This Week In College Football: Iowa, Recruiting, Paul Johnson, Muschamp and Herschel

Iowa Hawkeyes Hospitalized

Thirteen Iowa football players were hospitalized this week with rhabdomyolysis as a result of winter workouts. Rhabdomyolysis is defined as a rare, but serious, medical condition in which skeletal muscle fibers rapidly breakdown and release proteins into the bloodstream. It's characterized by profound muscle weakness and tenderness, and brown-colored urine.The condition could lead to kidney failure, arrthymias, and death if not treated quickly. So needless to say, this was a pretty big deal. Thirteen kids in the hospital on one team, with no real commonalities in class or position. The Head Coach is out on the road recruiting and you have a lot of pissed off parents demanding answers. Not a pretty site and a mess for the Hawkeyes program which has been dealing with a lot of adversity lately. There were a lot of questions and there still remains many. Tox screens have reportedly came back negative. As of Friday, five of the players were out of the hospital. Most teams go through very strenuous work outs in the off-season and that will continue but hopefully teams will learn about the dangers of having too strenuous of work-outs after extended lay-offs. This is a story we will continue to watch and hopefully everything will work out for those afflicted in the Iowa program. 


Recruiting Update

NSD (National Signing Day) is February 2nd. For those of you that are calendar challenged that's this coming Wednesday! You can simply flip on the 4-letter network on that day at any time and I'm sure you will get your fill of recruiting. One team that is really coming on strong, much to my delight, is the Georgia Bulldogs. They were the big winner last week when they landed TE Jay Rome (ESPNU #18) and WR/DB Malcolm Mitchell (ESPNU #45). It was more good news this week when DE Ray Drew (ESPNU #13) made his verbal commitment to Georgia on Friday. Drew is a 6'5, 253 lb 5-star prospect that looks like he can make an immediate impact (not that he's going to be a starter Day 1 but he should get some burn). He will be wearing #47, which was worn by Georgia legend David Pollock. Drew looks to play OLB like Justin Houston did and could also play some DE in the 3-4. Earlier in the week Georgia had also gotten a commitment from the top OL in the state, Xzavier Ward. He's ranked as a 4-star guy from ESPN (and 3-stars from Rivals and Scout) and is listed as #9 on the AJC Fab 50 (basically a list of the top 50 recruits in the state of Georgia). Georgia currently has 7 of the top 12 players in the Fab 50 and could get an 8th on NSD. Georgia has also come out of nowhere to be in the running for DE Jeffrey Pagan, ESPNU #53, who recently de-committed from Clemson (he also previously de-committed from Florida so you might not want to get too excited about him until he signs his name on the line) and ESPNU #150 OL Antonio Richardson. Between those guys and NT John Jenkins and RB Isaiah Crowell it will be a very interested Wed for Georgia fans. The MVP of this recruiting run for Georgia has been Mike Bobo. He is winning South Georgia against some very good recruiters.

ESPNU#28 RB Savon Huggins made his decision on Friday and he picked Rutgers over North Carolina. Huggins becomes the first top-rated New Jersey recruit landed by Rutgers in the Greg Schiano era. After a very disappointing 2010 for Rutgers this could be a spark that they need. Rutgers is currently listed as #30 on the rivals list of top teams but they are second behind only Charlie Strong and Louisville in the Big East.


Paul Johnson's Double Standard

While we are on recruiting let's talk a little Georgia Tech and Paul Johnson. Before I get into this let me say that I think Paul Johnson is a great offensive coach but I just don't understand him on this point. On Thursday Paul Johnson rescinded his scholarship offer from DT Tre Jackson. He did this because Jackson, who committed to Tech in October, has started to heat up and has gotten some calls from schools such as FSU and was going to take a visit to see what they offered (no not in the Cecil Newton sense). Well, Paul did not like this as he has a rule that once you verbally commit to Tech that you are not allowed to visit other schools or your scholarship offer will be rescinded. I have a couple of issues with this. The biggest issue I have is that Paul has no problem talking to kids that are verbally committed to other schools and having them take visits to Tech because if they are willing to come on a visit then he doesn't consider them committed to that school. So he has no problem taking a kid who breaks his commitment from one school to accept his but he doesn't want to be rejected by someone who might be thinking of changing his commitment. I was able to listen to 790theZone a bit on Friday and all of the Tech fans that called in did not like way Johnson was handling this. In my eyes, Johnson needs to realize that he coaches at Georgia Tech- not Alabama or USC or Florida or Texas (a school that basically recruits itself). Johnson needs all the players he can get, especially on defense where Tech has not been good at all in the last two years, and in this era of college football and recruiting coaches have to re-recruit guys that have already committed. Paul Johnson needs to wake up and spend some time re-recruiting instead of giving up due to fear of rejection. You coach at Georgia Tech, the last time I checked it's not exactly recruiting itself and while some players go to the NFL it's not a pipeline to the NFL. Re-recruiting is part of the game now and if you aren't willing to do it then you aren't a good recruiter and will suffer on the field.


Will Muschamp's First Tough Call

Florida CB Janoris Jenkins was recently charged with possession of marijuana. This was his second brush with the law in the last two years as he also was arrested in May of 2009 when he resisted arrest. During Urban Meyer's reign at Florida there were a lot of off-the-field issues. When Will Muschamp took over here's what he had to say about "The Florida Way":

“There's a certain thing that I'm going to refer to as the Florida Way, and that's the way they need to act and that's the way they need to represent our university...I'm going to demand that and I think that you'll understand in time that that's something that's very important to me...When you walk into a home and you talk about being a student-athlete at the University of Florida, I talk in terms of I want all of our student-athletes to come into our program to be a better person for having been at Florida. And I'm not just talking from a football standpoint. I'm talking about the off-the-field things.”

Sounds good, there is a new sheriff in town and Muschamp is not gonna take any ish. But wait...your best defensive player just got busted for pot and it's not the first time he's been in trouble with the law! So what do you do in your first "player issue" decision? What do you do that will make a statement to your players about the new direction of your team and "The Florida Way"? Muschamp says he will handle the situation "internally at this time." Of course, you will because that's the real Florida way. It's easy to talk the talk, but Muschamp is yet to walk the walk. You can't change a culture by ignoring it and hoping it goes away. I'm sure Florida would have really missed him for the Florida Atlantic and UAB games but I guess Muschamp really thinks they need him to win those games. Just wait until that second string LB screws up though, he's gonna pay.

Herschel Walker

So it's not technically College Football....on Saturday night Herschel Walker made his second entrance into the Octagon and just overwhelmed his opponent, Scott Carson. Herschel jumped on Carson early and took him down with a right hand and then stayed on top of him and controlled him with punches. Carson tried to get back to his feet and Walker continued his barrage until the referee stopped the fight. Let's not kid ourselves, Carson is not a "name" in MMA and is still a hand-picked opponent for Herschel but it was impressive seeing Herschel's progression since his last fight as he looked a lot more comfortable and was a lot more aggressive. It will be interesting to see what happens as Herschel continues to fight tougher guys.

Iowa Hawkeyes: 2010 Exit Survey

2010 CFBZ Prediction: 2nd Place in Big Ten
2010 Actual Finish: Tied for 4th Place in Big Ten (8-5, 4-4)

2010 was a year of high expectations for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Coming off an 11-2 record we had then ranked #7 in our Pre-Season poll. Sports Illustrated pegged then as #6 in their College Football Preview. Iowa started off 7-2 losing by 7 at Arizona and by 1 to Wisconsin. But then the season took a turn for the worse and Iowa finished the regular season by dropping 3 consecutive games (at Northwestern, vs Ohio State and the killer at Minnesota) to finish 7-5. Iowa got a little bit of redemption by beating a ranked Missouri team in the Insight Bowl to finish off the year at 8-5. We reached out to our friend Ross from Black Heart Gold Pants to get his take on the 2010 and get a quick look into 2011.


In our Pre-Season Preview you picked Iowa to go 10-2. They looked well on their way to that until the Northwestern game. What went wrong on the way to 8-5?

Injuries took their toll on defense (especially at linebacker, where Iowa was down to a pair of freshmen for much of the last month of the season), but the biggest problem was an inability to make enough plays on offense and defense. The defense typically played well for roughly 56 minutes in the losses, but gave up back-breaking drives late in the fourth quarter in all five of the losses. That was hard to watch. Still, in many cases the defense was put in those bad late-game spots by an ineffective offense; against three of the worst defenses in the Big Ten (Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota) the Iowa offense could muster only 18 points, 17 points, and 17 points (the 24 they scored against Minnesota was aided by a kick return TD). That's just pathetic production out of an offense that was loaded with experience and talent.

If you could have a "re-do" for any game which game would it be?

With five losses it's so hard to pick just one... but it has to be either the Wisconsin or Northwestern losses and if you put a gun to my head, I'd probably go with the Northwestern game. The Wisconsin loss was painful and eminently winnable, but it did come against a team that wound up being very good and Iowa managed to rebound with two wins afterwards. The Northwestern loss effectively killed any hope of a Big Ten championship, killed whatever momentum had been regained after the Wisconsin loss, and seemed to put Iowa in a funk for much of its next two games. And it only happened because of a pair of 80+ yard drives in the fourth quarter -- just brutal.

Who were the most surprising players for Iowa this year?

The most surprising player in a good way was probably freshman middle linebacker James Morris who was pressed into service by multiple injuries to the LB corps and wound up developing into a solid option as the season progressed. He struggled in pass coverage, but he displayed great instincts and athleticism and it should be a lot of fun to watch him develop for the next few years. The most surprising player in a bad way was probably senior defensive end Adrian Clayborn. He didn't have a bad year and he did have to deal with multiple double-teams and offenses scheming against him, but he failed to live up to the considerable hype -- or the production he displayed a year ago. He had a fine career at Iowa, but his final season was one to forget, unfortunately.

Who are you most looking forward to watching next year?

This one is easy. After the breakout performance he had in the Insight Bowl, I can't wait to watch more of Marcus Coker next year. Iowa had used a patchwork rotation of running backs for the past two years to get passable production out of the position, but they haven't had a stud running back since Shonn Greene took his talents to the NFL two years ago. Coker looks like he has the ability to be that stud running back. He has things to work on (lowering his pad level, for one), but he already displays immense power (including a wicked stiff-arm) and impressive speed for a back his size. With a full off-season of practice and conditioning, plus an offensive line that returns 3-4 starters, he could have a huge season next year. But no matter what it will be fun to watch him run over (or past, if possible) opposing defenders.

Iowa got placed in the Big Ten division with Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern. How do you like your chances in that division and what does Iowa need to do this off-season to put itself in position to win a Big Ten Championship?

In 2011, Iowa will have to deal with some significant rebuilding (there are key losses at QB, WR, RB, TE, DE, DT, LB, and S), but the thing that gives me hope that Iowa might be able to make some noise in their new division is threefold. One, they return a ton of experience along the offensive line and strong offensive line play has been at the key to all of Iowa's good seasons over the last decade. Two, they'll have a lot of new faces -- but many of those new faces have seen some time over the past few years and there's definitely some talent among the new faces... it's just not experienced yet. Three, the division itself looks to be in quite a bit of turmoil. Michigan and Minnesota could be deep in their own rebuilding efforts. Michigan State loses key players at WR and LB -- and benefited from a very fortuitous schedule this year. Nebraska will be good, but they lose key players in the secondary, have an inconsistent offense, and have to navigate a brutal schedule. Northwestern will be dangerous so long as QB Dan Persa returns to 100% health, but it's difficult to take them seriously as a legit contender until they display a more consistent running game and defense. So the division looks wide open, which could be to Iowa's benefit. The two most important things Iowa needs to do are identify and develop new starters at QB and along the defensive line. Iowa lives and dies by its line play and while the offensive line should be fine, the defensive line will be breaking in 2-3 new starters. James Vandenberg is the likely starter at QB and he's looked promising in bursts, but replacing Stanzi's leadership will still be difficult. The sooner Iowa can get those positions sorted out, the better their odds of being a surprise contender in 2011 will be.

Five Questions: Big Ten Edition

There is a 4-way log jam at the top of the Big Ten. Who is the best team?

Alex: Even after tanking against Iowa, Michigan State has a chance to slip into the Rose Bowl. Iowa/Ohio State is the toughest game any of these teams have to face, with Michigan State/Penn State a close second. If Michigan State were to blow the game Wisconsin is Pasadena bound. However to answer the question I still feel Iowa is the best team in the Big 10 in the slimmest of margins over Wisconsin.

J Martin: My instinct is to say Ohio State is still the "best" team by virtue of having the most talent of anybody in the conference.  However, they lost convincingly to by far the best team they've played and haven't been challenged otherwise, so I feel like I don't really know this team as well as the others.  Conversely, there's a fair amount of empirical evidence supporting Wisconsin as the best of the bunch.  They thumped OSU at home, then went on the road and edged out Iowa on the road in consecutive weeks.  That's awfully impressive.

Kevin: I've got Wisconsin. They lost to Michigan State but since then they have beat Ohio State and Iowa. Ohio State hasn't beaten anybody and Iowa has 2 losses. If Iowa routes Ohio State I might be persuaded to change my opinion.

Ross: TBD until after the Iowa-Ohio State game, but right now it's either Iowa or Wisconsin.  Wisconsin went 2-1 against the other three teams, losing fairly badly to MSU but getting an impressive win over OSU and winning a squeaker over Iowa.  Iowa has the most impressive win of the lot with their 37-6 beatdown of MSU, but they also lost that game to Wisconsin.  Gun to my head right now I'd probably say Wisconsin by a hair.

RichRod is 6-3 and Ron Zook is 5-4. Will they be retained or shown the door?

Alex: I do not feel as if either coach should be shown the door. They have beaten the teams they should have, and lost to the upper echelon of the Big 10. I have never felt that either team was ready to break out of the middle tier. Illinois can still be an 8-win team as it has a better defense and no offensive juggernauts left in the schedule. Giving Michigan 65 points was just an anomaly, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Fresno State will not touch that figure. Michigan is looking at a 7 or 8 win season. Wisconsin is a loss, Purdue is a win and Ohio State is an unknown. Michigan is tired of getting beaten on by the Buckeyes and they might just make a big splash in the Ohio State pond, which would lock RichRod in for another season.

J Martin: I think both of those guys are going to stick around.  Rodriguez probably needs to beat Purdue this weekend just to be sure, but he's at least done the minimum amount necessary to keep his job.  Plus, he's got Denard coming back, and he can sell his ability to maximize his talents as opposed to starting over with a new coach and a new offensive philosophy.  Zook isn't quite there yet, but I feel pretty good about his odds of beating Minnesota and maybe even going out west and beating Fresno.  They should probably just make Paul Petrino head coach, though.

Kevin: I do think they both deserve a chance to come back and build on what they have accomplished so far this year (barring a complete collapse at the end of the year). 

Ross: Both will be retained.  Rodriguez should win at least seven games this regular season (they ought to beat Purdue this week) and they could certainly win a bowl game for an 8th total win, depending on the match-up.  It's also not completely unreasonable that they could pull off an upset of Wisconsin or Ohio State, given their incredibly explosive offense.  Either way, 7-8 wins and one of the nation's best offenses should get Rodriguez another year -- provided he agrees to make some changes on defense.  Zook will be retained with a few more wins -- which seems like with three more games against Minnesota, Northwestern, and Fresno State.  With a bowl game, they could win nine games, which would be remarkable.  As it is, a 7-5 regular season seems like a good bet -- and that's good progress after the last two disastrous seasons.

Who is the Player of the Year in the Big 10 so far?

Alex: Denard Robinson from Michigan. This will change by years end but he got Michigan off to a rocketing start which may well help Rich stay in Ann Arbor. Robinson is currently 1st in Rushing, 2nd in Total Offense, 6th in Passing and 7th in scoring. There is not one Big 10 player that can boast such numbers. The fact that he is out with an injury is what will cost him this title by years end, but there is no way to deny him the pole position as we stand in early November.

J Martin: Denard, of course.  He's very impressive for a guy who's probably only logged about 6 games worth of field time.

Kevin: From a statistics stand point Denard looks very good but I have a problem picking a "Player of the Year" from a team that is 2-3 in the conference. So it's John Clay of Wisconsin. Leads the league in rushing TDs and is 2nd to only Denard in yards rushing. 

Ross: It's Denard Robinson and it's not even close -- 118/186, 1814 passing yards, 13/7 TD/INT, 183 carries, 1349 rushing yards, 12 TD.  And he did that despite missing time in every game this season because of injury.  He's been simply sensational and the leading reason why Michigan's offense has gone from "good" to "amazing."  

Where does Nebraska fit in next year? Will they be the pre-season favorite to win the Big 10?

Alex: Nebraska is going to be a middle of the pack team. I would say 4th at very best but probably around 6th. The Big 12 is not as defensive minded as the Big 10, and Nebraska is not as good now as many think they are. If they get better a solid fourth is in the future, but if they get worse a battle with Michigan or Illinois for 5th and 6th place could be in store for the Huskers. Also note that many of these transitions do not go as planned. The ACC brought Miami, BC, and Virginia Tech into the fold and the one that they WANTED to contend for the title (Miami) did not. VT and BC have had very good success since the transition. In the SEC Arkansas and South Carolina were brought in before the 92 season and neither has won a conference championship. This is not Nebraska walking into an inferior conference, and the Huskers best remember that.

J Martin: They'll be one of the two most talented teams in the conference the moment they set foot through the door.  Whether they'll be the favorite to win the conference depends on if Pryor comes back to play his senior year at Ohio State.  The Buckeyes with a superstar QB will always get the benefit of a doubt.  But Taylor Martinez and that Pelini defense will give them a battle for it, that's for sure.

Kevin: I'm tempted to pick Nebraska first in the Big Ten out of the gate. If Roy Helu Jr wasn't a Jr I probably would. At this point I'm slotting them 2nd or 3rd but they have a legit shot at winning and contending for the Big Ten title next year. 

Ross: It's hard to say without knowing exactly what Nebraska returns next year, but based on their play this year, they should be a solid contender -- but not an overwhelming favorite by any means.  The schedule -- games against Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State -- will prevent that. They should probably finish in the top five of the league, though.

Who should Minnesota turn to in order to turn their program around?

Alex: You could ask me this for any struggling team in the nation and my first choice will always be Mike Leech. He has done more for the passing game than anyone in the past two or three decades. If he can bring TTech to a nationally recognized level, he can do it for any team. Other choices include Skip Holtz, and Art Briles.

J Martin: There are a lot of positives to the Minnesota job, but the program was run into the ground over the past few years.  It now safely qualifies as a "rebuilding job."  For this sort of rebuilding job in particular, I'd look for an up-and-coming head coach still looking to make a name for himself a the BCS level that will be willing to really hustle for the program.  Someone like Kevin Sumlin from Houston or Al Golden from Temple.  Both have already had their names linked and both would be good choices.  The last thing you want to do is hire some tired retread head coach or roll the dice on a hotshot assistant with no head coach experience.

Kevin: From an outsiders perspective I see Minnesota as a team that is going to have a really tough time contending for the upper echelon of the Big Ten year in and year out. Because of that I would go the Georgia Tech route. Get Ken Niumatalolo of Navy (23-12). Doing this causes Minnesota to be a difficult game for everybody on their schedule once they get some kids in to run the offense. The Big Ten is having a lot of trouble trying to stop Rich Rod and Michigan just imagine what would happen if you threw in an option type offense for them to have to deal with as well. 

Ross: That's tough to answer, since I don't exactly want to see Minnesota improve their fortunes.  That said, assuming Minnesota can't get one of the seeming home run hires like Chris Peterson or Gary Patterson or Jim Harbaugh (and they aren't going to get a guy like that), they should focus on a guy who's really hungry to prove himself and who understands the Big Ten well.  The last thing they need is a retread like Phil Fulmer or Lou Holtz.  Someone like Don Treadwell (the current Michigan State offensive coordinator) might be a good fit.

The Six Pack Games Of The Week: October 28-30

Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 27-15

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28#16 Florida State (6-1, 4-0) @ NC State (5-2, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After the 47-17 beatdown that FSU took at the hands of Oklahoma back in early September, the Seminoles quietly rebounded to rattle off five straight wins and take control of the ACC's Atlantic division, opening up a multi-game lead on NC State and Maryland. Of course, much of that winning streak came on the back of some wins over unimpressive competition; Miami was not only the lone ranked team FSU dispatched in that run, they were the only team with a winning record that FSU beat. The schedule stiffens from here on out, though; every team left on FSU's schedule is (at present) at least a game over .500 and the second through fourth-place teams in the Atlantic (NC State, Maryland, Clemson) comprise three of their next four opponents. After a promising 4-0 start, NC State stumbled by losing two of their next three games (including an upset loss to East Carolina); if they want to have realistic shot at catching FSU in the division, they need to win this game. They key to this game is what FSU defensive coordinator Mark Stoops has whipped up to slow down NC State QB Russell Wilson; if Stoops is successful, this could be a cakewalk for the 'Noles. If not, this one could be a real shootout. I'm leaning towards the former.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 34, NC STATE 20

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30Louisville (4-3, 1-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-3, 2-0) (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)Big East football? Yep, Big East football. Hey, someone has to win this league and get the automatic berth to a BCS bowl. Through two weeks, Pitt is the only Big East team undefeated in conference play -- but they have three non-conference losses, including a blowout at the hands of Miami and close road losses to Utah and Notre Dame. They may very well be the class of the Big East this year -- although that isn't necessarily saying a whole lot. Louisville's already equaled their win total from a year ago and all three of their losses have been close games against decent-ish foes (Kentucky, Oregon State, Cincinnati). Sandwiched around that most reecnt loss (Cincy) are two blowout wins (over dismal Memphis and rapidly-disintegrating UConn). Charlie Strong is getting things turned around there and a fair bit faster than many expected. That said, they probably aren't quite ready to win a game like this and genuinely contend for the Big East title just yet.
THE PICK: PITT 31, LOUISVILLE 21

#6 Missouri (7-0, 3-0) @ #14 Nebraska (6-1, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC)For three straight weeks a top-ranked team has gone down (Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma). The results after that game for the upset-pullers has been mixed; South Carolina went on the road and dropped a weird game to Kentucky, while Wisconsin went on the road to Iowa and narrowly came out with a win. Fresh off their big home win over Oklahoma, now Missouri has to go on the road to face a tough road game against a good Nebraska team. Nebraska had a wild bounce-back game against Oklahoma State a week ago, winning a 51-41 shootout (apparently the vaunted Blackshirt defense was on vacation). Now Nebraska has a chance to wrest control of the Big 12 North from Missouri, to avenge a 52-17 drubbing they suffered the last time Mizzou came to Lincoln... and to give Missouri one final eff you on their way out the door to the Big Ten. Missouri's surprising success this season has come on the back of their defense, which is quite a change from a few years ago, when they just relied on their high-powered offense to put up a ton of points on teams. Still, it's hard to avoid a letdown after such a momentous win and going on the road to play Nebraska and Lincoln is not exactly an ideal follow-up venue.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 28, MISSOURI 20

#5 Michigan State (8-0, 4-0) @ #18 Iowa (5-2, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)Every year there's a team that comes out of nowhere, rides some surprisingly strong play and good fortune to a gaudy record and national recognition. And more often than not, that team stubs their toe at some point. It's really, really hard to go undefeated in modern college football -- especially in one of the big six conferences. The weekly grind is intense, the pressure gets worse by the week, and all of your opponents start getting a little more amped to be the first squad to add a number to the loss column in your record. Teams that manage to navigate an entire season undefeated usually do so on the basis of having at least one truly elite unit (either offense or defense). The much-derided 2002 Ohio State team may have had only a patchwork offense, but they had a hellacious defense. The 2005 USC squad had a so-so defense, but one of the best offenses of the decade. And so on. After eight weeks you are what you are, and what Michigan State is is a good team -- perhaps even a very good team -- but not an elite one. Their defense is good, but not lockdown great. Their offense is good, but occasionally inconsistent. They've gotten exceptional special teams play and that can carry you a long way, but it's also not always a reliable means of scoring points. At least, this is what I tell myself as Sparty gets ready to play an Iowa team working with a make-shift LB corps and prone to some of the ugliest special teams breakdowns I've seen in the last decade of Iowa football. Iowa's back is against the wall -- a loss here and their high hopes for this season are officially toast -- and in spite of their now-obvious flaws, they do still have a very good defensive line (and the Spartan offensive line isn't the elite wall that the Wisco line was a week ago) and a surprisingly potent offense. They have the tools to win this game. At least, that's what I'm telling myself.
THE PICK: IOWA 28, MICHIGAN STATE 24

Florida (4-3, 2-3) @ Georgia (4-4, 3-3) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Prior to last week's much needed bye week, Florida was mired in by far the worst three-game skid of Urban Meyer's Florida tenure; they'd lost three in a row (including a home to loss to, of all teams, Mississippi State) and been held under ten points in two of those losses. The Florida offense has been a FEMA-worthy disaster area all season, but it reached new lows in the embarrassing 7-point effort against Mississippi State. So has a week off been enough to work out the kinks and get them back to a level of, if not good quality, then perhaps just passable quality? To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Tim Tebow isn't walking through that door. Neither is Percy Harvin. The Florida offense remains an oddball collection of players who are very inconsistent (most of the receivers and running backs), just not that good (Emmanuel Moody), or a bad fit for the offense trying to be run (John Brantley). Oh, and they're still coached by Steve Adazzio, who looks increasingly overmatched in his OC position. On the other hand, Georgia has rebounded from their disastrous 1-4 start to rattle off three straight wins and improbably give them a shot at winning the SEC East. They've scored 40+ in all three games; clearly getting AJ Green back from his suspension and the continued development of Washaun Early and Aaron Murray has done wonders for them. That said, the Florida defense has been pretty good this year -- outside two 30+ point efforts conceded to Alabama and LSU, they've held every other foe to 17 points or less. And there is the little matter of Florida absolutely, positively owning Georgia -- they're 17-3 in the last twenty meetings. And they've had a bye week to sort things out and prepare for Georgia. But still... it's hard to completely overlook a half-season's worth of futility. If Georgia can't beat this Florida team, when will they ever beat Florida?
THE PICK: GEORGIA 27, FLORIDA 17

#2 Oregon (7-0, 4-0) @ USC (5-2, 2-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC)A year ago, Oregon's 47-20 destruction of USC served as a clear statement that the era of USC dominance in the Pac-10 was over. A year later, Oregon's now the team with the target on its back and the team with conference and national title ambitions. With two conference losses already (and the sanctions that prevent them from going to a bowl anyway), USC's been reduced to the unfamiliar role of spoiler -- but it's also a role they seem to have embraced (at least against a foe like Oregon). Oregon's coming off yet another lopsided destruction, a 60-13 evisceration of UCLA. USC's coming off a bye and a 48-14 dismantling of Cal that was undoubtedly their best win of the season. Will two weeks of prep time enable USC to engineer a defensive gameplan that allows them to stop Oregon's ridiculously powerful offense? Doubtful. USC's best bet is to take advantage of their own potent offense (Matt Barkley, Robert Woods, Ronald Johnson, and Allen Bradford are all on a roll right now) and hope to get enough turnovers or stops to win a shootout. Winning a shootout against Oregon is easier said than done, though.
THE PICK: OREGON 42, USC 34

The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 14-16

Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.

TWO WEEKS AGO: 4-2
OVERALL 24-12

We took a break last week, but we're back and ready to go this week.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23#6 LSU (7-0, 4-0) AT #4 AUBURN (7-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Another week, another Milacle? Neutral observers (and fans of chaos and random insanity) can only hope so (although Auburn fans probably disagree, as do LSU fans with weak hearts). LSU's improbable undefeated run continues as they face their stiffest test yet -- a road game against top-5 Auburn, better known as The Cam Newton Show, starring Cam Newton, with special guest star Cam Newton. All of which is to say: Cam Newton is really damn good, as evidenced by the fact that through seven game, he's thrown for 1278 yards and 13/5 TD/INT on 80/122 passing and galloped for 860 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. He's a superfreak. And while he hasn't faced any elite defenses yet, he did a pretty good job of carving up (16/21, 158 yards, 2/0 TD/INT, 176 yards rushing, 3 TD) a respectable South Carolina outfit. You have to figure that he's gonna get his against LSU; the real question is what LSU can do to answer him. The Auburn pass defense isn't so hot (see: last week's Arkansas game), but LSU isn't terribly well-equipped to exploit that (outside of stud WR Terrence Tolliver). The unstoppable force that is Cam Newton meets the immovable object that is the Year of the Milacle; call me crazy, but I'm siding with the Caminator in this one.
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, LSU 28

#13 WISCONSIN (6-1, 2-1) AT #15 IOWA (5-1, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)Thanks to the impending Big Ten divisional alignments, this series, which has been one of the most competitive in major college football (Iowa leads 42-41-2), will be going by the wayside to an extent. They'll still play, but not every year and possibly no more than four times in a ten year span. As an Iowa fan, that makes me a little sad, since the Wisconsin games have usually been close, exciting games, although getting an annual game with Nebraska is a pretty solid trade-off, too. Not that this particular game needed any of that "break in the rivalry" juice to make it any bigger than it is, because it's pretty damn big to begin with. Wisconsin restored their Big Ten contender credentials with an impressive 31-18 ass-kicking of then-#1 Ohio State last week, while Iowa went on the road to knock off an explosive Michigan team. Iowa remains one of only three Big Ten teams that's still undefeated (along with Purdue and Michigan State), and they control their own destiny for the league title (assuming someone knocks off Purdue, which seems like a safe bet). Their next three home games are against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State; it's not really hyperbole to argue that the road to the Big Ten crown goes through Iowa City over this next month.

Iowa's played well since their disappointing loss to Arizona last month, but Wisconsin will pose a far different challenge than an inexperienced (and injury-riddled) Penn State team or an electric (but not very physically imposing) Michigan team; Wisconsin is all brawn and beef and very little subtlety. Fortunately, that's precisely the sort of team Iowa has long had success against. Throw in the letdown factor that Wisconsin will inevitably have to battle (see: South Carolina a week ago) and you can see why this will be a very difficult game for them. The key will likely come down to how well they can run the ball on Iowa's defense; if their massive OL can dominate Iowa's talented DL and open up holes for John Clay and James White, it could be a long day for Iowa. On the other hand, if Iowa can keep the Wisco running game mostly in check and force Scott Tolzien to beat them through the air, they should be in very good shape. On offense, Iowa could have trouble establishing a run game with Adam Robinson, but if the OL can provide Ricky Stanzi some decent pass protection (something they've been very good at all year, aside from the end of the Arizona game), he should be able to hit some big plays to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt through the air. I think the Iowa DL makes some big plays and Stanzi has another good day.
THE PICK: IOWA 24, WISCONSIN 14

#16 NEBRASKA (5-1, 1-1) AT #14 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)And now we come to perhaps the biggest "Prove Yourselves" game of the day. Nebraska has to prove that their 5-0 start wasn't a mirage built against dramatically inferior competition and that they can rebound from a gutting loss to Texas in a game that they'd had circled for months. Oklahoma State has to prove that their own 6-0 start isn't just the product of a really favorable schedule and that they can actually beat a good team. Oklahoma State was widely picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South and for fairly understandable reasons: they lost a ton of talent, including multi-year starter Zac Robinson at QB and all-everything WR Dez Bryant. But they returned RB Kendall Hunter (who battled multiple injuries last year on his way to a somewhat mediocre campaign) and they've slotted in QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon to replace Robinson and Bryant and barely skipped a beat. Blackmon, in particular, has been a revelation -- he's leading the NCAA in receiving yards (955) and touchdowns (12) and, yes, he's put up those numbers in just six games. On the other hand, Nebraska will be by far the nastiest defense Okie State has faced this year and they've absolutely stifled passing games all season. The question for Nebraska is how well their own offense can move the ball and score points; Texas completely shut them down and extinguished Taylor Martinez's Heisman buzz. But the Okie State defense is not quite the same thing as a Texas defense coached by Will Muschamp that has two weeks to prepare for the Martinez buzzsaw. When in doubt, side with the elite defense.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 20

NORTH CAROLINA (4-2, 2-1) AT MIAMI (4-2, 2-1) (ESPN2, 6:30pm EST)Before the season, there was some speculation that the ACC Coastal was going to emerge as the toughest division in college football. It had four ranked teams (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami), loads of talent, and high expectations. Midway through the season, we now know that was a lie; the SEC West is unquestionably the top division. But while the ACC Coastal has endured some pratfalls along the way (UNC's ongoing scandals, Virgina Tech's loss to James Madison, Georgia Tech's loss to Kansas, Miami's homefield disemboweling at the hands of Florida State), they've also more or less righted the ship and emerged as solid teams; they're all sitting at 4-2 or better and getting ready for the brutal round robin of games they're going to face against one another over the next month. Despite dealing with massive suspension-induced losses from the ongoing scandals that have engulfed their program, North Carolina has been looking pretty solid after their 0-2 start. Miami has looked unable to compete against foes with talent on par with their own; they lost to Ohio State in a game that was only close because of Ohio State's miserable special teams and got blown off their own field by Florida State. Their four wins have come against Florida A&M, a bad Pitt team, a bad Duke team, and a so-so Clemson team. Suffice to say, I don't really trust them.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA 24, MIAMI 17

#1 OKLAHOMA (6-0, 2-0) AT #11 MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)Oklahoma moved to the top of the initial BCS standings on the back of a 6-0 schedule against a slate of solid opponents (outside of their loss to the Sooners, Oklahoma's opponents are 23-10). The results haven't always been pretty (see: single-digit wins over Utah State, Cincinnati, and Air Force), but wins are the thing and Oklahoma's got 'em so far. Meanwhile, Missouri has quietly gone about its business and also sits at 6-0 and hosting one of the biggest games in their program's history (even with their recent success). Missouri's resume lacks any marquee wins (their best win is... San Diego State? Texas A&M? Illinois?), but they've beaten a collection of teams that has emerged as if not quite "good," at least "perfectly decent." That said, Oklahoma is a whole different beast than any of the teams they've played, especially since they seem to be clicking now. Earlier in the season, they might have screwed around with a not-totally-awful Iowa State team; instead, they obliterated them 52-0, exactly the way an elite team should. That's bad news for Missouri. Strangely, Missouri's success this season has been built on the back of a surprisingly stout defense, rather than the shoot 'em up affairs that constituted their success a few years ago. Can they use that and some homefield mojo to slow down Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and the rest of the Sooner offense? That's tough. The history of the last decade is that Bob Stoops wins big games in the league (it's just those pesky BCS bowl games that give him issues, plus Texas the last few years) and Gary Pinkel rarely does. It's hard to bet against that.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 34, MISSOURI 24

AIR FORCE (5-2, 3-1) AT #5 TCU (7-0, 3-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS College Sports)It's been a while since we've checked in with the non-BCS leagues and this is unquestionably the game of the day from the mid-major ranks. It would have been a match-up of top 25 teams if Air Force hadn't stubbed their toe last week at San Diego State, but as it is, it's still the first quasi-test TCU has faced since the season opener against Oregon State (or Baylor five weeks ago, if you think the Bears are legit). Since their splashy opening week win over Oregon State, TCU has mostly been minding their own business and beating the piss out of teams, especially since they opened up conference play a month ago -- they're 3-0 in Mountain West play and they've outscored their foes by an aggregate score of 103-3 (BYU got a pity FG on them last week). On the other hand, Colorado State, BYU, and Wyoming just aren't any good this year, either. Air Force isn't a great team, but they've emerged as a solid team this year; until last week's slip-up against SDSU, they'd beaten everyone in their path except Oklahoma (who they lost to just 27-24). They also pose a unique challenge for the TCU defense since they run the triple-option. Still, TCU seems too good on both sides of the ball to trip up at hoem against Air Force; this one might be close for a half or so, but TCU should pull away.
THE PICK: TCU 31, AIR FORCE 13

The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 2

Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.

LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 16-8

#21 Texas (3-1) vs. #8 Oklahoma (4-0) (@ Dallas, TX) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
For the second-straight year, one of these teams enters the game with a loss; a year ago it was an injury-ravaged Oklahoma team limping into Dallas with injuries to Jermaine Gresham, Sam Bradford (who returned for that game only to get reinjured), and a host of other players, as well as a pair of losses to BYU and Miami. This year, Texas can't point to any injuries as the source of their malaise, but after stumbling through less-than-impressive wins over the likes of Rice and Wyoming, the Longhorns finally spit the bit in a home meltdown to UCLA a week ago. Frailties both old (their disjointed offense and non-existent running game) and new (a surprisingly porous run defense) were exposed by the Bruins -- and the Sooners will no doubt have been taking notes. Then again, they haven't exactly been running a train on their opposition thus far, either, they're 4-0 but that's included some skin-of-their-teeth wins over Air Force, Cincinnati, and (somehow) Utah State... as well as an incongruous massacre of Florida State sandwiched in-between those games. This game figures to pit strength against strength (Oklahoma's oft-explosive offense against Texas' typically immovable defense) and weakness against weakness (Oklahoma's porous defense against Texas' terminally inconsistent offense). One of those battles will likely cancel out, so the team that can win the other battle (whichever it happens to be) should come out on top. Texas' problems thus far have seemed more troubling, so let's ride the Sooners here.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 27, TEXAS 20

#11 Wisconsin (4-0) at #24 Michigan State (4-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
Both teams are 4-0, but they haven't really been tested that much -- they beat up on some MAC/WAC/Sun Belt-level opposition (and beat the holy piss out of some I-AA squads last week) and scraped by their one "real" opponent by the skin of their teeth (Wisco needed a blocked XP to beat Arizona State, while Michigan State needed that awesome fake field goal to beat Notre Dame in OT). It's also unclear how good or bad their "real" opponents are -- Arizona State's only two losses are to two top 10-ish teams (Wisco and Oregon) and they could have won both if Steven Threet could have stopped being Steven Threet for a few plays, while Notre Dame's three losses are to teams that are a combined 12-0. Wisco got a lot more preseason love than Sparty, but they looked sluggish until they opened up a can of whup-ass on Austin Peay. Michigan State has developed a really balanced offense and has some very good defensive players (like LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, to name a few guys)... although their secondary can be shredded (just ask Dayne Crist and the Domers). I think Sparty has a really good shot to pull off the upset here, as long as they're not looking ahead to next week's big showdown with Michigan.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, WISCONSIN 31

Virginia Tech (2-2) at #23 North Carolina State (4-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)
Raise your hand if you had NC State pegged to be atop the ACC. Lower your hand if you're an alum or a relative of one of the players. If your hand is still raised, you're a goddamn liar. But it's the ACC so the only reasonable expectation is for the unexpected to reign. This is a league where Wake Forest was champion as recently as four years ago; there is no brand of madness too mad for them (except maybe Duke going undefeated and playing for the crystal football -- that's just stupid talk) In any event, now that Virginia Tech has escaped the cruel clutches of foes from the WAC and CAA, they're rounding into their usual form for ACC season: a punishing defense (they shut out Boston College 19-0 a week ago) married to a "just enough to get by" offense (again, just 19 points a week ago). NC State survived a road trip to UCF (28-21), then zipped by supposed tests against Cincinnati (30-19) and Georgia Tech (45-28). As always, a belief in ACChaos is our guiding light here; the question is which team is more chaos-friendly? VT is the traditional bet in the ACC, so let's throw our chips in against 'em. Just because. ACChaos means we'll likely be proven wrong (again).
THE PICK: NC STATE 27, VIRGINIA TECH 20

#22 Penn State (3-1) at #17 Iowa (3-1) (8:05pm EST, ESPN)
I'm not going to lie and pretend I'm not a bit biased about this one... but it has been a really good game more often than not. Going back to 2000, the game's only been decided by more than a touchdown three times (2003, 2007, and last year, although that was a closer game than the 21-10 score indicated) and four games have been decided in the final minutes or OT. Sometimes it's an ugly, defensive slog (2004 and the infamous 6-4 game or last year's rain-soaked showdown), but they're usually exciting, intense games. It's turning into a pretty healthy rivalry and I'm a little sad that the Big Ten's new divisional format will probably lead to the game being played less often than it is now. As far as this game, it's the reversed situation from the last few years, when Penn State went into the game as the favorite with big dreams; Iowa's favored in this one. Most of the match-ups favor them (especially their defensive line versus PSU's offensive line), but that doesn't always mean a lot in this series. I understand if most people aren't watching this one -- it is on the same time as Florida-Bama and Oregon-Stanford after all -- but it should be worth flipping to during commercial breaks or at timeouts. Penn State has some solid players on both sides of the ball, but for the most part they're in rebuilding mode this season, while this is a season Iowa has been building to for a few years. Barring another special teams meltdown, Iowa should win this one.
THE PICK: IOWA 27, PENN STATE 13


#9 Stanford (4-0) at #4 Oregon (4-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
What do we expect out of this one? Points, points, and, oh yeah, more points. A year ago, Stanford won this game 51-42 and there isn't a whole lot of reason to expect differently from this game: Oregon's offense and its ridiculous almost point-a-minute scoring rate barely seems to have skipped a beat without Jeremiah Masoli at the helm and Stanford's offense has been bulldozing opponents even without the Albino Rhino (Toby Gerhart) keying the attack. NFL #1 draft pick-to-be Andrew Luck is leading the way for a balanced offense and the overlooked defense is looking pretty solid, too: they shut out the UCLA team that went into Austin and picked up 34 points and a win last week and they made mincemeat out of Notre Dame, too.

This game is also intriguing for the contrast in styles; Stanford just wants to line up and smash you in the mouth over and over again, while Oregon wants to use speed and misdirection to slice you to ribbons. Neither team has faced an offense as potent as the one they'll be facing on Saturday night. It's tough to distinguish between these two evenly-matched teams, but Stanford seems to have done better against slightly stronger competition (that UCLA win gets better and better) and Oregon did have trouble stopping what was suppsoed to be a mediocre Arizona State offense a week ago (at least until Steven Threet gifted them with turnover after turnover to end promising drives). The atmosphere in Autzen will be insane, but for now give us the team that likes to punch and get punched.
THE PICK: STANFORD 38, OREGON 34


#7 Florida (4-0) at #1 Alabama (4-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS)
One of these teams has (mostly) looked like a juggernaut, rolling through overmatched opponents and pummeling sad sack opponents. The other... has not. Alabama cruised through their early games, then faced their stiffest test yet in a road game at Arkansas, where they fell behind 17-7 at halftime and 20-7 late in the third quarter, before their brutally tough running game and an opportunistic defense (aided and abetted by Ryan Mallett's awful implosion) took over in the fourth quarter. On one hand, their failings in that game could be construed as a sign of weakness; on the other, their ability to battle back is impressive... and they aren't going to face many quarterbacks or passing offenses good enough to exploit the weaknesses in their secondary. The question this week is: can Florida do it? Their moribund offense woke up last week behind the Tebow-esque rhinoceros runs of Trey Burton, but doing that against Kentucky is one thing; doing that against Alabama's defense is another matter entirely.

Additionally, there's been a lot of hype for this game as the third part of the epic Bama-Florida trilogy that began with the last two SEC Championship Games, which seems a bit unfair. There was a great deal of similarity between the Florida and Alabama squads that tangled in those title games, but this year's been a ton of turnover on both sides for this game, with Alabama losing basically their entire starting defense and Florida losing huge swaths of players on both sides of the ball (including some guy named Tim). What happened in those two SEC title games probably isn't going to mean a whole lot for this particular game. As for this game... I don't really believe the Florida offense has truly turned a corner just because they lit up Kentucky and while the Florida defense will make some big plays and keep the game close for a while, I don't think they can withstand the punishment for an entire game.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 24, FLORIDA 14

Week 2 Questions: Iowa Hawkeyes

1. What are your overall thoughts on the team’s performance so far this year?

Pretty pleased. There’s not much to dislike about 37-7 and 35-7 wins. The biggest question mark on offense (the offensive line) has looked solid through two games (albeit against weak competition); Stanzi’s rarely been pressured and usually had ample time to find open receivers and they’ve done a nice job of opening holes for the running game most of the time. The biggest question mark on defense was the pair of new linebackers and so far things have been going pretty well there, too. Tyler Nielsen slid into one of the outside linebacker spots and already looks as comfortable as a multi-year starter there; at middle linebacker Jeff Tarpinian’s been slowed by a wrist injury, but he’s been fine in limited action. The running game has been a pleasant surprise, with Adam Robinson looking even better than a year ago and Jewel Hampton looking like a very competent sidekick. The defensive line hasn’t been recording a lot of sacks, but they have been getting quite a bit of pressure on the quarterback. Overall, they’ve done exactly what you’d want them to do against lesser opposition: dominate them.

2. Based on the performance in Week 1 and 2, what area(s) does the team need to improve on the most?

There are a few question marks on special teams. Due to circumstance, Iowa hasn’t yet attempted a field goal this year and given the inconsistency of our kickers over the past two years, that’s a bit of a worry. The coverage on a few kickoffs and a punt on Saturday was also poor; it didn’t cost them anything in that game, but it would be a poor idea to give easy yards to stronger opponents. Other than that, it’s just a matter of being a bit more consistent along the offensive line and in coverage for the linebackers. We’ll know a lot more about this team after this week’s road game against Arizona; that will be their first real test of the season.

3. Which player(s) needs to step up their performance in the coming weeks?

As noted earlier, no one’s really played poorly thus far. RG Nolan MacMillan probably needs to be more consistent if he wants to keep his starting job; he only inherited that job because of an injury late in training camp to projected starter Adam Gettis. Now that Gettis is getting healthier, MacMillan will need to play at a high level to keep the starting spot to himself.

4. Which player has surprised you the most so far this season with their performance ?

Probably Tyler Nielsen, if only because before this season he’d only seen action on special teams or in mop-up duty (which was especially hard to come by on last year’s livin’ on the edge Iowa team). Riley Reiff, Julian Vandervelde, Adam Robinson, and Allan Reisner have also been playing very well this season, but it’s not quite as much of a surprise since they’d played well in spurts over the past two seasons. After some early game jitters against Eastern Illinois, Nielsen has really come on strong, delivering some hard hits and displaying impressive athleticism in leaping up for an interception against Iowa State. He’s filling A.J. Edds’ shoes quite well at the moment, although the true test will be when Iowa plays a good passing team, as Edds’ greatest skill was his excellent coverage ability – the jury’s still out on Nielsen there.

5. What are the major question marks headed into Week 3?

Just how good is this team and how well they handle a difficult road trip? They’ve played well through two games and avoided any embarrassing pratfalls (a la Virginia Tech) or near-pratfalls (a la last year’s Iowa team), but the level of competition also hasn’t been very high. They’ve basically performed up to expectations so far (although the first half against Iowa State last week was an impressive showcase of domination in all facets of a game: offense, defense, special teams), but things will be much more difficult this week. Arizona has also blown out its first two opponents (Toledo and The Citadel) and is building off a solid season a year ago. They’re far more talented than either Eastern Illinois or Iowa State and have plenty of speed and talent on offense and defense to challenge Iowa. And in Nick Foles they have a QB who can be patient and accurate and give Iowa’s defense some problems (see: pretty much every Northwestern quarterback over the past five years).

There are some worries related to the game that have little to do with the actual football, too. It’s a trip west for a late start (9:30pm CST) in the desert, conditions which have caused some Iowa fans to draw parallels to the ugly 44-7 road loss they suffered against Arizona State in 2004. Those same Iowa fans are also fretting over Iowa’s record in games west of the Rockies, since they’ve lost their last six or seven games in those conditions (albeit over a span of 20-30 years, so we’re talking about a pretty absurd sample size here). Still, even without the superstitions, it’s obvious that these are obviously ideal conditions, given how uncommon they are to Iowa.

6. What needs to happen in order to secure a victory in Week 3?

As usual with Iowa, it’s all about the line play. The offensive line needs to give Stanzi adequate protection and open up holes for Robinson and Hampton, while the defensive line needs to get pressure on Foles and disrupt this rhythm; the latter is especially important since Iowa rarely blitzes. If the defensive line can’t get pressure by themselves, the defense will either be forced to make uncomfortable blitzes or settle for getting picked apart by Foles and the Arizona receivers.

That said, I feel good about this game despite the fact that it’s a tough road game against an offense that’s been blitzing teams lately. Arizona’s struggled against teams like Iowa over the past few years: big, physical teams that can push them around and impose their will have really put the brakes on their offense (see: Iowa last year, or Arizona State and USC last year, or, most notably, Nebraska in last year’s Holiday Bowl, when they wiped the floor with Arizona) and been able to overpower their offense as well (see: Iowa last year to an extent and, again, Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl). If Iowa can deal with the inevitable early surge of emotion from Arizona (night game, national TV, “revenge” game, etc.) and avoid costly turnovers, I think they’ll be able to wear Arizona down and take control in the second half.

The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 16-18

Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.

LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 7-5

SATURDAY, SEPT. 18

#12 Arkansas @ Georgia (12pm EST, ESPN)
Arkansas was the trendy pick in the SEC this year, following in the proud footsteps of 2009 Ole Miss and 2008 Georgia, although by now the pollsters have learned their lesson well enough not to place Arkansas immediately in the top ten. They certainly didn't look like a top ten team in struggling with UL-Monroe for three quarters last week. Like that '09 Ole Miss squad, they feature a much-hyped veteran signal-caller (Ryan Mallett for Arkansas, Jevan Snead for Ole Miss) and a good amount of other returning starters and were competitive against other top SEC teams the year prior. Unlike that '09 Ole Miss squad, they don't have Houston Nutt, a serial underachiever when expectations are high. This road trip to Georgia is their first real test of the season and the first game in a fairly brutal four-game stretch that will either reveal them as real contenders for an SEC (and possibly even national) title or expose them as fraudulent pretenders; after the road game against Georgia, Arkansas entertains Alabama at home, faces Texas A&M in Dallas, and heads back on the road to play Auburn. That's some tough sledding. A week ago, Georgia failed their first big test of the season, getting manhandled by South Carolina, 17-6. The Ol' Ball Coach rarely had South Carolina test Georgia's pass defense in that game -- why bother when Marcus Lattimore could grind those undersized Georgia defenders into dust -- but Petrino and Mallett figure to do just that on Saturday. If the Georgia pass defense can keep Mallett in check, they have a shot in this one. Here's guessing they struggle to do that.
THE PICK: ARKANSAS 31, GEORGIA 24

Georgia Tech @ North Carolina (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)
Oh, ACC. It wasn't really just two weeks ago that you had five teams ranked in the top 20 and various pundits (including this one) suggesting that the ACC Coastal could be the toughest division in college football, was it? Yeah, about that... NOT SO MUCH. It may still be tough for one team to emerge from that division, but only because all the teams in it are varying degrees of mediocre. Georgia Tech dispatched South Carolina State easily in week one (41-10), but provided one of the more surprising upsets of the season in traveling to Lawrence and losing to the same Kansas team that a week earlier had failed to score a touchdown against a I-AA North Dakota State team. That's... not good. But when your quarterback goes 5/15, good things generally aren't right around the corner, even if you are an option team. On the other side, North Carolina has had two weeks to think about their near-miss against LSU and prepare for Georgia Tech's always-tricky offense. The bad news is that they still have no idea which players that were suspended for that LSU tilt may be available for this game; the wheels of NCAA justice move very slowly indeed. Giving a team an extra week to prepare for the Tech offense is usually a good way to neutralize (at least in part) its effectiveness, but that may not be of much aid to a Tar Heel team dealing with so much chaos.
THE PICK: GEORGIA TECH 34, NORTH CAROLINA 21

#8 Nebraska @ Washington (330pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
Nebraska pulled off a sloppy 38-17 win over Idaho last week, turning the ball over four times and committing ten penalties (for 123 yards); they'll need to be sharper than that to get to to 3-0 this week. The Washington hype bus got a flat tire in week one as they came undone on a road trip to BYU, but they bounced back nicely to take care of business against Syracuse last week. Nebraska obviously represents a massive leap in quality from either of those teams, but Washington has been a scrappy team against ranked opponents under Sarkisian. They went 2-3 a year ago, blasting a 19th ranked Cal team to the end the season and pulling off a memorable September upset over then-#3 USC. (In their three losses, they lost a spirited 31-23 game to LSU, but got smashed by both Oregon schools.) Granted, those teams may have been overrated at the time of those games (USC certainly was, judging by the rest of their season), but still: Sark has done an excellent job of getting his team ready to play against top teams when they come to Seattle. Nebraska, meanwhile, has found a bit of offense to go with their very solid defense, led by freshman quarterback Taylor "T-Magic" Martinez, who's been a capable passer (21/32, 242 yards, 0/1 TD/INT) and a dynamic runner (21 carries, 384 yards, 1 TD). Washington keeps it close by forcing Martinez into some costly errors, but Nebraska's defense ultimately makes enough stops to secure victory.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, WASHINGTON 24

Clemson @ #16 Auburn (7pm EST, ESPN)
Somewhat inexplicably, ESPN's College Gameday has chosen to head to this game this week. Maybe they got some good buy one/get one free deals when they were in Alabama for the Penn State-Alabama game last week. In any event, it is an intriguing match-up between one of the few ACC teams that hasn't fallen on their faces yet and an SEC West team that continues to generate buzz as an SEC title contender. Mind you, Clemson's largely managed to avoid the embarrassing fates that have befallen fellow ACC teams by playing no one with a pulse (North Texas and Presbyterian so far) and Auburn looked decidedly not-ready-for-primetime in eking out a win over a Mississippi State team that could barely complete a pass. Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper have done an adequate job of replacing CJ Spiller so far (27 carries, 243 yards, 4 TD) and QB Kyle Parker has been efficient (15/26, 283 yards, 4/1 TD/INT), but Auburn's defense is a gigantic leap in quality from the likes of the Mean Green and the Blue Hose. Auburn's been led by JUCO transfer QB Cam Newton, still best known for stealing a laptop at Florida a few years ago. Newton's leading the team in both passing (20/33, 322 yards, 5/1 TD/INT) and running (33 carries, 241 yards, 2 TD) and Clemson hasn't had to deal with anything like him yet. Throw in the fact that Auburn has utterly owned this series (14 wins in a row dating back to 1952, including 9 in a row in Auburn) and the pick to win is pretty easy. And, hell, Clemson's from the ACC -- are you really gonna pick them to do something good?
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, CLEMSON 24

#6 Texas @ Texas Tech (8pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
The last time Texas went to Lubbock these two teams played one of the best games of the last few years and Michael Crabtree made one of the most memorable catches of the decade in Tech's sensational upset of Texas that ended Texas' conference (and national) title ambitions. Sadly, most of the key personnel from that game -- Colt McCoy, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, Mike Leach -- are no longer around for this installment, so it may be hard to get a rematch that lives up to that tremendous standard. That said, if Texas Tech continues to build upon the promise shown in their first two games and the Texas offense continues to look lethargic, an upset isn't out of the question. The atmosphere in Lubbock should be frenzied and Tuberville's Auburn teams frequently played their best ball in the biggest games (from 2004-2008, Tuberville's Auburn teams went 9-6 against top ten-ranked foes). On the other hand, for all its sluggishness, the Texas offense hasn't turned the ball over thus far and has scored 30+ points in both games and the defense has been absolute nails most of the time. Thus far, Tuberville's stayed remarkably faithful to the Air Raid offense that Mike Leach installed at Texas Tech: they threw 53 times against SMU and 41 times against New Mexico. Of course, they also ran the ball 36 times against New Mexico and two backs had ten carries, so Tuberville clearly hasn't forgotten about establishing the run. Against a stout Texas defense that may be easier said than done, so look for Taylor Potts to chuck the ball early and often. On the other side of the ball, the Texas Tech defense hasn't been particularly fearsome yet: they conceded 433 yards of offense to New Mexico and two second-quarter touchdowns when the game was still in doubt to a degree. Against SMU they gave up 327 yards and 27 points, so this is clearly a work in progress; in any event, there should be some holes for the Texas offense to exploit. Unless Texas has some really costly turnovers, they should win this one; they have a defense capable of stopping Tech a few times, while Tech doesn't seem to have a defense capable of stopping Texas very often.
THE PICK: TEXAS 35, TEXAS TECH 24

#9 Iowa @ #24 Arizona (1030pm EST, ESPN)
And now we come to the only game of the day to feature two ranked opponents. Iowa beat Arizona 27-17 a year ago in Iowa City in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated (Arizona's two touchdowns came off a pick-six and late touchdown drive against reserve defenders after Iowa had already built a 27-10 lead). So what's changed in a year, aside from the locale? Not much for Iowa, aside from a rebuilt offensive line that's performed well against admittedly below-average competition (this week will be the first true test) and a linebacking corps that's two-thirds new. Arizona, on the other hand, has a lot of new faces in the front seven on defense, but returns a lot on offense. But the most significant change is at quarterback; Matt Scott was the Wildcats' QB in the early going last year, but he was so disastrous against Iowa (4/14, 50 yds, 0/1 TD/INT) that he gave way to Nick Foles... and never got the job back. Foles led the Arizona offense on their only scoring drive against Iowa a year ago and went to garner all-conference honors in the Pac-10; the Arizona offense really exploded when he took over and bears little resemblance to the outfit that sputtered and died against Iowa a year ago -- so that will be a significant new challenge. One thing that should give Iowa confidence? That offense curled up into a ball and whimpered when faced with a fast, hard-hitting, aggressive defense in Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl last year. Iowa doesn't have an Ndamukong Suh to lead that attack, but they do have Adrian Clayborn and the rest of a very aggressive and disruptive defensive line, linebackers that have been coming into their own, and a mostly veteran secondary.

On offense, Iowa's approach won't be much of a mystery: they're going to pound away with their physical offensive line and the one-two punch of Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton at running back and then use play-action to go over the top to Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. A week ago, they demoralized Iowa State with an unstoppable, punishing ground game and followed it up by finishing them off with some deep bombs in the passing game. If the offensive line can open holes for the running game and give Stanzi time to survey the field, the Iowa offense should do very well; on the other hand, the Arizona defense has far more speed and physical talent than either the Iowa State or the Eastern Illinois defenses, so the going won't be easy. Iowa has a dreadful record in games played out west, but that was then and this is now: they have a well-prepared, mentally tough team that should be able to punish Arizona physically.
THE PICK: IOWA 27, ARIZONA 20

Week One Questions: Iowa Hawkeyes

1. Who impressed you the most with their Week 1 performance?

No question, Adam Robinson. He was basically the last man standing at RB after Brandon Wegher left the team and Jewel Hampton sat out to serve a one-game suspension, but he came through in a big way: 109 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. He's not the prettiest runner to watch, or the most explosive, but his tenacity on Saturday was remarkable. He's a very hard runner and one who seems to run even harder after initial contact -- he literally dragged Eastern Illinois defenders into the endzone on one of his scoring runs and there were multiple runs where he gained extra yards by refusing to go down easily. He was solid a year ago, but kind of quiet and much of the off-season hype has centered on Hampton; Robinson reminded everyone on Saturday that he'll be a valuable member of the RB corps this year, too.

2. Based on their Week 1 performance, what area(s) does the team need to improve on the most?

It's hard to complain too much about a 30-point win in which the only score was set up a fake punt that the other team attempted from their own 20-yard line -- you aren't going to see that happen too often. Still, if there was one mildly concerning issue it would probably be the pass coverage. It was good for the most part, but new starting corner Micah Hyde was at fault (either entirely or partially) for two big pass plays on EIU's lone scoring drive, so he'll want to try and clean that up. The defense also didn't force any turnovers and you'd kind of expect a defense of this caliber to force a few against a I-AA team. But their track record on that front is so strong that it's certainly not something to worry about just yet.

3. Which back-up or newcomer earned more playing time with their performance in last weeks game?

Probably Brad Herman, the second-string tight end. He was likely to get quite a bit of playing time anyway, considering Iowa's love of two-tight end sets, but there had been some talk that a highly-touted freshman at his position (C.J. Fiedorowicz) could eat into his playing time this year. Herman's day (3 catches, 57 yards) definitely earned him the benefit of the doubt going forward and should keep him in the mix as one of the top two tight ends on the team.

4. What are the major question marks that still surround the team headed into Week 2?

Before the season the offensive line was identified as the major point of concern in determining the team's success this year -- and that's still the case after week one. They weren't bad in week one -- they opened up holes for Robinson and kept Ricky Stanzi upright most of the game (only 1-2 sacks, mostly off missed blitz pickups) -- but the caliber of defense they face going forward is going to be much better than EIU so continued progress is a must.

5. Are you more or less confident in your teams ultimate success this year after Week 1?

A little bit more confident. There's only so much you can (or should) take from a win over a team like EIU, but beating them by 30 is infinitely preferable to beating them by one point after getting a pair of blocked field goals (been there, done that). The offensive line blocked well, Stanzi avoided mistakes, Robinson was good, the defense largely shut down EIU's offense, and the special teams were very good. There's really not much to complain about from that game. Maybe the turnovers -- there was a fumbled snap right outside the EIU endzone and another fumble immediately after a catch. It would be nice to cut down on mistakes like that. Beyond that, this was the sort of easy, comfortable win you want when you open the season with a team like EIU.

6. What needs to happen in order to secure a victory in Week 2?

Iowa State's a far more difficult opponent than Eastern Illinois, particularly because they typically approach the game with an immense amount of emotion and focus. Matching that emotion and focus is something that past Iowa teams have failed to do, which has cost them wins even when they were the ostensibly more talented team. Beyond that, they need to avoid turnovers, especially ones that cost them easy points or set up ISU for easy scores of their own. They also need to establish a solid running game; Iowa State's defense looks weakest up front, so dominating that area of the field will be instrumental in making it easier on Stanzi to avoid pressing things in the passing game and making (potentially costly) mistakes. They need to get more big plays out of the receivers in this game, too; the passing offense largely focused on the tight ends and check-downs to the running backs (in all, 13 of the 21 completions on Saturday went to tight ends or running backs) and that sort of conservatism is fine against EIU, but with receivers as talented and explosive as Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, they really need to make use of them more, especially against a defense that's not as easy to exploit with soft, ultra-conservating passing.

Big Ten Preview

2009 Standings
Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 (7-1)
Iowa Hawkeyes 11-2 (6-2)
Penn State Nittany Lions 11-2 (6-2)
Wisconsin Badgers 10-3 (5-3)
Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 (5-3)
Michigan State Spartans 6-7 (4-4)
Purdue Boilermakers 5-7 (4-4)
Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 (3-5)
Illinois Fighting Illini 3-9 (2-6)
Michigan Wolverines 5-7 (1-7)
Indiana Hoosiers 4-8 (1-7)

Returning Leaders: Passing
Ben Chappell, Indiana, Sr (268 of 428 for 2942 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin, Sr (211 of 328 for 2705 yds, 16 TD, 11 INT)
Kirk Cousins, Mich St, Jr (198 of 328 for 2680 yds, 19 TD, 9 INT)
Adam Weber, Minnesota, Sr (191 of 267 for 2582 yds, 13 TD, 15 INT)
Ricky Stanzi, Iowa, Sr (171 of 304 for 2417 yds, 17 TD, 15 INT)

Returning Leaders: Rushing
John Clay, Wisconsin, Jr (287 carries for 1517 yds, 18 TD, 5.2 ypc)
Evan Royster, Penn State, Sr (205 carries for 1169 yds, 6 TD, 5.7 ypc)
Ralph Bolden, Purdue, Jr (200 carries for 935 yds, 9 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Adam Robinson, Iowa, Soph (181 carries for 834 yds, 5 TD, 4.6 ypc)
Terrelle Pryor, Ohio St, Jr (162 carries for 779 yds, 7 TD, 4.8 ypc)

Returning Leaders: Receiving
Keith Smith, Purdue, Sr (91 rec for 1100 yds, 6 TD, 7.6 rec/game)
Tandon Doss, Indiana, Jr (77 rec for 962 yds, 5 TD, 6.4 rec/game)
Damarlo Belcher, Indiana, Jr (61 rec for 770 yds, 5 TD, 5.1 rec/game)
DeVier Posey, Ohio St, Jr (60 rec for 828 yds, 8 TD, 4.6 rec/game)
Nick Toon, Wisconsin, Jr (54 rec for 805 yds, 4 TD, 4.2 rec/game)

Returning Leaders: Tackles
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (154 total, 11.8 tackles/game)
Ross Homan, Ohio St, Sr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Ian Thomas, Indiana, Jr, LB (95 total, 7.9 tackles/game)
Brian Rolle, Ohio St, Sr, LB (94 total, 7.2 tackles/game)
Eric Gordon, Mich St, Sr, LB (93 total, 7.1 tackles/game)

Returning Leaders: Sacks
Adrian Clayborn, Iowa, Sr, DE (11.5 sacks)
Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue, Sr, DE (11.0)
Greg Jones, Mich St, Sr, LB (9.0)
Cameron Heyward, Sr, DE (6.5)

Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Tyler Sash, Iowa, Jr, SS (6 interceptions)
Ross Homan, Ohio State, Sr, LB (5)
Brett Greenwood, Iowa, Jr, FS (3)
Brian Peters, Northwestern, Jr, SS (3)
Kyle Theret, Minnesota, Jr, S (3)

BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 10 WITH THE ZEALOTS

Illinois Fighting Illini 

Chris (Prediction: #10): Bloop de bloop, de bweedley deep de deep de derk. Ron Zook is A COACH! For those of you who don't watch South Park and didn't understand the Rob Schneider joke reference, you're missing out. But the point is, Zook is a person masquerading as a coach. The only thing that we have to do now is figure out how long the act is in town. Newsflash: It's over at the end of this year. Also, I'm not even going to explain why I think the Illini will finish in 10th. It's Ron Zook isn't it? That's explanation enough.

J Martin (Prediction: #9): I never bought into the Juice Williams hype, but even I was astounded at just how badly the Illini fell on their face in 2009. I’m even more astounded that Ron Zook still has a job. I guess you can line up Illinois next to Maryland and Colorado as the schools that don’t care about football. But they’re still going to field a team this year, so I guess I’ll talk about them. It’s looking like a total reboot on the offensive side of the ball with new OC Paul Petrino needing to find a new QB, a new top receiver, and a consistent rushing attack, which they’ve lacked since Rashard Mendenhall bolted. (I really wish Daniel Dufrene had panned out, if only because my “Dufrene! Party of 6!” TD call was a big party hit.) Defensively, they’re a really underwhelming group, even though they return a fair amount of experience. Basically, it’s just a lame duck team. And they have two lower division teams on their schedule, so they’ll have to win 7 to get to a bowl. And that ain’t happening. I think everybody here will be through and waiting for the new coach by November.

Ross (Prediction: #9): The good news is that they return 3/5 of the offensive line and one of the league's most underrated running backs (Mikel LeShoure) and don't have to deal with the Juice Williams Experience anymore. On the other hand, they're on yet another new offensive coordinator and Ron Zook is still there. There are a few more faces back on defense, but really the last two years have made it crystal clear that it doesn't matter how much returning talent the Illini have; so long as Ron Zook is there, he'll find a way to screw it up. Skipping Iowa and Wisconsin on the schedule is a plus, but a three-game stretch against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State could crush their season.

Indiana Hoosiers 

Chris (Prediction: #9): Indiana should improve gradually on offense as the year goes along, bringing back a lot of key pieces to the puzzle in the way of skill position players and just enough on the offensive line. As for defense...yeah, well...there's always next year.

J Martin (Prediction: #10): Indiana finished 1-7 at the bottom of the conference for the second straight season in 2009, but if just a handful of plays had gone the other way, they could have easily been 3-5 and playing in a bowl game. Because of that, they seem to have the most upward momentum of the worst programs in the conference. Unfortunately, when you’re at the level of an Indiana, progress isn’t always a straight line because you don’t have the talent on deck to pick up where the departing seniors left off. This year, Indiana will be feeling that the most on the defensive side of the ball, where they lose 9 of their top 13 contributors from last season. Not that the Hoosiers were world-beaters on D last year, but they were experienced, plucky guys who helped Indiana win the turnover battle in 7 of their 12 games (while their quarterback was busy throwing 15 interceptions). So its definitely a rebuilding year on that side of the ball. And the offense is simply not good enough to make up the difference. Their 4 patsy non-conference games should allow them to match 09’s win total, but beyond that, the going gets tough. This won’t be the year they take a step forward.

Ross (Prediction: #10): Indiana should have a very strong offense, considering they return nine starters -- everyone but a pair of linemen. QB Ben Chappell was pretty productive a year ago and he has all of his primary targets back again this year. So that's good. But an already bad defense returns only four starters and loses virtually all of its best players, too. That's a problem. They'd better get their wins early, too, since the schedule has them close with games against Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue. A year ago Indiana was good enough to hang in there for a while against Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State; they were also bad enough to choke away all those games and get destroyed, 47-7, by Indiana. Their offense might be good enough to steal a game or two in the Big Ten, but they're going to need to score a lot of points to overcome their leaky defense.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Chris (Prediction: #2): My bonehead prediction of 2009: "Iowa does not stand a chance against GT's triple option in the bowl game. They're going to get throttled." Whoops...looks like I've got some splainin' to do on that one. 1. I was wrong. 2. Did I mention I was wrong? Like WAY wrong? So yeah, my bad in my failed attempt to pick against the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz is an amazing program coach. He might not be flashy or in a league of his own, but he knows how to year in and year out put a good football team on the field. Defensively they should be among the nation's best again, returning 8 starters on that side of the ball. The concern is on offense, while returning Ricky Stanzi and some skill position guys, they have a completely revamped O-line. This team was a couple of injuries away from an undefeated season, although if you look at the first game, this team was a point away from being beaten at home by Northern Iowa too. So I'm not ready to call a team that loses so much from a sub-par offense a world-beater. The truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes...and that's why I think that Iowa will finish second to Ohio State and its arsenal of weapons on offense.

J Martin (Prediction: #2): I love this Iowa team. On defense, they look set to pick up right where they left off in 2009. Yes, they lost two very good linebackers and a good cornerback, but virtually everyone else who made a significant contribution to last year's unit is back. On offense, I expect them to be better than in 09. The offensive line doesn't look as dominant on paper, but OL's are Kirk Ferentz's specialty, so I have no doubt he'll put a quality line on the field. The main area where they need improvement is turnovers, particularly Ricky Stanzi's interceptions. If he can cut his 09 number in half, the Hawkeyes will be tough to beat. And I think he can do that. I think when presumptive running back starter Jewel Hampton went down with a preseason injury, thrusting that job into the hands of a couple of freshmen, it put the offense into a situation they weren't entirely comfortable with. Namely, it required Stanzi to make more plays than maybe he needed to at that point in his development. This year Hampton is back, and those freshmen (who didn't play half bad as the season progressed) now have a year's worth of experience under their belts. That's going to create more of a comfort zone for Stanzi and allow him to be more efficient with the football. I have this team below Ohio State right now, but just by a hair. The schedule definitely plays into their favor as they get their top 3 conference opponents at home. Iowa just needs to prove to me that they can win the lesser games consistently, like say against Northwestern, right along with the big games before I ever put them at #1.

Ross (Prediction: #2): Everything hinges on the development of the offensive line and the team's ability to stay healthy. The defense looks absolutely loaded and the offense is strong at the skill positions. But if guys start going down, there isn't a huge amount of depth at most positions. And the offensive line is still a big question mark, given that they have to work in three new starters who haven't had a lot of experience thus far. Still, if the injury gods smile upon them and the offensive line develops into a respectable outfit, this is a team built to go far. They get all of their toughest foes at home and the schedule is fairly manageable. On the other hand, their history against OSU is absolutely miserable, which makes it hard to pick them over OSU for now.

Michigan Wolverines

Chris (Prediction: #5): So Michigan started the season 5-2, and because of his stellar play everyone was lapping up the Wolverines and true freshman quarterback Tate Forcier. EHHHHHHHHH! Wrong answer. Survey says...the Wolves lost their remaining five games, and with exception of Purdue, they weren't close. So Michigan, what's up? Let's talk. For one, I have absolute faith that Forcier is a gamer and that if anyone is going to elevate that program back to where it was, it's him. The way he played as a true freshman coming into a situation that bad and with such moxie, WOW! Matt Barkley played like dog excrement compared to Forcier, especially considering that Barkley had skill position talent galore around him. Also, how long can Rich Rod and Michigan really be bad? I mean really? The guy's a winner. He may do it illegally, but he does win. The question is how will the ongoing NCAA probe affect the Maize and Blue? I think this is the year though, all things considered, that Michigan gets it right. I'm either way wrong or way right on this one. Here's to hoping I'm way right that one of college football's true traditional powerhouses comes back strong. Even Buckeyes fans want to see the rivalry game actually be somewhat competitive again!

J Martin (Prediction: #7): I’ll admit it’s really difficult for me to get a handle on Michigan this year for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t know who the quarterback is going to be. RichRod’s offense is totally dependent on who the trigger man is. In his heart of hearts, I think he wants Denard Robinson to be the QB because he’s the most dangerous runner of the two, but Forcier has shown more as a passer and doesn’t seem to be going away (unless he gets his feelings hurt and transfers, as rumored). If Forcier is the QB, Michigan is probably going to be in the .500 range, like last year, and maybe go to a bowl. If Robinson is the QB, they could go anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3. Secondly, I just don’t know how this team is going to respond to the axe hanging over Rodriguez’s neck. Are they going to rally around him and fight for a bowl, or are they going to quit and wait to start over with the new coach? Last year began under a similar cloud, and they started out inspired, but then they seemed to give up after dropping games to Michigan State and Iowa. If this year’s team doesn’t have more heart, this season could get REALLY ugly, because I think UConn has the team to show up in Ann Arbor and clean their clocks in week 1. I'm kinda on the fence, but I hate the 3-3-5 defense that Rich is bringing back, so I guess I'll be on the side of pessimism.

Ross (Prediction: #7): It seems increasingly unlikely that the Michigan defense will be able to stop a soul in 2010 (especially through the air), which means that the offense is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting to win games. Luckily, they return a pretty fair amount of talent on offense (3/5 of the OL, QB, a pair of receivers, and a tight end) and showed signs last year of evolving into the sort of high-powered offense that's been a staple of most Rodriguez-coached teams. But that defense... that defense is scary (and not in a good way), especially the secondary, which is an utter wasteland after multiple injuries and defections of highly-ranked talent. The schedule doesn't do them any favors, either; four of their final six Big Ten games are against Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.

Michigan State Spartans

Chris (Prediction: #6): My logic here? Good coach, okay team...not as good as at least four of the teams ahead of them in the Big Ten (may be faltering on my Michigan prediction already), but is definitely not as bad as the 5 teams below. Middle of the road Michigan State can knock people off, or lose to questionable teams. But in the end it all equals out and the Spartans should improve at least one game from their 6-7 season a year ago. You know they should really make some kind of rule with 6-6 bowl teams that if they lose and go 6-7 than they should have to play another 6-7 team that lost and the winner gets back to .500. The loser is disqualified from playing in a bowl the next year because there is no way a team like that should have ever played in a bowl in the first place. Who's with me?

J Martin (Prediction: #6): The Spartans suffered somewhat of a let down in 2009. Despite some turnover on offense, the defense was expected to carry the team to another 9 or 10 win season. But early in the year, the secondary completely imploded, and MSU ended up with one of the worst pass defenses in the conference. That exacerbated issues with a young offense, and the next thing you know, they’re struggling to make a bowl game. Well, the defense is slightly less experienced, with many of their losses coming in the secondary. Your first instinct might be to expect another bad year, but my opinion is that when you’re as bad as the Spartans were in 09, a bunch of fresh faces can be just what you need. I’m looking for a big rebound, led by returning senior linebacker Greg Jones. I also expect more out of the offense now that they’ve settled in on one quarterback and all those freshman running backs have had a year to mature in the system. They still won’t be ready to compete with the best in the conference, but they should return to 8-9 win form.

Ross (Prediction: #5): MSU looks a lot like Iowa on offense: lots of returning talent at the skill positions and a lot of question marks along the offensive line. QB Kirk Cousins might be the best quarterback in the Big Ten and he has a slew of returning targets to throw to, which should lead to some impressive passing stats for MSU. They also have some talented RBs in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker; they saw a lot of action last year as true freshmen and that experience should serve them well this year. Still, all of that offensive firepower could be for naught if the new look offensive line can't open holes for the backs and keep Cousins upright -- and that's a definite concern for now. The defense is stacked at LB with veterans Greg Jones and Eric Gordon and newcomers William Gholston and Max Bullough. On the other hand, they'll need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and in the secondary. Still, if they get some quality play from the newcomers in the defense and the offensive line gels quickly, this could be a surprise team in the Big Ten.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Chris (Prediction: #11): Gone are the days of Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney rushing for 1,000 yards in the same year (in fact gone are those days in the NFL too, apparently...despite the fact that they are on different teams). Minnesota's offense will improve by way of returning a whopping 9 starters (which isn't saying much, it's hard to get worse than 109th in offense...you have to try pretty hard to do that). YAY! Whew. Wait, but they're still ranked 11th in the Big 10 (that sounds funny even to this day, I know, I chuckle)? So what's the bad news? Oh yeah, they return two on a D that was below average a year ago, including none in their front 7. YIKES! All Gophers fans can do is sit back and think about the days of their dreadlock tandems of running backs. Those were the days...

J Martin (Prediction: #11): It’s going to be a rough year in Minneapolis. I haven’t thought much of the Gophers for the past two seasons, but they’ve managed enough hocus pocus with the schedule to get bowl eligible in both. This season, the schedule is brutal, as they play USC and draw the consensus top 4 teams in the conference, and four of those games are at home (basically wasting home field advantage on teams they have no chance of beating). Even if they were good, they’d struggle. But despite returning nearly the entire offense, they lose their best player by far (Eric Decker), and Adam Weber is not a good quarterback at all. The defense was actually respectable last season, but they return only 2 starters in 2010. Minnesota has a nice new stadium. After this season, it might be time for the administration there to bring in a coach who can field a football team to match it.

Ross (Prediction: #11): As it stands, they're slated to return all of two starters and they'll be breaking in a new defensive coordinator, too. Expecting the Gophers to stop too many teams is a fool's errand. On the bright side, they return nine on offense, including fourth-year starter Adam Weber at QB. Of course, Weber is also working under his third or fourth different offensive coordinator, has regressed each year he's been there, and is without his safety blanket target (Eric Decker). Aside from Decker, they also return most of his top receivers, their leading rusher from a year ago, and their entire offensive line. But like Zook, Tim Brewster has managed the art of getting less out of his team and it's hard not to see them crumbling under the weight of a tough schedule (they entertain USC, Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa at home this year).

Northwestern Wildcats

Chris (Prediction: #7): Take your pick. It will be Purdue or Northwestern. Just like the middle of the Pac-10, this is truly hard to decide. Neither team brings much back, but Northwestern brings back 12 starters off of a surprising 8-5 team vs. Purdue bringing back 10 starters off of a decidedly average team a year ago. It's a fight to the finish, the only difference is, the winner only wins 7th place.

J Martin (Prediction: #5): Pat Fitzgerald has a really good thing going at Northwestern. And while I don’t see his program ever breaking through to contend for the Big 10 title, I also don’t see why he can’t keep winning about 8 games a year. He accomplishes the things that Bobby Johnson used to get credit for almost doing at Vanderbilt. The past 2 years, his Wildcats have finished 4th in the conference at 5-3. He generates this kind of consistency because his teams are always going to be focused around playing sound defense. This season, they return their entire starting linebacker unit. Their biggest challenge will be replacing the underrated Mike Kafka at QB, but presumptive starter Dan Persa gave Kafka a run for his money last off-season, and as a junior, he’s very familiar with the system. Their schedule divides neatly into two halves, and Northwestern could easily be 6-0 at the break. That could make them an extremely dangerous opponent to face late in the year, because they’ll already be bowl eligible and playing with house money, as they say. Revenge-minded Iowa should be wary heading into Evanston.

Ross (Prediction: #6): On the flipside of Michigan State, you have a team like Northwestern, who returns 4/5 of their offensive line but will be breaking in new starters at QB and two of the three starting WR spots. Still, Northwestern has usually done a fine job of finding unheralded players to come in and play at a high level at those spots. The defense features a lot of returning experience at LB and CB, but will be fielding new faces in the secondary and along the defensive line (where some newbie has the unpleasant task of trying to replace stud DE Corey Wooten). But Fitzgerald has proven himself to be an excellent coach, so it's not wise to bet against them too much. They'll probably lose to a team or two that they shouldn't, but they'll also beat a team or two that they shouldn't and will probably be a pesky out for each team on their schedule.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Chris (Prediction: #1): The Buckeyes are the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 10 and possibly even exorcise their demons by winning a national championship (though the Buckeyes do NOT want to see an SEC team meeting them there. Oh please, oh please, oh pretty please football gods! We knew you'd understand, we just can't beat the best of the best). Terrelle Pryor has been lambasted from the beginning of his sophomore year, the time in which fans thought he should have arrived and reached his potential. Instead, Pryor took baby steps until the Rose Bowl and then blew up. Fluke? I don't know, but I doubt it. I think some part of that guy has turned the corner. We'll see how much Pryor has grown when the Bucks go to Iowa for what will probably decide the conference champion. The defense lost some key cogs, but when does a Jim Tressel coached team not play good D? And they will again. Also running back is a concern. Nobody screams the next Beanie Wells. But I think Ohio State is a safe bet to at least take the Big 10, although I'm choosing not to speculate beyond that right now.

J Martin (Prediction: #1): I vacillated back and forth between the Buckeyes and Iowa as to which team was the best in the conference. It was a tough call. Both are loaded. Ultimately, I went with Ohio State. There isn't much negative you can say about this team on paper. They return a wealth of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. The only real question is which Terrelle Pryor is going to show up this season. The one from the Rose Bowl, or the one that had people calling for him to be moved to receiver? My guess is that he ends up close to Rose Bowl form. And if that's the case, the only thing standing in their way is a conference schedule that sees them go on the road to face their two biggest challenges this season, Iowa and Wisconsin. That almost tipped me in favor of the Hawkeyes. But then I remembered: these guys have developed into Big 10 road warriors over the past few years. Barring their epic brain fart against Purdue last year, the Buckeyes haven't lost a Big 10 away game since losing to Penn State in 2005. Kirk Ferentz does a great job at Iowa, but Jim Tressel has this program humming along on a much higher level than anybody else in the Big 10, and they know how to take care of business. They should win their 6th straight conference title, and maybe play in the BCS title game for the 4th time in the past decade if they can avoid another early season big game letdown against The U. They will then, of course, lose.

Ross (Prediction: #1): They return nine on offense and six on defense and have been so consistently dominant in the Big Ten that it's difficult to pick against them, no matter how much I'd like to. If the progress Pryor showed in the Rose Bowl was more than a one-game blip, the offense should be truly terrifying, as they'll have a dangerous passing game to go along with one of the nation's best rushing attacks. The defense has some key holes to fill (mainly, three spots along the defensive line), but OSU has done a better job of reloading than anyone else in the league, especially on defense... so it would be foolish to bet against them. Particularly since the guys they have starting this year are not fresh-faced newbies; they've seen a fair amount of action. The main potential red flag from them is the schedule, which has them facing their two toughest league rivals, Iowa and Wisconsin, on the the road.


Penn State Nittany Lions

Chris (Prediction: #4): The Big 10 is really a 3-team race (sorry if this is the first you've heard of this JoePa), but Penn State is right behind that group. Kevin Newsome should be a capable replacement for Darryl Clark in the athleticism department, but Clark brought such intangibles and leadership to the position that I think it is unlikely to expect Newsome to come right in and resume that role. In fact, he may never reach that level. To be honest, I don't know whether to be more worried about the offense or the defense. Neither will be bad, but neither will be spectacular. Because of Evan Royster I will go with the D. Royster's workload will probably increase, which is cause for concern because his statline DRAMATICALLY decreased a year ago, to the tune of 500 or so yards. However, I myself am in love with Royster's game, and I think he'll recover this year, posting equally as gaudy stats as two years ago.

J Martin (Prediction: #4): On paper, this looks like a very mediocre Penn State team to me. They have the schedule to still win 9 games and play in a nice bowl, but I don’t think they’re a threat to Iowa or Ohio State. Obviously, the main problem on offense is quarterback. They have no one with any experience. They have a couple of incoming freshmen who are promising (I hear Robert Bolden is impressing in camp), but knowing Joe Paterno, he’s going to go with the most steady upper classman until the wheels fall off. Of course, the “upper classmen” in question are sophomores, so regardless, the passing game is going to be WAY down. That means it’s going to fall to Evan Royster to carry the offense on the ground. And while he’s a talented guy, that’s going to be somewhat of a new role for him, and its difficult to say if he’s cut out for it. Defensively, they should be typically stout, which will be their saving grace. However, with the loss of their top 3 linebackers, as well as Jared Odrick on the line, they may not be an elite defense in 2010.

Ross (Prediction: #4): PSU returns plenty on offense (the majority of the offensive line, all their top receivers, and Evan Royster and Stephon Green at RB)... but they have a major question mark at QB, where they still haven't settled on a starter to replace Daryll Clark. That's definitely a concern, especially since they have to go on the road to Alabama and Iowa in their first five weeks. The defense returns just five and will need to find a pair of new starters along the defensive line and a trio of new linebackers. Fortunately, aside from OSU, no one in the Big Ten has done a better job of just reloading on defense than PSU; they have some highly-talented players waiting in the wings to step in and start at LB and along the defensive line. Really, the thing that damages this team the most might be the schedule: they should be a team that improves as the season progresses, but their schedule features some of their toughest games at the start of the season. That could be difficult to overcome.

Purdue Boilermakers

Chris (Prediction: #8): Take a look at Northwestern for my logic. If I'm wrong, see Robert Marve as the reason.

J Martin (Prediction: #8): The Boilermakers have been a better team than their overall record might have led you to believe the past 2 years. In 2009, they actually went 4-4 in the Big 10, and, if not for a slip-up against Northern Illinois, they would have gone to a bowl. This year’s team looks very similar to the past two, in the sense that they don’t wow you with their number of returning starters, but they’re not dreadfully undermanned either. So with their home-and-home series with Oregon coming to an end, and a much lesser opponent coming on, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t achieve bowl eligibility. They should win at least 3 of their non-conference games (Notre Dame is a toss-up), and they get three key conference “swing” games at home (Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana). The x-factor here will be new quarterback Robert Marve. If he finally has his head on straight, look out. He has an excellent receiving target in Keith Smith, and they can make this offense dangerous.

Ross (Prediction: #8): Robert Marve is a reason for hope as he takes over the QB position (unless you remember him imploding at Miami two years ago, although Purdue fans would rather you didn't mention that), and he has some good targets to throw to (particularly WR Keith Smith)... if the rebuilt offensive line (2/5 starters back) can give him enough protection to find them. RB is a possible trouble spot; Ralph Bolden emerged as a real threat in the Big Ten a year ago, but suffered a significant knee injury in spring practice and may not be ready to go this fall. The defense features one bona fide star (DE Ryan Kerrigan, the best player in the Big Ten that no one talks about) and a number of returning starters in the front seven (3/4 of the defensive line, all three linebackers)... but a host of new faces in the secondary. So Purdue could be in line for quite a few shootouts in 2010; we'll see just how far Marve has come from his Miami days.

Wisconsin Badgers

Chris (Prediction: #3): Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema has filled in seamlessly for Barry Alvarez as the Badgers head coach. He maintained the power running game that his predecessor thrived on, with big backs like P.J. Hill and now John Clay. Expect the Badgers to be pretty amazing offensively, where they return every starter but their fullback. Defensively it might be a work in progress, but the offense has such firepower and can control the clock with their style of play that I don't think the D's flaws will stand out. Wisconsin was only one of 6 teams that averaged 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing a season ago. Expect them to be in that category again, and given a slip up by one of the two above them, they could be seeing roses.

J Martin (Prediction: #3): The recipe for success remains the same as it has for the past 15 or 20 years: take a big, fat running back, line him up behind an even bigger, fatter offensive line, and just run over people. This season, the Badgers have an incredibly experienced big, fat offensive line (109 total starts), and return the big, fat Big 10 offensive player of the year, not to mention another good one in Montee Ball. In fact, they return just about everyone of consequence on offense except Garrett Graham. Scott Tolzien wasn’t overly impressive at QB last year, but he came on strong towards the end, and this team doesn’t need him to be more than an effective game manager. If he cuts his interception total in half, Wisconsin will be tough to beat. They have a very easy non-conference schedule and a favorable conference slate, including Ohio State at home. The only trick is that they have to go to Iowa to play the very next week. But if they take care of business against the Buckeyes at home, they could very well ride that momentum to a victory over the Hawkeyes. Of course…I could also see them going into the tank against Iowa if they lose to OSU. So that’s the critical stretch. 10 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team.

Ross (Prediction: #3): The Badgers are loaded on offense, especially along the line where they return all five starters. Those five behemoths should open plenty of holes for John Clay and Montee Ball and give Scott Tolzien time to hit open receivers on play-action passes. On the other hand, their defense returns only six starters (including just one on the defensive line) and they've been banged up in preseason camp, with two of their best returning defenders (LB Chris Borland and SS Jay Valai) missing time with injuries. The schedule is also a little nasty, as they get Ohio State and Iowa back-to-back. Bielema's done a solid job of beating the teams he should beat at Wisco, but he's struggled to get over the hump and beat the top dogs.

CFBZ Predicted Big Ten 2010 Standings
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Iowa Hawkeyes
3. Wisconsin Badgers
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Northwestern Wildcats
7. Michigan Wolverines
8. Purdue Boilermakers
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Indiana Hoosiers
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers