Every year college players have the chance to realize their dreams and cash in on a potentially lucrative career by taking their talents to the NFL. Let's take a look at some of the guys who passed up the possibility of declaring for the NFL draft in order to stay in school and possibly help lead their teams to Conference and National Championships.
1. Justin Blackmon and Brandon Wheedon, Oklahoma State- Okie State was picked by everybody to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South this year. But led by Brandon Wheedon, Justin Blackmon and Kendall Hunter they put up the 2nd most points in College Football and passed for the 3rd most yards. As a redshirt sophomore Justin Blackmon emerged as one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the land. In 12 games he caught 111 balls for 1782 yards and 20 TD. He finished 1st in the Nation in TD receptions, 1st in Receiving Yards per game, 2nd in Total Receiving Yards, 2nd in Receptions per Game and 3rd in Total Receptions. To say it was a break-out season would be a huge understatement. In 2009 Brandon Wheedon backed up Zac Robinson and only threw 24 passes all season. This year he got his opportunity and did not waste it. Wheedon put up 4277 yards passing (2nd to only Landry Jones in Big 12 land) and was the highest rated passer in the pass happy Big 12. I'm not sure about how valued Wheedon is by the NFL, especially since he's a 27 year old college QB, but getting both of these guys to come back to school (especially Blackmon) was a huge coo for Mike Gundy. Now the biggest question is how the Cowboys offense will function with Dana Holgerson moving on to West Virginia.
2. Andrew Luck, Stanford- This was the most surprising of all as Luck was thought by many to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. Luck would be my #1 with a bullet if Jim Harbaugh had come back to coach Stanford. Stanford did stay in house with their coaching choice to replace Harbaugh by picking Offensive Coordinator David Shaw. Keeping the offense in tact will be huge for Shaw and Luck. Luck was the third highest rated passer in the Nation (behind some guys named Cam Newton and Kellen Moore) and also led the Pac-10 in Passing Yards and TD. I think it's safe to say that Stanford is here to stay (at least for another year).
3. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma- Oklahoma went 12-2 this year and won the Big 12 Championship. Now they are poised for a run at the National Championship and Broyles coming back gives them the shot in the arm that they might just need to get them over the hump. Broyles led the Nation last year with 131 catches and helped Landry Jones become a much better QB in 2010. Broyles also led the Nation with 9.4 receptions per game, that's an incredible number and Big 12 defenses are going to have their hands full with Broyles and the Sooners offense next year.
4. Kellen Moore, Boise State- Ok, so maybe he's not widely coveted by the NFL. But we still see guys go pro that have no business doing so. Moore is only listed as 6'0" so maybe he's not the typical NFL QB but he sure is the cog that keeps Boise State going. This year the Broncos lose their top two receiving targets in Titus Young and Austin Pettis (both reeled in 71 catches last year) so keeping Moore is huge for maintaining the offense and breaking in some new targets. Moore's stats are as impressive as any other QB in College Football. Over the last two years he has passed for over 7000 yards and has 74 TD and only 9 Interceptions.
5. Case Keenum, Houston- This isn't the typical staying in school but Keenum was a 5th year senior who suffered a torn ACL and missed the last 9 games of last season. Without Keenum, Houston finished the season winning just 3 of their last 9 and concluded the season with a record of 5-7. With Keenum they went 10-4 in 2009. In the two years spanning 2008 and 2009 Keenum passed for over 10,000 yards and posted 44 TD in both of those seasons. If nothing else, Keenum provides us bloggers and sports writers some stats to drool over. Keenum was granted a 6th season by the NCAA and this guy is looking forward to watching it.
6. Jared Crick, Nebraska- There are some good defensive players who passed up the draft but this one might have the biggest impact. Last year Crick posted 70 total tackles (3rd on the team), 14.5 tackles for loss (5th in the Big 12) and 9.5 sacks (2nd in the Big 12). Nebraska was 9th in scoring defense last year in the Nation but their offense faltered and they fell to defeat in 3 of their last 4 games. With Crick coming back Nebraska doesn't need to worry about their DL as they prepare for their first game in their inaugural season in the Big 10.
Honorable Mention: Michael Floyd/Notre Dame, Mark Barron/Alabama, Janoris Jenkins/Florida, LaMichael James/Oregon, Russell Wilson/NC State
Showing posts with label Stanford Cardinal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stanford Cardinal. Show all posts
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Thursday, November 4, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: Nov. 4-6
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 31-17
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 4
GEORGIA TECH (5-3, 3-2) @ #22 VIRGINIA TECH (6-2, 4-0) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After their disastrous 0-2 start (that included a WTF loss to James Madison), Virginia Tech has righted the ship and rattled off six straight wins, including four straight double-digit wins in ACC play. Tech's been better on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense where they've been nigh-unstoppable of late, with four straight games of 40+ points. Georgia Tech's had an up and down season, losing handily to NC State and Clemson and suffering an inexplicable loss to a bad Kansas team, but pulling together five wins -- albeit none over anyone of note (aside from a suspension-ravaged North Carolina squad). Throw in the fact that it's a Thursday night home game for Virginia Tech (something they hardly ever lose) and it's hard to see Georgia Tech pulling off the upset here.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH 42, GEORGIA TECH 24
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 6
#21 BAYLOR (7-2, 4-1) @ #17 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-1, 3-1) (12pm EST, FSN)Baylor's been one of the most surprising and feel-good stories of the year in college football, not only getting bowl eligible (something they accomplished two weeks ago), but taking the lead in the Big 12 South division (which, at 4-1, they hold all to themselves). How long can this crazy ride last? Can the incredible talent of Robert Griffin III carry Baylor all the way to the Big 12 Championship Game? Maybe... but maybe not. For as amazing as Baylor's been so far, they've been able to do it by beating up on some poor teams (Sam Houston State, Buffalo, Rice, Kansas, Colorado) and some disappointing teams (Texas). What truly is the best win on their resume? Kansas State? Texas? The only elite team they've played (TCU) blasted them (45-10) and while Oklahoma State isn't that good, they appear to be getting better week by week (they logged an impressive 24-7 road win over Kansas State last week even without their best player, WR Justin Blackmon) -- and they're at home. Asking Baylor to go on the road again a week after scoring a big road win over Texas seems like a stretch. Blackmon should be back for this game, which means the Oklahoma State could be firing on all cylinders -- which is a scary thought.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE 38, BAYLOR 31
#3 TCU (9-0, 5-0) @ #5 UTAH (8-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS College Sports)Of course the biggest game of the week -- and the first (and possibly only) match-up of top five teams -- would be a match-up of MWC heavyweights and be on a random channel like CBS College Sports. It's just been that kind of season this year; chaos reigns and the mid-majors flourish. But there will be one fewer mid-major darling after this game, as well as one less team vying for a BCS bowl berth. The winner will also be the heavy favorite to win the Mountain West Conference, but that seems almost beside the point right now. A TCU win could give them enough credibility to stay ahead of Boise in the BCS rankings for the duration of the season -- which would guarantee them no worse than an at-large berth and possibly even enable to them to sneak into the BCS Championship Game. On the flipside, would a Utah win over TCU be enough to push them ahead of Boise -- and keep them there? Probably not, thanks to the middling nature of their schedule. It may not even get them into a BCS bowl (if the BCS bowls decline to take two mid-majors this year as they did last year), which would be quite a slap in the face. But a loss kills any hope Utah has of doing something big this season, so the stakes are certainly high for them too (they just need more help than TCU does).
So... what about the game itself? TCU has the 9th best scoring offense (40.8 ppg), but their real strength is their sick defense, which is allowing just 8.7 ppg -- best in the nation. Only three teams have reached double figures against them -- Oregon State (21), Baylor (10), and SMU (24!). They've gone over a month without allowing more than six points and they've given up only two touchdowns in that entire span; sure, they're doing it against MWC foes, but consistently holding anyone to that level of output is remarkable. Their defense is really damn good. Utah's no slouch, either, though; they have the 3rd best scoring offense (45.3 ppg) and the sixth best scoring defense (14.1 ppg). They've put up 50+ four different times this year. On the other hand, they've also struggled more than TCU; they needed OT to beat a pretty mediocre Pitt team and were in a dogfight with a good but not great Air Force team a week ago (they won, 28-23). TCU's closest margin of victory is their nine-point opening weekend triumph over Pitt; other than a weird Friday night road game against SMU, they've barely been tested the rest of the season. Does that close-game experience give Utah an advantage or does it mark them as vulnerable? Hard to say. Utah has a good team and homefield advantage, but TCU just looks like a juggernaut right now. They won't eviscerate Utah the way they've destroyed their recent foes, but it's still too hard to pick against them.
THE PICK: TCU 27, UTAH 13
#6 ALABAMA (7-1, 4-1) @ #10 LSU (7-1, 4-1) (3:30pm EST, CBS)LSU's national title hopes appear fairly slim after Les ran out of his Milacles against Auburn two weeks ago, but they still have a shot at a conference title (with a win here and an Alabama win over Auburn later in the year). For all their flaws on offense (and, oh, there are many), they still have a filthy defense (at least when they aren't facing Cam Newtown and, no offense to Alabama's excellent offensive skill position players, but there aren't any Cam Newtons on that squad), homefield advantage (although Death Valley isn't so menacing in mid-afternoon as it is in the evening) and two weeks of preparation time... it wouldn't be the biggest upset ever. Then again, Alabama's had two weeks to prepare as well, their defense has steadily improved all season (and they won't be hugely tested by LSU's anemic attack), and their mammoth offensive line and one-two punch at running back should be able to pound away at LSU's defense. No doubt Les will have some tricks up his sleeve, but here's guessing it won't be enough.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 24, LSU 14
#18 ARKANSAS (6-2, 3-2) @ #19 SOUTH CAROLINA (6-2, 4-2, 7pm EST, ESPN)This week's other SEC game of the week features the nominal SEC East favorite (the Gamecocks) and the forgotten man in the SEC West (the Hogs). Arkansas' title aspirations were dealt a crushing blow by their losses to Auburn and Alabama, but they're still good enough to be a threat -- and a spoiler to the ambitions of a team like South Carolina, who still finds themselves the favorite to win the SEC East, despite their own two losses. South Carolina's pass defense has been shaky at times and Arkansas still has the most potent passing attack in the SEC; South Carolina also runs the risk of looking ahead to their division-deciding game with Florida next week. All that said... South Carolina is a different team with a healthy Marcus Lattimore. They're playing well and it just feels like this is finally their year in the SEC East.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 31, ARKANSAS 28
#15 ARIZONA (7-1, 4-1) @ #13 STANFORD (7-1, 4-1, 8pm EST, ABC)Or, the battle to be Oregon's bridesmaid in the Pac-10. Stanford's at home and fresh off a thorough demolition of Washington a week ago (41-0). Arizona's going on the road and fresh off an uncomfortably close 29-21 over a middling UCLA team -- and they're still trying to sort out their QB issues (regular starter Nick Foles is expected to be recovered from a knee injury in time to play in this one, but he might also be rusty). That said, they do have probably the stiffest defense Stanford has faced all year and the most potent offense they've dealt with aside from Oregon -- they're unquestionably a good team. But just how good are they? That's unclear. Edge to Stanford since they're at home and seem to be dealing with fewer issues right now.
THE PICK: STANFORD 34, ARIZONA 30
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 31-17
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 4
GEORGIA TECH (5-3, 3-2) @ #22 VIRGINIA TECH (6-2, 4-0) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After their disastrous 0-2 start (that included a WTF loss to James Madison), Virginia Tech has righted the ship and rattled off six straight wins, including four straight double-digit wins in ACC play. Tech's been better on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense where they've been nigh-unstoppable of late, with four straight games of 40+ points. Georgia Tech's had an up and down season, losing handily to NC State and Clemson and suffering an inexplicable loss to a bad Kansas team, but pulling together five wins -- albeit none over anyone of note (aside from a suspension-ravaged North Carolina squad). Throw in the fact that it's a Thursday night home game for Virginia Tech (something they hardly ever lose) and it's hard to see Georgia Tech pulling off the upset here.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH 42, GEORGIA TECH 24
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 6
#21 BAYLOR (7-2, 4-1) @ #17 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-1, 3-1) (12pm EST, FSN)Baylor's been one of the most surprising and feel-good stories of the year in college football, not only getting bowl eligible (something they accomplished two weeks ago), but taking the lead in the Big 12 South division (which, at 4-1, they hold all to themselves). How long can this crazy ride last? Can the incredible talent of Robert Griffin III carry Baylor all the way to the Big 12 Championship Game? Maybe... but maybe not. For as amazing as Baylor's been so far, they've been able to do it by beating up on some poor teams (Sam Houston State, Buffalo, Rice, Kansas, Colorado) and some disappointing teams (Texas). What truly is the best win on their resume? Kansas State? Texas? The only elite team they've played (TCU) blasted them (45-10) and while Oklahoma State isn't that good, they appear to be getting better week by week (they logged an impressive 24-7 road win over Kansas State last week even without their best player, WR Justin Blackmon) -- and they're at home. Asking Baylor to go on the road again a week after scoring a big road win over Texas seems like a stretch. Blackmon should be back for this game, which means the Oklahoma State could be firing on all cylinders -- which is a scary thought.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE 38, BAYLOR 31
#3 TCU (9-0, 5-0) @ #5 UTAH (8-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS College Sports)Of course the biggest game of the week -- and the first (and possibly only) match-up of top five teams -- would be a match-up of MWC heavyweights and be on a random channel like CBS College Sports. It's just been that kind of season this year; chaos reigns and the mid-majors flourish. But there will be one fewer mid-major darling after this game, as well as one less team vying for a BCS bowl berth. The winner will also be the heavy favorite to win the Mountain West Conference, but that seems almost beside the point right now. A TCU win could give them enough credibility to stay ahead of Boise in the BCS rankings for the duration of the season -- which would guarantee them no worse than an at-large berth and possibly even enable to them to sneak into the BCS Championship Game. On the flipside, would a Utah win over TCU be enough to push them ahead of Boise -- and keep them there? Probably not, thanks to the middling nature of their schedule. It may not even get them into a BCS bowl (if the BCS bowls decline to take two mid-majors this year as they did last year), which would be quite a slap in the face. But a loss kills any hope Utah has of doing something big this season, so the stakes are certainly high for them too (they just need more help than TCU does).
So... what about the game itself? TCU has the 9th best scoring offense (40.8 ppg), but their real strength is their sick defense, which is allowing just 8.7 ppg -- best in the nation. Only three teams have reached double figures against them -- Oregon State (21), Baylor (10), and SMU (24!). They've gone over a month without allowing more than six points and they've given up only two touchdowns in that entire span; sure, they're doing it against MWC foes, but consistently holding anyone to that level of output is remarkable. Their defense is really damn good. Utah's no slouch, either, though; they have the 3rd best scoring offense (45.3 ppg) and the sixth best scoring defense (14.1 ppg). They've put up 50+ four different times this year. On the other hand, they've also struggled more than TCU; they needed OT to beat a pretty mediocre Pitt team and were in a dogfight with a good but not great Air Force team a week ago (they won, 28-23). TCU's closest margin of victory is their nine-point opening weekend triumph over Pitt; other than a weird Friday night road game against SMU, they've barely been tested the rest of the season. Does that close-game experience give Utah an advantage or does it mark them as vulnerable? Hard to say. Utah has a good team and homefield advantage, but TCU just looks like a juggernaut right now. They won't eviscerate Utah the way they've destroyed their recent foes, but it's still too hard to pick against them.
THE PICK: TCU 27, UTAH 13
#6 ALABAMA (7-1, 4-1) @ #10 LSU (7-1, 4-1) (3:30pm EST, CBS)LSU's national title hopes appear fairly slim after Les ran out of his Milacles against Auburn two weeks ago, but they still have a shot at a conference title (with a win here and an Alabama win over Auburn later in the year). For all their flaws on offense (and, oh, there are many), they still have a filthy defense (at least when they aren't facing Cam Newtown and, no offense to Alabama's excellent offensive skill position players, but there aren't any Cam Newtons on that squad), homefield advantage (although Death Valley isn't so menacing in mid-afternoon as it is in the evening) and two weeks of preparation time... it wouldn't be the biggest upset ever. Then again, Alabama's had two weeks to prepare as well, their defense has steadily improved all season (and they won't be hugely tested by LSU's anemic attack), and their mammoth offensive line and one-two punch at running back should be able to pound away at LSU's defense. No doubt Les will have some tricks up his sleeve, but here's guessing it won't be enough.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 24, LSU 14
#18 ARKANSAS (6-2, 3-2) @ #19 SOUTH CAROLINA (6-2, 4-2, 7pm EST, ESPN)This week's other SEC game of the week features the nominal SEC East favorite (the Gamecocks) and the forgotten man in the SEC West (the Hogs). Arkansas' title aspirations were dealt a crushing blow by their losses to Auburn and Alabama, but they're still good enough to be a threat -- and a spoiler to the ambitions of a team like South Carolina, who still finds themselves the favorite to win the SEC East, despite their own two losses. South Carolina's pass defense has been shaky at times and Arkansas still has the most potent passing attack in the SEC; South Carolina also runs the risk of looking ahead to their division-deciding game with Florida next week. All that said... South Carolina is a different team with a healthy Marcus Lattimore. They're playing well and it just feels like this is finally their year in the SEC East.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 31, ARKANSAS 28
#15 ARIZONA (7-1, 4-1) @ #13 STANFORD (7-1, 4-1, 8pm EST, ABC)Or, the battle to be Oregon's bridesmaid in the Pac-10. Stanford's at home and fresh off a thorough demolition of Washington a week ago (41-0). Arizona's going on the road and fresh off an uncomfortably close 29-21 over a middling UCLA team -- and they're still trying to sort out their QB issues (regular starter Nick Foles is expected to be recovered from a knee injury in time to play in this one, but he might also be rusty). That said, they do have probably the stiffest defense Stanford has faced all year and the most potent offense they've dealt with aside from Oregon -- they're unquestionably a good team. But just how good are they? That's unclear. Edge to Stanford since they're at home and seem to be dealing with fewer issues right now.
THE PICK: STANFORD 34, ARIZONA 30
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 7-9
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL 20-10
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2010
#7 Nebraska (4-0, 0-0) @ Kansas State (4-0, 1-0) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Two straight Big 12 games on Thursday night? Poor Big East; it’s not bad enough that their league is dreadful this year and can barely beat anyone outside of FCS schools – now they’re even being edged out of their traditional Thursday night showcase game. Last week’s Thursday night Big 12 game between Oklahoma State and Texas A&M turned into a wild shootout; don’t expect aerial pyrotechnics like that this week. Kansas State and Nebraska both want to grind things out on the ground. K-State features one of the nation’s best backs in Daniel Thomas, going for 157 ypg, while Nebraska counters with a hydra-like attack featuring Roy Helu (76 ypg), Rex Burkhead (76ypg), and red-hot freshman QB Taylor “T-Magic” Martinez (116ypg). There are reasons to like Kansas State – they’ve had an extra week to prepare for the Huskers, they’re at home, Nebraska struggled with South Dakota State in their last game – but probably not enough to actually pick them to win this game against a top ten-ranked Nebraska team with a salty defense. This game should go a long way in determining who wins the Big 12 North.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 24, KANSAS STATE 14
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2010
#1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0) @ #19 South Carolina (3-1, 1-1) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
Another week, another big Alabama game. Ho-hum. After needing some late-game heroics (and a Ryan Mallett meltdown) to sneak out a road win over Arkansas, Bama rebounded to throttle Florida at home last week. Now they face the third leg of their three-week gauntlet against top 20 teams, a road game against a South Carolina team that’s had two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide. The question is: will that matter? The good news for USCeast is that they’ll have a few things in their favor that Florida didn’t – a much more consistent and coherent offensive identity, homefield advantage, two weeks of preparation, and a Bama team that may be a bit beaten down from their exertions over the past two weeks. The bad news is that Bama’s also been getting better, game by game, especially on defense. The Tide’s biggest weakness is/was their pass defense, which Mallett shredded (until the end, at least), but USCeast is ill-suited to exploit that advantage with the inconsistent Stephen Garcia flinging the ball. Alabama’s reaching “pick against them at your peril” status right now, much like USC in 2003-2005 or Miami in 2000-2002. I’m not going to buck that trend this week. On the other hand, given Florida’s obvious issues this season, this game may be a prelude to a USCeast-Bama rematch in the SEC title game. Of course, my pick in that game will probably be the same as my pick in this game…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 27, SOUTH CAROLINA 20
#17 Michigan State (5-0, 1-0) @ #18 Michigan (5-0, 1-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)
This year's Battle of Michigan could be the best installment in a while -- and that's saying something when six of the past seven encounters have been decided by a touchdown or less. But both teams enter this game on a high, as undefeated 5-0 squads with potent offenses. Michigan has, of course, been The Denard Robinson Show all season -- but lordy, lordy what a freaking show it's been. Robinson's been an absolute magician to watch thus far, slicing through defenses on the ground (and through the air) and producing a bushel of jaw-dropping highlight reel plays every week. On the other hand, Michigan hasn't exactly been playing a murderer's row of defenses thus far -- and while Michigan State has some issues on defense (particularly in the secondary), they do have some legit all-conference talent in their ranks and the going should be a bit tougher against the likes of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon. Not to mention that Michigan State has some of the most savage big-hitters in the league on defense; Denard Robinson has already proven to be a bit fragile (he's missed at least a few plays in every game this season), so Michigan could be in serious trouble if Sparty is able to bludgeon him a few times and put him out of commission. On the offensive side of the ball, Sparty has been one of the most balanced teams in the nation, with an explosive pair of running backs in Edwin Baker (75-536-5), and Le'Veon Bell (64-471-7) and (in the last two weeks) a resurgent passing offense under Kirk Cousins (81/120, 1132 yards, 9/4 TD/INT). MSU's best defense against The Fightin' Denards may be to simply deny him the ball and with an offense like that (and against a defense as porous as Michigan's), they may be able to do just that. It's hard to bet against Robinson pulling yet another phenomenal spectacle out of his bag of tricks, but Sparty really does seem well-suited to pull the curtains on The Denard Show for a week.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, MICHIGAN 31
#12 LSU (5-0, 3-0) @ #14 Florida (4-1, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
This game should be a fascinating one to watch, especially if you like watching bad football. Between Les Miles’ chronic clock management blunders, the continuing incompetence of the LSU offense, and Florida’s own incompetence on offense, this one should be an uglyball masterpiece. If you like dropped passes, turnovers, and tackles for loss, make this your game of the weekend because it’s probably going to set offensive football back a few decades. Florida has the benefit of homefield, but LSU may have the better defense (they certainly have the best defensive player on the field in CB Patrick Peterson, a complete stud). You wouldn’t think that Les Miles’ perverse luck could continue, but sometimes you just have to ride a crazy hand and see where it takes you. Florida has provided little reason to have faith in them, either.
THE PICK: LSU 13, FLORIDA 9
#23 Florida State (4-1, 2-0) @ #13 Miami (3-1, 1-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
The ACC’s marquee rivalry is renewed once again, this time with both teams ranked, something of a rarity in the recent days of this rivalry. Both teams have highly touted quarterbacks in Christian Ponder (FSU) and Jacory Harris (Miami), but neither guy has been too spectacular thus far this season (Ponder: 78/129, 844 yards, 8/3 TD/INT; Harris: 68/119, 895 yards, 10/8 TD/INT). Both teams also suffered humbling road defeats in big-time non-conference showdowns (FSU got thrashed by Oklahoma, while Miami was beaten down by Ohio State). Miami made a big statement by going on the road and annihilating Pitt on Thursday night a few weeks ago, while Florida State has quietly been beating up on the usual ACC dregs (Wake Forest, Virginia) the past few weeks. These look like two evenly-matched squads on the offensive side of the ball -- but Miami appears to have a significant advantage on defense. That would be reason enough to pick them -- if not for the fact that Harris is an enormous wildcard in this matchup. Harris has thrown eight interceptions already this season, the fifth-worst total in the nation -- and it's even worse when you consider that the guys who have thrown as many or more interceptions have also thrown 50-85 more passes than Harris. He's throwing an interception every 15 passes -- which is not good. If he does that against FSU, Miami may suffer. If he can protect the ball, their defense should be able to slow down Florida State enough for Miami to prevail. Against my better judgment, I'll bet on that to happen.
THE PICK: MIAMI 24, FLORIDA STATE 20
USC (4-1, 1-1) @ #16 Stanford (4-1, 1-1) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
A year ago, Stanford's destruction of USC ranked as one of the most shocking results of the season (well, at least until we found out that USC was no longer the USC of old). Now, it's practically expected -- oh, how things can change dramatically in the span of a year. Despite opening the year 4-0 USC looked just as shaky as they were a year ago -- and their upset loss to Washington last week did nothing to alter those concerns. After cruising through the early part of the year, Stanford opened up an early lead on Oregon a week ago... and then watched the bottom drop out as the quick-strike Oregon offense exploded. But Oregon is going to do that to a ton of teams this year and USC is better matchup for Stanford than Oregon, frankly. USC still has some better talent at a few positions (WR, RB, maybe DL), but Stanford has the advantage at QB -- and is there anyone who wouldn't trust Harbaugh to coach circles around Kiffin at this point?
THE PICK: STANFORD 35, USC 27
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL 20-10
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2010
#7 Nebraska (4-0, 0-0) @ Kansas State (4-0, 1-0) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Two straight Big 12 games on Thursday night? Poor Big East; it’s not bad enough that their league is dreadful this year and can barely beat anyone outside of FCS schools – now they’re even being edged out of their traditional Thursday night showcase game. Last week’s Thursday night Big 12 game between Oklahoma State and Texas A&M turned into a wild shootout; don’t expect aerial pyrotechnics like that this week. Kansas State and Nebraska both want to grind things out on the ground. K-State features one of the nation’s best backs in Daniel Thomas, going for 157 ypg, while Nebraska counters with a hydra-like attack featuring Roy Helu (76 ypg), Rex Burkhead (76ypg), and red-hot freshman QB Taylor “T-Magic” Martinez (116ypg). There are reasons to like Kansas State – they’ve had an extra week to prepare for the Huskers, they’re at home, Nebraska struggled with South Dakota State in their last game – but probably not enough to actually pick them to win this game against a top ten-ranked Nebraska team with a salty defense. This game should go a long way in determining who wins the Big 12 North.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 24, KANSAS STATE 14
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2010
#1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0) @ #19 South Carolina (3-1, 1-1) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
Another week, another big Alabama game. Ho-hum. After needing some late-game heroics (and a Ryan Mallett meltdown) to sneak out a road win over Arkansas, Bama rebounded to throttle Florida at home last week. Now they face the third leg of their three-week gauntlet against top 20 teams, a road game against a South Carolina team that’s had two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide. The question is: will that matter? The good news for USCeast is that they’ll have a few things in their favor that Florida didn’t – a much more consistent and coherent offensive identity, homefield advantage, two weeks of preparation, and a Bama team that may be a bit beaten down from their exertions over the past two weeks. The bad news is that Bama’s also been getting better, game by game, especially on defense. The Tide’s biggest weakness is/was their pass defense, which Mallett shredded (until the end, at least), but USCeast is ill-suited to exploit that advantage with the inconsistent Stephen Garcia flinging the ball. Alabama’s reaching “pick against them at your peril” status right now, much like USC in 2003-2005 or Miami in 2000-2002. I’m not going to buck that trend this week. On the other hand, given Florida’s obvious issues this season, this game may be a prelude to a USCeast-Bama rematch in the SEC title game. Of course, my pick in that game will probably be the same as my pick in this game…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 27, SOUTH CAROLINA 20
#17 Michigan State (5-0, 1-0) @ #18 Michigan (5-0, 1-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)
This year's Battle of Michigan could be the best installment in a while -- and that's saying something when six of the past seven encounters have been decided by a touchdown or less. But both teams enter this game on a high, as undefeated 5-0 squads with potent offenses. Michigan has, of course, been The Denard Robinson Show all season -- but lordy, lordy what a freaking show it's been. Robinson's been an absolute magician to watch thus far, slicing through defenses on the ground (and through the air) and producing a bushel of jaw-dropping highlight reel plays every week. On the other hand, Michigan hasn't exactly been playing a murderer's row of defenses thus far -- and while Michigan State has some issues on defense (particularly in the secondary), they do have some legit all-conference talent in their ranks and the going should be a bit tougher against the likes of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon. Not to mention that Michigan State has some of the most savage big-hitters in the league on defense; Denard Robinson has already proven to be a bit fragile (he's missed at least a few plays in every game this season), so Michigan could be in serious trouble if Sparty is able to bludgeon him a few times and put him out of commission. On the offensive side of the ball, Sparty has been one of the most balanced teams in the nation, with an explosive pair of running backs in Edwin Baker (75-536-5), and Le'Veon Bell (64-471-7) and (in the last two weeks) a resurgent passing offense under Kirk Cousins (81/120, 1132 yards, 9/4 TD/INT). MSU's best defense against The Fightin' Denards may be to simply deny him the ball and with an offense like that (and against a defense as porous as Michigan's), they may be able to do just that. It's hard to bet against Robinson pulling yet another phenomenal spectacle out of his bag of tricks, but Sparty really does seem well-suited to pull the curtains on The Denard Show for a week.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, MICHIGAN 31
#12 LSU (5-0, 3-0) @ #14 Florida (4-1, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
This game should be a fascinating one to watch, especially if you like watching bad football. Between Les Miles’ chronic clock management blunders, the continuing incompetence of the LSU offense, and Florida’s own incompetence on offense, this one should be an uglyball masterpiece. If you like dropped passes, turnovers, and tackles for loss, make this your game of the weekend because it’s probably going to set offensive football back a few decades. Florida has the benefit of homefield, but LSU may have the better defense (they certainly have the best defensive player on the field in CB Patrick Peterson, a complete stud). You wouldn’t think that Les Miles’ perverse luck could continue, but sometimes you just have to ride a crazy hand and see where it takes you. Florida has provided little reason to have faith in them, either.
THE PICK: LSU 13, FLORIDA 9
#23 Florida State (4-1, 2-0) @ #13 Miami (3-1, 1-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
The ACC’s marquee rivalry is renewed once again, this time with both teams ranked, something of a rarity in the recent days of this rivalry. Both teams have highly touted quarterbacks in Christian Ponder (FSU) and Jacory Harris (Miami), but neither guy has been too spectacular thus far this season (Ponder: 78/129, 844 yards, 8/3 TD/INT; Harris: 68/119, 895 yards, 10/8 TD/INT). Both teams also suffered humbling road defeats in big-time non-conference showdowns (FSU got thrashed by Oklahoma, while Miami was beaten down by Ohio State). Miami made a big statement by going on the road and annihilating Pitt on Thursday night a few weeks ago, while Florida State has quietly been beating up on the usual ACC dregs (Wake Forest, Virginia) the past few weeks. These look like two evenly-matched squads on the offensive side of the ball -- but Miami appears to have a significant advantage on defense. That would be reason enough to pick them -- if not for the fact that Harris is an enormous wildcard in this matchup. Harris has thrown eight interceptions already this season, the fifth-worst total in the nation -- and it's even worse when you consider that the guys who have thrown as many or more interceptions have also thrown 50-85 more passes than Harris. He's throwing an interception every 15 passes -- which is not good. If he does that against FSU, Miami may suffer. If he can protect the ball, their defense should be able to slow down Florida State enough for Miami to prevail. Against my better judgment, I'll bet on that to happen.
THE PICK: MIAMI 24, FLORIDA STATE 20
USC (4-1, 1-1) @ #16 Stanford (4-1, 1-1) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
A year ago, Stanford's destruction of USC ranked as one of the most shocking results of the season (well, at least until we found out that USC was no longer the USC of old). Now, it's practically expected -- oh, how things can change dramatically in the span of a year. Despite opening the year 4-0 USC looked just as shaky as they were a year ago -- and their upset loss to Washington last week did nothing to alter those concerns. After cruising through the early part of the year, Stanford opened up an early lead on Oregon a week ago... and then watched the bottom drop out as the quick-strike Oregon offense exploded. But Oregon is going to do that to a ton of teams this year and USC is better matchup for Stanford than Oregon, frankly. USC still has some better talent at a few positions (WR, RB, maybe DL), but Stanford has the advantage at QB -- and is there anyone who wouldn't trust Harbaugh to coach circles around Kiffin at this point?
THE PICK: STANFORD 35, USC 27
Friday, October 1, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 2
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 16-8
#21 Texas (3-1) vs. #8 Oklahoma (4-0) (@ Dallas, TX) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
For the second-straight year, one of these teams enters the game with a loss; a year ago it was an injury-ravaged Oklahoma team limping into Dallas with injuries to Jermaine Gresham, Sam Bradford (who returned for that game only to get reinjured), and a host of other players, as well as a pair of losses to BYU and Miami. This year, Texas can't point to any injuries as the source of their malaise, but after stumbling through less-than-impressive wins over the likes of Rice and Wyoming, the Longhorns finally spit the bit in a home meltdown to UCLA a week ago. Frailties both old (their disjointed offense and non-existent running game) and new (a surprisingly porous run defense) were exposed by the Bruins -- and the Sooners will no doubt have been taking notes. Then again, they haven't exactly been running a train on their opposition thus far, either, they're 4-0 but that's included some skin-of-their-teeth wins over Air Force, Cincinnati, and (somehow) Utah State... as well as an incongruous massacre of Florida State sandwiched in-between those games. This game figures to pit strength against strength (Oklahoma's oft-explosive offense against Texas' typically immovable defense) and weakness against weakness (Oklahoma's porous defense against Texas' terminally inconsistent offense). One of those battles will likely cancel out, so the team that can win the other battle (whichever it happens to be) should come out on top. Texas' problems thus far have seemed more troubling, so let's ride the Sooners here.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 27, TEXAS 20
#11 Wisconsin (4-0) at #24 Michigan State (4-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
Both teams are 4-0, but they haven't really been tested that much -- they beat up on some MAC/WAC/Sun Belt-level opposition (and beat the holy piss out of some I-AA squads last week) and scraped by their one "real" opponent by the skin of their teeth (Wisco needed a blocked XP to beat Arizona State, while Michigan State needed that awesome fake field goal to beat Notre Dame in OT). It's also unclear how good or bad their "real" opponents are -- Arizona State's only two losses are to two top 10-ish teams (Wisco and Oregon) and they could have won both if Steven Threet could have stopped being Steven Threet for a few plays, while Notre Dame's three losses are to teams that are a combined 12-0. Wisco got a lot more preseason love than Sparty, but they looked sluggish until they opened up a can of whup-ass on Austin Peay. Michigan State has developed a really balanced offense and has some very good defensive players (like LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, to name a few guys)... although their secondary can be shredded (just ask Dayne Crist and the Domers). I think Sparty has a really good shot to pull off the upset here, as long as they're not looking ahead to next week's big showdown with Michigan.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, WISCONSIN 31
Virginia Tech (2-2) at #23 North Carolina State (4-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)
Raise your hand if you had NC State pegged to be atop the ACC. Lower your hand if you're an alum or a relative of one of the players. If your hand is still raised, you're a goddamn liar. But it's the ACC so the only reasonable expectation is for the unexpected to reign. This is a league where Wake Forest was champion as recently as four years ago; there is no brand of madness too mad for them (except maybe Duke going undefeated and playing for the crystal football -- that's just stupid talk) In any event, now that Virginia Tech has escaped the cruel clutches of foes from the WAC and CAA, they're rounding into their usual form for ACC season: a punishing defense (they shut out Boston College 19-0 a week ago) married to a "just enough to get by" offense (again, just 19 points a week ago). NC State survived a road trip to UCF (28-21), then zipped by supposed tests against Cincinnati (30-19) and Georgia Tech (45-28). As always, a belief in ACChaos is our guiding light here; the question is which team is more chaos-friendly? VT is the traditional bet in the ACC, so let's throw our chips in against 'em. Just because. ACChaos means we'll likely be proven wrong (again).
THE PICK: NC STATE 27, VIRGINIA TECH 20
#22 Penn State (3-1) at #17 Iowa (3-1) (8:05pm EST, ESPN)
I'm not going to lie and pretend I'm not a bit biased about this one... but it has been a really good game more often than not. Going back to 2000, the game's only been decided by more than a touchdown three times (2003, 2007, and last year, although that was a closer game than the 21-10 score indicated) and four games have been decided in the final minutes or OT. Sometimes it's an ugly, defensive slog (2004 and the infamous 6-4 game or last year's rain-soaked showdown), but they're usually exciting, intense games. It's turning into a pretty healthy rivalry and I'm a little sad that the Big Ten's new divisional format will probably lead to the game being played less often than it is now. As far as this game, it's the reversed situation from the last few years, when Penn State went into the game as the favorite with big dreams; Iowa's favored in this one. Most of the match-ups favor them (especially their defensive line versus PSU's offensive line), but that doesn't always mean a lot in this series. I understand if most people aren't watching this one -- it is on the same time as Florida-Bama and Oregon-Stanford after all -- but it should be worth flipping to during commercial breaks or at timeouts. Penn State has some solid players on both sides of the ball, but for the most part they're in rebuilding mode this season, while this is a season Iowa has been building to for a few years. Barring another special teams meltdown, Iowa should win this one.
THE PICK: IOWA 27, PENN STATE 13
#9 Stanford (4-0) at #4 Oregon (4-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
What do we expect out of this one? Points, points, and, oh yeah, more points. A year ago, Stanford won this game 51-42 and there isn't a whole lot of reason to expect differently from this game: Oregon's offense and its ridiculous almost point-a-minute scoring rate barely seems to have skipped a beat without Jeremiah Masoli at the helm and Stanford's offense has been bulldozing opponents even without the Albino Rhino (Toby Gerhart) keying the attack. NFL #1 draft pick-to-be Andrew Luck is leading the way for a balanced offense and the overlooked defense is looking pretty solid, too: they shut out the UCLA team that went into Austin and picked up 34 points and a win last week and they made mincemeat out of Notre Dame, too.
This game is also intriguing for the contrast in styles; Stanford just wants to line up and smash you in the mouth over and over again, while Oregon wants to use speed and misdirection to slice you to ribbons. Neither team has faced an offense as potent as the one they'll be facing on Saturday night. It's tough to distinguish between these two evenly-matched teams, but Stanford seems to have done better against slightly stronger competition (that UCLA win gets better and better) and Oregon did have trouble stopping what was suppsoed to be a mediocre Arizona State offense a week ago (at least until Steven Threet gifted them with turnover after turnover to end promising drives). The atmosphere in Autzen will be insane, but for now give us the team that likes to punch and get punched.
THE PICK: STANFORD 38, OREGON 34
#7 Florida (4-0) at #1 Alabama (4-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS)
One of these teams has (mostly) looked like a juggernaut, rolling through overmatched opponents and pummeling sad sack opponents. The other... has not. Alabama cruised through their early games, then faced their stiffest test yet in a road game at Arkansas, where they fell behind 17-7 at halftime and 20-7 late in the third quarter, before their brutally tough running game and an opportunistic defense (aided and abetted by Ryan Mallett's awful implosion) took over in the fourth quarter. On one hand, their failings in that game could be construed as a sign of weakness; on the other, their ability to battle back is impressive... and they aren't going to face many quarterbacks or passing offenses good enough to exploit the weaknesses in their secondary. The question this week is: can Florida do it? Their moribund offense woke up last week behind the Tebow-esque rhinoceros runs of Trey Burton, but doing that against Kentucky is one thing; doing that against Alabama's defense is another matter entirely.
Additionally, there's been a lot of hype for this game as the third part of the epic Bama-Florida trilogy that began with the last two SEC Championship Games, which seems a bit unfair. There was a great deal of similarity between the Florida and Alabama squads that tangled in those title games, but this year's been a ton of turnover on both sides for this game, with Alabama losing basically their entire starting defense and Florida losing huge swaths of players on both sides of the ball (including some guy named Tim). What happened in those two SEC title games probably isn't going to mean a whole lot for this particular game. As for this game... I don't really believe the Florida offense has truly turned a corner just because they lit up Kentucky and while the Florida defense will make some big plays and keep the game close for a while, I don't think they can withstand the punishment for an entire game.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 24, FLORIDA 14
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 16-8
#21 Texas (3-1) vs. #8 Oklahoma (4-0) (@ Dallas, TX) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
For the second-straight year, one of these teams enters the game with a loss; a year ago it was an injury-ravaged Oklahoma team limping into Dallas with injuries to Jermaine Gresham, Sam Bradford (who returned for that game only to get reinjured), and a host of other players, as well as a pair of losses to BYU and Miami. This year, Texas can't point to any injuries as the source of their malaise, but after stumbling through less-than-impressive wins over the likes of Rice and Wyoming, the Longhorns finally spit the bit in a home meltdown to UCLA a week ago. Frailties both old (their disjointed offense and non-existent running game) and new (a surprisingly porous run defense) were exposed by the Bruins -- and the Sooners will no doubt have been taking notes. Then again, they haven't exactly been running a train on their opposition thus far, either, they're 4-0 but that's included some skin-of-their-teeth wins over Air Force, Cincinnati, and (somehow) Utah State... as well as an incongruous massacre of Florida State sandwiched in-between those games. This game figures to pit strength against strength (Oklahoma's oft-explosive offense against Texas' typically immovable defense) and weakness against weakness (Oklahoma's porous defense against Texas' terminally inconsistent offense). One of those battles will likely cancel out, so the team that can win the other battle (whichever it happens to be) should come out on top. Texas' problems thus far have seemed more troubling, so let's ride the Sooners here.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 27, TEXAS 20
#11 Wisconsin (4-0) at #24 Michigan State (4-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
Both teams are 4-0, but they haven't really been tested that much -- they beat up on some MAC/WAC/Sun Belt-level opposition (and beat the holy piss out of some I-AA squads last week) and scraped by their one "real" opponent by the skin of their teeth (Wisco needed a blocked XP to beat Arizona State, while Michigan State needed that awesome fake field goal to beat Notre Dame in OT). It's also unclear how good or bad their "real" opponents are -- Arizona State's only two losses are to two top 10-ish teams (Wisco and Oregon) and they could have won both if Steven Threet could have stopped being Steven Threet for a few plays, while Notre Dame's three losses are to teams that are a combined 12-0. Wisco got a lot more preseason love than Sparty, but they looked sluggish until they opened up a can of whup-ass on Austin Peay. Michigan State has developed a really balanced offense and has some very good defensive players (like LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, to name a few guys)... although their secondary can be shredded (just ask Dayne Crist and the Domers). I think Sparty has a really good shot to pull off the upset here, as long as they're not looking ahead to next week's big showdown with Michigan.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, WISCONSIN 31
Virginia Tech (2-2) at #23 North Carolina State (4-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)
Raise your hand if you had NC State pegged to be atop the ACC. Lower your hand if you're an alum or a relative of one of the players. If your hand is still raised, you're a goddamn liar. But it's the ACC so the only reasonable expectation is for the unexpected to reign. This is a league where Wake Forest was champion as recently as four years ago; there is no brand of madness too mad for them (except maybe Duke going undefeated and playing for the crystal football -- that's just stupid talk) In any event, now that Virginia Tech has escaped the cruel clutches of foes from the WAC and CAA, they're rounding into their usual form for ACC season: a punishing defense (they shut out Boston College 19-0 a week ago) married to a "just enough to get by" offense (again, just 19 points a week ago). NC State survived a road trip to UCF (28-21), then zipped by supposed tests against Cincinnati (30-19) and Georgia Tech (45-28). As always, a belief in ACChaos is our guiding light here; the question is which team is more chaos-friendly? VT is the traditional bet in the ACC, so let's throw our chips in against 'em. Just because. ACChaos means we'll likely be proven wrong (again).
THE PICK: NC STATE 27, VIRGINIA TECH 20
#22 Penn State (3-1) at #17 Iowa (3-1) (8:05pm EST, ESPN)
I'm not going to lie and pretend I'm not a bit biased about this one... but it has been a really good game more often than not. Going back to 2000, the game's only been decided by more than a touchdown three times (2003, 2007, and last year, although that was a closer game than the 21-10 score indicated) and four games have been decided in the final minutes or OT. Sometimes it's an ugly, defensive slog (2004 and the infamous 6-4 game or last year's rain-soaked showdown), but they're usually exciting, intense games. It's turning into a pretty healthy rivalry and I'm a little sad that the Big Ten's new divisional format will probably lead to the game being played less often than it is now. As far as this game, it's the reversed situation from the last few years, when Penn State went into the game as the favorite with big dreams; Iowa's favored in this one. Most of the match-ups favor them (especially their defensive line versus PSU's offensive line), but that doesn't always mean a lot in this series. I understand if most people aren't watching this one -- it is on the same time as Florida-Bama and Oregon-Stanford after all -- but it should be worth flipping to during commercial breaks or at timeouts. Penn State has some solid players on both sides of the ball, but for the most part they're in rebuilding mode this season, while this is a season Iowa has been building to for a few years. Barring another special teams meltdown, Iowa should win this one.
THE PICK: IOWA 27, PENN STATE 13
#9 Stanford (4-0) at #4 Oregon (4-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
What do we expect out of this one? Points, points, and, oh yeah, more points. A year ago, Stanford won this game 51-42 and there isn't a whole lot of reason to expect differently from this game: Oregon's offense and its ridiculous almost point-a-minute scoring rate barely seems to have skipped a beat without Jeremiah Masoli at the helm and Stanford's offense has been bulldozing opponents even without the Albino Rhino (Toby Gerhart) keying the attack. NFL #1 draft pick-to-be Andrew Luck is leading the way for a balanced offense and the overlooked defense is looking pretty solid, too: they shut out the UCLA team that went into Austin and picked up 34 points and a win last week and they made mincemeat out of Notre Dame, too.
This game is also intriguing for the contrast in styles; Stanford just wants to line up and smash you in the mouth over and over again, while Oregon wants to use speed and misdirection to slice you to ribbons. Neither team has faced an offense as potent as the one they'll be facing on Saturday night. It's tough to distinguish between these two evenly-matched teams, but Stanford seems to have done better against slightly stronger competition (that UCLA win gets better and better) and Oregon did have trouble stopping what was suppsoed to be a mediocre Arizona State offense a week ago (at least until Steven Threet gifted them with turnover after turnover to end promising drives). The atmosphere in Autzen will be insane, but for now give us the team that likes to punch and get punched.
THE PICK: STANFORD 38, OREGON 34
#7 Florida (4-0) at #1 Alabama (4-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS)
One of these teams has (mostly) looked like a juggernaut, rolling through overmatched opponents and pummeling sad sack opponents. The other... has not. Alabama cruised through their early games, then faced their stiffest test yet in a road game at Arkansas, where they fell behind 17-7 at halftime and 20-7 late in the third quarter, before their brutally tough running game and an opportunistic defense (aided and abetted by Ryan Mallett's awful implosion) took over in the fourth quarter. On one hand, their failings in that game could be construed as a sign of weakness; on the other, their ability to battle back is impressive... and they aren't going to face many quarterbacks or passing offenses good enough to exploit the weaknesses in their secondary. The question this week is: can Florida do it? Their moribund offense woke up last week behind the Tebow-esque rhinoceros runs of Trey Burton, but doing that against Kentucky is one thing; doing that against Alabama's defense is another matter entirely.
Additionally, there's been a lot of hype for this game as the third part of the epic Bama-Florida trilogy that began with the last two SEC Championship Games, which seems a bit unfair. There was a great deal of similarity between the Florida and Alabama squads that tangled in those title games, but this year's been a ton of turnover on both sides for this game, with Alabama losing basically their entire starting defense and Florida losing huge swaths of players on both sides of the ball (including some guy named Tim). What happened in those two SEC title games probably isn't going to mean a whole lot for this particular game. As for this game... I don't really believe the Florida offense has truly turned a corner just because they lit up Kentucky and while the Florida defense will make some big plays and keep the game close for a while, I don't think they can withstand the punishment for an entire game.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 24, FLORIDA 14
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Pac-10 Preview
2009 Standings
Oregon 10-3 (8-1)
Arizona 8-5 (6-3)
Oregon State 8-5 (6-3)
Stanford 8-5 (6-3)
USC 9-4 (5-4)
California 8-5 (5-4)
Washington 5-7 (4-5)
UCLA 7-6 (3-6)
Arizona State 4-8 (2-7)
Washington State 1-11 (0-9)
Returning Leaders: Passing
Kevin Riley, Cal, Sr (209 of 382 for 2850 yds, 18 TD, 8 INT)
Jake Locker, Washington, Sr (230 of 395 for 2800, 21 TD, 11 INT)
Matt Barkley, USC, Soph (211 of 352 for 2735, 15 TD, 14 INT)
Andrew Luck, Stanford, Soph (162 of 288 for 2575, 13 TD, 4 INT)
Nick Foles, Arizona, Jr (257 of 400 for 2465, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
LaMichael James, Oregon, Soph (230 carries for 1546 yds, 14 TD)
Jacquizz Rodgers, OSU, Jr (273 carries for 1440 yds, 21 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Chris Polk, Washington, Jr (226 carries for 1113 yds, 5 TD, 4.9 ypc)
Shane Vereen, Cal, Jr (183 carries for 952 yds, 12 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
James Rodgers, OSU, Sr (91 rec for 1034 yds, 9 TD, 7.0 rec/game)
Jacquizz Rodgers, OSU, Jr (78 rec for 522 yds, 1 TD, 6.0 rec/game)
Ryan Whalen, Stanford, Sr (57 rec for 926 yds, 4 TD, 4.4 rec/game)
Jeff Maehl, Oregon, Sr (53 rec for 696 yds, 6 TD, 4.1 rec/game)
Jermaine Kearse, Washington, Jr (50 rec for 866 yds, 8 TD)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Mike Mohamed, Cal, Sr, LB (111 total, 8.54 tackles/game)
John Boyett, Oregon, Soph, S (90 total, 6.92 tackles/game)
Mason Foster, Washington, Sr, LB (85 total, 7.08 tackles/game)
Alex Hoffman-Ellis, Wash St, Jr, LB (84 total, 7.64 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Kenny Rowe, Oregon, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ricky Elmore, Arizona, Sr, DE (10.5)
Nick Perry, USC, Soph, DE (9.0)
Thomas Keiser, Stanford, Jr, DE (8.0)
Cameron Jordan, Cal, Sr, DE (8.0)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Rahim Moore, UCLA, Jr, S (10 interceptions)
Trevin Wade, Arizona, Jr, CB (5)
Talmadge Jackson, Oregon, Sr, CB (4)
Akeem Ayers, UCLA, Jr, LB (4)
Around the Interweb
Who is your pick to win the Pac-10?
Scout.com's Oregon State site BeaverFootball.com:
It's hard not to pick Oregon, they have so much coming back. But the quarterback is so pivotal to that offense and team and Jeremiah Masoli had it down to a science. But with Masoli running afoul of the law and having been kicked off the team, the Ducks I think may falter in the chase for the crown. In the end, USC, allow they can't go to a bowl, finishes atop the Pac-10 standings.
Anthony from the USC based blog The Trojan Empire:
With 7 teams receiving first-place votes from the media, parity is evident in the Pac 10. I'm going to stray from the popular pick, which is Oregon, and choose the Beavers of Oregon State. Mike Riley's teams are notorious for slow starts, and have a difficult slate to begin the season, but once they enter Pac 10 play, they will entertain two of the conference favorites at home (USC, Oregon), while also welcoming the Golden Bears. Oregon appears a a world-beater at home, but no so much away from Autzen. USC has lost the last two games played in Corvallis, and if not for late Reggie Bush heroics, there would have been a third.
UCLA based blog The Trojan Haters Club:
One thing’s for sure – usc will not be representing the Conference in the Postseason this year. Even with all the defections, Lane Kiffin — a mediocre Head Coach at best — still has more talent on his roster than anyone else. But usc’s ban leaves Oregon in the driver’s seat to play in the Rose Bowl Game, even without dynamic stoner QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks seemed like the Class of the Pac-10 last season.
Breaking Down The Pac-10
Arizona Wildcats
Chris (Prediction: #7): The only reasons I have Arizona falling this far is that I'm not sold on the offense's ability to win shootout games in this league. The offense is perfectly adequate, but adequate won't do it in a league this stacked offensively. Also there are some questions defensively, as the Wildcats only return 4 starters from a pretty good defense a year ago, and will also have to deal with switching to a completely different scheme. This all adds up to not being a contender for the Pac-10 title.
Ross (Prediction: #6): They lose a ton on defense (7 starters), return a ton on offense (8 starters), lose both coordinators... but they have a favorable schedule (5 conference home games and two of the conference road games are winnable ones @ UCLA and @ Washington State). If you wanted to swap them with Washington, I wouldn't argue.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Chris (Prediction: #9): Offensively the Sun Devils will struggle...but not as much as most people think. Who can forget that Steven Threet was adequate at Michigan two years ago before transferring away from Rich Rod's option heavy spread? Threet may not be the Sun Devils' savior in 2010, but 2011 may be a different story, especially if linebacking sensation Vontaze Burfict sticks around for the party. The Sun Devils' 2010 storyline: O will struggle and D will be good...not 2009 good, but good.
Ross (Prediction #9): LB Vontaze Burfict is one of the best players in the league. Unfortunately, his teammates kinda suck.
California Golden Bears
Chris (Prediction: #6): Separating the teams in the middle of the Pac-10 is like choosing the hottest girl at a Curves...in other words, it's difficult and extremely agonizing. To pick Cal over Arizona, I have to believe that Cal's pass defense will improve drastically (despite only returning one starter and probably starting a freshman). I don't, but in a quarterback's league, no guy has more experience than Kevin Riley. Riley will use that experience to exploit Pac-10 secondaries alongside one of the nation's best up-and-coming running backs in Shane Vereen. Also, Jeff Tedford coached teams play too well for the Bears to fall any further.
Ross (Prediction: #5): This seems to be in the default range that Cal is settling into under Tedford: good, but not great. Kevin Riley's back for a third year as starter, but he's shown little that makes you think he could lead them to the promised land. Still, the bottom rarely falls out on Tedford teams and they should have a strong offense.
Oregon Ducks
Chris (Prediction #1): At first I was skeptical about Oregon's contention (in the Pac-10 and nationally) without returning 2-year starter Jeremiah Masoli, but then a familiar name appeared in the starting lineup...one Nate Costa. Costa may not be a Masoli (which at this point we can't take as completely a bad thing, right?), but with all of the skill position talent at his disposal, and a completely intact offensive line, I have faith in Costa. Add in 8 returning starters on an improving defense and your have your conference champs. Oh wait, and did I mention LAMICHAEL JAMES!? How many guys in recent history can you remember who didn't start the season and finished with 1,500 yards rushing. Yeah, that's right, THIS GUY! They will ride on James' coattails all year, and James (who quickly became one of the nation's best) will lead them to Pac-10 glory.
Ross (Prediction: #1): Even without Masoli, this team is loaded on offense (9 returning starters, including the entire offensive line) and features a lot of returning faces on defense, too. If they get decent performance out of whoever emerges at QB, they should again be very, very good. The one concern: the schedule has them going to USC, Cal, and Oregon State, three difficult road games.
Oregon State Beavers
Chris (Prediction #4): The Rodgers' brothers are going to rewrite a lot of Oregon State records together. That doesn't necessarily equal Pac-10 contention, but if they stay healthy, there's no arguing that they can make a run at the Rose Bowl. The key will be sophomore quarterback Ryan Katz (assuming he's the starter). If the Rodgers' brothers have to drag him along for the whole ride, it's unlikely the Beavers will even crack the top half. But the offensive and defensive talent is such that if Katz is just efficient and the Beavers' staff plays not to lose (a risky way to play believe it or not) they should finish high enough to warrant a good bowl and season they can be proud of.
Ross (Prediction #2): Definite potential to be atop the league, given how much they return on offense (8 overall, including 4/5 of the offensive line and the marvelous Rodgers brothers) and the fact that Riley has developed into one of the most consistently good and reliable coaches in the Pac 10. They also have a fairly favorable schedule, with three of their top opponents (Cal, USC, Oregon) all coming to Corvallis. Breaking in a brand-new QB is a worry, though.
Stanford Cardinal
Chris (Prediction: #3): Even if the Cardinal lost Heisman Trophy candidate Toby Gerhart, they return the Pac-10's most efficient passer...yes, sophomore Andrew Luck...not that kid named Clausen. The Cardinal may have snuck up on some teams last year, but this year teams will be wary from the get-go. Luck will have to turn that efficiency into even more productivity after losing his backfield mate, and especially with a suspect defense, will have to win more shootouts this year than a year ago. But don't sleep on Coach Jim Harbaugh. He is almost ready to contend annually for the Pac-10 hardware.
Ross (Prediction #4): There are reasons not to like them, like their porous defense, the fact that their star player and leader (Toby Gerhart) is gone, and the fact that they have a slew of potentially difficult road games (@ Notre Dame, @ Oregon, @ Washington, @ Cal)... but they also have arguably the best QB in the conference (Andrew Luck) and he has a lot of weapons back and Harbaugh has done such an incredible job of turning that program around that it's hard to bet against him.
UCLA Bruins
Chris (Prediction: #8): The Bruins have improved under Rick Neuheisel, and enjoyed some tempered success. However, this group is too young to contend for anything and the upward trend will at least be put on hold this year. That doesn't mean watching that other team from Los Angeles couldn't be exciting too. For one thing, the Bruins boast preseason All-Conference pick Rahim Moore, who last year picked off a PHENOMENAL 10 passes! $20 on him not topping that total this year to anyone who will take it, but if he does, doesn't that validate my they can be exciting claim?
Ross (Prediction: #8): They return a lot on offense and another year with Norm Chow should only help them progress on that front; unfortunately, they're going to need to outscore most of their opponents because they return little on defense and just lost one of their best players (Datone Jones) to an injury.
USC Trojans
Chris (Prediction: #2)- Many have the Trojans winning the Pac-10, especially now with Jeremiah Masoli moving on to Ole Miss, but I'm not sold. First off, how will the Trojans perform under the damper of not being able to play in the postseason? What about the other restrictions imposed by the NCAA? What about their enigmatic new head coach Lane Kiffin, who although has shown some impressive recruiting tactics, has yet to prove himself to be a great coach. Or how about their savior of a quarterback? You know, the kid who sort of kind of did something that was almost amazing but not really (beating Ohio State by giving the ball to Joe McKnight on pass plays to pad his stats on that final drive). Also, as a Pac-10 assistant correctly pointed out, Barkley didn't really improve with time. He makes too many mistakes, as was highlighted in his senior year of high school when he threw more picks than TD's...yet still managed to be a top prospect. Add to that the Trojans numbers last year (especially offensively where they struggled mightily for USC standards) and their sub-par defensive stats, and you've got the classic case of over-hyped team! The only reason that I am ranking them this high is that yes they are USC, and yes they have talent, especially at running back. If they can utilize their running backs' talent, get Matt Barkley to start throwing to his teammates and improve upon what is likely to be the worst SC defense of the last ten years, they have a chance to even be #1 in the Pac-10 next year. But any injuries become truly perilous, because their two-deep is just slathered with freshmen.
Ross (Prediction: #3): The bottom is going to drop out soon enough, but in the meantime they still have quite a bit of talent in the two-deeps and the ability to play the "us against the world" card while it's still fresh. On the other hand, Kiffin's track record as a HC isn't exactly great, they have a few tricky road games (@ Stanford, @ Oregon State), and this team will have a lot of distractions to try and overcome.
Washington Huskies
Chris (Prediction: #5): Despite not buying into the Jake Locker is the best quarterback in America circus (he's very good, but at least on the college level he's a poor man's Tebow...which pains me to say), it is impossible to ignore the offensive firepower they return. Add in what should be an improved defense, and you've got a team destined to finish in the top half of the conference.
Ross (Prediction: #7): The Huskies have a lot back on both sides of the ball (10 on offense, 8 on defense), good coaching, and made a lot of progress last year. A higher finish certainly wouldn't be a big surprise; I'm holding off until I see them win a few more games and prove that they can get over the hump. They're right on the cusp, though.
Washington State Cougars
Chris (Prediction: #10): Not very many people know how bad the Cougars were last year, because in an improved Pac-10 there was plenty of good to focus in on...which left the magnifying glass off the Cougars at the bottom. Not only did they not win a Pac-10 game, going 0-9, the Cougars failed to score 20 points on any team not named SMU...which represented their one win on the season. The Cougars ranked last in the Pac-10 in every major offensive and defensive category, and save passing offense (which ranked 100th nationally), they finished every major offensive or defensive category ranked below 115. The team brings back 11 starters total. A total which doesn't include their leading passer, rusher, or a returning punter or kicker. You can look at that one of two ways...the first, it's a lot of new blood that can possibly improve upon their dismal showing from a year ago. The second way...it's going to be an even rougher season in the basement of the Pac-10. I tend to side with the second one.
Ross (Prediction: #10): Someday they'll be good again. Probably. Maybe. In any event, it ain't happening this year. Their goal should be getting their average margin of defeat under 30 ppg -- then they can start thinking about inching towards respectability again.
CFBZ Predicted Pac-10 Finish
1. Oregon Ducks
2. Oregon State Beavers
3. USC Trojans
4. Stanford Cardinal
5. Washington Huskies
6. Arizona Wildcats
7. California Golden Bears
8. UCLA Bruins
9. Arizona State Wildcats
10. Washington State Cougars
Oregon 10-3 (8-1)
Arizona 8-5 (6-3)
Oregon State 8-5 (6-3)
Stanford 8-5 (6-3)
USC 9-4 (5-4)
California 8-5 (5-4)
Washington 5-7 (4-5)
UCLA 7-6 (3-6)
Arizona State 4-8 (2-7)
Washington State 1-11 (0-9)
Returning Leaders: Passing
Kevin Riley, Cal, Sr (209 of 382 for 2850 yds, 18 TD, 8 INT)
Jake Locker, Washington, Sr (230 of 395 for 2800, 21 TD, 11 INT)
Matt Barkley, USC, Soph (211 of 352 for 2735, 15 TD, 14 INT)
Andrew Luck, Stanford, Soph (162 of 288 for 2575, 13 TD, 4 INT)
Nick Foles, Arizona, Jr (257 of 400 for 2465, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
LaMichael James, Oregon, Soph (230 carries for 1546 yds, 14 TD)
Jacquizz Rodgers, OSU, Jr (273 carries for 1440 yds, 21 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Chris Polk, Washington, Jr (226 carries for 1113 yds, 5 TD, 4.9 ypc)
Shane Vereen, Cal, Jr (183 carries for 952 yds, 12 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
James Rodgers, OSU, Sr (91 rec for 1034 yds, 9 TD, 7.0 rec/game)
Jacquizz Rodgers, OSU, Jr (78 rec for 522 yds, 1 TD, 6.0 rec/game)
Ryan Whalen, Stanford, Sr (57 rec for 926 yds, 4 TD, 4.4 rec/game)
Jeff Maehl, Oregon, Sr (53 rec for 696 yds, 6 TD, 4.1 rec/game)
Jermaine Kearse, Washington, Jr (50 rec for 866 yds, 8 TD)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Mike Mohamed, Cal, Sr, LB (111 total, 8.54 tackles/game)
John Boyett, Oregon, Soph, S (90 total, 6.92 tackles/game)
Mason Foster, Washington, Sr, LB (85 total, 7.08 tackles/game)
Alex Hoffman-Ellis, Wash St, Jr, LB (84 total, 7.64 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Kenny Rowe, Oregon, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ricky Elmore, Arizona, Sr, DE (10.5)
Nick Perry, USC, Soph, DE (9.0)
Thomas Keiser, Stanford, Jr, DE (8.0)
Cameron Jordan, Cal, Sr, DE (8.0)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Rahim Moore, UCLA, Jr, S (10 interceptions)
Trevin Wade, Arizona, Jr, CB (5)
Talmadge Jackson, Oregon, Sr, CB (4)
Akeem Ayers, UCLA, Jr, LB (4)
Around the Interweb
Who is your pick to win the Pac-10?
Scout.com's Oregon State site BeaverFootball.com:
It's hard not to pick Oregon, they have so much coming back. But the quarterback is so pivotal to that offense and team and Jeremiah Masoli had it down to a science. But with Masoli running afoul of the law and having been kicked off the team, the Ducks I think may falter in the chase for the crown. In the end, USC, allow they can't go to a bowl, finishes atop the Pac-10 standings.
Anthony from the USC based blog The Trojan Empire:
With 7 teams receiving first-place votes from the media, parity is evident in the Pac 10. I'm going to stray from the popular pick, which is Oregon, and choose the Beavers of Oregon State. Mike Riley's teams are notorious for slow starts, and have a difficult slate to begin the season, but once they enter Pac 10 play, they will entertain two of the conference favorites at home (USC, Oregon), while also welcoming the Golden Bears. Oregon appears a a world-beater at home, but no so much away from Autzen. USC has lost the last two games played in Corvallis, and if not for late Reggie Bush heroics, there would have been a third.
UCLA based blog The Trojan Haters Club:
One thing’s for sure – usc will not be representing the Conference in the Postseason this year. Even with all the defections, Lane Kiffin — a mediocre Head Coach at best — still has more talent on his roster than anyone else. But usc’s ban leaves Oregon in the driver’s seat to play in the Rose Bowl Game, even without dynamic stoner QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks seemed like the Class of the Pac-10 last season.
Breaking Down The Pac-10
Arizona Wildcats
Chris (Prediction: #7): The only reasons I have Arizona falling this far is that I'm not sold on the offense's ability to win shootout games in this league. The offense is perfectly adequate, but adequate won't do it in a league this stacked offensively. Also there are some questions defensively, as the Wildcats only return 4 starters from a pretty good defense a year ago, and will also have to deal with switching to a completely different scheme. This all adds up to not being a contender for the Pac-10 title.
Ross (Prediction: #6): They lose a ton on defense (7 starters), return a ton on offense (8 starters), lose both coordinators... but they have a favorable schedule (5 conference home games and two of the conference road games are winnable ones @ UCLA and @ Washington State). If you wanted to swap them with Washington, I wouldn't argue.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Chris (Prediction: #9): Offensively the Sun Devils will struggle...but not as much as most people think. Who can forget that Steven Threet was adequate at Michigan two years ago before transferring away from Rich Rod's option heavy spread? Threet may not be the Sun Devils' savior in 2010, but 2011 may be a different story, especially if linebacking sensation Vontaze Burfict sticks around for the party. The Sun Devils' 2010 storyline: O will struggle and D will be good...not 2009 good, but good.
Ross (Prediction #9): LB Vontaze Burfict is one of the best players in the league. Unfortunately, his teammates kinda suck.
California Golden Bears
Chris (Prediction: #6): Separating the teams in the middle of the Pac-10 is like choosing the hottest girl at a Curves...in other words, it's difficult and extremely agonizing. To pick Cal over Arizona, I have to believe that Cal's pass defense will improve drastically (despite only returning one starter and probably starting a freshman). I don't, but in a quarterback's league, no guy has more experience than Kevin Riley. Riley will use that experience to exploit Pac-10 secondaries alongside one of the nation's best up-and-coming running backs in Shane Vereen. Also, Jeff Tedford coached teams play too well for the Bears to fall any further.
Ross (Prediction: #5): This seems to be in the default range that Cal is settling into under Tedford: good, but not great. Kevin Riley's back for a third year as starter, but he's shown little that makes you think he could lead them to the promised land. Still, the bottom rarely falls out on Tedford teams and they should have a strong offense.
Oregon Ducks
Chris (Prediction #1): At first I was skeptical about Oregon's contention (in the Pac-10 and nationally) without returning 2-year starter Jeremiah Masoli, but then a familiar name appeared in the starting lineup...one Nate Costa. Costa may not be a Masoli (which at this point we can't take as completely a bad thing, right?), but with all of the skill position talent at his disposal, and a completely intact offensive line, I have faith in Costa. Add in 8 returning starters on an improving defense and your have your conference champs. Oh wait, and did I mention LAMICHAEL JAMES!? How many guys in recent history can you remember who didn't start the season and finished with 1,500 yards rushing. Yeah, that's right, THIS GUY! They will ride on James' coattails all year, and James (who quickly became one of the nation's best) will lead them to Pac-10 glory.
Ross (Prediction: #1): Even without Masoli, this team is loaded on offense (9 returning starters, including the entire offensive line) and features a lot of returning faces on defense, too. If they get decent performance out of whoever emerges at QB, they should again be very, very good. The one concern: the schedule has them going to USC, Cal, and Oregon State, three difficult road games.
Oregon State Beavers
Chris (Prediction #4): The Rodgers' brothers are going to rewrite a lot of Oregon State records together. That doesn't necessarily equal Pac-10 contention, but if they stay healthy, there's no arguing that they can make a run at the Rose Bowl. The key will be sophomore quarterback Ryan Katz (assuming he's the starter). If the Rodgers' brothers have to drag him along for the whole ride, it's unlikely the Beavers will even crack the top half. But the offensive and defensive talent is such that if Katz is just efficient and the Beavers' staff plays not to lose (a risky way to play believe it or not) they should finish high enough to warrant a good bowl and season they can be proud of.
Ross (Prediction #2): Definite potential to be atop the league, given how much they return on offense (8 overall, including 4/5 of the offensive line and the marvelous Rodgers brothers) and the fact that Riley has developed into one of the most consistently good and reliable coaches in the Pac 10. They also have a fairly favorable schedule, with three of their top opponents (Cal, USC, Oregon) all coming to Corvallis. Breaking in a brand-new QB is a worry, though.
Stanford Cardinal
Chris (Prediction: #3): Even if the Cardinal lost Heisman Trophy candidate Toby Gerhart, they return the Pac-10's most efficient passer...yes, sophomore Andrew Luck...not that kid named Clausen. The Cardinal may have snuck up on some teams last year, but this year teams will be wary from the get-go. Luck will have to turn that efficiency into even more productivity after losing his backfield mate, and especially with a suspect defense, will have to win more shootouts this year than a year ago. But don't sleep on Coach Jim Harbaugh. He is almost ready to contend annually for the Pac-10 hardware.
Ross (Prediction #4): There are reasons not to like them, like their porous defense, the fact that their star player and leader (Toby Gerhart) is gone, and the fact that they have a slew of potentially difficult road games (@ Notre Dame, @ Oregon, @ Washington, @ Cal)... but they also have arguably the best QB in the conference (Andrew Luck) and he has a lot of weapons back and Harbaugh has done such an incredible job of turning that program around that it's hard to bet against him.
UCLA Bruins
Chris (Prediction: #8): The Bruins have improved under Rick Neuheisel, and enjoyed some tempered success. However, this group is too young to contend for anything and the upward trend will at least be put on hold this year. That doesn't mean watching that other team from Los Angeles couldn't be exciting too. For one thing, the Bruins boast preseason All-Conference pick Rahim Moore, who last year picked off a PHENOMENAL 10 passes! $20 on him not topping that total this year to anyone who will take it, but if he does, doesn't that validate my they can be exciting claim?
Ross (Prediction: #8): They return a lot on offense and another year with Norm Chow should only help them progress on that front; unfortunately, they're going to need to outscore most of their opponents because they return little on defense and just lost one of their best players (Datone Jones) to an injury.
USC Trojans
Chris (Prediction: #2)- Many have the Trojans winning the Pac-10, especially now with Jeremiah Masoli moving on to Ole Miss, but I'm not sold. First off, how will the Trojans perform under the damper of not being able to play in the postseason? What about the other restrictions imposed by the NCAA? What about their enigmatic new head coach Lane Kiffin, who although has shown some impressive recruiting tactics, has yet to prove himself to be a great coach. Or how about their savior of a quarterback? You know, the kid who sort of kind of did something that was almost amazing but not really (beating Ohio State by giving the ball to Joe McKnight on pass plays to pad his stats on that final drive). Also, as a Pac-10 assistant correctly pointed out, Barkley didn't really improve with time. He makes too many mistakes, as was highlighted in his senior year of high school when he threw more picks than TD's...yet still managed to be a top prospect. Add to that the Trojans numbers last year (especially offensively where they struggled mightily for USC standards) and their sub-par defensive stats, and you've got the classic case of over-hyped team! The only reason that I am ranking them this high is that yes they are USC, and yes they have talent, especially at running back. If they can utilize their running backs' talent, get Matt Barkley to start throwing to his teammates and improve upon what is likely to be the worst SC defense of the last ten years, they have a chance to even be #1 in the Pac-10 next year. But any injuries become truly perilous, because their two-deep is just slathered with freshmen.
Ross (Prediction: #3): The bottom is going to drop out soon enough, but in the meantime they still have quite a bit of talent in the two-deeps and the ability to play the "us against the world" card while it's still fresh. On the other hand, Kiffin's track record as a HC isn't exactly great, they have a few tricky road games (@ Stanford, @ Oregon State), and this team will have a lot of distractions to try and overcome.
Washington Huskies
Chris (Prediction: #5): Despite not buying into the Jake Locker is the best quarterback in America circus (he's very good, but at least on the college level he's a poor man's Tebow...which pains me to say), it is impossible to ignore the offensive firepower they return. Add in what should be an improved defense, and you've got a team destined to finish in the top half of the conference.
Ross (Prediction: #7): The Huskies have a lot back on both sides of the ball (10 on offense, 8 on defense), good coaching, and made a lot of progress last year. A higher finish certainly wouldn't be a big surprise; I'm holding off until I see them win a few more games and prove that they can get over the hump. They're right on the cusp, though.
Washington State Cougars
Chris (Prediction: #10): Not very many people know how bad the Cougars were last year, because in an improved Pac-10 there was plenty of good to focus in on...which left the magnifying glass off the Cougars at the bottom. Not only did they not win a Pac-10 game, going 0-9, the Cougars failed to score 20 points on any team not named SMU...which represented their one win on the season. The Cougars ranked last in the Pac-10 in every major offensive and defensive category, and save passing offense (which ranked 100th nationally), they finished every major offensive or defensive category ranked below 115. The team brings back 11 starters total. A total which doesn't include their leading passer, rusher, or a returning punter or kicker. You can look at that one of two ways...the first, it's a lot of new blood that can possibly improve upon their dismal showing from a year ago. The second way...it's going to be an even rougher season in the basement of the Pac-10. I tend to side with the second one.
Ross (Prediction: #10): Someday they'll be good again. Probably. Maybe. In any event, it ain't happening this year. Their goal should be getting their average margin of defeat under 30 ppg -- then they can start thinking about inching towards respectability again.
CFBZ Predicted Pac-10 Finish
1. Oregon Ducks
2. Oregon State Beavers
3. USC Trojans
4. Stanford Cardinal
5. Washington Huskies
6. Arizona Wildcats
7. California Golden Bears
8. UCLA Bruins
9. Arizona State Wildcats
10. Washington State Cougars
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Pre-Season Preview: Stanford Cardinal
2009 Record: 8-5 (6-3 in Pac-10)
2009 Bowl: Sun Bowl (lost to Oklahoma 31-27)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: 29th (received 67 votes)
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (17-20 at Stanford, 46-26 All-Time)
Non-Conference Schedule: Sacramento State (9/4), Wake Forest (9/18), at Notre Dame (9/25)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 35.5 points per game (2nd in Pac-10)
Rushing Yards/Game: 218 (2nd in Pac-10)
Passing Yards/Game: 209 (8th in Pac-10)
Total Yards/Game: 427 (1st in Pac-10)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 26.5 points per game (8th in Pac-10)
Rushing Yards/Game: 137 (7th in Pac-10)
Passing Yards/Game: 264 (8th in Pac-10)
Total Yards/Game: 402 (9th in Pac-10)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: 0.00 per game (6th in Pac-10)
Penalties: 52 yards per game (3rd in Pac-10)
Returning Starters
Offense: 8
Defense: 7
Kicker/Punter: 2
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Andrew Luck, Soph (162 of 288 for 2575 yds, 13 TD, 4 INT, 214 ypg)
Rushing: RB Stephan Taylor, Soph (56 carries for 306 yds, 2 TD, 4.6 ypc, 25 ypg)
Receiving: WR Ryan Whalen, Sr (57 rec, 926 yds, 4 TD, 4.4 rec/game, 71 ypg)
Tackles: SS Delano Howell, Jr (77)
Sacks: OLB Thomas Keiser, Jr (8)
Interceptions: SS Delano Howell, Jr (2)
Pac-10 Unit Rankings
QB: Athlon Sports #3; Phil Steele #2
RB: Athlon Sports #7; Phil Steele #7
WR/TE: Athlon Sports #5; Phil Steele #2
OL: Athlon Sports #1; Phil Steele #1
DL: Athlon Sports #6; Phil Steele #9
LB: Athlon Sports #6; Phil Steele #2
DB: Athlon Sports #9; Phil Steele #9
ST: Phil Steele #2
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #32
Mark Schlabach: #24
Phil Steele: #34
Sporting News: #97
2010 Pre-Season Pac-10 Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #4
Phil Steele: #5 (tied with Oregon State and Washington)
2010 Bowl Prediction
Athlon Sports: Las Vegas Bowl (vs. TCU)
Phil Steele: Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (vs. Boise State)
Stanford gained the most yards on offense in the Pac-10 last year but gave up the second most. Toby Gerhart has moved on so this year they will need more help from their defense. Highly touted pro prospect Andrew Luck will lead Stanford in his second year at the helm behind a quality offensive line. Despite losing 5 games last year, Stanford did not lose a game by more than 10 points. They had back-to-back wins against Top 10 teams (Oregon and USC). And the USC game was a drubbing that sent warning signs across the Pac-10. Jim Harbaugh looks like he's here to stay at Stanford and behind him the Cardinal could become a consistent top tier Pac-10 team. We turned to Jim "Emeritus" Rutter, Co-Founder & Editor of The Bootleg, to learn more about Stanford football.
What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the team?
Strengths: Obviously, it helps to start out with QB Andrew Luck (#12), Scout.com’s 2009 National Freshman of the Year, who should be even better in 2010 with a year of playing experience under his belt. Luck will benefit greatly from the return of most of the offensive line [plus outstanding senior fullback Owen Marecic (#48)] that paved the way for NFL-bound Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart. Defensively, outside linebackers Thomas Keiser (#94), who led the team with 9.0 sacks in ’09, and Chase Thomas (#93) are solid, but they are changing positions in the transition to a 3-4 defense. KR Chris Owusu (#81) has sprinter-class speed and is a legitimate threat to score any time a team decides to kick to him. He averaged 31.5 yards per return and took three back for TDs in the first four games of the 2009 season. One can’t underestimate the dramatic impact of a superior kick-return game. Stanford finished third in the country in kickoff return average last year and had its first winning season in eight years. The other four schools in the top five in kick return average produced a combined record of 51-3! Field position is half the battle!
Weaknesses: Offensively, there are not a lot of holes, even with the departure of the amazing Gerhart and his 28 rushing TDs. Depth in the defensive front seven, which lost standout veterans Erik Lorig, Ekom Udofia, Will Powers, and Clinton Snyder, remains a legitimate concern. The young secondary, which lost a ball-hawking playmaker in veteran safety Bo McNally (#22) to graduation, needs to improve its pass coverage (Oklahoma managed an alarming 20 passing first downs in the 2009 Brut Sun Bowl using their backup quarterback), but overall, the group could experience a moderate upgrade. We simply can’t meet our ambitious team goals while ranking 98th in the FBS in pass efficiency defense and 110th in passing yards allowed. In fairness, the 2009 Stanford defense certainly played very well at times, but you can’t surrender an average of more than 400 yards per game (and a total of 23 passing touchdowns) and expect to win every week. If the 2010 spring game is any indication, new Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio, a very experienced NFL veteran, seems determined to produce dramatic improvement in 2010. One clear goal for this coming season will be to achieve a vast improvement in the Cardinal’s turnover margin (17/17). During the 2009 season, 36 FBS defenses, managed to generate at least 25 total turnovers. If you ask me, that ought to be on the whiteboard as a reasonable 2010 goal.
Looking at the schedule, who will be the first major test and why?
Not to disrespect to our opening FCS opponent Sacramento State (they are moving toward becoming FBS and conceivably could end up in the WAC), but the first true test should be Game 2 against UCLA at the Rose Bowl, a traditional conference rival with similar overall talent, although I expect Stanford’s veteran offensive line to compare favorably and make the difference in the game. The two programs cross paths a lot on the recruiting trail and many of Stanford’s players come from Southern California, so it will be seen as a statement-making opportunity by each school. As Cardinal fans will painfully recall, Stanford essentially gave away the game in Pasadena two years ago, settling for a field goal with 2:31 left and then miserably surrendering a last-minute 87-yard game-winning drive against a decidedly mediocre Bruin quarterback in Kevin Craft (Who?). “Air Cardinal” managed all of 51 net passing yards in that contest, which won’t happen again with Andrew Luck around. That dramatic and disappointing result at UCLA could well represent the most devastating loss of the Jim Harbaugh era and looking back, it cost the program a bowl appearance in 2008. Time for some good old-fashioned gridiron redemption.
What team on the schedule do you fear the most?
As our dynamic fourth-year Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has said, “We bow to no program!” The revitalized Stanford Football program has worked very hard to upgrade its talent and be the team others need to fear. Still, everyone worries about something. I guess we would dread the thought of losing to Sacramento State. Unlikely, but on any given Saturday… That would “look” pretty bad and provide an early season buzz-kill. Oregon will be a tough challenge and Autzen Stadium is certainly an exciting, if not intimidating place to play. I would say we ”respect” the Ducks more than “fear” them, but getting a win at Oregon is never a picnic. A team that should fear us? Wake Forest. We feel we were the better team last fall and our guys will be looking to prove themselves this September 18th in the highly-anticipated rematch at Stanford Stadium. That game should be well-worth the price of admission.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
I don’t know if “nobody talks about him”, but on defense, redshirt junior Thomas Keiser (#94) is a very good football player. Offensively, 6’6’ 250-pound TE/WR Coby Fleener (#82) rarely gets a mention, but he is a matchup nightmare and is solid as a brick wall (just ask former USC safety Taylor Mays). There are not many true fullbacks in college anymore, but Owen Marecic (#48) is legit. It is fun to watch him not just block, but demoralize would-be tacklers. Sure-handed, hard-working WR Ryan Whalen (#8), a former walk-on, doesn’t get much press outside of the Bay Area. Sure, he wasn’t Texas’ Jordan Shipley, but Whalen came close to producing 1,000-yards receiving on a team that primarily ran the ball!
Others deserving greater recognition include fast-rising redshirt sophomore offensive tackle Jonathan “Moose” Martin (#73) and redshirt sophomore pass-rushing specialist Chase Thomas (#93). The most tantalizing inside “buzz” has been about towering, but athletic 6’8” redshirt freshman TE Levine Toilolo (#11) and his ridiculous red-zone skills. And while he hasn’t seen the field much, redshirt sophomore Alex Debniak (#51) is a remarkably fast linebacker who runs the ball too well not to get some carries – he could be a great candidate for critical short-yardage situations as well.
Who is the best offensive player on the team?
Of the skill players, QB Andrew Luck (#12). We would not trade him for another current college quarterback. Skills, arm-strength, brains, leadership, desire – the young man is the real deal, the complete package. Of the “Bigs”, it would be hard to rank anyone above outstanding OG David DeCastro (#52).
Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?
That would probably be sophomore ILB Shayne Skov (#11), because of the strength and aggressiveness Shayne brings to the field. His enthusiasm is infectious. Still has a lot of remaining upside. The interior d-line group has a couple of formidable studs in Matt Masifilo (#98) and Sione Fua (#92). These guys are the backbone of the defense – when Masifilo was out with injury in 2009, the defense struggled, then improved noticeably when he returned. That has been our challenge on defense in recent years, not failing to have some quality players, but just not having enough veteran depth. He has a long way to go, but we might want to mention ever-intriguing junior Delano Howell (#26). If Howell, who switched to defense last year, can improve his coverage skills dramatically, one would have to include the hard-hitting sophomore safety among the difference-making defensive players. All of these guys are pretty good bets to play on Sundays.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach its full capability?
It is hard to make up for the loss of a once-in-a-generation player like Toby Gerhart (#7). We need to reload with one or both of our terrific sophomore running backs, Stepfan Taylor (#33) and Tyler Gaffney (#25). One of these two will have to carry a big part of the load for a team that will prefer to stick with its well-established, smash-mouth style-of-play. Personally, I think Taylor has the look of a 1,000-yard rusher. Gaffney, a gifted baseball player as well, is a tenacious competitor with tremendous potential as a feature back.
We are certainly hoping for a break-out season from TE Konrad Reuland (#88), but realistically, it will be nearly impossible to replace graduated TE Jim Dray (#83). The fact is, we may actually be stronger at the TE position overall with the availability of talented redshirt freshmen Zach Ertz (#86) and Levine Toilolo (#11) and the continued emergence of Coby Fleener (#82), who might well be a legitimate force in the NFL some day. However, as for having a truly complete TE that was dominant in the run game, able to catch the ball in the red-zone, and most importantly does not mark for opposing defenses whether we are running or passing, Jimmy Dray will certainly be missed.
Fifth-year senior James McGillicuddy (#74) could be the key to the overall performance of the o-line in ‘10. To get to “full capability”, it would help to find a greater number of reliable targets for Luck. We hope to see the emergence of Jamal-Rashad Patterson (#21) or Doug Baldwin (#89) as a fiery, big-play third receiver. A third-down, multi-purpose back with some wiggle would be helpful as well. Fifth-year senior CB/RS/WR Richard Sherman (#9) is a bit of a wildcard, a dynamic playmaker who needs to put it all together and have a monster final year. Personally, I would like to see #9 occasionally at WR. The Cardinal’s most interesting trump card could come from the successful design of an optimal role for versatile fifth-year senior QB/WR Alex Loukas (#15), a very skilled athlete who might allow Stanford to mix it up a bit. Yes, he may see some reps at safety, but don’t be surprised if #15 slips in at QB at some point and nearly single-handedly wins a game for us. He is, if anything, a fascinating “x-factor”.
Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year (freshman, redshirt freshman or JUCO)?
JUCO? Well, technically, Konrad Reuland briefly attended a junior college after transferring from Notre Dame, but he never played football at Saddleback. The last “JUCO player” we had transfer to Stanford, Blaine Maxfield, arrived on campus back in 1996! It just isn’t a pool from which our program, from an academic standpoint, realistically can expect to draw. Redshirt freshman CB/RB/RS Usua Amanam (#5), the 2008 MaxPreps.com Division I State Player of the Year (Calif.) and 2008 GoldenStatePreps.com Northern California Player of the Year, is a very special athlete. He was out last year with an injury, but should be 100% and ready to turn some heads wherever he ends up on the field. Of the incoming freshmen (and you never really know anything until you actually see the kids in fall camp)…well, put it this way, the Cardinal coaching staff liked incoming RB Anthony Wilkerson even better than 2009-10 Gatorade National Football Player of the Year Malcolm Jones (UCLA). He is no lock to redshirt in 2010.
In thinking about the offensive newcomer that might provide the highest impact, it might surprise some that we would suggest Jordan Williamson, an incoming freshman place-kicker from Austin, TX. There is a good chance that Williamson will see the field in 2010. He will certainly be in competition for the kick-off job. The 150-pounder was absolutely crushing the ball at Stanford’s kicker camp a year ago. If you think Nate Whitaker (#39) has a big leg (and indeed he does)....just wait until you see this skinny, but strong-legged lad from the Lone Star State.
You asked about this year, but looking out a bit longer-term, Cardinal fans should keep an eye out for incoming freshman Darren Daniel from Alabama. He had a modest recruiting profile, but he is a tremendous athlete who could emerge as the best offensive player on the team at some point. Another future star is David Yankey from Georgia, who headlines a stellar four-man class of incoming freshmen offensive linemen.
Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
This one is easy - true freshman ILB Blake Lueders, who originally had committed to Notre Dame before seeing the light. The Indiana native passes the “eyeball test” with flying colors – dude already looks like an upperclassman. Staff is pretty excited. Given the uncertainty of the current depth chart, redshirt sophomore Harold Bernard (#28) and true freshman safety Devon Carrington could get into the mix at safety. We have corners with some experience, but redshirt freshman Terrance Brown (#6) and true freshman cornerback Keanu Nelson will have a chance to impress in the fall.
What are your thoughts on adding Utah and Colorado to the Pac-10?
Hey, the current reality is that every college athletic program is desperate to generate more money. I might have preferred keeping things the way they have been for the past 32 years. If the “Pac-12” conference officials can figure out a way for us to continue to play traditional rivals USC & UCLA every year and makes sure the newcomers understand that you only get four downs in the Pac-12, I think we may end up liking it, especially if the conference gets a dedicated network deal. We have some fairly recent football history with both Utah (1989, 1995, 1996) and Colorado (1977, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1993). During basketball season, it should make for some world-class ski/hoops vacation combos. Other than the mega-money, I don’t think many alumni and fans really wanted to be in the same conference with Texas and Oklahoma, for a variety of reasons. We’d rather just meet them in the post-season.
Gut feeling on the team’s final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
Assuming the health of our starting QB, the Cardinal should be able to play with anybody. One challenge will be to adjust to four new members of the coaching staff. To me, a “successful season” would involve playing everyone tough, having a winning record in-conference, and getting to another upper-tier bowl game. Optimistically, I can see anywhere from 8-4 to 10-2 in the regular season, assuming average attrition from injuries. It is a little hard to predict how much our defense can improve in the first year of transition to a new scheme. Special teams should continue to be a major team strength. Not long after he first arrived, Jim Harbaugh boldly predicted that Stanford would be in a BCS game by 2010. Probably a bit of a stretch, but with a little luck and a lot of “Luck”, it could happen. After all, Stanford was about three very make-able plays away from being 11-1 during the 2009 regular season, losing agonizing nail-biters to Wake Forest, Arizona, and California. Motivation should not be a problem.
Make sure you visit The Bootleg as it's THE place to follow Stanford football. You can also follow them on twitter @TheBootleg.
Previous Pac-10 Previews
Arizona State Sun Devils
Oregon Ducks
USC Trojans
Washington Huskies
Next Up: Central Michigan Chippewas
2010 Previews
ACC- Boston College Eagles, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins
Big 12- Kansas State Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, USF Bulls, West Virginia Mountaineers
Big Ten- Michigan Wolverines, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Northwestern Wildcats, Purdue Boilermakers
Conference USA- Houston Cougars, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
MAC- Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets
Mountain West- Utah Utes
SEC- Auburn Tigers, Kentucky Wildcats, Mississippi Rebels, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
Sun Belt- Troy Trojans
WAC- New Mexico State Aggies
2009 Bowl: Sun Bowl (lost to Oklahoma 31-27)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: 29th (received 67 votes)
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (17-20 at Stanford, 46-26 All-Time)
Non-Conference Schedule: Sacramento State (9/4), Wake Forest (9/18), at Notre Dame (9/25)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 35.5 points per game (2nd in Pac-10)
Rushing Yards/Game: 218 (2nd in Pac-10)
Passing Yards/Game: 209 (8th in Pac-10)
Total Yards/Game: 427 (1st in Pac-10)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 26.5 points per game (8th in Pac-10)
Rushing Yards/Game: 137 (7th in Pac-10)
Passing Yards/Game: 264 (8th in Pac-10)
Total Yards/Game: 402 (9th in Pac-10)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: 0.00 per game (6th in Pac-10)
Penalties: 52 yards per game (3rd in Pac-10)
Returning Starters
Offense: 8
Defense: 7
Kicker/Punter: 2
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Andrew Luck, Soph (162 of 288 for 2575 yds, 13 TD, 4 INT, 214 ypg)
Rushing: RB Stephan Taylor, Soph (56 carries for 306 yds, 2 TD, 4.6 ypc, 25 ypg)
Receiving: WR Ryan Whalen, Sr (57 rec, 926 yds, 4 TD, 4.4 rec/game, 71 ypg)
Tackles: SS Delano Howell, Jr (77)
Sacks: OLB Thomas Keiser, Jr (8)
Interceptions: SS Delano Howell, Jr (2)
Pac-10 Unit Rankings
QB: Athlon Sports #3; Phil Steele #2
RB: Athlon Sports #7; Phil Steele #7
WR/TE: Athlon Sports #5; Phil Steele #2
OL: Athlon Sports #1; Phil Steele #1
DL: Athlon Sports #6; Phil Steele #9
LB: Athlon Sports #6; Phil Steele #2
DB: Athlon Sports #9; Phil Steele #9
ST: Phil Steele #2
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #32
Mark Schlabach: #24
Phil Steele: #34
Sporting News: #97
2010 Pre-Season Pac-10 Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #4
Phil Steele: #5 (tied with Oregon State and Washington)
2010 Bowl Prediction
Athlon Sports: Las Vegas Bowl (vs. TCU)
Phil Steele: Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (vs. Boise State)
Stanford gained the most yards on offense in the Pac-10 last year but gave up the second most. Toby Gerhart has moved on so this year they will need more help from their defense. Highly touted pro prospect Andrew Luck will lead Stanford in his second year at the helm behind a quality offensive line. Despite losing 5 games last year, Stanford did not lose a game by more than 10 points. They had back-to-back wins against Top 10 teams (Oregon and USC). And the USC game was a drubbing that sent warning signs across the Pac-10. Jim Harbaugh looks like he's here to stay at Stanford and behind him the Cardinal could become a consistent top tier Pac-10 team. We turned to Jim "Emeritus" Rutter, Co-Founder & Editor of The Bootleg, to learn more about Stanford football.
What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the team?
Strengths: Obviously, it helps to start out with QB Andrew Luck (#12), Scout.com’s 2009 National Freshman of the Year, who should be even better in 2010 with a year of playing experience under his belt. Luck will benefit greatly from the return of most of the offensive line [plus outstanding senior fullback Owen Marecic (#48)] that paved the way for NFL-bound Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart. Defensively, outside linebackers Thomas Keiser (#94), who led the team with 9.0 sacks in ’09, and Chase Thomas (#93) are solid, but they are changing positions in the transition to a 3-4 defense. KR Chris Owusu (#81) has sprinter-class speed and is a legitimate threat to score any time a team decides to kick to him. He averaged 31.5 yards per return and took three back for TDs in the first four games of the 2009 season. One can’t underestimate the dramatic impact of a superior kick-return game. Stanford finished third in the country in kickoff return average last year and had its first winning season in eight years. The other four schools in the top five in kick return average produced a combined record of 51-3! Field position is half the battle!
Weaknesses: Offensively, there are not a lot of holes, even with the departure of the amazing Gerhart and his 28 rushing TDs. Depth in the defensive front seven, which lost standout veterans Erik Lorig, Ekom Udofia, Will Powers, and Clinton Snyder, remains a legitimate concern. The young secondary, which lost a ball-hawking playmaker in veteran safety Bo McNally (#22) to graduation, needs to improve its pass coverage (Oklahoma managed an alarming 20 passing first downs in the 2009 Brut Sun Bowl using their backup quarterback), but overall, the group could experience a moderate upgrade. We simply can’t meet our ambitious team goals while ranking 98th in the FBS in pass efficiency defense and 110th in passing yards allowed. In fairness, the 2009 Stanford defense certainly played very well at times, but you can’t surrender an average of more than 400 yards per game (and a total of 23 passing touchdowns) and expect to win every week. If the 2010 spring game is any indication, new Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio, a very experienced NFL veteran, seems determined to produce dramatic improvement in 2010. One clear goal for this coming season will be to achieve a vast improvement in the Cardinal’s turnover margin (17/17). During the 2009 season, 36 FBS defenses, managed to generate at least 25 total turnovers. If you ask me, that ought to be on the whiteboard as a reasonable 2010 goal.
Looking at the schedule, who will be the first major test and why?
Not to disrespect to our opening FCS opponent Sacramento State (they are moving toward becoming FBS and conceivably could end up in the WAC), but the first true test should be Game 2 against UCLA at the Rose Bowl, a traditional conference rival with similar overall talent, although I expect Stanford’s veteran offensive line to compare favorably and make the difference in the game. The two programs cross paths a lot on the recruiting trail and many of Stanford’s players come from Southern California, so it will be seen as a statement-making opportunity by each school. As Cardinal fans will painfully recall, Stanford essentially gave away the game in Pasadena two years ago, settling for a field goal with 2:31 left and then miserably surrendering a last-minute 87-yard game-winning drive against a decidedly mediocre Bruin quarterback in Kevin Craft (Who?). “Air Cardinal” managed all of 51 net passing yards in that contest, which won’t happen again with Andrew Luck around. That dramatic and disappointing result at UCLA could well represent the most devastating loss of the Jim Harbaugh era and looking back, it cost the program a bowl appearance in 2008. Time for some good old-fashioned gridiron redemption.
What team on the schedule do you fear the most?
As our dynamic fourth-year Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has said, “We bow to no program!” The revitalized Stanford Football program has worked very hard to upgrade its talent and be the team others need to fear. Still, everyone worries about something. I guess we would dread the thought of losing to Sacramento State. Unlikely, but on any given Saturday… That would “look” pretty bad and provide an early season buzz-kill. Oregon will be a tough challenge and Autzen Stadium is certainly an exciting, if not intimidating place to play. I would say we ”respect” the Ducks more than “fear” them, but getting a win at Oregon is never a picnic. A team that should fear us? Wake Forest. We feel we were the better team last fall and our guys will be looking to prove themselves this September 18th in the highly-anticipated rematch at Stanford Stadium. That game should be well-worth the price of admission.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
I don’t know if “nobody talks about him”, but on defense, redshirt junior Thomas Keiser (#94) is a very good football player. Offensively, 6’6’ 250-pound TE/WR Coby Fleener (#82) rarely gets a mention, but he is a matchup nightmare and is solid as a brick wall (just ask former USC safety Taylor Mays). There are not many true fullbacks in college anymore, but Owen Marecic (#48) is legit. It is fun to watch him not just block, but demoralize would-be tacklers. Sure-handed, hard-working WR Ryan Whalen (#8), a former walk-on, doesn’t get much press outside of the Bay Area. Sure, he wasn’t Texas’ Jordan Shipley, but Whalen came close to producing 1,000-yards receiving on a team that primarily ran the ball!
Others deserving greater recognition include fast-rising redshirt sophomore offensive tackle Jonathan “Moose” Martin (#73) and redshirt sophomore pass-rushing specialist Chase Thomas (#93). The most tantalizing inside “buzz” has been about towering, but athletic 6’8” redshirt freshman TE Levine Toilolo (#11) and his ridiculous red-zone skills. And while he hasn’t seen the field much, redshirt sophomore Alex Debniak (#51) is a remarkably fast linebacker who runs the ball too well not to get some carries – he could be a great candidate for critical short-yardage situations as well.
Who is the best offensive player on the team?
Of the skill players, QB Andrew Luck (#12). We would not trade him for another current college quarterback. Skills, arm-strength, brains, leadership, desire – the young man is the real deal, the complete package. Of the “Bigs”, it would be hard to rank anyone above outstanding OG David DeCastro (#52).
Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?
That would probably be sophomore ILB Shayne Skov (#11), because of the strength and aggressiveness Shayne brings to the field. His enthusiasm is infectious. Still has a lot of remaining upside. The interior d-line group has a couple of formidable studs in Matt Masifilo (#98) and Sione Fua (#92). These guys are the backbone of the defense – when Masifilo was out with injury in 2009, the defense struggled, then improved noticeably when he returned. That has been our challenge on defense in recent years, not failing to have some quality players, but just not having enough veteran depth. He has a long way to go, but we might want to mention ever-intriguing junior Delano Howell (#26). If Howell, who switched to defense last year, can improve his coverage skills dramatically, one would have to include the hard-hitting sophomore safety among the difference-making defensive players. All of these guys are pretty good bets to play on Sundays.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach its full capability?
It is hard to make up for the loss of a once-in-a-generation player like Toby Gerhart (#7). We need to reload with one or both of our terrific sophomore running backs, Stepfan Taylor (#33) and Tyler Gaffney (#25). One of these two will have to carry a big part of the load for a team that will prefer to stick with its well-established, smash-mouth style-of-play. Personally, I think Taylor has the look of a 1,000-yard rusher. Gaffney, a gifted baseball player as well, is a tenacious competitor with tremendous potential as a feature back.
We are certainly hoping for a break-out season from TE Konrad Reuland (#88), but realistically, it will be nearly impossible to replace graduated TE Jim Dray (#83). The fact is, we may actually be stronger at the TE position overall with the availability of talented redshirt freshmen Zach Ertz (#86) and Levine Toilolo (#11) and the continued emergence of Coby Fleener (#82), who might well be a legitimate force in the NFL some day. However, as for having a truly complete TE that was dominant in the run game, able to catch the ball in the red-zone, and most importantly does not mark for opposing defenses whether we are running or passing, Jimmy Dray will certainly be missed.
Fifth-year senior James McGillicuddy (#74) could be the key to the overall performance of the o-line in ‘10. To get to “full capability”, it would help to find a greater number of reliable targets for Luck. We hope to see the emergence of Jamal-Rashad Patterson (#21) or Doug Baldwin (#89) as a fiery, big-play third receiver. A third-down, multi-purpose back with some wiggle would be helpful as well. Fifth-year senior CB/RS/WR Richard Sherman (#9) is a bit of a wildcard, a dynamic playmaker who needs to put it all together and have a monster final year. Personally, I would like to see #9 occasionally at WR. The Cardinal’s most interesting trump card could come from the successful design of an optimal role for versatile fifth-year senior QB/WR Alex Loukas (#15), a very skilled athlete who might allow Stanford to mix it up a bit. Yes, he may see some reps at safety, but don’t be surprised if #15 slips in at QB at some point and nearly single-handedly wins a game for us. He is, if anything, a fascinating “x-factor”.
Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year (freshman, redshirt freshman or JUCO)?
JUCO? Well, technically, Konrad Reuland briefly attended a junior college after transferring from Notre Dame, but he never played football at Saddleback. The last “JUCO player” we had transfer to Stanford, Blaine Maxfield, arrived on campus back in 1996! It just isn’t a pool from which our program, from an academic standpoint, realistically can expect to draw. Redshirt freshman CB/RB/RS Usua Amanam (#5), the 2008 MaxPreps.com Division I State Player of the Year (Calif.) and 2008 GoldenStatePreps.com Northern California Player of the Year, is a very special athlete. He was out last year with an injury, but should be 100% and ready to turn some heads wherever he ends up on the field. Of the incoming freshmen (and you never really know anything until you actually see the kids in fall camp)…well, put it this way, the Cardinal coaching staff liked incoming RB Anthony Wilkerson even better than 2009-10 Gatorade National Football Player of the Year Malcolm Jones (UCLA). He is no lock to redshirt in 2010.
In thinking about the offensive newcomer that might provide the highest impact, it might surprise some that we would suggest Jordan Williamson, an incoming freshman place-kicker from Austin, TX. There is a good chance that Williamson will see the field in 2010. He will certainly be in competition for the kick-off job. The 150-pounder was absolutely crushing the ball at Stanford’s kicker camp a year ago. If you think Nate Whitaker (#39) has a big leg (and indeed he does)....just wait until you see this skinny, but strong-legged lad from the Lone Star State.
You asked about this year, but looking out a bit longer-term, Cardinal fans should keep an eye out for incoming freshman Darren Daniel from Alabama. He had a modest recruiting profile, but he is a tremendous athlete who could emerge as the best offensive player on the team at some point. Another future star is David Yankey from Georgia, who headlines a stellar four-man class of incoming freshmen offensive linemen.
Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
This one is easy - true freshman ILB Blake Lueders, who originally had committed to Notre Dame before seeing the light. The Indiana native passes the “eyeball test” with flying colors – dude already looks like an upperclassman. Staff is pretty excited. Given the uncertainty of the current depth chart, redshirt sophomore Harold Bernard (#28) and true freshman safety Devon Carrington could get into the mix at safety. We have corners with some experience, but redshirt freshman Terrance Brown (#6) and true freshman cornerback Keanu Nelson will have a chance to impress in the fall.
What are your thoughts on adding Utah and Colorado to the Pac-10?
Hey, the current reality is that every college athletic program is desperate to generate more money. I might have preferred keeping things the way they have been for the past 32 years. If the “Pac-12” conference officials can figure out a way for us to continue to play traditional rivals USC & UCLA every year and makes sure the newcomers understand that you only get four downs in the Pac-12, I think we may end up liking it, especially if the conference gets a dedicated network deal. We have some fairly recent football history with both Utah (1989, 1995, 1996) and Colorado (1977, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1993). During basketball season, it should make for some world-class ski/hoops vacation combos. Other than the mega-money, I don’t think many alumni and fans really wanted to be in the same conference with Texas and Oklahoma, for a variety of reasons. We’d rather just meet them in the post-season.
Gut feeling on the team’s final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
Assuming the health of our starting QB, the Cardinal should be able to play with anybody. One challenge will be to adjust to four new members of the coaching staff. To me, a “successful season” would involve playing everyone tough, having a winning record in-conference, and getting to another upper-tier bowl game. Optimistically, I can see anywhere from 8-4 to 10-2 in the regular season, assuming average attrition from injuries. It is a little hard to predict how much our defense can improve in the first year of transition to a new scheme. Special teams should continue to be a major team strength. Not long after he first arrived, Jim Harbaugh boldly predicted that Stanford would be in a BCS game by 2010. Probably a bit of a stretch, but with a little luck and a lot of “Luck”, it could happen. After all, Stanford was about three very make-able plays away from being 11-1 during the 2009 regular season, losing agonizing nail-biters to Wake Forest, Arizona, and California. Motivation should not be a problem.
Make sure you visit The Bootleg as it's THE place to follow Stanford football. You can also follow them on twitter @TheBootleg.
Previous Pac-10 Previews
Arizona State Sun Devils
Oregon Ducks
USC Trojans
Washington Huskies
Next Up: Central Michigan Chippewas
2010 Previews
ACC- Boston College Eagles, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins
Big 12- Kansas State Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, USF Bulls, West Virginia Mountaineers
Big Ten- Michigan Wolverines, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Northwestern Wildcats, Purdue Boilermakers
Conference USA- Houston Cougars, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
MAC- Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets
Mountain West- Utah Utes
SEC- Auburn Tigers, Kentucky Wildcats, Mississippi Rebels, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
Sun Belt- Troy Trojans
WAC- New Mexico State Aggies
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
