Bowl Predictions Part 4 (1/7-1/10)

Here is the final part of our Bowl Season Predictions including the National Championship Game. In case you missed the first, second, and third rounds of bowl predictions just click on the links to catch up on what you missed. As of the printing of this blog Ross is 16-12 and I am 17-11 in our predictions.

Cotton Bowl (1/7 8pm on FOX)
LSU (10-2) vs. Texas A&M (9-3)

Kevin's Prediction: LSU 28 TEXAS A&M 27
As an SEC homer it's really tough for me to pick against the SEC. Especially against the SEC West. Yes, Arkansas lost but Ohio State was playing 5 guys who should have been sitting and Bobby Petrino is a gutless coward who deserves to lose every game he coaches. Back to LSU...there is just something about them. Under CRAZY Les Miles they just find a way to win. They have some pretty impressive victories this year against Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, UNC and West Virginia. LSU's two losses were to Auburn and Arkansas and they haven't lost by more than 8 points all year long. A&M went through a rough stretch earlier this year when they lost 3 straight (also lost to Arkansas) but they have rebounded to win 6 straight including impressive wins against Oklahoma and Nebraska. This one is a coin flip and in a coin flip you go with the guy with the luck.

Ross's Prediction: LSU 27 TEXAS A&M 24

The Big 12 has enjoyed an underwhelming bowl season (except for the efforts of the Oklahoma schools, really), which casts some doubt on the strength of Texas A&M.  LSU, meanwhile, emerged with 10 wins from the toughest division in college football (the SEC West) -- no small feat, that, and a big reason why I'll back them to get the win here.  But it will be close because that's the only way Les Miles know how to play 'em, with the Tigers pulling out a win after an onside kick, a fake punt, and a flea-flicker on a fourth-down conversion.  Prepare for the latest Miracle now.

BBVA Compass Bowl (1/8 Noon on ESPN)

Pittsburgh (7-5) vs. Kentucky (6-6)

Kevin's Prediction: PITT 27 KENTUCKY 17

Kentucky didn't exactly close the year with a bang as they went 2-3 with their wins coming over mighty Vandy and Charleston Southern. Oh yeah, and Mike Hartline went out and got himself suspended for this game. If Hartline was playing I probably take Kentucky by 10, but he's not. Watch out for Randall Cobb but I think Pittsburgh, despite all of their coaching issues, finds a way to win this one.

Ross's Prediction: KENTUCKY 31, PITT 17

On one hand, you have a member of the SEC East, a division so mediocre its teams have gone 1-3 and lost to teams from C-USA and the ACC.  On the other hand, you have a member of the Big East, a conference that is seemingly perpetually mediocre -- and especially so this year.  Oh, and that team has major head coaching drama.  The SEC East isn't very good -- but even they can beat an also-ran from the Big East that's mired in controversy.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (1/9 9pm on ESPN)

Nevada (12-1) vs. Boston College (7-5)

Kevin's Prediction: NEVADA 27 BC 21

BC's season has been one of streaks. They won two to start off the year, then they lost 5 straight games (all to bowl teams) and then they finished up with 5 straight wins (beating 3 really bad teams and 2 decent teams). All-in-all BC has had a disappointing year from a team that CFBZ picked to come in second place in the Coastal Division. Nevada has feasted on powers like Eastern Washington, Colorado State, Idaho, UNLV, San Jose State, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech (where can Georgia get one of these schedules?). But they've also won a few games against teams that actually play football (Cal, BYU, Fresno State and Boise State). I have a tough time picking a team to win that lost to Hawaii but I'm going to do it anyway. Kaepernick wins this one for Nevada in a nail-biter.  

Ross's Prediction: NEVADA 38, BOSTON COLLEGE 20

Nevada got bushwhacked in their bowl game a year ago, but I don't think that will happen to this year's bunch.  B.C. has a quality defense and has had an eon to prepare for the Nevada offense, but I think Colin Kaepernick and Vaia Taua will end their Wolfpack careers on a high note, with a decisive bowl win.

BCS National Championship Game (1/10 8:30pm on ESPN)

Auburn (13-0) vs. Oregon (12-0)

Kevin's Prediction: AUBURN 34 OREGON 28

I've pretty much been a non-believer in Auburn all year long up until the SEC Championship Game. I think I picked them to lose in pretty much every game up until that game. While Auburn is very close to a  one-man team they do have a good supporting cast. Cam Newton has simply been amazing this year. They guy just doesn't feel the pressure. They learned how to win early in the year by holding on to beat Mississippi State and surviving Clemson in OT. They came from 13 down and forced 4 4th quarter turnovers to beat Spurrier and South Carolina in their regular season date. They held off a late rally by a game Kentucky squad. Maybe the game where people started taking them seriously was when they put 65 up against Arkansas in a PS3 like game. Auburn beat a good LSU team in a close game. Georgia jumped up on Auburn 21 to 7 in the 1st quarter but Cam and Auburn didn't blink and came back and won by 3 scores. The best comeback of the season was the one against Alabama. People turned off their TV sets after Bama took a 24-0 lead in the 2nd quarter. But Auburn showed us what they are made of and came back and beat the Tide by 1 point. If there is one thing I've learned about Auburn this year it's not to pick against them. They have a guy with big play power and incredible moxie in Cam Newton on the offensive side of the ball and they have the dirtiest, filthiest, nastiest defensive player in the game in Nick Fairley. Fairley would blindside his grandma after the whistle if he thought it would help his team win a game. Dude speared Aaron Murray in the back of his spine with his helmet five seconds after Murray released a pass (would have been a multiple game game suspension if it happened in the NFL). I really like Oregon ,but I Auburn has proved this year that I can't pick against them (as much as I want to).

Ross's Prediction: AUBURN 45, OREGON 42
I hope you like scoring because this should be a point orgy.  Granted, we've said that in the past and wound up with a defensive struggle (see: Florida-Oklahoma two years ago), but this match-up seems unlikely to produce such an odd result; these two offenses are so potent and so high-powered that it's hard to see them getting slowed for long -- especially against defenses that aren't exactly ironclad.  The thing to watch here will be the pace: Oregon wants to play at a furiously high tempo, and while Auburn is also capable of playing at a high tempo, they may want to slow things down a little to enable their defense to have a shot at making some plays.  Like so many recent title games, this match-up pits one Heisman finalist (Cam Newton) against another (LaMichael James), although Oregon's success will probably depend more on how Darron Thomas fares throwing the ball than anything.  Oregon has been a breathtaking team to watch this year and they've been very good -- but it's too hard to bet against the SEC at this point, or to pick against Cam Newton.  I think he has the best performance in a title game since Vince Young five years ago and leaves us all staring, slack-jawed and wondrous at what we just saw.

The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 23-25

Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.

LAST WEEK: 5-1
OVERALL: 12-6

#19 Miami (1-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Both teams have been off since 9/11/10, so they should be well-rested and well-prepared for this game, which pits two former Big East rivals against one another, both of whom could really use an impressive win to regain some of their season's lost momentum. Miami's had two weeks to stew over a loss to Ohio State in which any chance they might have had at springing the upset was killed by Jacory Harris' four interceptions, while Pittsburgh hasn’t played an opponent with a pulse since their opening night stumble at Utah. (They beat New Hampshire two weeks ago.) In a battle of two coaches who recruit well but frequently struggle on game day, I’d usually say go with the guy with the better talent on hand (which seems like Miami, by a hair). On the other hand, it’s not often wise to bet against the home underdog on Thursday night, so I’ll grudgingly side with the Wannstache in this one.
THE PICK: PITT 27, MIAMI 21

#1 Alabama (3-0) @ #10 Arkansas (3-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
The season’s second all-top ten clash (after the Boise State-Virginia Tech thriller in week one) was one of the more anticipated games of the SEC slate before the season began and even before Arkansas seemed likely to be ranked in the top ten, owing to Arkansas’ status as the sexy dark horse pick in the SEC. After nearly toppling Florida last year and having a solid season, Arkansas was expected to be a major threat this year with nearly all of their offensive firepower back, an improved defense, and, in this game a match-up advantage (Ryan Mallett and Arkansas’ high-powered passing offense versus Alabama’s inexperienced secondary), and homefield. On the other hand, Alabama has cruised through the opening three weeks with nary a speedbump, even without the services of two of their best players, RB Mark Ingram and DT/DT Marcell Dareus for the opening two games. They both returned last week and Alabama obliterated Duke, 62-13. They are scary good – again. Still, even the best teams are going to have tough games and this looks like one of Alabama’s toughest games of the year. It’s also the beginning of a brutal three-game stretch that sees road trips to Arkansas and South Carolina bookended around a home game against Florida. Then again, with Saban in charge, their eyes should be firmly on the obstacle in front of them, which is Arkansas and Mallett. And it’s tough to pick against the defending champs when they’re playing so lights-out. So as much as I want to go for the upset…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, ARKANSAS 28

#12 South Carolina (3-0) @ #17 Auburn (3-0) (7:45pm EST, ESPN)
There are few things stranger than watching architect of the Fun-n-Gun offense that revolutionized the passing game in the SEC become a disciple of the cro-mag football that’s long characterized the Big Ten, but then again running backs like Marcus Lattimore don’t come along every day, so even a passing guru like Steve Spurrier knows when to ride that horse as long as possible. Granted, it’s not like Spurrier’s been allergic to the running game in the past (even at Florida he churned out quality tailbacks like some guy by the name of Emmitt Smith) and if Stephen Garcia was your main option at quarterback, it’s easy to see why pounding away on the ground seems a little more palatable… but still: kinda weird. Meanwhile, Gene Chizik’s Auburn squad has its own freshman stud running back in Michael Dyer, although he’s only the third most prolific runner on this team, behind QB Cameron Newton and fellow RB Ontero McCalebb. Newton continues to be a work in progress in the passing game, but he’s a definite threat on the ground. With two powerful running games and two nasty, hard-hitting defenses (the Auburn-Clemson game a week ago seemed to feature a game-stopping injury every third play), this one should be the kind of game Bo and Woody would have enjoyed, even if it is dressed up in SEC colors. Auburn has the homefield edge, but they’ve looked like the shakier side so far and it’s hard to shake the feeling that this could finally be the year that South Carolina breaks through.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 17, AUBURN 13

#24 Oregon State (1-1) @ #3 Boise State (3-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
For the first time ever, College GameDay’s headed to Boise to party on the Smurf Turf as Boise State continues their inexorable march to, at the very least, a third BCS bowl appearance in the last five years – and perhaps even a BCS Championship Game appearance if a few things can break their way. Oregon State represents the last chance for one of the power conferences to derail the Broncos before they can crash the big boy party; all they have to do is accomplish the nigh-impossible: beat Boise on that aforementioned Smurf Turf. You could count the number of games Boise has lost on their home field in recent years on one hand, even if that one hand was a stump. They basically never, ever lose there. Oregon State gave TCU a run in the opener, but they struggled to put away a middling Louisville team traveling thousands of miles to Corvalis, OR last week; maybe they were just looking ahead to their big showdown with Boise, but it doesn’t breed much confidence. Meanwhile, Boise rebounded from seeing their national spotlight win over Virginia Tech lose almost all of its luster after the Hokies got knocked off by James Madison by turning around and curbstomping Wyoming last week. They seem pretty focused on doing what they need to do, which is just beating everyone in front of them. If this game was anywhere but Boise, I would give Oregon State a slight chance at the upset. But in Boise? Not happening.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE 37, OREGON STATE 24

#22 West Virginia (3-0) @ #15 LSU (3-0) (9:00pm EST, ESPN2)
Can ESPN just air three hours of these two fanbases tailgating and hanging out before the game? That’s almost guaranteed to be more interesting than whatever these two winning-but-flawed football teams do on the field, given how passionate (read: totally goddamn insane) their fans are. I would not want to be a cop in Baton Rouge on Saturday night. Anyway, the game. LSU enters the game as the sole team in the FBS who’s managed to record three wins over fellow BCS teams; sure those three teams were SEC bottomfeeders Vanderbilt and Mississippi State and a hugely depleted North Carolina team, but hey: wins over teams that aren’t just there to collect a fat paycheck are nothing to sniff about at this stage of the season. After inexplicably giving up a career day to North Carolina’s TJ Yates, the LSU defense has buckled down considerably, holding Vandy and MSU to a combined 10 points and roughly 400 yards of total offense. Which is good because the LSU offense has looked a mite sluggish; they needed big second halves to break open both games. West Virginia’s 3-0 mark contains two wins over FBS competition, but they haven’t looked hugely impressive in doing so; they needed a quasi-miraculous comeback to get by in-state rivals Marshall two weeks ago and they let Maryland hang around for a good chunk of the game a week ago. Geno Smith is emerging as a solid quarterback (71/101, 800 yards, 7/1 TD/INT), but he hasn’t faced a defense nearly as brutal as LSU’s, nor a cornerback as impenetrable as Patrick Peterson, and while Noel Devine is slippery, busting off runs against CUSA and ACC defenses is one thing; doing it against one of the SEC’s best is another. And picking against LSU in Death Valley at night? You must be crazy.
THE PICK: LSU 27, WEST VIRGINIA 14

Cal (2-1) @ #14 Arizona (3-0) (10:00pm EST, FSN)
Arizona is the team of the moment, and justifiably so after picking up one of the young season's signature wins in knocking off a top-ten team in Iowa. But the college football season is a marathon, not a sprint; it's one thing to get amped up for one big night game on national TV, against an opponent that your coach has history with and that you wanted to beat to avenge a loss from last fall -- it's another thing entirely to be able to maintain that level of focus and passion throughout eight, nine, or ten more games. Arizona was well-coached and well-prepared for their game with Iowa and executed their gameplan very well... but 18-22 year olds can't (and won't) execute at that level, week in and week out. So the trick becomes winning when you aren't at your best. And a week after such a big win, after spending all week reading stories about how great they are and how they've shed the "mediocre" or "underachiever" labels that have dogged them in the past, it would be an absolute stunner if there wasn't a little bit of a hangover there. On the flipside, Cal's coming off one of the most humiliating losses of Jeff Tedford's tenure, a game in which their defense got utterly destroyed by Nevada's Colin Kaepernick. But they're not as bad as they looked in that game and they have the talent to give Arizona some troubles if their heads aren't totally in the game. On the other hand, the home team has won five straight in this series...
THE PICK: ARIZONA 34, CAL 30

Game Re-Cap: Utah 27 Pitt 24

I had Pitt at #16 and Utah at #22 in my pre-season poll so this one looked like it would be a close one. Ross picked Utah to win 27-23 in his Six-Pack preview. Here is a breakdown of the action:

1st Quarter

Dion Lewis got 18 yards on his first carry but Pitt got too cute after easily picking up a first down on their first set of downs and had to punt on their first drive. Utah moved the ball well on their first drive but they fumbled and gave Pitt the ball in Utah territory. Dion Lewis reminds me a little of Warrick Dunn due to his size and the way he bounces around trying to juke and jive. Pitt missed a very makeable 42 yard FG. Utah's offense looked better than Pitt's in the 1st stanza but they came away with nothing to show for it.

2nd Quarter

Utah made a huge mistake on a Pitt punt. The Utah return man ran up to catch the ball, called for a fair catch, and let it hit off his hands and Pitt recovered. Two fumbles for Utah’s Smithson in the first 15 minutes of the season. Pitt got the ball inside the Utah 30 to start the second quarter. Pitt drove the ball and Dion Lewis scored on a short TD run. Utah brought this score on themselves as they were losing the early turnover battle 2-0.

Pitt 7 Utah 0

Matt Asiata broke off a good 15 yard run right up the middle to get the ball to mid-field. Jordan Wynn then started to get into a groove  and hit multiple receivers before connecting over the middle for a TD to Jeremy Brooks. Very impressive TD drive from Utah.

Pitt 7 Utah 7

After Utah scored, the Pitt returner let the ball hit off of him and it bounced about 15 yards and Utah recovered. Turnover battle: Utah 2 Pitt 1. Utah took over on the Pitt 35 and Jordan Wynn stood back in the pocket and delivered a 24 yard pass down the sideline that would have been a TD if the receiver could have stayed in bounds. Utah ran a good roll out and Wynn hit an easy TD pass. The Utah offense is looking good.

Utah 14 Pitt 7

Utah started off the next defensive series with a sack of Tino Sunseri for a loss of 9 yards. Pitt quickly went three and out. On third and long RB Eddie Wide took a hand-off and broke a tackle and went 20 yards to keep the drive going. Wynn launched a jump ball and the Utah receiver did a great job stopping his route and making a play on the ball and coming down with the catch. Utah had the ball inside the 10, Pitt put on a blitz and Wynn threw one up and the Pitt defender got a huge pick in the end zone to keep this game from starting to get out of hand. Pitt ran down the clock and considered themselves lucky to be down only 7 points.

3rd Quarter

Utah got the ball first and Wynn hit Brooks on a crossing route for 46 yards down near the red zone. Pittsburgh held tough inside the red zone but Utah was able to hit a FG to go up two scores.

Utah 17 Pitt 7

Pitt is just too one dimensional on offense and Utah is really keying in on Dion Lewis. Potential game-changing special teams play as Pitt blocked a punt and got the ball inside the 10 yard line. Utah up by 10 at this point but has 3 turnovers and has given up a block punt. The Pitt offense went backwards but K Dan Hutchins was able to get one just inside the goal posts from 37 yards out. The only reason Pitt is in this game is because of Utah’s mistakes.

Utah 17 Pitt 10

Utah went 3 and out and Wynn looked a little bit ruffled. Pitt started to put together a drive before the 3rd quarter ended.

4th Quarter

Dion Lewis took a pitch and just got smothered for a loss of 5 yards. After getting a gutty 4th and 1 conversion Pitt went backwards on three straight plays and had to settle for a FG. Hutchins hit an easy 29 yarder. This was Pitt’s first good drive of the entire game but they came up short of getting the ball in the end zone.

Utah 17 Pitt 13

Wynn hit a slant to Davonte Christopher for 60 yards and a TD! Big time play. 8 minutes left but that one should just about do it unless a different Pitt team comes out for the next kickoff.

Utah 24 Pitt 13

Johnathon Baldwin got wide open and Sunseri hit him with a high arching 40 yard TD pass. Pitt went for two and went to Baldwin again for a successful conversion. Pitt moved from hammering the ball unsuccessfully with Dion Lewis to passing to Baldwin and it really paid off on this drive.

Utah 24 Pitt 21

Pitt stopped Utah and Utah shanked a punt with just three minutes left in the game. The punt didn't even make it past mid-field. Sunseri hit a big pass over the middle for 20 yards with only 20 seconds left in the game. Hutchins knocked down a game-tying FG.

Pitt 24 Utah 24

But wait, apparently the FG did not count and Utah was given a timeout to “ice” the kicker. Hutchins misses left but the whistles were blowing before the kick missed and Utah had called another time out. Doh! Finally, Hutchins got a real kick and just barely squeezes it inside the up-rights.

Overtime

Utah won the toss and deferred. Sunseri rolled out but he held onto the ball too long and under-threw his receiver. The Utah DB broke in front and got a huge interception. Utah just pounded the ball up the middle and inside the 5 yard line. Utah kicker Joe Phillips came on and won the game with a 21 yard FG

Final Score: Utah 27 Pitt 24

Lots of mistakes in this game in the form of turnovers and penalties. Big win for Utah. Jordan Wynn looked impressive throughout most of the game but still showed his inexperience by hoisting a few passes that he should not have thrown. I would expect Utah to be 8-0 when they go to TCU on Nov 6th to seek revenge on the Horned Frogs (the Frogs put up 55 on Utah last year). For Pitt, this was a tough loss. Pitt is expected to contend for the Big East title (here on the blog we actually picked them to win the league, although I will mention my pick for the conference is West Virginia). Pitt really had some poor playing calling in the first half and got too one dimensional in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. I think Pitt and Sunseri will get better as the year goes on. Despite Pitt not playing very well tonight they were in the game and had a chance to win at the end but could not pull it off. Pitt has a gimme next week but then they face another tough battle against Miami and if they play the way they did tonight my money will be on Miami.

Player of the Game
Jordan Wynn, QB, Utah
21 of 36 for 283 yds, 3 TD and 1 INT

Star Watch
Dion Lewis, RB, Pitt
25 carries for 75 yds, 1 TD, 1 reception

Jon Baldwin, WR, Pitt
4 rec for 71 yds, 1 TD

DeVonte Christopher, WR, Utah
8 rec for 155 yds, 1 TD

Jereme Brooks, WR, Utah
5 rec for 87 yds, 2 TD

The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 2-6

Every week, I'll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who's going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.

THURSDAY, SEP. 2

Pittsburgh @ Utah (8:30pm EST, Versus)

While ESPN continues to torment us with a third-straight year of featuring South Carolina in the Thursday-night opener, Versus has stepped up to the plate with a game of actual intrigue. Unlike most opening week affairs, it pits two teams with a pulse against one another; in fact, these two teams are legitimate contenders to win their respective conferences. So it's got that going for it. It's also a rematch of the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, which would probably be more meaningful if it hadn't been, you know, one of the worst BCS bowl games in recent memory. You're probably going to watch just about anything on the first night of real college football in eight months, but here's a game that shouldn't just be empty calories.

THE PICK: Utah 27, Pitt 23

SATURDAY, SEP. 4

Purdue @ Notre Dame (3:30pm EST, NBC)

I wouldn't normally focus on a game featuring two unranked teams in this feature, but the pickings are slim on the opening weekend and this game should actually be fairly intriguing. On one side you've got Purdue entering Year 2 of the Danny Hope Era with hopes of new QB Robert Marve and stud DE Ryan Kerrigan spearheading a dark horse Big Ten challenge -- or at least a return to a bowl game for the first time in three years. On the other side you've got Notre Dame getting their first taste of life without Charlie Weis -- and life with Brian Kelly. Love or loathe Notre Dame, their first steps under Brian Kelly should be interesting -- and if you like high-scoring passing offenses, this game should have a couple good ones.

THE PICK: Notre Dame 34, Purdue 31

Connecticut @ Michigan (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)

UConn's a slightly under the radar pick to win the Big East, and a win over Michigan (even Michigan in its current emaciated state) would be a hell of a way to jump-start that campaign. They have plenty of returning talent from a squad that was just a few plays away from being a 10-win team a year ago and they have a hard-nosed, underrated coach in Randy Edsall who's resisted overtures from bigger programs to try and do something special in Storrs; this year's team may be his best bet to do just that. Meanwhile, Michigan enters the season with a defensive secondary in shambles, uncertainty at quarterback, the lingering malaise of the last two bowl-less seasons, and a coach under intense fire to prove that his system can work in Ann Arbor. Oh, and Michigan's lost two of their last three season openers. So, you know, no pressure or anything.

THE PICK: UConn 35, Michigan 28

TCU vs. Oregon State (7:45pm EST, ESPN)

Boise State gets most of the preseason plaudits among the non-BCS crowd since they return twenty starters and are coming off a 14-0 season and a win over this same TCU team in the Fiesta Bowl. On the other hand, TCU returns a ton of talent in their own right (9 on offense, 7 on defense) and should be very, very good in their own right. This game is an early (and rare, given their normal presence on the TV ghetto that is The MTN) chance for them to state their case in front of a national audience, which should have them plenty fired up. Given their relative starting positions in the polls TCU is likely going to need Boise State to slip up somewhere to move ahead of them in the hunt for a guaranteed BCS slot -- or even a spot in the national title game, which is a realistic possibility with both teams starting in the top 10. But in Oregon State, TCU should have a solid test on their hands; the Beavers have to break in a new QB, but they do bring back both of the fabulous Rodgers brothers.

THE PICK: TCU 31, Oregon State 17

LSU vs. North Carolina (8:00pm EST, ABC)

To be fair, this game looked a hell of a lot more interesting before damn near the entire North Carolina starting defense was rumored to be suspended for various rules violations; back before that it looked like it was going to pit a pair of nasty defenses and two teams that are vaguely dark horse picks to win their respective conferences. Now you have a UNC team mired in scandal, likely to be missing multiple players off what was expected to be a very strong defense. LSU has question marks of their own, but nothing like what UNC is facing and they have the added benefit of not having to deal with distracting scandals and having a better offense. This game has turned into a de facto SEC-ACC Challenge; so far the SEC is 2-0, with Alabama picking up wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech. LSU should make it three in a row without too much difficulty.

THE PICK: LSU 27, UNC 14

MONDAY, SEP. 6

Boise State vs. Virginia Tech (8:00pm EST, ESPN)

These are the games where Boise has excelled in their rise to prominence over the past few years, splashy non-conference showdowns in which they have weeks to prepare for their opponent. And, as has been noted in just about every preview written about them, they return 20 of 22 starters from last year's 14-0 team. That's a good thing. On the other hand, they've never quite played a game like this one; the game is ostensibly at a "neutral site," but it's in FedEx Field at Washington, D.C., a few skips and jump away from the Hokies' home base in Blacksburg, VA -- and quite a few hops away from Boise. There should be no lack of motivation from the Hokies, either; they're ranked high enough to largely control their own national title destiny at this stage of the season and a win over a top-5 squad like Boise will only shoot them higher. Past BSU victims in high-profile games (Oklahoma in the '07 Fiesta or TCU in the '10 Fiesta) could point to the fact that the Fiesta Bowl was a consolation prize; Oklahoma had missed out on the national title game because of a pair of regular season losses (to Colorado and Texas Tech), while TCU had missed out on the national title game on account of Texas' last-second field goal in the Big XII Conference Championship Game. There won't be any such issues hampering Virginia Tech this year and there should be little reason for them to overlook Boise State after Boise's near-constant success over the past five years. There are some interesting match-ups to watch in the game, too; can Boise handle Virginia Tech's punishing running game (which should be even better with a healthy Darren Evans to spell Ryan Williams) and the athleticism of Tyrod Taylor? Conversely, can Virginia Tech's rebuilt defense handle the high-powered and experienced Boise offense, especially the pinpoint passing of Kellen Moore? It should be a fascinating battle.

THE PICK: Virginia Tech 28, Boise State 21

Big East Preview

2009 Standings
Cincinnati 12-1 (7-0)
Pittsburgh 10-3 (5-2)
West Virginia 9-4 (5-2)
Rutgers 9-4 (3-4)
Connecticut 8-5 (3-4)
South Florida (8-5 (3-4)
Louisville 4-8 (1-6)
Syracuse 4-8 (1-6)

Returning Leaders: Passing
Tom Savage, Rutgers, Soph (149 of 285 for 2211 yds, 14 TD, 7 INT)
B.J. Daniels, USF, Soph (122 of 227 for 1983, 14 TD, 9 INT)
Zach Collaros, Cincy, Jr (93 of 124 for 1434, 10 TD, 2 INT)

Returning Leaders: Rushing
Dion Lewis, Pitt, Soph (325 carries for 1799 yds, 17 TD, 5.5 ypc)
Noel Devine, WVU, Sr (241 carries for 1465 yds, 13 TD, 6.0 ypc)
Jordan Todman, UConn, Jr (235 carries for 1188 yds, 14 TD, 5.0 ypc)
Delone Carter, Syracuse, Sr (236 carries for 1021 yds, 11 TD, 4.3 ypc)
Joe Martinek, Rutgers, Jr (206 carries for 967 yds, 4.6 ypc)

Returning Leaders: Receiving
Jock Sanders, WVU, Sr (72 rec for 688 yds, 3 TD, 5.5 rec/game)
Armon Binns, Cincy, Sr (61 rec for 888 yds, 11 TD, 4.7 rec/game)
Jonathan Baldwin, Pitt, Jr (57 rec for 1111 yds, 8 TD, 4.4 rec/game)
D.J. Woods, Cincy, Jr (51 rec for 640 yds, 4 TD, 4.3 rec/game)
Mohamed Sanu, Rutgers, Soph (51 Rec for 639 yds, 3 TD, 3.9 rec/game)

Returning Leaders: Tackles
Lawrence Wilson, UConn, Sr, LB (140 total, 10.77 tackles/game)
J.K. Schaffer, Cincy, Jr, LB (100 total, 7.69 tackles/game)
Max Gruder, Pitt, Jr, LB (91 total, 7.00 tackles/game)
Greg Lloyd, UConn, Sr, LB (91 total, 8.27 tackles/game)
Dom DeCicco, Pitt, Sr, DB (88 total, 6.7 tackles/game)

Returning Leaders: Sacks
Doug Hogue, Syracuse, Sr, LB (9.5 sacks)
Jonathan Freeny, Rutgers, Sr, DL (9.5)
Julian Miller, WVU, Jr, DL (8.0)
Greg Romeus, Pitt, Sr, DL (8.0)

Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Robert Sands, WVU, Jr, DB (5 interceptions)
Elijah Fields, Pitt, Sr, DB (3)
Michael Holmes, Syracuse, Sr, DB (3)
J.K. Schaffer, Cincy, Jr, LB (3)
Keith Tandy, WVU, Jr, DB (3)
Jarred Holley, Pitt, Soph, DB (3)
Dom DeCicco, Pitt, Sr, DB (3)

Around the Blogosphere

Who is your pick to win the Big East?

Brian Harrison of the Syracuse based blog Orange 44:

I’m picking Pittsburgh.

What could hurt Pitt is their losses on the offensive line. As much as Pitt likes to pound the ball, they will have to recover. They will have another solid offensive year, with new QB sophomore Tino Sunseri behind center. Pitt likes to run the ball more though and they have some great running backs in Dion Lewis, who despite not starting, earned 1,799 yards. Pitt’s fullback, Henry Hynoski, is a straight beast and will give defensive lines and linebackers some nightmares. He doesn’t carry the ball that often, but what he does do is plow the road for running backs. The defense meanwhile has a strong nuclease around Greg Romeus, Greg Williams and Dom Decicco, and should be just fine in stopping both the run and the pass fairly effectively this coming season. They are my pick to win the league.

USF Blogger The Bull Gator:

I'll go with Pitt for the 2010 conference title.  This isn't an easy year to pick at all, but I have to go with the Panthers.  Louisville and USF challenging for a title is a year or two away and Cincy could take a step back with a new coach.  I think the Big East is Pitt's to lose in 2010.

West Virginia Blogger John Radcliff of Eers To You:

I really do think it's WVU's to lose. With 18/19 starters returning, there's no reason this shouldn't be a much more consistent team. Yes, the QB position is still an unknown. But I think this offensive line is going to be much improved and the running backs are going to have a field day with anyone that doesn't put 8 or nine in the box.

There are going to be a lot of good teams in the Big East this year. Good enough that one or two losses in conference might be good enough to win the conference. In my mind, the winner of the WVU-Pitt game will win the Big East.

What is the pivotal game this year?

Brian Harrison of the Syracuse based blog Orange 44:

West Virginia v. Pittsburgh

While UConn thinks they have a great chance to win the league this year, I just don’t see them doing better than really talented Pittsburgh and the always dangerous West Virginia. While Bill Stewart seems like a country buffoon (and he may be), he’s still winning games. He’s 19-8 at WVU and while they have a new QB in the works, they still have running back Noel Devine. For Pittsburgh they have a solid replacement coming out of spring in Tino Sunseri. He’s athletic and has a good arm. I think they have the most talent currently and this game, the “Backyard Brawl”, should decide the outcome of the season for the Big East.

USF Blogger The Bull Gator:

Any game Pitt plays.  There are 4 or 5 teams that could win the Big East and if I'm going with Pitt then every game they play is the most pivotal.  It's hard to predict the Big East any year.  This year is no different.  Pitt could lose it any weekend.  A two-game losing streak and suddenly someone else is the favorite.

CFBZ Players of the Year

1. Noel Devine, Sr, RB, West Virgina
2. Dion Lewis, Soph, RB, Pittsburgh
3. Zach Collaros, Jr, QB, Cincinnati
4. BJ Daniels, Soph, QB, USF
5. Tom Savage, Soph, QB, Rutgers

Also receiving votes: Greg Romeus/Pitt, Jordan Todman/UConn, Delone Carter/Syracuse, Jonathan Baldwin/Pitt

Breaking Down The Big East

Cincinnati Bearcats

Chris (Prediction: #3): While only returning 12 starters, we're talking about returning 12 starters from a team that was an Alabama or Texas loss away from playing in the National Championship. This team is not just going to drop off of a cliff one year later. Brian Kelly did a fantastic job in his time there, and his players were so well coached that I don't expect it to just wear off under the new regime. With second and third leading receivers back (Armon Binns and D.J. Woods) from an ABSOLUTELY LOADED receiving core (how many 2nd wide receivers do you know that have an 888-yard 11-TD season?), and adding another difference maker in Vidal Hazelton, a USC transfer, to the mix, the Bearcats should be sufficiently reloaded to keep opponents from exploiting their defense. They will play in shootout games, but they will have the offensive firepower to win them. Isaiah Pead will surprise people at running back, and should definitely be considered another weapon on a stocked skill position team. Also, anyone who doesn't have complete faith in Zach Collaros, who calmly stepped in to replace Tony Pike for four games during the middle of an undefeated season, wasn't paying attention. This kid was so efficient that the coaches were forced to consider benching their 5th-year senior quarterback on an undefeated team for the sophomore. That's moxie. He didn't just win, he did so efficiently...while etching his name into the school annals for yards in a game...efficiently. Truth be told, this team is a true sleeper and could end up in a BCS bowl representing the Big East at the end of the year...they can be that good.

Ross (Prediction: #1): Sure, they lost Brian Kelly, Tony Pike, and Mardy Gilyard.  Butch Jones already replaced Brian Kelly once -- and in a conference that's only marginally easier than the Big East (I kid, I kid...).  Zach Collaros looked tremendous as Pike's fill-in a year ago -- and he's precisely the sort of mobile QB that Jones worked wonders with at Central Michigan (see: LeFevour, Dan).  Gilyard will be tricky to replace, but still.  The Big East is an utter crapshoot; there's no hugely compelling reason why Cincy couldn't win it for the third straight year.

Connecticut Huskies

Chris (Prediction: #5):  Returning 16 starters from an 8-5 which won its last four games in convincing fashion should merit more than 5th place in a middle of the road conference, no? Despite their hot streak at the end of '09, I'm not sold on their QB Zach Frazer, especially with a completely new receiving core. My bet is that while they will be going bowling, the Huskies won't do anything to stand out from the pack in the Big East.

Ross (Prediction: #2): UConn's been on the cusp of Big East greatness for a few years, and as a team fairly loaded with returning starters and one of the most hard luck outfits around in 2009 (they lost five games by a combined 15 points), I figure they might just be due a good run here.  Plus, I trust Randy Edsall a hell of a lot more than I do the Wannstache.

Louisville Cardinals

Chris (Prediction: #8): Oh how things have changed at Louisville since the days of defect-o-matic Bobby Petrino. The good news for the Cardinals is that there is always 2011!

Louisville (Prediction: #7): Charlie Strong can't be any worse than Steve Kragthorpe... but it's going to take some time to get some talent in that program.

Pittsburgh Panthers

Chris (Prediction: #2): Despite the fact that the Panthers return one of the nation's leading rushers and budding receivers in Dion Lewis and Jonathan Baldwin, nothing about the rest of this team resembles championship (and I meant Big East). So why am I not buying the Panthers' Kool-Aid? First off Dave Wannstedt is one of the most underwhelming coaches I have ever seen. I have never seen a coach closer to a Butch Davis clone. Secondly, Dion Lewis is vastly overrated. Despite the fact he walked over some pretty bad defenses last year, pundits went gaga over the diminutive back, proclaiming him the best freshman back in the county. I've got news for you guys...Lewis would be lucky to be the fourth best in that group (comfortably behind Trent Richardson, Ryan Williams and LaMichael James in that order). And I'm not sold on a quarterback who as a rising sophomore has thrown only 17 passes. You don't hand championship teams to sophomores with that kind of experience and have it stay that way. I may be wrong, but Pitt could end up as far down as 5 if things turn south with the QB situation, or if the upperclassmen slated to replace big holes on defense don't live up.

Ross (Prediction: #3): there's talent here; as always, the biggest question is whether or not their continued exposure to the Wannstache will doom them yet again.  They had the Big East title in their grasp against Cincinnati a year ago, only to collapse in spectacular fashion.  That sort of thing just seems to happen to Wannstedt-coached teams, which is why it's difficult to put much faith in them.  Also, I'm half-convinced that Wannstedt is going to kill Dion Lewis with his workload this year.
 
Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Chris (Prediction: #4): The Scarlet Knights should not be taken lightly in 2010. Greg Schiano has built a VERY solid program at Rutgers, and despite falling a little in the last couple of years in the national limelight, Schiano's team is another team capable of capturing the Big East crown. It is unlikely however that it will be this year, but with a playmaker like Mohamed Sanu at the dispense of QB Tom Savage (Both sophomores...so yeah, watch out Big East) it is impossible to count them out. Also, Rutgers returns one of the nations' top defenses pretty well intact. The Scarlet Knights are probably a year away, but you have been given notice Big East...sweat them.

Ross (Prediction: #5): Keep chopping that wood, Rutgers.  They feel like a team that's about a year away.

South Florida Bulls

Chris (Prediction: #6): This was a hard call, because between spots 1-6 in the Big East, there is not going to be much separation. It will be a competitive league until the very end of the season. I love what B.J. Daniels brings, but talk to me in a year or two before I really start to sing the Bulls' praises.

Ross (Prediction: #6): Skip Holtz will be successful there... just not right away.  The Leavitt mess is going to need some time to settle.

Syracuse Orange

Chris (Prediction: #7): The only reason that I am able to separate the degrees of bad between the 'Cuse and the Cardinals is that the Orange return 10 starters on an experienced defense. The D will have to be really good to make up for the 2 starters that return on O. If not, they will be the Big East cellar dweller.

Ross (Prediction: #8): Someone send Doug Marrone a life preserver.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Chris (Prediction: #1): Despite my obvious objections (hello, I'm a Virginia Tech fan and the Tech-WVU rivalry is still VERY much alive no matter what any school official will lead you to believe), the Mountaineers have a veteran defense that will keep them in every game this season. Then the Mountaineers will just be content to hand the ball off to Noel Devine, college football's closest Dexter McCluster this season (although Devine is actually a more talented running back than McCluster strictly speaking). It doesn't matter that the Mountaineers find themselves in the same quarterback quandary as do the Panthers, because for him the pressure is off. Good defense, and the guy who will be the best playmaker every time they take the field this season. Just hand the ball to him as much as you can and things should take care of themselves. But, if for some reason Devine goes down, I'd expect to see Cincy or Rutgers to be hoisting the Big East trophy in the Mountaineers stead. I have nothing personally against Pitt, but they are a solid team and no more. Cincy and Rutgers both have the ability to be Big East middle-of-the-road and something special.

Ross (Prediction: #4): They have the most electrifying player in the Big East (Noel Devine), but they also have one of its most baffling head coaches (Bill Stewart). That's not often a recipe for success.

CFBZ Predicted Big East Finish
1. Pittsburgh Panthers
2. West Virginia Mountaineers
3 (tie). Cincinnati Bearcats
3 (tie). UConn Huskies
5. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
6. South Florida Bulls
7. Louisville Cardinals
8. Syracuse Orange

note: out of 5 people voting West Virginia received the most first place votes (2) but they also received 2 4th place votes. Cincy, UConn and Pitt all received 1 first place vote. The Big East should be wide open and fun this year.

Pre-Season Preview: Pittsburgh Panthers

2009 Record: 10-3 (5-2- Tied for 2nd in Big East)
2009 Bowl: Meineke Car Care Bowl (beat North Carolina 19 to 17)
Final 2009 BCS Ranking: #17
Head Coach: Dave Wannstedt (35-26 at Pitt)
Non-Conference Schedule: at Utah (9/2), New Hampshire (9/9), Miami, Fla (9/23), FIU (10/2), at Notre Dame (10/9)

2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 31.1 points per game (2nd in Big East)
Rushing Yards/Game: 180 (2nd in Big East)
Passing Yards/Game: 211 (3rd in Big East)
Total Yards/Game: 391 (2nd in Big East) 

2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 19.8 points per game (Tied 2nd in Big East)
Rushing Yards/Game: 106 (3rd in Big East)
Passing Yards/Game: 213 (5th in Big East)
Total Yards/Game: 319 (2nd in Big East)

2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +0.77 per game (2nd in Big East)
Penalties: 50 yards per game (5th in Big East)

Returning Starters
Offense: 5
Defense: 6
Kicker/Punter: 2

Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Tino Sunseri, Soph (10 of 17 for 114 yds, 2 TD)
Rushing: RB Dion Lewis, Soph (1799 yds, 5.54 ypc, 138 ypg, 17 TD)
Receiving: WR Jonathan Baldwin, Jr (57 Rec for 1111 yds, 8 TD)
Tackles: LB Max Gruder, Jr (91)
Sacks: DE Greg Romeus, Sr (8)
Interceptions: DB Dom DeCicco, Sr and Jarred Holley, Soph (3)

2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Lindy's: #14
Mark Schlabach: #15
Rivals: #13
Scout: Not Ranked
Sports Illustrated: #16

Last year was Pittsburgh's first 10 win season since Dan Marino was their quarterback. The Pitt Script Blog provided us with the information we sought about the 2010 Pittsburgh Panthers. Can they build on last years performance?

What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the team?

It's no secret that Dave Wannstedt wants to run the ball.  It was true when he was in the NFL and it's true now that he's in the college ranks.  After LeSean McCoy broke many of Tony Dorsett's records during his two years in Pittsburgh, the thought was that Pitt fans may have to wait 30 years to see another RB with his kind of talent wearing blue and gold.  Enter Dion Lewis.  As a freshman, Lewis accounted for 1,988 yards and 18 touchdowns, averaging 5.5 ypc.  I would look for more of the same, as Wannstedt has also shown his desire to have a "workhorse" running back rather than a committee, despite having another talented running back in Ray Graham available.

Pitt's biggest weakness is tough to call.  Not because Pitt is even remotely close to perfect, but because they have so many areas that could be very good but could also blow up in their faces.  The secondary is probably Pitt's biggest concern, as it consists entirely of new starters and players coming off of injury.  As is the case every summer in Pittsburgh, the offensive line is always a topic of concern.  While both tackles are solid returning starters,  the interior offensive line is replacing all three starters and struggled all spring against Pitt's talented defensive line.  The guard spots have talent and should be able to grow into the job, but the center position could be a source of consternation all season long with a walk-on and a newly converted DT fighting for the starting job.


Looking at the schedule who will be the first major test?

Opening the season on the road against a sure-to-be top 25 team would be tough under any circumstances, but opening the season on the road against a sure-to-be top 25 team with a new quarterback has to be the worst (CFBZ note: As a Georgia fan I felt that last year against Oklahoma State, not a good feeling).  Coming out of spring, it looks like true sophomore Tino Sunseri will be at 4226 feet above sea-level for his first collegiate start.  Add in the fact that Dave Wannstedt teams have often struggled early (3-2 on opening day in his tenure) and September 2 at Utah is enough to give me nightmares.

Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?

Fullback Henry Hynoski is maybe the best at his position in the nation.  More often than not, it's his block on a linebacker that springs Dion Lewis to make a long run.  He's not really a guy who gets the ball a lot, but his blocks make him an essential part of what Pitt wants to do on offense.

Who is the best offensive player on the team?

I've already went on and on about Lewis, so I'll go with junior wide receiver Jon Baldwin.  Baldwin might be the best pure pro prospect on the team with a solid 6'5" frame, top-end speed and great hands (go to YouTube and watch his ND highlights right now.  Dude catches everything.).  This is unquestionably his final season as a Panther and I expect him to be the undisputed number one target, especially with the loss of Dorin Dickerson at tight end.

Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?

Fifth year senior defensive end Greg Romeus is almost certain to be in contention all season for the Lott Trophy and should benefit from playing in a conference without many elite offensive tackles (the Big East's best, Rutgers' Anthony Davis, will be suiting up for the 49ers next season).  Romeus has NFL-caliber size and quickness and hopefully can top a productive 2009, which resulted in 8 sacks and 3 turnovers.  Romeus' impact will be dependent on Pitt's new defensive tackles commanding blockers down the middle.  Last season, Romeus shared Big East Defensive Player of the Year with the man lining up next to him, defensive tackle Mick Williams.  If Williams' replacement can command the same type of respect from offensive lineman, Romeus could see lots of 1-on-1 match-ups. 

What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?

It goes without saying that Pitt will need Sunseri to play well in order to post double-digit wins this season.  While Lewis is great, no one will be able to run with 8 or 9 in the box.  Sunseri is a much better athlete than Bill Stull, who played somewhere between good and very good in 2009.  Sunseri also has a pretty strong arm and seems to just have "it" in terms of being able to make plays.  With mediocre quarterback play, this team could probably win 7 games or so - but that's not the goal anymore.  In order for Pitt to win the Big East, Sunseri will have to play at least as well as Stull did in 2009.

Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?

All of the beat writers seemed pretty high on freshman wide receiver Devin Street after the spring.   With Baldwin as the undisputed first option, and junior Mike Shanahan seeming to be the second, Street could compete for the third wide out spot with senior Greg Cross, junior Cam Saddler and incoming freshman Todd Thomas.

Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?

While not technically a "newcomer," rising sophomore MLB Dan Mason showed flashes filling in at times for Adam Gunn, who has moved on after his sixth year with the team.  Mason made his first start last season against Navy, recording 11 tackles and 2 sacks, while helping Pitt hold Navy's ground game to 129 yards (Navy averaged 281 per game rushing), and won the Big East Player of the Week Award.  Mason got exposed during the next game, however, when he faced a much more diverse NC State offense and played only on clean-up duty until the Car Care Bowl, where he started at the MIKE and grabbed a crucial red-zone interception.

If I need to pick a TRUE newcomer, I would go with JUCO cornerback Saheed Imoru, who had a good spring.  Both of last season's starting corners graduated, so Imoru should be, at worst, Pitt's nickle corner.

Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?

I'm more optimistic about this season than I have been in a long, long time. Gut feeling is 10-2 and a Big East Championship, which is also what I would deem a successful season.  This has to be the year to finally get over the hump and win the thing outright for the first time.   Pitt is the favorite in every conference preview that I've seen and at the moment the Panthers seem to have an overwhelming amount of talent, especially at the skill positions.  Coupled with a "down" Big East this season and Pitt should be able to make their first BCS appearance under Wannstedt.

As for the two loses, I think Pitt will split their marquee OOC games with Utah and Miami and will drop a head-scratcher against against a Big East team - I'll say UConn, who seems to always play Pitt very tough.

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