGO: 4-2
OVERALL 24-12
We took a break last week, but we're back and ready to go this week.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23#6 LSU (7-0, 4-0) AT #4 AUBURN (7-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Another week, another Milacle? Neutral observers (and fans of chaos and random insanity) can only hope so (although Auburn fans probably disagree, as do LSU fans with weak hearts). LSU's improbable undefeated run continues as they face their stiffest test yet -- a road game against top-5 Auburn, better known as The Cam Newton Show, starring Cam Newton, with special guest star Cam Newton. All of which is to say: Cam Newton is really damn good, as evidenced by the fact that through seven game, he's thrown for 1278 yards and 13/5 TD/INT on 80/122 passing and galloped for 860 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. He's a superfreak. And while he hasn't faced any elite defenses yet, he did a pretty good job of carving up (16/21, 158 yards, 2/0 TD/INT, 176 yards rushing, 3 TD) a respectable South Carolina outfit. You have to figure that he's gonna get his against LSU; the real question is what LSU can do to answer him. The Auburn pass defense isn't so hot (see: last week's Arkansas game), but LSU isn't terribly well-equipped to exploit that (outside of stud WR Terrence Tolliver). The unstoppable force that is Cam Newton meets the immovable object that is the Year of the Milacle; call me crazy, but I'm siding with the Caminator in this one.
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, LSU 28
#13 WISCONSIN (6-1, 2-1) AT #15 IOWA (5-1, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)Thanks to the impending Big Ten divisional alignments, this series, which has been one of the most competitive in major college football (Iowa leads 42-41-2), will be going by the wayside to an extent. They'll still play, but not every year and possibly no more than four times in a ten year span. As an Iowa fan, that makes me a little sad, since the Wisconsin games have usually been close, exciting games, although getting an annual game with Nebraska is a pretty solid trade-off, too. Not that this particular game needed any of that "break in the rivalry" juice to make it any bigger than it is, because it's pretty damn big to begin with. Wisconsin restored their Big Ten contender credentials with an impressive 31-18 ass-kicking of then-#1 Ohio State last week, while Iowa went on the road to knock off an explosive Michigan team. Iowa remains one of only three Big Ten teams that's still undefeated (along with Purdue and Michigan State), and they control their own destiny for the league title (assuming someone knocks off Purdue, which seems like a safe bet). Their next three home games are against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State; it's not really hyperbole to argue that the road to the Big Ten crown goes through Iowa City over this next month.
Iowa's played well since their disappointing loss to Arizona last month, but Wisconsin will pose a far different challenge than an inexperienced (and injury-riddled) Penn State team or an electric (but not very physically imposing) Michigan team; Wisconsin is all brawn and beef and very little subtlety. Fortunately, that's precisely the sort of team Iowa has long had success against. Throw in the letdown factor that Wisconsin will inevitably have to battle (see: South Carolina a week ago) and you can see why this will be a very difficult game for them. The key will likely come down to how well they can run the ball on Iowa's defense; if their massive OL can dominate Iowa's talented DL and open up holes for John Clay and James White, it could be a long day for Iowa. On the other hand, if Iowa can keep the Wisco running game mostly in check and force Scott Tolzien to beat them through the air, they should be in very good shape. On offense, Iowa could have trouble establishing a run game with Adam Robinson, but if the OL can provide Ricky Stanzi some decent pass protection (something they've been very good at all year, aside from the end of the Arizona game), he should be able to hit some big plays to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt through the air. I think the Iowa DL makes some big plays and Stanzi has another good day.
THE PICK: IOWA 24, WISCONSIN 14
#16 NEBRASKA (5-1, 1-1) AT #14 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)And now we come to perhaps the biggest "Prove Yourselves" game of the day. Nebraska has to prove that their 5-0 start wasn't a mirage built against dramatically inferior competition and that they can rebound from a gutting loss to Texas in a game that they'd had circled for months. Oklahoma State has to prove that their own 6-0 start isn't just the product of a really favorable schedule and that they can actually beat a good team. Oklahoma State was widely picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South and for fairly understandable reasons: they lost a ton of talent, including multi-year starter Zac Robinson at QB and all-everything WR Dez Bryant. But they returned RB Kendall Hunter (who battled multiple injuries last year on his way to a somewhat mediocre campaign) and they've slotted in QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon to replace Robinson and Bryant and barely skipped a beat. Blackmon, in particular, has been a revelation -- he's leading the NCAA in receiving yards (955) and touchdowns (12) and, yes, he's put up those numbers in just six games. On the other hand, Nebraska will be by far the nastiest defense Okie State has faced this year and they've absolutely stifled passing games all season. The question for Nebraska is how well their own offense can move the ball and score points; Texas completely shut them down and extinguished Taylor Martinez's Heisman buzz. But the Okie State defense is not quite the same thing as a Texas defense coached by Will Muschamp that has two weeks to prepare for the Martinez buzzsaw. When in doubt, side with the elite defense.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 20
NORTH CAROLINA (4-2, 2-1) AT MIAMI (4-2, 2-1) (ESPN2, 6:30pm EST)Before the season, there was some speculation that the ACC Coastal was going to emerge as the toughest division in college football. It had four ranked teams (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami), loads of talent, and high expectations. Midway through the season, we now know that was a lie; the SEC West is unquestionably the top division. But while the ACC Coastal has endured some pratfalls along the way (UNC's ongoing scandals, Virgina Tech's loss to James Madison, Georgia Tech's loss to Kansas, Miami's homefield disemboweling at the hands of Florida State), they've also more or less righted the ship and emerged as solid teams; they're all sitting at 4-2 or better and getting ready for the brutal round robin of games they're going to face against one another over the next month. Despite dealing with massive suspension-induced losses from the ongoing scandals that have engulfed their program, North Carolina has been looking pretty solid after their 0-2 start. Miami has looked unable to compete against foes with talent on par with their own; they lost to Ohio State in a game that was only close because of Ohio State's miserable special teams and got blown off their own field by Florida State. Their four wins have come against Florida A&M, a bad Pitt team, a bad Duke team, and a so-so Clemson team. Suffice to say, I don't really trust them.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA 24, MIAMI 17
#1 OKLAHOMA (6-0, 2-0) AT #11 MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)Oklahoma moved to the top of the initial BCS standings on the back of a 6-0 schedule against a slate of solid opponents (outside of their loss to the Sooners, Oklahoma's opponents are 23-10). The results haven't always been pretty (see: single-digit wins over Utah State, Cincinnati, and Air Force), but wins are the thing and Oklahoma's got 'em so far. Meanwhile, Missouri has quietly gone about its business and also sits at 6-0 and hosting one of the biggest games in their program's history (even with their recent success). Missouri's resume lacks any marquee wins (their best win is... San Diego State? Texas A&M? Illinois?), but they've beaten a collection of teams that has emerged as if not quite "good," at least "perfectly decent." That said, Oklahoma is a whole different beast than any of the teams they've played, especially since they seem to be clicking now. Earlier in the season, they might have screwed around with a not-totally-awful Iowa State team; instead, they obliterated them 52-0, exactly the way an elite team should. That's bad news for Missouri. Strangely, Missouri's success this season has been built on the back of a surprisingly stout defense, rather than the shoot 'em up affairs that constituted their success a few years ago. Can they use that and some homefield mojo to slow down Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and the rest of the Sooner offense? That's tough. The history of the last decade is that Bob Stoops wins big games in the league (it's just those pesky BCS bowl games that give him issues, plus Texas the last few years) and Gary Pinkel rarely does. It's hard to bet against that.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 34, MISSOURI 24
AIR FORCE (5-2, 3-1) AT #5 TCU (7-0, 3-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS College Sports)It's been a while since we've checked in with the non-BCS leagues and this is unquestionably the game of the day from the mid-major ranks. It would have been a match-up of top 25 teams if Air Force hadn't stubbed their toe last week at San Diego State, but as it is, it's still the first quasi-test TCU has faced since the season opener against Oregon State (or Baylor five weeks ago, if you think the Bears are legit). Since their splashy opening week win over Oregon State, TCU has mostly been minding their own business and beating the piss out of teams, especially since they opened up conference play a month ago -- they're 3-0 in Mountain West play and they've outscored their foes by an aggregate score of 103-3 (BYU got a pity FG on them last week). On the other hand, Colorado State, BYU, and Wyoming just aren't any good this year, either. Air Force isn't a great team, but they've emerged as a solid team this year; until last week's slip-up against SDSU, they'd beaten everyone in their path except Oklahoma (who they lost to just 27-24). They also pose a unique challenge for the TCU defense since they run the triple-option. Still, TCU seems too good on both sides of the ball to trip up at hoem against Air Force; this one might be close for a half or so, but TCU should pull away.
THE PICK: TCU 31, AIR FORCE 13
Monday, August 23, 2010
Big Ten Preview
2009 Standings
Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 (7-1)
Iowa Hawkeyes 11-2 (6-2)
Penn State Nittany Lions 11-2 (6-2)
Wisconsin Badgers 10-3 (5-3)
Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 (5-3)
Michigan State Spartans 6-7 (4-4)
Purdue Boilermakers 5-7 (4-4)
Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 (3-5)
Illinois Fighting Illini 3-9 (2-6)
Michigan Wolverines 5-7 (1-7)
Indiana Hoosiers 4-8 (1-7)
Returning Leaders: Passing
Ben Chappell, Indiana, Sr (268 of 428 for 2942 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin, Sr (211 of 328 for 2705 yds, 16 TD, 11 INT)
Kirk Cousins, Mich St, Jr (198 of 328 for 2680 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Adam Weber, Minnesota, Sr (191 of 267 for 2582 yds, 13 TD, 15 INT)
Ricky Stanzi, Iowa, Sr (171 of 304 for 2417 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
John Clay, Wisconsin, Jr (287 carries for 1517 yds, 18 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Evan Royster, Penn State, Sr (205 carries for 1169 yds, 6 TD, 5.7 ypc)
Ralph Bolden, Purdue, Jr (200 carries for 935 yds, 9 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Adam Robinson, Iowa, Soph (181 carries for 834 yds, 5 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Terrelle Pryor, Ohio St, Jr (162 carries for 779 yds, 7 TD, 4.8 ypc)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Keith Smith, Purdue, Sr (91 rec for 1100 yds, 6 TD, 7.6 rec/game)
Tandon Doss, Indiana, Jr (77 rec for 962 yds, 5 TD, 6.4 rec/game)
Damarlo Belcher, Indiana, Jr (61 rec for 770 yds, 5 TD, 5.1 rec/game)
DeVier Posey, Ohio St, Jr (60 rec for 828 yds, 8 TD, 4.6 rec/game)
Nick Toon, Wisconsin, Jr (54 rec for 805 yds, 4 TD, 4.2 rec/game)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (154 total, 11.8 tackles/game)
Ross Homan, Ohio St, Sr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Ian Thomas, Indiana, Jr, LB (95 total, 7.9 tackles/game)
Brian Rolle, Ohio St, Sr, LB (94 total, 7.2 tackles/game)
Eric Gordon, Mich St, Sr, LB (93 total, 7.1 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Adrian Clayborn, Iowa, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue, Sr, DE (11.0)
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (9.0)
Cameron Heyward, Sr, DE (6.5)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Tyler Sash, Iowa, Jr, SS (6 interceptions)
Ross Homan, Ohio State, Sr, LB (5)
Brett Greenwood, Iowa, Jr, FS (3)
Brian Peters, Northwestern, Jr, SS (3)
Kyle Theret, Minnesota, Jr, S (3)
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 10 WITH THE ZEALOTS
Illinois Fighting Illini
Chris (Prediction: #10): Bloop de bloop, de bweedley deep de deep de derk. Ron Zook is A COACH! For those of you who don't watch South Park and didn't understand the Rob Schneider joke reference, you're missing out. But the point is, Zook is a person masquerading as a coach. The only thing that we have to do now is figure out how long the act is in town. Newsflash: It's over at the end of this year. Also, I'm not even going to explain why I think the Illini will finish in 10th. It's Ron Zook isn't it? That's explanation enough.
J Martin (Prediction: #9): I never bought into the Juice Williams hype, but even I was astounded at just how badly the Illini fell on their face in 2009. I’m even more astounded that Ron Zook still has a job. I guess you can line up Illinois next to Maryland and Colorado as the schools that don’t care about football. But they’re still going to field a team this year, so I guess I’ll talk about them. It’s looking like a total reboot on the offensive side of the ball with new OC Paul Petrino needing to find a new QB, a new top receiver, and a consistent rushing attack, which they’ve lacked since Rashard Mendenhall bolted. (I really wish Daniel Dufrene had panned out, if only because my “Dufrene! Party of 6!” TD call was a big party hit.) Defensively, they’re a really underwhelming group, even though they return a fair amount of experience. Basically, it’s just a lame duck team. And they have two lower division teams on their schedule, so they’ll have to win 7 to get to a bowl. And that ain’t happening. I think everybody here will be through and waiting for the new coach by November.
Ross (Prediction: #9): The good news is that they return 3/5 of the offensive line and one of the league's most underrated running backs (Mikel LeShoure) and don't have to deal with the Juice Williams Experience anymore. On the other hand, they're on yet another new offensive coordinator and Ron Zook is still there. There are a few more faces back on defense, but really the last two years have made it crystal clear that it doesn't matter how much returning talent the Illini have; so long as Ron Zook is there, he'll find a way to screw it up. Skipping Iowa and Wisconsin on the schedule is a plus, but a three-game stretch against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State could crush their season.
Indiana Hoosiers
Chris (Prediction: #9): Indiana should improve gradually on offense as the year goes along, bringing back a lot of key pieces to the puzzle in the way of skill position players and just enough on the offensive line. As for defense...yeah, well...there's always next year.
J Martin (Prediction: #10): Indiana finished 1-7 at the bottom of the conference for the second straight season in 2009, but if just a handful of plays had gone the other way, they could have easily been 3-5 and playing in a bowl game. Because of that, they seem to have the most upward momentum of the worst programs in the conference. Unfortunately, when you’re at the level of an Indiana, progress isn’t always a straight line because you don’t have the talent on deck to pick up where the departing seniors left off. This year, Indiana will be feeling that the most on the defensive side of the ball, where they lose 9 of their top 13 contributors from last season. Not that the Hoosiers were world-beaters on D last year, but they were experienced, plucky guys who helped Indiana win the turnover battle in 7 of their 12 games (while their quarterback was busy throwing 15 interceptions). So its definitely a rebuilding year on that side of the ball. And the offense is simply not good enough to make up the difference. Their 4 patsy non-conference games should allow them to match 09’s win total, but beyond that, the going gets tough. This won’t be the year they take a step forward.
Ross (Prediction: #10): Indiana should have a very strong offense, considering they return nine starters -- everyone but a pair of linemen. QB Ben Chappell was pretty productive a year ago and he has all of his primary targets back again this year. So that's good. But an already bad defense returns only four starters and loses virtually all of its best players, too. That's a problem. They'd better get their wins early, too, since the schedule has them close with games against Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue. A year ago Indiana was good enough to hang in there for a while against Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State; they were also bad enough to choke away all those games and get destroyed, 47-7, by Indiana. Their offense might be good enough to steal a game or two in the Big Ten, but they're going to need to score a lot of points to overcome their leaky defense.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Chris (Prediction: #2): My bonehead prediction of 2009: "Iowa does not stand a chance against GT's triple option in the bowl game. They're going to get throttled." Whoops...looks like I've got some splainin' to do on that one. 1. I was wrong. 2. Did I mention I was wrong? Like WAY wrong? So yeah, my bad in my failed attempt to pick against the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz is an amazing program coach. He might not be flashy or in a league of his own, but he knows how to year in and year out put a good football team on the field. Defensively they should be among the nation's best again, returning 8 starters on that side of the ball. The concern is on offense, while returning Ricky Stanzi and some skill position guys, they have a completely revamped O-line. This team was a couple of injuries away from an undefeated season, although if you look at the first game, this team was a point away from being beaten at home by Northern Iowa too. So I'm not ready to call a team that loses so much from a sub-par offense a world-beater. The truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes...and that's why I think that Iowa will finish second to Ohio State and its arsenal of weapons on offense.
J Martin (Prediction: #2): I love this Iowa team. On defense, they look set to pick up right where they left off in 2009. Yes, they lost two very good linebackers and a good cornerback, but virtually everyone else who made a significant contribution to last year's unit is back. On offense, I expect them to be better than in 09. The offensive line doesn't look as dominant on paper, but OL's are Kirk Ferentz's specialty, so I have no doubt he'll put a quality line on the field. The main area where they need improvement is turnovers, particularly Ricky Stanzi's interceptions. If he can cut his 09 number in half, the Hawkeyes will be tough to beat. And I think he can do that. I think when presumptive running back starter Jewel Hampton went down with a preseason injury, thrusting that job into the hands of a couple of freshmen, it put the offense into a situation they weren't entirely comfortable with. Namely, it required Stanzi to make more plays than maybe he needed to at that point in his development. This year Hampton is back, and those freshmen (who didn't play half bad as the season progressed) now have a year's worth of experience under their belts. That's going to create more of a comfort zone for Stanzi and allow him to be more efficient with the football. I have this team below Ohio State right now, but just by a hair. The schedule definitely plays into their favor as they get their top 3 conference opponents at home. Iowa just needs to prove to me that they can win the lesser games consistently, like say against Northwestern, right along with the big games before I ever put them at #1.
Ross (Prediction: #2): Everything hinges on the development of the offensive line and the team's ability to stay healthy. The defense looks absolutely loaded and the offense is strong at the skill positions. But if guys start going down, there isn't a huge amount of depth at most positions. And the offensive line is still a big question mark, given that they have to work in three new starters who haven't had a lot of experience thus far. Still, if the injury gods smile upon them and the offensive line develops into a respectable outfit, this is a team built to go far. They get all of their toughest foes at home and the schedule is fairly manageable. On the other hand, their history against OSU is absolutely miserable, which makes it hard to pick them over OSU for now.
Michigan Wolverines
Chris (Prediction: #5): So Michigan started the season 5-2, and because of his stellar play everyone was lapping up the Wolverines and true freshman quarterback Tate Forcier. EHHHHHHHHH! Wrong answer. Survey says...the Wolves lost their remaining five games, and with exception of Purdue, they weren't close. So Michigan, what's up? Let's talk. For one, I have absolute faith that Forcier is a gamer and that if anyone is going to elevate that program back to where it was, it's him. The way he played as a true freshman coming into a situation that bad and with such moxie, WOW! Matt Barkley played like dog excrement compared to Forcier, especially considering that Barkley had skill position talent galore around him. Also, how long can Rich Rod and Michigan really be bad? I mean really? The guy's a winner. He may do it illegally, but he does win. The question is how will the ongoing NCAA probe affect the Maize and Blue? I think this is the year though, all things considered, that Michigan gets it right. I'm either way wrong or way right on this one. Here's to hoping I'm way right that one of college football's true traditional powerhouses comes back strong. Even Buckeyes fans want to see the rivalry game actually be somewhat competitive again!
J Martin (Prediction: #7): I’ll admit it’s really difficult for me to get a handle on Michigan this year for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t know who the quarterback is going to be. RichRod’s offense is totally dependent on who the trigger man is. In his heart of hearts, I think he wants Denard Robinson to be the QB because he’s the most dangerous runner of the two, but Forcier has shown more as a passer and doesn’t seem to be going away (unless he gets his feelings hurt and transfers, as rumored). If Forcier is the QB, Michigan is probably going to be in the .500 range, like last year, and maybe go to a bowl. If Robinson is the QB, they could go anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3. Secondly, I just don’t know how this team is going to respond to the axe hanging over Rodriguez’s neck. Are they going to rally around him and fight for a bowl, or are they going to quit and wait to start over with the new coach? Last year began under a similar cloud, and they started out inspired, but then they seemed to give up after dropping games to Michigan State and Iowa. If this year’s team doesn’t have more heart, this season could get REALLY ugly, because I think UConn has the team to show up in Ann Arbor and clean their clocks in week 1. I'm kinda on the fence, but I hate the 3-3-5 defense that Rich is bringing back, so I guess I'll be on the side of pessimism.
Ross (Prediction: #7): It seems increasingly unlikely that the Michigan defense will be able to stop a soul in 2010 (especially through the air), which means that the offense is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting to win games. Luckily, they return a pretty fair amount of talent on offense (3/5 of the OL, QB, a pair of receivers, and a tight end) and showed signs last year of evolving into the sort of high-powered offense that's been a staple of most Rodriguez-coached teams. But that defense... that defense is scary (and not in a good way), especially the secondary, which is an utter wasteland after multiple injuries and defections of highly-ranked talent. The schedule doesn't do them any favors, either; four of their final six Big Ten games are against Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.
Michigan State Spartans
Chris (Prediction: #6): My logic here? Good coach, okay team...not as good as at least four of the teams ahead of them in the Big Ten (may be faltering on my Michigan prediction already), but is definitely not as bad as the 5 teams below. Middle of the road Michigan State can knock people off, or lose to questionable teams. But in the end it all equals out and the Spartans should improve at least one game from their 6-7 season a year ago. You know they should really make some kind of rule with 6-6 bowl teams that if they lose and go 6-7 than they should have to play another 6-7 team that lost and the winner gets back to .500. The loser is disqualified from playing in a bowl the next year because there is no way a team like that should have ever played in a bowl in the first place. Who's with me?
J Martin (Prediction: #6): The Spartans suffered somewhat of a let down in 2009. Despite some turnover on offense, the defense was expected to carry the team to another 9 or 10 win season. But early in the year, the secondary completely imploded, and MSU ended up with one of the worst pass defenses in the conference. That exacerbated issues with a young offense, and the next thing you know, they’re struggling to make a bowl game. Well, the defense is slightly less experienced, with many of their losses coming in the secondary. Your first instinct might be to expect another bad year, but my opinion is that when you’re as bad as the Spartans were in 09, a bunch of fresh faces can be just what you need. I’m looking for a big rebound, led by returning senior linebacker Greg Jones. I also expect more out of the offense now that they’ve settled in on one quarterback and all those freshman running backs have had a year to mature in the system. They still won’t be ready to compete with the best in the conference, but they should return to 8-9 win form.
Ross (Prediction: #5): MSU looks a lot like Iowa on offense: lots of returning talent at the skill positions and a lot of question marks along the offensive line. QB Kirk Cousins might be the best quarterback in the Big Ten and he has a slew of returning targets to throw to, which should lead to some impressive passing stats for MSU. They also have some talented RBs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker; they saw a lot of action last year as true freshmen and that experience should serve them well this year. Still, all of that offensive firepower could be for naught if the new look offensive line can't open holes for the backs and keep Cousins upright -- and that's a definite concern for now. The defense is stacked at LB with veterans Greg Jones and Eric Gordon and newcomers William Gholston and Max Bullough. On the other hand, they'll need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and in the secondary. Still, if they get some quality play from the newcomers in the defense and the offensive line gels quickly, this could be a surprise team in the Big Ten.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chris (Prediction: #11): Gone are the days of Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney rushing for 1,000 yards in the same year (in fact gone are those days in the NFL too, apparently...despite the fact that they are on different teams). Minnesota's offense will improve by way of returning a whopping 9 starters (which isn't saying much, it's hard to get worse than 109th in offense...you have to try pretty hard to do that). YAY! Whew. Wait, but they're still ranked 11th in the Big 10 (that sounds funny even to this day, I know, I chuckle)? So what's the bad news? Oh yeah, they return two on a D that was below average a year ago, including none in their front 7. YIKES! All Gophers fans can do is sit back and think about the days of their dreadlock tandems of running backs. Those were the days...
J Martin (Prediction: #11): It’s going to be a rough year in Minneapolis. I haven’t thought much of the Gophers for the past two seasons, but they’ve managed enough hocus pocus with the schedule to get bowl eligible in both. This season, the schedule is brutal, as they play USC and draw the consensus top 4 teams in the conference, and four of those games are at home (basically wasting home field advantage on teams they have no chance of beating). Even if they were good, they’d struggle. But despite returning nearly the entire offense, they lose their best player by far (Eric Decker), and Adam Weber is not a good quarterback at all. The defense was actually respectable last season, but they return only 2 starters in 2010. Minnesota has a nice new stadium. After this season, it might be time for the administration there to bring in a coach who can field a football team to match it.
Ross (Prediction: #11): As it stands, they're slated to return all of two starters and they'll be breaking in a new defensive coordinator, too. Expecting the Gophers to stop too many teams is a fool's errand. On the bright side, they return nine on offense, including fourth-year starter Adam Weber at QB. Of course, Weber is also working under his third or fourth different offensive coordinator, has regressed each year he's been there, and is without his safety blanket target (Eric Decker). Aside from Decker, they also return most of his top receivers, their leading rusher from a year ago, and their entire offensive line. But like Zook, Tim Brewster has managed the art of getting less out of his team and it's hard not to see them crumbling under the weight of a tough schedule (they entertain USC, Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa at home this year).
Northwestern Wildcats
Chris (Prediction: #7): Take your pick. It will be Purdue or Northwestern. Just like the middle of the Pac-10, this is truly hard to decide. Neither team brings much back, but Northwestern brings back 12 starters off of a surprising 8-5 team vs. Purdue bringing back 10 starters off of a decidedly average team a year ago. It's a fight to the finish, the only difference is, the winner only wins 7th place.
J Martin (Prediction: #5): Pat Fitzgerald has a really good thing going at Northwestern. And while I don’t see his program ever breaking through to contend for the Big 10 title, I also don’t see why he can’t keep winning about 8 games a year. He accomplishes the things that Bobby Johnson used to get credit for almost doing at Vanderbilt. The past 2 years, his Wildcats have finished 4th in the conference at 5-3. He generates this kind of consistency because his teams are always going to be focused around playing sound defense. This season, they return their entire starting linebacker unit. Their biggest challenge will be replacing the underrated Mike Kafka at QB, but presumptive starter Dan Persa gave Kafka a run for his money last off-season, and as a junior, he’s very familiar with the system. Their schedule divides neatly into two halves, and Northwestern could easily be 6-0 at the break. That could make them an extremely dangerous opponent to face late in the year, because they’ll already be bowl eligible and playing with house money, as they say. Revenge-minded Iowa should be wary heading into Evanston.
Ross (Prediction: #6): On the flipside of Michigan State, you have a team like Northwestern, who returns 4/5 of their offensive line but will be breaking in new starters at QB and two of the three starting WR spots. Still, Northwestern has usually done a fine job of finding unheralded players to come in and play at a high level at those spots. The defense features a lot of returning experience at LB and CB, but will be fielding new faces in the secondary and along the defensive line (where some newbie has the unpleasant task of trying to replace stud DE Corey Wooten). But Fitzgerald has proven himself to be an excellent coach, so it's not wise to bet against them too much. They'll probably lose to a team or two that they shouldn't, but they'll also beat a team or two that they shouldn't and will probably be a pesky out for each team on their schedule.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Chris (Prediction: #1): The Buckeyes are the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 10 and possibly even exorcise their demons by winning a national championship (though the Buckeyes do NOT want to see an SEC team meeting them there. Oh please, oh please, oh pretty please football gods! We knew you'd understand, we just can't beat the best of the best). Terrelle Pryor has been lambasted from the beginning of his sophomore year, the time in which fans thought he should have arrived and reached his potential. Instead, Pryor took baby steps until the Rose Bowl and then blew up. Fluke? I don't know, but I doubt it. I think some part of that guy has turned the corner. We'll see how much Pryor has grown when the Bucks go to Iowa for what will probably decide the conference champion. The defense lost some key cogs, but when does a Jim Tressel coached team not play good D? And they will again. Also running back is a concern. Nobody screams the next Beanie Wells. But I think Ohio State is a safe bet to at least take the Big 10, although I'm choosing not to speculate beyond that right now.
J Martin (Prediction: #1): I vacillated back and forth between the Buckeyes and Iowa as to which team was the best in the conference. It was a tough call. Both are loaded. Ultimately, I went with Ohio State. There isn't much negative you can say about this team on paper. They return a wealth of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. The only real question is which Terrelle Pryor is going to show up this season. The one from the Rose Bowl, or the one that had people calling for him to be moved to receiver? My guess is that he ends up close to Rose Bowl form. And if that's the case, the only thing standing in their way is a conference schedule that sees them go on the road to face their two biggest challenges this season, Iowa and Wisconsin. That almost tipped me in favor of the Hawkeyes. But then I remembered: these guys have developed into Big 10 road warriors over the past few years. Barring their epic brain fart against Purdue last year, the Buckeyes haven't lost a Big 10 away game since losing to Penn State in 2005. Kirk Ferentz does a great job at Iowa, but Jim Tressel has this program humming along on a much higher level than anybody else in the Big 10, and they know how to take care of business. They should win their 6th straight conference title, and maybe play in the BCS title game for the 4th time in the past decade if they can avoid another early season big game letdown against The U. They will then, of course, lose.
Ross (Prediction: #1): They return nine on offense and six on defense and have been so consistently dominant in the Big Ten that it's difficult to pick against them, no matter how much I'd like to. If the progress Pryor showed in the Rose Bowl was more than a one-game blip, the offense should be truly terrifying, as they'll have a dangerous passing game to go along with one of the nation's best rushing attacks. The defense has some key holes to fill (mainly, three spots along the defensive line), but OSU has done a better job of reloading than anyone else in the league, especially on defense... so it would be foolish to bet against them. Particularly since the guys they have starting this year are not fresh-faced newbies; they've seen a fair amount of action. The main potential red flag from them is the schedule, which has them facing their two toughest league rivals, Iowa and Wisconsin, on the the road.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Chris (Prediction: #4): The Big 10 is really a 3-team race (sorry if this is the first you've heard of this JoePa), but Penn State is right behind that group. Kevin Newsome should be a capable replacement for Darryl Clark in the athleticism department, but Clark brought such intangibles and leadership to the position that I think it is unlikely to expect Newsome to come right in and resume that role. In fact, he may never reach that level. To be honest, I don't know whether to be more worried about the offense or the defense. Neither will be bad, but neither will be spectacular. Because of Evan Royster I will go with the D. Royster's workload will probably increase, which is cause for concern because his statline DRAMATICALLY decreased a year ago, to the tune of 500 or so yards. However, I myself am in love with Royster's game, and I think he'll recover this year, posting equally as gaudy stats as two years ago.
J Martin (Prediction: #4): On paper, this looks like a very mediocre Penn State team to me. They have the schedule to still win 9 games and play in a nice bowl, but I don’t think they’re a threat to Iowa or Ohio State. Obviously, the main problem on offense is quarterback. They have no one with any experience. They have a couple of incoming freshmen who are promising (I hear Robert Bolden is impressing in camp), but knowing Joe Paterno, he’s going to go with the most steady upper classman until the wheels fall off. Of course, the “upper classmen” in question are sophomores, so regardless, the passing game is going to be WAY down. That means it’s going to fall to Evan Royster to carry the offense on the ground. And while he’s a talented guy, that’s going to be somewhat of a new role for him, and its difficult to say if he’s cut out for it. Defensively, they should be typically stout, which will be their saving grace. However, with the loss of their top 3 linebackers, as well as Jared Odrick on the line, they may not be an elite defense in 2010.
Ross (Prediction: #4): PSU returns plenty on offense (the majority of the offensive line, all their top receivers, and Evan Royster and Stephon Green at RB)... but they have a major question mark at QB, where they still haven't settled on a starter to replace Daryll Clark. That's definitely a concern, especially since they have to go on the road to Alabama and Iowa in their first five weeks. The defense returns just five and will need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and a trio of new linebackers. Fortunately, aside from OSU, no one in the Big Ten has done a better job of just reloading on defense than PSU; they have some highly-talented players waiting in the wings to step in and start at LB and along the defensive line. Really, the thing that damages this team the most might be the schedule: they should be a team that improves as the season progresses, but their schedule features some of their toughest games at the start of the season. That could be difficult to overcome.
Purdue Boilermakers
Chris (Prediction: #8): Take a look at Northwestern for my logic. If I'm wrong, see Robert Marve as the reason.
J Martin (Prediction: #8): The Boilermakers have been a better team than their overall record might have led you to believe the past 2 years. In 2009, they actually went 4-4 in the Big 10, and, if not for a slip-up against Northern Illinois, they would have gone to a bowl. This year’s team looks very similar to the past two, in the sense that they don’t wow you with their number of returning starters, but they’re not dreadfully undermanned either. So with their home-and-home series with Oregon coming to an end, and a much lesser opponent coming on, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t achieve bowl eligibility. They should win at least 3 of their non-conference games (Notre Dame is a toss-up), and they get three key conference “swing” games at home (Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana). The x-factor here will be new quarterback Robert Marve. If he finally has his head on straight, look out. He has an excellent receiving target in Keith Smith, and they can make this offense dangerous.
Ross (Prediction: #8): Robert Marve is a reason for hope as he takes over the QB position (unless you remember him imploding at Miami two years ago, although Purdue fans would rather you didn't mention that), and he has some good targets to throw to (particularly WR Keith Smith)... if the rebuilt offensive line (2/5 starters back) can give him enough protection to find them. RB is a possible trouble spot; Ralph Bolden emerged as a real threat in the Big Ten a year ago, but suffered a significant knee injury in spring practice and may not be ready to go this fall. The defense features one bona fide star (DE Ryan Kerrigan, the best player in the Big Ten that no one talks about) and a number of returning starters in the front seven (3/4 of the defensive line, all three linebackers)... but a host of new faces in the secondary. So Purdue could be in line for quite a few shootouts in 2010; we'll see just how far Marve has come from his Miami days.
Wisconsin Badgers
Chris (Prediction: #3): Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema has filled in seamlessly for Barry Alvarez as the Badgers head coach. He maintained the power running game that his predecessor thrived on, with big backs like P.J. Hill and now John Clay. Expect the Badgers to be pretty amazing offensively, where they return every starter but their fullback. Defensively it might be a work in progress, but the offense has such firepower and can control the clock with their style of play that I don't think the D's flaws will stand out. Wisconsin was only one of 6 teams that averaged 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing a season ago. Expect them to be in that category again, and given a slip up by one of the two above them, they could be seeing roses.
J Martin (Prediction: #3): The recipe for success remains the same as it has for the past 15 or 20 years: take a big, fat running back, line him up behind an even bigger, fatter offensive line, and just run over people. This season, the Badgers have an incredibly experienced big, fat offensive line (109 total starts), and return the big, fat Big 10 offensive player of the year, not to mention another good one in Montee Ball. In fact, they return just about everyone of consequence on offense except Garrett Graham. Scott Tolzien wasn’t overly impressive at QB last year, but he came on strong towards the end, and this team doesn’t need him to be more than an effective game manager. If he cuts his interception total in half, Wisconsin will be tough to beat. They have a very easy non-conference schedule and a favorable conference slate, including Ohio State at home. The only trick is that they have to go to Iowa to play the very next week. But if they take care of business against the Buckeyes at home, they could very well ride that momentum to a victory over the Hawkeyes. Of course…I could also see them going into the tank against Iowa if they lose to OSU. So that’s the critical stretch. 10 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team.
Ross (Prediction: #3): The Badgers are loaded on offense, especially along the line where they return all five starters. Those five behemoths should open plenty of holes for John Clay and Montee Ball and give Scott Tolzien time to hit open receivers on play-action passes. On the other hand, their defense returns only six starters (including just one on the defensive line) and they've been banged up in preseason camp, with two of their best returning defenders (LB Chris Borland and SS Jay Valai) missing time with injuries. The schedule is also a little nasty, as they get Ohio State and Iowa back-to-back. Bielema's done a solid job of beating the teams he should beat at Wisco, but he's struggled to get over the hump and beat the top dogs.
CFBZ Predicted Big Ten 2010 Standings
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Iowa Hawkeyes
3. Wisconsin Badgers
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Northwestern Wildcats
7. Michigan Wolverines
8. Purdue Boilermakers
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Indiana Hoosiers
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 (7-1)
Iowa Hawkeyes 11-2 (6-2)
Penn State Nittany Lions 11-2 (6-2)
Wisconsin Badgers 10-3 (5-3)
Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 (5-3)
Michigan State Spartans 6-7 (4-4)
Purdue Boilermakers 5-7 (4-4)
Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 (3-5)
Illinois Fighting Illini 3-9 (2-6)
Michigan Wolverines 5-7 (1-7)
Indiana Hoosiers 4-8 (1-7)
Returning Leaders: Passing
Ben Chappell, Indiana, Sr (268 of 428 for 2942 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin, Sr (211 of 328 for 2705 yds, 16 TD, 11 INT)
Kirk Cousins, Mich St, Jr (198 of 328 for 2680 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Adam Weber, Minnesota, Sr (191 of 267 for 2582 yds, 13 TD, 15 INT)
Ricky Stanzi, Iowa, Sr (171 of 304 for 2417 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
John Clay, Wisconsin, Jr (287 carries for 1517 yds, 18 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Evan Royster, Penn State, Sr (205 carries for 1169 yds, 6 TD, 5.7 ypc)
Ralph Bolden, Purdue, Jr (200 carries for 935 yds, 9 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Adam Robinson, Iowa, Soph (181 carries for 834 yds, 5 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Terrelle Pryor, Ohio St, Jr (162 carries for 779 yds, 7 TD, 4.8 ypc)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Keith Smith, Purdue, Sr (91 rec for 1100 yds, 6 TD, 7.6 rec/game)
Tandon Doss, Indiana, Jr (77 rec for 962 yds, 5 TD, 6.4 rec/game)
Damarlo Belcher, Indiana, Jr (61 rec for 770 yds, 5 TD, 5.1 rec/game)
DeVier Posey, Ohio St, Jr (60 rec for 828 yds, 8 TD, 4.6 rec/game)
Nick Toon, Wisconsin, Jr (54 rec for 805 yds, 4 TD, 4.2 rec/game)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (154 total, 11.8 tackles/game)
Ross Homan, Ohio St, Sr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Ian Thomas, Indiana, Jr, LB (95 total, 7.9 tackles/game)
Brian Rolle, Ohio St, Sr, LB (94 total, 7.2 tackles/game)
Eric Gordon, Mich St, Sr, LB (93 total, 7.1 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Adrian Clayborn, Iowa, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue, Sr, DE (11.0)
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (9.0)
Cameron Heyward, Sr, DE (6.5)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Tyler Sash, Iowa, Jr, SS (6 interceptions)
Ross Homan, Ohio State, Sr, LB (5)
Brett Greenwood, Iowa, Jr, FS (3)
Brian Peters, Northwestern, Jr, SS (3)
Kyle Theret, Minnesota, Jr, S (3)
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 10 WITH THE ZEALOTS
Illinois Fighting Illini
Chris (Prediction: #10): Bloop de bloop, de bweedley deep de deep de derk. Ron Zook is A COACH! For those of you who don't watch South Park and didn't understand the Rob Schneider joke reference, you're missing out. But the point is, Zook is a person masquerading as a coach. The only thing that we have to do now is figure out how long the act is in town. Newsflash: It's over at the end of this year. Also, I'm not even going to explain why I think the Illini will finish in 10th. It's Ron Zook isn't it? That's explanation enough.
J Martin (Prediction: #9): I never bought into the Juice Williams hype, but even I was astounded at just how badly the Illini fell on their face in 2009. I’m even more astounded that Ron Zook still has a job. I guess you can line up Illinois next to Maryland and Colorado as the schools that don’t care about football. But they’re still going to field a team this year, so I guess I’ll talk about them. It’s looking like a total reboot on the offensive side of the ball with new OC Paul Petrino needing to find a new QB, a new top receiver, and a consistent rushing attack, which they’ve lacked since Rashard Mendenhall bolted. (I really wish Daniel Dufrene had panned out, if only because my “Dufrene! Party of 6!” TD call was a big party hit.) Defensively, they’re a really underwhelming group, even though they return a fair amount of experience. Basically, it’s just a lame duck team. And they have two lower division teams on their schedule, so they’ll have to win 7 to get to a bowl. And that ain’t happening. I think everybody here will be through and waiting for the new coach by November.
Ross (Prediction: #9): The good news is that they return 3/5 of the offensive line and one of the league's most underrated running backs (Mikel LeShoure) and don't have to deal with the Juice Williams Experience anymore. On the other hand, they're on yet another new offensive coordinator and Ron Zook is still there. There are a few more faces back on defense, but really the last two years have made it crystal clear that it doesn't matter how much returning talent the Illini have; so long as Ron Zook is there, he'll find a way to screw it up. Skipping Iowa and Wisconsin on the schedule is a plus, but a three-game stretch against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State could crush their season.
Indiana Hoosiers
Chris (Prediction: #9): Indiana should improve gradually on offense as the year goes along, bringing back a lot of key pieces to the puzzle in the way of skill position players and just enough on the offensive line. As for defense...yeah, well...there's always next year.
J Martin (Prediction: #10): Indiana finished 1-7 at the bottom of the conference for the second straight season in 2009, but if just a handful of plays had gone the other way, they could have easily been 3-5 and playing in a bowl game. Because of that, they seem to have the most upward momentum of the worst programs in the conference. Unfortunately, when you’re at the level of an Indiana, progress isn’t always a straight line because you don’t have the talent on deck to pick up where the departing seniors left off. This year, Indiana will be feeling that the most on the defensive side of the ball, where they lose 9 of their top 13 contributors from last season. Not that the Hoosiers were world-beaters on D last year, but they were experienced, plucky guys who helped Indiana win the turnover battle in 7 of their 12 games (while their quarterback was busy throwing 15 interceptions). So its definitely a rebuilding year on that side of the ball. And the offense is simply not good enough to make up the difference. Their 4 patsy non-conference games should allow them to match 09’s win total, but beyond that, the going gets tough. This won’t be the year they take a step forward.
Ross (Prediction: #10): Indiana should have a very strong offense, considering they return nine starters -- everyone but a pair of linemen. QB Ben Chappell was pretty productive a year ago and he has all of his primary targets back again this year. So that's good. But an already bad defense returns only four starters and loses virtually all of its best players, too. That's a problem. They'd better get their wins early, too, since the schedule has them close with games against Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue. A year ago Indiana was good enough to hang in there for a while against Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State; they were also bad enough to choke away all those games and get destroyed, 47-7, by Indiana. Their offense might be good enough to steal a game or two in the Big Ten, but they're going to need to score a lot of points to overcome their leaky defense.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Chris (Prediction: #2): My bonehead prediction of 2009: "Iowa does not stand a chance against GT's triple option in the bowl game. They're going to get throttled." Whoops...looks like I've got some splainin' to do on that one. 1. I was wrong. 2. Did I mention I was wrong? Like WAY wrong? So yeah, my bad in my failed attempt to pick against the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz is an amazing program coach. He might not be flashy or in a league of his own, but he knows how to year in and year out put a good football team on the field. Defensively they should be among the nation's best again, returning 8 starters on that side of the ball. The concern is on offense, while returning Ricky Stanzi and some skill position guys, they have a completely revamped O-line. This team was a couple of injuries away from an undefeated season, although if you look at the first game, this team was a point away from being beaten at home by Northern Iowa too. So I'm not ready to call a team that loses so much from a sub-par offense a world-beater. The truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes...and that's why I think that Iowa will finish second to Ohio State and its arsenal of weapons on offense.
J Martin (Prediction: #2): I love this Iowa team. On defense, they look set to pick up right where they left off in 2009. Yes, they lost two very good linebackers and a good cornerback, but virtually everyone else who made a significant contribution to last year's unit is back. On offense, I expect them to be better than in 09. The offensive line doesn't look as dominant on paper, but OL's are Kirk Ferentz's specialty, so I have no doubt he'll put a quality line on the field. The main area where they need improvement is turnovers, particularly Ricky Stanzi's interceptions. If he can cut his 09 number in half, the Hawkeyes will be tough to beat. And I think he can do that. I think when presumptive running back starter Jewel Hampton went down with a preseason injury, thrusting that job into the hands of a couple of freshmen, it put the offense into a situation they weren't entirely comfortable with. Namely, it required Stanzi to make more plays than maybe he needed to at that point in his development. This year Hampton is back, and those freshmen (who didn't play half bad as the season progressed) now have a year's worth of experience under their belts. That's going to create more of a comfort zone for Stanzi and allow him to be more efficient with the football. I have this team below Ohio State right now, but just by a hair. The schedule definitely plays into their favor as they get their top 3 conference opponents at home. Iowa just needs to prove to me that they can win the lesser games consistently, like say against Northwestern, right along with the big games before I ever put them at #1.
Ross (Prediction: #2): Everything hinges on the development of the offensive line and the team's ability to stay healthy. The defense looks absolutely loaded and the offense is strong at the skill positions. But if guys start going down, there isn't a huge amount of depth at most positions. And the offensive line is still a big question mark, given that they have to work in three new starters who haven't had a lot of experience thus far. Still, if the injury gods smile upon them and the offensive line develops into a respectable outfit, this is a team built to go far. They get all of their toughest foes at home and the schedule is fairly manageable. On the other hand, their history against OSU is absolutely miserable, which makes it hard to pick them over OSU for now.
Michigan Wolverines
Chris (Prediction: #5): So Michigan started the season 5-2, and because of his stellar play everyone was lapping up the Wolverines and true freshman quarterback Tate Forcier. EHHHHHHHHH! Wrong answer. Survey says...the Wolves lost their remaining five games, and with exception of Purdue, they weren't close. So Michigan, what's up? Let's talk. For one, I have absolute faith that Forcier is a gamer and that if anyone is going to elevate that program back to where it was, it's him. The way he played as a true freshman coming into a situation that bad and with such moxie, WOW! Matt Barkley played like dog excrement compared to Forcier, especially considering that Barkley had skill position talent galore around him. Also, how long can Rich Rod and Michigan really be bad? I mean really? The guy's a winner. He may do it illegally, but he does win. The question is how will the ongoing NCAA probe affect the Maize and Blue? I think this is the year though, all things considered, that Michigan gets it right. I'm either way wrong or way right on this one. Here's to hoping I'm way right that one of college football's true traditional powerhouses comes back strong. Even Buckeyes fans want to see the rivalry game actually be somewhat competitive again!
J Martin (Prediction: #7): I’ll admit it’s really difficult for me to get a handle on Michigan this year for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t know who the quarterback is going to be. RichRod’s offense is totally dependent on who the trigger man is. In his heart of hearts, I think he wants Denard Robinson to be the QB because he’s the most dangerous runner of the two, but Forcier has shown more as a passer and doesn’t seem to be going away (unless he gets his feelings hurt and transfers, as rumored). If Forcier is the QB, Michigan is probably going to be in the .500 range, like last year, and maybe go to a bowl. If Robinson is the QB, they could go anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3. Secondly, I just don’t know how this team is going to respond to the axe hanging over Rodriguez’s neck. Are they going to rally around him and fight for a bowl, or are they going to quit and wait to start over with the new coach? Last year began under a similar cloud, and they started out inspired, but then they seemed to give up after dropping games to Michigan State and Iowa. If this year’s team doesn’t have more heart, this season could get REALLY ugly, because I think UConn has the team to show up in Ann Arbor and clean their clocks in week 1. I'm kinda on the fence, but I hate the 3-3-5 defense that Rich is bringing back, so I guess I'll be on the side of pessimism.
Ross (Prediction: #7): It seems increasingly unlikely that the Michigan defense will be able to stop a soul in 2010 (especially through the air), which means that the offense is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting to win games. Luckily, they return a pretty fair amount of talent on offense (3/5 of the OL, QB, a pair of receivers, and a tight end) and showed signs last year of evolving into the sort of high-powered offense that's been a staple of most Rodriguez-coached teams. But that defense... that defense is scary (and not in a good way), especially the secondary, which is an utter wasteland after multiple injuries and defections of highly-ranked talent. The schedule doesn't do them any favors, either; four of their final six Big Ten games are against Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.
Michigan State Spartans
Chris (Prediction: #6): My logic here? Good coach, okay team...not as good as at least four of the teams ahead of them in the Big Ten (may be faltering on my Michigan prediction already), but is definitely not as bad as the 5 teams below. Middle of the road Michigan State can knock people off, or lose to questionable teams. But in the end it all equals out and the Spartans should improve at least one game from their 6-7 season a year ago. You know they should really make some kind of rule with 6-6 bowl teams that if they lose and go 6-7 than they should have to play another 6-7 team that lost and the winner gets back to .500. The loser is disqualified from playing in a bowl the next year because there is no way a team like that should have ever played in a bowl in the first place. Who's with me?
J Martin (Prediction: #6): The Spartans suffered somewhat of a let down in 2009. Despite some turnover on offense, the defense was expected to carry the team to another 9 or 10 win season. But early in the year, the secondary completely imploded, and MSU ended up with one of the worst pass defenses in the conference. That exacerbated issues with a young offense, and the next thing you know, they’re struggling to make a bowl game. Well, the defense is slightly less experienced, with many of their losses coming in the secondary. Your first instinct might be to expect another bad year, but my opinion is that when you’re as bad as the Spartans were in 09, a bunch of fresh faces can be just what you need. I’m looking for a big rebound, led by returning senior linebacker Greg Jones. I also expect more out of the offense now that they’ve settled in on one quarterback and all those freshman running backs have had a year to mature in the system. They still won’t be ready to compete with the best in the conference, but they should return to 8-9 win form.
Ross (Prediction: #5): MSU looks a lot like Iowa on offense: lots of returning talent at the skill positions and a lot of question marks along the offensive line. QB Kirk Cousins might be the best quarterback in the Big Ten and he has a slew of returning targets to throw to, which should lead to some impressive passing stats for MSU. They also have some talented RBs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker; they saw a lot of action last year as true freshmen and that experience should serve them well this year. Still, all of that offensive firepower could be for naught if the new look offensive line can't open holes for the backs and keep Cousins upright -- and that's a definite concern for now. The defense is stacked at LB with veterans Greg Jones and Eric Gordon and newcomers William Gholston and Max Bullough. On the other hand, they'll need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and in the secondary. Still, if they get some quality play from the newcomers in the defense and the offensive line gels quickly, this could be a surprise team in the Big Ten.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chris (Prediction: #11): Gone are the days of Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney rushing for 1,000 yards in the same year (in fact gone are those days in the NFL too, apparently...despite the fact that they are on different teams). Minnesota's offense will improve by way of returning a whopping 9 starters (which isn't saying much, it's hard to get worse than 109th in offense...you have to try pretty hard to do that). YAY! Whew. Wait, but they're still ranked 11th in the Big 10 (that sounds funny even to this day, I know, I chuckle)? So what's the bad news? Oh yeah, they return two on a D that was below average a year ago, including none in their front 7. YIKES! All Gophers fans can do is sit back and think about the days of their dreadlock tandems of running backs. Those were the days...
J Martin (Prediction: #11): It’s going to be a rough year in Minneapolis. I haven’t thought much of the Gophers for the past two seasons, but they’ve managed enough hocus pocus with the schedule to get bowl eligible in both. This season, the schedule is brutal, as they play USC and draw the consensus top 4 teams in the conference, and four of those games are at home (basically wasting home field advantage on teams they have no chance of beating). Even if they were good, they’d struggle. But despite returning nearly the entire offense, they lose their best player by far (Eric Decker), and Adam Weber is not a good quarterback at all. The defense was actually respectable last season, but they return only 2 starters in 2010. Minnesota has a nice new stadium. After this season, it might be time for the administration there to bring in a coach who can field a football team to match it.
Ross (Prediction: #11): As it stands, they're slated to return all of two starters and they'll be breaking in a new defensive coordinator, too. Expecting the Gophers to stop too many teams is a fool's errand. On the bright side, they return nine on offense, including fourth-year starter Adam Weber at QB. Of course, Weber is also working under his third or fourth different offensive coordinator, has regressed each year he's been there, and is without his safety blanket target (Eric Decker). Aside from Decker, they also return most of his top receivers, their leading rusher from a year ago, and their entire offensive line. But like Zook, Tim Brewster has managed the art of getting less out of his team and it's hard not to see them crumbling under the weight of a tough schedule (they entertain USC, Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa at home this year).
Northwestern Wildcats
Chris (Prediction: #7): Take your pick. It will be Purdue or Northwestern. Just like the middle of the Pac-10, this is truly hard to decide. Neither team brings much back, but Northwestern brings back 12 starters off of a surprising 8-5 team vs. Purdue bringing back 10 starters off of a decidedly average team a year ago. It's a fight to the finish, the only difference is, the winner only wins 7th place.
J Martin (Prediction: #5): Pat Fitzgerald has a really good thing going at Northwestern. And while I don’t see his program ever breaking through to contend for the Big 10 title, I also don’t see why he can’t keep winning about 8 games a year. He accomplishes the things that Bobby Johnson used to get credit for almost doing at Vanderbilt. The past 2 years, his Wildcats have finished 4th in the conference at 5-3. He generates this kind of consistency because his teams are always going to be focused around playing sound defense. This season, they return their entire starting linebacker unit. Their biggest challenge will be replacing the underrated Mike Kafka at QB, but presumptive starter Dan Persa gave Kafka a run for his money last off-season, and as a junior, he’s very familiar with the system. Their schedule divides neatly into two halves, and Northwestern could easily be 6-0 at the break. That could make them an extremely dangerous opponent to face late in the year, because they’ll already be bowl eligible and playing with house money, as they say. Revenge-minded Iowa should be wary heading into Evanston.
Ross (Prediction: #6): On the flipside of Michigan State, you have a team like Northwestern, who returns 4/5 of their offensive line but will be breaking in new starters at QB and two of the three starting WR spots. Still, Northwestern has usually done a fine job of finding unheralded players to come in and play at a high level at those spots. The defense features a lot of returning experience at LB and CB, but will be fielding new faces in the secondary and along the defensive line (where some newbie has the unpleasant task of trying to replace stud DE Corey Wooten). But Fitzgerald has proven himself to be an excellent coach, so it's not wise to bet against them too much. They'll probably lose to a team or two that they shouldn't, but they'll also beat a team or two that they shouldn't and will probably be a pesky out for each team on their schedule.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Chris (Prediction: #1): The Buckeyes are the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 10 and possibly even exorcise their demons by winning a national championship (though the Buckeyes do NOT want to see an SEC team meeting them there. Oh please, oh please, oh pretty please football gods! We knew you'd understand, we just can't beat the best of the best). Terrelle Pryor has been lambasted from the beginning of his sophomore year, the time in which fans thought he should have arrived and reached his potential. Instead, Pryor took baby steps until the Rose Bowl and then blew up. Fluke? I don't know, but I doubt it. I think some part of that guy has turned the corner. We'll see how much Pryor has grown when the Bucks go to Iowa for what will probably decide the conference champion. The defense lost some key cogs, but when does a Jim Tressel coached team not play good D? And they will again. Also running back is a concern. Nobody screams the next Beanie Wells. But I think Ohio State is a safe bet to at least take the Big 10, although I'm choosing not to speculate beyond that right now.
J Martin (Prediction: #1): I vacillated back and forth between the Buckeyes and Iowa as to which team was the best in the conference. It was a tough call. Both are loaded. Ultimately, I went with Ohio State. There isn't much negative you can say about this team on paper. They return a wealth of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. The only real question is which Terrelle Pryor is going to show up this season. The one from the Rose Bowl, or the one that had people calling for him to be moved to receiver? My guess is that he ends up close to Rose Bowl form. And if that's the case, the only thing standing in their way is a conference schedule that sees them go on the road to face their two biggest challenges this season, Iowa and Wisconsin. That almost tipped me in favor of the Hawkeyes. But then I remembered: these guys have developed into Big 10 road warriors over the past few years. Barring their epic brain fart against Purdue last year, the Buckeyes haven't lost a Big 10 away game since losing to Penn State in 2005. Kirk Ferentz does a great job at Iowa, but Jim Tressel has this program humming along on a much higher level than anybody else in the Big 10, and they know how to take care of business. They should win their 6th straight conference title, and maybe play in the BCS title game for the 4th time in the past decade if they can avoid another early season big game letdown against The U. They will then, of course, lose.
Ross (Prediction: #1): They return nine on offense and six on defense and have been so consistently dominant in the Big Ten that it's difficult to pick against them, no matter how much I'd like to. If the progress Pryor showed in the Rose Bowl was more than a one-game blip, the offense should be truly terrifying, as they'll have a dangerous passing game to go along with one of the nation's best rushing attacks. The defense has some key holes to fill (mainly, three spots along the defensive line), but OSU has done a better job of reloading than anyone else in the league, especially on defense... so it would be foolish to bet against them. Particularly since the guys they have starting this year are not fresh-faced newbies; they've seen a fair amount of action. The main potential red flag from them is the schedule, which has them facing their two toughest league rivals, Iowa and Wisconsin, on the the road.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Chris (Prediction: #4): The Big 10 is really a 3-team race (sorry if this is the first you've heard of this JoePa), but Penn State is right behind that group. Kevin Newsome should be a capable replacement for Darryl Clark in the athleticism department, but Clark brought such intangibles and leadership to the position that I think it is unlikely to expect Newsome to come right in and resume that role. In fact, he may never reach that level. To be honest, I don't know whether to be more worried about the offense or the defense. Neither will be bad, but neither will be spectacular. Because of Evan Royster I will go with the D. Royster's workload will probably increase, which is cause for concern because his statline DRAMATICALLY decreased a year ago, to the tune of 500 or so yards. However, I myself am in love with Royster's game, and I think he'll recover this year, posting equally as gaudy stats as two years ago.
J Martin (Prediction: #4): On paper, this looks like a very mediocre Penn State team to me. They have the schedule to still win 9 games and play in a nice bowl, but I don’t think they’re a threat to Iowa or Ohio State. Obviously, the main problem on offense is quarterback. They have no one with any experience. They have a couple of incoming freshmen who are promising (I hear Robert Bolden is impressing in camp), but knowing Joe Paterno, he’s going to go with the most steady upper classman until the wheels fall off. Of course, the “upper classmen” in question are sophomores, so regardless, the passing game is going to be WAY down. That means it’s going to fall to Evan Royster to carry the offense on the ground. And while he’s a talented guy, that’s going to be somewhat of a new role for him, and its difficult to say if he’s cut out for it. Defensively, they should be typically stout, which will be their saving grace. However, with the loss of their top 3 linebackers, as well as Jared Odrick on the line, they may not be an elite defense in 2010.
Ross (Prediction: #4): PSU returns plenty on offense (the majority of the offensive line, all their top receivers, and Evan Royster and Stephon Green at RB)... but they have a major question mark at QB, where they still haven't settled on a starter to replace Daryll Clark. That's definitely a concern, especially since they have to go on the road to Alabama and Iowa in their first five weeks. The defense returns just five and will need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and a trio of new linebackers. Fortunately, aside from OSU, no one in the Big Ten has done a better job of just reloading on defense than PSU; they have some highly-talented players waiting in the wings to step in and start at LB and along the defensive line. Really, the thing that damages this team the most might be the schedule: they should be a team that improves as the season progresses, but their schedule features some of their toughest games at the start of the season. That could be difficult to overcome.
Purdue Boilermakers
Chris (Prediction: #8): Take a look at Northwestern for my logic. If I'm wrong, see Robert Marve as the reason.
J Martin (Prediction: #8): The Boilermakers have been a better team than their overall record might have led you to believe the past 2 years. In 2009, they actually went 4-4 in the Big 10, and, if not for a slip-up against Northern Illinois, they would have gone to a bowl. This year’s team looks very similar to the past two, in the sense that they don’t wow you with their number of returning starters, but they’re not dreadfully undermanned either. So with their home-and-home series with Oregon coming to an end, and a much lesser opponent coming on, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t achieve bowl eligibility. They should win at least 3 of their non-conference games (Notre Dame is a toss-up), and they get three key conference “swing” games at home (Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana). The x-factor here will be new quarterback Robert Marve. If he finally has his head on straight, look out. He has an excellent receiving target in Keith Smith, and they can make this offense dangerous.
Ross (Prediction: #8): Robert Marve is a reason for hope as he takes over the QB position (unless you remember him imploding at Miami two years ago, although Purdue fans would rather you didn't mention that), and he has some good targets to throw to (particularly WR Keith Smith)... if the rebuilt offensive line (2/5 starters back) can give him enough protection to find them. RB is a possible trouble spot; Ralph Bolden emerged as a real threat in the Big Ten a year ago, but suffered a significant knee injury in spring practice and may not be ready to go this fall. The defense features one bona fide star (DE Ryan Kerrigan, the best player in the Big Ten that no one talks about) and a number of returning starters in the front seven (3/4 of the defensive line, all three linebackers)... but a host of new faces in the secondary. So Purdue could be in line for quite a few shootouts in 2010; we'll see just how far Marve has come from his Miami days.
Wisconsin Badgers
Chris (Prediction: #3): Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema has filled in seamlessly for Barry Alvarez as the Badgers head coach. He maintained the power running game that his predecessor thrived on, with big backs like P.J. Hill and now John Clay. Expect the Badgers to be pretty amazing offensively, where they return every starter but their fullback. Defensively it might be a work in progress, but the offense has such firepower and can control the clock with their style of play that I don't think the D's flaws will stand out. Wisconsin was only one of 6 teams that averaged 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing a season ago. Expect them to be in that category again, and given a slip up by one of the two above them, they could be seeing roses.
J Martin (Prediction: #3): The recipe for success remains the same as it has for the past 15 or 20 years: take a big, fat running back, line him up behind an even bigger, fatter offensive line, and just run over people. This season, the Badgers have an incredibly experienced big, fat offensive line (109 total starts), and return the big, fat Big 10 offensive player of the year, not to mention another good one in Montee Ball. In fact, they return just about everyone of consequence on offense except Garrett Graham. Scott Tolzien wasn’t overly impressive at QB last year, but he came on strong towards the end, and this team doesn’t need him to be more than an effective game manager. If he cuts his interception total in half, Wisconsin will be tough to beat. They have a very easy non-conference schedule and a favorable conference slate, including Ohio State at home. The only trick is that they have to go to Iowa to play the very next week. But if they take care of business against the Buckeyes at home, they could very well ride that momentum to a victory over the Hawkeyes. Of course…I could also see them going into the tank against Iowa if they lose to OSU. So that’s the critical stretch. 10 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team.
Ross (Prediction: #3): The Badgers are loaded on offense, especially along the line where they return all five starters. Those five behemoths should open plenty of holes for John Clay and Montee Ball and give Scott Tolzien time to hit open receivers on play-action passes. On the other hand, their defense returns only six starters (including just one on the defensive line) and they've been banged up in preseason camp, with two of their best returning defenders (LB Chris Borland and SS Jay Valai) missing time with injuries. The schedule is also a little nasty, as they get Ohio State and Iowa back-to-back. Bielema's done a solid job of beating the teams he should beat at Wisco, but he's struggled to get over the hump and beat the top dogs.
CFBZ Predicted Big Ten 2010 Standings
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Iowa Hawkeyes
3. Wisconsin Badgers
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Northwestern Wildcats
7. Michigan Wolverines
8. Purdue Boilermakers
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Indiana Hoosiers
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Pre-Season Preview: Wisconsin Badgers
2009 Record: 10-3 (5-3 in Big Ten)
2009 Bowl: Champs Sports Bowl (beat Miami, Fl 20-14)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: #16
Head Coach: Bret Bielema (38-14 at Wisconsin, 20-12 in Big Ten)
Non-Conference Schedule: at UNLV (9/4), San Jose State (9/11), Arizona State (9/18), Austin Peay (9/25)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 31.8 points per game (1st in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 203 (1st in Big Ten, 15th in Nation)
Passing Yards/Game: 213 (7th in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 416 (1st in Big Ten)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 21.8 points per game (4th in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 88 (1st in Big Ten, 5th in Nation)
Passing Yards/Game: 217 (5th in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 305 (4th in Big Ten, 17th in Nation)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +0.23 per game (4th in Big Ten)
Penalties: 47 yards per game (4th in Big Ten)
Returning Starters
Offense: 10
Defense: 6
Kicker/Punter: 2
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Scott Tolzien, Sr (211 of 328 for 2705 yds, 16 TD, 11 INT)
Rushing: RB John Clay, Jr (287 carries for 1517 yds, 18 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Receiving: WR Nick Toon, Jr (54 rec, 805 yds, 4 TD, 4.2 rec/game)
Tackles: LB Culver St. Jean, Sr (63)
Sacks: LB Chris Borland, Soph (5)
Interceptions: CB Niles Brinkley, Sr (2), CB Devin Smith, Jr (2)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #16
Lindy's: #6
Mark Schlabach: #10
Phil Steele: #23
Rivals: #9
Scout: #9
Sporting News: #8
Sports Illustrated: #11
USA Today Coaches Poll: #12
2010 Pre-Season Big Ten Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #3
Phil Steele: #4
Sports Illustrated: #3 (tied with Penn State)
Bowl Predictions:
Athlon Sports: Capital One Bowl (vs. Georgia)
Phil Steele: Outback Bowl (vs. Georgia)
Wisconsin went 10-3 last year dropping games to Ohio State, Iowa and Northwestern. This year Wisconsin draws the same Big 10 schedule as last year (does not included Penn State), they draw Ohio State at home and they also have one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country. I would be very surprised if Wisconsin does not end up in the Top 15 at the end of the year and they have a good shot to be Top 10 if they don't slip up like they did last year against Northwestern. Wisconsin also returns 10 offensive starters including Heisman candidate John Clay. Wisconsin actually returns the most starters in the league. They also return 107 starts along the offensive line which is the 9th most in the Nation and the most in the Big Ten (Ohio State is next with 93 starts- #18 in the Nation). There is a lot to like about this Wisconsin team but their season may come down to a pair of back-to-back games against Ohio State on Oct 16th and on the road at Iowa on Oct 23rd. We caught up with Troy Pieper of the Wisconsin Badgers based blog Badger of Honor to find out more about the 2010 version of the Badgers.
What are the biggest strengths and most glaring weaknesses of the Badgers this year?
There are a couple of things that I think are the Badgers biggest strengths. First off their offense is loaded again after leading the Big Ten in most categories a year ago. They return their entire core and the Offensive Line might be the best in the Nation as I can see 3 of them getting drafted next April. Also the return of Scott Tolzien is huge, he was more important to the team a year ago than most will give him credit for. The most obvious strength is the guy who I think deserves more Heisman Hype than he's getting, John Clay could surpass 2,000 yards and 20 TD's this year and my prediction is he'll win his 2nd Big Ten Offensive Player of the year award. If you look at what he did last year it's pretty amazing when you take into account that he didn't become the full time starter until mid season. I would also throw their Special Teams in as a strength as Phillip Welch is considered by many including myself as one of the two best Kickers in the Big Ten........ the only weakness I see with this team is the back end of the Defense. I think the DL and the LB's are solid enough when you take into account how many points UW should put up, but the Secondary besides maybe Jay Valai who started 13 games a year ago.
Who do you consider the first major test on your schedule?
I think the Badgers will roll through the Non Conference schedule, but the Big Ten Opener scares me a bit. I think Michigan St. could surprise some people and I feel they have a good shot at finishing ahead of Penn State. So going on the road to start the Big Ten at MSU scares me a little. I still think they should be unbeaten heading into the Ohio St. game, but that one does scare me.
What team on the schedule do you want to beat the most?
The obvious answer would be Ohio St. seeing that they are #2 in the Pre Season poll, and picked to win the Big Ten. But I look at this as which team left the most bitter taste in my mouth a year ago that is a contender, and even though if you watch the game at Ohio St. a year ago you will see that the Badger for the most part out played them and the Badgers minus a few big plays could have been right in that game, but the one game that still bothers me is the game at Camp Randall against Iowa. The Badgers had their way in the 1st half and just didn't produce any points, and lost a close game, and to most in Wisconsin that is our 2nd biggest rival besides Minnesota. So I would love nothing more than for UW to go Iowa this year and take them down. If that would happen I think the Badgers will win the Big Ten because you can write it down right now the Badgers will beat Ohio St. the week before at Camp Randall!!
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
Most people will say Nick Toon, but I think most know him by now. I think the one guy who will get no talk that could end up being the MVP of this team if an injury would happen to Clay is Monte Ball. Ball a year ago finished 2nd on the team in rushing even though he only appeared in 9 games. He'll be the #2 Back this year ahead of Zach Brown, most people don't even talk about him, most will say if Clay gets hurt Brown will need to step up, but Monte Ball is the guy who could keep John Clay away from the Heisman race. I think he'll get enough touches weather Clay is healthy or not, and he'll be a guy people will start talking about a lot more and people will realize even if Clay doesn't come back for his Senior year next year that the Badgers have another guy ready to take over.
Who is the most impactful player on the team?
I've tried to stay away from the obvious answer up to this point, but I can't here, John Clay I think is the most impactful player in the Big Ten, so he's by far the most impactful player for the Badgers. Others who are in this conversation are Gabe Carimi who is the best OL the Badgers have had since Joe Thomas, Nick Toon I think will be in this conversation by the end of the season if he continues to progress, and Scott Tolzien is the guy the Badgers need to keep growing and become more of and impact, even though he was a very bright spot on the team a year ago he could take another step and that could be a huge impact for this team. When it's all said and done this team will WIN or LOSE with John Clay.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?
I would say the entire Secondary. If the back end of this defense is good, not many teams will do much against this team, they are already very stout against the run. If their Secondary can make improvements this "D" could be special, the one thing I will add to this is I think Chris Borland last years Defensive Freshman of the year needs to take the next step as well into a GREAT LB, he got a lot of praise and is getting praise this pre season, but I think he could still raise his game a little more!
Who is the top newcomer that can make an impact this year?
This is a tough one, the Badgers have so many returning players, there really isn't many newcomers who will get many chances, but the one guy I'm excited to see what he can do is Red Shirt Freshman Jordan Kohout. He's penciled in as one of the starting D Lineman, and if this "D" is going to be dominant they will need someone who isn't expected to be great to step up and make an impact, and he could be the guy.
Who is the one player on an opposing team that strikes the most fear in your heart?
Again the most obvious answer here is Terrelle Pryor, and that is the answer. He has been scary ever since his Freshman year if not anything but the HYPE that the media has given him. I don't think he's reached that hype yet, but if he would play an entire season like he played a year ago in the Rose Bowl, that would be scary, and you could hand him the Heisman Trophy, the only thing with him is he's been more hype to me than anything, but he showed what he is capable of in the Rose Bowl, and if he builds off of that game, he is the scariest player in the Big Ten..... besides John Clay of course.... I'm going to get Clay the hype he deserves one way or the other!!
Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
I can't argue with the Media's prediction for the top three in the Big Ten, with OSU first, Iowa second, and Wisconsin third, but I will say this if UW can come out of East Lansing with a win, which I think they will even though it does scare me, then the Badgers are looking at a two game season: home against Ohio St. and the following week at Iowa. As crazy as this may sound, I think Wisconsin will win both those games, however there is a let down after such a huge two game stretch, and I could see them losing the next week at Purdue, and maybe even the game at Michigan, but I still see this team at least finishing in a tie for the Big Ten title with a record of 11 - 1 or 10 - 2, but when they are unbeaten after beating OSU and Iowa it will feel like a let down to some!!
Make sure to check out Badger of Honor this year for your Wisconsin and Big Ten needs. You can also follow them on twitter @badgerofhonor.
Previous Big Ten Previews:
Illinois Fighting Illini
Indiana Hoosiers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Michigan Wolverines
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Northwestern Wildcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Purdue Boilermakers
Next Up: Michigan State Spartans
Previous Pre-Season Previews
ACC- Boston College Eagles, Clemson Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins, North Carolina Tar Heels, North Carolina State Wolfpack Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Big 12- Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Texas Longhorns, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Syracuse Orange, UConn Huskies, USF Bulls, West Virginia Mountaineers
Conference USA- East Carolina Pirates, Houston Cougars, Marshall Thundering Herd, Rice Owls, SMU Mustangs, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
Independent- Army Black Knights, Navy Midshipmen, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
MAC- Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Central Michigan Chippewas, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets
MWC- BYU Cougars, Colorado State Rams, UNLV Rebels, Utah Utes
Pac-10- Arizona Wildcats, Arizona State Sun Devils, California Golden Bears, Oregon Ducks, Oregon State Beavers, Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Washington Huskies, Washington State Cougars
SEC- Alabama Crimson Tide, Auburn Tigers, Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky Wildcats, LSU Tigers, Mississippi Rebels, Mississippi State Bulldogs, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
Sun Belt- FIU Golden Panthers, North Texas Mean Green, Troy Trojans
WAC- Boise State Broncos, Fresno State Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, New Mexico State Aggies
2009 Bowl: Champs Sports Bowl (beat Miami, Fl 20-14)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: #16
Head Coach: Bret Bielema (38-14 at Wisconsin, 20-12 in Big Ten)
Non-Conference Schedule: at UNLV (9/4), San Jose State (9/11), Arizona State (9/18), Austin Peay (9/25)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 31.8 points per game (1st in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 203 (1st in Big Ten, 15th in Nation)
Passing Yards/Game: 213 (7th in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 416 (1st in Big Ten)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 21.8 points per game (4th in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 88 (1st in Big Ten, 5th in Nation)
Passing Yards/Game: 217 (5th in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 305 (4th in Big Ten, 17th in Nation)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +0.23 per game (4th in Big Ten)
Penalties: 47 yards per game (4th in Big Ten)
Returning Starters
Offense: 10
Defense: 6
Kicker/Punter: 2
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Scott Tolzien, Sr (211 of 328 for 2705 yds, 16 TD, 11 INT)
Rushing: RB John Clay, Jr (287 carries for 1517 yds, 18 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Receiving: WR Nick Toon, Jr (54 rec, 805 yds, 4 TD, 4.2 rec/game)
Tackles: LB Culver St. Jean, Sr (63)
Sacks: LB Chris Borland, Soph (5)
Interceptions: CB Niles Brinkley, Sr (2), CB Devin Smith, Jr (2)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #16
Lindy's: #6
Mark Schlabach: #10
Phil Steele: #23
Rivals: #9
Scout: #9
Sporting News: #8
Sports Illustrated: #11
USA Today Coaches Poll: #12
2010 Pre-Season Big Ten Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #3
Phil Steele: #4
Sports Illustrated: #3 (tied with Penn State)
Bowl Predictions:
Athlon Sports: Capital One Bowl (vs. Georgia)
Phil Steele: Outback Bowl (vs. Georgia)
Wisconsin went 10-3 last year dropping games to Ohio State, Iowa and Northwestern. This year Wisconsin draws the same Big 10 schedule as last year (does not included Penn State), they draw Ohio State at home and they also have one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country. I would be very surprised if Wisconsin does not end up in the Top 15 at the end of the year and they have a good shot to be Top 10 if they don't slip up like they did last year against Northwestern. Wisconsin also returns 10 offensive starters including Heisman candidate John Clay. Wisconsin actually returns the most starters in the league. They also return 107 starts along the offensive line which is the 9th most in the Nation and the most in the Big Ten (Ohio State is next with 93 starts- #18 in the Nation). There is a lot to like about this Wisconsin team but their season may come down to a pair of back-to-back games against Ohio State on Oct 16th and on the road at Iowa on Oct 23rd. We caught up with Troy Pieper of the Wisconsin Badgers based blog Badger of Honor to find out more about the 2010 version of the Badgers.
What are the biggest strengths and most glaring weaknesses of the Badgers this year?
There are a couple of things that I think are the Badgers biggest strengths. First off their offense is loaded again after leading the Big Ten in most categories a year ago. They return their entire core and the Offensive Line might be the best in the Nation as I can see 3 of them getting drafted next April. Also the return of Scott Tolzien is huge, he was more important to the team a year ago than most will give him credit for. The most obvious strength is the guy who I think deserves more Heisman Hype than he's getting, John Clay could surpass 2,000 yards and 20 TD's this year and my prediction is he'll win his 2nd Big Ten Offensive Player of the year award. If you look at what he did last year it's pretty amazing when you take into account that he didn't become the full time starter until mid season. I would also throw their Special Teams in as a strength as Phillip Welch is considered by many including myself as one of the two best Kickers in the Big Ten........ the only weakness I see with this team is the back end of the Defense. I think the DL and the LB's are solid enough when you take into account how many points UW should put up, but the Secondary besides maybe Jay Valai who started 13 games a year ago.
Who do you consider the first major test on your schedule?
I think the Badgers will roll through the Non Conference schedule, but the Big Ten Opener scares me a bit. I think Michigan St. could surprise some people and I feel they have a good shot at finishing ahead of Penn State. So going on the road to start the Big Ten at MSU scares me a little. I still think they should be unbeaten heading into the Ohio St. game, but that one does scare me.
What team on the schedule do you want to beat the most?
The obvious answer would be Ohio St. seeing that they are #2 in the Pre Season poll, and picked to win the Big Ten. But I look at this as which team left the most bitter taste in my mouth a year ago that is a contender, and even though if you watch the game at Ohio St. a year ago you will see that the Badger for the most part out played them and the Badgers minus a few big plays could have been right in that game, but the one game that still bothers me is the game at Camp Randall against Iowa. The Badgers had their way in the 1st half and just didn't produce any points, and lost a close game, and to most in Wisconsin that is our 2nd biggest rival besides Minnesota. So I would love nothing more than for UW to go Iowa this year and take them down. If that would happen I think the Badgers will win the Big Ten because you can write it down right now the Badgers will beat Ohio St. the week before at Camp Randall!!
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
Most people will say Nick Toon, but I think most know him by now. I think the one guy who will get no talk that could end up being the MVP of this team if an injury would happen to Clay is Monte Ball. Ball a year ago finished 2nd on the team in rushing even though he only appeared in 9 games. He'll be the #2 Back this year ahead of Zach Brown, most people don't even talk about him, most will say if Clay gets hurt Brown will need to step up, but Monte Ball is the guy who could keep John Clay away from the Heisman race. I think he'll get enough touches weather Clay is healthy or not, and he'll be a guy people will start talking about a lot more and people will realize even if Clay doesn't come back for his Senior year next year that the Badgers have another guy ready to take over.
Who is the most impactful player on the team?
I've tried to stay away from the obvious answer up to this point, but I can't here, John Clay I think is the most impactful player in the Big Ten, so he's by far the most impactful player for the Badgers. Others who are in this conversation are Gabe Carimi who is the best OL the Badgers have had since Joe Thomas, Nick Toon I think will be in this conversation by the end of the season if he continues to progress, and Scott Tolzien is the guy the Badgers need to keep growing and become more of and impact, even though he was a very bright spot on the team a year ago he could take another step and that could be a huge impact for this team. When it's all said and done this team will WIN or LOSE with John Clay.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?
I would say the entire Secondary. If the back end of this defense is good, not many teams will do much against this team, they are already very stout against the run. If their Secondary can make improvements this "D" could be special, the one thing I will add to this is I think Chris Borland last years Defensive Freshman of the year needs to take the next step as well into a GREAT LB, he got a lot of praise and is getting praise this pre season, but I think he could still raise his game a little more!
Who is the top newcomer that can make an impact this year?
This is a tough one, the Badgers have so many returning players, there really isn't many newcomers who will get many chances, but the one guy I'm excited to see what he can do is Red Shirt Freshman Jordan Kohout. He's penciled in as one of the starting D Lineman, and if this "D" is going to be dominant they will need someone who isn't expected to be great to step up and make an impact, and he could be the guy.
Who is the one player on an opposing team that strikes the most fear in your heart?
Again the most obvious answer here is Terrelle Pryor, and that is the answer. He has been scary ever since his Freshman year if not anything but the HYPE that the media has given him. I don't think he's reached that hype yet, but if he would play an entire season like he played a year ago in the Rose Bowl, that would be scary, and you could hand him the Heisman Trophy, the only thing with him is he's been more hype to me than anything, but he showed what he is capable of in the Rose Bowl, and if he builds off of that game, he is the scariest player in the Big Ten..... besides John Clay of course.... I'm going to get Clay the hype he deserves one way or the other!!
Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
I can't argue with the Media's prediction for the top three in the Big Ten, with OSU first, Iowa second, and Wisconsin third, but I will say this if UW can come out of East Lansing with a win, which I think they will even though it does scare me, then the Badgers are looking at a two game season: home against Ohio St. and the following week at Iowa. As crazy as this may sound, I think Wisconsin will win both those games, however there is a let down after such a huge two game stretch, and I could see them losing the next week at Purdue, and maybe even the game at Michigan, but I still see this team at least finishing in a tie for the Big Ten title with a record of 11 - 1 or 10 - 2, but when they are unbeaten after beating OSU and Iowa it will feel like a let down to some!!
Make sure to check out Badger of Honor this year for your Wisconsin and Big Ten needs. You can also follow them on twitter @badgerofhonor.
Previous Big Ten Previews:
Illinois Fighting Illini
Indiana Hoosiers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Michigan Wolverines
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Northwestern Wildcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Penn State Nittany Lions
Purdue Boilermakers
Next Up: Michigan State Spartans
Previous Pre-Season Previews
ACC- Boston College Eagles, Clemson Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins, North Carolina Tar Heels, North Carolina State Wolfpack Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Big 12- Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Texas Longhorns, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Syracuse Orange, UConn Huskies, USF Bulls, West Virginia Mountaineers
Conference USA- East Carolina Pirates, Houston Cougars, Marshall Thundering Herd, Rice Owls, SMU Mustangs, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
Independent- Army Black Knights, Navy Midshipmen, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
MAC- Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Central Michigan Chippewas, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets
MWC- BYU Cougars, Colorado State Rams, UNLV Rebels, Utah Utes
Pac-10- Arizona Wildcats, Arizona State Sun Devils, California Golden Bears, Oregon Ducks, Oregon State Beavers, Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Washington Huskies, Washington State Cougars
SEC- Alabama Crimson Tide, Auburn Tigers, Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky Wildcats, LSU Tigers, Mississippi Rebels, Mississippi State Bulldogs, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
Sun Belt- FIU Golden Panthers, North Texas Mean Green, Troy Trojans
WAC- Boise State Broncos, Fresno State Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, New Mexico State Aggies
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