2010 CFBZ Prediction: 2nd Place in Big 12 North
2010 Actual Finish: Tied for 1st place in the Big 12 North (10-3, 6-2)
Missouri started out the season sky high by winning their first seven games including a huge victory over then Oklahoma. After knocking off the Sooners, the Tigers took the #6 spot in the Nation into Lincoln Nebraska but fell 31 to 17 after falling behind by 24 points in the very first quarter. The loss to Nebraska hurt but it was the lost the very next week against Texas Tech that would keep them out of the Big 12 Championship game. Missouri closed the season by winning 3 straight against Big 12 North foes before falling to an underachieving Iowa team at the Insight Bowl to finish the year 10-3. From 2009 to 2010 the Missouri defense decreased their points allowed from 25.4 all the way down to just 16.1 per game which ranked them 6th in the Nation in scoring defense. Missouri also had a turnover margin of +11. When you think of Missouri you think of offense but it was an improved defense that helped them to their 10-3 mark this year. We caught up with the SB Nation Missouri Blog Rock M Nation to get their take on the 2010 Tigers and get a sneak peak into 2011.
1. Missouri finished 10-3 and 6-2 in the Big 12. It was pretty much where you had predicted them to finish in our Pre-Season Preview. What were your favorite memories from the 2010 season?
I don't think there's any doubt that one game/weekend will stand out above all else when Tiger fans look back at 2010. The date 10/23/10 is now forever etched in Mizzou lore as perhaps the best homecoming weekend ever for the school that is recognized as the birthplace of homecoming. The win against Oklahoma, and everything that surrounded it, wasn't just the win of the year, it's been called by many a "once in a generation" type of weekend. College GameDay made its first appearance in Columbia and Mizzou fans promptly rewrote the GameDay attendance record by packing 18,000 people onto the quad. They packed Faurot Field that night and helped every step of the way as Gary Pinkel got the "Oklahoma monkey" off of his back. From the moment Gahn McGaffie – an up-man, no less – ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown, Mizzou knew something special could happen that night. And it did.
2. If you could have a "re-do" for one game which would it be?
We'll ignore the Iowa loss and take it for what it is: a tough bowl loss against a solid team. That leaves Mizzou's only other two losses up for deliberation. The Nebraska loss was crippling not just because of its ramifications, but primarily because of how it happened. Mizzou could not have looked more helpless in the first quarter, as the Huskers rolled up and down the field with no resistance and Blaine Gabbert was already under siege and taking fire. Mizzou did fight back to make the score semi-respectable for those that didn't watch the game, but for those who did, it was an ugly loss by nearly any qualifier you choose. That leaves the other loss, a road loss to Texas Tech, which I think would be my personal "re-do" game simply because it was one Missouri should have won. Two 70-yard touchdown runs in the first quarter made it look like Missouri was going to waltz through with a win, but the Mizzou offense disappeared and Taylor Potts replaced Steven Sheffield and re-energized Tech. The Nebraska loss was the one that could have meant a Big 12 North title for Missouri, but it was the Tech loss that really sticks in the sides of Mizzou fans because it was one that the Tigers really should have been able to close out.
3. Blaine Gabbert has thrown for over 3,000 yards in each of the last two years but has declared for the NFL draft. Who is waiting in the wings to replace him?
The presumptive starter at this point will be sophomore James Franklin, who saw minimal time in 2010 as the No. 2 behind Gabbert. Franklin is going to be a bit of a different look from Gabbert, as he lacks the cannon Gabbert had but also possesses a few other skills Gabbert didn't. He is considered a "mobile" or "dual-threat" quarterback, but those labels can often unintentionally degrade a quarterback's ability as a passer. Franklin throws with good touch and throws an extremely catchable ball, much like Chase Daniel did, though we're still unsure about his ability as a downfield passer simply because he was never given the chance to air it out. Additionally, if Franklin gets the nod, it should mean a bit of an overhaul for the Missouri running game, as his inclusion in the offense means Missouri can insert the zone read as a staple in the running game. He'll have a bit of a battle for the job in camp, as Tyler Gabbert (Blaine's younger brother) came on strong during bowl practices, but at the moment, it's Franklin's job to lose.
4. Who were the most surprising players this season?
Offensively, you could pick from any one of the trio of tailback Henry Josey, receiver T.J. Moe or tight end Michael Egnew. All were outstanding in 2010 despite having contributed almost nothing in prior years (Josey was a true freshman, and Moe and Egnew entered the season with nine combined career receptions). All three played instrumental roles in Mizzou's offensive success, as Moe wrote himself into Mizzou lore with the "Moe Miracle" late in Mizzou's improbable comeback against San Diego State and Egnew became next in line as another All-American tight end at Missouri. But I think the two most surprising players on Missouri's team this season were on defense. Safety Jarrell Harrison was considered by some to be the team's most unheralded player and perhaps the defensive MVP. He was third on the team in tackles with 69 and picked up two interceptions, and while his numbers aren't mind-boggling, he was a steadying presence in the Missouri defensive backfield, especially once he was asked to lead even more upon the suspension of safety Jasper Simmons. Harrison even played at linebacker against Iowa State – the first time he had done so since grade school – to help defensive coordinator Dave Steckel deal with attrition at the position. The other surprise defensively was end Brad Madison, who led Mizzou with 7.5 sacks, including 3.0 against Texas A&M while filling in for an injured Aldon Smith. His play in 2010 is why fans aren't jumping off ledges with Smith's declaration for the NFL.
5. What does Missouri need to do to improve this off-season so it can challenge for the Big 12 (or whatever they will be calling it) Title?
Mizzou's chances at the Bevo Ten Championship (see what I did there?) aren't necessarily going to be based on what they can improve but rather what they can replace. Mizzou only lost four senior starters total on both sides of the ball and then lost its two NFL-bound players. The quarterback situation will receive the multitude of the spotlight, and for obvious reasons. Missouri should feel largely confident in its ability to replace Aldon Smith at defensive end, but the really pressing need Missouri will find itself with is the defensive backfield. After being the team's weak link in 2008 and 2009, the defensive backfield was outstanding in 2010, but it now loses two seniors at cornerback with six combined years of starting experience in Carl Gettis and Kevin Rutland, as well as Harrison, mentioned above. Mizzou coaches and reporters say they've been recruiting much better athletes at defensive back, and now it's time to prove it. Cornerbacks Kip Edwards and E.J. Gaines both looked very solid during their appearances in 2010, and Missouri's shot at the conference may rest on their ability to assume starting roles with minimal trouble.
Showing posts with label Missouri Tigers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Missouri Tigers. Show all posts
Monday, January 31, 2011
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Bowl Predictions Part 2 (12/27-12/30)
If you missed the first round of bowl predictions just click here to catch up on what you missed. As of the printing of this blog we have had 5 bowl games and so far Ross is 4-1 in his predictions (only missing on NIU/Fresno) and I'm 3-2.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl (12/27 5pm on ESPN 2)
Air Force (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: AIR FORCE 31 GEORGIA TECH 27
This is a very interesting game as both of these teams present problems for their opponents defense on a weekly basis. Georgia Tech is the #1 rushing attach in the Nation at 327 yards per game and Air Force is #2 at 317. Air Force has a better resume than Georgia Tech does. Air Force beat BYU (35-14), Navy (14-6) and Army (42-22) while Georgia Tech only had one win against a team that finished with a winning record (beat UNC 30-24 and no Georgia Tech fans I'm not counting South Carolina State). From the latest I have read, Joshua Nesbitt will not play in this game. I think that will be the difference but I honestly would not be surprised if either team won this game. This is one to watch as it should be the shortest game of the bowl season due to both teams mashing the ball between the tackles.
Ross's Prediction: AIR FORCE 35, GEORGIA TECH 24
Champs Sports Bowl (12/28 6:30 pm on ESPN)
West Virginia (9-3) vs. North Carolina State (8-4)
Kevin's Prediction: NC STATE 27 WEST VIRGINIA 24
NC State was one of the most surprising teams this year. West Virginia finished 9-3 and didn't lose a game by more than 6 points all year but their season just felt somewhat underwhelming. The big match-up for me in this game is the West Virginia defense (which only gave up 12.8 ppg this year) versus Russell Wilson and NC State's passing attack (which ranked 19th in the Nation this year). My gut says West Virginia but my heart says NC State).
Ross's Prediction: WEST VIRGINIA 28, NC STATE 24
Insight Bowl (12/28 10 pm on ESPN)
Missouri (10-2) vs. Iowa (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: MISSOURI 27 IOWA 17
The biggest thing that sticks in my mind is how Iowa finished the season. They lost 3 straight games, one to Ohio State, but the other two to Northwestern (a decent team) and Minnesota (an awful team). Iowa is also looking at some key suspensions for the bowl game. I'm not in love with Missouri but I like them in this one.
Ross's Prediction: IOWA 24, MISSOURI 17
Military Bowl (12/29 2:30 pm on ESPN)
East Carolina (6-6) vs. Maryland (8-40
Kevin's Prediction: MARYLAND 38 EAST CAROLINA 27
Was there a more up and down team than East Carolina this year? They beat NC State and Southern Miss but got bombed by the likes of Rice and gave up 76 points to Navy. That is not a team I can pick to win a bowl game. East Carolina gave up a whooping 43.4 points per game this year. There is turmoil in Maryland but I think they win this one for the Fridge.
Ross's Prediction: MARYLAND 37, EAST CAROLINA 24
This is another game where an unsettled coaching situation could produce thoroughly unpredictable results, but I think Maryland sends Friedgen out with a win -- especially since ECU's defense is purely theoretical.
Texas Bowl (12/29 6pm on ESPN)
Illinois (6-6) vs. Baylor (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: BAYLOR 34 ILLINOIS 24
I refuse to live in a world where I pick a 6-6 Ron Zook coached team to win a bowl game. Baylor was really good offensively this year and Illinois was known to give up some points this year (see also: back-to-back weeks giving up 67 to Michigan and 38 to Minnesota).
Ross's Prediction: BAYLOR 38, ILLINOIS 31
Valero Alamo (12/29 9:15pm on ESPN)
Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: OKLAHOMA STATE 38 ARIZONA 28
This is a game that looks fun on paper. Okie State's explosive offense (2nd Nationally in Passing, 29th in Rushing, and 3rd in Scoring) against a pretty good Arizona defense. This would have been a much better match-up if it would have happened early in the year when Arizona was 7-1. Arizona played a tough schedule at the end of the year and fell to Stanford, USC and Oregon. But then they also lost to rival Arizona State. I just can't see them coming back to beat an Okie State team with all those weapons on offense.
Ross's Prediction: OKLAHOMA STATE 34, ARIZONA 24
Armed Forces Bowl (12/30 Noon on ESPN)
Army (6-6) vs. SMU (7-6)
Kevin's Prediction: SMU 28 ARMY 21
The most impressive victory Army had all year was a 45-28 win over 5-7 Kent State. I kid you not. As much as a want to pick Army because this is the "Armed Forces Bowl" I simply can't justify it based on their body of work. SMU isn't exactly a Top 25 team but they did beat East Carolina and Tulsa.
Ross's Prediction: SMU 38, ARMY 24
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (12/30 3:20pm on ESPN)
Kansas State (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: SYRACUSE 24 KANSAS STATE 21
Not a real high-profile match-up based on name appeal but I like what Syracuse did this year. They turned around a pitiful program into a team that knocked off a Top 25 opponent (19-14 win over West Virginia). Syracuse had a bunch of cupcakes on their schedule (Akron, Maine and Colgate) and took advantage of some down Big East opponents (Cincy and Rutgers) but I really like their improvement. Kansas State actually played a couple of adequate non-conference foes this year (UCLA and UCF) but folded like a tent once they got into the meat of the Big 12 schedule (losses to Nebraska, Baylor, Okie State, Missouri and Colorado). This one looks like a coin toss to me but I think Syracuse is going to be more up for this game than Kansas State.
Ross's Prediction: SYRACUSE 21, KANSAS STATE 17
Music City Bowl (12/30 6:40pm on ESPN)
North Carolina (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: NORTH CAROLINA 27 TENNESSEE 24
If you asked me about this one half-way through the year I would have picked UNC by about 30. I think Tennessee started to find itself at the end of the season when they inserted Tyler Bray into the starting line-up but it could also have been the closing stretch of Memphis, Ole Miss, Vandy and Kentucky that did the trick (these teams had a combined record of 13-34). So before we anoint Tennessee as "back" under Derek Dooley lets see them actually beat somebody.
Ross's Prediction: NORTH CAROLINA 31, TENNESSEE 27
Holiday Bowl (12/30 10pm on ESPN)
Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: NEBRASKA 34 WASHINGTON 14
This one looks like a total no-brainer. Assuming Nebraska's offense shows up they shouldn't have much of a problem in this one.
Ross's Prediction: NEBRASKA 38, WASHINGTON 17
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl (12/27 5pm on ESPN 2)
Air Force (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: AIR FORCE 31 GEORGIA TECH 27
This is a very interesting game as both of these teams present problems for their opponents defense on a weekly basis. Georgia Tech is the #1 rushing attach in the Nation at 327 yards per game and Air Force is #2 at 317. Air Force has a better resume than Georgia Tech does. Air Force beat BYU (35-14), Navy (14-6) and Army (42-22) while Georgia Tech only had one win against a team that finished with a winning record (beat UNC 30-24 and no Georgia Tech fans I'm not counting South Carolina State). From the latest I have read, Joshua Nesbitt will not play in this game. I think that will be the difference but I honestly would not be surprised if either team won this game. This is one to watch as it should be the shortest game of the bowl season due to both teams mashing the ball between the tackles.
Ross's Prediction: AIR FORCE 35, GEORGIA TECH 24
Who better to defend Georgia Tech's vaunted triple-option offense than a team that (a) runs a similar offense themselves, (b) plays multiple teams that run that offense, and (c) is full of smart, disciplined athletes. Tech's main hope is having vastly superior athletes, but I'm not sure that will be enough.
Champs Sports Bowl (12/28 6:30 pm on ESPN)
West Virginia (9-3) vs. North Carolina State (8-4)
Kevin's Prediction: NC STATE 27 WEST VIRGINIA 24
NC State was one of the most surprising teams this year. West Virginia finished 9-3 and didn't lose a game by more than 6 points all year but their season just felt somewhat underwhelming. The big match-up for me in this game is the West Virginia defense (which only gave up 12.8 ppg this year) versus Russell Wilson and NC State's passing attack (which ranked 19th in the Nation this year). My gut says West Virginia but my heart says NC State).
Ross's Prediction: WEST VIRGINIA 28, NC STATE 24
West Virginia probably was the best team in the Big East this year -- but they stumbled against UConn and (more absurdly) Syracuse and that kept them from making yet another BCS bowl this year. But it should still be enough to get by a good-but-not-great NC State team, unless the behind-the-scenes turmoil with the coaching staff is too much for the team to handle. But their defense should be good enough to slow down Russell Wilson and the NC State offense.
Insight Bowl (12/28 10 pm on ESPN)
Missouri (10-2) vs. Iowa (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: MISSOURI 27 IOWA 17
The biggest thing that sticks in my mind is how Iowa finished the season. They lost 3 straight games, one to Ohio State, but the other two to Northwestern (a decent team) and Minnesota (an awful team). Iowa is also looking at some key suspensions for the bowl game. I'm not in love with Missouri but I like them in this one.
Ross's Prediction: IOWA 24, MISSOURI 17
Against my better judgment, I'm picking Iowa in this one. Lord knows, there's plenty of reasons to pick against them -- they ended the year on a three-game losing skid that included a thoroughly pathetic loss to a bad Minnesota team and then lost their best receiver (Derrell Johnson-Koulianos) and best running back (Adam Robinson) for the game in off-field turmoil -- but I think they come out with something to prove and actually win a close game.
Military Bowl (12/29 2:30 pm on ESPN)
East Carolina (6-6) vs. Maryland (8-40
Kevin's Prediction: MARYLAND 38 EAST CAROLINA 27
Was there a more up and down team than East Carolina this year? They beat NC State and Southern Miss but got bombed by the likes of Rice and gave up 76 points to Navy. That is not a team I can pick to win a bowl game. East Carolina gave up a whooping 43.4 points per game this year. There is turmoil in Maryland but I think they win this one for the Fridge.
Ross's Prediction: MARYLAND 37, EAST CAROLINA 24
This is another game where an unsettled coaching situation could produce thoroughly unpredictable results, but I think Maryland sends Friedgen out with a win -- especially since ECU's defense is purely theoretical.
Texas Bowl (12/29 6pm on ESPN)
Illinois (6-6) vs. Baylor (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: BAYLOR 34 ILLINOIS 24
I refuse to live in a world where I pick a 6-6 Ron Zook coached team to win a bowl game. Baylor was really good offensively this year and Illinois was known to give up some points this year (see also: back-to-back weeks giving up 67 to Michigan and 38 to Minnesota).
Ross's Prediction: BAYLOR 38, ILLINOIS 31
There's definite potential for Baylor to fall victim to "just happy to be there" disease for making their first bowl game in years... but the same could be said for Illinois to an extent, since most of their players haven't played in a bowl game, either. When in doubt, it's sometimes useful to go with the best player on the field -- and in this case that's undoubtedly Baylor's do-everything QB, Robert Griffin III. I think he'll have a big game and carry Baylor to a close win.
Valero Alamo (12/29 9:15pm on ESPN)
Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: OKLAHOMA STATE 38 ARIZONA 28
This is a game that looks fun on paper. Okie State's explosive offense (2nd Nationally in Passing, 29th in Rushing, and 3rd in Scoring) against a pretty good Arizona defense. This would have been a much better match-up if it would have happened early in the year when Arizona was 7-1. Arizona played a tough schedule at the end of the year and fell to Stanford, USC and Oregon. But then they also lost to rival Arizona State. I just can't see them coming back to beat an Okie State team with all those weapons on offense.
Ross's Prediction: OKLAHOMA STATE 34, ARIZONA 24
Both teams lost heart-breakers to their hated in-state rivals in their season finales, so both will be trying to rebound here. But Arizona fell apart down the stretch and Oklahoma State seems to have superior personnel on offense. Arizona also laid the ugliest of eggs last year in the Holiday Bowl, so I don't really have a lot of faith in Mike Stoops' bowl prep ability right now.
Armed Forces Bowl (12/30 Noon on ESPN)
Army (6-6) vs. SMU (7-6)
Kevin's Prediction: SMU 28 ARMY 21
The most impressive victory Army had all year was a 45-28 win over 5-7 Kent State. I kid you not. As much as a want to pick Army because this is the "Armed Forces Bowl" I simply can't justify it based on their body of work. SMU isn't exactly a Top 25 team but they did beat East Carolina and Tulsa.
Ross's Prediction: SMU 38, ARMY 24
It's great that Army made it to a bowl game, but they're not really very good. SMU isn't great, either, but they've looked pretty solid at times and held their own against some quality foes (like TCU). I think June Jones will have the SMU offense ready to shred Army's defense, too.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (12/30 3:20pm on ESPN)
Kansas State (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: SYRACUSE 24 KANSAS STATE 21
Not a real high-profile match-up based on name appeal but I like what Syracuse did this year. They turned around a pitiful program into a team that knocked off a Top 25 opponent (19-14 win over West Virginia). Syracuse had a bunch of cupcakes on their schedule (Akron, Maine and Colgate) and took advantage of some down Big East opponents (Cincy and Rutgers) but I really like their improvement. Kansas State actually played a couple of adequate non-conference foes this year (UCLA and UCF) but folded like a tent once they got into the meat of the Big 12 schedule (losses to Nebraska, Baylor, Okie State, Missouri and Colorado). This one looks like a coin toss to me but I think Syracuse is going to be more up for this game than Kansas State.
Ross's Prediction: SYRACUSE 21, KANSAS STATE 17
On one hand, you could go with the best player on the field -- and that should be Kansas State's Daniel Thomas. On the other hand, you could go with the team more excited to be there -- which is probably Syracuse, given their long years in the wilderness over the past decade. Flip of the coin says Syracuse in a close one.
Music City Bowl (12/30 6:40pm on ESPN)
North Carolina (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: NORTH CAROLINA 27 TENNESSEE 24
If you asked me about this one half-way through the year I would have picked UNC by about 30. I think Tennessee started to find itself at the end of the season when they inserted Tyler Bray into the starting line-up but it could also have been the closing stretch of Memphis, Ole Miss, Vandy and Kentucky that did the trick (these teams had a combined record of 13-34). So before we anoint Tennessee as "back" under Derek Dooley lets see them actually beat somebody.
Ross's Prediction: NORTH CAROLINA 31, TENNESSEE 27
Tennessee came on strong at the end of the year, although they mostly did it against so-so competition. North Carolina was good this year, but not good enough to get by the best teams they played (LSU, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State) -- although they did eke one out against Florida State. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I like UNC to win and end their disappointing season on a minor high note.
Holiday Bowl (12/30 10pm on ESPN)
Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: NEBRASKA 34 WASHINGTON 14
This one looks like a total no-brainer. Assuming Nebraska's offense shows up they shouldn't have much of a problem in this one.
Ross's Prediction: NEBRASKA 38, WASHINGTON 17
The rematch no one asked for. Nebraska pulverized Washington when they met earlier this season, and while I don't think the rematch will be quite as lopsided, there's still no reason to pick against Nebraska here. They're much better, especially on defense.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
The Six Pack Games Of The Week: October 28-30
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 27-15
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28#16 Florida State (6-1, 4-0) @ NC State (5-2, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After the 47-17 beatdown that FSU took at the hands of Oklahoma back in early September, the Seminoles quietly rebounded to rattle off five straight wins and take control of the ACC's Atlantic division, opening up a multi-game lead on NC State and Maryland. Of course, much of that winning streak came on the back of some wins over unimpressive competition; Miami was not only the lone ranked team FSU dispatched in that run, they were the only team with a winning record that FSU beat. The schedule stiffens from here on out, though; every team left on FSU's schedule is (at present) at least a game over .500 and the second through fourth-place teams in the Atlantic (NC State, Maryland, Clemson) comprise three of their next four opponents. After a promising 4-0 start, NC State stumbled by losing two of their next three games (including an upset loss to East Carolina); if they want to have realistic shot at catching FSU in the division, they need to win this game. They key to this game is what FSU defensive coordinator Mark Stoops has whipped up to slow down NC State QB Russell Wilson; if Stoops is successful, this could be a cakewalk for the 'Noles. If not, this one could be a real shootout. I'm leaning towards the former.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 34, NC STATE 20
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30Louisville (4-3, 1-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-3, 2-0) (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)Big East football? Yep, Big East football. Hey, someone has to win this league and get the automatic berth to a BCS bowl. Through two weeks, Pitt is the only Big East team undefeated in conference play -- but they have three non-conference losses, including a blowout at the hands of Miami and close road losses to Utah and Notre Dame. They may very well be the class of the Big East this year -- although that isn't necessarily saying a whole lot. Louisville's already equaled their win total from a year ago and all three of their losses have been close games against decent-ish foes (Kentucky, Oregon State, Cincinnati). Sandwiched around that most reecnt loss (Cincy) are two blowout wins (over dismal Memphis and rapidly-disintegrating UConn). Charlie Strong is getting things turned around there and a fair bit faster than many expected. That said, they probably aren't quite ready to win a game like this and genuinely contend for the Big East title just yet.
THE PICK: PITT 31, LOUISVILLE 21
#6 Missouri (7-0, 3-0) @ #14 Nebraska (6-1, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC)For three straight weeks a top-ranked team has gone down (Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma). The results after that game for the upset-pullers has been mixed; South Carolina went on the road and dropped a weird game to Kentucky, while Wisconsin went on the road to Iowa and narrowly came out with a win. Fresh off their big home win over Oklahoma, now Missouri has to go on the road to face a tough road game against a good Nebraska team. Nebraska had a wild bounce-back game against Oklahoma State a week ago, winning a 51-41 shootout (apparently the vaunted Blackshirt defense was on vacation). Now Nebraska has a chance to wrest control of the Big 12 North from Missouri, to avenge a 52-17 drubbing they suffered the last time Mizzou came to Lincoln... and to give Missouri one final eff you on their way out the door to the Big Ten. Missouri's surprising success this season has come on the back of their defense, which is quite a change from a few years ago, when they just relied on their high-powered offense to put up a ton of points on teams. Still, it's hard to avoid a letdown after such a momentous win and going on the road to play Nebraska and Lincoln is not exactly an ideal follow-up venue.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 28, MISSOURI 20
#5 Michigan State (8-0, 4-0) @ #18 Iowa (5-2, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)Every year there's a team that comes out of nowhere, rides some surprisingly strong play and good fortune to a gaudy record and national recognition. And more often than not, that team stubs their toe at some point. It's really, really hard to go undefeated in modern college football -- especially in one of the big six conferences. The weekly grind is intense, the pressure gets worse by the week, and all of your opponents start getting a little more amped to be the first squad to add a number to the loss column in your record. Teams that manage to navigate an entire season undefeated usually do so on the basis of having at least one truly elite unit (either offense or defense). The much-derided 2002 Ohio State team may have had only a patchwork offense, but they had a hellacious defense. The 2005 USC squad had a so-so defense, but one of the best offenses of the decade. And so on. After eight weeks you are what you are, and what Michigan State is is a good team -- perhaps even a very good team -- but not an elite one. Their defense is good, but not lockdown great. Their offense is good, but occasionally inconsistent. They've gotten exceptional special teams play and that can carry you a long way, but it's also not always a reliable means of scoring points. At least, this is what I tell myself as Sparty gets ready to play an Iowa team working with a make-shift LB corps and prone to some of the ugliest special teams breakdowns I've seen in the last decade of Iowa football. Iowa's back is against the wall -- a loss here and their high hopes for this season are officially toast -- and in spite of their now-obvious flaws, they do still have a very good defensive line (and the Spartan offensive line isn't the elite wall that the Wisco line was a week ago) and a surprisingly potent offense. They have the tools to win this game. At least, that's what I'm telling myself.
THE PICK: IOWA 28, MICHIGAN STATE 24
Florida (4-3, 2-3) @ Georgia (4-4, 3-3) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Prior to last week's much needed bye week, Florida was mired in by far the worst three-game skid of Urban Meyer's Florida tenure; they'd lost three in a row (including a home to loss to, of all teams, Mississippi State) and been held under ten points in two of those losses. The Florida offense has been a FEMA-worthy disaster area all season, but it reached new lows in the embarrassing 7-point effort against Mississippi State. So has a week off been enough to work out the kinks and get them back to a level of, if not good quality, then perhaps just passable quality? To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Tim Tebow isn't walking through that door. Neither is Percy Harvin. The Florida offense remains an oddball collection of players who are very inconsistent (most of the receivers and running backs), just not that good (Emmanuel Moody), or a bad fit for the offense trying to be run (John Brantley). Oh, and they're still coached by Steve Adazzio, who looks increasingly overmatched in his OC position. On the other hand, Georgia has rebounded from their disastrous 1-4 start to rattle off three straight wins and improbably give them a shot at winning the SEC East. They've scored 40+ in all three games; clearly getting AJ Green back from his suspension and the continued development of Washaun Early and Aaron Murray has done wonders for them. That said, the Florida defense has been pretty good this year -- outside two 30+ point efforts conceded to Alabama and LSU, they've held every other foe to 17 points or less. And there is the little matter of Florida absolutely, positively owning Georgia -- they're 17-3 in the last twenty meetings. And they've had a bye week to sort things out and prepare for Georgia. But still... it's hard to completely overlook a half-season's worth of futility. If Georgia can't beat this Florida team, when will they ever beat Florida?
THE PICK: GEORGIA 27, FLORIDA 17
#2 Oregon (7-0, 4-0) @ USC (5-2, 2-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC)A year ago, Oregon's 47-20 destruction of USC served as a clear statement that the era of USC dominance in the Pac-10 was over. A year later, Oregon's now the team with the target on its back and the team with conference and national title ambitions. With two conference losses already (and the sanctions that prevent them from going to a bowl anyway), USC's been reduced to the unfamiliar role of spoiler -- but it's also a role they seem to have embraced (at least against a foe like Oregon). Oregon's coming off yet another lopsided destruction, a 60-13 evisceration of UCLA. USC's coming off a bye and a 48-14 dismantling of Cal that was undoubtedly their best win of the season. Will two weeks of prep time enable USC to engineer a defensive gameplan that allows them to stop Oregon's ridiculously powerful offense? Doubtful. USC's best bet is to take advantage of their own potent offense (Matt Barkley, Robert Woods, Ronald Johnson, and Allen Bradford are all on a roll right now) and hope to get enough turnovers or stops to win a shootout. Winning a shootout against Oregon is easier said than done, though.
THE PICK: OREGON 42, USC 34
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 27-15
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28#16 Florida State (6-1, 4-0) @ NC State (5-2, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After the 47-17 beatdown that FSU took at the hands of Oklahoma back in early September, the Seminoles quietly rebounded to rattle off five straight wins and take control of the ACC's Atlantic division, opening up a multi-game lead on NC State and Maryland. Of course, much of that winning streak came on the back of some wins over unimpressive competition; Miami was not only the lone ranked team FSU dispatched in that run, they were the only team with a winning record that FSU beat. The schedule stiffens from here on out, though; every team left on FSU's schedule is (at present) at least a game over .500 and the second through fourth-place teams in the Atlantic (NC State, Maryland, Clemson) comprise three of their next four opponents. After a promising 4-0 start, NC State stumbled by losing two of their next three games (including an upset loss to East Carolina); if they want to have realistic shot at catching FSU in the division, they need to win this game. They key to this game is what FSU defensive coordinator Mark Stoops has whipped up to slow down NC State QB Russell Wilson; if Stoops is successful, this could be a cakewalk for the 'Noles. If not, this one could be a real shootout. I'm leaning towards the former.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 34, NC STATE 20
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30Louisville (4-3, 1-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-3, 2-0) (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)Big East football? Yep, Big East football. Hey, someone has to win this league and get the automatic berth to a BCS bowl. Through two weeks, Pitt is the only Big East team undefeated in conference play -- but they have three non-conference losses, including a blowout at the hands of Miami and close road losses to Utah and Notre Dame. They may very well be the class of the Big East this year -- although that isn't necessarily saying a whole lot. Louisville's already equaled their win total from a year ago and all three of their losses have been close games against decent-ish foes (Kentucky, Oregon State, Cincinnati). Sandwiched around that most reecnt loss (Cincy) are two blowout wins (over dismal Memphis and rapidly-disintegrating UConn). Charlie Strong is getting things turned around there and a fair bit faster than many expected. That said, they probably aren't quite ready to win a game like this and genuinely contend for the Big East title just yet.
THE PICK: PITT 31, LOUISVILLE 21
#6 Missouri (7-0, 3-0) @ #14 Nebraska (6-1, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC)For three straight weeks a top-ranked team has gone down (Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma). The results after that game for the upset-pullers has been mixed; South Carolina went on the road and dropped a weird game to Kentucky, while Wisconsin went on the road to Iowa and narrowly came out with a win. Fresh off their big home win over Oklahoma, now Missouri has to go on the road to face a tough road game against a good Nebraska team. Nebraska had a wild bounce-back game against Oklahoma State a week ago, winning a 51-41 shootout (apparently the vaunted Blackshirt defense was on vacation). Now Nebraska has a chance to wrest control of the Big 12 North from Missouri, to avenge a 52-17 drubbing they suffered the last time Mizzou came to Lincoln... and to give Missouri one final eff you on their way out the door to the Big Ten. Missouri's surprising success this season has come on the back of their defense, which is quite a change from a few years ago, when they just relied on their high-powered offense to put up a ton of points on teams. Still, it's hard to avoid a letdown after such a momentous win and going on the road to play Nebraska and Lincoln is not exactly an ideal follow-up venue.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 28, MISSOURI 20
#5 Michigan State (8-0, 4-0) @ #18 Iowa (5-2, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)Every year there's a team that comes out of nowhere, rides some surprisingly strong play and good fortune to a gaudy record and national recognition. And more often than not, that team stubs their toe at some point. It's really, really hard to go undefeated in modern college football -- especially in one of the big six conferences. The weekly grind is intense, the pressure gets worse by the week, and all of your opponents start getting a little more amped to be the first squad to add a number to the loss column in your record. Teams that manage to navigate an entire season undefeated usually do so on the basis of having at least one truly elite unit (either offense or defense). The much-derided 2002 Ohio State team may have had only a patchwork offense, but they had a hellacious defense. The 2005 USC squad had a so-so defense, but one of the best offenses of the decade. And so on. After eight weeks you are what you are, and what Michigan State is is a good team -- perhaps even a very good team -- but not an elite one. Their defense is good, but not lockdown great. Their offense is good, but occasionally inconsistent. They've gotten exceptional special teams play and that can carry you a long way, but it's also not always a reliable means of scoring points. At least, this is what I tell myself as Sparty gets ready to play an Iowa team working with a make-shift LB corps and prone to some of the ugliest special teams breakdowns I've seen in the last decade of Iowa football. Iowa's back is against the wall -- a loss here and their high hopes for this season are officially toast -- and in spite of their now-obvious flaws, they do still have a very good defensive line (and the Spartan offensive line isn't the elite wall that the Wisco line was a week ago) and a surprisingly potent offense. They have the tools to win this game. At least, that's what I'm telling myself.
THE PICK: IOWA 28, MICHIGAN STATE 24
Florida (4-3, 2-3) @ Georgia (4-4, 3-3) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Prior to last week's much needed bye week, Florida was mired in by far the worst three-game skid of Urban Meyer's Florida tenure; they'd lost three in a row (including a home to loss to, of all teams, Mississippi State) and been held under ten points in two of those losses. The Florida offense has been a FEMA-worthy disaster area all season, but it reached new lows in the embarrassing 7-point effort against Mississippi State. So has a week off been enough to work out the kinks and get them back to a level of, if not good quality, then perhaps just passable quality? To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Tim Tebow isn't walking through that door. Neither is Percy Harvin. The Florida offense remains an oddball collection of players who are very inconsistent (most of the receivers and running backs), just not that good (Emmanuel Moody), or a bad fit for the offense trying to be run (John Brantley). Oh, and they're still coached by Steve Adazzio, who looks increasingly overmatched in his OC position. On the other hand, Georgia has rebounded from their disastrous 1-4 start to rattle off three straight wins and improbably give them a shot at winning the SEC East. They've scored 40+ in all three games; clearly getting AJ Green back from his suspension and the continued development of Washaun Early and Aaron Murray has done wonders for them. That said, the Florida defense has been pretty good this year -- outside two 30+ point efforts conceded to Alabama and LSU, they've held every other foe to 17 points or less. And there is the little matter of Florida absolutely, positively owning Georgia -- they're 17-3 in the last twenty meetings. And they've had a bye week to sort things out and prepare for Georgia. But still... it's hard to completely overlook a half-season's worth of futility. If Georgia can't beat this Florida team, when will they ever beat Florida?
THE PICK: GEORGIA 27, FLORIDA 17
#2 Oregon (7-0, 4-0) @ USC (5-2, 2-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC)A year ago, Oregon's 47-20 destruction of USC served as a clear statement that the era of USC dominance in the Pac-10 was over. A year later, Oregon's now the team with the target on its back and the team with conference and national title ambitions. With two conference losses already (and the sanctions that prevent them from going to a bowl anyway), USC's been reduced to the unfamiliar role of spoiler -- but it's also a role they seem to have embraced (at least against a foe like Oregon). Oregon's coming off yet another lopsided destruction, a 60-13 evisceration of UCLA. USC's coming off a bye and a 48-14 dismantling of Cal that was undoubtedly their best win of the season. Will two weeks of prep time enable USC to engineer a defensive gameplan that allows them to stop Oregon's ridiculously powerful offense? Doubtful. USC's best bet is to take advantage of their own potent offense (Matt Barkley, Robert Woods, Ronald Johnson, and Allen Bradford are all on a roll right now) and hope to get enough turnovers or stops to win a shootout. Winning a shootout against Oregon is easier said than done, though.
THE PICK: OREGON 42, USC 34
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 14-16
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
TWO WEEKS AGO: 4-2
OVERALL 24-12
We took a break last week, but we're back and ready to go this week.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23#6 LSU (7-0, 4-0) AT #4 AUBURN (7-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Another week, another Milacle? Neutral observers (and fans of chaos and random insanity) can only hope so (although Auburn fans probably disagree, as do LSU fans with weak hearts). LSU's improbable undefeated run continues as they face their stiffest test yet -- a road game against top-5 Auburn, better known as The Cam Newton Show, starring Cam Newton, with special guest star Cam Newton. All of which is to say: Cam Newton is really damn good, as evidenced by the fact that through seven game, he's thrown for 1278 yards and 13/5 TD/INT on 80/122 passing and galloped for 860 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. He's a superfreak. And while he hasn't faced any elite defenses yet, he did a pretty good job of carving up (16/21, 158 yards, 2/0 TD/INT, 176 yards rushing, 3 TD) a respectable South Carolina outfit. You have to figure that he's gonna get his against LSU; the real question is what LSU can do to answer him. The Auburn pass defense isn't so hot (see: last week's Arkansas game), but LSU isn't terribly well-equipped to exploit that (outside of stud WR Terrence Tolliver). The unstoppable force that is Cam Newton meets the immovable object that is the Year of the Milacle; call me crazy, but I'm siding with the Caminator in this one.
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, LSU 28
#13 WISCONSIN (6-1, 2-1) AT #15 IOWA (5-1, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)Thanks to the impending Big Ten divisional alignments, this series, which has been one of the most competitive in major college football (Iowa leads 42-41-2), will be going by the wayside to an extent. They'll still play, but not every year and possibly no more than four times in a ten year span. As an Iowa fan, that makes me a little sad, since the Wisconsin games have usually been close, exciting games, although getting an annual game with Nebraska is a pretty solid trade-off, too. Not that this particular game needed any of that "break in the rivalry" juice to make it any bigger than it is, because it's pretty damn big to begin with. Wisconsin restored their Big Ten contender credentials with an impressive 31-18 ass-kicking of then-#1 Ohio State last week, while Iowa went on the road to knock off an explosive Michigan team. Iowa remains one of only three Big Ten teams that's still undefeated (along with Purdue and Michigan State), and they control their own destiny for the league title (assuming someone knocks off Purdue, which seems like a safe bet). Their next three home games are against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State; it's not really hyperbole to argue that the road to the Big Ten crown goes through Iowa City over this next month.
Iowa's played well since their disappointing loss to Arizona last month, but Wisconsin will pose a far different challenge than an inexperienced (and injury-riddled) Penn State team or an electric (but not very physically imposing) Michigan team; Wisconsin is all brawn and beef and very little subtlety. Fortunately, that's precisely the sort of team Iowa has long had success against. Throw in the letdown factor that Wisconsin will inevitably have to battle (see: South Carolina a week ago) and you can see why this will be a very difficult game for them. The key will likely come down to how well they can run the ball on Iowa's defense; if their massive OL can dominate Iowa's talented DL and open up holes for John Clay and James White, it could be a long day for Iowa. On the other hand, if Iowa can keep the Wisco running game mostly in check and force Scott Tolzien to beat them through the air, they should be in very good shape. On offense, Iowa could have trouble establishing a run game with Adam Robinson, but if the OL can provide Ricky Stanzi some decent pass protection (something they've been very good at all year, aside from the end of the Arizona game), he should be able to hit some big plays to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt through the air. I think the Iowa DL makes some big plays and Stanzi has another good day.
THE PICK: IOWA 24, WISCONSIN 14
#16 NEBRASKA (5-1, 1-1) AT #14 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)And now we come to perhaps the biggest "Prove Yourselves" game of the day. Nebraska has to prove that their 5-0 start wasn't a mirage built against dramatically inferior competition and that they can rebound from a gutting loss to Texas in a game that they'd had circled for months. Oklahoma State has to prove that their own 6-0 start isn't just the product of a really favorable schedule and that they can actually beat a good team. Oklahoma State was widely picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South and for fairly understandable reasons: they lost a ton of talent, including multi-year starter Zac Robinson at QB and all-everything WR Dez Bryant. But they returned RB Kendall Hunter (who battled multiple injuries last year on his way to a somewhat mediocre campaign) and they've slotted in QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon to replace Robinson and Bryant and barely skipped a beat. Blackmon, in particular, has been a revelation -- he's leading the NCAA in receiving yards (955) and touchdowns (12) and, yes, he's put up those numbers in just six games. On the other hand, Nebraska will be by far the nastiest defense Okie State has faced this year and they've absolutely stifled passing games all season. The question for Nebraska is how well their own offense can move the ball and score points; Texas completely shut them down and extinguished Taylor Martinez's Heisman buzz. But the Okie State defense is not quite the same thing as a Texas defense coached by Will Muschamp that has two weeks to prepare for the Martinez buzzsaw. When in doubt, side with the elite defense.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 20
NORTH CAROLINA (4-2, 2-1) AT MIAMI (4-2, 2-1) (ESPN2, 6:30pm EST)Before the season, there was some speculation that the ACC Coastal was going to emerge as the toughest division in college football. It had four ranked teams (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami), loads of talent, and high expectations. Midway through the season, we now know that was a lie; the SEC West is unquestionably the top division. But while the ACC Coastal has endured some pratfalls along the way (UNC's ongoing scandals, Virgina Tech's loss to James Madison, Georgia Tech's loss to Kansas, Miami's homefield disemboweling at the hands of Florida State), they've also more or less righted the ship and emerged as solid teams; they're all sitting at 4-2 or better and getting ready for the brutal round robin of games they're going to face against one another over the next month. Despite dealing with massive suspension-induced losses from the ongoing scandals that have engulfed their program, North Carolina has been looking pretty solid after their 0-2 start. Miami has looked unable to compete against foes with talent on par with their own; they lost to Ohio State in a game that was only close because of Ohio State's miserable special teams and got blown off their own field by Florida State. Their four wins have come against Florida A&M, a bad Pitt team, a bad Duke team, and a so-so Clemson team. Suffice to say, I don't really trust them.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA 24, MIAMI 17
#1 OKLAHOMA (6-0, 2-0) AT #11 MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)Oklahoma moved to the top of the initial BCS standings on the back of a 6-0 schedule against a slate of solid opponents (outside of their loss to the Sooners, Oklahoma's opponents are 23-10). The results haven't always been pretty (see: single-digit wins over Utah State, Cincinnati, and Air Force), but wins are the thing and Oklahoma's got 'em so far. Meanwhile, Missouri has quietly gone about its business and also sits at 6-0 and hosting one of the biggest games in their program's history (even with their recent success). Missouri's resume lacks any marquee wins (their best win is... San Diego State? Texas A&M? Illinois?), but they've beaten a collection of teams that has emerged as if not quite "good," at least "perfectly decent." That said, Oklahoma is a whole different beast than any of the teams they've played, especially since they seem to be clicking now. Earlier in the season, they might have screwed around with a not-totally-awful Iowa State team; instead, they obliterated them 52-0, exactly the way an elite team should. That's bad news for Missouri. Strangely, Missouri's success this season has been built on the back of a surprisingly stout defense, rather than the shoot 'em up affairs that constituted their success a few years ago. Can they use that and some homefield mojo to slow down Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and the rest of the Sooner offense? That's tough. The history of the last decade is that Bob Stoops wins big games in the league (it's just those pesky BCS bowl games that give him issues, plus Texas the last few years) and Gary Pinkel rarely does. It's hard to bet against that.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 34, MISSOURI 24
AIR FORCE (5-2, 3-1) AT #5 TCU (7-0, 3-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS College Sports)It's been a while since we've checked in with the non-BCS leagues and this is unquestionably the game of the day from the mid-major ranks. It would have been a match-up of top 25 teams if Air Force hadn't stubbed their toe last week at San Diego State, but as it is, it's still the first quasi-test TCU has faced since the season opener against Oregon State (or Baylor five weeks ago, if you think the Bears are legit). Since their splashy opening week win over Oregon State, TCU has mostly been minding their own business and beating the piss out of teams, especially since they opened up conference play a month ago -- they're 3-0 in Mountain West play and they've outscored their foes by an aggregate score of 103-3 (BYU got a pity FG on them last week). On the other hand, Colorado State, BYU, and Wyoming just aren't any good this year, either. Air Force isn't a great team, but they've emerged as a solid team this year; until last week's slip-up against SDSU, they'd beaten everyone in their path except Oklahoma (who they lost to just 27-24). They also pose a unique challenge for the TCU defense since they run the triple-option. Still, TCU seems too good on both sides of the ball to trip up at hoem against Air Force; this one might be close for a half or so, but TCU should pull away.
THE PICK: TCU 31, AIR FORCE 13
TWO WEEKS AGO: 4-2
OVERALL 24-12
We took a break last week, but we're back and ready to go this week.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23#6 LSU (7-0, 4-0) AT #4 AUBURN (7-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Another week, another Milacle? Neutral observers (and fans of chaos and random insanity) can only hope so (although Auburn fans probably disagree, as do LSU fans with weak hearts). LSU's improbable undefeated run continues as they face their stiffest test yet -- a road game against top-5 Auburn, better known as The Cam Newton Show, starring Cam Newton, with special guest star Cam Newton. All of which is to say: Cam Newton is really damn good, as evidenced by the fact that through seven game, he's thrown for 1278 yards and 13/5 TD/INT on 80/122 passing and galloped for 860 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. He's a superfreak. And while he hasn't faced any elite defenses yet, he did a pretty good job of carving up (16/21, 158 yards, 2/0 TD/INT, 176 yards rushing, 3 TD) a respectable South Carolina outfit. You have to figure that he's gonna get his against LSU; the real question is what LSU can do to answer him. The Auburn pass defense isn't so hot (see: last week's Arkansas game), but LSU isn't terribly well-equipped to exploit that (outside of stud WR Terrence Tolliver). The unstoppable force that is Cam Newton meets the immovable object that is the Year of the Milacle; call me crazy, but I'm siding with the Caminator in this one.
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, LSU 28
#13 WISCONSIN (6-1, 2-1) AT #15 IOWA (5-1, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)Thanks to the impending Big Ten divisional alignments, this series, which has been one of the most competitive in major college football (Iowa leads 42-41-2), will be going by the wayside to an extent. They'll still play, but not every year and possibly no more than four times in a ten year span. As an Iowa fan, that makes me a little sad, since the Wisconsin games have usually been close, exciting games, although getting an annual game with Nebraska is a pretty solid trade-off, too. Not that this particular game needed any of that "break in the rivalry" juice to make it any bigger than it is, because it's pretty damn big to begin with. Wisconsin restored their Big Ten contender credentials with an impressive 31-18 ass-kicking of then-#1 Ohio State last week, while Iowa went on the road to knock off an explosive Michigan team. Iowa remains one of only three Big Ten teams that's still undefeated (along with Purdue and Michigan State), and they control their own destiny for the league title (assuming someone knocks off Purdue, which seems like a safe bet). Their next three home games are against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State; it's not really hyperbole to argue that the road to the Big Ten crown goes through Iowa City over this next month.
Iowa's played well since their disappointing loss to Arizona last month, but Wisconsin will pose a far different challenge than an inexperienced (and injury-riddled) Penn State team or an electric (but not very physically imposing) Michigan team; Wisconsin is all brawn and beef and very little subtlety. Fortunately, that's precisely the sort of team Iowa has long had success against. Throw in the letdown factor that Wisconsin will inevitably have to battle (see: South Carolina a week ago) and you can see why this will be a very difficult game for them. The key will likely come down to how well they can run the ball on Iowa's defense; if their massive OL can dominate Iowa's talented DL and open up holes for John Clay and James White, it could be a long day for Iowa. On the other hand, if Iowa can keep the Wisco running game mostly in check and force Scott Tolzien to beat them through the air, they should be in very good shape. On offense, Iowa could have trouble establishing a run game with Adam Robinson, but if the OL can provide Ricky Stanzi some decent pass protection (something they've been very good at all year, aside from the end of the Arizona game), he should be able to hit some big plays to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt through the air. I think the Iowa DL makes some big plays and Stanzi has another good day.
THE PICK: IOWA 24, WISCONSIN 14
#16 NEBRASKA (5-1, 1-1) AT #14 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)And now we come to perhaps the biggest "Prove Yourselves" game of the day. Nebraska has to prove that their 5-0 start wasn't a mirage built against dramatically inferior competition and that they can rebound from a gutting loss to Texas in a game that they'd had circled for months. Oklahoma State has to prove that their own 6-0 start isn't just the product of a really favorable schedule and that they can actually beat a good team. Oklahoma State was widely picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South and for fairly understandable reasons: they lost a ton of talent, including multi-year starter Zac Robinson at QB and all-everything WR Dez Bryant. But they returned RB Kendall Hunter (who battled multiple injuries last year on his way to a somewhat mediocre campaign) and they've slotted in QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon to replace Robinson and Bryant and barely skipped a beat. Blackmon, in particular, has been a revelation -- he's leading the NCAA in receiving yards (955) and touchdowns (12) and, yes, he's put up those numbers in just six games. On the other hand, Nebraska will be by far the nastiest defense Okie State has faced this year and they've absolutely stifled passing games all season. The question for Nebraska is how well their own offense can move the ball and score points; Texas completely shut them down and extinguished Taylor Martinez's Heisman buzz. But the Okie State defense is not quite the same thing as a Texas defense coached by Will Muschamp that has two weeks to prepare for the Martinez buzzsaw. When in doubt, side with the elite defense.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 20
NORTH CAROLINA (4-2, 2-1) AT MIAMI (4-2, 2-1) (ESPN2, 6:30pm EST)Before the season, there was some speculation that the ACC Coastal was going to emerge as the toughest division in college football. It had four ranked teams (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami), loads of talent, and high expectations. Midway through the season, we now know that was a lie; the SEC West is unquestionably the top division. But while the ACC Coastal has endured some pratfalls along the way (UNC's ongoing scandals, Virgina Tech's loss to James Madison, Georgia Tech's loss to Kansas, Miami's homefield disemboweling at the hands of Florida State), they've also more or less righted the ship and emerged as solid teams; they're all sitting at 4-2 or better and getting ready for the brutal round robin of games they're going to face against one another over the next month. Despite dealing with massive suspension-induced losses from the ongoing scandals that have engulfed their program, North Carolina has been looking pretty solid after their 0-2 start. Miami has looked unable to compete against foes with talent on par with their own; they lost to Ohio State in a game that was only close because of Ohio State's miserable special teams and got blown off their own field by Florida State. Their four wins have come against Florida A&M, a bad Pitt team, a bad Duke team, and a so-so Clemson team. Suffice to say, I don't really trust them.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA 24, MIAMI 17
#1 OKLAHOMA (6-0, 2-0) AT #11 MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)Oklahoma moved to the top of the initial BCS standings on the back of a 6-0 schedule against a slate of solid opponents (outside of their loss to the Sooners, Oklahoma's opponents are 23-10). The results haven't always been pretty (see: single-digit wins over Utah State, Cincinnati, and Air Force), but wins are the thing and Oklahoma's got 'em so far. Meanwhile, Missouri has quietly gone about its business and also sits at 6-0 and hosting one of the biggest games in their program's history (even with their recent success). Missouri's resume lacks any marquee wins (their best win is... San Diego State? Texas A&M? Illinois?), but they've beaten a collection of teams that has emerged as if not quite "good," at least "perfectly decent." That said, Oklahoma is a whole different beast than any of the teams they've played, especially since they seem to be clicking now. Earlier in the season, they might have screwed around with a not-totally-awful Iowa State team; instead, they obliterated them 52-0, exactly the way an elite team should. That's bad news for Missouri. Strangely, Missouri's success this season has been built on the back of a surprisingly stout defense, rather than the shoot 'em up affairs that constituted their success a few years ago. Can they use that and some homefield mojo to slow down Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and the rest of the Sooner offense? That's tough. The history of the last decade is that Bob Stoops wins big games in the league (it's just those pesky BCS bowl games that give him issues, plus Texas the last few years) and Gary Pinkel rarely does. It's hard to bet against that.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 34, MISSOURI 24
AIR FORCE (5-2, 3-1) AT #5 TCU (7-0, 3-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS College Sports)It's been a while since we've checked in with the non-BCS leagues and this is unquestionably the game of the day from the mid-major ranks. It would have been a match-up of top 25 teams if Air Force hadn't stubbed their toe last week at San Diego State, but as it is, it's still the first quasi-test TCU has faced since the season opener against Oregon State (or Baylor five weeks ago, if you think the Bears are legit). Since their splashy opening week win over Oregon State, TCU has mostly been minding their own business and beating the piss out of teams, especially since they opened up conference play a month ago -- they're 3-0 in Mountain West play and they've outscored their foes by an aggregate score of 103-3 (BYU got a pity FG on them last week). On the other hand, Colorado State, BYU, and Wyoming just aren't any good this year, either. Air Force isn't a great team, but they've emerged as a solid team this year; until last week's slip-up against SDSU, they'd beaten everyone in their path except Oklahoma (who they lost to just 27-24). They also pose a unique challenge for the TCU defense since they run the triple-option. Still, TCU seems too good on both sides of the ball to trip up at hoem against Air Force; this one might be close for a half or so, but TCU should pull away.
THE PICK: TCU 31, AIR FORCE 13
Friday, August 27, 2010
Big 12 Preview
2009 Standings
North
Nebraska Cornhuskers 10-4 (6-2)
Missouri Tigers 8-5 (4-4)
Kansas State Wildcats 6-6 (4-4)
Iowa State Cyclones 7-6 (3-5)
Colorado Buffaloes 3-9 (2-6)
Kansas Jayhawks 5-7 (1-7)
South
Texas Longhorns 13-1 (8-0)
Oklahoma State Cowboys 9-4 (6-2)
Texas Tech Red Raiders 9-4 (5-3)
Oklahoma Sooners 8-5 (5-3)
Texas A&M Aggies 6-7 (3-5)
Baylor Bears 4-8 (1-7)
Big 12 Championship Game: Texas 13 Nebraska 12
Returning Leaders: Passing
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jr (262 of 445 for 3593, 24 TD, 9 INT)
Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M, Sr (296 of 497 for 3579, 30 TD, 8 INT)
Taylor Potts, Texas Tech, Sr (309 of 470 for 3440, 22 TD, 13 INT)
Landry Jones, Oklahoma, Soph (261 of 449 for 3198, 26 TD, 14 INT)
Zac Lee, Nebraska, Sr (177 of 302 for 2143, 14 TD, 10 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
Daniel Thomas, Kansas St, Sr (247 carries for 1265 yds, 11 TD)
Alexander Robinson, Iowa St, Sr (231 carries for 1193 yds, 5 TD)
Roy Helu, Nebraska, Sr (220 carries for 1147 yds, 10 TD)
Baron Batch, Texas Tech, Sr (168 carries for 884 yds, 14 TD)
Derrick Washington, Missouri, Sr (190 carries for 865 yds, 10 TD)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma, Jr (89 rec for 1120 yds, 15 TD)
Scotty McKnight, Colorado, Sr (76 rec for 893 yds, 6 TD)
Alexander Torres, Texas Tech, Sr (67 rec for 806 yds, 6 TD)
Kendall Wright, Baylor, Jr (66 rec for 740 yds, 4 TD)
Detron Lewis, Texas Tech, Sr (65 rec for 844 yds, 6 TD)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Travis Lewis, Oklahoma, Jr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Trent Hunter, Texas A&M, Jr, S (95 total, 7.3 tackles/game)
Quinton Carter, Oklahoma, Sr, S (88 total, 6.7 tackles/game)
Drew Dudley, Kansas, Sr, LB (88 total, 7.3 tackles/game)
David Sims, Iowa State, Sr, S (88 total, 6.7 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Von Miller, Texas A&M, Sr, LB (16.5 sacks)
Aldon Smith, Missouri, Soph, DE (11.5)
Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma, Sr (11.0)
Jared Crick, Nebraska, Jr (9.5)
Sam Acho, Texas, Sr (7.0)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Blake Gideon, Texas, Jr, S (6 interceptions)
Tysyn Hartman, Kansas St, Jr, S (5)
David Sims, Iowa State, Sr, S (5)
Prince Amukamara, Nebraska, CB (5)
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 12 WITH THE ZEALOTS
Baylor Bears
Chris (Projection: #5 in South): So much is the effect of having Robert Griffin III back in a Bears uniform after his injury, that his presence alone helps them to jump Oklahoma St. and lead the team towards a quasi-relevant state. Now just remember he's only a sophomore.
Ross (Projection: #5 in South): They're the feel good story of the Big 12, between their long bowl drought and the fact that QB Robert Griffin is one of the most exciting players in college football -- or was, anyway, before he blew out his knee last year. Time will tell if he's able to regain his breathtaking pre-injury form. To get to a bowl this year, they're going to need to put up a ton of points, given all the holes they have on defense; good thing they return a slew of players on offense and get Griffin back to run the show. Really, their season is going to rise or fall on the condition of Griffin's knee; if he's all the way back, their offense should be very good and he may be able to lead them to six wins and the promised land of a bowl game. If he's not all the way back, it's probably another disappointing season in Waco.
Colorado Buffaloes
Ross (Projection: #4 in North): Dan Hawkins somehow survived to face another year as Colorado's head coach, but at least he has a lot of returning starters with him to try and get things turned around (or just send him out on a high note). They have ten back on offense (everyone but the TE) and seven back on defense (3/4 of the defensive line and secondary), so if Hawkins is ever going to get anything going at Colorado, it's probably going to be now. Too bad the schedule is such a bear: Georgia and Cal should be difficult challenges in the non-conference slate and the Big 12 road games are so challenging (Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska), it's hard to see them winning even one of those. 4-4 in the Big 12 might be a solid accomplishment for this team.
Chris (Projection: #3 in North): Dan Hawkins was supposed to revitalize Colorado Buffalo football. That was what he was brought in for. But 4 years and a 16-33 record later, it's apparent that the only reason he is still there is that he is too expensive to buy out for the Colorado Athletic Department. The real interesting this is that he finally decided to bench his son and make the dinner table at the Hawkins house a little more awkward. Although, he could be just trying to improve his son's life expectancy by getting him out of the way of charging defensive linemen that were allowed to pray on Buffalo QB's to the tune of 44 sacks last year. In all fairness, I do think this is the year Hawkins turns it around...a little. Why wouldn't it be with a team returning 15 starters and 7 in an above average D a year ago. Their schedule doesn't do them any favors in the record department, so I don't think they'll be going bowling, but it's so strong that it can prepare them for conference play.
Iowa State Cyclones
Chris (Projection: #5 in North): To be honest, this is again a case of little separation between the Cyclones and the Wildcats. Quarterback Austin Arnaud may be the difference between last and next to last for the Cyclones, as they return 7 other offensive starters around him. The real issue is that their suspect defense has a lot of new faces on it, so the offense will have to be on it's game week in and week out to keep from falling into the Big 12 North dungeon.
Ross (Projection: #6 in North): They return plenty on offense (starters at QB, RB, WR, and 3/5 of the OL), but returning just four starters on defense is going to put a lot of pressure on new faces to step up and stop the Big 12's many potent offenses. But the biggest problem is a schedule that puts Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech on the slate (not to mention challenging non-conference games against Iowa, Utah, and Northern Illinois), brings Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri to Ames and sends them to Colorado (trickier than it seems) for a road game. That schedule is just too daunting to see them amassing too many wins in 2010.
Kansas Jayhawks
Ross (Projection: #3 in North): There's a fair amount back on offense (7 players, including the entire offensive line), but there are a few glaring holes: namely, QB Todd Reesing, a multi-year starter, and his favorite targets, WR Dez Briscoe and WR Kerry Meier; that's a lot of production for the offense to replace. The defense returns six starters, so there are even more holes to fill on that side of the ball, but the schedule should help new coach Turner Gill get off to a hot start. They draw Baylor, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 South and their only really tough road game looks like a trip to Lincoln to take on Nebraska.
Chris (Projection: #4 in North): Never in my life have I seen a college football team go from so hot to so cold like Kansas did a year ago. After winning their first 5, the Jayhawks dropped their last 7, including a puzzling couple of decisions from the Mangino-man (who should now be able to successfully launch his career as the next Jared for Subway) that showed he knew he was on the way out and truly didn't care about his job anymore. Mangino sure picked the right time to leave though (well actually, by picked I mean he was fired), as Todd Reesing and the team built around him is now Kale Pick's team. Who? Yeah, that's the successor to Reesing. No offense to Turner Gill, but I think this team, with all the bad that Mangino left behind, will be too much of a project to turn around in one year...especially when only returning 11 starters.
Kansas State Wildcats
Ross (Projection: #5 in North): A team that was already lacking in talent now has to deal with returning just five starters on offense and six on defense; that's going to be tricky. With 4/5 of the offensive line back and a talented workhorse running back in Daniel Thomas, it's pretty clear what K-State is going to do on offense: run run and then run some more. The last thing a rebuilding and inexperienced team needs is a schedule short on easy home games, but that's exactly what K-State has: just three true home games (a fourth home game is in Kansas City against Iowa State) and they're against Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State. Winning either the Texas or Nebraska games is going to be very challenging, which is going to put a lot of pressure on a young team to pick up some wins on the road.
Chris (Projection: #6 in North): The Wildcats were 108th in the nation in passing a year ago, a stat that is likely to even fall further without a returning starter at receiver, tight end or quarterback. They will rely on Daniel Thomas and hope that a revamped defense which was very strong from a year ago will keep them in the Big 12 chase. But that's an awful lot of if's, and it is my belief that Kansas St. will become too one dimensional on offense and opponents will be quick to catch on.
Missouri Tigers
Chris (Projection: #2 in North): Anyone who thought that Mizzou was going to take a step back after Chase Daniel left was rudely awakened when they dismantled (but that word doesn't even do it justice) the fresh off a BCS bowl bid Illinois 37-9 in week 1. From that point on, Blaine Gabbert and Derrick Washington put on an offensive clinic. Guess what? They're back! Both of them. Big 12 D-coordinators will not sleep before their matchup with Missouri...or after them either. I believe in Missouri so much that if any other team not named Nebraska (okay, so not ANY other team, but the list of teams that would make me change that statement is short) was in their division, I would take them to win it.
Ross (Projection: #2 in North): Nebraska is the odds-on favorite in the B12 North, but if anyone can give them a run, it's Missouri, who returns eight starters on offense and defense, including returning stars at QB (Blaine Gabbert) and RB (Derrick Washington) and most of their offensive line and their entire defensive secondary. So the talent appears to be there. The schedule is challenging, though: they have a five-game stretch in the middle of the season (Colorado, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma, @ Nebraska, @ Texas Tech) that could derail things.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Chris (Projection: #1 in North): The Huskers were seconds away from a BCS bowl and an upset of the national runner-up, and seconds from an upset of a Virginia Tech team that won 10 games as well. That accounted for half of their losses a year ago. Back are 9 players on offense from a struggling unit a year ago, including their leading passer, rusher, and receiver. Also back is a strong core of 6 starters on a top-10 defense only led by one of the game's top defensive minds. The Huskers are primed for success this season and to follow up on their 2009 campaign to prove that it wasn't a fluke. Newsflash: It wasn't. If the Huskers can hold off the Tigers, they'll be heading to the Big 12 ship.
Ross (Projection: #1 in North): Losing Ndamukong Suh is unquestionably a massive blow to the defense and the entire team, but they have some other NFL-ready defensive stars (Jared Crick, Pierre Allen, Prince Amukamara) ready to step up and keep the defense as one of the top defenses in the league (and nation). Nine guys are back on an offense that was utterly wretched a year ago; hopefully another year of experience will allow them to blossom into, at least, competence. The Texas game is a lynchpin to their season and a win could springboard them to big things. Regardless, it's nigh-impossible to see anyone in the Big 12 North challenging them.
Oklahoma Sooners
Chris (Projection: #1 in South): The good news is that if Oklahoma somehow gives this race away, quarterback Landry Jones will be a shoe in for the 30th annual America's worst facial hair award. The bad news for the Big 12 South is that is unlikely to happen. Expect DeMarco Murray to absolutely DOMINATE the Big 12 this year en route to the conference's Offensive Player of the Year award. Just like Texas they don't bring a lot back, but just like Texas (or at least much like Texas) Oklahoma recruits seem to deliver in the clutch (unlike their coach Bob Stoops). The Sooners are ready to put behind them a year where their universe was turned upside down...and I think they will do it.
Ross (Projection: #2 in South): The loss of Bradford and Gresham so early last year meant that Oklahoma had to get a headstart on the post-Bradford/Gresham era, which should give them an advantage heading into this year. Landry Jones took his lumps as Bradford's replacement a year ago, but he came on strong at the end of the year and a full off-season of practice should have him ready to become the next incredibly prolific Oklahoma QB. They return a ton of other starters on offense, and while the defense needs a lot of patching up, defense tends to be Stoops' specialty. The bigger concern is the schedule, which includes some challenging non-conference games (Florida State, Air Force, and Cincinnati) and only three conference home games (since the Texas game is at the Cotton Bowl). Then again, if Oklahoma can get by Texas, there's no reason not to think that they could run the table in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Chris (Projection: #6 in South): Long season ahead for the Pokes...you know, full of things like Mike Gundy rants, and losing to Oklahoma, and being back at the bottom of the Big 12 totem pole. I'm sorry if nobody else sees it, but returning only 5 starters in this league lands you here. If you don't agree with me GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT! IT MAKES ME WANT TO PUKE!
Ross (Projection: #6 in South): This year we'll find out how well Mike Gundy has recruited since turning 40. They lost a ton of proven talent on offense and defense; until they show us how well they can replace guys like Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, and Russell Okung, it's reasonable to be skeptical of their prospects in 2010.
Texas Longhorns
Chris (Projection: #2 in South): I was SO close to giving this spot to Texas A&M, but just couldn't bring myself to it. That defense is horrid, no matter how many starters they return. Still if Texas' young squad should leave the door open for Jerrod Johnson to work his magic, you could see the Aggies overtaking the Horns in the standings. But, instead I'll go with conventional wisdom and say that the A&M defense will still be bad (you can't make THAT drastic of an improvement in one year), and I'll trust Mack Brown's recruits on getting the job done. What reason do we not have to trust this guy? He delivers!
Ross (Projection: #1 in South): The offense needs to be totally rebuilt and they lost some key performers on defense, too -- so why pick them to win the South? Like all the other elite teams, they reload and with Muschamp running the defense, it's pretty likely that he'll have another very good unit on the field. The offense is more of a question mark, but Garrett Gilbert is plenty talented (as he showed in the second half of the BCS title game last year). The best thing Texas has going for them is their schedule, which is paper-thin: they play only three true road games all year (@ Texas Tech, @ Nebraska, @ Kansas State) and it's really a two-game schedule (vs. Nebraska and Oklahoma). A split in those games and 11-1, 7-1 in the Big 12 looks very possible.
Texas A&M Aggies
Chris (Projection: #3 in South): Jerodd Johnson is one of the nation's best players, and he'll get to show his skills with a lot of skill position talent around him. However, there are two concerns at A&M. One, the new offensive tackles are both freshmen! Yikes! Johnson will have to use his athletic ability to evade pressure early on. Also, a defense that was just absolutely pathetic a year ago returns 10 starters but just like Callahan Brake Pads, won't offer you any guarantee. To me that spells Texas A&M in third...but one of the best 3rd teams in their division in the nation, rest assured.
Ross (Projection: #4 in South): It's a do or die year for Mike Sherman; the good news is that he finally has a talented and experienced team in place. The core of the offense is back, including QB Jerrod Johnson, who should be the best QB in the league. If they can fill a few holes along the offensive line, they should have an incredibly explosive offense. The defense also brings back nine starters, which would be really good news if they hadn't spent the better part of the last few years getting utterly torched and disgracing the unit's former "Wrecking Crew" moniker. The schedule is troubling, too, as they get all three of what could be the best teams in the Big 12 North (Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas).
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Chris (Projection: #4 in South): I like Texas Tech (or well what they did under Leach. It was a brilliant gameplan to beat teams). I like Tommy Tubberville. But as American Idol's Simon Cowell once said of a performer "You and Latin music go together about as well as Garlic and Ice Cream." That is the case here. Tubberville likes to run (evidenced by the Cadillac Williams/Ronnie Brown tandem). Texas Tech's pedigree is passing, and they were groomed over the last decade to do nothing else. So once again, I like both parties, but who doesn't see a fall with the system change and Tubberville at the helm? I just don't know if Tommy is the guy for the Red Raiders...but have faith in a more conventional job (a la not Mike Leach tries to throw a pass between every breath).
Ross (Projection: #3 in South): There's a lot of talent back on offense and a decent amount back on defense; if Mike Leach was still around, this might be a dark horse team to win the South, given the holes that Texas and Oklahoma have to fill. But with Leach gone and Tommy Tuberville in charge, this team is a total wildcard. While Tuberville claims he wants to keep the air raid passing game, given his past, it's hard not to see him dramatically increasing the importance of the running game -- and it's anyone's guess as to how that will go. On the plus side, they draw Iowa State and Colorado from the Big 12 North, which may be just enough to let them slide ahead of Texas A&M.
CFBZ Predicted Big 12 Finish
North
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers
2. Missouri Tigers
3. Colorado Buffaloes
4. Kansas Jayhawks
5. Kansas State Wildcats
6. Iowa State Cyclones
South
1. Oklahoma Sooners
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Texas A&M Aggies
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
5. (tie) Baylor Bears
5. (tie) Oklahoma State Cowboys
Big 12 Championship Game: Nebraska Cornhuskers over Oklahoma Sooners
North
Nebraska Cornhuskers 10-4 (6-2)
Missouri Tigers 8-5 (4-4)
Kansas State Wildcats 6-6 (4-4)
Iowa State Cyclones 7-6 (3-5)
Colorado Buffaloes 3-9 (2-6)
Kansas Jayhawks 5-7 (1-7)
South
Texas Longhorns 13-1 (8-0)
Oklahoma State Cowboys 9-4 (6-2)
Texas Tech Red Raiders 9-4 (5-3)
Oklahoma Sooners 8-5 (5-3)
Texas A&M Aggies 6-7 (3-5)
Baylor Bears 4-8 (1-7)
Big 12 Championship Game: Texas 13 Nebraska 12
Returning Leaders: Passing
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jr (262 of 445 for 3593, 24 TD, 9 INT)
Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M, Sr (296 of 497 for 3579, 30 TD, 8 INT)
Taylor Potts, Texas Tech, Sr (309 of 470 for 3440, 22 TD, 13 INT)
Landry Jones, Oklahoma, Soph (261 of 449 for 3198, 26 TD, 14 INT)
Zac Lee, Nebraska, Sr (177 of 302 for 2143, 14 TD, 10 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
Daniel Thomas, Kansas St, Sr (247 carries for 1265 yds, 11 TD)
Alexander Robinson, Iowa St, Sr (231 carries for 1193 yds, 5 TD)
Roy Helu, Nebraska, Sr (220 carries for 1147 yds, 10 TD)
Baron Batch, Texas Tech, Sr (168 carries for 884 yds, 14 TD)
Derrick Washington, Missouri, Sr (190 carries for 865 yds, 10 TD)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma, Jr (89 rec for 1120 yds, 15 TD)
Scotty McKnight, Colorado, Sr (76 rec for 893 yds, 6 TD)
Alexander Torres, Texas Tech, Sr (67 rec for 806 yds, 6 TD)
Kendall Wright, Baylor, Jr (66 rec for 740 yds, 4 TD)
Detron Lewis, Texas Tech, Sr (65 rec for 844 yds, 6 TD)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Travis Lewis, Oklahoma, Jr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Trent Hunter, Texas A&M, Jr, S (95 total, 7.3 tackles/game)
Quinton Carter, Oklahoma, Sr, S (88 total, 6.7 tackles/game)
Drew Dudley, Kansas, Sr, LB (88 total, 7.3 tackles/game)
David Sims, Iowa State, Sr, S (88 total, 6.7 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Von Miller, Texas A&M, Sr, LB (16.5 sacks)
Aldon Smith, Missouri, Soph, DE (11.5)
Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma, Sr (11.0)
Jared Crick, Nebraska, Jr (9.5)
Sam Acho, Texas, Sr (7.0)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Blake Gideon, Texas, Jr, S (6 interceptions)
Tysyn Hartman, Kansas St, Jr, S (5)
David Sims, Iowa State, Sr, S (5)
Prince Amukamara, Nebraska, CB (5)
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 12 WITH THE ZEALOTS
Baylor Bears
Chris (Projection: #5 in South): So much is the effect of having Robert Griffin III back in a Bears uniform after his injury, that his presence alone helps them to jump Oklahoma St. and lead the team towards a quasi-relevant state. Now just remember he's only a sophomore.
Ross (Projection: #5 in South): They're the feel good story of the Big 12, between their long bowl drought and the fact that QB Robert Griffin is one of the most exciting players in college football -- or was, anyway, before he blew out his knee last year. Time will tell if he's able to regain his breathtaking pre-injury form. To get to a bowl this year, they're going to need to put up a ton of points, given all the holes they have on defense; good thing they return a slew of players on offense and get Griffin back to run the show. Really, their season is going to rise or fall on the condition of Griffin's knee; if he's all the way back, their offense should be very good and he may be able to lead them to six wins and the promised land of a bowl game. If he's not all the way back, it's probably another disappointing season in Waco.
Colorado Buffaloes
Ross (Projection: #4 in North): Dan Hawkins somehow survived to face another year as Colorado's head coach, but at least he has a lot of returning starters with him to try and get things turned around (or just send him out on a high note). They have ten back on offense (everyone but the TE) and seven back on defense (3/4 of the defensive line and secondary), so if Hawkins is ever going to get anything going at Colorado, it's probably going to be now. Too bad the schedule is such a bear: Georgia and Cal should be difficult challenges in the non-conference slate and the Big 12 road games are so challenging (Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska), it's hard to see them winning even one of those. 4-4 in the Big 12 might be a solid accomplishment for this team.
Chris (Projection: #3 in North): Dan Hawkins was supposed to revitalize Colorado Buffalo football. That was what he was brought in for. But 4 years and a 16-33 record later, it's apparent that the only reason he is still there is that he is too expensive to buy out for the Colorado Athletic Department. The real interesting this is that he finally decided to bench his son and make the dinner table at the Hawkins house a little more awkward. Although, he could be just trying to improve his son's life expectancy by getting him out of the way of charging defensive linemen that were allowed to pray on Buffalo QB's to the tune of 44 sacks last year. In all fairness, I do think this is the year Hawkins turns it around...a little. Why wouldn't it be with a team returning 15 starters and 7 in an above average D a year ago. Their schedule doesn't do them any favors in the record department, so I don't think they'll be going bowling, but it's so strong that it can prepare them for conference play.
Iowa State Cyclones
Chris (Projection: #5 in North): To be honest, this is again a case of little separation between the Cyclones and the Wildcats. Quarterback Austin Arnaud may be the difference between last and next to last for the Cyclones, as they return 7 other offensive starters around him. The real issue is that their suspect defense has a lot of new faces on it, so the offense will have to be on it's game week in and week out to keep from falling into the Big 12 North dungeon.
Ross (Projection: #6 in North): They return plenty on offense (starters at QB, RB, WR, and 3/5 of the OL), but returning just four starters on defense is going to put a lot of pressure on new faces to step up and stop the Big 12's many potent offenses. But the biggest problem is a schedule that puts Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech on the slate (not to mention challenging non-conference games against Iowa, Utah, and Northern Illinois), brings Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri to Ames and sends them to Colorado (trickier than it seems) for a road game. That schedule is just too daunting to see them amassing too many wins in 2010.
Kansas Jayhawks
Ross (Projection: #3 in North): There's a fair amount back on offense (7 players, including the entire offensive line), but there are a few glaring holes: namely, QB Todd Reesing, a multi-year starter, and his favorite targets, WR Dez Briscoe and WR Kerry Meier; that's a lot of production for the offense to replace. The defense returns six starters, so there are even more holes to fill on that side of the ball, but the schedule should help new coach Turner Gill get off to a hot start. They draw Baylor, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 South and their only really tough road game looks like a trip to Lincoln to take on Nebraska.
Chris (Projection: #4 in North): Never in my life have I seen a college football team go from so hot to so cold like Kansas did a year ago. After winning their first 5, the Jayhawks dropped their last 7, including a puzzling couple of decisions from the Mangino-man (who should now be able to successfully launch his career as the next Jared for Subway) that showed he knew he was on the way out and truly didn't care about his job anymore. Mangino sure picked the right time to leave though (well actually, by picked I mean he was fired), as Todd Reesing and the team built around him is now Kale Pick's team. Who? Yeah, that's the successor to Reesing. No offense to Turner Gill, but I think this team, with all the bad that Mangino left behind, will be too much of a project to turn around in one year...especially when only returning 11 starters.
Kansas State Wildcats
Ross (Projection: #5 in North): A team that was already lacking in talent now has to deal with returning just five starters on offense and six on defense; that's going to be tricky. With 4/5 of the offensive line back and a talented workhorse running back in Daniel Thomas, it's pretty clear what K-State is going to do on offense: run run and then run some more. The last thing a rebuilding and inexperienced team needs is a schedule short on easy home games, but that's exactly what K-State has: just three true home games (a fourth home game is in Kansas City against Iowa State) and they're against Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State. Winning either the Texas or Nebraska games is going to be very challenging, which is going to put a lot of pressure on a young team to pick up some wins on the road.
Chris (Projection: #6 in North): The Wildcats were 108th in the nation in passing a year ago, a stat that is likely to even fall further without a returning starter at receiver, tight end or quarterback. They will rely on Daniel Thomas and hope that a revamped defense which was very strong from a year ago will keep them in the Big 12 chase. But that's an awful lot of if's, and it is my belief that Kansas St. will become too one dimensional on offense and opponents will be quick to catch on.
Missouri Tigers
Chris (Projection: #2 in North): Anyone who thought that Mizzou was going to take a step back after Chase Daniel left was rudely awakened when they dismantled (but that word doesn't even do it justice) the fresh off a BCS bowl bid Illinois 37-9 in week 1. From that point on, Blaine Gabbert and Derrick Washington put on an offensive clinic. Guess what? They're back! Both of them. Big 12 D-coordinators will not sleep before their matchup with Missouri...or after them either. I believe in Missouri so much that if any other team not named Nebraska (okay, so not ANY other team, but the list of teams that would make me change that statement is short) was in their division, I would take them to win it.
Ross (Projection: #2 in North): Nebraska is the odds-on favorite in the B12 North, but if anyone can give them a run, it's Missouri, who returns eight starters on offense and defense, including returning stars at QB (Blaine Gabbert) and RB (Derrick Washington) and most of their offensive line and their entire defensive secondary. So the talent appears to be there. The schedule is challenging, though: they have a five-game stretch in the middle of the season (Colorado, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma, @ Nebraska, @ Texas Tech) that could derail things.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Chris (Projection: #1 in North): The Huskers were seconds away from a BCS bowl and an upset of the national runner-up, and seconds from an upset of a Virginia Tech team that won 10 games as well. That accounted for half of their losses a year ago. Back are 9 players on offense from a struggling unit a year ago, including their leading passer, rusher, and receiver. Also back is a strong core of 6 starters on a top-10 defense only led by one of the game's top defensive minds. The Huskers are primed for success this season and to follow up on their 2009 campaign to prove that it wasn't a fluke. Newsflash: It wasn't. If the Huskers can hold off the Tigers, they'll be heading to the Big 12 ship.
Ross (Projection: #1 in North): Losing Ndamukong Suh is unquestionably a massive blow to the defense and the entire team, but they have some other NFL-ready defensive stars (Jared Crick, Pierre Allen, Prince Amukamara) ready to step up and keep the defense as one of the top defenses in the league (and nation). Nine guys are back on an offense that was utterly wretched a year ago; hopefully another year of experience will allow them to blossom into, at least, competence. The Texas game is a lynchpin to their season and a win could springboard them to big things. Regardless, it's nigh-impossible to see anyone in the Big 12 North challenging them.
Oklahoma Sooners
Chris (Projection: #1 in South): The good news is that if Oklahoma somehow gives this race away, quarterback Landry Jones will be a shoe in for the 30th annual America's worst facial hair award. The bad news for the Big 12 South is that is unlikely to happen. Expect DeMarco Murray to absolutely DOMINATE the Big 12 this year en route to the conference's Offensive Player of the Year award. Just like Texas they don't bring a lot back, but just like Texas (or at least much like Texas) Oklahoma recruits seem to deliver in the clutch (unlike their coach Bob Stoops). The Sooners are ready to put behind them a year where their universe was turned upside down...and I think they will do it.
Ross (Projection: #2 in South): The loss of Bradford and Gresham so early last year meant that Oklahoma had to get a headstart on the post-Bradford/Gresham era, which should give them an advantage heading into this year. Landry Jones took his lumps as Bradford's replacement a year ago, but he came on strong at the end of the year and a full off-season of practice should have him ready to become the next incredibly prolific Oklahoma QB. They return a ton of other starters on offense, and while the defense needs a lot of patching up, defense tends to be Stoops' specialty. The bigger concern is the schedule, which includes some challenging non-conference games (Florida State, Air Force, and Cincinnati) and only three conference home games (since the Texas game is at the Cotton Bowl). Then again, if Oklahoma can get by Texas, there's no reason not to think that they could run the table in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Chris (Projection: #6 in South): Long season ahead for the Pokes...you know, full of things like Mike Gundy rants, and losing to Oklahoma, and being back at the bottom of the Big 12 totem pole. I'm sorry if nobody else sees it, but returning only 5 starters in this league lands you here. If you don't agree with me GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT! IT MAKES ME WANT TO PUKE!
Ross (Projection: #6 in South): This year we'll find out how well Mike Gundy has recruited since turning 40. They lost a ton of proven talent on offense and defense; until they show us how well they can replace guys like Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, and Russell Okung, it's reasonable to be skeptical of their prospects in 2010.
Texas Longhorns
Chris (Projection: #2 in South): I was SO close to giving this spot to Texas A&M, but just couldn't bring myself to it. That defense is horrid, no matter how many starters they return. Still if Texas' young squad should leave the door open for Jerrod Johnson to work his magic, you could see the Aggies overtaking the Horns in the standings. But, instead I'll go with conventional wisdom and say that the A&M defense will still be bad (you can't make THAT drastic of an improvement in one year), and I'll trust Mack Brown's recruits on getting the job done. What reason do we not have to trust this guy? He delivers!
Ross (Projection: #1 in South): The offense needs to be totally rebuilt and they lost some key performers on defense, too -- so why pick them to win the South? Like all the other elite teams, they reload and with Muschamp running the defense, it's pretty likely that he'll have another very good unit on the field. The offense is more of a question mark, but Garrett Gilbert is plenty talented (as he showed in the second half of the BCS title game last year). The best thing Texas has going for them is their schedule, which is paper-thin: they play only three true road games all year (@ Texas Tech, @ Nebraska, @ Kansas State) and it's really a two-game schedule (vs. Nebraska and Oklahoma). A split in those games and 11-1, 7-1 in the Big 12 looks very possible.
Texas A&M Aggies
Chris (Projection: #3 in South): Jerodd Johnson is one of the nation's best players, and he'll get to show his skills with a lot of skill position talent around him. However, there are two concerns at A&M. One, the new offensive tackles are both freshmen! Yikes! Johnson will have to use his athletic ability to evade pressure early on. Also, a defense that was just absolutely pathetic a year ago returns 10 starters but just like Callahan Brake Pads, won't offer you any guarantee. To me that spells Texas A&M in third...but one of the best 3rd teams in their division in the nation, rest assured.
Ross (Projection: #4 in South): It's a do or die year for Mike Sherman; the good news is that he finally has a talented and experienced team in place. The core of the offense is back, including QB Jerrod Johnson, who should be the best QB in the league. If they can fill a few holes along the offensive line, they should have an incredibly explosive offense. The defense also brings back nine starters, which would be really good news if they hadn't spent the better part of the last few years getting utterly torched and disgracing the unit's former "Wrecking Crew" moniker. The schedule is troubling, too, as they get all three of what could be the best teams in the Big 12 North (Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas).
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Chris (Projection: #4 in South): I like Texas Tech (or well what they did under Leach. It was a brilliant gameplan to beat teams). I like Tommy Tubberville. But as American Idol's Simon Cowell once said of a performer "You and Latin music go together about as well as Garlic and Ice Cream." That is the case here. Tubberville likes to run (evidenced by the Cadillac Williams/Ronnie Brown tandem). Texas Tech's pedigree is passing, and they were groomed over the last decade to do nothing else. So once again, I like both parties, but who doesn't see a fall with the system change and Tubberville at the helm? I just don't know if Tommy is the guy for the Red Raiders...but have faith in a more conventional job (a la not Mike Leach tries to throw a pass between every breath).
Ross (Projection: #3 in South): There's a lot of talent back on offense and a decent amount back on defense; if Mike Leach was still around, this might be a dark horse team to win the South, given the holes that Texas and Oklahoma have to fill. But with Leach gone and Tommy Tuberville in charge, this team is a total wildcard. While Tuberville claims he wants to keep the air raid passing game, given his past, it's hard not to see him dramatically increasing the importance of the running game -- and it's anyone's guess as to how that will go. On the plus side, they draw Iowa State and Colorado from the Big 12 North, which may be just enough to let them slide ahead of Texas A&M.
CFBZ Predicted Big 12 Finish
North
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers
2. Missouri Tigers
3. Colorado Buffaloes
4. Kansas Jayhawks
5. Kansas State Wildcats
6. Iowa State Cyclones
South
1. Oklahoma Sooners
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Texas A&M Aggies
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
5. (tie) Baylor Bears
5. (tie) Oklahoma State Cowboys
Big 12 Championship Game: Nebraska Cornhuskers over Oklahoma Sooners
Friday, June 4, 2010
Pre-Season Preview: Missouri Tigers
2009 Record: 8-5 (4-4 in Big 12)
2009 Bowl: Texas Bowl (lost to Navy 35 to 13)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: Not Ranked
Head Coach: Gary Pinkel (67-46 at Missouri, 140-83-3 Overall)
Non-Conference Schedule: Illinois (9/4), McNeese St (9/11), San Diego St (9/18), Miami Ohio (9/25)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 29.0 points per game (6th in Big 12)
Rushing Yards/Game: 127 (8th in Big 12)
Passing Yards/Game: 285 (4th in Big 12)
Total Yards/Game: 412 (6th in Big 12)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 25.4 points per game (8th in Big 12)
Rushing Yards/Game: 118 (6th in Big 12)
Passing Yards/Game: 251 (11th in Big 12)
Total Yards/Game: 370 (8th in Big 12)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +0.31 per game (4th in Big 12)
Penalties: 55 yards per game (3rd in Big 12)
Returning Starters
Offense: 9
Defense: 9
Kicker/Punter: 1
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Blaine Gabbert, Jr (262 of 445 for 3593 yds, 24 TD, 9 INT, 276 ypg)
Rushing: RB Derrick Washington, Sr (190 carries for 865 yds, 10 TD, 4.5 ypc, 66 ypg)
Receiving: WR Jerrell Jackson, Jr (37 rec, 458 yds, 2 TD, 2.8 rec/game)
Tackles: LB Andrew Gachkar, Sr (80), LB Will Ebner, Jr (78)
Sacks: DL Aldon Smith, Soph (11.5)
Interceptions: DB Kevin Rutland, Sr (2)
Phil Steele All-Big 12 Pre-Season
TE Andrew Jones (First Team)
C Tim Barnes (First Team)
QB Blaine Gabbert (Second Team)
DE Aldon Smith (Second Team)
CB Carl Gettis (Second Team)
K Grant Ressel (Second Team)
OT Dan Hoch (Third Team)
RB Derrick Washington (Fourth Team)
OT Elvis Fisher (Fourth Team)
LB Andrew Gachkar (Fourth Team)
LB Will Ebner (Fourth Team)
S Jasper Simmons (Fourth Team)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Lindy's: Not Ranked
Mark Schlabach: Not Ranked
Rivals: Not Ranked
Scout: Not Ranked
Sporting News: #33
Sports Illustrated: Not Ranked
Athlon Sports: #21
2010 Pre-Season Big 12 North Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #2
Bowl Prediction:
Athlon Sports: Insight Bowl (vs Michigan)
Missouri started out last year 4-0 and then went 4-4 in Big 12 play. They are just one year removed from posting back to back 10 win seasons. Can they get back over the hump this year? Missouri Blog Rock M Nation gives us the run down on the state of Missouri football.
2009 Bowl: Texas Bowl (lost to Navy 35 to 13)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: Not Ranked
Head Coach: Gary Pinkel (67-46 at Missouri, 140-83-3 Overall)
Non-Conference Schedule: Illinois (9/4), McNeese St (9/11), San Diego St (9/18), Miami Ohio (9/25)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 29.0 points per game (6th in Big 12)
Rushing Yards/Game: 127 (8th in Big 12)
Passing Yards/Game: 285 (4th in Big 12)
Total Yards/Game: 412 (6th in Big 12)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 25.4 points per game (8th in Big 12)
Rushing Yards/Game: 118 (6th in Big 12)
Passing Yards/Game: 251 (11th in Big 12)
Total Yards/Game: 370 (8th in Big 12)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +0.31 per game (4th in Big 12)
Penalties: 55 yards per game (3rd in Big 12)
Returning Starters
Offense: 9
Defense: 9
Kicker/Punter: 1
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Blaine Gabbert, Jr (262 of 445 for 3593 yds, 24 TD, 9 INT, 276 ypg)
Rushing: RB Derrick Washington, Sr (190 carries for 865 yds, 10 TD, 4.5 ypc, 66 ypg)
Receiving: WR Jerrell Jackson, Jr (37 rec, 458 yds, 2 TD, 2.8 rec/game)
Tackles: LB Andrew Gachkar, Sr (80), LB Will Ebner, Jr (78)
Sacks: DL Aldon Smith, Soph (11.5)
Interceptions: DB Kevin Rutland, Sr (2)
Phil Steele All-Big 12 Pre-Season
TE Andrew Jones (First Team)
C Tim Barnes (First Team)
QB Blaine Gabbert (Second Team)
DE Aldon Smith (Second Team)
CB Carl Gettis (Second Team)
K Grant Ressel (Second Team)
OT Dan Hoch (Third Team)
RB Derrick Washington (Fourth Team)
OT Elvis Fisher (Fourth Team)
LB Andrew Gachkar (Fourth Team)
LB Will Ebner (Fourth Team)
S Jasper Simmons (Fourth Team)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Lindy's: Not Ranked
Mark Schlabach: Not Ranked
Rivals: Not Ranked
Scout: Not Ranked
Sporting News: #33
Sports Illustrated: Not Ranked
Athlon Sports: #21
2010 Pre-Season Big 12 North Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #2
Bowl Prediction:
Athlon Sports: Insight Bowl (vs Michigan)
Missouri started out last year 4-0 and then went 4-4 in Big 12 play. They are just one year removed from posting back to back 10 win seasons. Can they get back over the hump this year? Missouri Blog Rock M Nation gives us the run down on the state of Missouri football.
What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the team?
Strengths: Offensively, Missouri returns perhaps the top quarterback in the conference in Blaine Gabbert. The 6-5 junior-to-be was hampered by an ankle injury sustained at the start of a three-game losing streak against the three toughest teams on Missouri's schedule last season. But Gabbert showed in the spring that his deceptive wheels have returned to complement an arm that has NFL scouts drooling. Defensively, Missouri loses Sean Weatherspoon but returns an incredibly stout linebacking corps. No matter how the depth chart shakes out, three players out of Will Ebner, Luke Lambert, Zaviar Gooden, Andrew Gachkar, Josh Tatum and Donovan Bonner are going to get short-shifted in the Games Started column. Missouri's entire second linebacking team might be able to start at some of the conference's cellar dwellers.
Weaknesses: This biggest question remains in the defensive backfield. There wasn't a whole lot of attrition in the secondary in the offseason, but then again, those returning were part of one of the conference's most beleaguered units. On the other side of the ball, the graduation of Danario Alexander after the most productive receiving season in Missouri history leaves a tremendous opportunity open for a number of unproven receivers with a bit of a reputation for drops.
Looking at the schedule who will be the first major test and why?
I HATE being "Presumptuous Non-Conference Guy," but Missouri should conceivably be 4-0 after non-conference play. Ron Zook's Hindenburg impression at Illinois has left Missouri with arguably the most manageable non-conference set in the Big 12 this season, opening with Illinois, McNeese State, San Diego State, and Miami of Ohio. You could make a case that the Big 12 opener is always a major test, but Missouri should be heavily favored at home against a Colorado team the Tigers have thoroughly dominated for the last three seasons. That brings us to Oct. 16, when the Tigers travel to College Station to face Texas A&M, who is rapidly developing into a sexy sleeper in media circles this offseason. They should represent the first major test, no doubt, as Missouri embarks on a litmus test of a four-game set that includes A&M, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas Tech in consecutive weeks.
What team on the schedule do you fear the most?
I don't know that fear is the right word. I will say this: Missouri is capable of beating every team on its schedule. Now, this in NO way means I think Missouri should/will beat every team on the schedule. I'm not sure you ever feel comfortable in road games at Texas A&M and Texas Tech. Missouri would love to erase the "Pinkel has never beaten OU" factoid on homecoming in October against yet another talented Sooner team. And while I again acknowledge that "fear" isn't necessarily the proper term here, the entire season hinges on the Oct. 30 game against Nebraska in Lincoln. There's no question the road to the Big 12 North runs through the Sea of Red. I don't think there's any fear involved, but if there's one team or one game that Missouri is going to give the utmost respect, that's going to be it.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
Who is "nobody" in this situation? Those who are REALLY plugged into college football and/or the Big 12 are well aware of what defensive end Aldon Smith brought to Missouri last year. Smith missed 2008, taking a redshirt because of academic eligibility issues all the while coaches said he would have been on the field if possible. They raved about his talent for a full season before he finally got turned loose in 2009. He's built at a very lanky 6'5" with a great burst upfield, which led to 11.5 sacks and a place on the Freshman All-American Team last season. With Sean Weatherspoon out of the picture, the laser pointers of opposing offensive coordinators in film rooms are now squarely on Smith.
Who is the best offensive player on the team?
It's a copout answer, but it has to be quarterback Blaine Gabbert, especially now that he can actually use his plant leg again. The hope is that his gifted right arm will be accompanied by growth in reading defenses as he enters a junior season that could be his final at Missouri if he plays up to his potential.
Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?
How do you define "impactful" in this case? Because, technically, cornerback Robert Steeples was most impactful last season when Nebraska's Niles Paul beat him for a deep touchdown to jumpstart the Huskers' rally past Missouri in Columbia. Or you could say it was cornerback Carl Gettis, whose injury earlier in the game put Steeples on the field. As far as "impact" is concerned, lest we not forget that if Missouri holds on to win in that Thursday night monsoon, both Missouri and Nebraska finish 5-3 and the Missouri heads to JerryWorld for the Big 12 Title on the strength of that tiebreaker. Impact works both ways. Aldon Smith is the most talented. CAT scans can attest to the "impact" Will Ebner has on ballcarriers. Safety Jasper Simmons is perhaps the key cog, as he'll be charged with shoring up defensive backfield issues from a leadership position in the secondary. Gettis and fellow senior corner Kevin Rutland could be the two most important pieces. As they go, so may the team. So take your pick as to what you mean by impactful, because as you can see, there's no easy answer.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?
Whoever is the weakest link in that Missouri secondary: Gettis, Simmons, Rutland and any of the candidates for the safety spot opposite Simmons. Whichever one finds themselves bringing up the rear needs to step it up. That likely won't be the same person week after week, but whoever it is holds the key to the next level.
Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
The newcomer we're most excited about will barely see the field, and that's early-enrolled true freshman quarterback James Franklin, who appears to have the inside track to the No. 2 job and the reins to the offense in future seasons. The freshmen with the most impact, though, will likely be the trio of incoming 4-star receiver recruits: Marcus Lucas, Bud Sasser and Jimmie Hunt. The departure of Alexander, mentioned above, means there will be a ton of pass attempts looking for new homes. Who will demand them? Stay tuned.
Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
He doesn't really fall into the above categories, but I'll just tell you to keep an ear out for the name Zaviar Gooden, Mizzou's newest starting linebacker. He runs like a safety with the size of a linebacker, and his legend only grew when he ran the fastest 40-time on the team during the winter. His emergence at linebacker is the exact reason why media types and those outside the program are the only ones worrying about how Mizzou will replace Sean Weatherspoon.
Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?
Visit Rock M Nation for all your Missouri Tigers news, rumors and analysis. You can also follow them on Twitter @rockmnation.
Next Up: Kansas State Wildcats
2010 Previews
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, West Virginia Mountaineers
Big Ten- Michigan Wolverines, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Northwestern Wildcats, Purdue Boilermakers
Conference USA- Houston Cougars, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
MAC- Buffalo Bulls, Temple Owls
Mountain West- Utah Utes
Pac-10- Oregon Ducks, USC Trojans, Washington Huskies
Sun Belt- Troy Trojans
WAC- New Mexico State Aggies
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