Penn State Nittany Lions: 2010 Exit Survey

2010 CFBZ Prediction: 4th Place in Big Ten
2010 Actual Finish: Tied for 4th Place in Big Ten (7-6, 4-4)

2008 and 2009 saw Penn State post back-to-back 11-2 seasons. Many thought Penn State was back but after posting a 7-6 record this year many of those same people are wondering how long Joe Paterno will stick around. Starting a freshman at QB, Rob Bolden, the Nittany Lions managed only 3 points in each of their first two major tests against Alabama and Iowa. Bolden went down with an injury and former walk-on Matthew McGloin took over at the end of the Minnesota game and Penn State the regular season winning 4 of their final 6 (losing to the only two ranked teams they played during that stretch). To get a closer look inside Penn State we talked to Devon Edwards of the Nittany White Out to find out his thoughts for the 2010 season and the future of the program.


1. In our Pre-Season Preview you said you thought the team would finish 10-2 or 9-3. Unfortunately, 7-6 was Penn State's final record. Do you see this season as a success, a failure or something in the middle?

In the preseason, I overestimated Penn State's ability to reload along the offensive line, and underestimated the depth of the Big Ten. Throwing out the bowl game, because I didn't include that in my prediction, Penn State lost two games that I didn't see coming--to Illinois and Michigan State. Obviously, the Spartans were one of the biggest surprises if not in the country than certainly in the Big Ten, and if I thought they were going to be a top 10 team, I'd have predicted a loss to them, too. The one real turd in the punch bowl was the Illinois game, and it was one of the weaker performances of the last five years at Penn State. All considered, 2010 obviously wasn't a successful year, but neither was it an unmitigated failure.

2. What are your feelings on Joe Paterno remaining the coach of Penn State and when do you think he should finally give it up?

I don't think Joe Paterno is really holding this program back, though bringing in a big name coach after he finally does hang 'em up could provide a shot in the arm for a school that really has the capacity to be more than a distant second to Ohio State in the Big Ten. That said, he's earned the right to coach at least one more year, until his contract runs up following the 2011 season. But after next season, if Joe won't graciously step aside, we'll have a problem.

3. What were your favorite moments of the season?

There was a great two-and-a-half game stretch right in the middle of the season--starting with a primetime win over Michigan, and culminating in the first half against Ohio State, with the Lions taking a 14-10 lead into the break. Sandwiched between those two games was the high point of the year, a stirring comeback from a 21-0 deficit to beat the Wildcats of Northwestern en route to a 35-21 win that not just injected some sanity back into the program, but was Joe Paterno's 400th career win, all at Penn State.

4. Which players surprised you the most with their performance in 2010?

Matt McGloin is the obvious answer--the former walk-on QB led Penn State to some of its biggest wins on the season--but I'm really not a fan. In fact, his emergence has led, directly, to the possible transfer of Rob Bolden, a true freshman who was Penn State's starting quarterback before suffering a concussion. I was, however, incredibly impressed by the continued development of Derek Moye, who progressed, over the course of the season, into an absolute stud at wide receiver, and by the emergence of true freshman running back Silas Redd, who looks like a star in the making.

5. Who are you most looking forward to watching in 2011?

With Bolden's possible transfer, this might be Paul Jones' chance to get the nod at quarterback. Jones took a redshirt year, rather than play as a true freshman, but drew rave reviews in the recruiting game and looked the part in Penn State's spring game. Joe Paterno even spoke highly of Jones, and if there's a legitimate competition between him and McGloin, I firmly expect PJ to win it.

The Six Pack Games of the Week: November 11-13

Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.

LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 31-17

#24 KANSAS STATE (6-3, 3-3) @ #17 MISSOURI (7-2, 3-2) (FSN, 12:30pm EST)
In all likelihood, this is the battle to determine the runner-up to Nebraska this year, since the Cornhuskers already have wins over both the Wildcats and the Tigers; Nebraska would need to lose two of their final three remaining games. Two of their final three games are home dates with Kansas and Colorado; a loss in one of those games doesn't seem hugely probable at all. Thus, welcome to the Big 12 North runner-up derby. K-State is coming off a total beatdown of Texas and while Texas may be a huge disappointment and underachiever this year, there's still something to be said for so thoroughly dismantling them. On the flip side, Missouri is coming off a come-from-ahead loss to Texas Tech in which they leapt out to a 17-0 lead and then apparently went home, letting Texas Tech score the next 24 points and win the game. Mizzou has lost two in a row (they lost to Nebraska the week before last) and could use a win here to at least keep alive the hope of a 10-win season and a decent bowl trip. K-State has been brutally one-dimensional on offense (run run run), but it's hard to see that being enough against a surprisingly good Mizzou defense.
THE PICK: MISSOURI 24, KANSAS STATE 14

#20 VIRGINIA TECH (7-2, 5-0) @ NORTH CAROLINA (6-3, 3-2) (ABC/ESPN, 3:30pm EST)
For all intents and purposes, Virginia Tech has all but locked up their umpteenth Coastal division title since the league split into divisions in 2005 (OK, technically their fourth division title in the last six years). They would need to lose two of their final three games to not claim the Coastal crown yet again; anything's possible in the topsy-turvy world of the ACC, but that seems like a tall order, given how well VT is generally playing now. North Carolina scored a big (and surprising) road win over Florida State when FSU once again fell victim to "Wide Right," but it may be asking a lot for their battered and beleagured team to come up with a similar effort against a rested VT team. Here's guessing they keep it close for a while, but VT is able to pull away in the second half.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH 27, NORTH CAROLINA 17

PENN STATE (6-3, 3-2) @ #9 OHIO STATE (8-1, 4-1) (ABC/ESPN, 3:30pm EST)
A month ago, this game looked like a total laugher for OSU, another speedbump on their way to the (potential) conference-deciding showdown with Iowa on 11/20. Then Penn State's freshman QB Robert Bolden got hurt and PSU turned to little-used walk-on QB Matt McGloin. Improbably, McGloin sparked the offense and has led them to three straight wins and rejuvenated hope of a decent season in Happy Valley. Mind you, those wins do come with some caveats -- they came against Minnesota, Michigan, and Northwestern, three of the worst pass defenses in the league (and, in the case of Michigan and Minnesota, defenses that frankly aren't good at much of anything). Ohio State represents a quantum leap in quality from what Penn State has been playing the past few weeks, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Two of those three wins also came in the friendly confines of Happy Valley, while the lone road win was in Minneapolis -- not exactly hostile territory these days. Columbus, OH, on the other hand, will be very hostile territory. OSU has occasionally looked a bit shaky on the road, but they've been positively murderous at home and they're going to be too much for an inexperienced PSU team. McGloin may be able to keep it close for a bit, but that's about it.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE 31, PENN STATE 13

GEORIGA (5-5, 3-4) @ #1 AUBURN (10-0, 6-0) (CBS, 3:30pm EST)
Ah, the first of our SEC triple-header to close out this week. This game looked intriguing a few weeks ago, but primarily as a potential trap game for Auburn. There were reasons to like Georgia anyway -- an offense that's become increasingly dynamic over the course of the season, an extra week to prepare, the hoary old "anything can happen in a rivalry game" chestnut, the possibility of Auburn looking ahead to Alabama -- but then Newtongate happened and things got even crazier. At this point, it's almost hard to remember that Auburn ACTUALLY HAS TO PLAY A GAME ON SATURDAY. With probably the biggest news story of the year swirling around them and a potential national title shot still on the line, the Auburn players have to go out and perform against a Georgia team with nothing to lose. Can you say "pressure"? If he even plays, will the controversy surrounding Newton derail his (and Auburn's) incredible season? It's impossible to say. Literally, any result in this game seems plausible; Auburn could come out flat and distracted and get smoked by a Georgia team better than its 5-5 record. Conversely, they could come out pissed off and motivated and destroy Georgia. Or it could be a nail-biter won by either team -- or anything in-between. For now, I'm assuming that Newtown plays and that he comes out using the controversy as motivational fodder. But that could certainly be dead wrong.
THE PICK: AUBURN 38, GEORGIA 34

#23 SOUTH CAROLINA (6-3, 4-3) @ #22 FLORIDA (6-3, 4-3) (ESPN, 7:15pm EST)
Two teams going in opposite directions. After an ugly 3-game losing streak, Florida's rebounded to win two in a row and in the 55-14 rout of Vanderbilt last week, the offense actually looked (gasp) good. Meanwhile, South Carolina got blasted on its own field by Arkansas and lost for the second time in four games, with the two losses sandwiching unimpressive wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee. On the other hand, the counter-argument is that South Carolina sandbagged the Arkansas game because they knew it had no bearing on their main goal, an SEC East title. The division title comes down to this game, with the winner getting the honor (?) of meeting Auburn (or possibly LSU) in the SEC Championship Game. The key question for South Carolina is whether or not they can turn the clock back a month and play like they did when they stomped a mudhole all over Alabama and established themselves as the dominant team in the East. They've dozed through their four games since then (going 2-2, as noted) and haven't looked remotely as dominant. Florida remains a flawed team -- let me know when the offense looks menacing against something other than the pussycat Vanderbilt defense -- and for once, South Carolina may actually have the more talented team, at least in terms of starters. But it's hard to bet against Urban Meyer in big games and easy to bet against perpetual choke artists like South Carolina -- especially when their own performances over the past month have been so listless.
THE PICK: FLORIDA 28, SOUTH CAROLINA 24

#19 MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-2, 3-2) @ #12 ALABAMA (7-2, 4-2) (ESPN2, 7:15pm EST)
Mississippi State has somewhat amazingly -- and quietly -- remained in the polls for a full month now. Mississippi State! If you had told me before the season that at this point in the season Mississippi State and Alabama would have the same record I... would not have believed you. That said, same record = teams of equal quality. Mississippi State's best win was over a reeling Florida team; since then they also have a pair of narrow wins over UAB and Kentucky and an offense that can only do one thing well: run the ball. Their defense is stout, but against a pissed-off Alabama offense that may not matter. Bama at home, at night, off a loss... hard to see this one going well for Mississippi State, no matter how surprising they've been this season.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, MISSISSIPPI STATE 13

In Review: Alabama 24, Penn State 3

Alabama’s Chase for 14 began in earnest on Saturday, and it got off to a rousing start, with the Tide throttling a traditional power and Top 20 team in Tuscaloosa. My predicted final score of 31-16 turned out to be way off, but my overall impressions of the game proved correct. Penn State was able to create several explosive plays by picking on the inexperienced defense, but barely managed a sniff of the endzone. Worse, instead of settling for field goals, they suffered 3 costly turnovers inside the 20 yard line. And that was ultimately their undoing. Failing to put the fear of a comeback in Alabama, the Tide was free to dial up whatever they wanted on offense without reservation for most of the game and looked tremendous in doing so. At times, it seemed the only people capable of stopping the Bama offense were itself and the refs.

Speaking of which, is the Big 10 hiring one-eyed refs again? I’m not usually one to complain about officiating, but this was some of the worst I’ve seen in quite some time. In particular, the ball spotting was infuriating. Penn State was consistently given an extra half-yard on every spot, while Bama’s spots were routinely marked a half yard short of where anyone with 20/20 vision could tell they were supposed to be. Sometimes it was even WORSE, such as with Greg McElroy’s 3rd down scramble late in the game that would have allowed Bama to keep running the clock. If he didn’t get the first, he was right at the line to make. However, the Big 10 officials spotted him a solid yard and a half short. And this wasn’t even their most egregious offense of the night. That brings me to the first of several points I’d like to highlight.

The Triple Fumble Fiasco. This was one of the most bizarre plays in the long history of Bryant-Denny Stadium. On 2nd and 6 from the Bama 16, Penn State’s Chaz Powell caught a short pass, then took a stiff hit from Mark Barron, coughing up the football. Robert Lester recovered at the 9 yard line, then took off down the sidelines with a convoy of blockers. Despite clearly being warned by Dre Kirkpatrick that a Penn State receiver was on his trail, Lester failed to secure the ball and got Teague-d at the State 16-yard line. Kirkpatrick attempted to scoop up the ball and finish the score, but was tackled short. When his back hit the ground, the ball squirted free and was recovered at the 2 by State’s Brett Brackett. This is where it got weird.

The lead official did NOT make a call on the field over the PA. He immediately sent it to replay review. The only indication of the call on the field we got was a hand signal that appeared to say, “1st down Alabama.” So it went to review. I’m not going to spend time arguing over what the replay actually showed. To me, it appeared Kirkpatrick had possession and the ball came free after he was down. At the same time, I can see the argument that he might not have ever had possession. So it seemed like a clear case of the replay not providing conclusive evidence to overturn the ruling on the field. Which was? Alabama’s ball?

When the replay ruling came down, it was explained as such: “The ruling on the field stands. 1st down Penn State.” The official then gestured first down….Alabama. What the heck? No official ruling was ever made on the field! The closest we got to a ruling was a signal of Bama’s ball. And even after the ruling, the ref’s words don’t match his signals. Shady, or just incompetent? You be the judge. Regardless, it was a major field position flip for the Tide defense. Still, you have to wonder how ugly the game would have gotten if Bama had been awarded the ball and been able to punch it in from the 2 yard line.

The Secondary play was…Encouraging, actually. This was the inexperienced unit’s first test, and they struggled in a lot of the ways you would expect, giving up several big plays. And, let’s be honest, if they go to Fayetteville and play like they did on Saturday, Arkansas will win, big. They still have a long way to go. But I’m encouraged because they didn’t make the BIG mistakes. There were no horrendously blown assignments. There was never an instance of a Penn State receiver getting behind the defense. Whenever they made catches, there was always a Bama defender in at least reasonably good position to make a play on them. It wasn’t a matter of them not knowing where to be, it was an issue of them being a step slow because, well, they’re inexperienced. You can cure inexperience. You can’t cure stupid. Right now, it seems Bama’s problem is the former. You can work with that. You also have to keep in mind that the defense was playing without it’s two best pass rushers for the majority of the game. Courtney Upshaw being extremely limited by an ankle injury (only a handful of snaps) was a big loss that exacerbated the problems caused by Dareus’ absence. When both of those guys are on the field together, it will make the secondary’s life a lot easier.

This talk about the secondary makes me want to point out one guy in particular…

Robert Lester: Hero and Goat. I can’t figure this guy out. There are times you understand why he’s rarely played before this year, and then there are times you think he can be All-SEC. His main problem is tackling. Dude was tackling so bad last night it was like he was playing for Georgia. He gave up a handful of big gains that should have been nothing if he wrapped up. But then he always comes back later and shows the potential to be a Barron-esque ballhawk. Of course, he had the redzone fumble recovery, but then he also had a redzone interception and another potential pick glanced off his hands at the goalline. He is ALWAYS where the ball is. He just runs into trouble when the ball doesn’t end up in his hands.

In his defense, I’ll say tackling was a tad sub-par by Bama standards all night. Even Dont’a Hightower had a play or two where he didn’t wrap up properly and let a ball carrier pick up an extra couple of yards. You didn’t see that out of the Bama defense too much last year. Hopefully, it’ll improve.

On the Injury Front: As mentioned, Upshaw was mostly on the sidelines. In his place, redshirt freshman Ed Stinson started at Jack and played very well, leading the team with 9 tackles. Upshaw should be back next week. Freshman corner DeMarcus Milliner started at corner over DeQuan Menzie and had a solid game after a shaky start when he was picked on early by Penn State. However, he left the game in the 3rd quarter with a pulled hamstring. Starting left tackle James Carpenter also left the game in the 4th after suffering a sprained ankle. Finally, linebacker Chris Jordan did not play the second half with some sort of shoulder injury. He’s scheduled to have an MRI today, so we’ll see how that goes. Everyone except Jordan is expected to be good to go for next week. I feel good about our depth at inside linebacker with the emergence of CJ Mosely, though.

Early indications after the game are that Mark Ingram WILL play next week against Duke. That’s somewhat surprising, and I’ll be keeping an eye on that situation throughout the week.

Checking Up On My PLAYERS TO WATCH

For Alabama: Julio Jones – Julio finished with 4 catches for 49 yards. He was targeted twice on Bama’s first drive, but slipped on the slick grass on a comeback route and couldn’t bring down an errant McElroy pass. Of course, he had his obligatory one drop on an easy quick hitter when he looked up field too soon, but beyond that, he made every catch he should have made. His impact on the game was lessened by State’s complete inability to stop a certain someone I’ll mention in a second.

For Penn State: Even Royster – Another lackluster game for the man who would be the Nittany Lions’ all-time leading rusher. He carried 9 times for just 32 yards, failing to gain any traction against Bama’s defensive front. And, as expected, that failure took away most of State’s play-action threat and made life much more difficult for Robert Bolden. Royster wasn’t alone, though. No other State back fared much better.

The Player of the Game

Trent Richardson – Easy choice here. He rushed 22 times for 144 yards and 1 TD, and added 4 catches for 46 yards. It turned out that Richardson didn’t need any help loosening up the State defense. He came out strong, running over and around (but mostly over) their defensive front on his way to 92 first quarter rushing yards. I always defend Mark Ingram to those who are so quick to anoint Richardson as “already better,” but this game made the argument much tougher. The term “beast” gets thrown around way too much, but I don’t know how else you describe his performance last night.

DID THEY TAKE MY ADVICE?
Just a quick check up to see how my Unsolicited Advice factored into the game:

The Defense must get in Robert Bolden’s head: Yes and no here. In most situations, Bama played a little more vanilla than I would have expected, perhaps not wanting to take to many chances with two of their best pass rushers on the sidelines. Penn State also did a nice job of letting the offensive scheme do most of the work for Bolden. However, when State got into scoring range, Kirby Smart ratcheted up the intensity, and Bolden made bad decisions each and every time.

The Secondary must play sound assignment football: YES. As I said earlier, it wasn’t an assignment issue that gave up the big plays, it was not trusting themselves enough to make the plays. That will come in time. Also give credit to Penn State’s veteran receivers for getting into open spaces in the zone, as I thought they might.

Bama needs to come out throwing: Another yes and no here. After the game, it was stated that the plan was to come out throwing, but a terrible block in the back foul on the opening kickoff backed Bama up against their goal line, and that changed things. And as stated above about Trent, they really didn’t NEED to, after all. However, when they got in better field position to open drives later in the game, you saw that the coaching staff trusted McElroy to sling it around and make plays in the passing game. In particular, Bama’s second drive of the game, played exclusively with 5 players spread out wide, was a thing of beauty. State’s DBs were no match for the Tide’s skill players, and GMac shredded them en route to the first score of the game, a 36 yard TD catch by redshirt freshman Kevin Norwood (reportedly has the best hands on the team), the first of his career.

Bama must protect the right side of the offensive line: No. Interestingly, Bama seemed to be doing the exact opposite for most of the night, leaving DJ Fluker to handle things himself. I think he did well. He had a really nice blitz pickup in an empty backfield that probably saved McElroy’s life. It may have been a bit of a hold, but better to possibly take a holding call than get your quarterback lit up. That guy was coming in HOT. At times, it seemed like Jim McElwain was saying, “Okay, if you’re going to load up to attack the right side, we’re going to put the tight end and the h-back on the left side and just out-man you on runs over there.” That’s why he gets paid the big bucks, folks.

The Kickers must NOT screw things up: They did a nice job. All of Cade Foster’s kickoffs got good distance and hang time. Cody Mandell had solid punts, though it definitely wasn’t as strong as his showing against San Jose State. He takes a long time to get the ball off, too. Jeremy Shelley hit one of those crucial “keep the pressure on them” kicks in the 1st half. However, Foster missed a kick that would have made it 20-0 and really put Penn State behind the 8-ball heading into the half.

FINAL THOUGHTS
You can’t turn your nose up at a 3 touchdown win over a Top 20 team. That said, this was one of those games coaches love. You win comfortably but you have enough problems that you can still chew everyone out on Monday. And really, what did Bama accomplish besides doing what everyone has been saying they would do all year? Time to look ahead to the road trip to Duke, the impending return of Dareus and Ingram, and the final tune-up before the real test of this team begins.

Oh, to be a Duke offensive lineman this week...

Alabama vs. Penn State: The Chase for 14 Begins...

The Crimson Tide's exhibition season is officially over. Ready or not, let the real games begin. This will be the first true test of The Class of 2008. Today we're going to take an in-depth look at this huge matchup: the major storylines heading in, what players to watch, and what Alabama needs to do to win. I hope to make this a weekly feature, at least for the games that really matter (read: don't expect a write up for Georgia State). In our inaugural season here, I'm still in The Process of working out how I want the format to go and whether I want to break this up into separate posts or what, so bear with me. Work in progress.


STORYLINES

A Rivalry Renewed: For a decade around the 80's, this was one of the biggest rivalries in all of college football. The most famous meeting was, of course, the #1 vs. #2 game in the 1979 Sugar Bowl, when Bama made their immortal "Goal Line Stand" to secure the victory and their second consecutive national title, Bear Bryant's last. They would go on to meet 8 times over the next decade, playing the last game in the series in 1990, a 9-0 win for Penn State. Alabama currently holds the series lead 8-5, but the average score for those 13 games is Bama 12.4, Penn State 11.8. Nearly every game played thus far has been an intense, physical battle fought until the very end. That said, most of the players who'll be on the field this Saturday weren't even potty-trained in 1990, if they were alive at all. The last remnant of that era is Joe Paterno, who will surely draw a warm welcome from the 100,000+ tradition-loving Bama fans in attendance. History will loom large over this game, but in a lot of ways, it's a new beginning. For the sake of my heart, I hope it doesn't include a 12-11 final score.

The SEC vs. The Big 10: Aside from the endless debate over whether or not non-BCS schools deserve to play for the national championship, is there a more contentious debate among fans than this?

SEC teams cheat!

Big 10 teams are slow!

The SEC uses low academic standards to get players that would never qualify at a Big 10 school!

You're so slow Northwestern is competitive in your conference!

The SEC gains an unfair advantage by oversigning!

Err...Big 10 teams are slow!

The SEC refuses to come play us in a driving November snowstorm!

Bear Bryant's corpse could beat Joe Paterno's corpse in a footrace!

You know how it goes. (Obviously, the Big 10 fans have spent a lot more time brooding on the myriad ways they are wronged than SEC fans. As is the loser's way.) So it's always a good time when schools from these conferences get together. Or a really LONG week of sports talk radio. Depends on your perspective, I guess. Regardless, you can bet the outcome of this game will fire up the debate anew. Overreactions and hyperbole will abound, and nothing will be settled until the next game, and the game after that, and the game after that...

Just for the record, Alabama is 13-9 against current Big 10 teams, though they've only played 5 games against the Big 10 over the last 20 years. Interestingly enough, this is Bama's first regular season game with a Big 10 team since that 1990 Penn State game. The Tide's last meeting with the Big 10 was against Minnesota in the 2004 Music City Bowl, an agonizing 20-16 loss. (However, I'm obliged to point out that was a Mike Shula team and move that it be stricken from the record.) The Tide's last win against a Big 10 team was in the 1997 Outback Bowl where they defeated Michigan 17-14 in Gene Stallings' last game.

The Internet tells me Penn State is 16-16 against current SEC teams, though they did win their last game against LSU in the Capital One Bowl, which may as well have been played in a slop pin.

Key Players Out for Bama: As of this writing, it appears the Tide will take the field against Penn State without their best offensive and defensive players. Marcell Dareus will definitely miss the game after the university elected not to appeal his 2 game suspension. Mark Ingram seems all but certain to be out, but I'm not ready to completely write him off. Every indication is that Ingram could be healthy enough to play on Saturday, it's just a matter of him not being able to fully participate in practice this week. The old "if you don't practice, you don't play" line. But, as Saban himself has admitted, if anybody is capable of playing without practicing, it's Ingram. If they're both out, it's a boon for the Nittany Lions.

After doing a bit of study on Penn State's offensive line, I remain convinced they don't have any one man who is capable of containing Dareus. He would almost certainly draw a double team all night. With him on the field, it was a distinct possibility the Lions wouldn't have sniffed the endzone. He is THAT imposing, and they are THAT undermanned. With him out, it frees them up to do some different things with their protection that should make life easier for their freshman quarterback.

On the surface, Ingram's loss seems less costly. Why worry when you can plug in Trent Richardson, right? Well, I'll say I feel a lot better about Trent stepping up after the San Jose State game. In limited action, he showed improvement in his ability to pick up the blitz and just his general knowledge of the game. That was my biggest concern. He still didn't show Ingram's vision, but I guess vision is overrated when you can shrug off defenders and move the pile like he can. NOW my concern has moved down the line. What happens in those points in the game when Ingram would sub out for Richardson? Not much of a drop off there. But now you're going from Richardson to Eddie Lacy. That's a drop off. As physically capable as he is, Lacy showed he still has a ways to go in terms of his intelligence this past Saturday. When the head coach goes out of his way to call you out to the world at halftime in a game where you're crushing the opponent, well, you know you've still got a ways to go. I won't be surprised if Lacy puts the ball on the ground again this Saturday, or if he fails to convert on 3rd down because he read his blocks wrong, or if McElroy eats a blitz on his watch.

Penn State's New Man In Charge of the Huddle: Over the course of his career, Joe Paterno (or whoever's been making these decisions at PSU lately) has consistently favored veteran stability over flashy, young talent, sometimes to the dismay of the Penn State fanbase. And yet, there Robert Bolden was, stepping in under center to start the 2010 season. Even more amazing, Bolden was not an early enrollee. He arrived on campus in June and made his case for the starting job in 2 short months. It remains to be seen whether this is more of an endorsement of Bolden or an indictment against his competition. He looked good in the opener against Youngstown State (20-29 for 2389 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT), but he was rarely pressured by the Penguin defensive line, and...well...I shouldn't even have to elaborate on what a step up in competition this is.

I'm honestly surprised the Penn State coaches are letting Bolden start this game. Even if the long term goal for the year was for Bolden to be The Guy, I would have held him back until next week under the guise of "bringing him along slowly." This has the distinct possibility to be one of those games that crushes a young quarterback's spirit and ruins him for life. That's how dominant this Bama defensive front can be (even sans Dareus). That's how crazy the atmosphere at Bryan-Denny Stadium is going to be. That's how maddening Nick Saban's defensive schemes can be (unless you only play 5 downs, in which case you've totally got it figured out. Just ask Colt!). And this is assuming a best case scenario where Dont'a Hightower doesn't just break an arm off and take it with him. (If you don't believe he's ANGRY about losing the 2009 season, just watch him.) The risk outweighs the reward of "experience," in my opinion.
Word of warning, though. I believe the Musburger/Herbstreit crew has the call on this one. Regardless of how he's actually playing, any time something good happens for Penn State that can even remotely be attributed to Bolden's play, Musburger will make like Billy Dee in Brian's Song. "He's got the heart of a giant!"


PLAYERS TO WATCH

In this section, I'll be highlighting a player from each team that must come up big if their team is going to maximize their potential in this game. If they distinguish themselves, odds are their team is doing well.

For Alabama - Julio Jones: Like most teams who line up against Bama's offense, the Nittany Lions' number one priority is going to be to stop the run. The Tide wants to be able to run the ball to play their kind of game. But if they allow Penn State to play this game with 8 guys within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, it becomes the sort of game the visitors can win. In order to break that up, Alabama needs to attack the fringes of the defense early and often, far left, far right, and deep. Bama has the caliber of athletes to win one-on-one battles with Penn State defenders in space. Beat them enough, and they'll have no choice but to move more bodies out there, out of the way of Trent Richardson's running lanes. A guy like Marquis Maze is more than capable of doing this, but it all starts with Julio. In the opener, he looked more explosive and dynamic than ever. He needs to keep that up this week and prove it wasn't just a case of being made to look great by an overmatched defense. More than anything, he definitely doesn't need to revert to 09 form, when he dropped every 3rd pass thrown his way. If that happens, Bama could be in trouble. But if he can routinely beat his man, make all the routine catches, and then shred the inevitable double coverage that will come his way, this game could end in an Alabama rout.

For Penn State - Evan Royster: Royster came out of the gates sluggish in the season opener against Youngstown State, rushing 11 times for just 40 yards and no TDs in a game where most players of his renown are padding stats with ease. You'd certainly expect more from a guy who appears to be a lock to become Penn State's all-time leading rusher. Well, the Lions will NEED him to show up and be that guy in Tuscaloosa. Paterno's teams are known for playing conservative on the road, which means a lot of carries coming his way, but the need to run the football becomes even more urgent with a true freshman at quarterback. Bama hasn't allowed a 100 yard rusher since Benjarvis Green-Ellis managed the feat for Ole Miss in 2007, so I'm not expecting him to have a big statistical day, either way. But he needs to at least be enough of a factor in the game to force the Tide linebackers to respect the run and create play-action opportunities for Bolden. If he can do that, it'll give the kid at QB some easier throws and perhaps open up some big play opportunities down the field when Bama's inexperienced secondary players bite on the fake. If he can't, State may turn to Stephfon Green for a spark, but I really think he's too slight to do the kind of running they need to do against Bama's beastly defensive front. You're not going to beat Bama running wide. That's what they WANT you to do. Penn State is going to need Royster to play up to all 6'1", 228 lbs of his frame to win.


UNSOLICITED ADVICE

Today I've got 5 thoughts on what Alabama needs to do to win on Saturday. For the sake of brevity, I will always assume that the Tide needs to run the ball, stop the run, and avoid turnovers in order to win, unless there is some special significance for that particular game. These should be understood as the basic tenets of the faith.

1. The Defense must get in Robert Bolden's head. With a freshman quarterback making his first road start, this seems obvious. But it's going to be about more than just blitzing the young guy, though there will be plenty of that I'm sure. In traditional Saban form, it will be about creating confusion with the looks, making him question where the next rusher is coming from. And when they don't send anybody, they need to be able to get to him with 3 or 4. It's vital that he never feels comfortable, never trusts what he sees when he takes his drop. If they can shake his confidence early, the game is all but won. As Yoda once said, "Confusion leads to doubt, doubt leads to fear, fear leads to making their asses quit."

Or maybe I'm thinking of another really short guy.

2. The Secondary must play sound assignment football. Look, the Penn State coaches aren't stupid. They know #1 is going to be foremost in Alabama's gameplan. If they didn't know it to begin with, they should after everybody in the media and every dude on the Internet has been talking about it. In anticipation, I expect them to try every trick in the book to keep Bolden from standing in the pocket with a bullseye on his chest all night. Roll-outs, bootlegs, screens, draws, play-action, anything to create as much doubt in the Alabama defense as they're trying to instill in Bolden. They want Bama to play a step slower and then have to chase a moving target. This will be an issue for the entire defense, but it will be of special concern in the secondary with all those young players out on their islands, just waiting to give up big plays. The DBs must play disciplined and not bail on their assignments the moment they think they see something else happening. I'm not overly impressed with Penn State's receivers as athletes, but they're big and experienced. They'll seize on any open spaces in the field and present a big, hard to miss target for Bolden. Stick to your man, stick to your zone. That has to be the mantra for Bama.

3. Bama needs to come out throwing. As eluded to in above, Penn State is going to be determined to stop the run. To beat that, Alabama is going to have to put the fear of the pass in them early, and they have all the personnel to do that. I'm as unimpressed with the athleticism of State's DBs as I am their receivers. Just last week, that unit gave up an 80 yard TD pass against Youngstown State. Julio and Maze can beat these guys. There's no reason not to let them. I think we're well past the point of being afraid that Greg McElroy will throw the game away. In fact, by now, we should have every confidence that he's capable of winning every game. I say, spread them out and let GMac sling it around a bit.

4. Bama must protect the right side of the offensive line. If there's a weak link in this Bama offense, it would have to be redshirt freshman DJ Fluker at right tackle. As physically imposing as he is (6'6", 340 lbs), he's still learning the position. He only began playing offensive tackle in his senior year of high school. Just two years later, here he is starting against Penn State. He was routinely, spectacularly abused by Marcell Dareus and Dont'a Hightower at A-Day, and don't think State didn't notice. By all accounts, Fluker has come a long way since then, but unfortunately for him, he's assured of being targeted by defensive coordinators for the foreseeable future. He may be capable of handling things on his own, he may not. This is not the game to take chances. It would be wise to give him help in obvious passing situations. Line up a tight end next to him, or an H-back or a running back behind him. If you're going to accomplish #3, then #4 must be a priority.

5. The Kickers must NOT screw things up. The dual freshmen kickers and punters played surprisingly well in the opener, but this game represents a significant increase in the amount of pressure they'll be under, both physically and mentally. Will they crack? They better not. While I like Bama to ultimately win this by a 2 TD-ish margin, it's likely going to be a tight game for the first 2 to 2 and a half quarters before Alabama's physicality and humidity wear them down. In that time frame, the kicking game will be critical. Think back to last year: How crucial were Leigh Tiffin and PJ Fitzgerald in all those close games? They weren't spectacular. They were just reliable. In a field position battle, you could always rely on Fitzgerald to give you a solid punt. Will we be able to say the same about Cody Mandell, or Jay Williams if he plays? A shank or a line drive kick at the wrong time could giftwrap points for Penn State. Same with Cade Foster, or Jeremy Shelley, taking over for Tiffin. Bama doesn't beat Tennessee last year without Tiffin's consistency. Even beyond that, think back to several other tight, low-scoring games that Bama had in 09 where Tiffin's ability to reliably tack on 3 when the offense was sputtering kept the Tide in it and at other times did an effective job of keeping the pressure on opposing offenses who were watching the game slip away three points at a time. The offense shouldn't struggle as much this season, but when they have to settle for 3, they need to get 3. When they have to give the ball back to State, they don't need to leave it on their doorstep. These situations will arise tomorrow. These young guys need to deliver.


IN SUMMATION

Over in No Win Scenario, I predicted the final score to be Bama-31, PSU-16, and I think I'm going to stick with that. I was pretty close last week (projection: 48-9, actual: 48-3). I wouldn't be surprised if PSU only scored 10 or 13, but I do think they'll pop enough big plays to get in scoring position a few times. I just doubt Bolden will be able to make scoring throws when the windows get smaller closer to the goal line. Probably worth noting that State's kicker is a career 70%-er and only hit on 40% from 30 yards and beyond last season. Guess I'm giving someone the benefit of a doubt. But as I said in the preseason, close early, then Bama pulls away.

Enjoy the game. Here's hoping that subtitle doesn't come back to haunt me...

The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 9-11

Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.

SATURDAY, SEPT. 11

Georgia @ South Carolina (12pm EST, ESPN)
Both teams pasted non-BCS competition in Week One (South Carolina brained Southern Miss 41-13, while Georgia smoked UL-Lafayette 55-7) and their reward is... a date with each other, in a game that will put one team behind the eightball in the SEC East at the same time that most teams are still trying to sort out their depth charts. Ah, SEC scheduling... you are a fickle mistress. Of the two, South Carolina likely played the tougher opposition; Southern Miss was expected to be decent in C-USA this year, while UL-Lafayette was expected to be one of the dregs of the Sun Belt yet again. So that's probably a point in the Cocks' favor, as is the fact that the game's in Columbia. On the other hand, the Dawgs do get burgeoning star RB Washaun Ealey back from a one-game suspension and displayed the stiffer defense in week one: they held ULL to just 128 yards... and the Ragin' Cajuns lone score accounted for almost half of those yards (60). They're also expected to get all-everything WR AJ Green back. South Carolina conceded 404 yards to the Golden Eagles (although just 13 points), so they may be a bit more porous. There's also the matter of the Cocks' shuffling two quarterbacks, the inexperienced-but-talented Connor Shaw and hte mercurial-but-talented Stephen Garcia. No result in this game would really surprise me too much, but a long history of being burned by South Carolina gives the slightest of edges to Georgia.
THE PICK: GEORGIA 31, SOUTH CAROLINA 28

Michigan @ Notre Dame (330pm EST, NBC)
Ah yes, the now almost-annual "WE'RE BACK~!" Bowl between two fallen powers of the upper midwest. A year ago, Michigan used their thrilling come-from-behind win over the Domers to springboard to a 4-0 start, a national ranking, and a flurry of hosanas from sportswriters. Then the bottom fell out and they staggered to a 5-7 finish that left Rich Rodriguez planted firmly on the hot seat. They're back again this year, fresh off a triumphant 30-10 win over a seemingly-good Connecticut team that couldn't find an answer to Michigan's speed (particularly at the QB position, where Denard Robinson appears to have firmly supplanted last year's signal-caller, Tate Forcier) on defense and was happy to make plenty of errors on offense. The end result was a 30-10 win that left us oohing and aahing over Robinson's fleet feet (and better-than-expected arm), but obscured the fact that Robinson may not have much help on offense (the two running backs put up middling numbers) and the defense (particularly the terrifyingly inexperienced secondary) wasn't tested too much by UConn. Enter: Notre Dame and Brian Kelly, who knows a thing or three about high-powered offenses. The Irish rattled off a solid, but unspectacular 23-12 win over Purdue in week one, with the most notable aspect of their game being an improved running game. QB Dane Crist is still a work-in-progress, but WR Michael Floyd should give the Michigan defensive backs nightmares during film prep this week. Robinson will be a handful for the Notre Dame defense, but the Irish's balanced offense and more stable defense should give them the advantage in this one. Of course, whoever wins will be the subject of considerable fawning for the next several weeks.
THE PICK: NOTRE DAME 34, MICHIGAN 24

Florida State @ Oklahoma (330pm EST, ABC)
The first of three national championship game rematches on tap for Saturday is the least-heralded of the three, but may provide the most fireworks, given the potent offenses on display and the question marks that litter both defenses (especially in the secondary). Florida State rolled up on Samford in week one (59-6), but c'mon -- it's SAMFORD. It's only even a little notable because they failed to do that against similar teams in the dying days of the Bowden Era. The Seminoles racked up almost 500 yards (481) of offense and 59 points in the game and did so with remarkably balanced playcalling: 26 running plays and 27 pass plays. Meanwhile, Oklahoma found themselves in a dogfight with Utah State and needed a late interception to clinch a 31-24 win. Utah State's a more respectable foe than Samford, but still. The Sooner pass defense was gouged for 341 yards and a pair of touchdowns by Utah State; now they have to deal with a potential Heisman candidate in Florida State's Christian Ponder (who had an efficient, but ho hum game: 12/14, 167 yards, 4 TD/1 INT). On offense, the Sooners rode the legs of DeMarco Murray as much as humanly possible: 35 carries for 218 yards and a pair of scores. Of course, they needed to do that because Landry Jones struggled, going just 17/36 for 217 yards, two scores, and two interceptions. It's unclear if he has any decent receiving options beyond Ryan Broyles (9-142-2), which may mean that all Florida State has to do is double Broyles and Jones will crumble. The Sooners have been nigh-unbeatable at home under Bob Stoops, but that mark is going to be put to a stiff test by the Seminoles unless Oklahoma can improve dramatically over the course of this week. In a shootout, give me the better quarterback -- and that's clearly Ponder.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 38, OKLAHOMA 31

Miami @ Ohio State (340pm EST, ESPN)
Penn State-Alabama may get the primetime spotlight, but there are plenty of reasons to think that that game may not live up to the advance billing. On the other hand, Miami-Ohio State should be a true heavyweight showdown and one that confirms or denies a few widely-held beliefs about this season. What was one of the greatest games in the history of the sport almost eight years ago would have been a hideous mismatch as recently as 2-3 years ago, but with the stabilization of the Miami program, these two programs are much closer to even strength again. For Miami, a win here would be loudest signal yet that the 'Canes are back after their mid-aughts time in the wilderness; going into the Horseshoe and knocking off a national title contender like Ohio State would be an impressive feat. For Ohio State, a win here would solidify their credentials as a national title threat and prove that the Buckeyes can once again beat good teams loaded with elite athletes; that point was partially proven by their impressive win over Oregon, but from an athletic/talent standpoint, Miami bears a greater resemblance to the SEC and USC teams that have bedeviled Ohio State in recent years and a win over them would be long-awaited vindication.

The game also features two talented, but erratic, signal-callers in Terrelle Pryor and Jacory Harris, both of whom have alternated moments of brilliance with moments of head-scratching bewilderment all too often throughout their careers. The prevailing opinion seems to be that the Ohio State coaches are loosening the reins on Pryor and letting him throw the ball more, and while that's largely true, they've also only "set him free" against teams that had sub-par pass defenses (a category which also includes Oregon in last year's Rose Bowl). Against teams with stingier defenses (Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa), the Buckeye braintrust has kept Pryor under wraps to an extent and focused on controlling the game through the ground (where they can turn to talented backs Dan Herron and Brandon Saine, as well as newcomer Jammal Berry); it will be very interesting to see what approach they take on Saturday against a solid Miami defense. There's no such doubt about Harris; Miami will win or lose based on his arm... they just hope he keeps the mistakes to a minimum and slices the Ohio State secondary apart. In many ways, Miami seems like a poor matchup for Ohio State, so it's tempting to pick them, but favoring Randy Shannon over Jim Tressel is a step too far at this point.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE 21, MIAMI 17

Penn State @ Alabama (7pm EST, ESPN)
The nominal main event of the day, based on its primetime placement and the deluge of stories we'll get all week reminiscing about past encounters being Paterno and the Bear, but it might be an upset if the game itself is actually very close. Penn State brings a true freshman quarterback (Robert Bolden), a rebuilding defense, and an offense that couldn't get an All-Big Ten running back like Evan Royster untracked against the likes of Youngstown State (40 yards on 11 carries) into a night game in Tuscaloosa against the defending national champions. Gulp. To be fair, Alabama isn't playing with a full deck, either -- reigning Heisman winner Mark Ingram is expected to sit out again and Bama's latest terrormonster on the defensive line, Marcel Dareus, is serving the second game of a two-week suspension. On the other hand, they do have a much more experienced passer in Greg McElroy and a running back in Trent Richardson that may be every bit as good as Ingram. And while the defense is without Dareus, they're not short of stars (like LB Dont'a Hightower) that could make Bolden's road debut disastrous. The Bama defense seems vulnerable through the secondary and Penn State has a quality group of receivers, but it may be for naught if the offensive line can't give Bolden any protection or open up any holes for Royster to ease the pressure on Bolden. It's hard to see much joy in Paternoville after this game.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, PENN STATE 13

Oregon @ Tennessee (7pm, ESPN2)
No week two opponents beat their week one opponents as senseless as these two teams; Oregon disembowled New Mexico to the tune of 72-0, while Tennessee mauled Tennessee-Martin 50-0. That 50-0 win got the Derek Dooley Era off to a better-than-expected start, but it's difficult to see it continuing this week. Oregon has had some pratfalls in early-season road games (Boise State in 2009, Oklahoma in 2004), as well as some near-pratfalls (Mississippi State in 2003, Houston in 2005, Fresno State in 2006, Purdue in 2008) and, to be sure, Pac-10 teams not named USC have a dismal record when traveling outside of their natural timezone for a road game. A highly-regarded Cal team waltzed into Tennessee in 2006 and left bloodied and battered, 35-18... and it wasn't even really that close. But Oregon's early season road slip-ups both happened to teams that wound up going undefeated and playing in BCS bowls; even the most hardened Vol supporter might not believe this year's team could do that. Dominating Tennessee-Martin is one thing; doing the same against an Oregon team loaded with speed and a talent is something else entirely. The Vols have a few things in their favor -- the Ducks will have a young quarterback making his first road start and the in-game atmosphere should be raucous (the time difference probably won't be quite as big a factor as it would have been if the game was being played around noon or even in the afternoon) -- but it still doesn't seem like enough to make a difference here.
THE PICK: OREGON 34, TENNESSEE 17

Big Ten Preview

2009 Standings
Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 (7-1)
Iowa Hawkeyes 11-2 (6-2)
Penn State Nittany Lions 11-2 (6-2)
Wisconsin Badgers 10-3 (5-3)
Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 (5-3)
Michigan State Spartans 6-7 (4-4)
Purdue Boilermakers 5-7 (4-4)
Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 (3-5)
Illinois Fighting Illini 3-9 (2-6)
Michigan Wolverines 5-7 (1-7)
Indiana Hoosiers 4-8 (1-7)

Returning Leaders: Passing
Ben Chappell, Indiana, Sr (268 of 428 for 2942 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin, Sr (211 of 328 for 2705 yds, 16 TD, 11 INT)
Kirk Cousins, Mich St, Jr (198 of 328 for 2680 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Adam Weber, Minnesota, Sr (191 of 267 for 2582 yds, 13 TD, 15 INT)
Ricky Stanzi, Iowa, Sr (171 of 304 for 2417 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)

Returning Leaders: Rushing
John Clay, Wisconsin, Jr (287 carries for 1517 yds, 18 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Evan Royster, Penn State, Sr (205 carries for 1169 yds, 6 TD, 5.7 ypc)
Ralph Bolden, Purdue, Jr (200 carries for 935 yds, 9 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Adam Robinson, Iowa, Soph (181 carries for 834 yds, 5 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Terrelle Pryor, Ohio St, Jr (162 carries for 779 yds, 7 TD, 4.8 ypc)

Returning Leaders: Receiving
Keith Smith, Purdue, Sr (91 rec for 1100 yds, 6 TD, 7.6 rec/game)
Tandon Doss, Indiana, Jr (77 rec for 962 yds, 5 TD, 6.4 rec/game)
Damarlo Belcher, Indiana, Jr (61 rec for 770 yds, 5 TD, 5.1 rec/game)
DeVier Posey, Ohio St, Jr (60 rec for 828 yds, 8 TD, 4.6 rec/game)
Nick Toon, Wisconsin, Jr (54 rec for 805 yds, 4 TD, 4.2 rec/game)

Returning Leaders: Tackles
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (154 total, 11.8 tackles/game)
Ross Homan, Ohio St, Sr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Ian Thomas, Indiana, Jr, LB (95 total, 7.9 tackles/game)
Brian Rolle, Ohio St, Sr, LB (94 total, 7.2 tackles/game)
Eric Gordon, Mich St, Sr, LB (93 total, 7.1 tackles/game)

Returning Leaders: Sacks
Adrian Clayborn, Iowa, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue, Sr, DE (11.0)
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (9.0)
Cameron Heyward, Sr, DE (6.5)

Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Tyler Sash, Iowa, Jr, SS (6 interceptions)
Ross Homan, Ohio State, Sr, LB (5)
Brett Greenwood, Iowa, Jr, FS (3)
Brian Peters, Northwestern, Jr, SS (3)
Kyle Theret, Minnesota, Jr, S (3)

BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 10 WITH THE ZEALOTS

Illinois Fighting Illini 

Chris (Prediction: #10): Bloop de bloop, de bweedley deep de deep de derk. Ron Zook is A COACH! For those of you who don't watch South Park and didn't understand the Rob Schneider joke reference, you're missing out. But the point is, Zook is a person masquerading as a coach. The only thing that we have to do now is figure out how long the act is in town. Newsflash: It's over at the end of this year. Also, I'm not even going to explain why I think the Illini will finish in 10th. It's Ron Zook isn't it? That's explanation enough.

J Martin (Prediction: #9): I never bought into the Juice Williams hype, but even I was astounded at just how badly the Illini fell on their face in 2009. I’m even more astounded that Ron Zook still has a job. I guess you can line up Illinois next to Maryland and Colorado as the schools that don’t care about football. But they’re still going to field a team this year, so I guess I’ll talk about them. It’s looking like a total reboot on the offensive side of the ball with new OC Paul Petrino needing to find a new QB, a new top receiver, and a consistent rushing attack, which they’ve lacked since Rashard Mendenhall bolted. (I really wish Daniel Dufrene had panned out, if only because my “Dufrene! Party of 6!” TD call was a big party hit.) Defensively, they’re a really underwhelming group, even though they return a fair amount of experience. Basically, it’s just a lame duck team. And they have two lower division teams on their schedule, so they’ll have to win 7 to get to a bowl. And that ain’t happening. I think everybody here will be through and waiting for the new coach by November.

Ross (Prediction: #9): The good news is that they return 3/5 of the offensive line and one of the league's most underrated running backs (Mikel LeShoure) and don't have to deal with the Juice Williams Experience anymore. On the other hand, they're on yet another new offensive coordinator and Ron Zook is still there. There are a few more faces back on defense, but really the last two years have made it crystal clear that it doesn't matter how much returning talent the Illini have; so long as Ron Zook is there, he'll find a way to screw it up. Skipping Iowa and Wisconsin on the schedule is a plus, but a three-game stretch against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State could crush their season.

Indiana Hoosiers 

Chris (Prediction: #9): Indiana should improve gradually on offense as the year goes along, bringing back a lot of key pieces to the puzzle in the way of skill position players and just enough on the offensive line. As for defense...yeah, well...there's always next year.

J Martin (Prediction: #10): Indiana finished 1-7 at the bottom of the conference for the second straight season in 2009, but if just a handful of plays had gone the other way, they could have easily been 3-5 and playing in a bowl game. Because of that, they seem to have the most upward momentum of the worst programs in the conference. Unfortunately, when you’re at the level of an Indiana, progress isn’t always a straight line because you don’t have the talent on deck to pick up where the departing seniors left off. This year, Indiana will be feeling that the most on the defensive side of the ball, where they lose 9 of their top 13 contributors from last season. Not that the Hoosiers were world-beaters on D last year, but they were experienced, plucky guys who helped Indiana win the turnover battle in 7 of their 12 games (while their quarterback was busy throwing 15 interceptions). So its definitely a rebuilding year on that side of the ball. And the offense is simply not good enough to make up the difference. Their 4 patsy non-conference games should allow them to match 09’s win total, but beyond that, the going gets tough. This won’t be the year they take a step forward.

Ross (Prediction: #10): Indiana should have a very strong offense, considering they return nine starters -- everyone but a pair of linemen. QB Ben Chappell was pretty productive a year ago and he has all of his primary targets back again this year. So that's good. But an already bad defense returns only four starters and loses virtually all of its best players, too. That's a problem. They'd better get their wins early, too, since the schedule has them close with games against Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue. A year ago Indiana was good enough to hang in there for a while against Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State; they were also bad enough to choke away all those games and get destroyed, 47-7, by Indiana. Their offense might be good enough to steal a game or two in the Big Ten, but they're going to need to score a lot of points to overcome their leaky defense.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Chris (Prediction: #2): My bonehead prediction of 2009: "Iowa does not stand a chance against GT's triple option in the bowl game. They're going to get throttled." Whoops...looks like I've got some splainin' to do on that one. 1. I was wrong. 2. Did I mention I was wrong? Like WAY wrong? So yeah, my bad in my failed attempt to pick against the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz is an amazing program coach. He might not be flashy or in a league of his own, but he knows how to year in and year out put a good football team on the field. Defensively they should be among the nation's best again, returning 8 starters on that side of the ball. The concern is on offense, while returning Ricky Stanzi and some skill position guys, they have a completely revamped O-line. This team was a couple of injuries away from an undefeated season, although if you look at the first game, this team was a point away from being beaten at home by Northern Iowa too. So I'm not ready to call a team that loses so much from a sub-par offense a world-beater. The truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes...and that's why I think that Iowa will finish second to Ohio State and its arsenal of weapons on offense.

J Martin (Prediction: #2): I love this Iowa team. On defense, they look set to pick up right where they left off in 2009. Yes, they lost two very good linebackers and a good cornerback, but virtually everyone else who made a significant contribution to last year's unit is back. On offense, I expect them to be better than in 09. The offensive line doesn't look as dominant on paper, but OL's are Kirk Ferentz's specialty, so I have no doubt he'll put a quality line on the field. The main area where they need improvement is turnovers, particularly Ricky Stanzi's interceptions. If he can cut his 09 number in half, the Hawkeyes will be tough to beat. And I think he can do that. I think when presumptive running back starter Jewel Hampton went down with a preseason injury, thrusting that job into the hands of a couple of freshmen, it put the offense into a situation they weren't entirely comfortable with. Namely, it required Stanzi to make more plays than maybe he needed to at that point in his development. This year Hampton is back, and those freshmen (who didn't play half bad as the season progressed) now have a year's worth of experience under their belts. That's going to create more of a comfort zone for Stanzi and allow him to be more efficient with the football. I have this team below Ohio State right now, but just by a hair. The schedule definitely plays into their favor as they get their top 3 conference opponents at home. Iowa just needs to prove to me that they can win the lesser games consistently, like say against Northwestern, right along with the big games before I ever put them at #1.

Ross (Prediction: #2): Everything hinges on the development of the offensive line and the team's ability to stay healthy. The defense looks absolutely loaded and the offense is strong at the skill positions. But if guys start going down, there isn't a huge amount of depth at most positions. And the offensive line is still a big question mark, given that they have to work in three new starters who haven't had a lot of experience thus far. Still, if the injury gods smile upon them and the offensive line develops into a respectable outfit, this is a team built to go far. They get all of their toughest foes at home and the schedule is fairly manageable. On the other hand, their history against OSU is absolutely miserable, which makes it hard to pick them over OSU for now.

Michigan Wolverines

Chris (Prediction: #5): So Michigan started the season 5-2, and because of his stellar play everyone was lapping up the Wolverines and true freshman quarterback Tate Forcier. EHHHHHHHHH! Wrong answer. Survey says...the Wolves lost their remaining five games, and with exception of Purdue, they weren't close. So Michigan, what's up? Let's talk. For one, I have absolute faith that Forcier is a gamer and that if anyone is going to elevate that program back to where it was, it's him. The way he played as a true freshman coming into a situation that bad and with such moxie, WOW! Matt Barkley played like dog excrement compared to Forcier, especially considering that Barkley had skill position talent galore around him. Also, how long can Rich Rod and Michigan really be bad? I mean really? The guy's a winner. He may do it illegally, but he does win. The question is how will the ongoing NCAA probe affect the Maize and Blue? I think this is the year though, all things considered, that Michigan gets it right. I'm either way wrong or way right on this one. Here's to hoping I'm way right that one of college football's true traditional powerhouses comes back strong. Even Buckeyes fans want to see the rivalry game actually be somewhat competitive again!

J Martin (Prediction: #7): I’ll admit it’s really difficult for me to get a handle on Michigan this year for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t know who the quarterback is going to be. RichRod’s offense is totally dependent on who the trigger man is. In his heart of hearts, I think he wants Denard Robinson to be the QB because he’s the most dangerous runner of the two, but Forcier has shown more as a passer and doesn’t seem to be going away (unless he gets his feelings hurt and transfers, as rumored). If Forcier is the QB, Michigan is probably going to be in the .500 range, like last year, and maybe go to a bowl. If Robinson is the QB, they could go anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3. Secondly, I just don’t know how this team is going to respond to the axe hanging over Rodriguez’s neck. Are they going to rally around him and fight for a bowl, or are they going to quit and wait to start over with the new coach? Last year began under a similar cloud, and they started out inspired, but then they seemed to give up after dropping games to Michigan State and Iowa. If this year’s team doesn’t have more heart, this season could get REALLY ugly, because I think UConn has the team to show up in Ann Arbor and clean their clocks in week 1. I'm kinda on the fence, but I hate the 3-3-5 defense that Rich is bringing back, so I guess I'll be on the side of pessimism.

Ross (Prediction: #7): It seems increasingly unlikely that the Michigan defense will be able to stop a soul in 2010 (especially through the air), which means that the offense is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting to win games. Luckily, they return a pretty fair amount of talent on offense (3/5 of the OL, QB, a pair of receivers, and a tight end) and showed signs last year of evolving into the sort of high-powered offense that's been a staple of most Rodriguez-coached teams. But that defense... that defense is scary (and not in a good way), especially the secondary, which is an utter wasteland after multiple injuries and defections of highly-ranked talent. The schedule doesn't do them any favors, either; four of their final six Big Ten games are against Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.

Michigan State Spartans

Chris (Prediction: #6): My logic here? Good coach, okay team...not as good as at least four of the teams ahead of them in the Big Ten (may be faltering on my Michigan prediction already), but is definitely not as bad as the 5 teams below. Middle of the road Michigan State can knock people off, or lose to questionable teams. But in the end it all equals out and the Spartans should improve at least one game from their 6-7 season a year ago. You know they should really make some kind of rule with 6-6 bowl teams that if they lose and go 6-7 than they should have to play another 6-7 team that lost and the winner gets back to .500. The loser is disqualified from playing in a bowl the next year because there is no way a team like that should have ever played in a bowl in the first place. Who's with me?

J Martin (Prediction: #6): The Spartans suffered somewhat of a let down in 2009. Despite some turnover on offense, the defense was expected to carry the team to another 9 or 10 win season. But early in the year, the secondary completely imploded, and MSU ended up with one of the worst pass defenses in the conference. That exacerbated issues with a young offense, and the next thing you know, they’re struggling to make a bowl game. Well, the defense is slightly less experienced, with many of their losses coming in the secondary. Your first instinct might be to expect another bad year, but my opinion is that when you’re as bad as the Spartans were in 09, a bunch of fresh faces can be just what you need. I’m looking for a big rebound, led by returning senior linebacker Greg Jones. I also expect more out of the offense now that they’ve settled in on one quarterback and all those freshman running backs have had a year to mature in the system. They still won’t be ready to compete with the best in the conference, but they should return to 8-9 win form.

Ross (Prediction: #5): MSU looks a lot like Iowa on offense: lots of returning talent at the skill positions and a lot of question marks along the offensive line. QB Kirk Cousins might be the best quarterback in the Big Ten and he has a slew of returning targets to throw to, which should lead to some impressive passing stats for MSU. They also have some talented RBs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker; they saw a lot of action last year as true freshmen and that experience should serve them well this year. Still, all of that offensive firepower could be for naught if the new look offensive line can't open holes for the backs and keep Cousins upright -- and that's a definite concern for now. The defense is stacked at LB with veterans Greg Jones and Eric Gordon and newcomers William Gholston and Max Bullough. On the other hand, they'll need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and in the secondary. Still, if they get some quality play from the newcomers in the defense and the offensive line gels quickly, this could be a surprise team in the Big Ten.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Chris (Prediction: #11): Gone are the days of Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney rushing for 1,000 yards in the same year (in fact gone are those days in the NFL too, apparently...despite the fact that they are on different teams). Minnesota's offense will improve by way of returning a whopping 9 starters (which isn't saying much, it's hard to get worse than 109th in offense...you have to try pretty hard to do that). YAY! Whew. Wait, but they're still ranked 11th in the Big 10 (that sounds funny even to this day, I know, I chuckle)? So what's the bad news? Oh yeah, they return two on a D that was below average a year ago, including none in their front 7. YIKES! All Gophers fans can do is sit back and think about the days of their dreadlock tandems of running backs. Those were the days...

J Martin (Prediction: #11): It’s going to be a rough year in Minneapolis. I haven’t thought much of the Gophers for the past two seasons, but they’ve managed enough hocus pocus with the schedule to get bowl eligible in both. This season, the schedule is brutal, as they play USC and draw the consensus top 4 teams in the conference, and four of those games are at home (basically wasting home field advantage on teams they have no chance of beating). Even if they were good, they’d struggle. But despite returning nearly the entire offense, they lose their best player by far (Eric Decker), and Adam Weber is not a good quarterback at all. The defense was actually respectable last season, but they return only 2 starters in 2010. Minnesota has a nice new stadium. After this season, it might be time for the administration there to bring in a coach who can field a football team to match it.

Ross (Prediction: #11): As it stands, they're slated to return all of two starters and they'll be breaking in a new defensive coordinator, too. Expecting the Gophers to stop too many teams is a fool's errand. On the bright side, they return nine on offense, including fourth-year starter Adam Weber at QB. Of course, Weber is also working under his third or fourth different offensive coordinator, has regressed each year he's been there, and is without his safety blanket target (Eric Decker). Aside from Decker, they also return most of his top receivers, their leading rusher from a year ago, and their entire offensive line. But like Zook, Tim Brewster has managed the art of getting less out of his team and it's hard not to see them crumbling under the weight of a tough schedule (they entertain USC, Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa at home this year).

Northwestern Wildcats

Chris (Prediction: #7): Take your pick. It will be Purdue or Northwestern. Just like the middle of the Pac-10, this is truly hard to decide. Neither team brings much back, but Northwestern brings back 12 starters off of a surprising 8-5 team vs. Purdue bringing back 10 starters off of a decidedly average team a year ago. It's a fight to the finish, the only difference is, the winner only wins 7th place.

J Martin (Prediction: #5): Pat Fitzgerald has a really good thing going at Northwestern. And while I don’t see his program ever breaking through to contend for the Big 10 title, I also don’t see why he can’t keep winning about 8 games a year. He accomplishes the things that Bobby Johnson used to get credit for almost doing at Vanderbilt. The past 2 years, his Wildcats have finished 4th in the conference at 5-3. He generates this kind of consistency because his teams are always going to be focused around playing sound defense. This season, they return their entire starting linebacker unit. Their biggest challenge will be replacing the underrated Mike Kafka at QB, but presumptive starter Dan Persa gave Kafka a run for his money last off-season, and as a junior, he’s very familiar with the system. Their schedule divides neatly into two halves, and Northwestern could easily be 6-0 at the break. That could make them an extremely dangerous opponent to face late in the year, because they’ll already be bowl eligible and playing with house money, as they say. Revenge-minded Iowa should be wary heading into Evanston.

Ross (Prediction: #6): On the flipside of Michigan State, you have a team like Northwestern, who returns 4/5 of their offensive line but will be breaking in new starters at QB and two of the three starting WR spots. Still, Northwestern has usually done a fine job of finding unheralded players to come in and play at a high level at those spots. The defense features a lot of returning experience at LB and CB, but will be fielding new faces in the secondary and along the defensive line (where some newbie has the unpleasant task of trying to replace stud DE Corey Wooten). But Fitzgerald has proven himself to be an excellent coach, so it's not wise to bet against them too much. They'll probably lose to a team or two that they shouldn't, but they'll also beat a team or two that they shouldn't and will probably be a pesky out for each team on their schedule.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Chris (Prediction: #1): The Buckeyes are the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 10 and possibly even exorcise their demons by winning a national championship (though the Buckeyes do NOT want to see an SEC team meeting them there. Oh please, oh please, oh pretty please football gods! We knew you'd understand, we just can't beat the best of the best). Terrelle Pryor has been lambasted from the beginning of his sophomore year, the time in which fans thought he should have arrived and reached his potential. Instead, Pryor took baby steps until the Rose Bowl and then blew up. Fluke? I don't know, but I doubt it. I think some part of that guy has turned the corner. We'll see how much Pryor has grown when the Bucks go to Iowa for what will probably decide the conference champion. The defense lost some key cogs, but when does a Jim Tressel coached team not play good D? And they will again. Also running back is a concern. Nobody screams the next Beanie Wells. But I think Ohio State is a safe bet to at least take the Big 10, although I'm choosing not to speculate beyond that right now.

J Martin (Prediction: #1): I vacillated back and forth between the Buckeyes and Iowa as to which team was the best in the conference. It was a tough call. Both are loaded. Ultimately, I went with Ohio State. There isn't much negative you can say about this team on paper. They return a wealth of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. The only real question is which Terrelle Pryor is going to show up this season. The one from the Rose Bowl, or the one that had people calling for him to be moved to receiver? My guess is that he ends up close to Rose Bowl form. And if that's the case, the only thing standing in their way is a conference schedule that sees them go on the road to face their two biggest challenges this season, Iowa and Wisconsin. That almost tipped me in favor of the Hawkeyes. But then I remembered: these guys have developed into Big 10 road warriors over the past few years. Barring their epic brain fart against Purdue last year, the Buckeyes haven't lost a Big 10 away game since losing to Penn State in 2005. Kirk Ferentz does a great job at Iowa, but Jim Tressel has this program humming along on a much higher level than anybody else in the Big 10, and they know how to take care of business. They should win their 6th straight conference title, and maybe play in the BCS title game for the 4th time in the past decade if they can avoid another early season big game letdown against The U. They will then, of course, lose.

Ross (Prediction: #1): They return nine on offense and six on defense and have been so consistently dominant in the Big Ten that it's difficult to pick against them, no matter how much I'd like to. If the progress Pryor showed in the Rose Bowl was more than a one-game blip, the offense should be truly terrifying, as they'll have a dangerous passing game to go along with one of the nation's best rushing attacks. The defense has some key holes to fill (mainly, three spots along the defensive line), but OSU has done a better job of reloading than anyone else in the league, especially on defense... so it would be foolish to bet against them. Particularly since the guys they have starting this year are not fresh-faced newbies; they've seen a fair amount of action. The main potential red flag from them is the schedule, which has them facing their two toughest league rivals, Iowa and Wisconsin, on the the road.


Penn State Nittany Lions

Chris (Prediction: #4): The Big 10 is really a 3-team race (sorry if this is the first you've heard of this JoePa), but Penn State is right behind that group. Kevin Newsome should be a capable replacement for Darryl Clark in the athleticism department, but Clark brought such intangibles and leadership to the position that I think it is unlikely to expect Newsome to come right in and resume that role. In fact, he may never reach that level. To be honest, I don't know whether to be more worried about the offense or the defense. Neither will be bad, but neither will be spectacular. Because of Evan Royster I will go with the D. Royster's workload will probably increase, which is cause for concern because his statline DRAMATICALLY decreased a year ago, to the tune of 500 or so yards. However, I myself am in love with Royster's game, and I think he'll recover this year, posting equally as gaudy stats as two years ago.

J Martin (Prediction: #4): On paper, this looks like a very mediocre Penn State team to me. They have the schedule to still win 9 games and play in a nice bowl, but I don’t think they’re a threat to Iowa or Ohio State. Obviously, the main problem on offense is quarterback. They have no one with any experience. They have a couple of incoming freshmen who are promising (I hear Robert Bolden is impressing in camp), but knowing Joe Paterno, he’s going to go with the most steady upper classman until the wheels fall off. Of course, the “upper classmen” in question are sophomores, so regardless, the passing game is going to be WAY down. That means it’s going to fall to Evan Royster to carry the offense on the ground. And while he’s a talented guy, that’s going to be somewhat of a new role for him, and its difficult to say if he’s cut out for it. Defensively, they should be typically stout, which will be their saving grace. However, with the loss of their top 3 linebackers, as well as Jared Odrick on the line, they may not be an elite defense in 2010.

Ross (Prediction: #4): PSU returns plenty on offense (the majority of the offensive line, all their top receivers, and Evan Royster and Stephon Green at RB)... but they have a major question mark at QB, where they still haven't settled on a starter to replace Daryll Clark. That's definitely a concern, especially since they have to go on the road to Alabama and Iowa in their first five weeks. The defense returns just five and will need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and a trio of new linebackers. Fortunately, aside from OSU, no one in the Big Ten has done a better job of just reloading on defense than PSU; they have some highly-talented players waiting in the wings to step in and start at LB and along the defensive line. Really, the thing that damages this team the most might be the schedule: they should be a team that improves as the season progresses, but their schedule features some of their toughest games at the start of the season. That could be difficult to overcome.

Purdue Boilermakers

Chris (Prediction: #8): Take a look at Northwestern for my logic. If I'm wrong, see Robert Marve as the reason.

J Martin (Prediction: #8): The Boilermakers have been a better team than their overall record might have led you to believe the past 2 years. In 2009, they actually went 4-4 in the Big 10, and, if not for a slip-up against Northern Illinois, they would have gone to a bowl. This year’s team looks very similar to the past two, in the sense that they don’t wow you with their number of returning starters, but they’re not dreadfully undermanned either. So with their home-and-home series with Oregon coming to an end, and a much lesser opponent coming on, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t achieve bowl eligibility. They should win at least 3 of their non-conference games (Notre Dame is a toss-up), and they get three key conference “swing” games at home (Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana). The x-factor here will be new quarterback Robert Marve. If he finally has his head on straight, look out. He has an excellent receiving target in Keith Smith, and they can make this offense dangerous.

Ross (Prediction: #8): Robert Marve is a reason for hope as he takes over the QB position (unless you remember him imploding at Miami two years ago, although Purdue fans would rather you didn't mention that), and he has some good targets to throw to (particularly WR Keith Smith)... if the rebuilt offensive line (2/5 starters back) can give him enough protection to find them. RB is a possible trouble spot; Ralph Bolden emerged as a real threat in the Big Ten a year ago, but suffered a significant knee injury in spring practice and may not be ready to go this fall. The defense features one bona fide star (DE Ryan Kerrigan, the best player in the Big Ten that no one talks about) and a number of returning starters in the front seven (3/4 of the defensive line, all three linebackers)... but a host of new faces in the secondary. So Purdue could be in line for quite a few shootouts in 2010; we'll see just how far Marve has come from his Miami days.

Wisconsin Badgers

Chris (Prediction: #3): Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema has filled in seamlessly for Barry Alvarez as the Badgers head coach. He maintained the power running game that his predecessor thrived on, with big backs like P.J. Hill and now John Clay. Expect the Badgers to be pretty amazing offensively, where they return every starter but their fullback. Defensively it might be a work in progress, but the offense has such firepower and can control the clock with their style of play that I don't think the D's flaws will stand out. Wisconsin was only one of 6 teams that averaged 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing a season ago. Expect them to be in that category again, and given a slip up by one of the two above them, they could be seeing roses.

J Martin (Prediction: #3): The recipe for success remains the same as it has for the past 15 or 20 years: take a big, fat running back, line him up behind an even bigger, fatter offensive line, and just run over people. This season, the Badgers have an incredibly experienced big, fat offensive line (109 total starts), and return the big, fat Big 10 offensive player of the year, not to mention another good one in Montee Ball. In fact, they return just about everyone of consequence on offense except Garrett Graham. Scott Tolzien wasn’t overly impressive at QB last year, but he came on strong towards the end, and this team doesn’t need him to be more than an effective game manager. If he cuts his interception total in half, Wisconsin will be tough to beat. They have a very easy non-conference schedule and a favorable conference slate, including Ohio State at home. The only trick is that they have to go to Iowa to play the very next week. But if they take care of business against the Buckeyes at home, they could very well ride that momentum to a victory over the Hawkeyes. Of course…I could also see them going into the tank against Iowa if they lose to OSU. So that’s the critical stretch. 10 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team.

Ross (Prediction: #3): The Badgers are loaded on offense, especially along the line where they return all five starters. Those five behemoths should open plenty of holes for John Clay and Montee Ball and give Scott Tolzien time to hit open receivers on play-action passes. On the other hand, their defense returns only six starters (including just one on the defensive line) and they've been banged up in preseason camp, with two of their best returning defenders (LB Chris Borland and SS Jay Valai) missing time with injuries. The schedule is also a little nasty, as they get Ohio State and Iowa back-to-back. Bielema's done a solid job of beating the teams he should beat at Wisco, but he's struggled to get over the hump and beat the top dogs.

CFBZ Predicted Big Ten 2010 Standings
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Iowa Hawkeyes
3. Wisconsin Badgers
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Northwestern Wildcats
7. Michigan Wolverines
8. Purdue Boilermakers
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Indiana Hoosiers
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Pre-Season Preview: Penn St Nittany Lions

2009 Record: 11-2 (6-2 in Big Ten)
2009 Bowl: Capital One Bowl (beat LSU 19-17)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: #9
Head Coach: Joe Paterno (394-129-3, 86-50 in Big Ten)
Non-Conference Schedule: Youngstown State (9/4), at Alabama (9/11), Kent State (9/18), Temple (9/25)

2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 28.8 points per game (5th in Big Ten)
Rushing Yards/Game: 169 (5th in Big Ten)
Passing Yards/Game: 237 (5th in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 406 (2nd in Big Ten) 

2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 12.2 points per game (1st in Big Ten, 3rd in Nation)
Rushing Yards/Game: 89 (2nd in Big Ten, 6th in Nation)
Passing Yards/Game: 184 (3rd in Big Ten)
Total Yards/Game: 274 (2nd in Big Ten, 9th in Nation)

2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +0.46 per game (3rd in Big Ten)
Penalties: 31 yards per game (1st in Big Ten, 3rd in Nation)

Returning Starters
Offense: 7
Defense: 5
Kicker/Punter: 1

Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Kevin Newsome, Soph (8 of 11 for 66 yds)
Rushing: RB Evan Royster, Sr (205 carries for 1169 yds, 6 TD, 5.7 ypc, 89 ypg
Receiving: WR Derek Moye, Jr (48 rec, 785 yds, 6 TD, 3.7 rec/game, 16 ypc, 60 ypg)
Tackles: FS Drew Astorino, Jr (62)
Sacks: DE Jack Crawford, Jr (5.5)
Interceptions: S Nick Sukay, Jr (2)

2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #23
Lindy's: #24
Mark Schlabach: #19
Phil Steele: #18
Rivals: #24
Scout: #13
Sporting News: #32
Sports Illustrated: #19
USA Today Coaches Poll: #14

2010 Pre-Season Big Ten Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #4
Phil Steele: #2 (tied with Iowa)
Sports Illustrated: #3 (tied with Wisconsin)

Bowl Predictions:
Athlon Sports: Outback Bowl (vs. South Carolina)
Phil Steele: Capital One Bowl (vs. Auburn)

Last year Penn State beat everyone on their schedule with the exception of Iowa and Ohio State. Penn State had a top notch defense (which lost it's top 3 tacklers, it's leading sack man and it's leader in interceptions) and a senior leader at QB. This year there are a lot of questions for the Penn State Nittany Lions including an early date at the defending National Champion Alabama Crimson Tide. We turned to Devon Edwards of the Nittany White Out to find out what to expect from the 2010 Nittany Lions.


What are the biggest strengths and most glaring weaknesses of Penn State this year?

The obvious weakness for Penn State comes in the form of its biggest question mark, and that's at the quarterback position. Replacing Daryll Clark is no easy job, and reports from practice haven't been the most encouraging. Kevin Newsome should be the starter, though, and Penn State will maximize his skill-set with a very run-oriented offense. Evan Royster returns for his senior season at running back, and, barring injury, he'll become Penn State's leading rusher by midseason, and Stephfon Green adds depth as a very solid backup. The passing game has weapons too, with big-play Derek Moye and possession-receiver Graham Zug. The offensive line is very much a work in progress, but it's unlikely to be much worse than last year's unit, which was victimized by both Iowa and Ohio State.

Defensively, Penn State loses a lot in the front seven, most notably defensive tackle Jared Odrick, who was the defensive player of the year in the Big Ten last year, and all three starting linebackers, of which two--Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman--were real impact players. But I can't think of a time when the Nittany Lions didn't feature plenty of talent there, and with the way Penn State's recruited lately, that's not too great of a worry. Devon Still and Jack Crawford will be expected to step up at defensive end and tackle, respectively, and there's a host of talented linebackers contending for playing time. The defensive backfield returns three starters, and the pair of D'Anton Lynn and Stephon Morris at cornerback might be the best Penn State's had in a while.

The special teams is a major worry, as kicker Collin Wagner's leg only extends about 45 yards and isn't too accurate inside of that. This is a team that was among the worst both returning and covering kicks as well, and the loss of punter Jeremy Boone doesn't help in that regard either.

Penn State has an early game against defending National Champion Alabama. What do you hope to learn about Penn State in this game and what do you view as a successful outing?

I'm not as pessimistic as other observers, who see this game as a romp for Alabama. The Crimson Tide return just 2 starters from last year's defense, and now that the NCAA might be snooping around, the hits could keep on coming. I'd be disappointed if the Lions don't at least keep it close, though the quarterback play is obviously going to be the key. For a young quarterback to play a primetime game, on the road, in a hostile environment, against the #1 team in the country in just his 2nd career start is a recipe for disaster, but if the offense doesn't shoot itself in the foot, the game should be a competitive one. Penn State's defensive trademark is a "bend but don't break," and it's very difficult to run against the base 4-3 defense. Alabama's success offensively will come from stretching the field with Julio Jones to open up the medium range passing game, because the big play isn't typically available.

I know Penn State has the talent to hang with Alabama, I'm just not sure whether the pieces will come together soon enough.

What team on the schedule do you want to beat the most?

This is a toss-up between Ohio State and Iowa. Beating Alabama would be a real eye-opener, but it wouldn't really mean much if Penn State can't use that as a springboard to a successful conference schedule. Really, these three are the only games I'm worried about losing, and I expect this season to be a repeat of last year's 10-2 campaign. Penn State was markedly better than 10 teams and inferior to 2, and the results showed on the field. Now, Iowa's had our number for the past decade, really, and their wins over us the past 2 years were especially damaging, knocking us out of national title contention. Ohio State has become our chief rivals, though, and I think there's a level of hostility towards the Buckeyes--and especially Terrelle Pryor--that the fanbase just doesn't really have for Iowa. With that in mind, I think another win against Ohio State would both help to validate Penn State as a consistent contender--we'll have defeated them thrice in the past 6 years--and, hopefully, defeating an undefeated Buckeyes squad in Columbus would really get at their craw.

Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?

Cornerback D'Anton Lynn really stepped up last year, working his way into the starting lineup after barely seeing the field as a freshman, and he impressed. It' often said about defensive backs that you know they're doing their job if you don't hear their name called, and by that measure Lynn was among the conference's best. Though he's not overly flashy, or a ballhawk, Lynn led a Penn State secondary that was very rarely burned. If he keeps improving at this rate, Lynn has a chance to develop into the best corner Penn State's had in recent memory.

Who is the best player on the team?

Penn State's best player isn't playing a glamorous position. Offensive lineman Stefen Wisniewski is one of the best players at his position in the nation, and he's improved each year of his college career. In 2007, Wisniewski was a freshman All-Conference player, in 2008 he was a second team All-Conference, last year he was first team All-Big Ten, and it wouldn't shock me if he was an All-American after this season, just like his uncle, Steve, was 20 years ago. After playing center last year, Wiz has been moved back to his more natural guard, and will be very effective anchoring an untested offensive line. The other candidate would be running back Evan Royster, who's going to be asked to carry the ball much more than he's ever had to. If he rises to the challenge, Royster could become a darkhorse Heisman candidate.

What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?

That's an easy one--Kevin Newsome. Though I'm personally a supporter of freshman Paul Jones, who had a brilliant performance in Penn State's spring game, the quarterback job is going to be Newsome's job to lose. He came to Penn State with plenty of hype, as a top-10 quarterback prospect in the country, and we've known since he committed that this was going to be his team. He's more of a dual-threat QB, whose best asset is his legs, and Penn State will reorganize the offense to best suit his style. He's not going to be asked to make too many big plays on his own, and if he can be an effecitve "game manager," this team will have a chance to pull one of those upsets.

Who is the top newcomer that can make an impact this year?

Penn State doesn't have much of a track record of asking freshman to be impact players--back when JoePa started, freshmen weren't even allowed to play and he keeps that in mind even in 2010. Though Penn State featured a very strong recruiting class last year, it's not too high on players who are expected to step in from day one. The guy I'm very excited to see on the field, though, is running back Silas Redd. He was one of those five-star guys, an All-American, and though he'll be buried on the depth chart, Redd has earned rave reviews from everyone who's seen him. An early enrollee, Redd showed impressive quickness at the spring game, and has the potential to earn some carries.

Who is your pick to take the Big 10 this year (you can't pick Penn State) and are there any teams flying under the radar that might be able to make a run at the Big 10 championship?

I think it would be an absolute shocker if Ohio State doesn't win the Big Ten this year. They were the champions last year, and really did not lose much from that Rose Bowl team. If Terrelle Pryor is half the player he's hyped up to be, OSU will be one of the best teams in the country. I'm a little bit surprised at how unhyped Wisconsin has been, though. I'm not necessarily expecting them to head to Pasadena, but John Clay is the conference's best offensive player, and the defense is solid enough to win more often than not in a conference devoid of offensive explosiveness.

Who is the one player on an opposing team that strikes the most fear in your heart?

Adrian Clayborn. That man haunts my nightmares. Let me tell you a story about last year's Iowa game: that was Penn State's famed "white out," an 8 pm start, with the #8 Nittany Lions hosting an unranked Iowa squad in what was billed as Penn State's opportunity for sure vengeance. Hell, even ESPN brought the College Gameday bus to witness the carnage. But a steady, driving rain soaked the crowd and dampened our spirits, even after Penn State jumped out to an early 10-0 lead. At that point, though, the offense went into a shell, and Iowa fought their way back. Clayborn forced a safety, and, after an Iowa field goal, the lead was 10-5 entering the fourth quarter. That's when Clayborn crushed the dreams of at least the 109,316 fans in attendance. On a routine punt attempt, Clayborn burst through the line, blocked Boone's kick, scooped the ball up, and rumbled 50 yards for the go-ahead score. At that point, we all knew it was over. It's one of those moments where you just feel absolutely punched in the gut. I've never heard so many people get so quiet all at once.

Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?

My heart tells me Penn State will steal a win in either Tuscaloosa or Iowa City, but my head reminds me of the unsettled quarterback position, and that we'll be playing a much improved Michigan team, for one. In the end, this team will probably be a carbon copy of last year's 10-2 squad, one that beat 10 markedly inferior opponents and lost to 2 better ones. A 9-3 season wouldn't be a rousing success, but to expect anything more would be setting this team up for failure. That said, this season is supposed to set up a potential title run in 2011, and I'd be very relieved to see Kevin Newsome play up to his potential, even if this team drops one they should win.


Make sure to head over to the Nittany White Out to keep up with Penn State and follow the Big Ten this year. You can also follow them on twitter @nittanywhiteout.

Previous Big Ten Previews:
Illinois Fighting Illini 
Indiana Hoosiers 
Iowa Hawkeyes
Michigan Wolverines
Minnesota Golden Gophers 
Northwestern Wildcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Purdue Boilermakers

Next Up: Alabama Crimson Tide

Previous Pre-Season Previews
ACC- Boston College Eagles, Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins, North Carolina Tar Heels, North Carolina State Wolfpack Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Big 12- Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Texas Longhorns, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Syracuse Orange, UConn Huskies, USF Bulls, West Virginia Mountaineers
C-USA- Houston Cougars,  SMU Mustangs, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
Independent- Army Black Knights, Navy Midshipmen, Notre Dame Fighting Irish 
MAC- Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Central Michigan Chippewas, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets
MWC- BYU Cougars,  Colorado State Rams, UNLV Rebels, Utah Utes
Pac-10- Arizona State Sun Devils, California Golden Bears, Oregon Ducks, Oregon State Beavers, Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Washington Huskies, Washington State Cougars
SEC- Auburn Tigers, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky Wildcats, LSU Tigers, Mississippi Rebels, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
Sun Belt- FIU Golden Panthers, North Texas Mean Green, Troy Trojans
WAC- Boise State Broncos, Fresno State Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, New Mexico State Aggies