Yesterday I took a look at the top uncommitted prospects left on Alabama's recruiting board. Today, I'll be giving you a couple of prospects that are currently committed elsewhere who the Crimson Tide has a legitimate shot at landing on Signing Day. Of course, turnabout is fair play, and while Bama is looking to pick someone else's pocket, others are looking to get their hand in Bama's. We'll start by taking a look at some current Tide verbals who may end up wearing something other than Crimson next season.
Tide Commits On The Move...?
Daryl Collins, Wide Receiver (Alabama)
Rivals: 3* Scout: 3*
Committed to Bama Since: 3/23/2010
The long-time commit currently finds himself on the wrong end of the Tide's numbers crunch. Bama is currently carrying way more verbal commitments than they actually have room to accept (around 10 more, to be precise) and looking to add a few more. In particular, they're a bit overstocked at the wide receiver position with 4 true WR commits and a few more guys who can play the spot but may go to defense. Of the 4 true WRs, Collins is by far the least heralded. It may sound harsh, but he's the sort of solid player with some upside that you take as insurance in case your bigger targets don't pan out. Unfortunately for Collins, Bama hit it big with nearly all of it's WR targets, namely Marvin Shinn and Danny Woodson, Jr. As of today, Bama is still willing to honor Collins' commitment but only with a greyshirt offer (meaning he won't be able to join the team on scholarship until next spring). Obviously that's not the most desirable situation for a recruit, so, with the blessing of Bama's coaching staff, Collins has recently been exploring his options with Kentucky, Louisville, and Southern Miss. Of the three, Kentucky seems to be his most likely destination, if he wants to play next season.
My Best Guess: Switching to Kentucky
LaMichael Fanning, Defensive End (Georgia)
Rivals: 4* Scout: 4*
Committed to Bama Since: 4/17/2010
Another long-time commit that's recently been taking a look around. Fanning is quite a physical specimen (6'6", 285 lbs.) with huge upside but is rumored to be a longshot to be academically eligible to enroll this fall (not surprising for a guy who's bounced around to four different high schools), and there's some scuttlebutt that the Tide wouldn't be disappointed if he committed elsewhere so they don't get a surprise in August if he were to somehow get eligible and have to conjure up a roster spot for him. Fanning spent this past weekend on an official visit to Auburn but hasn't talked to the media since, so it's unclear where he stands right now.
My Best Guess: Sticking with Bama
Isaac Luatua, Offensive Lineman (California)
Rivals: 3* Scout: 3*
Committed to Bama Since: 6/8/2010
This one is all hunch. Luatua has gone almost totally under ground since his commitment to the Tide in June. He has taken no official visits and hasn't talked to the recruiting media in months. But it sure is a long way from La Miranda, California, to Tuscaloosa. And just because it hasn't been documented in the press doesn't mean he hasn't been looking. I'm not going to call for it, but don't be surprised if he ends up signing somewhere closer to home tomorrow.
My Best Guess: Sticking with Bama
As of today, I think every other Tide commit is as solid as solid gets, and it would be a major surprise if anyone other than these 3 went elsewhere. Now we'll hit the flipside.
Rival Commits On The Market...?
Brent Calloway, Athlete (Alabama)
Rivals: 4* Scout: 4*
Currently Committed To: Auburn
I'm not going to rehash the sordid details of this one. If you need to, you can catch up here, just scroll down a bit. I think most Bama fans had written off Calloway following that whole fiasco. But apparently Nick Saban hadn't. He convinced Calloway to take an unexpected official visit to Tuscaloosa last weekend and made one last push to convince him to sign with the Tide. How successful was he? Calloway isn't talking. To anybody. And likely won't until he signs his LOI tomorrow. However, it's worth noting that at the same time Calloway was on his visit, his adoptive father was quoted in an incendiary article lambasting the way his son switched his commitment and not-so-subtly knocking the credibility of Auburn's coaches. While his father did say the ultimate decision would belong to Calloway, I think it's safe to say which choice the family supports. And you really can't underestimate that. So it would seem the late momentum is with the Tide. But the Auburn coaches are nothing if not dogged recruiters (to put it nicely) and they tend to not lose guys once they get their hooks into them.
My Best Guess: Sticking with Auburn
Robenson Therezie, Safety (Florida)
Rivals: 4* Scout: 4*
Currently Committed To: Auburn
If the rumors are to be believed, Therezie actually contacted Tide coaches and said he would be committing to Bama at the Under Armor All-American game. But then the game came and he instead announced for Auburn. He's since remained committed to the Tigers but has also kept his ears open to other overtures, and Bama has stayed on him. In fact, it could be argued the Tide has more momentum with Therezie than Auburn, despite maintaining his commitment. But like I just said, for whatever reason (coughcough), this AU staff doesn't lose guys too often.
My Best Guess: Sticking with Auburn
So for those of you keeping track, I've predicted Bama to pick up one uncommitted prospect tomorrow, lose one current commitment, and strike out on their two main committed targets for a net of...0. Watch out for Nickolas Brassel, though. And there may be a little more smoke coming from Jeoffrey Pagan than I previously gave us credit for.
I'll check back in sometime tomorrow to evaluate where we're at.
Showing posts with label Alabama Crimson Tide. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alabama Crimson Tide. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Monday, January 31, 2011
Bama Recruiting Overload: Uncommitted Hype
With less than 48 hours remaining until Signing Day, the year-long recruiting hype train is, really, just getting warmed up. The next 3 days are going to be filled with a non-stop barrage of rumors and innuendos, never letting up until every last teenager has done something silly with a baseball cap and every last LOI is faxed. And as has been the case every year since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa, Alabama is expected to be at the forefront of it all on February 2nd, for better or for worse (but mostly better). Will Bama fans be feeling triumphant when it's all said and done, as they were in 2008 and 2009 when the Tide reeled in #1 rated signing classes? Or will we be left feeling melancholic and strangely disappointed after missing out on several high-profile prospects late in the game like last year (though still finishing with a consensus Top 5 class, mind you)?
As regular readers may have picked up on by now, I'm a little bit jaded to the whole recruiting phenomenon. But don't get me wrong: I have no doubt that recruiting is the lifeblood of a college football team. It's a fact. The teams that do it the best consistently tend to be the best teams on the field in the fall. And I want Alabama to be one of those teams. I think I'm mainly just turned off to the industry of recruiting and the culture of general insanity that's grown up around it (and really exploded over the last 5 years or so). As Pat Forde said in regards to the Cam Newton situation, and I think generalizes to the broader state of the recruiting industry, we've all gotten a little too far into the sausage factory.
All that said, this here's a college football blog, and recruiting is going to be THE story in college football this week. So I'm gonna do my duty to add to the insanity by giving you the best coverage of Alabama's 2011 recruiting class that I'm capable of (which may not be much).
Much like last recruiting cycle (and likely every cycle from here on out as long as Saban is around), Bama hoarded commitments early in the process and will be spending most of the end of the cycle protecting their current commits from poachers and chasing after a select few elite prospects. This way of doing things led to somewhat of a sleepy Signing Day in 2010, but that doesn't look to be the case this year. The Tide is still a legit player for several big-time recruits capable of making an instant impact on campus. So today, I'm kicking things off with a look at the top uncommitted prospects that Alabama is still actively recruiting and has a realistic shot at signing.
Jadeveon Clowney, Defensive End (South Carolina)
Rivals: 5* Scout: 5*
The Competition: South Carolina
This guy needs no introduction. He's #1 on everybody's board, but his recruitment has essentially been a two-horse race between Bama and his home state Gamecocks since this past summer. At one point, there was even a status update on his Facebook page saying that he had chosen the Tide, but that turned out to be a false alarm. Actually, I'm still not sure what that was about. If all things were equal, I think he'd be a lock to Alabama. He projects as a prototypical Jack linebacker (pass rush specialist) in Saban's scheme. However, distance from home is a big concern for his family, particularly his mother and she seems to be the identified "decision maker" in his recruitment. She recently accompanied her son on an official visit to Tuscaloosa (her first trip to T-town), and word is Mrs. Saban worked Mama Clowney hard. But was it too little too late? No one knows since Clowney has reportedly shut down all communication in the lead up to his announced signing date of February 14th. But the Gamecocks have developed an improbably strong pull amongst in-state recruits over the past few years, and I'd have to consider them the slight betting favorite.
My Best Guess: South Carolina
Cyrus Kouandjio, Offensive Tackle (Maryland)
Rivals: 5* Scout: 5*
The Competition: Auburn, Iowa, New Mexico
If Clowney is the top guy on Bama's board, Cyrus isn't far behind. He's 6'7", 322 lbs, and has an incredibly well-developed physique for a high school OL. He looks chisled out of stone. More to the point, he looks like a 4-year starter at left tackle. His older brother, Arie, signed with the Tide last year and redshirted this past season. Needless to say, Nick Saban and his coaching staff have a long-standing relationship with the family and have to be considered the heavy favorites to land the big guy. But you shouldn't assume this is a "lay down" either. Cyrus is on the record regarding his reservations about competing against his brother for playing time (reportedly allayed by the coaching staff laying out their plans for Arie at RT or guard only) and has repeatedly declined to name a leader and has taken every one of his official visits, including back to back trips to Iowa and Auburn. Auburn is a late addition to Cyrus' Top 5 and mainly got there by virtue of Miami falling off his list after the sacking of Randy Shannon. There was some talk that Auburn would make a logical alternative to Bama if his concerns about competing with his brother won out (due to being an easier trip for his parents to visit both), but it's really difficult for me to believe Auburn could pull him from Bama after getting into the game so late. If that were to happen, I'm sorry, but something smells funny on the Plains, as usual.
My Best Guess: Alabama
Isaiah Crowell, Running Back (Georgia)
Rivals: 5* Scout: 5*
The Competition: Georgia
At one point, Crowell was the Tide's #1 running back target in this class. Maybe he still is (if so, it didn't stop Bama from taking the commitment of fellow 5* RB Dee Hart and get him enrolled this spring). Crowell's commitment has been a bit of a roller coaster. Early in the process, he was basically a lock for Bama. Georgia made some significant strides with him over the summer to make it a 50/50 race. But then the Dawgs went on that horrible losing streak early in the season and lost momentum. Since the season ended, Georgia has put an all-out blitz on Crowell, sending small armies of coaches to visit him at once and offering a scholarship to his previously no-scholarship-offer-having friend. So they worked it back to something close to 50/50 again, with maybe a slight edge to UGA. I think the tipping point for his decision was the commitment of Hart, though. You just DON'T get two backs of that caliber in the same class. Not enough carries to go around. Bama is still fighting for him, but ultimately I think this plays out like Auburn's pursuit of Marcus Lattimore after already taking Michael Dyer last year. It's one or the other, never both.
My Best Guess: Georgia
Nickolas Brassell, Wide Receiver (Mississippi)
Rivals: 4* Scout: 4*
The Competition: Ole Miss
The one-time Mississippi State commit now seems to no longer even be considering the Bulldogs. After his decommitment (what a word), it was widely assumed Brassell would quickly follow his good friend Tobias Singleton to Ole Miss, but that was not the case. Brassell kept his options open which left the door cracked for the Tide to get in as a serious player for his signature. In fact, Bama was able to score his last official visit this past weekend. And while Bama isn't exactly hurting for receivers in this class (already holding commitments from 4 pure wideouts), Saban is leaving no stone unturned as he attempts to find his next #1 receiver after the departure of Julio Jones. There is also some scuttlebutt that Saban may have talked to Brassell about making a move to defensive back (which IS a position the Tide could use a little help with in this class) on his visit. His openness to this possibility will probably go a long way towards influencing his decision. Right now, this one is too close to call.
My Best Guess: 50/50
Jeoffery Pagan, Defensive End (North Carolina)
Rivals: 4* Scout: 4*
The Competition: Georgia
Much like Brassell, Bama got serious about Pagan (one-time Florida commit turned Clemson commit turned uncommitted) late in the process. On the surface, it bodes well for Bama that Pagan decided to part ways with Clemson following his official visit in Tuscaloosa. The Tide had a tremendous amount of momentum at the time, but that was quickly derailed when Ray Drew committed to Georgia. Pagan has a good relationship with Drew, and the general consensus was that Pagan was going to end up wherever Drew did as long as it wasn't Auburn. Well, it wasn't Auburn. Bama is going to keep working on him, but it would be a major surprise if he inks anywhere other than Georgia.
My Best Guess: Georgia
So there you have it. Of the top uncommitted guys, I say we get Kouandjio, maybe Brassell, and that's it. Not a very inspiring projection for Signing Day, I know, but you have to keep in mind Alabama already has Rivals' #1 ranked recruiting class WITHOUT any of these guys. While they likely wouldn't hold onto that spot (who cares?) with strong finishes from the likes of FSU or Georgia, the fact is it's an incredibly strong class as it stands right now. It only gets better with the addition of any of these guys, not worse without them.
So that's that.
I plan to be back tomorow to look at which current Bama commitments might end up elsewhere come Signing Day and which other schools' commitments may end up in Crimson when it's all said and done.
As regular readers may have picked up on by now, I'm a little bit jaded to the whole recruiting phenomenon. But don't get me wrong: I have no doubt that recruiting is the lifeblood of a college football team. It's a fact. The teams that do it the best consistently tend to be the best teams on the field in the fall. And I want Alabama to be one of those teams. I think I'm mainly just turned off to the industry of recruiting and the culture of general insanity that's grown up around it (and really exploded over the last 5 years or so). As Pat Forde said in regards to the Cam Newton situation, and I think generalizes to the broader state of the recruiting industry, we've all gotten a little too far into the sausage factory.
All that said, this here's a college football blog, and recruiting is going to be THE story in college football this week. So I'm gonna do my duty to add to the insanity by giving you the best coverage of Alabama's 2011 recruiting class that I'm capable of (which may not be much).
Much like last recruiting cycle (and likely every cycle from here on out as long as Saban is around), Bama hoarded commitments early in the process and will be spending most of the end of the cycle protecting their current commits from poachers and chasing after a select few elite prospects. This way of doing things led to somewhat of a sleepy Signing Day in 2010, but that doesn't look to be the case this year. The Tide is still a legit player for several big-time recruits capable of making an instant impact on campus. So today, I'm kicking things off with a look at the top uncommitted prospects that Alabama is still actively recruiting and has a realistic shot at signing.
Jadeveon Clowney, Defensive End (South Carolina)
Rivals: 5* Scout: 5*
The Competition: South Carolina
This guy needs no introduction. He's #1 on everybody's board, but his recruitment has essentially been a two-horse race between Bama and his home state Gamecocks since this past summer. At one point, there was even a status update on his Facebook page saying that he had chosen the Tide, but that turned out to be a false alarm. Actually, I'm still not sure what that was about. If all things were equal, I think he'd be a lock to Alabama. He projects as a prototypical Jack linebacker (pass rush specialist) in Saban's scheme. However, distance from home is a big concern for his family, particularly his mother and she seems to be the identified "decision maker" in his recruitment. She recently accompanied her son on an official visit to Tuscaloosa (her first trip to T-town), and word is Mrs. Saban worked Mama Clowney hard. But was it too little too late? No one knows since Clowney has reportedly shut down all communication in the lead up to his announced signing date of February 14th. But the Gamecocks have developed an improbably strong pull amongst in-state recruits over the past few years, and I'd have to consider them the slight betting favorite.
My Best Guess: South Carolina
Cyrus Kouandjio, Offensive Tackle (Maryland)
Rivals: 5* Scout: 5*
The Competition: Auburn, Iowa, New Mexico
If Clowney is the top guy on Bama's board, Cyrus isn't far behind. He's 6'7", 322 lbs, and has an incredibly well-developed physique for a high school OL. He looks chisled out of stone. More to the point, he looks like a 4-year starter at left tackle. His older brother, Arie, signed with the Tide last year and redshirted this past season. Needless to say, Nick Saban and his coaching staff have a long-standing relationship with the family and have to be considered the heavy favorites to land the big guy. But you shouldn't assume this is a "lay down" either. Cyrus is on the record regarding his reservations about competing against his brother for playing time (reportedly allayed by the coaching staff laying out their plans for Arie at RT or guard only) and has repeatedly declined to name a leader and has taken every one of his official visits, including back to back trips to Iowa and Auburn. Auburn is a late addition to Cyrus' Top 5 and mainly got there by virtue of Miami falling off his list after the sacking of Randy Shannon. There was some talk that Auburn would make a logical alternative to Bama if his concerns about competing with his brother won out (due to being an easier trip for his parents to visit both), but it's really difficult for me to believe Auburn could pull him from Bama after getting into the game so late. If that were to happen, I'm sorry, but something smells funny on the Plains, as usual.
My Best Guess: Alabama
Isaiah Crowell, Running Back (Georgia)
Rivals: 5* Scout: 5*
The Competition: Georgia
At one point, Crowell was the Tide's #1 running back target in this class. Maybe he still is (if so, it didn't stop Bama from taking the commitment of fellow 5* RB Dee Hart and get him enrolled this spring). Crowell's commitment has been a bit of a roller coaster. Early in the process, he was basically a lock for Bama. Georgia made some significant strides with him over the summer to make it a 50/50 race. But then the Dawgs went on that horrible losing streak early in the season and lost momentum. Since the season ended, Georgia has put an all-out blitz on Crowell, sending small armies of coaches to visit him at once and offering a scholarship to his previously no-scholarship-offer-having friend. So they worked it back to something close to 50/50 again, with maybe a slight edge to UGA. I think the tipping point for his decision was the commitment of Hart, though. You just DON'T get two backs of that caliber in the same class. Not enough carries to go around. Bama is still fighting for him, but ultimately I think this plays out like Auburn's pursuit of Marcus Lattimore after already taking Michael Dyer last year. It's one or the other, never both.
My Best Guess: Georgia
Nickolas Brassell, Wide Receiver (Mississippi)
Rivals: 4* Scout: 4*
The Competition: Ole Miss
The one-time Mississippi State commit now seems to no longer even be considering the Bulldogs. After his decommitment (what a word), it was widely assumed Brassell would quickly follow his good friend Tobias Singleton to Ole Miss, but that was not the case. Brassell kept his options open which left the door cracked for the Tide to get in as a serious player for his signature. In fact, Bama was able to score his last official visit this past weekend. And while Bama isn't exactly hurting for receivers in this class (already holding commitments from 4 pure wideouts), Saban is leaving no stone unturned as he attempts to find his next #1 receiver after the departure of Julio Jones. There is also some scuttlebutt that Saban may have talked to Brassell about making a move to defensive back (which IS a position the Tide could use a little help with in this class) on his visit. His openness to this possibility will probably go a long way towards influencing his decision. Right now, this one is too close to call.
My Best Guess: 50/50
Jeoffery Pagan, Defensive End (North Carolina)
Rivals: 4* Scout: 4*
The Competition: Georgia
Much like Brassell, Bama got serious about Pagan (one-time Florida commit turned Clemson commit turned uncommitted) late in the process. On the surface, it bodes well for Bama that Pagan decided to part ways with Clemson following his official visit in Tuscaloosa. The Tide had a tremendous amount of momentum at the time, but that was quickly derailed when Ray Drew committed to Georgia. Pagan has a good relationship with Drew, and the general consensus was that Pagan was going to end up wherever Drew did as long as it wasn't Auburn. Well, it wasn't Auburn. Bama is going to keep working on him, but it would be a major surprise if he inks anywhere other than Georgia.
My Best Guess: Georgia
So there you have it. Of the top uncommitted guys, I say we get Kouandjio, maybe Brassell, and that's it. Not a very inspiring projection for Signing Day, I know, but you have to keep in mind Alabama already has Rivals' #1 ranked recruiting class WITHOUT any of these guys. While they likely wouldn't hold onto that spot (who cares?) with strong finishes from the likes of FSU or Georgia, the fact is it's an incredibly strong class as it stands right now. It only gets better with the addition of any of these guys, not worse without them.
So that's that.
I plan to be back tomorow to look at which current Bama commitments might end up elsewhere come Signing Day and which other schools' commitments may end up in Crimson when it's all said and done.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Alabama Bric-A-Brac is Back
Well, the offseason has thoroughly settled in on us, so it's time for the return of my completely irregular updates on what's happening with Alabama football, or just whatever I think is pertinent to talk about at any given moment. I figured now would be a good time to tie up some loose ends from the past couple of weeks as we get ready for the inevitably wild conclusion of the 2011 recruiting season that will no doubt be fueling the blog for the next week or so.
Let's get this started...
The NFL Draft: No Surprises
Last time I checked in, we speculated on which Bama juniors would be declaring for the Draft. Three were absolute no-brainers to leave school early, and they did as expected. Marcell Dareus, Julio Jones, and Mark Ingram will all be 1st round picks (probably in that order), so congrats to them. However, there was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the decisions of Dont'a Hightower, Mark Barron, Courtney Upshaw, and Marquis Maze.
Hightower announced his intentions to return to Alabama for his senior(?) season alongside Dareus, Jones, and Ingram, ending that press conference on a somewhat happy note. A week later, Barron held his own presser and also stated he would be returning to school. Neither Upshaw nor Maze made public decisions, but the deadline to declare came and went without either filing their draft papers. I was a bit taken off guard by Maze's decision, as most of the information I was getting said that his mind had been made up to turn pro for some time.
All in all, I think everyone made the right decision for their respective careers.
I'm really excited about Mark Barron coming back. Due to graduation, attrition, and suspension, the Tide began the 2010 season with only one safety with any significant playing experience (that being Barron). When the Tide begins the 2011 season, the Tide will have FOUR safeties with that experience once Robbie Green returns from his NCAA suspension. The secondary will go from being a major weakness to a major strength next season.
Another Coaching Change: Nick Saban Is Never Surprised
In yet another "blink and you'll miss it" shakeup of the coaching staff, offensive line coach Joe Pendry retired and was quickly replaced by Miami (FL) OL coach Jeff Stoutland.
Pendry actually came out of retirement to join Nick Saban on his first staff at Alabama. There was a good deal of skepticism surrouding that hire in 2007, but he ultimately silenced his critics when he forged two of the most dominating offensive lines I've ever seen in 2008 and 2009. In addition to being the OL coach, Pendry also served as what you might call an unofficial "co-offensive coordinator" during his time at Bama. It's unclear if Stoutland will serve in a similar capacity, but it's doubtful.
I'm not terribly familiar with Stoutland's work, so I don't have much of an opinion on the hire. I will say I wasn't impressed by much of anything that happened at Miami over the past few seasons, but who knows how much of that was top-down incompetence stemming from Sleepyhead Shannon himself. (I'd guess a lot.) All I know is that he was Pendry's recommendation to take over and Saban doesn't miss on hiring assistants too often.
So we'll see how it goes. He certainly has big shoes to fill, and I hear Pendry intends to remain in Tuscaloosa in some sort of "advisory role" for the team.
Army High School All-American Game Madness
With the lack of any major surprises coming in the form of Draft departures, the biggest tremors felt in the Bama fanbase came at the Army All-American game. The broadcast began with long-time Alabama commit Brent Calloway (then a 5* prospect according to Rivals) publicly decommitted from the Tide and then said he would choose a new college destination later in the game. Which he did...and it was Auburn.
So that was weird and just plain sucked. In a later interview concerning his decision, Calloway basically came out and said he had been scared off by Alabama's depth chart. A tweener athlete who played running back and linebacker in high school, Calloway projects very highly as an LB in college and not very highly at all at running back. Bama was offering him the opportunity to at least attempt to play RB first, but Calloway noted Bama's 6 scholarship RBs on the roster and didn't like his odds of getting playing time there. Bama is likewise stacked at linebacker, and, as Calloway noted, they're generally much bigger than him.
And with all that in mind, as well as the encouragement of friend and Auburn commit Jonathan Rose, Calloway elected to take his talents to Auburn, where the paths to playing time at running back and linebacker are much clearer.
You always hate to lose a great athlete like Calloway, but I have no problem with his decision. I do have an issue with the way he did it, attempting to humiliate Bama on national TV, but...you know...he's a high school kid. They do dumb things. And I have no doubt he was encouraged to do it by some of the sleazebags on the AU staff. Good luck to him.
But it wasn't all bad news!
After the Calloway business was said and done, the Tide FINALLY nailed down a public commitment from 5* RB and the Army Player of the Year, Dee Hart. Hart has wanted to be at Alabama all along but various issues have always gotten in the way, most recently Hart's desire to be an early enrollee which Bama didn't have room for. But apparently they got that ironed out, and Hart donned the crimson cap, at last. Or rather...he pulled out a Bama hat...said he was going to Bama...and then put the hat on the head of his friend, teammate, fellow 5* prospect, and long-time Bama commit Hasean Clinton-Dix.
Quite the bromance those two have.
Good Journey, BJ Scott
It's official.
And now for the mea culpa...
Okay, last summer I wrote this glowing mini-biography on him: Alabama's X-Factor: BJ Scott.
And then a funny thing or two happened on the way to his breakout game. Or two.
First and foremost, JUCO transfer Dequan Menzie, once thought lost for the season with an Achilles injury, made a miraculous recovery over the summer and earned one of Bama's 3 primary cornerback spots in fall camp. Saban doesn't sign JUCO players not to play, so it was no surprise a (mostly) healthy Menzie locked up a spot in the playing rotation.
At the same time, true freshman Demarcus Milliner had a mental breakthrough and started picking up the defensive schemes quickly. Reportedly, this was the aspect of the game that Scott struggled with the most. And Saban will ALWAYS favor the player who does a better job handling the mental aspect of his scheme. (See also: Milliner's fellow true freshman CJ Mosely leapfrogging several guys at linebacker by displaying a "Rolando-like" grasp of the defense.)
And just like that...Scott lost his starting job. By the time fall camp was over, he had even been passed over as (what I would call) the "emergency" corner by LSU-transfer Phelon Jones. He saw extremely limited playing time during the season and ultimately suffered an ankle injury that shut him down at the end. The one bright spot for Scott in 2010, and perhaps in his entire Bama career, was his garbage time interception in the Tennessee game that caused a minor earthquake of jubilation on the Tide sideline.
So, I'll just admit it...I was wrong on this one. Horribly wrong. And I'm really disappointed for BJ, who, by all accounts, is a good guy and teammate. Hopefully, he'll have a great two years at South Alabama.
Oh, and don't let anyone tell you that he was cast off to make room for new recruits. Completely unfounded. In fact, as recently as a week ago, Saban had met with Scott to try to convince him to stay. Even if he was never going to play a meaningful down at Alabama, you don't get rid of guys with his work ethic and attitude who are as popular with the team as BJ was/is.
That said, I think BJ's story serves as a cautionary tale during the Silly Season that is recruiting in January and February. He himself was once a 5* propect on his way to star at one of the most storied programs in college football...Today, he leaves having accomplished nothing individually and will finish his career on an unclassified team that didn't even EXIST when he graduated high school. The moral of the story? Chill OUT, people. I'm as interested in recruiting as the next guy, but keep stuff in perspective. These are kids, and nobody REALLY knows how they're going to turn out in 3 or 4 years time.
It's not worth freaking out over if your coveted 5* offensive tackle signs with your hated rival. (Foreshadowing?) It's definitely not worth stalking a kid's Facebook page and posting insults about him. Or whatever.
With that in mind, I'll be back some time soon to fuel that insanity with a check-up on Alabama's 2011 recruiting class! Who's coming!? Who's going!? I HAVE THE ANSWERS.
Let's get this started...
The NFL Draft: No Surprises
Last time I checked in, we speculated on which Bama juniors would be declaring for the Draft. Three were absolute no-brainers to leave school early, and they did as expected. Marcell Dareus, Julio Jones, and Mark Ingram will all be 1st round picks (probably in that order), so congrats to them. However, there was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the decisions of Dont'a Hightower, Mark Barron, Courtney Upshaw, and Marquis Maze.
Hightower announced his intentions to return to Alabama for his senior(?) season alongside Dareus, Jones, and Ingram, ending that press conference on a somewhat happy note. A week later, Barron held his own presser and also stated he would be returning to school. Neither Upshaw nor Maze made public decisions, but the deadline to declare came and went without either filing their draft papers. I was a bit taken off guard by Maze's decision, as most of the information I was getting said that his mind had been made up to turn pro for some time.
All in all, I think everyone made the right decision for their respective careers.
I'm really excited about Mark Barron coming back. Due to graduation, attrition, and suspension, the Tide began the 2010 season with only one safety with any significant playing experience (that being Barron). When the Tide begins the 2011 season, the Tide will have FOUR safeties with that experience once Robbie Green returns from his NCAA suspension. The secondary will go from being a major weakness to a major strength next season.
Another Coaching Change: Nick Saban Is Never Surprised
In yet another "blink and you'll miss it" shakeup of the coaching staff, offensive line coach Joe Pendry retired and was quickly replaced by Miami (FL) OL coach Jeff Stoutland.
Pendry actually came out of retirement to join Nick Saban on his first staff at Alabama. There was a good deal of skepticism surrouding that hire in 2007, but he ultimately silenced his critics when he forged two of the most dominating offensive lines I've ever seen in 2008 and 2009. In addition to being the OL coach, Pendry also served as what you might call an unofficial "co-offensive coordinator" during his time at Bama. It's unclear if Stoutland will serve in a similar capacity, but it's doubtful.
I'm not terribly familiar with Stoutland's work, so I don't have much of an opinion on the hire. I will say I wasn't impressed by much of anything that happened at Miami over the past few seasons, but who knows how much of that was top-down incompetence stemming from Sleepyhead Shannon himself. (I'd guess a lot.) All I know is that he was Pendry's recommendation to take over and Saban doesn't miss on hiring assistants too often.
So we'll see how it goes. He certainly has big shoes to fill, and I hear Pendry intends to remain in Tuscaloosa in some sort of "advisory role" for the team.
Army High School All-American Game Madness
With the lack of any major surprises coming in the form of Draft departures, the biggest tremors felt in the Bama fanbase came at the Army All-American game. The broadcast began with long-time Alabama commit Brent Calloway (then a 5* prospect according to Rivals) publicly decommitted from the Tide and then said he would choose a new college destination later in the game. Which he did...and it was Auburn.
So that was weird and just plain sucked. In a later interview concerning his decision, Calloway basically came out and said he had been scared off by Alabama's depth chart. A tweener athlete who played running back and linebacker in high school, Calloway projects very highly as an LB in college and not very highly at all at running back. Bama was offering him the opportunity to at least attempt to play RB first, but Calloway noted Bama's 6 scholarship RBs on the roster and didn't like his odds of getting playing time there. Bama is likewise stacked at linebacker, and, as Calloway noted, they're generally much bigger than him.
And with all that in mind, as well as the encouragement of friend and Auburn commit Jonathan Rose, Calloway elected to take his talents to Auburn, where the paths to playing time at running back and linebacker are much clearer.
You always hate to lose a great athlete like Calloway, but I have no problem with his decision. I do have an issue with the way he did it, attempting to humiliate Bama on national TV, but...you know...he's a high school kid. They do dumb things. And I have no doubt he was encouraged to do it by some of the sleazebags on the AU staff. Good luck to him.
But it wasn't all bad news!
After the Calloway business was said and done, the Tide FINALLY nailed down a public commitment from 5* RB and the Army Player of the Year, Dee Hart. Hart has wanted to be at Alabama all along but various issues have always gotten in the way, most recently Hart's desire to be an early enrollee which Bama didn't have room for. But apparently they got that ironed out, and Hart donned the crimson cap, at last. Or rather...he pulled out a Bama hat...said he was going to Bama...and then put the hat on the head of his friend, teammate, fellow 5* prospect, and long-time Bama commit Hasean Clinton-Dix.
Quite the bromance those two have.
Good Journey, BJ Scott
It's official.
And now for the mea culpa...
Okay, last summer I wrote this glowing mini-biography on him: Alabama's X-Factor: BJ Scott.
And then a funny thing or two happened on the way to his breakout game. Or two.
First and foremost, JUCO transfer Dequan Menzie, once thought lost for the season with an Achilles injury, made a miraculous recovery over the summer and earned one of Bama's 3 primary cornerback spots in fall camp. Saban doesn't sign JUCO players not to play, so it was no surprise a (mostly) healthy Menzie locked up a spot in the playing rotation.
At the same time, true freshman Demarcus Milliner had a mental breakthrough and started picking up the defensive schemes quickly. Reportedly, this was the aspect of the game that Scott struggled with the most. And Saban will ALWAYS favor the player who does a better job handling the mental aspect of his scheme. (See also: Milliner's fellow true freshman CJ Mosely leapfrogging several guys at linebacker by displaying a "Rolando-like" grasp of the defense.)
And just like that...Scott lost his starting job. By the time fall camp was over, he had even been passed over as (what I would call) the "emergency" corner by LSU-transfer Phelon Jones. He saw extremely limited playing time during the season and ultimately suffered an ankle injury that shut him down at the end. The one bright spot for Scott in 2010, and perhaps in his entire Bama career, was his garbage time interception in the Tennessee game that caused a minor earthquake of jubilation on the Tide sideline.
So, I'll just admit it...I was wrong on this one. Horribly wrong. And I'm really disappointed for BJ, who, by all accounts, is a good guy and teammate. Hopefully, he'll have a great two years at South Alabama.
Oh, and don't let anyone tell you that he was cast off to make room for new recruits. Completely unfounded. In fact, as recently as a week ago, Saban had met with Scott to try to convince him to stay. Even if he was never going to play a meaningful down at Alabama, you don't get rid of guys with his work ethic and attitude who are as popular with the team as BJ was/is.
That said, I think BJ's story serves as a cautionary tale during the Silly Season that is recruiting in January and February. He himself was once a 5* propect on his way to star at one of the most storied programs in college football...Today, he leaves having accomplished nothing individually and will finish his career on an unclassified team that didn't even EXIST when he graduated high school. The moral of the story? Chill OUT, people. I'm as interested in recruiting as the next guy, but keep stuff in perspective. These are kids, and nobody REALLY knows how they're going to turn out in 3 or 4 years time.
It's not worth freaking out over if your coveted 5* offensive tackle signs with your hated rival. (Foreshadowing?) It's definitely not worth stalking a kid's Facebook page and posting insults about him. Or whatever.
With that in mind, I'll be back some time soon to fuel that insanity with a check-up on Alabama's 2011 recruiting class! Who's coming!? Who's going!? I HAVE THE ANSWERS.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Decision Day Looming for Bama Juniors
The buzz around Tuscaloosa is that the Crimson Tide's draft-eligible juniors will be making their intentions known very soon, some possibly as early as tomorrow. With that in mind, I thought I'd take a moment to review their performance this past season, consider where they likely figure into the NFL Draft, and give you my best guess on whether they'll stay or go. And my opinion on whether they really should or not. We'll start with the easy ones...
Marcell Dareus
2010 Stats: 5 sacks, 11 tackles for a loss
Dareus went from relative anonymity to being projected as a Top 5 draft pick almost overnight following his performance in the 2010 BCS Championship game. He seemed poised to dominate in his final season, but his year was thrown off track before it even began when he fell into a scandal with an agent (you may have heard about it). He missed two games, but then suffered a high ankle sprain in his 2nd game back at Arkansas. He would struggle with that injury for the rest of the season, which lessened his ability to fight through the constant double-teams he drew. As a result, his statistical productivity fell far below expectations. However, he played his best games at the end of the year against Auburn and Michigan State, and his draft stock does not appear to have dropped significantly. Most mock drafts still have him going in the Top 5 and none have him going later than the Top 10. His freakish mix of size and athleticism is too much to pass up on.
What Should He Do? He should ABSOLUTELY enter the Draft. You can't turn your nose up at that kind of money.
What WILL He Do? He ABSOLUTELY will enter the Draft. It's been a foregone conclusion since Mel Kiper's first 2011 big board came out.
Mark Ingram
2010 Stats: 875 rushing yards, 282 receiving yards, 14 total TDs
Much like Dareus, Ingram didn't have quite the follow-up to his Heisman-winning 2009 season that had been expected. A freak knee injury the week of the Tide's season opener kept him out of 2 games. But while he looked sharp immediately upon his return, the grind of the SEC schedule clearly wore down his surgically-repaired knee. He also wasn't helped out by an offensive line that was far less dominant up the middle than the 09 unit. Nonetheless, Ingram remains far and away the top-rated running back in this year's draft. Most mocks have him projected somewhere between 11 and 19, which sounds about right for a back without elite top-end speed. He's going to fall more in the Knowshon Moreno range than the Adrian Peterson range.
What Should He Do? GO. Running backs only have so many hits in them, so you better start getting paid for them as quickly as possible. With the aforementioned lack of CJ Spiller-esque speed, it's unlikely he could improve his draft stock in his senior season. At least this year, he's certain to be the first back off the board, which will be a big check.
What WILL He Do? He's gone already. At least that's what Barry Sanders Jr. said Saban told him a few days ago.
Julio Jones
2010 Stats: 78 catches, 1133 receiving yards, 135 rushing yards, 9 total TDs
Julio bounced back from an injury-marred sophomore slump and finally fulfilled the promise he showed as a freshman. Oddly, he was at his most productive after breaking his hand on his first catch in the South Carolina game. Of all the Bama juniors, Julio did the most to help his draft stock this season. He's gone from being perceived as maybe a fringe 1st round pick to the solid #2 receiver behind AJ Green, likely getting drafted somewhere in the top 15 picks. If Justin Blackmon from Oklahoma State declares, he may push Julio for that spot based on his production this season, but Julio is a genetic freak who will dominate the workout circuit and his team-first attitude will draw raves from coaches.
What Should He Do? He should enter the draft. It's possible he could increase his productivity next year with a strong-armed new QB (McCarron OR Sims)...or his productivity could be dragged down by a strong-armed new QB. It's a crap shoot there. Meanwhile, he'll face similar competition for the #1 receiver spot from the likes of Alshon Jeffery or Blackmon in the 2012 draft. The risk/reward is just too great.
What WILL He Do? This is a closer call than you might think. Julio is an interesting cat, to say the least, and he doesn't look at things the way most big-time wide receivers do. He loves playing at Alabama and, unlike most college athletes, actually comes off as sincere when he talks about his desire to get his degree. That said, there are a lot of ways to finish your degree in 2011 that don't involve playing college football and a 1st round NFL contract will pay for it just as well as a scholarship will. Ultimately, the money will be too much.
Dont'a Hightower2010 Stats: 70 tackles, 3.5 tackles for a loss
Prior to suffering a catastrophic knee injury against Arkansas in 09, most would have guessed Hightower was a lock for the draft today. But, despite a preternaturally quick recovery that saw him back in contact drills by spring practice, Hightower struggled to regain his footing on the field this season. Beginning the season in two knee braces, he was noticeably slower and seemed to struggle taking over for Rolondo McClain at the Mike position. A move back to Will and the loss of a knee brace midway through the season seemed to help, but he was still clearly less than 100%. A completely knee-brace free Hightower appeared in the Capital One Bowl and looked faster and more violent than he had all year. As of today, his draft buzz is practically nil and he would have to do a significant amount of work in the evaluation period to get his stock back up to pre-injury levels.
What Should He Do? He should return for his senior season (or redshirt junior season, however they're classifying it this week). It's probably in his best interests to take another offseason getting his knee back to 100% so he can have a dynamite senior season and maybe crack the top 2 rounds. This year, I think the 3rd round is his ceiling, and that's no given.
What WILL He Do? I'm fairly certain he'll be back. He's a smart guy. The potential lockout may be a factor here as well. The 2nd and 3rd tier (and below...) prospects are really the only guys who's draft decisions will be affected by the threat of no season, and that's where Hightower is right now.
Mark Barron
2010 Stats: 75 tackles, 3 interceptions, 6 pass breakups, 2 sacks
Barron followed-up his breakout sophomore season with another strong year. He was slightly less productive but that was mainly due to opponents choosing to take their shots elsewhere in an inexperienced secondary. Like Julio, Barron is an incredible physical specimen who might actually play linebacker in other systems. He, too, would likely dominate the workout circuit. He was a lock to declare for the draft until about halfway through the Iron Bowl, when he tore a pectoral muscle attempting to break up a pass. His recovery time is currently thought to be 4-6 months, meaning there's no way he'll be able to show scouts much of anything prior to draft day.
What Should He Do? No question: he should stay. Prior to the injury, he was a surefire second rounder with the possibility to work his way into the 1st like Kareem Jackson did last year. Now, there's no limit to how far he could fall. He needs to stay in school, rehab his pec, and have a good, healthy senior season. He'll cost himself a lot of money entering the draft this year.
What WILL He Do? This one is tough. I think Barron knows the best thing to do, from a football perspective, is return for his senior season. However, there's also some word that his family has a tough financial situation and he's feeling obligated and/or pressured to go pro now to support them. This is too close to call right now.
Courtney Upshaw
2010 Stats: 52 tackles, 14.5 tackles for a loss, 7 sacks
Upshaw was my pick to be this season's breakout player, but, much like Dareus, a high ankle sprain suffered in the very first game of the season derailed those projections. He recovered well enough to play his best game of the season against Auburn, after which he indicated he would be returning for his senior season. And then he showed up at the Capital One Bowl and played the lights-out game of the year. Now his return is not so certain. He's currently getting post-bowl performance buzz similar to what Dareus was getting at this time last year. He has great size and athleticism, and NFL scouts are always looking for elite pass rushers.
What Should He Do? I honestly think he could go either way. Like a lot of Bama's top guys, he'll test out very well on the workout circuit and could very easily earn a 2nd round grade this year. I also think he could return for his senior season and raise his stock to the 1st round as a top pass rusher. It just depends on if he wants to take the injury risk.
What WILL He Do? My gut says he'll be with the Tide in 2011. He also may be one of those 2nd tier players who could be scared off by the lockout.
Marquis Maze
2010 Stats: 38 receptions, 557 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs, 1 passing TD
This might be a surprising name. Maze has been one of the great underrated (and some might argue, underutilized) players for the Tide over the past 3 years. He's been a very consistent player the past 2 seasons with great speed and mobility and good hands. That said, while he clearly has all the tools to be great, he has yet to actually prove himself as more than a capable supporting player. He certainly doesn't have very strong draft buzz, if any at all. And yet, the word for a while has been that Maze will declare for the draft. Why? Who knows. There is some speculation that he may have a baby on the way and needs the NFL check to support the new addition, but take that for what it's worth.
What Should He Do? Stay in school. If you're a 5'10" receiver, you better be special if you hope to get drafted. Maze hasn't shown anything like "special" yet. He needs to return next season, free from Julio's shadow, and show what he can do as the 1st option at receiver. I'm 100% sure that he will NOT be drafted this year. Maybe he'll make a team as a free agent, but I don't see how that chance is worth giving up a free college degree.
What WILL He Do? He has his mind made up. He's entering the draft. I've been hearing that he has considered this his final year since before the season started. I don't get it, but best of luck to him.
I'll be back to check upon these guys as their decisions become official.
Marcell Dareus
2010 Stats: 5 sacks, 11 tackles for a loss
Dareus went from relative anonymity to being projected as a Top 5 draft pick almost overnight following his performance in the 2010 BCS Championship game. He seemed poised to dominate in his final season, but his year was thrown off track before it even began when he fell into a scandal with an agent (you may have heard about it). He missed two games, but then suffered a high ankle sprain in his 2nd game back at Arkansas. He would struggle with that injury for the rest of the season, which lessened his ability to fight through the constant double-teams he drew. As a result, his statistical productivity fell far below expectations. However, he played his best games at the end of the year against Auburn and Michigan State, and his draft stock does not appear to have dropped significantly. Most mock drafts still have him going in the Top 5 and none have him going later than the Top 10. His freakish mix of size and athleticism is too much to pass up on.
What Should He Do? He should ABSOLUTELY enter the Draft. You can't turn your nose up at that kind of money.
What WILL He Do? He ABSOLUTELY will enter the Draft. It's been a foregone conclusion since Mel Kiper's first 2011 big board came out.
Mark Ingram
2010 Stats: 875 rushing yards, 282 receiving yards, 14 total TDs
Much like Dareus, Ingram didn't have quite the follow-up to his Heisman-winning 2009 season that had been expected. A freak knee injury the week of the Tide's season opener kept him out of 2 games. But while he looked sharp immediately upon his return, the grind of the SEC schedule clearly wore down his surgically-repaired knee. He also wasn't helped out by an offensive line that was far less dominant up the middle than the 09 unit. Nonetheless, Ingram remains far and away the top-rated running back in this year's draft. Most mocks have him projected somewhere between 11 and 19, which sounds about right for a back without elite top-end speed. He's going to fall more in the Knowshon Moreno range than the Adrian Peterson range.
What Should He Do? GO. Running backs only have so many hits in them, so you better start getting paid for them as quickly as possible. With the aforementioned lack of CJ Spiller-esque speed, it's unlikely he could improve his draft stock in his senior season. At least this year, he's certain to be the first back off the board, which will be a big check.
What WILL He Do? He's gone already. At least that's what Barry Sanders Jr. said Saban told him a few days ago.
Julio Jones
2010 Stats: 78 catches, 1133 receiving yards, 135 rushing yards, 9 total TDs
Julio bounced back from an injury-marred sophomore slump and finally fulfilled the promise he showed as a freshman. Oddly, he was at his most productive after breaking his hand on his first catch in the South Carolina game. Of all the Bama juniors, Julio did the most to help his draft stock this season. He's gone from being perceived as maybe a fringe 1st round pick to the solid #2 receiver behind AJ Green, likely getting drafted somewhere in the top 15 picks. If Justin Blackmon from Oklahoma State declares, he may push Julio for that spot based on his production this season, but Julio is a genetic freak who will dominate the workout circuit and his team-first attitude will draw raves from coaches.
What Should He Do? He should enter the draft. It's possible he could increase his productivity next year with a strong-armed new QB (McCarron OR Sims)...or his productivity could be dragged down by a strong-armed new QB. It's a crap shoot there. Meanwhile, he'll face similar competition for the #1 receiver spot from the likes of Alshon Jeffery or Blackmon in the 2012 draft. The risk/reward is just too great.
What WILL He Do? This is a closer call than you might think. Julio is an interesting cat, to say the least, and he doesn't look at things the way most big-time wide receivers do. He loves playing at Alabama and, unlike most college athletes, actually comes off as sincere when he talks about his desire to get his degree. That said, there are a lot of ways to finish your degree in 2011 that don't involve playing college football and a 1st round NFL contract will pay for it just as well as a scholarship will. Ultimately, the money will be too much.
Dont'a Hightower2010 Stats: 70 tackles, 3.5 tackles for a loss
Prior to suffering a catastrophic knee injury against Arkansas in 09, most would have guessed Hightower was a lock for the draft today. But, despite a preternaturally quick recovery that saw him back in contact drills by spring practice, Hightower struggled to regain his footing on the field this season. Beginning the season in two knee braces, he was noticeably slower and seemed to struggle taking over for Rolondo McClain at the Mike position. A move back to Will and the loss of a knee brace midway through the season seemed to help, but he was still clearly less than 100%. A completely knee-brace free Hightower appeared in the Capital One Bowl and looked faster and more violent than he had all year. As of today, his draft buzz is practically nil and he would have to do a significant amount of work in the evaluation period to get his stock back up to pre-injury levels.
What Should He Do? He should return for his senior season (or redshirt junior season, however they're classifying it this week). It's probably in his best interests to take another offseason getting his knee back to 100% so he can have a dynamite senior season and maybe crack the top 2 rounds. This year, I think the 3rd round is his ceiling, and that's no given.
What WILL He Do? I'm fairly certain he'll be back. He's a smart guy. The potential lockout may be a factor here as well. The 2nd and 3rd tier (and below...) prospects are really the only guys who's draft decisions will be affected by the threat of no season, and that's where Hightower is right now.
Mark Barron
2010 Stats: 75 tackles, 3 interceptions, 6 pass breakups, 2 sacks
Barron followed-up his breakout sophomore season with another strong year. He was slightly less productive but that was mainly due to opponents choosing to take their shots elsewhere in an inexperienced secondary. Like Julio, Barron is an incredible physical specimen who might actually play linebacker in other systems. He, too, would likely dominate the workout circuit. He was a lock to declare for the draft until about halfway through the Iron Bowl, when he tore a pectoral muscle attempting to break up a pass. His recovery time is currently thought to be 4-6 months, meaning there's no way he'll be able to show scouts much of anything prior to draft day.
What Should He Do? No question: he should stay. Prior to the injury, he was a surefire second rounder with the possibility to work his way into the 1st like Kareem Jackson did last year. Now, there's no limit to how far he could fall. He needs to stay in school, rehab his pec, and have a good, healthy senior season. He'll cost himself a lot of money entering the draft this year.
What WILL He Do? This one is tough. I think Barron knows the best thing to do, from a football perspective, is return for his senior season. However, there's also some word that his family has a tough financial situation and he's feeling obligated and/or pressured to go pro now to support them. This is too close to call right now.
Courtney Upshaw
2010 Stats: 52 tackles, 14.5 tackles for a loss, 7 sacks
Upshaw was my pick to be this season's breakout player, but, much like Dareus, a high ankle sprain suffered in the very first game of the season derailed those projections. He recovered well enough to play his best game of the season against Auburn, after which he indicated he would be returning for his senior season. And then he showed up at the Capital One Bowl and played the lights-out game of the year. Now his return is not so certain. He's currently getting post-bowl performance buzz similar to what Dareus was getting at this time last year. He has great size and athleticism, and NFL scouts are always looking for elite pass rushers.
What Should He Do? I honestly think he could go either way. Like a lot of Bama's top guys, he'll test out very well on the workout circuit and could very easily earn a 2nd round grade this year. I also think he could return for his senior season and raise his stock to the 1st round as a top pass rusher. It just depends on if he wants to take the injury risk.
What WILL He Do? My gut says he'll be with the Tide in 2011. He also may be one of those 2nd tier players who could be scared off by the lockout.
Marquis Maze
2010 Stats: 38 receptions, 557 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs, 1 passing TD
This might be a surprising name. Maze has been one of the great underrated (and some might argue, underutilized) players for the Tide over the past 3 years. He's been a very consistent player the past 2 seasons with great speed and mobility and good hands. That said, while he clearly has all the tools to be great, he has yet to actually prove himself as more than a capable supporting player. He certainly doesn't have very strong draft buzz, if any at all. And yet, the word for a while has been that Maze will declare for the draft. Why? Who knows. There is some speculation that he may have a baby on the way and needs the NFL check to support the new addition, but take that for what it's worth.
What Should He Do? Stay in school. If you're a 5'10" receiver, you better be special if you hope to get drafted. Maze hasn't shown anything like "special" yet. He needs to return next season, free from Julio's shadow, and show what he can do as the 1st option at receiver. I'm 100% sure that he will NOT be drafted this year. Maybe he'll make a team as a free agent, but I don't see how that chance is worth giving up a free college degree.
What WILL He Do? He has his mind made up. He's entering the draft. I've been hearing that he has considered this his final year since before the season started. I don't get it, but best of luck to him.
I'll be back to check upon these guys as their decisions become official.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Bama's First Coaching Change of the Offseason: Davis Out, Rumph In
There had been some rumors of potential coaching turnover on the Crimson Tide staff over the past month or two, but the first actual move was both sudden and unexpected. After weeks of speculation surrounding Kirby Smart and the defensive coordinator position at Florida (going nowhere, by the way), it was Bama defensive line coach Bo Davis who quietly boarded a plane bound for Austin, Texas, Monday morning. Initial word was that it was for an "interview," but it quickly became apparent that any interview was nothing more than a formality. Though no official announcement has been made, most credible news sources are in agreement today that Davis has accepted a job as the Longhorns' new "Defensive Tackles Coach."
And yet, almost as suddenly as news of Davis' departure for Texas began to make the rounds, one name immediately sprang up as his replacement: Clemson defensive ends coach Chris Rumph. And now, reports are that Rumph has notified Clemson that he's coming to Tuscaloosa.
So, time to answer a few questions on the change:
First, what exactly happened here?
This is just my opinion with nothing to support it except my understanding of how these things work, but this all happened a bit too quickly and bit too tidily to not have been pre-orchestrated by Nick Saban. It's actually a fairly common practice for a head coach who's not happy with the job an assistant has done, but also personally likes the assistant, to facilitate a move elsewhere instead of straight-up firing him. Saban did the same thing for Major Applewhite after the disasterous 2007 season. I mean, this is a lateral move for Davis at best (it could even be looked at as somewhat of a demotion considering he's going from being "defensive line" coach to "defensive tackles" coach), and I highly doubt he's getting a significant pay raise for it, as he was already well paid for his role at Alabama. And he has no real ties to Texas that I'm aware of. The move doesn't make a lot of sense for Davis.
On the other hand, Saban openly expressed his disappointment and frustration with the defense's lack of success in generating sacks and tackles for a loss in the lead up to the bowl game (as have I, all season long here), and that obviously starts with the defensive line. It was evident in his statements that the injuries to key players like Marcell Dareus were not an adequate excuse for the lack of production. The motivation was clearly there for Saban to make a move. The fact that Rumph was seemingly waiting in the wings the moment Davis to Texas was a done deal definitely leads creedance to the theory of intelligent design at play in this situation.
Next, what does this mean for Bama going forward? Is this an upgrade or a downgrade?
I'll start by giving Davis his due. He's a solid recruiter, and he did a very nice job of molding some lesser talents into a solid DL unit in his first few seasons at Alabama. And, yes, he has to get credit for helping refine Dareus into the quarterback killdozer he is when healthy (though MD really stepped onto campus a full-grown man ready to play). However, if we're being honest, his 2010 DL unit was a bit of a mess, despite having more talent than nearly any other line in the nation. On paper, they were a strong unit (#9 rush defense), but when you actually watched the games, their play was maddening. Endless big plays were left on the field. Numerous tackles for a loss (#65 nationally) and sacks (#54) were missed due to poor tackling, and opposing offense were frequently bailed out with timely offsides penalties. To put it bluntly...In a season of disappointments, the defensive line was perhaps the biggest.
Conversely, Clemson's defensive line enjoyed an incredibly productive season under the guidance of Rumph (and defensive tackle coach Dan Brooks), highlighted by the emergence of stud DE Da'Quan Bowers, who lead the nation in sacks, finished #2 in tackles for a loss, and collected numerous awards and honors. As a unit, his line finished 5th in rushing TDs allowed, always a stat of great importance to Saban. Rumph also has a very strong reputation as a recruiter. In fact, the consensus #1 recruit in the nation, Jadeveon Clowney, has gone on the record saying his relationship with Rumph was the only reason he was going to take an official visit to Clemson.
Oh, by the way, his recruitment is currently seen as a two team race between South Carolina and...Alabama. Think this might help?
So, yeah, I think this looks like a very positive move right now.
Finally, is this the end or just the beginning of Bama's staff changes?
The beginning. I don't think we'll see too many more changes this offseason, but there will be at least one more. I really think offensive coordinator Jim McElwain will be on the move before too long. I think McElwain to Texas rumors have a lot of substance to them.
And yet, almost as suddenly as news of Davis' departure for Texas began to make the rounds, one name immediately sprang up as his replacement: Clemson defensive ends coach Chris Rumph. And now, reports are that Rumph has notified Clemson that he's coming to Tuscaloosa.
So, time to answer a few questions on the change:
First, what exactly happened here?
This is just my opinion with nothing to support it except my understanding of how these things work, but this all happened a bit too quickly and bit too tidily to not have been pre-orchestrated by Nick Saban. It's actually a fairly common practice for a head coach who's not happy with the job an assistant has done, but also personally likes the assistant, to facilitate a move elsewhere instead of straight-up firing him. Saban did the same thing for Major Applewhite after the disasterous 2007 season. I mean, this is a lateral move for Davis at best (it could even be looked at as somewhat of a demotion considering he's going from being "defensive line" coach to "defensive tackles" coach), and I highly doubt he's getting a significant pay raise for it, as he was already well paid for his role at Alabama. And he has no real ties to Texas that I'm aware of. The move doesn't make a lot of sense for Davis.
On the other hand, Saban openly expressed his disappointment and frustration with the defense's lack of success in generating sacks and tackles for a loss in the lead up to the bowl game (as have I, all season long here), and that obviously starts with the defensive line. It was evident in his statements that the injuries to key players like Marcell Dareus were not an adequate excuse for the lack of production. The motivation was clearly there for Saban to make a move. The fact that Rumph was seemingly waiting in the wings the moment Davis to Texas was a done deal definitely leads creedance to the theory of intelligent design at play in this situation.
Next, what does this mean for Bama going forward? Is this an upgrade or a downgrade?
I'll start by giving Davis his due. He's a solid recruiter, and he did a very nice job of molding some lesser talents into a solid DL unit in his first few seasons at Alabama. And, yes, he has to get credit for helping refine Dareus into the quarterback killdozer he is when healthy (though MD really stepped onto campus a full-grown man ready to play). However, if we're being honest, his 2010 DL unit was a bit of a mess, despite having more talent than nearly any other line in the nation. On paper, they were a strong unit (#9 rush defense), but when you actually watched the games, their play was maddening. Endless big plays were left on the field. Numerous tackles for a loss (#65 nationally) and sacks (#54) were missed due to poor tackling, and opposing offense were frequently bailed out with timely offsides penalties. To put it bluntly...In a season of disappointments, the defensive line was perhaps the biggest.
Conversely, Clemson's defensive line enjoyed an incredibly productive season under the guidance of Rumph (and defensive tackle coach Dan Brooks), highlighted by the emergence of stud DE Da'Quan Bowers, who lead the nation in sacks, finished #2 in tackles for a loss, and collected numerous awards and honors. As a unit, his line finished 5th in rushing TDs allowed, always a stat of great importance to Saban. Rumph also has a very strong reputation as a recruiter. In fact, the consensus #1 recruit in the nation, Jadeveon Clowney, has gone on the record saying his relationship with Rumph was the only reason he was going to take an official visit to Clemson.
Oh, by the way, his recruitment is currently seen as a two team race between South Carolina and...Alabama. Think this might help?
So, yeah, I think this looks like a very positive move right now.
Finally, is this the end or just the beginning of Bama's staff changes?
The beginning. I don't think we'll see too many more changes this offseason, but there will be at least one more. I really think offensive coordinator Jim McElwain will be on the move before too long. I think McElwain to Texas rumors have a lot of substance to them.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Bowl Predictions Part 3 (12/31-1/1)
In case you missed the first and second rounds of bowl predictions just click on the links to catch up on what you missed. As of the printing of this blog we have had 14 bowl games and both Ross and I are 8-6.
Meineke Car Care (12/31 Noon on ESPN)
South Florida (7-5) vs. Clemson (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: SOUTH FLORIDA 24 CLEMSON 21
This is one that I am really struggling with. Both come in with pretty good defenses but under-performing offenses. I think this one with be decided by a key turnover or by who has the ball last. Both teams are exactly the same with turnover margin at a deficit of .25 per game. But USF seems to be getting better in terms of turnovers while Clemson has not won the turnover battle in a game since they beat Georgia Tech way back in late October.
Ross's Prediction: CLEMSON 27, SOUTH FLORIDA 14
Meineke Car Care (12/31 Noon on ESPN)
South Florida (7-5) vs. Clemson (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: SOUTH FLORIDA 24 CLEMSON 21
This is one that I am really struggling with. Both come in with pretty good defenses but under-performing offenses. I think this one with be decided by a key turnover or by who has the ball last. Both teams are exactly the same with turnover margin at a deficit of .25 per game. But USF seems to be getting better in terms of turnovers while Clemson has not won the turnover battle in a game since they beat Georgia Tech way back in late October.
Ross's Prediction: CLEMSON 27, SOUTH FLORIDA 14
Clemson has more talent, but South Florida probably has better coaching. Both of these teams kind of stink, but give me ACC stink over Big East stink any day of the week.
HYUNDAI SUN BOWL (12/31 2pm on CBS)
Notre Dame (7-5) vs. Miami (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: NOTRE DAME 28 MIAMI 21
Miami is one of the most talented teams in College Football. But will they be focused and ready to play? They are coming off of two consecutive defeats and have lost 3 of their last 5 that include a loss to Virginia. On the flip side Notre Dame is coming into the bowl on a 3 game winning streak that includes victories over 2 bowl teams and USC. I like how the Golden Domers are trending and while I could see Miami winning this game by 3 TDs on talent alone I am siding with Notre Dame.
Ross's Prediction: NOTRE DAME 24, MIAMI 20
This is a fun match-up, although it's also a reminder of the fact that these two storied programs are just a pale shadow of their late '80s heyday. The ND and Miami teams from that era would smoke these squads by 40+. Miami has better talent (Randy Shannon did manage to get some pretty solid talent to Miami, despite his other flaws), but Brian Kelly certainly gives the Irish a pretty big edge in the coaching department. As is so often the case, these bowls usually come down to who wants it more and ND has the definite edge there: they have something to prove, while Miami is a coach-less squad playing in a minor bowl in El Paso. Motivation trumps athletes this time.
Autozone Liberty Bowl (12/31 3:30 on ESPN)
Georgia (6-6) vs. UCF (10-3)
Kevin's Prediction: GEORGIA 41 UCF 24
Let's be honest with ourselves for a minute. Central Florida's 10-3 record is a product of their schedule. Their biggest wins are against SMU (7-6) and East Carolina (6-7). Whenever UCF has faced someone better this year they have lost (Southern Miss 31-21, Kansas State 17-13 and NC State 28-21). Georgia on the other hand has a 6-6 record because of who they have played (4 losses to Top 25 teams including 2 BCS schools and a school that played in the SEC Championship game) and some untimely errors. Central Florida can definitely make this competitive and I look for Jeffrey Godfrey to have a decent day but I think Georgia has something to prove. This will be A.J. Green's last game and I don't see anybody on the UCF sideline that can match-up with him. Georgia has won 5 of 7 with those losses being an OT loss to Florida and a loss to #1 Auburn. I think Georgia rolls much like they did in their bowl game last year (under similar circumstances) against Texas A&M)
Ross's Prediction: GEORGIA 34, CENTRAL FLORIDA 21
By my count, Georgia now has the longest active bowl game winning streak after Boise State ended Utah's nine-game winning streak earlier this bowl season. Georgia's won their last four bowl games; Mark Richt may be having some issues winning regular season games in recent years, but he's maintained his mastery of bowl games (he's 7-2 in bowl games at Georgia). Georgia was also playing much better at the end of the season, winning five of their last seven and putting up spirited efforts in their losses to Florida and Auburn. Central Florida isn't just a mid-major punching bag and they have a pretty stout defense (12th best scoring defense in the nation). But Georgia has too much talent and is too well-coached.
Chick-fil-A Bowl (12/31 7:30pm on ESPN)
South Carolina (9-4) vs. Florida State (9-4)
Kevin's Prediction: SOUTH CAROLINA 31 FSU 27
The Chick-fil-A Bowl is perennially one of the best bowl games. Despite blow outs in the last 2 games you can look back to 2007 (Auburn over Clemson in OT) and 2006 (Georgia over VT 31-24) as examples. Let's not kid ourselves everyone in the south loves an ACC vs SEC match-up and this one is pretty intriguing. I think Carolina is out to prove something after just getting absolutely embarrassed against Cam Newton and the Auburn Tigers. Alshon Jeffrey and Marcus Lattimore are just going to be too much for FSU on this day but I think it will be a good close game.
Ross's Prediction: FLORIDA ST 35, SOUTH CAROLINA 24
Again, the issue of motivation rears its ugly head here. South Carolina just made a trip to the ATL less than a month ago with dreams of an SEC Championship and a Sugar Bowl trip dancing in their heads -- only to get their heads served to them on a platter by Cam Newton. And now they're supposed to be excited about going back to Atlanta for a New Year's Eve bash with Florida State in a bowl named after tasty chicken sandwiches? Yeah, not seeing it -- especially when you factor in their no-show performances in their last two bowl games (a 31-10 beatdown to Iowa in the 2009 Outback Bowl and a 20-7 thumping to UConn in the 2010 Papajohns.com Bowl). Meanwhile, Florida State has a chance to end a solid season on a high note and Christian Ponder will probably want to put on a show for NFL scouts, too.
TicketCity Bowl (1/1 Noon on ESPNU)
Northwestern (7-5) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: TEXAS TECH 35 NORTHWESTERN 24
Raise your hand if you've never heard of this bowl. I'm guilty. Texas Tech just lost it's defense coordinator and now they have to try and stop Dan Persa? No thank you. Oh wait...Dan Persa is in a cast until spring. Hmmmm....Texas Tech it is. But I don't like it.
Ross's Prediction: TEXAS TECH 35, NORTHWESTERN 17
If Northwestern had all-everything QB Dan Persa, this game is at least a toss-up, if not a definite edge to Northwestern. But without the QB who was the heart and soul of their offense -- and the source of roughly 90% of its production -- it's hard to give them a fair shot here, even against a pretty mediocre Tech squad. The NW offense looked completely toothless in their last two games this year and the defense isn't strong enough to make up for that lack of production.
OUTBACK BOWL (1/1 1pm on ABC)
Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: FLORIDA 28 PENN STATE 17
There is just no way that I can pick against Urban Cryer and the Florida Gators in his last game. I think Florida gets geeked up for this game Penn State has not performed in big games this year (their losses are to Bama, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan State) with their most impressive victories coming against Michigan and Northwestern. Florida has lost 2 out of their last 3 but I think they win this one for Urban.
Ross's Prediction: PENN STATE 23, FLORIDA 21
If you believe the rumors about JoePa, this could be a farewell game for BOTH coaches; at the very least, it's definitely Urban Meyer's swan song to the Florida program that he turned into one of the best of the 2000s. Unfortunately, with all the turmoil that's surrounded that program lately and the fact that their offense was a complete non-entity for most of the season, it's hard to have much faith in them, even with some "win one for Urb" motivation going on. Penn State is consistently a very good bowl team and they spent the season getting better, especially on offense where a mid-season switch to Matt McGloin at QB broke them out of their slumber. The defense struggled at times, but should be pretty healthy here. I think they win on a close one with a late field goal.
Capital One Bowl (1/1 1pm on ESPN)
Alabama (9-3) vs. Michigan State (11-1)
Kevin's Prediction: ALABAMA 31 MICHIGAN STATE 17
In 2008 Nick Saban and his staff learned a lesson in the Sugar Bowl from Utah. I can't see Bama coming into this game unprepared. As great as a season that Michigan State had they really didn't beat anybody outside of Wisconsin (which is a great win but seems like it was before Wisconsin really turned the corner this year). As much as I hate to say it I can't go against Saban and his coaching staff or his talent in this one. Tide Rolls.
Ross's Prediction: ALABAMA 34, MICHIGAN STATE 17
Michigan State was a classic overachiever program this year -- they took advantage of some lucky breaks and mounted impressive comebacks (against Notre Dame, Northwestern, Purdue, for instance) -- but they also got blasted by Iowa and struggled against inferior competition pretty frequently (Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State) and had an advantageous schedule (no Ohio State). There's also the question of how excited they'll be to play in this game, considering they went 11-1 and got aced out of a BCS bowl appearance. On the other hand, motivation could be an issue for Alabama, too -- will they be excited to play in this game after suffering a stunning defeat to Auburn in their last game and playing in the national title game last year? Ultimately, I think Saban does get them motivated here -- and their massive talent advantage proves to be the difference.
Progressive Gator Bowl (1/1 1:30 pm on ESPN2)
Mississippi State (8-4) vs. Michigan (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: MISSISSIPPI STATE 31 MICHIGAN 24
There might not be a coach in all of College Football that I am more impressed with than Dan Mullen. Imagine what they could be doing right now if they won the Cam Newton $weepstakes (I kid!). Dan Mullen led his team to wins over both Florida and Georgia this year (even though they were both down that is impressive) and continued his dominance over the "team from the North" Ole Miss (well as dominant as you can be being 2-0 against a rival). Michigan has a chance in this one but I just can't pick them with their defense. I think Miss State grounds this one out.
Ross's Prediction: MISSISSIPPI STATE 38, MICHIGAN 35
Ross's Prediction: WISCONSIN 35, TCU 31
On one hand, Michigan has a healthy Denard Robinson and one of the nation's most fearsome offenses. On the other hand, they have one of the nation's least fearsome defenses and an embattled coach dealing with a lot of talk about his job status. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has a coach who's the toast of the town (Dan Mullen) and a solid defense. Their offense has been anemic at times, but the Michigan defense could be just what the doctor ordered for a weak offense. This one smells like a shootout (like, oh, pretty much all of Michigan's games this year), but I think Mississippi State has enough defense to get a key stop at the end of the game.
Rose Bowl (1/1 5pm on ESPN)
Wisconsin (11-1) vs. TCU (12-0)
Kevin's Prediction: WISCONSIN 31 TCU 23
Now this is one to watch. I like what TCU has done this year under Gary Patterson (and in the previous years for that matter) but Wisconsin is on a roll. TCU has not played a team the caliber or with the strength of Wisconsin this year. Both teams average 43 points per game but allow under 21 per game. I think Wisconsin will just be too much for the Horned Frogs. Welcome to Big Boy football TCU, are you up for the challenge?
Ross's Prediction: WISCONSIN 35, TCU 31
Really hard game to call. TCU has one of the nation's best defenses -- but they also haven't had to deal with an offense like Wisconsin's, either. Wisconsin started the year slowly, but by season's end they'd turned into an old-school juggernaut with a massive offensive line paving the way for three very good running backs, allowing them to just steamroll their opponents into dust. TCU has a great run defense, but they haven't faced a rushing offense like the Badgers. Fortunately, they also have a very good (and underrated) offense -- and you can score on the Badgers. I think this game turns into a bit of a shootout and Wisconsin's beastly ground game is good enough to put it over the top. Should be a hell of a game, though.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (1/1 8:30pm on ESPN)
Connecticut (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (11-2)
Kevin's Prediction: OKLAHOMA 37 UCONN 24
On paper this is one of the biggest mismatches of bowl season. UConn went 8-4 with losses to Michigan, Temple, Rutgers and Louisville. UConn's most impressive victory this year was an overtime victory over West Virginia (who just got rolled by NC State 23 to 7). Unless Oklahoma has a monumental letdown I can't see them losing this game. Oklahoma has had a couple of mis-haps this year (A&M and Missouri) but they have just beaten 4 straight bowl teams including must win games over Okie State and Nebraska to win their Conference Title.
Ross's Prediction: OKLAHOMA 38, UCONN 21
Is UConn the worst BCS team ever? Maybe not -- the 2007 Hawaii team and the 2004 Pittsburgh teams that made BCS bowls were pretty underwhelming outfits -- but not many BCS teams have gotten spanked by teams like Temple and Louisville in the same year, either. And that's even without factoring in the whole "just happy to be here" factor for a team making their first-ever trip to a big-time bowl game. Oklahoma's had their problems in BCS games over the last few years... but they really shouldn't struggle much here. They have a massive talent advantage almost everywhere on the field and Bob Stoops has ample experience in games like this.
Is UConn the worst BCS team ever? Maybe not -- the 2007 Hawaii team and the 2004 Pittsburgh teams that made BCS bowls were pretty underwhelming outfits -- but not many BCS teams have gotten spanked by teams like Temple and Louisville in the same year, either. And that's even without factoring in the whole "just happy to be here" factor for a team making their first-ever trip to a big-time bowl game. Oklahoma's had their problems in BCS games over the last few years... but they really shouldn't struggle much here. They have a massive talent advantage almost everywhere on the field and Bob Stoops has ample experience in games like this.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
In Perspective: Iron Bowl 2010
Let's get this out there right away: Losing this game sucked. It wasn't entirely unexpected (as you might recall, I called it a 31-27 Auburn win...pretty close), but it was still an absolutely miserable experience. And I'm guessing it'll remain that way right up until Auburn wins the BCS Championship (because they will) and beyond.
Now, I'm not about to assume the role of a 2009 Auburn fan and try to spin a "moral victory" out of what happened in the Iron Bowl, okay? But let's put this in perspective. Bama had them beat and let them off the hook. Minus two egregious pass plays that resulted in TDs, the defense played it's game of the year. They did everything I thought they needed to do to win: they forced Auburn into 3rd and long situations, the linemen kept Newton in front of them and then finished tackles, they expertly defended the middle of the field against play action passes, even the defensive backs (most of whom I called out by name prior to the game) did a mostly amazing job covering their assignments and offering run support. The first half was a master class in defending Gus Malzahn's offense. The second half wasn't quite so strong, but still should have been good enough to win. Like I said in Unsolicited Advice, there's not shutting Auburn down, you just have to slow them down enough to let your offense win it.
And for a quarter and a half, the Tide offense did it's part. Jim McElwain called about half a game that put his 2009 SEC Championship masterpiece to shame. He got the ball to Julio Jones early and often to devastating effect, and utilized smart scheming to minimize Nick Fairley's impact on the game.
But then the guy who never fumbles fumbled, and the football improbably rocketed 20 yards straight down the sideline, mere inches from the boundary, into the endzone.
Not long after, Fairley whipped redshirt freshman Anthony Steen (starting his first SEC game in place of injured Freshman All-American right guard Barrett Jones) and stripped Greg McElroy of the ball. In another surreal moment, the shellshocked Steen stood motionless over his quarterback as the ball skittered around his feet, realizing too late that it was a live ball. Fairley recovered.
Both plays were equal parts great plays by Auburn and outright bizarre occurrences that, had the ball bounced another way, as the saying goes, should have, at minimum, resulted in two field goal attempts for Alabama. And even if the young Tide kickers made just one of those two...they would have represented the winning points.
But this is still just the first half we're talking about. The Bama offense had 30 minutes worth of opportunity to finish the job after half time. However, in the second half, the offense, which had been so dynamic and unpredictable early, crawled back into it's shell and could only muster 3 points the rest of the way. They tried to play it safe and let the offensive line grind out the victory, but as suspected going in, the interior line was not man enough to play straight up against the Fairley-led Auburn line. This was definitely not 2009's OL.
As if things weren't going badly enough, Bama's best opportunity to retake the lead late in the game was without two of it's top receivers due to injuries. And then McElroy was knocked out of the game with a concussion. The defense managed to secure one more offensive possession, but at that point, circumstances had thrust a redshirt freshman with minimal playing experience into the untenable position of leading a last-second scoring drive. It was destined to fail.
In the end, that's kind of how the whole game felt: like destiny. Auburn was just destined to carry on it's national title chase. Sure, scheme and execution had a lot to do with it, and Auburn having two world class players did, too. But you can't hep but look back at the two bizarre fumbles and all the key late injuries and think, "It was just GOING to happen." And you have to come to terms with it.
Sometimes you're just on the other end of Cody's Hand.
But, again, not to make this a MORAL VICTORY~!!! situation, but think of it this way: Auburn came to Bryant-Denny with one of it's best teams ever, maybe it's best player ever, and played what, in no uncertain terms, was a rebuilding Tide team. Despite that, it took two freakish plays and a rash of injuries to key personnel for Auburn to escape with a 1-point victory. Not taking anything away from Auburn: they earned the win, they deserved to win. But they got a lot of help along the way, too.
Don't take this game as an indication that Auburn is on it's way up and Bama is on it's way down. Quite the opposite. This is as high as Auburn is going to be for a long time. And 9-3 is about as low as Bama is going to be for a good, long while, too. And it was a 1-point game. The future is bright for the Tide, and I'm really excited about the 2011 team.
In fact, I'll be back in the coming weeks to review the 2010 season as a whole and figure out what went right, what went wrong, and what it means moving forward, specifically next season (spoiler: it's positive.)
Now, I'm not about to assume the role of a 2009 Auburn fan and try to spin a "moral victory" out of what happened in the Iron Bowl, okay? But let's put this in perspective. Bama had them beat and let them off the hook. Minus two egregious pass plays that resulted in TDs, the defense played it's game of the year. They did everything I thought they needed to do to win: they forced Auburn into 3rd and long situations, the linemen kept Newton in front of them and then finished tackles, they expertly defended the middle of the field against play action passes, even the defensive backs (most of whom I called out by name prior to the game) did a mostly amazing job covering their assignments and offering run support. The first half was a master class in defending Gus Malzahn's offense. The second half wasn't quite so strong, but still should have been good enough to win. Like I said in Unsolicited Advice, there's not shutting Auburn down, you just have to slow them down enough to let your offense win it.
And for a quarter and a half, the Tide offense did it's part. Jim McElwain called about half a game that put his 2009 SEC Championship masterpiece to shame. He got the ball to Julio Jones early and often to devastating effect, and utilized smart scheming to minimize Nick Fairley's impact on the game.
But then the guy who never fumbles fumbled, and the football improbably rocketed 20 yards straight down the sideline, mere inches from the boundary, into the endzone.
Not long after, Fairley whipped redshirt freshman Anthony Steen (starting his first SEC game in place of injured Freshman All-American right guard Barrett Jones) and stripped Greg McElroy of the ball. In another surreal moment, the shellshocked Steen stood motionless over his quarterback as the ball skittered around his feet, realizing too late that it was a live ball. Fairley recovered.
Both plays were equal parts great plays by Auburn and outright bizarre occurrences that, had the ball bounced another way, as the saying goes, should have, at minimum, resulted in two field goal attempts for Alabama. And even if the young Tide kickers made just one of those two...they would have represented the winning points.
But this is still just the first half we're talking about. The Bama offense had 30 minutes worth of opportunity to finish the job after half time. However, in the second half, the offense, which had been so dynamic and unpredictable early, crawled back into it's shell and could only muster 3 points the rest of the way. They tried to play it safe and let the offensive line grind out the victory, but as suspected going in, the interior line was not man enough to play straight up against the Fairley-led Auburn line. This was definitely not 2009's OL.
As if things weren't going badly enough, Bama's best opportunity to retake the lead late in the game was without two of it's top receivers due to injuries. And then McElroy was knocked out of the game with a concussion. The defense managed to secure one more offensive possession, but at that point, circumstances had thrust a redshirt freshman with minimal playing experience into the untenable position of leading a last-second scoring drive. It was destined to fail.
In the end, that's kind of how the whole game felt: like destiny. Auburn was just destined to carry on it's national title chase. Sure, scheme and execution had a lot to do with it, and Auburn having two world class players did, too. But you can't hep but look back at the two bizarre fumbles and all the key late injuries and think, "It was just GOING to happen." And you have to come to terms with it.
Sometimes you're just on the other end of Cody's Hand.
But, again, not to make this a MORAL VICTORY~!!! situation, but think of it this way: Auburn came to Bryant-Denny with one of it's best teams ever, maybe it's best player ever, and played what, in no uncertain terms, was a rebuilding Tide team. Despite that, it took two freakish plays and a rash of injuries to key personnel for Auburn to escape with a 1-point victory. Not taking anything away from Auburn: they earned the win, they deserved to win. But they got a lot of help along the way, too.
Don't take this game as an indication that Auburn is on it's way up and Bama is on it's way down. Quite the opposite. This is as high as Auburn is going to be for a long time. And 9-3 is about as low as Bama is going to be for a good, long while, too. And it was a 1-point game. The future is bright for the Tide, and I'm really excited about the 2011 team.
In fact, I'll be back in the coming weeks to review the 2010 season as a whole and figure out what went right, what went wrong, and what it means moving forward, specifically next season (spoiler: it's positive.)
Friday, November 26, 2010
Iron Bowl 2010: And The Winner Is...
...Auburn.
Sorry, guys.
It'll be close, all of Auburn's games against good teams have been. And being at home, I think we'll see a better effort from the Bama defense than we saw in road losses to South Carolina and LSU. They are clearly a much different unit at home. But despite posting strong scoring defense numbers in Bryant-Denny (only 2 TDs allowed on defense), they have been far from dominant and haven't played any offense as lethal as Auburn's with Cam Newton. And when you watch the tape, all the things Bama does poorly on defense (tackling, playing assingment sound, containing the edge) are exactly the areas that Auburn typically exploits for huge numbers.
If we were talking about the 2009 defense taking the field today, I'd take Bama in a heartbeat. But this year's D just isn't ready yet, and the offense hasn't proved consistent enough to make up the difference.
Auburn 31, Alabama 27
Sorry, guys.
It'll be close, all of Auburn's games against good teams have been. And being at home, I think we'll see a better effort from the Bama defense than we saw in road losses to South Carolina and LSU. They are clearly a much different unit at home. But despite posting strong scoring defense numbers in Bryant-Denny (only 2 TDs allowed on defense), they have been far from dominant and haven't played any offense as lethal as Auburn's with Cam Newton. And when you watch the tape, all the things Bama does poorly on defense (tackling, playing assingment sound, containing the edge) are exactly the areas that Auburn typically exploits for huge numbers.
If we were talking about the 2009 defense taking the field today, I'd take Bama in a heartbeat. But this year's D just isn't ready yet, and the offense hasn't proved consistent enough to make up the difference.
Auburn 31, Alabama 27
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Iron Bowl 2010: Unsolicited Advice for the Crimson Tide OFFENSE
Part two of our look ahead to the Iron Bowl will be considerably shorter than yesterday's installment focused on the offense. As potent as the Auburn offense has been, their defense has been almost equally as inept. The Tigers currently rank #50 in the nation in total defense and a dumbfounding #100 in pass defense. They do boast respectable numbers against the run (#11), but those stats are a little skewed due to the secondary being easy picking and many of Auburn's games turning into shootouts.
Much like the offense, the Auburn D is powered by one spectacular player, defensive tackle Nick Fairley. If something good happens for their defense, Fairley is usually the catalyst. His combination of power, quickness, and technique has generated 7.5 sacks, and he currently sits in the top 10 in tackles for a loss (18). I wasn't able to find a metric for the number of times he's blown up a play without getting tackle credit, but, trust me, it's happened a ton. (Again, I'm resisting the urge to make snide remarks about his penchant for putting questionable hits on the QB. 'Cause I'm classy like that. But, for real, he's dirty.) Most of Bama's focus in this game will have to be on reducing his impact. If they can keep him from busting up plays from the snap, the Tide should be successful attacking this D.
So here's some thoughts on how they might go about all that...
The interior Offensive Line needs to man up. On the offensive side of things, this has been my biggest disappointment of the year. The OL has unexpectedly lost the ability to dominate a game the way the 08 and 09 units did, and it's short-circuited what was supposed to be the strength of this year's offense: the two-head monster of Ingram and Richardson. Part of their struggles could be attributed to injuries (as of this writing, it's still unclear if All-SEC guard Barrett Jones will play on Friday), and part of it could be the result of all these teams with bye weeks coming up with special schemes to stop the run...But, if anything, the 2010 Tide offense is FAR less one-dimensional than the 09 squad and especially the 08 offense. Yet those lines rarely failed to assert their control over loaded boxes. These guys have just lost that will to dominate. I don't know if they don't have the right mix of guys or what, but there's really no excuse for how badly they were whipped by Drake Nevis at LSU. They even let GEORGIA STATE win the battle inside at the goalline and forced Ingram to run wide to score last week. That's embarrassing. And wouldn't you know it...the weakness of this offense is going to be matched up against the best Auburn has to offer in Fairley. If this OL can't find it within themselves to muster one solid 2009-caliber effort, it's going to be a "Honk if you sacked McElroy" kind of game. If they do, well, then you've got a ball game.
Jim McElwain is going to have to call another 09 SEC Championship Game. With the deficiencies at the point of attack duly noted, it's going to take another gem from McElwain if Bama is going to be successful. He's going to have to keep Auburn guessing all day like he kept the Gators guessing last season. This can't be a game where they run Ingram up the middle into the teeth of the defense for a quarter or two, and do nothing, before deciding to cut it loose. It didn't work against LSU, it didn't even work in the early going against Mississippi State. And if they go that route against Auburn, Bama is going to find themselves in a hole, playing catch up. A losing proposition, for sure. The offense must come out guns blazing. I mean, if this is the only game left that means something, then call it that way. Cut it loose. I actually liked some of the wrinkles McElwain threw into the Mississippi State game to blow it open (lining up Ingram out wide and throwing a screen to him, giving it to Julio on a speed sweep). MORE OF THAT. And if you're going to run Ingram, do it to the OUTSIDE. Hit them with those toss sweeps and counters. Keep the play away from Fairley and let those struggling interior linemen flatten linebackers and defensive backs on the edges.
Get the ball in Julio's hands. Look, guys...I understand how much you love Ingram. He had a legendary year in 09, and minus any lingering issues from the knee injury, he's probably an even better player now. I love him, too. But the offensive line has failed him. He's a square peg (literally, have you looked at him?) and they've become a round hole. It's just not happening. This is Julio's year. GIVE HIM THE BALL. The coaching staff has been fighting it all season, but it's been clear over the second half of the schedule that Julio is playing the best football of his career and is by far the best player right now. He caught 7 balls for 100+ yards AFTER he broke his hand against South Carolina. He beat a future Top 10 Draft pick to the point of it being a no-contest against LSU. This offense HAS to get him the ball more often, especially in this game. There is no one in Auburn's secondary that's a match for him. He's ready to dominate these guys. If the coaching staff can engineer at least 15 opportunities for him to get the ball in his hands, in the air or on the ground, starting early in the game, I think Bama is going to be in great shape to win it. It may cut into Mark's carries, but he'll have to understand. And they're buddies, so they can hash it out over a fishing trip or something.
And that's basically all. It's a seemingly simple task: minimize Fairley's impact. If Bama can do that, and then unleash Julio, they should have no trouble scoring enough points to win the game.
But will they?
I still have another 40 hours or so to figure that out. Be back with The Pick some time between now and then...
Much like the offense, the Auburn D is powered by one spectacular player, defensive tackle Nick Fairley. If something good happens for their defense, Fairley is usually the catalyst. His combination of power, quickness, and technique has generated 7.5 sacks, and he currently sits in the top 10 in tackles for a loss (18). I wasn't able to find a metric for the number of times he's blown up a play without getting tackle credit, but, trust me, it's happened a ton. (Again, I'm resisting the urge to make snide remarks about his penchant for putting questionable hits on the QB. 'Cause I'm classy like that. But, for real, he's dirty.) Most of Bama's focus in this game will have to be on reducing his impact. If they can keep him from busting up plays from the snap, the Tide should be successful attacking this D.
So here's some thoughts on how they might go about all that...
The interior Offensive Line needs to man up. On the offensive side of things, this has been my biggest disappointment of the year. The OL has unexpectedly lost the ability to dominate a game the way the 08 and 09 units did, and it's short-circuited what was supposed to be the strength of this year's offense: the two-head monster of Ingram and Richardson. Part of their struggles could be attributed to injuries (as of this writing, it's still unclear if All-SEC guard Barrett Jones will play on Friday), and part of it could be the result of all these teams with bye weeks coming up with special schemes to stop the run...But, if anything, the 2010 Tide offense is FAR less one-dimensional than the 09 squad and especially the 08 offense. Yet those lines rarely failed to assert their control over loaded boxes. These guys have just lost that will to dominate. I don't know if they don't have the right mix of guys or what, but there's really no excuse for how badly they were whipped by Drake Nevis at LSU. They even let GEORGIA STATE win the battle inside at the goalline and forced Ingram to run wide to score last week. That's embarrassing. And wouldn't you know it...the weakness of this offense is going to be matched up against the best Auburn has to offer in Fairley. If this OL can't find it within themselves to muster one solid 2009-caliber effort, it's going to be a "Honk if you sacked McElroy" kind of game. If they do, well, then you've got a ball game.
Jim McElwain is going to have to call another 09 SEC Championship Game. With the deficiencies at the point of attack duly noted, it's going to take another gem from McElwain if Bama is going to be successful. He's going to have to keep Auburn guessing all day like he kept the Gators guessing last season. This can't be a game where they run Ingram up the middle into the teeth of the defense for a quarter or two, and do nothing, before deciding to cut it loose. It didn't work against LSU, it didn't even work in the early going against Mississippi State. And if they go that route against Auburn, Bama is going to find themselves in a hole, playing catch up. A losing proposition, for sure. The offense must come out guns blazing. I mean, if this is the only game left that means something, then call it that way. Cut it loose. I actually liked some of the wrinkles McElwain threw into the Mississippi State game to blow it open (lining up Ingram out wide and throwing a screen to him, giving it to Julio on a speed sweep). MORE OF THAT. And if you're going to run Ingram, do it to the OUTSIDE. Hit them with those toss sweeps and counters. Keep the play away from Fairley and let those struggling interior linemen flatten linebackers and defensive backs on the edges.
Get the ball in Julio's hands. Look, guys...I understand how much you love Ingram. He had a legendary year in 09, and minus any lingering issues from the knee injury, he's probably an even better player now. I love him, too. But the offensive line has failed him. He's a square peg (literally, have you looked at him?) and they've become a round hole. It's just not happening. This is Julio's year. GIVE HIM THE BALL. The coaching staff has been fighting it all season, but it's been clear over the second half of the schedule that Julio is playing the best football of his career and is by far the best player right now. He caught 7 balls for 100+ yards AFTER he broke his hand against South Carolina. He beat a future Top 10 Draft pick to the point of it being a no-contest against LSU. This offense HAS to get him the ball more often, especially in this game. There is no one in Auburn's secondary that's a match for him. He's ready to dominate these guys. If the coaching staff can engineer at least 15 opportunities for him to get the ball in his hands, in the air or on the ground, starting early in the game, I think Bama is going to be in great shape to win it. It may cut into Mark's carries, but he'll have to understand. And they're buddies, so they can hash it out over a fishing trip or something.
And that's basically all. It's a seemingly simple task: minimize Fairley's impact. If Bama can do that, and then unleash Julio, they should have no trouble scoring enough points to win the game.
But will they?
I still have another 40 hours or so to figure that out. Be back with The Pick some time between now and then...
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Iron Bowl 2010: Unsolicited Advice for the Crimson Tide DEFENSE
Okay, it's Iron Bowl week, so I'm GOING BIG. My plan is to do not one but two editions of Unsolicited Advice for this game, one dedicated to the Tide defense, the other to the offense. There's a lot more intrigue surrounding how the Tide will stop Cam Newton and the potent Auburn offense than how Julio Jones and company will carve up the Tiger defense, so I figured I'd start there.
I'm not going to preface my advice with a big to-do about how great Cam Newton is. What's left to be said at this point? If you want more fawning over him, go read an Auburn blog or something. Not that I'm denying his greatness...because I'm not. He just doesn't need anymore hype from me. I think everyone for Bama is well aware of what the challenge is here. (And if it makes any Auburn fans feel better, I'm resolving to avoid snide remarks about his eligibility. FAIR AND BALANCED.)
So let's talk about that challenge. What's the #1 thing the Tide defense is going to have to do to slow down the Auburn defense*?
Force Auburn into 3rd and long situations. Now, I know you might say, "That's the key to slowing down any offense," and you'd be right. But it's especially true for Auburn because so much of their offense is centered around the run or the threat of the run. If you can put them in, say, a 3rd and 7, the Tigers have to chunk a huge portion of their playbook and ask Newton to do some things that he's not extremely good at doing. If the game can be boiled down to Newton passing the ball against a confounding Nick Saban nickel scheme, you have to like Nick Saban's odds to win that match more often than not.
However, as 11 teams have already learned, getting Auburn to 3rd and long ain't easy. And if you can get them in that situation, there's still no guarantee Newton won't turn a pass play into a 50 yard run. So how can the Tide do what no one else has? I HAVE SOME THOUGHTS...
Finish tackles at and behind the line of scrimmage. I think this has really been the bane of the Bama defense all year, even moreso than the young DBs struggling in coverage. You expect that. You don't expect a Nick Saban defense to whiff on as many tackles as this year's has. It might be an understatement to say that there have been dozens upon dozens of instances where a Tide defender or multiple defenders have had a play stopped for no gain or a loss only to fail to complete the tackle and let it go for a gain (often a substantial one). That can NOT happen against Auburn. Their spread scheme creates wide open spaces on the field. One missed tackle at or behind the line opens up a world of possibilities for a guy like Cam Newton. In fact, that's how he's made a lot of his hay this season. But it's not just him you have to worry about. Onterrio McCalebb is a homerun threat in the open field, and Michael Dyer will hurt you if he gets to the second level of your defense. Auburn is going to be enough of a problem for the Tide defense without giving them "bonus yards" on second chances when you've go the play sniffed out. Finishing those plays will be key to getting Auburn into the obvious 3rd down passing situations Bama needs to create if they're going to get Newton off the field.
Defensive linemen must keep Newton in front of them. Another way Newton has preyed on opposing defenses is by taking advantage of overeager defensive ends that rush past him upfield, creating huge running lanes to the outside. The key for Bama's DL will be to never get deeper than Newton and always keep him in their sights. To borrow an overused phrase, "Don't try to be a hero." Every week I see ends who think they're going to throw their best Dwight Freeney on the OL and be the guy who blows up Newton in the pocket, and every week, they fail. You may get him once doing that, but more often than not, he's going to take the escape route you just created and hit a big gain. The ends and rushing linebackers just need to focus on holding the edge and providing a solid contain, and simply let the interior linemen push the pocket into Newton's face and funnel him towards their waiting arms, as opposed to chasing him around the field like wildmen in a race they will surely lose. This is another way the Tide defense can limit Newton's ability to create "bonus yards" if coverage is doing it's job downfield. You may not be generating sacks, but a throwaway incompletion is a win. And is especially preferable over a 6, 15, 30, or 75 yard run by the quarterback.
Defensive backs must offer consistent run support and contain the edges. This has really irked me this year, but maybe I just got spoiled by bulldogs like Javier Arenas and Kareem Jackson the past couple of seasons. The DBs have been some of the worst offenders when it comes to whiffing on tackles around the line of scrimmage, and they've been especially bad at knowing where they are in the play and what their role is in run support, specifically as it pertains to backside contain. Dre Kirkpatrick gets caught up in the trash and let's a run get outside him at least once a game. Robert Lester, for all his ballhawking skills, is a terribly inconsistent tackler. DeQuan Menzie does a lousy job getting off or around blocks at the Star position, at least by comparison to the standard Arenas set. Even the great Mark Barron has been guilty of overpursuing plays and losing track of his assignment this year. The only guy who seems to have gotten better as the season has gone on is DeMarcus Milliner, but is he mentally ready for the Auburn offensive scheme? Nobody attacks the edges quite as well as the Tigers have this year. Whether it's the 3 or 4 reverses they run every game, the fly sweeps and tosses to the deadly McCalebb, or just good ol' Newton busting out into the open field, they put your perimeter run defense to the test with regularity. If you can't contain it, you're done. They'll gash you all day. To win this game, this secondary must play far above the standard they've set thus far this season.
Defend the middle of the field in the passing game. Auburn doesn't do a lot in the passing game, partly because they don't have to, partly because, despite his gaudy passing efficiency rating, Newton is still not a very accomplished passer. He has a strong arm, but his accuracy is sketchy and his ability to make reads in a progression is unproven. I think Auburn OC Gus Malzahn has done a great job tailoring this offense around what Newton does well. But when you pay attention to the rare times Newton drops back to throw, he's throwing the same routes over and over again: 10 yard hitch on the sideline, 10 yard drag across the middle (usually to Darvin Adams), all the screen passes, the little crossing routes, the occasional deep throw. It's fairly rudimentary stuff that's easy to defend if you can get Auburn into obvious passing situations when you know it's coming (that being the afformentioned hard part). All that said, I've noticed one play in particular that has developed into what I'd call their "dagger" play in the passing game. (For my purposes, a dagger play is one you're ruthlessly effective at running and that is equally demoralizing to the defense.) It's a play action pass where they fake the read option then Newton pulls up and throws a middle seam route to either the tight end Phillip Lutzenkirchen or slot receiver Emory Blake. They started running this more in the second half of the season, and they really like running it inside the 20 to get in the endzone. It plays to Newton's strengths because the run action creates some open spaces down field and allows him to simply power a throw through a large window off one read. And it really works on a defense's psyche because everyone focuses so much on that option, so when the tight end turns up in the endzone with the ball in his hands, it makes you question everything you're doing from that point forward. Bama MUST take that throw away from Newton (along with that 1o yard drag) and make him beat them to the outside where his mostly unrefined passing skills can present opportunities for the secondary to make plays on the ball.
And they can expect to see that middle seam to the tight end early, and perhaps often. Go watch tape of some of Bama's recent games. Ole Miss ran a similar play, but the TE dropped it off his hip with open field in front of him. LSU ran the exact same play as Ole Miss and completed it for a long gain. So did Mississippi State. So did GEORGIA STATE. I promise you Malzahn has seen the tape. If the Tide hasn't figured out how to stop that yet, they're going to lose. And by this point, maybe they would deserve to.
*"Slow down" is the operative term here. Even if the Bama defense shows up and tackles better than they have all season, covers better than they have all season, and makes fewer mental mistakes than they have all season, there is still going to be no "shutting down" this offense. Newton is going to get his yards. You have to be prepared to accept that. Even LSU (currently ranked #5 in total defense) gave up 500 yards to Auburn. In fact they were outgained by almost 300 yards in that game. But what was the final score? 24-17. Despite Newton and Auburn more than doubling them up in yardage, LSU slowed them down enough in key situations to be IN that game till the end. And if they had discovered an offense by that point in the season, they probably would have won it.
That's all Bama's D has to do. Just slow them down enough to let the offense win it.
I'll be back tomorow to talk about how they'll do that.
I'm not going to preface my advice with a big to-do about how great Cam Newton is. What's left to be said at this point? If you want more fawning over him, go read an Auburn blog or something. Not that I'm denying his greatness...because I'm not. He just doesn't need anymore hype from me. I think everyone for Bama is well aware of what the challenge is here. (And if it makes any Auburn fans feel better, I'm resolving to avoid snide remarks about his eligibility. FAIR AND BALANCED.)
So let's talk about that challenge. What's the #1 thing the Tide defense is going to have to do to slow down the Auburn defense*?
Force Auburn into 3rd and long situations. Now, I know you might say, "That's the key to slowing down any offense," and you'd be right. But it's especially true for Auburn because so much of their offense is centered around the run or the threat of the run. If you can put them in, say, a 3rd and 7, the Tigers have to chunk a huge portion of their playbook and ask Newton to do some things that he's not extremely good at doing. If the game can be boiled down to Newton passing the ball against a confounding Nick Saban nickel scheme, you have to like Nick Saban's odds to win that match more often than not.
However, as 11 teams have already learned, getting Auburn to 3rd and long ain't easy. And if you can get them in that situation, there's still no guarantee Newton won't turn a pass play into a 50 yard run. So how can the Tide do what no one else has? I HAVE SOME THOUGHTS...
Finish tackles at and behind the line of scrimmage. I think this has really been the bane of the Bama defense all year, even moreso than the young DBs struggling in coverage. You expect that. You don't expect a Nick Saban defense to whiff on as many tackles as this year's has. It might be an understatement to say that there have been dozens upon dozens of instances where a Tide defender or multiple defenders have had a play stopped for no gain or a loss only to fail to complete the tackle and let it go for a gain (often a substantial one). That can NOT happen against Auburn. Their spread scheme creates wide open spaces on the field. One missed tackle at or behind the line opens up a world of possibilities for a guy like Cam Newton. In fact, that's how he's made a lot of his hay this season. But it's not just him you have to worry about. Onterrio McCalebb is a homerun threat in the open field, and Michael Dyer will hurt you if he gets to the second level of your defense. Auburn is going to be enough of a problem for the Tide defense without giving them "bonus yards" on second chances when you've go the play sniffed out. Finishing those plays will be key to getting Auburn into the obvious 3rd down passing situations Bama needs to create if they're going to get Newton off the field.
Defensive linemen must keep Newton in front of them. Another way Newton has preyed on opposing defenses is by taking advantage of overeager defensive ends that rush past him upfield, creating huge running lanes to the outside. The key for Bama's DL will be to never get deeper than Newton and always keep him in their sights. To borrow an overused phrase, "Don't try to be a hero." Every week I see ends who think they're going to throw their best Dwight Freeney on the OL and be the guy who blows up Newton in the pocket, and every week, they fail. You may get him once doing that, but more often than not, he's going to take the escape route you just created and hit a big gain. The ends and rushing linebackers just need to focus on holding the edge and providing a solid contain, and simply let the interior linemen push the pocket into Newton's face and funnel him towards their waiting arms, as opposed to chasing him around the field like wildmen in a race they will surely lose. This is another way the Tide defense can limit Newton's ability to create "bonus yards" if coverage is doing it's job downfield. You may not be generating sacks, but a throwaway incompletion is a win. And is especially preferable over a 6, 15, 30, or 75 yard run by the quarterback.
Defensive backs must offer consistent run support and contain the edges. This has really irked me this year, but maybe I just got spoiled by bulldogs like Javier Arenas and Kareem Jackson the past couple of seasons. The DBs have been some of the worst offenders when it comes to whiffing on tackles around the line of scrimmage, and they've been especially bad at knowing where they are in the play and what their role is in run support, specifically as it pertains to backside contain. Dre Kirkpatrick gets caught up in the trash and let's a run get outside him at least once a game. Robert Lester, for all his ballhawking skills, is a terribly inconsistent tackler. DeQuan Menzie does a lousy job getting off or around blocks at the Star position, at least by comparison to the standard Arenas set. Even the great Mark Barron has been guilty of overpursuing plays and losing track of his assignment this year. The only guy who seems to have gotten better as the season has gone on is DeMarcus Milliner, but is he mentally ready for the Auburn offensive scheme? Nobody attacks the edges quite as well as the Tigers have this year. Whether it's the 3 or 4 reverses they run every game, the fly sweeps and tosses to the deadly McCalebb, or just good ol' Newton busting out into the open field, they put your perimeter run defense to the test with regularity. If you can't contain it, you're done. They'll gash you all day. To win this game, this secondary must play far above the standard they've set thus far this season.
Defend the middle of the field in the passing game. Auburn doesn't do a lot in the passing game, partly because they don't have to, partly because, despite his gaudy passing efficiency rating, Newton is still not a very accomplished passer. He has a strong arm, but his accuracy is sketchy and his ability to make reads in a progression is unproven. I think Auburn OC Gus Malzahn has done a great job tailoring this offense around what Newton does well. But when you pay attention to the rare times Newton drops back to throw, he's throwing the same routes over and over again: 10 yard hitch on the sideline, 10 yard drag across the middle (usually to Darvin Adams), all the screen passes, the little crossing routes, the occasional deep throw. It's fairly rudimentary stuff that's easy to defend if you can get Auburn into obvious passing situations when you know it's coming (that being the afformentioned hard part). All that said, I've noticed one play in particular that has developed into what I'd call their "dagger" play in the passing game. (For my purposes, a dagger play is one you're ruthlessly effective at running and that is equally demoralizing to the defense.) It's a play action pass where they fake the read option then Newton pulls up and throws a middle seam route to either the tight end Phillip Lutzenkirchen or slot receiver Emory Blake. They started running this more in the second half of the season, and they really like running it inside the 20 to get in the endzone. It plays to Newton's strengths because the run action creates some open spaces down field and allows him to simply power a throw through a large window off one read. And it really works on a defense's psyche because everyone focuses so much on that option, so when the tight end turns up in the endzone with the ball in his hands, it makes you question everything you're doing from that point forward. Bama MUST take that throw away from Newton (along with that 1o yard drag) and make him beat them to the outside where his mostly unrefined passing skills can present opportunities for the secondary to make plays on the ball.
And they can expect to see that middle seam to the tight end early, and perhaps often. Go watch tape of some of Bama's recent games. Ole Miss ran a similar play, but the TE dropped it off his hip with open field in front of him. LSU ran the exact same play as Ole Miss and completed it for a long gain. So did Mississippi State. So did GEORGIA STATE. I promise you Malzahn has seen the tape. If the Tide hasn't figured out how to stop that yet, they're going to lose. And by this point, maybe they would deserve to.
*"Slow down" is the operative term here. Even if the Bama defense shows up and tackles better than they have all season, covers better than they have all season, and makes fewer mental mistakes than they have all season, there is still going to be no "shutting down" this offense. Newton is going to get his yards. You have to be prepared to accept that. Even LSU (currently ranked #5 in total defense) gave up 500 yards to Auburn. In fact they were outgained by almost 300 yards in that game. But what was the final score? 24-17. Despite Newton and Auburn more than doubling them up in yardage, LSU slowed them down enough in key situations to be IN that game till the end. And if they had discovered an offense by that point in the season, they probably would have won it.
That's all Bama's D has to do. Just slow them down enough to let the offense win it.
I'll be back tomorow to talk about how they'll do that.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Hey, There's An Alabama Game Tonight
Were you aware?
I'm not going to waste your time acting like this will be some sort of legitimate athletic contest. This is actually a pretty embarrassing situation with one of the most storied programs in college football history getting ready to beat the daylights out of a start-up program in its first year of play. And for what? A favor to a loser coach we ran off a couple decades ago? I don't get it. Nonetheless, we're going to play the game. Hopefully we'll put it away early without ultimately looking like total Bielemas for running it up against these Georgia State kids and keep everybody important healthy for Auburn next week.
The two things about this game I'm actually interested in?
1. How many people show up. Alabama actually has a pretty strong tradition of putting good crowds in the stands even for these walk-over games. However Bama rarely ever plays games on week nights. The last time the Tide played on a Thursday night during the regular season was against Southern Miss in 2001. The odd scheduling (arranged for the benefit of Bama's prep for Auburn next Friday), coupled with the lack of a strong opponent, could lead to quite a few people staying home. Throw in the general damper 2 losses have put on the general mood lately and you've got a recipe for wide open spaces in the stands tonight.
2. Will Georgia State get in the endzone? Alabama has only allowed 32 points at home this season through 5 games. Opponents have only managed to score 2 TDs in Bryant-Denny Stadium. That would be a pretty impressive stat to carry into the Iron Bowl. It's highly doubtful the Panthers will even get a sniff of the endzone against the 1st defense, but they may have some opportunities once the subs start coming in (maybe as soon as the 2nd quarter). This may be the one thing that keeps even me motivated to watch this game the whole way through.
Be back sometime soon to talk about the one game left that matters for Alabama...
I'm not going to waste your time acting like this will be some sort of legitimate athletic contest. This is actually a pretty embarrassing situation with one of the most storied programs in college football history getting ready to beat the daylights out of a start-up program in its first year of play. And for what? A favor to a loser coach we ran off a couple decades ago? I don't get it. Nonetheless, we're going to play the game. Hopefully we'll put it away early without ultimately looking like total Bielemas for running it up against these Georgia State kids and keep everybody important healthy for Auburn next week.
The two things about this game I'm actually interested in?
1. How many people show up. Alabama actually has a pretty strong tradition of putting good crowds in the stands even for these walk-over games. However Bama rarely ever plays games on week nights. The last time the Tide played on a Thursday night during the regular season was against Southern Miss in 2001. The odd scheduling (arranged for the benefit of Bama's prep for Auburn next Friday), coupled with the lack of a strong opponent, could lead to quite a few people staying home. Throw in the general damper 2 losses have put on the general mood lately and you've got a recipe for wide open spaces in the stands tonight.
2. Will Georgia State get in the endzone? Alabama has only allowed 32 points at home this season through 5 games. Opponents have only managed to score 2 TDs in Bryant-Denny Stadium. That would be a pretty impressive stat to carry into the Iron Bowl. It's highly doubtful the Panthers will even get a sniff of the endzone against the 1st defense, but they may have some opportunities once the subs start coming in (maybe as soon as the 2nd quarter). This may be the one thing that keeps even me motivated to watch this game the whole way through.
Be back sometime soon to talk about the one game left that matters for Alabama...
Thursday, November 11, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: November 11-13
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 31-17
#24 KANSAS STATE (6-3, 3-3) @ #17 MISSOURI (7-2, 3-2) (FSN, 12:30pm EST)
In all likelihood, this is the battle to determine the runner-up to Nebraska this year, since the Cornhuskers already have wins over both the Wildcats and the Tigers; Nebraska would need to lose two of their final three remaining games. Two of their final three games are home dates with Kansas and Colorado; a loss in one of those games doesn't seem hugely probable at all. Thus, welcome to the Big 12 North runner-up derby. K-State is coming off a total beatdown of Texas and while Texas may be a huge disappointment and underachiever this year, there's still something to be said for so thoroughly dismantling them. On the flip side, Missouri is coming off a come-from-ahead loss to Texas Tech in which they leapt out to a 17-0 lead and then apparently went home, letting Texas Tech score the next 24 points and win the game. Mizzou has lost two in a row (they lost to Nebraska the week before last) and could use a win here to at least keep alive the hope of a 10-win season and a decent bowl trip. K-State has been brutally one-dimensional on offense (run run run), but it's hard to see that being enough against a surprisingly good Mizzou defense.
THE PICK: MISSOURI 24, KANSAS STATE 14
#20 VIRGINIA TECH (7-2, 5-0) @ NORTH CAROLINA (6-3, 3-2) (ABC/ESPN, 3:30pm EST)
For all intents and purposes, Virginia Tech has all but locked up their umpteenth Coastal division title since the league split into divisions in 2005 (OK, technically their fourth division title in the last six years). They would need to lose two of their final three games to not claim the Coastal crown yet again; anything's possible in the topsy-turvy world of the ACC, but that seems like a tall order, given how well VT is generally playing now. North Carolina scored a big (and surprising) road win over Florida State when FSU once again fell victim to "Wide Right," but it may be asking a lot for their battered and beleagured team to come up with a similar effort against a rested VT team. Here's guessing they keep it close for a while, but VT is able to pull away in the second half.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH 27, NORTH CAROLINA 17
PENN STATE (6-3, 3-2) @ #9 OHIO STATE (8-1, 4-1) (ABC/ESPN, 3:30pm EST)
A month ago, this game looked like a total laugher for OSU, another speedbump on their way to the (potential) conference-deciding showdown with Iowa on 11/20. Then Penn State's freshman QB Robert Bolden got hurt and PSU turned to little-used walk-on QB Matt McGloin. Improbably, McGloin sparked the offense and has led them to three straight wins and rejuvenated hope of a decent season in Happy Valley. Mind you, those wins do come with some caveats -- they came against Minnesota, Michigan, and Northwestern, three of the worst pass defenses in the league (and, in the case of Michigan and Minnesota, defenses that frankly aren't good at much of anything). Ohio State represents a quantum leap in quality from what Penn State has been playing the past few weeks, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Two of those three wins also came in the friendly confines of Happy Valley, while the lone road win was in Minneapolis -- not exactly hostile territory these days. Columbus, OH, on the other hand, will be very hostile territory. OSU has occasionally looked a bit shaky on the road, but they've been positively murderous at home and they're going to be too much for an inexperienced PSU team. McGloin may be able to keep it close for a bit, but that's about it.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE 31, PENN STATE 13
GEORIGA (5-5, 3-4) @ #1 AUBURN (10-0, 6-0) (CBS, 3:30pm EST)
Ah, the first of our SEC triple-header to close out this week. This game looked intriguing a few weeks ago, but primarily as a potential trap game for Auburn. There were reasons to like Georgia anyway -- an offense that's become increasingly dynamic over the course of the season, an extra week to prepare, the hoary old "anything can happen in a rivalry game" chestnut, the possibility of Auburn looking ahead to Alabama -- but then Newtongate happened and things got even crazier. At this point, it's almost hard to remember that Auburn ACTUALLY HAS TO PLAY A GAME ON SATURDAY. With probably the biggest news story of the year swirling around them and a potential national title shot still on the line, the Auburn players have to go out and perform against a Georgia team with nothing to lose. Can you say "pressure"? If he even plays, will the controversy surrounding Newton derail his (and Auburn's) incredible season? It's impossible to say. Literally, any result in this game seems plausible; Auburn could come out flat and distracted and get smoked by a Georgia team better than its 5-5 record. Conversely, they could come out pissed off and motivated and destroy Georgia. Or it could be a nail-biter won by either team -- or anything in-between. For now, I'm assuming that Newtown plays and that he comes out using the controversy as motivational fodder. But that could certainly be dead wrong.
THE PICK: AUBURN 38, GEORGIA 34
#23 SOUTH CAROLINA (6-3, 4-3) @ #22 FLORIDA (6-3, 4-3) (ESPN, 7:15pm EST)
Two teams going in opposite directions. After an ugly 3-game losing streak, Florida's rebounded to win two in a row and in the 55-14 rout of Vanderbilt last week, the offense actually looked (gasp) good. Meanwhile, South Carolina got blasted on its own field by Arkansas and lost for the second time in four games, with the two losses sandwiching unimpressive wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee. On the other hand, the counter-argument is that South Carolina sandbagged the Arkansas game because they knew it had no bearing on their main goal, an SEC East title. The division title comes down to this game, with the winner getting the honor (?) of meeting Auburn (or possibly LSU) in the SEC Championship Game. The key question for South Carolina is whether or not they can turn the clock back a month and play like they did when they stomped a mudhole all over Alabama and established themselves as the dominant team in the East. They've dozed through their four games since then (going 2-2, as noted) and haven't looked remotely as dominant. Florida remains a flawed team -- let me know when the offense looks menacing against something other than the pussycat Vanderbilt defense -- and for once, South Carolina may actually have the more talented team, at least in terms of starters. But it's hard to bet against Urban Meyer in big games and easy to bet against perpetual choke artists like South Carolina -- especially when their own performances over the past month have been so listless.
THE PICK: FLORIDA 28, SOUTH CAROLINA 24
#19 MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-2, 3-2) @ #12 ALABAMA (7-2, 4-2) (ESPN2, 7:15pm EST)
Mississippi State has somewhat amazingly -- and quietly -- remained in the polls for a full month now. Mississippi State! If you had told me before the season that at this point in the season Mississippi State and Alabama would have the same record I... would not have believed you. That said, same record = teams of equal quality. Mississippi State's best win was over a reeling Florida team; since then they also have a pair of narrow wins over UAB and Kentucky and an offense that can only do one thing well: run the ball. Their defense is stout, but against a pissed-off Alabama offense that may not matter. Bama at home, at night, off a loss... hard to see this one going well for Mississippi State, no matter how surprising they've been this season.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, MISSISSIPPI STATE 13
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 31-17
#24 KANSAS STATE (6-3, 3-3) @ #17 MISSOURI (7-2, 3-2) (FSN, 12:30pm EST)
In all likelihood, this is the battle to determine the runner-up to Nebraska this year, since the Cornhuskers already have wins over both the Wildcats and the Tigers; Nebraska would need to lose two of their final three remaining games. Two of their final three games are home dates with Kansas and Colorado; a loss in one of those games doesn't seem hugely probable at all. Thus, welcome to the Big 12 North runner-up derby. K-State is coming off a total beatdown of Texas and while Texas may be a huge disappointment and underachiever this year, there's still something to be said for so thoroughly dismantling them. On the flip side, Missouri is coming off a come-from-ahead loss to Texas Tech in which they leapt out to a 17-0 lead and then apparently went home, letting Texas Tech score the next 24 points and win the game. Mizzou has lost two in a row (they lost to Nebraska the week before last) and could use a win here to at least keep alive the hope of a 10-win season and a decent bowl trip. K-State has been brutally one-dimensional on offense (run run run), but it's hard to see that being enough against a surprisingly good Mizzou defense.
THE PICK: MISSOURI 24, KANSAS STATE 14
#20 VIRGINIA TECH (7-2, 5-0) @ NORTH CAROLINA (6-3, 3-2) (ABC/ESPN, 3:30pm EST)
For all intents and purposes, Virginia Tech has all but locked up their umpteenth Coastal division title since the league split into divisions in 2005 (OK, technically their fourth division title in the last six years). They would need to lose two of their final three games to not claim the Coastal crown yet again; anything's possible in the topsy-turvy world of the ACC, but that seems like a tall order, given how well VT is generally playing now. North Carolina scored a big (and surprising) road win over Florida State when FSU once again fell victim to "Wide Right," but it may be asking a lot for their battered and beleagured team to come up with a similar effort against a rested VT team. Here's guessing they keep it close for a while, but VT is able to pull away in the second half.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH 27, NORTH CAROLINA 17
PENN STATE (6-3, 3-2) @ #9 OHIO STATE (8-1, 4-1) (ABC/ESPN, 3:30pm EST)
A month ago, this game looked like a total laugher for OSU, another speedbump on their way to the (potential) conference-deciding showdown with Iowa on 11/20. Then Penn State's freshman QB Robert Bolden got hurt and PSU turned to little-used walk-on QB Matt McGloin. Improbably, McGloin sparked the offense and has led them to three straight wins and rejuvenated hope of a decent season in Happy Valley. Mind you, those wins do come with some caveats -- they came against Minnesota, Michigan, and Northwestern, three of the worst pass defenses in the league (and, in the case of Michigan and Minnesota, defenses that frankly aren't good at much of anything). Ohio State represents a quantum leap in quality from what Penn State has been playing the past few weeks, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Two of those three wins also came in the friendly confines of Happy Valley, while the lone road win was in Minneapolis -- not exactly hostile territory these days. Columbus, OH, on the other hand, will be very hostile territory. OSU has occasionally looked a bit shaky on the road, but they've been positively murderous at home and they're going to be too much for an inexperienced PSU team. McGloin may be able to keep it close for a bit, but that's about it.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE 31, PENN STATE 13
GEORIGA (5-5, 3-4) @ #1 AUBURN (10-0, 6-0) (CBS, 3:30pm EST)
Ah, the first of our SEC triple-header to close out this week. This game looked intriguing a few weeks ago, but primarily as a potential trap game for Auburn. There were reasons to like Georgia anyway -- an offense that's become increasingly dynamic over the course of the season, an extra week to prepare, the hoary old "anything can happen in a rivalry game" chestnut, the possibility of Auburn looking ahead to Alabama -- but then Newtongate happened and things got even crazier. At this point, it's almost hard to remember that Auburn ACTUALLY HAS TO PLAY A GAME ON SATURDAY. With probably the biggest news story of the year swirling around them and a potential national title shot still on the line, the Auburn players have to go out and perform against a Georgia team with nothing to lose. Can you say "pressure"? If he even plays, will the controversy surrounding Newton derail his (and Auburn's) incredible season? It's impossible to say. Literally, any result in this game seems plausible; Auburn could come out flat and distracted and get smoked by a Georgia team better than its 5-5 record. Conversely, they could come out pissed off and motivated and destroy Georgia. Or it could be a nail-biter won by either team -- or anything in-between. For now, I'm assuming that Newtown plays and that he comes out using the controversy as motivational fodder. But that could certainly be dead wrong.
THE PICK: AUBURN 38, GEORGIA 34
#23 SOUTH CAROLINA (6-3, 4-3) @ #22 FLORIDA (6-3, 4-3) (ESPN, 7:15pm EST)
Two teams going in opposite directions. After an ugly 3-game losing streak, Florida's rebounded to win two in a row and in the 55-14 rout of Vanderbilt last week, the offense actually looked (gasp) good. Meanwhile, South Carolina got blasted on its own field by Arkansas and lost for the second time in four games, with the two losses sandwiching unimpressive wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee. On the other hand, the counter-argument is that South Carolina sandbagged the Arkansas game because they knew it had no bearing on their main goal, an SEC East title. The division title comes down to this game, with the winner getting the honor (?) of meeting Auburn (or possibly LSU) in the SEC Championship Game. The key question for South Carolina is whether or not they can turn the clock back a month and play like they did when they stomped a mudhole all over Alabama and established themselves as the dominant team in the East. They've dozed through their four games since then (going 2-2, as noted) and haven't looked remotely as dominant. Florida remains a flawed team -- let me know when the offense looks menacing against something other than the pussycat Vanderbilt defense -- and for once, South Carolina may actually have the more talented team, at least in terms of starters. But it's hard to bet against Urban Meyer in big games and easy to bet against perpetual choke artists like South Carolina -- especially when their own performances over the past month have been so listless.
THE PICK: FLORIDA 28, SOUTH CAROLINA 24
#19 MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-2, 3-2) @ #12 ALABAMA (7-2, 4-2) (ESPN2, 7:15pm EST)
Mississippi State has somewhat amazingly -- and quietly -- remained in the polls for a full month now. Mississippi State! If you had told me before the season that at this point in the season Mississippi State and Alabama would have the same record I... would not have believed you. That said, same record = teams of equal quality. Mississippi State's best win was over a reeling Florida team; since then they also have a pair of narrow wins over UAB and Kentucky and an offense that can only do one thing well: run the ball. Their defense is stout, but against a pissed-off Alabama offense that may not matter. Bama at home, at night, off a loss... hard to see this one going well for Mississippi State, no matter how surprising they've been this season.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, MISSISSIPPI STATE 13
Friday, November 5, 2010
Julio Jones vs. Patrick Peterson: The Rubber Match
Okay, back in just the nick of time. I had hoped to have a lot more content this week coming off the bye, but as luck would have it, work got ridiculously busy the past 2 weeks and I ended up getting nothing done. (When I said Coaching Carousel would be "bi-weekly" I guess I really meant "monthly at best." This is why I don't do projects...) I'll admit to having some free time last night, but, gosh, that Cam Newton story was awfully diverting. Anyway, I'm skipping over the usual Unsolicited Advice routine to focus on THE matchup of Bama's upcoming game with LSU: Julio Jones vs. Patrick Peterson.
Beyond that, it's your typical recipe for success for the Tide. LSU's quarterbacks are terrible, so if you can stop the run and don't give them short fields off turnovers, they can't do anything. Stevan Ridley is having a solidly productive year and should break 1,000 yards for the Tigers, but he doesn't strike fear in my heart. And if Bama can get Ingram and Richardson on track, they're tough for anybody to beat, let alone Lester.
I mean, I could take some time to hammer home the two major points I've been harping about for the past month (get off to a good start on the road and THROW THE BALL DEEP), but if you're a regular reader here, you've heard enough of that from me already. Just know it's still applicable. If you're new, well, go read my stuff about every game Bama played in October. You'll get the picture in a hurry.
I'd rather take this time to focus your attention on this colossal matchup of future 1st round NFL draft picks out on the edge. Both guys know that this game is going to have a huge impact on their draft stock, and both have had 2 weeks to prepare. This is going to be incredible football. Before we get into this year's game, let's look at how these guys have matched up the past two seasons.
2008: Alabama 27, LSU 21
Jones: 7 catches for 128 yards
Peterson: 4 tackles, 1 interception
Up until his recent outburst against Tennessee, this was probably the high water mark of Julio's career in terms of dominating a game. At this point, Peterson was an obviously talented kid learning on the job.
Signature Moment of the Game: On the first play of Alabama's possession in overtime, Julio drew one-on-one coverage against Peterson. Jones beat him down the sideline then caught a back shoulder fade and took the ball 24 yards to the 1 yard line. Only a great, diving effort from Peterson kept Jones out of the endzone. Not that it mattered in the end. The Tide would ultimately win it on a John Parker Wilson quarterback keep.
Advantage: Julio
2009: Alabama 24, LSU 15
Jones: 4 catches for 102 yards, 1 TD
Peterson: 3 tackles, 3 pass breakups
A battered and worn Julio didn't fare quite as well in the rematch. Though he did makes some plays, including a 73 yard TD off a screen pass that broke the game open for Bama, he failed to make a single catch when matched up against Peterson.
Signature Moment of the Game: Bama fans will always remember Julio's TD. But LSU fans will always remember Peterson's non-interception on the sideline. Being that this is a spotlight on Julio/Peterson, I'll go with the Peterson play. Down 6 points with 6 minutes to go, LSU needed a big play, and, by all appearances, Peterson made it. On 2nd and 7, Greg McElroy rolled right and forced an ill-advised throw down the sideline to Jones. Peterson jumped all over it. It seemed readily apparent to everyone watching that Peterson had made the catch and got at least one foot down inbounds, but for whatever reason (shoddy monitors, the ridiculously restrictive replay rules), the replay officials saw it differently. Who's to say what would have happened if Peterson had gotten the call? Alabama went on to ice the game with a field goal and an interception of Jarrett Lee.
Advantage: Peterson
So that brings us to 2010. Barring some bizarre, calamitous injury scenario, this will be the last time Jones and Peterson face each other until they're cashing checks in the league. How are they doing so far?
Julio is somewhat quietly having a career year. Through 8 games, he's already surpassed his numbers in receptions and yardage in 14 games in an injury-plagued 2009 (currently 45 catches for 669 yards with 3 TDs) and is on pace to top all of his numbers from his stellar freshman campaign. His stats would be even better if he hadn't missed most of the Ole Miss game dealing with the after effects of his broken hand. He was having NO trouble getting open in the early going of that one.
Conversely, Peterson's year has just been quiet, period. He's only collected 2 interceptions, and both of those came in the same game against Mississippi State. Of course, this is as much a complement to him as anything. Teams just aren't throwing his way with any regularity. He has also suffered from a lack of competition. There's been no AJ Green or Alshon Jeffery on LSU's schedule to matchup with thus far, and with Greg Childs out for the season at Arkansas, that's one less worthy opponent for him. To this point, the best receiver he's faced is Auburn's Darvin Adams. And, obviously, their offense isn't run through the receivers this year. This game will perhaps be his only opportunity to compete against a comparable talent at receiver all year.
So here's what's going to happen:
LSU is going to come out and play Peterson one-on-one in man with Julio. They have every confidence in his ability to handle Julio. This will allow them to take the safety that you might normally play over the top of Julio and either move him into the box to assist with the run or to shade their zones to the other side of the field to take away McElroy's second option, say, Marquis Maze (6 catches for 88 yards vs. LSU in 09). If Peterson wins that battle, LSU can turn this into the sort of ugly 13-10 type of game that they can win. Bama's offensive line is good this year, but they've struggled when defenses have gotten 8 or so guys within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage. LSU's front 7 is a bit undersized, but 8 or 9 little guys shooting the gaps can still be a problem.
For Bama to win, or at least win comfortably, Julio has to win that battle better than 50% of the time. No one should expect Julio to just come out and own an elite talent like Peterson, but he's going to have to scare LSU enough in the early going that they pull that safety over to him. Force them to play an honest 7 guys in the box. As long as the defense doesn't go up in flames early on the road (not out of the question, obviously), expect the game plan to feature a mix of designed throws to Julio to start the game. A screen then a go route, a curl then a pick route across the middle, maybe even a sweep out of the wildcat or something. Anything to get more eyeballs on him and open it up for Ingram and Richardson. And, of course, Julio has to make the catches when McElroy gets him the ball. None of this getting amped up and looking to make a play before he has the ball like he sometimes does. If he can succeed, I think Bama wins this comfortably by 10 or 14 points.
And that's the game in a nutshell. Two of the best in the country are going to go heads up with championship hopes and a lot of prospective NFL cash on the line. Should be a lot of fun to watch. I just hope Julio wins...
Prior to the season, I called this game as a 27-17 win for the Tide. However with this Bama squad's road struggles and the offensive line's recent struggles with a stacked box, I'm going to cut down the margin of victory by a couple of field goals. I think the Julio/Peterson battle ends up somewhere in between the two extremes in terms of affecting the score. Call it:
Alabama 21, LSU 17
Beyond that, it's your typical recipe for success for the Tide. LSU's quarterbacks are terrible, so if you can stop the run and don't give them short fields off turnovers, they can't do anything. Stevan Ridley is having a solidly productive year and should break 1,000 yards for the Tigers, but he doesn't strike fear in my heart. And if Bama can get Ingram and Richardson on track, they're tough for anybody to beat, let alone Lester.
I mean, I could take some time to hammer home the two major points I've been harping about for the past month (get off to a good start on the road and THROW THE BALL DEEP), but if you're a regular reader here, you've heard enough of that from me already. Just know it's still applicable. If you're new, well, go read my stuff about every game Bama played in October. You'll get the picture in a hurry.
I'd rather take this time to focus your attention on this colossal matchup of future 1st round NFL draft picks out on the edge. Both guys know that this game is going to have a huge impact on their draft stock, and both have had 2 weeks to prepare. This is going to be incredible football. Before we get into this year's game, let's look at how these guys have matched up the past two seasons.
2008: Alabama 27, LSU 21
Jones: 7 catches for 128 yards
Peterson: 4 tackles, 1 interception
Up until his recent outburst against Tennessee, this was probably the high water mark of Julio's career in terms of dominating a game. At this point, Peterson was an obviously talented kid learning on the job.
Signature Moment of the Game: On the first play of Alabama's possession in overtime, Julio drew one-on-one coverage against Peterson. Jones beat him down the sideline then caught a back shoulder fade and took the ball 24 yards to the 1 yard line. Only a great, diving effort from Peterson kept Jones out of the endzone. Not that it mattered in the end. The Tide would ultimately win it on a John Parker Wilson quarterback keep.
Advantage: Julio
2009: Alabama 24, LSU 15
Jones: 4 catches for 102 yards, 1 TD
Peterson: 3 tackles, 3 pass breakups
A battered and worn Julio didn't fare quite as well in the rematch. Though he did makes some plays, including a 73 yard TD off a screen pass that broke the game open for Bama, he failed to make a single catch when matched up against Peterson.
Signature Moment of the Game: Bama fans will always remember Julio's TD. But LSU fans will always remember Peterson's non-interception on the sideline. Being that this is a spotlight on Julio/Peterson, I'll go with the Peterson play. Down 6 points with 6 minutes to go, LSU needed a big play, and, by all appearances, Peterson made it. On 2nd and 7, Greg McElroy rolled right and forced an ill-advised throw down the sideline to Jones. Peterson jumped all over it. It seemed readily apparent to everyone watching that Peterson had made the catch and got at least one foot down inbounds, but for whatever reason (shoddy monitors, the ridiculously restrictive replay rules), the replay officials saw it differently. Who's to say what would have happened if Peterson had gotten the call? Alabama went on to ice the game with a field goal and an interception of Jarrett Lee.
Advantage: Peterson
So that brings us to 2010. Barring some bizarre, calamitous injury scenario, this will be the last time Jones and Peterson face each other until they're cashing checks in the league. How are they doing so far?
Julio is somewhat quietly having a career year. Through 8 games, he's already surpassed his numbers in receptions and yardage in 14 games in an injury-plagued 2009 (currently 45 catches for 669 yards with 3 TDs) and is on pace to top all of his numbers from his stellar freshman campaign. His stats would be even better if he hadn't missed most of the Ole Miss game dealing with the after effects of his broken hand. He was having NO trouble getting open in the early going of that one.
Conversely, Peterson's year has just been quiet, period. He's only collected 2 interceptions, and both of those came in the same game against Mississippi State. Of course, this is as much a complement to him as anything. Teams just aren't throwing his way with any regularity. He has also suffered from a lack of competition. There's been no AJ Green or Alshon Jeffery on LSU's schedule to matchup with thus far, and with Greg Childs out for the season at Arkansas, that's one less worthy opponent for him. To this point, the best receiver he's faced is Auburn's Darvin Adams. And, obviously, their offense isn't run through the receivers this year. This game will perhaps be his only opportunity to compete against a comparable talent at receiver all year.
So here's what's going to happen:
LSU is going to come out and play Peterson one-on-one in man with Julio. They have every confidence in his ability to handle Julio. This will allow them to take the safety that you might normally play over the top of Julio and either move him into the box to assist with the run or to shade their zones to the other side of the field to take away McElroy's second option, say, Marquis Maze (6 catches for 88 yards vs. LSU in 09). If Peterson wins that battle, LSU can turn this into the sort of ugly 13-10 type of game that they can win. Bama's offensive line is good this year, but they've struggled when defenses have gotten 8 or so guys within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage. LSU's front 7 is a bit undersized, but 8 or 9 little guys shooting the gaps can still be a problem.
For Bama to win, or at least win comfortably, Julio has to win that battle better than 50% of the time. No one should expect Julio to just come out and own an elite talent like Peterson, but he's going to have to scare LSU enough in the early going that they pull that safety over to him. Force them to play an honest 7 guys in the box. As long as the defense doesn't go up in flames early on the road (not out of the question, obviously), expect the game plan to feature a mix of designed throws to Julio to start the game. A screen then a go route, a curl then a pick route across the middle, maybe even a sweep out of the wildcat or something. Anything to get more eyeballs on him and open it up for Ingram and Richardson. And, of course, Julio has to make the catches when McElroy gets him the ball. None of this getting amped up and looking to make a play before he has the ball like he sometimes does. If he can succeed, I think Bama wins this comfortably by 10 or 14 points.
And that's the game in a nutshell. Two of the best in the country are going to go heads up with championship hopes and a lot of prospective NFL cash on the line. Should be a lot of fun to watch. I just hope Julio wins...
Prior to the season, I called this game as a 27-17 win for the Tide. However with this Bama squad's road struggles and the offensive line's recent struggles with a stacked box, I'm going to cut down the margin of victory by a couple of field goals. I think the Julio/Peterson battle ends up somewhere in between the two extremes in terms of affecting the score. Call it:
Alabama 21, LSU 17
Five Questions: SEC Edition
Will Auburn go undefeated and run the table into the National Championship Game?
Brandon: No. I feel that Alabama is still the team to beat in the SEC, I think the Cam Newton train comes crashing to a halt during the Iron Bowl, specifically if Auburn ever gets down by more than 10-14 Points.
Chris: Right now it's hard to bet against the Tigers. I am probably one of the last people not COMPLETELY sold on them, but I still recognize that they are an elite team. However, I will pick Alabama to knock them off in the Iron Bowl. I know that since South Carolina beat the Tide, there has been a game-plan established for how to beat them. It's not that teams haven't tried to replicate it, it's just that they haven't been able to. The Tigers will be tasked with shutting down the Tide's backfield duo, something that nobody except the Gamecocks did. I don't expect lightning to strike twice, therefore, I see the Tide coming out on top and ruining Auburn's shot at the NC game.
J Martin: I'd like to be wrong, but my gut feeling is yes. Cam Newton is playing like one of those quarterbacks I used to create to cheat in NCAA Football when I was kid. You know, Speed = 99, Acceleration = 99, Break Tackle = 99, Arm Strength = 99, etc. Just snap the ball to him and start running around. It was unstoppable. Well, life imitates art. I really don't see a scheme that can slow him down. Primarily because so much of what he does isn't based on scheme. He's at his most deadly whenever what's supposed to be happening on a given play breaks down and he just takes off. He gets into the open field and makes it a game of athlete vs. athlete, and the 6'6", 250 lb guy moving at 4.5 is going to win that more often than not. If you can stop him, you win. But the only team left on Auburn's schedule with the athletes to stop him is Alabama. And as the resident Bama expert, I have to admit I don't have a lot of faith in this bunch's ability to get the job done.
Kevin: It's taken me a long time to come around on Auburn and I still don't think I'm there yet. I just don't think they have the defense to get past Auburn. If you asked me last week I thought that if Georgia could get past Florida that they would have a good shot at Auburn. 2005 was the last time Auburn beat Georgia but I think Auburn beats the Dawgs 52 to 38 but then slips up against Bama.
Ross: No. Auburn will lose to Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but their consolation prize will be a trip to the Sugar Bowl, which isn't so bad.
Who will win the East?
Brandon: Florida. I think each team will take the other out, and they will come out on top of this whole mess.
Chris: Nobody. That's a distinct possibility at this point, right?
J Martin: Barring a fluke Gator loss to Vanderbilt, it's coming down to South Carolina @ Florida. If you asked me before this past Saturday, I would've said South Carolina without a second thought. Now, I'm leaning towards Florida. For whatever weaknesses they've shown this season, they reasserted their dominance over the SEC East by topping a Georgia team that smelled blood coming in to the game. And just as the Bulldogs couldn't take advantage of a down year for the Gators, I'm thinking Spurrier & the precocious Gamecocks will find themselves subjugated to Urban Meyer, yet again.
Kevin: It's Florida. Time To Die South Carolina! Carolina has a chance because they have Lattimore and Alshon but they also have Stephen Garcia and Steve Spurrier and I really have no confidence in that duo to beat Florida.
Ross: Easy answer: whoever wins the South Carolina-Florida game. But, seriously, even though Florida showed some offensive competence against Georgia, I still favor South Carolina slightly. They're better defensively than Georgia and they have some very potent offensive weapons of their own (Alshon Jeffery, Marcus Lattimore, Stephen Garcia). They've also already proven capable of winning a big game this year.
Can the winner of the East upset the West in the SEC Championship Game?
Brandon: This is going to sound strange, so bear with me…IF the East Champion plays Alabama I think that they can upset them, as it happened earlier this year, but if the East Champion plays Auburn, then I don’t think they would have enough.
Chris: If that team believes in voodoo and puts a million hexes on the team from the West. Oh, and those hexes have to work.
J Martin: This is the tricky part. If it's South Carolina, they can win it. They've already proven they can beat Bama, and they came within a boneheaded Spurrier QB change of possibly beating Auburn. Even if LSU were to sneak in to the title game, you'd have to like SC's odds. But if it's Florida representing the East, I say no way. We already know the Gators don't belong on the same field as Alabama right now. And it's difficult to imagine Florida's scatter-shot offense keeping up with Cam Newton for 4 quarters.
Kevin: No they can't. If it's Florida they simply don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Bama or Auburn and if it's South Carolina then Bama will be out for blood and Auburn already took their best shot and will adjust.
Ross: Sure. Whoever wins the East will be a talented squad in their own right and in a winner-takes-all setting like the SEC Championship Game, anything can happen. If South Carolina emerges from the East, they'd definitely have a realistic shot at winning the game, considering that they've already defeated Alabama and took Auburn to the limit. If anyone else emerges, I'd like their chances slightly less. That said... WILL they upset the SEC West champion? No, I don't think so -- Auburn and Alabama are simply playing to too high a level right now.
Will Georgia become bowl eligible this year?
Brandon: Yes. I think they beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech.
Chris: Um...They'll beat Idaho State, get Auburn in a trap game, so an upset IS possible here for an unsung Georgia group, and a Georgia Tech team who has been too inconsistent to predict. They could go 3-0, they could go 2-1, or they could go 1-2 and miss out. I say they barely make the cut by beating Georgia Tech.
J Martin: Yes, but it'll be a nail biter. It will take the Bulldogs all the way to the Georgia Tech game to pick up #6. While they will probably be able to put some points on Auburn, Georgia is just 1-4 away from home this season, and Aaron Murray seemed to catch a case of stage-fright early in the Florida game that cost the Bulldogs some opportunities. It's difficult for me to imagine them showing up to play (likely) a night game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, which has become one of the wildest environments in college football this season, and pulling out the win. #6 is going to have to come at home vs. the Yellow Jackets.
Kevin: I like the confidence you guys have in the Dawgs to win 2 of their final 3. The saddest thing about Georgia's season is that their best victory is against Kentucky. They way Georgia Tech is playing the Dawgs could beat them and our best victory will still be against Kentucky. Like Chris said Georgia could go 3-0 (almost impossible) but they could also go 1-2. I think we will get bowl eligible. If we don't then it could get ugly around these parts.
Ross: Yes. They'll beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech. They'll have a realistic shot at beating Auburn, given Auburn's defensive weaknesses and Georgia's offensive firepower, but ultimately I think Cam Newton will pull out a little more magic to get them by Georgia. Georgia Tech looks eminently beatable, though.
Will Tennessee go winless in the SEC this year?
Brandon: No way. Tennessee DOESN’T lose to Vandy under any circumstances, so I think they will spring an upset on them and salvage their SEC season with at least one win.
Chris: No, as much as I would like to see it happen, the Vols will not go winless in the SEC. The Vols SHOULD beat Mississippi, although the Rebs are playing somewhat inspired football right now (even in losing their last 3 games) against murderers row in the West (Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn with the first 2 of these 3 on the road) and putting up a fight. If the Vols somehow stumble on that opportunity, there is an absolute certainty (or as close as you can get) that the Vols will wear down the Commodores of Vandy with their superior athletes. Then they will finish out the season losing to Kentucky.
J Martin: No. Tennessee is bad, but Vanderbilt is worse. The Commodores were just lucky to catch Ole Miss early enough in the development of the Jeremiah Masoli experiment to steal a win. The Vols should at least be able to spare themselves the indignity of losing to their in-state "rival." I wouldn't even count them out in their other two remaining conference games. They should be competitive. They'll be even more competitive the longer they can keep that 7th loss of their record and the bowl dream alive.
Kevin: Everybody thinks Tennessee wins one. I'm going to say they don't. Houston Nutt and his buddy Jeremiah Masoli will beat the Vols, Kentucky will beat the Vols so that leaves Vandy. Robbie Caldwell will use his expertise from working on a turkey farm and will somehow turn that into motivation for his team to beat Derek Dooley and his bunch of turkeys. Seriously, how do you not get suspended when you are in a bar fight and a dude got kicked off of the SAME team earlier this year for getting into a bar fight.
Ross: No. They'll win one of them -- probably the game at Vanderbilt.
Brandon: No. I feel that Alabama is still the team to beat in the SEC, I think the Cam Newton train comes crashing to a halt during the Iron Bowl, specifically if Auburn ever gets down by more than 10-14 Points.
Chris: Right now it's hard to bet against the Tigers. I am probably one of the last people not COMPLETELY sold on them, but I still recognize that they are an elite team. However, I will pick Alabama to knock them off in the Iron Bowl. I know that since South Carolina beat the Tide, there has been a game-plan established for how to beat them. It's not that teams haven't tried to replicate it, it's just that they haven't been able to. The Tigers will be tasked with shutting down the Tide's backfield duo, something that nobody except the Gamecocks did. I don't expect lightning to strike twice, therefore, I see the Tide coming out on top and ruining Auburn's shot at the NC game.
J Martin: I'd like to be wrong, but my gut feeling is yes. Cam Newton is playing like one of those quarterbacks I used to create to cheat in NCAA Football when I was kid. You know, Speed = 99, Acceleration = 99, Break Tackle = 99, Arm Strength = 99, etc. Just snap the ball to him and start running around. It was unstoppable. Well, life imitates art. I really don't see a scheme that can slow him down. Primarily because so much of what he does isn't based on scheme. He's at his most deadly whenever what's supposed to be happening on a given play breaks down and he just takes off. He gets into the open field and makes it a game of athlete vs. athlete, and the 6'6", 250 lb guy moving at 4.5 is going to win that more often than not. If you can stop him, you win. But the only team left on Auburn's schedule with the athletes to stop him is Alabama. And as the resident Bama expert, I have to admit I don't have a lot of faith in this bunch's ability to get the job done.
Kevin: It's taken me a long time to come around on Auburn and I still don't think I'm there yet. I just don't think they have the defense to get past Auburn. If you asked me last week I thought that if Georgia could get past Florida that they would have a good shot at Auburn. 2005 was the last time Auburn beat Georgia but I think Auburn beats the Dawgs 52 to 38 but then slips up against Bama.
Ross: No. Auburn will lose to Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but their consolation prize will be a trip to the Sugar Bowl, which isn't so bad.
Who will win the East?
Brandon: Florida. I think each team will take the other out, and they will come out on top of this whole mess.
Chris: Nobody. That's a distinct possibility at this point, right?
J Martin: Barring a fluke Gator loss to Vanderbilt, it's coming down to South Carolina @ Florida. If you asked me before this past Saturday, I would've said South Carolina without a second thought. Now, I'm leaning towards Florida. For whatever weaknesses they've shown this season, they reasserted their dominance over the SEC East by topping a Georgia team that smelled blood coming in to the game. And just as the Bulldogs couldn't take advantage of a down year for the Gators, I'm thinking Spurrier & the precocious Gamecocks will find themselves subjugated to Urban Meyer, yet again.
Kevin: It's Florida. Time To Die South Carolina! Carolina has a chance because they have Lattimore and Alshon but they also have Stephen Garcia and Steve Spurrier and I really have no confidence in that duo to beat Florida.
Ross: Easy answer: whoever wins the South Carolina-Florida game. But, seriously, even though Florida showed some offensive competence against Georgia, I still favor South Carolina slightly. They're better defensively than Georgia and they have some very potent offensive weapons of their own (Alshon Jeffery, Marcus Lattimore, Stephen Garcia). They've also already proven capable of winning a big game this year.
Can the winner of the East upset the West in the SEC Championship Game?
Brandon: This is going to sound strange, so bear with me…IF the East Champion plays Alabama I think that they can upset them, as it happened earlier this year, but if the East Champion plays Auburn, then I don’t think they would have enough.
Chris: If that team believes in voodoo and puts a million hexes on the team from the West. Oh, and those hexes have to work.
J Martin: This is the tricky part. If it's South Carolina, they can win it. They've already proven they can beat Bama, and they came within a boneheaded Spurrier QB change of possibly beating Auburn. Even if LSU were to sneak in to the title game, you'd have to like SC's odds. But if it's Florida representing the East, I say no way. We already know the Gators don't belong on the same field as Alabama right now. And it's difficult to imagine Florida's scatter-shot offense keeping up with Cam Newton for 4 quarters.
Kevin: No they can't. If it's Florida they simply don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Bama or Auburn and if it's South Carolina then Bama will be out for blood and Auburn already took their best shot and will adjust.
Ross: Sure. Whoever wins the East will be a talented squad in their own right and in a winner-takes-all setting like the SEC Championship Game, anything can happen. If South Carolina emerges from the East, they'd definitely have a realistic shot at winning the game, considering that they've already defeated Alabama and took Auburn to the limit. If anyone else emerges, I'd like their chances slightly less. That said... WILL they upset the SEC West champion? No, I don't think so -- Auburn and Alabama are simply playing to too high a level right now.
Will Georgia become bowl eligible this year?
Brandon: Yes. I think they beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech.
Chris: Um...They'll beat Idaho State, get Auburn in a trap game, so an upset IS possible here for an unsung Georgia group, and a Georgia Tech team who has been too inconsistent to predict. They could go 3-0, they could go 2-1, or they could go 1-2 and miss out. I say they barely make the cut by beating Georgia Tech.
J Martin: Yes, but it'll be a nail biter. It will take the Bulldogs all the way to the Georgia Tech game to pick up #6. While they will probably be able to put some points on Auburn, Georgia is just 1-4 away from home this season, and Aaron Murray seemed to catch a case of stage-fright early in the Florida game that cost the Bulldogs some opportunities. It's difficult for me to imagine them showing up to play (likely) a night game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, which has become one of the wildest environments in college football this season, and pulling out the win. #6 is going to have to come at home vs. the Yellow Jackets.
Kevin: I like the confidence you guys have in the Dawgs to win 2 of their final 3. The saddest thing about Georgia's season is that their best victory is against Kentucky. They way Georgia Tech is playing the Dawgs could beat them and our best victory will still be against Kentucky. Like Chris said Georgia could go 3-0 (almost impossible) but they could also go 1-2. I think we will get bowl eligible. If we don't then it could get ugly around these parts.
Ross: Yes. They'll beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech. They'll have a realistic shot at beating Auburn, given Auburn's defensive weaknesses and Georgia's offensive firepower, but ultimately I think Cam Newton will pull out a little more magic to get them by Georgia. Georgia Tech looks eminently beatable, though.
Will Tennessee go winless in the SEC this year?
Brandon: No way. Tennessee DOESN’T lose to Vandy under any circumstances, so I think they will spring an upset on them and salvage their SEC season with at least one win.
Chris: No, as much as I would like to see it happen, the Vols will not go winless in the SEC. The Vols SHOULD beat Mississippi, although the Rebs are playing somewhat inspired football right now (even in losing their last 3 games) against murderers row in the West (Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn with the first 2 of these 3 on the road) and putting up a fight. If the Vols somehow stumble on that opportunity, there is an absolute certainty (or as close as you can get) that the Vols will wear down the Commodores of Vandy with their superior athletes. Then they will finish out the season losing to Kentucky.
J Martin: No. Tennessee is bad, but Vanderbilt is worse. The Commodores were just lucky to catch Ole Miss early enough in the development of the Jeremiah Masoli experiment to steal a win. The Vols should at least be able to spare themselves the indignity of losing to their in-state "rival." I wouldn't even count them out in their other two remaining conference games. They should be competitive. They'll be even more competitive the longer they can keep that 7th loss of their record and the bowl dream alive.
Kevin: Everybody thinks Tennessee wins one. I'm going to say they don't. Houston Nutt and his buddy Jeremiah Masoli will beat the Vols, Kentucky will beat the Vols so that leaves Vandy. Robbie Caldwell will use his expertise from working on a turkey farm and will somehow turn that into motivation for his team to beat Derek Dooley and his bunch of turkeys. Seriously, how do you not get suspended when you are in a bar fight and a dude got kicked off of the SAME team earlier this year for getting into a bar fight.
Ross: No. They'll win one of them -- probably the game at Vanderbilt.
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