2010 CFBZ Prediction: 1st Place in Big 12 North and Big 12 Champion
2010 Actual Finish: Tied for 1st Place in Big 12 North and Big 12 Runner-Up (10-4, 6-2)
Nebraska came really close to having a special season but it came apart in the last four games for them. The Cornhuskers got off to a 9-1 start including wins over Okie State and Missouri (who was ranked #6 at the time). On November 20th Nebraska fell to Texas A&M 9-6 in a game where they set school records for penalties and penalty yards. After beating Colorado to get their record to 10-2 they lost a close one in the Big 12 Championship Game to rival Oklahoma 23-20. Probably the most disappointing moment of the season came when Nebraska fell flat in it's bowl game against Washington (a team it had previously beaten this year 56-21). We were able to talk our Nebraska blogger, Brandon, down off of his ledge long enough for him to answer some questions for us about the 2010 season and get a quick look into the 2011 season. You can also follow him on twitter @bigstad24, he should be an interesting guy to follow next college football season as it will be Nebraska's first in the Big Ten.
1. Nebraska finished 10-4 losing 3 of their last 4. Looking back on the season was it a success, a failure or somewhere in between?
I, personally, have to label this season as a failure. I never really bought into the hype of Nebraska being a National Championship contender but you could definitely see that the talent was there to do so. Unfortunately, there were too many holes to prevent it from happening. I admit that I was snowed after the Washington and Kansas State games when the offense looked like the Nebraska of old with its domination of the run game and a defense that could shut down pretty much any offense. Then…the Texas game occurred and from that point forward they didn’t look like the same team. Taylor Martinez was exposed as not having the confidence that he should, the defense was shown prone to being beaten by the run, and the coaching staff was exposed as having little creativity offensively (save for a few Rex Burkhead plays in the last few games…) to get scores. So it became a failure when in three of the last four games you lose 9-6 to Texas A&M taking you out of a potential (albeit…small) chance at a National Title. You lose in heartbreaking fashion to Oklahoma, going back to your Quarterback who had been stopped repeatedly and not sticking with what was working and losing your last game on the way out of the Big 12 Conference. Then finally you lose to a team which you had dominated earlier in the season, and while you may have taken a lot of money away from their Quarterback, you still couldn’t get anything going offensively. If this seems like a successful season to you then by all means take it, but for it was a failure.
2. If you could have one game to "do over" which one would it be?
As much as people would probably expect me to say that I would like to redo the Texas A&M or Oklahoma game, I would rather redo the Holiday Bowl game against Washington. I think that you have to win a game of that magnitude after the prior month going so awry. I don’t think it hurt recruiting too much, but it seemed as if the team just lost focus and seemed badly distracted going into and during that game. As I said before you NEED to win that game so that you can prove the naysayers wrong, and regain some of the luster you lost with two of the losses which you suffered late. It also shows that you may have not been as good as you were touted to be EARLY in the season when you had already beaten that team. You need people to perceive that your team is dominant even if they actually aren’t that way you can keep the intimidation factor. With this loss? You lose that factor, and you also lose the idea of, “A couple of bad breaks…” being the difference in your season.
3. Which player were the most surprising to you this year?
The player that most surprised me this year was Lavonte David. I understand that he was a decent prospect coming out of JUCO last year, but for him to play that hybrid safety/linebacker position and in a dominant manner was something to behold. I don’t think he has much of a future at the next level as a linebacker, but with his ability to cover and run and his tackling ability he will make whatever team drafts him very happy as a Strong Saftey.
4. Which players are you most looking forward to watching in 2011?
Jared Crick because I think he has a chance to be another awesome defensive tackle; I don’t think he will ever get to a Suh-type level, but I certainly think he could be an awesome force on the inside of a defense for years to come. The aforementioned Lavonte David. Alfonso Dennard is also one to watch because of how well he played with Prince Amukamara on the other side of him. I am anxious to see if he can be the same type of corner when he is the focal point of the secondary, and see if he can shut down one side of the field like Amukamara did this entire year. I am also very pumped to see Rex Burkhead as the main running back and see if he can keep up what he did at the end of this year as a do everything style back, and be able to shoulder the load of the carries with no Roy Helu there to help him out.
5. Nebraska is in the same Big Ten division as Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota and Northwestern. How do you like Nebraska's chances in this division and what do they need to do this off-season to compete for a Big Ten Championship in their first year?
I like Nebraska’s chances in this division for sure because of how different every other team in it will look next season. Michigan is going to be rebuilding again, Michigan State was greatly exposed by Alabama and I don’t think they can do the same thing they did this past season. Minnesota is going to have a new coach to go along with the same players from a very poor season. Then there is Northwestern whom I think is a sleeper in this division and could win it, but they have never proven to win the big game yet, and I don’t have much faith that you can just learn that over an off-season. What does Nebraska need to do this off-season? I think that a change must be made with the offensive coordinator. I know that Bo Pellini has given him a “vote of confidence” but to me you can’t expect any different result on offense with the same person in charge. Where they would turn? I have no clue, but I know it probably can’t be with current Oregon Wide Receiver’s coach Scott Frost as this was his first year as a coach on the offensive side of the ball. I also don’t think Joe Ganz (a current Graduate Assistant) can just jump up to Quarterback’s coach, but I think that this is what needs to change the most because the defense is always going to be there to stop people. All that you need is one more point than the defense allows, and right now I don’t think that this offensive staff can get that done on a consistent basis.
Showing posts with label Nebraska Cornhuskers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nebraska Cornhuskers. Show all posts
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Staying In School: Who Will Have The Biggest Impact
Every year college players have the chance to realize their dreams and cash in on a potentially lucrative career by taking their talents to the NFL. Let's take a look at some of the guys who passed up the possibility of declaring for the NFL draft in order to stay in school and possibly help lead their teams to Conference and National Championships.
1. Justin Blackmon and Brandon Wheedon, Oklahoma State- Okie State was picked by everybody to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South this year. But led by Brandon Wheedon, Justin Blackmon and Kendall Hunter they put up the 2nd most points in College Football and passed for the 3rd most yards. As a redshirt sophomore Justin Blackmon emerged as one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the land. In 12 games he caught 111 balls for 1782 yards and 20 TD. He finished 1st in the Nation in TD receptions, 1st in Receiving Yards per game, 2nd in Total Receiving Yards, 2nd in Receptions per Game and 3rd in Total Receptions. To say it was a break-out season would be a huge understatement. In 2009 Brandon Wheedon backed up Zac Robinson and only threw 24 passes all season. This year he got his opportunity and did not waste it. Wheedon put up 4277 yards passing (2nd to only Landry Jones in Big 12 land) and was the highest rated passer in the pass happy Big 12. I'm not sure about how valued Wheedon is by the NFL, especially since he's a 27 year old college QB, but getting both of these guys to come back to school (especially Blackmon) was a huge coo for Mike Gundy. Now the biggest question is how the Cowboys offense will function with Dana Holgerson moving on to West Virginia.
2. Andrew Luck, Stanford- This was the most surprising of all as Luck was thought by many to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. Luck would be my #1 with a bullet if Jim Harbaugh had come back to coach Stanford. Stanford did stay in house with their coaching choice to replace Harbaugh by picking Offensive Coordinator David Shaw. Keeping the offense in tact will be huge for Shaw and Luck. Luck was the third highest rated passer in the Nation (behind some guys named Cam Newton and Kellen Moore) and also led the Pac-10 in Passing Yards and TD. I think it's safe to say that Stanford is here to stay (at least for another year).
3. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma- Oklahoma went 12-2 this year and won the Big 12 Championship. Now they are poised for a run at the National Championship and Broyles coming back gives them the shot in the arm that they might just need to get them over the hump. Broyles led the Nation last year with 131 catches and helped Landry Jones become a much better QB in 2010. Broyles also led the Nation with 9.4 receptions per game, that's an incredible number and Big 12 defenses are going to have their hands full with Broyles and the Sooners offense next year.
4. Kellen Moore, Boise State- Ok, so maybe he's not widely coveted by the NFL. But we still see guys go pro that have no business doing so. Moore is only listed as 6'0" so maybe he's not the typical NFL QB but he sure is the cog that keeps Boise State going. This year the Broncos lose their top two receiving targets in Titus Young and Austin Pettis (both reeled in 71 catches last year) so keeping Moore is huge for maintaining the offense and breaking in some new targets. Moore's stats are as impressive as any other QB in College Football. Over the last two years he has passed for over 7000 yards and has 74 TD and only 9 Interceptions.
5. Case Keenum, Houston- This isn't the typical staying in school but Keenum was a 5th year senior who suffered a torn ACL and missed the last 9 games of last season. Without Keenum, Houston finished the season winning just 3 of their last 9 and concluded the season with a record of 5-7. With Keenum they went 10-4 in 2009. In the two years spanning 2008 and 2009 Keenum passed for over 10,000 yards and posted 44 TD in both of those seasons. If nothing else, Keenum provides us bloggers and sports writers some stats to drool over. Keenum was granted a 6th season by the NCAA and this guy is looking forward to watching it.
6. Jared Crick, Nebraska- There are some good defensive players who passed up the draft but this one might have the biggest impact. Last year Crick posted 70 total tackles (3rd on the team), 14.5 tackles for loss (5th in the Big 12) and 9.5 sacks (2nd in the Big 12). Nebraska was 9th in scoring defense last year in the Nation but their offense faltered and they fell to defeat in 3 of their last 4 games. With Crick coming back Nebraska doesn't need to worry about their DL as they prepare for their first game in their inaugural season in the Big 10.
Honorable Mention: Michael Floyd/Notre Dame, Mark Barron/Alabama, Janoris Jenkins/Florida, LaMichael James/Oregon, Russell Wilson/NC State
1. Justin Blackmon and Brandon Wheedon, Oklahoma State- Okie State was picked by everybody to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South this year. But led by Brandon Wheedon, Justin Blackmon and Kendall Hunter they put up the 2nd most points in College Football and passed for the 3rd most yards. As a redshirt sophomore Justin Blackmon emerged as one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the land. In 12 games he caught 111 balls for 1782 yards and 20 TD. He finished 1st in the Nation in TD receptions, 1st in Receiving Yards per game, 2nd in Total Receiving Yards, 2nd in Receptions per Game and 3rd in Total Receptions. To say it was a break-out season would be a huge understatement. In 2009 Brandon Wheedon backed up Zac Robinson and only threw 24 passes all season. This year he got his opportunity and did not waste it. Wheedon put up 4277 yards passing (2nd to only Landry Jones in Big 12 land) and was the highest rated passer in the pass happy Big 12. I'm not sure about how valued Wheedon is by the NFL, especially since he's a 27 year old college QB, but getting both of these guys to come back to school (especially Blackmon) was a huge coo for Mike Gundy. Now the biggest question is how the Cowboys offense will function with Dana Holgerson moving on to West Virginia.
2. Andrew Luck, Stanford- This was the most surprising of all as Luck was thought by many to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. Luck would be my #1 with a bullet if Jim Harbaugh had come back to coach Stanford. Stanford did stay in house with their coaching choice to replace Harbaugh by picking Offensive Coordinator David Shaw. Keeping the offense in tact will be huge for Shaw and Luck. Luck was the third highest rated passer in the Nation (behind some guys named Cam Newton and Kellen Moore) and also led the Pac-10 in Passing Yards and TD. I think it's safe to say that Stanford is here to stay (at least for another year).
3. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma- Oklahoma went 12-2 this year and won the Big 12 Championship. Now they are poised for a run at the National Championship and Broyles coming back gives them the shot in the arm that they might just need to get them over the hump. Broyles led the Nation last year with 131 catches and helped Landry Jones become a much better QB in 2010. Broyles also led the Nation with 9.4 receptions per game, that's an incredible number and Big 12 defenses are going to have their hands full with Broyles and the Sooners offense next year.
4. Kellen Moore, Boise State- Ok, so maybe he's not widely coveted by the NFL. But we still see guys go pro that have no business doing so. Moore is only listed as 6'0" so maybe he's not the typical NFL QB but he sure is the cog that keeps Boise State going. This year the Broncos lose their top two receiving targets in Titus Young and Austin Pettis (both reeled in 71 catches last year) so keeping Moore is huge for maintaining the offense and breaking in some new targets. Moore's stats are as impressive as any other QB in College Football. Over the last two years he has passed for over 7000 yards and has 74 TD and only 9 Interceptions.
5. Case Keenum, Houston- This isn't the typical staying in school but Keenum was a 5th year senior who suffered a torn ACL and missed the last 9 games of last season. Without Keenum, Houston finished the season winning just 3 of their last 9 and concluded the season with a record of 5-7. With Keenum they went 10-4 in 2009. In the two years spanning 2008 and 2009 Keenum passed for over 10,000 yards and posted 44 TD in both of those seasons. If nothing else, Keenum provides us bloggers and sports writers some stats to drool over. Keenum was granted a 6th season by the NCAA and this guy is looking forward to watching it.
6. Jared Crick, Nebraska- There are some good defensive players who passed up the draft but this one might have the biggest impact. Last year Crick posted 70 total tackles (3rd on the team), 14.5 tackles for loss (5th in the Big 12) and 9.5 sacks (2nd in the Big 12). Nebraska was 9th in scoring defense last year in the Nation but their offense faltered and they fell to defeat in 3 of their last 4 games. With Crick coming back Nebraska doesn't need to worry about their DL as they prepare for their first game in their inaugural season in the Big 10.
Honorable Mention: Michael Floyd/Notre Dame, Mark Barron/Alabama, Janoris Jenkins/Florida, LaMichael James/Oregon, Russell Wilson/NC State
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Bowl Predictions Part 2 (12/27-12/30)
If you missed the first round of bowl predictions just click here to catch up on what you missed. As of the printing of this blog we have had 5 bowl games and so far Ross is 4-1 in his predictions (only missing on NIU/Fresno) and I'm 3-2.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl (12/27 5pm on ESPN 2)
Air Force (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: AIR FORCE 31 GEORGIA TECH 27
This is a very interesting game as both of these teams present problems for their opponents defense on a weekly basis. Georgia Tech is the #1 rushing attach in the Nation at 327 yards per game and Air Force is #2 at 317. Air Force has a better resume than Georgia Tech does. Air Force beat BYU (35-14), Navy (14-6) and Army (42-22) while Georgia Tech only had one win against a team that finished with a winning record (beat UNC 30-24 and no Georgia Tech fans I'm not counting South Carolina State). From the latest I have read, Joshua Nesbitt will not play in this game. I think that will be the difference but I honestly would not be surprised if either team won this game. This is one to watch as it should be the shortest game of the bowl season due to both teams mashing the ball between the tackles.
Ross's Prediction: AIR FORCE 35, GEORGIA TECH 24
Champs Sports Bowl (12/28 6:30 pm on ESPN)
West Virginia (9-3) vs. North Carolina State (8-4)
Kevin's Prediction: NC STATE 27 WEST VIRGINIA 24
NC State was one of the most surprising teams this year. West Virginia finished 9-3 and didn't lose a game by more than 6 points all year but their season just felt somewhat underwhelming. The big match-up for me in this game is the West Virginia defense (which only gave up 12.8 ppg this year) versus Russell Wilson and NC State's passing attack (which ranked 19th in the Nation this year). My gut says West Virginia but my heart says NC State).
Ross's Prediction: WEST VIRGINIA 28, NC STATE 24
Insight Bowl (12/28 10 pm on ESPN)
Missouri (10-2) vs. Iowa (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: MISSOURI 27 IOWA 17
The biggest thing that sticks in my mind is how Iowa finished the season. They lost 3 straight games, one to Ohio State, but the other two to Northwestern (a decent team) and Minnesota (an awful team). Iowa is also looking at some key suspensions for the bowl game. I'm not in love with Missouri but I like them in this one.
Ross's Prediction: IOWA 24, MISSOURI 17
Military Bowl (12/29 2:30 pm on ESPN)
East Carolina (6-6) vs. Maryland (8-40
Kevin's Prediction: MARYLAND 38 EAST CAROLINA 27
Was there a more up and down team than East Carolina this year? They beat NC State and Southern Miss but got bombed by the likes of Rice and gave up 76 points to Navy. That is not a team I can pick to win a bowl game. East Carolina gave up a whooping 43.4 points per game this year. There is turmoil in Maryland but I think they win this one for the Fridge.
Ross's Prediction: MARYLAND 37, EAST CAROLINA 24
This is another game where an unsettled coaching situation could produce thoroughly unpredictable results, but I think Maryland sends Friedgen out with a win -- especially since ECU's defense is purely theoretical.
Texas Bowl (12/29 6pm on ESPN)
Illinois (6-6) vs. Baylor (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: BAYLOR 34 ILLINOIS 24
I refuse to live in a world where I pick a 6-6 Ron Zook coached team to win a bowl game. Baylor was really good offensively this year and Illinois was known to give up some points this year (see also: back-to-back weeks giving up 67 to Michigan and 38 to Minnesota).
Ross's Prediction: BAYLOR 38, ILLINOIS 31
Valero Alamo (12/29 9:15pm on ESPN)
Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: OKLAHOMA STATE 38 ARIZONA 28
This is a game that looks fun on paper. Okie State's explosive offense (2nd Nationally in Passing, 29th in Rushing, and 3rd in Scoring) against a pretty good Arizona defense. This would have been a much better match-up if it would have happened early in the year when Arizona was 7-1. Arizona played a tough schedule at the end of the year and fell to Stanford, USC and Oregon. But then they also lost to rival Arizona State. I just can't see them coming back to beat an Okie State team with all those weapons on offense.
Ross's Prediction: OKLAHOMA STATE 34, ARIZONA 24
Armed Forces Bowl (12/30 Noon on ESPN)
Army (6-6) vs. SMU (7-6)
Kevin's Prediction: SMU 28 ARMY 21
The most impressive victory Army had all year was a 45-28 win over 5-7 Kent State. I kid you not. As much as a want to pick Army because this is the "Armed Forces Bowl" I simply can't justify it based on their body of work. SMU isn't exactly a Top 25 team but they did beat East Carolina and Tulsa.
Ross's Prediction: SMU 38, ARMY 24
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (12/30 3:20pm on ESPN)
Kansas State (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: SYRACUSE 24 KANSAS STATE 21
Not a real high-profile match-up based on name appeal but I like what Syracuse did this year. They turned around a pitiful program into a team that knocked off a Top 25 opponent (19-14 win over West Virginia). Syracuse had a bunch of cupcakes on their schedule (Akron, Maine and Colgate) and took advantage of some down Big East opponents (Cincy and Rutgers) but I really like their improvement. Kansas State actually played a couple of adequate non-conference foes this year (UCLA and UCF) but folded like a tent once they got into the meat of the Big 12 schedule (losses to Nebraska, Baylor, Okie State, Missouri and Colorado). This one looks like a coin toss to me but I think Syracuse is going to be more up for this game than Kansas State.
Ross's Prediction: SYRACUSE 21, KANSAS STATE 17
Music City Bowl (12/30 6:40pm on ESPN)
North Carolina (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: NORTH CAROLINA 27 TENNESSEE 24
If you asked me about this one half-way through the year I would have picked UNC by about 30. I think Tennessee started to find itself at the end of the season when they inserted Tyler Bray into the starting line-up but it could also have been the closing stretch of Memphis, Ole Miss, Vandy and Kentucky that did the trick (these teams had a combined record of 13-34). So before we anoint Tennessee as "back" under Derek Dooley lets see them actually beat somebody.
Ross's Prediction: NORTH CAROLINA 31, TENNESSEE 27
Holiday Bowl (12/30 10pm on ESPN)
Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: NEBRASKA 34 WASHINGTON 14
This one looks like a total no-brainer. Assuming Nebraska's offense shows up they shouldn't have much of a problem in this one.
Ross's Prediction: NEBRASKA 38, WASHINGTON 17
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl (12/27 5pm on ESPN 2)
Air Force (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: AIR FORCE 31 GEORGIA TECH 27
This is a very interesting game as both of these teams present problems for their opponents defense on a weekly basis. Georgia Tech is the #1 rushing attach in the Nation at 327 yards per game and Air Force is #2 at 317. Air Force has a better resume than Georgia Tech does. Air Force beat BYU (35-14), Navy (14-6) and Army (42-22) while Georgia Tech only had one win against a team that finished with a winning record (beat UNC 30-24 and no Georgia Tech fans I'm not counting South Carolina State). From the latest I have read, Joshua Nesbitt will not play in this game. I think that will be the difference but I honestly would not be surprised if either team won this game. This is one to watch as it should be the shortest game of the bowl season due to both teams mashing the ball between the tackles.
Ross's Prediction: AIR FORCE 35, GEORGIA TECH 24
Who better to defend Georgia Tech's vaunted triple-option offense than a team that (a) runs a similar offense themselves, (b) plays multiple teams that run that offense, and (c) is full of smart, disciplined athletes. Tech's main hope is having vastly superior athletes, but I'm not sure that will be enough.
Champs Sports Bowl (12/28 6:30 pm on ESPN)
West Virginia (9-3) vs. North Carolina State (8-4)
Kevin's Prediction: NC STATE 27 WEST VIRGINIA 24
NC State was one of the most surprising teams this year. West Virginia finished 9-3 and didn't lose a game by more than 6 points all year but their season just felt somewhat underwhelming. The big match-up for me in this game is the West Virginia defense (which only gave up 12.8 ppg this year) versus Russell Wilson and NC State's passing attack (which ranked 19th in the Nation this year). My gut says West Virginia but my heart says NC State).
Ross's Prediction: WEST VIRGINIA 28, NC STATE 24
West Virginia probably was the best team in the Big East this year -- but they stumbled against UConn and (more absurdly) Syracuse and that kept them from making yet another BCS bowl this year. But it should still be enough to get by a good-but-not-great NC State team, unless the behind-the-scenes turmoil with the coaching staff is too much for the team to handle. But their defense should be good enough to slow down Russell Wilson and the NC State offense.
Insight Bowl (12/28 10 pm on ESPN)
Missouri (10-2) vs. Iowa (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: MISSOURI 27 IOWA 17
The biggest thing that sticks in my mind is how Iowa finished the season. They lost 3 straight games, one to Ohio State, but the other two to Northwestern (a decent team) and Minnesota (an awful team). Iowa is also looking at some key suspensions for the bowl game. I'm not in love with Missouri but I like them in this one.
Ross's Prediction: IOWA 24, MISSOURI 17
Against my better judgment, I'm picking Iowa in this one. Lord knows, there's plenty of reasons to pick against them -- they ended the year on a three-game losing skid that included a thoroughly pathetic loss to a bad Minnesota team and then lost their best receiver (Derrell Johnson-Koulianos) and best running back (Adam Robinson) for the game in off-field turmoil -- but I think they come out with something to prove and actually win a close game.
Military Bowl (12/29 2:30 pm on ESPN)
East Carolina (6-6) vs. Maryland (8-40
Kevin's Prediction: MARYLAND 38 EAST CAROLINA 27
Was there a more up and down team than East Carolina this year? They beat NC State and Southern Miss but got bombed by the likes of Rice and gave up 76 points to Navy. That is not a team I can pick to win a bowl game. East Carolina gave up a whooping 43.4 points per game this year. There is turmoil in Maryland but I think they win this one for the Fridge.
Ross's Prediction: MARYLAND 37, EAST CAROLINA 24
This is another game where an unsettled coaching situation could produce thoroughly unpredictable results, but I think Maryland sends Friedgen out with a win -- especially since ECU's defense is purely theoretical.
Texas Bowl (12/29 6pm on ESPN)
Illinois (6-6) vs. Baylor (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: BAYLOR 34 ILLINOIS 24
I refuse to live in a world where I pick a 6-6 Ron Zook coached team to win a bowl game. Baylor was really good offensively this year and Illinois was known to give up some points this year (see also: back-to-back weeks giving up 67 to Michigan and 38 to Minnesota).
Ross's Prediction: BAYLOR 38, ILLINOIS 31
There's definite potential for Baylor to fall victim to "just happy to be there" disease for making their first bowl game in years... but the same could be said for Illinois to an extent, since most of their players haven't played in a bowl game, either. When in doubt, it's sometimes useful to go with the best player on the field -- and in this case that's undoubtedly Baylor's do-everything QB, Robert Griffin III. I think he'll have a big game and carry Baylor to a close win.
Valero Alamo (12/29 9:15pm on ESPN)
Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: OKLAHOMA STATE 38 ARIZONA 28
This is a game that looks fun on paper. Okie State's explosive offense (2nd Nationally in Passing, 29th in Rushing, and 3rd in Scoring) against a pretty good Arizona defense. This would have been a much better match-up if it would have happened early in the year when Arizona was 7-1. Arizona played a tough schedule at the end of the year and fell to Stanford, USC and Oregon. But then they also lost to rival Arizona State. I just can't see them coming back to beat an Okie State team with all those weapons on offense.
Ross's Prediction: OKLAHOMA STATE 34, ARIZONA 24
Both teams lost heart-breakers to their hated in-state rivals in their season finales, so both will be trying to rebound here. But Arizona fell apart down the stretch and Oklahoma State seems to have superior personnel on offense. Arizona also laid the ugliest of eggs last year in the Holiday Bowl, so I don't really have a lot of faith in Mike Stoops' bowl prep ability right now.
Armed Forces Bowl (12/30 Noon on ESPN)
Army (6-6) vs. SMU (7-6)
Kevin's Prediction: SMU 28 ARMY 21
The most impressive victory Army had all year was a 45-28 win over 5-7 Kent State. I kid you not. As much as a want to pick Army because this is the "Armed Forces Bowl" I simply can't justify it based on their body of work. SMU isn't exactly a Top 25 team but they did beat East Carolina and Tulsa.
Ross's Prediction: SMU 38, ARMY 24
It's great that Army made it to a bowl game, but they're not really very good. SMU isn't great, either, but they've looked pretty solid at times and held their own against some quality foes (like TCU). I think June Jones will have the SMU offense ready to shred Army's defense, too.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (12/30 3:20pm on ESPN)
Kansas State (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: SYRACUSE 24 KANSAS STATE 21
Not a real high-profile match-up based on name appeal but I like what Syracuse did this year. They turned around a pitiful program into a team that knocked off a Top 25 opponent (19-14 win over West Virginia). Syracuse had a bunch of cupcakes on their schedule (Akron, Maine and Colgate) and took advantage of some down Big East opponents (Cincy and Rutgers) but I really like their improvement. Kansas State actually played a couple of adequate non-conference foes this year (UCLA and UCF) but folded like a tent once they got into the meat of the Big 12 schedule (losses to Nebraska, Baylor, Okie State, Missouri and Colorado). This one looks like a coin toss to me but I think Syracuse is going to be more up for this game than Kansas State.
Ross's Prediction: SYRACUSE 21, KANSAS STATE 17
On one hand, you could go with the best player on the field -- and that should be Kansas State's Daniel Thomas. On the other hand, you could go with the team more excited to be there -- which is probably Syracuse, given their long years in the wilderness over the past decade. Flip of the coin says Syracuse in a close one.
Music City Bowl (12/30 6:40pm on ESPN)
North Carolina (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: NORTH CAROLINA 27 TENNESSEE 24
If you asked me about this one half-way through the year I would have picked UNC by about 30. I think Tennessee started to find itself at the end of the season when they inserted Tyler Bray into the starting line-up but it could also have been the closing stretch of Memphis, Ole Miss, Vandy and Kentucky that did the trick (these teams had a combined record of 13-34). So before we anoint Tennessee as "back" under Derek Dooley lets see them actually beat somebody.
Ross's Prediction: NORTH CAROLINA 31, TENNESSEE 27
Tennessee came on strong at the end of the year, although they mostly did it against so-so competition. North Carolina was good this year, but not good enough to get by the best teams they played (LSU, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State) -- although they did eke one out against Florida State. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I like UNC to win and end their disappointing season on a minor high note.
Holiday Bowl (12/30 10pm on ESPN)
Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: NEBRASKA 34 WASHINGTON 14
This one looks like a total no-brainer. Assuming Nebraska's offense shows up they shouldn't have much of a problem in this one.
Ross's Prediction: NEBRASKA 38, WASHINGTON 17
The rematch no one asked for. Nebraska pulverized Washington when they met earlier this season, and while I don't think the rematch will be quite as lopsided, there's still no reason to pick against Nebraska here. They're much better, especially on defense.
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Things Need to Change
I am not ready to abort the entire Pellini tenure, yet, but things do need to change at Nebraska. The first thing that needs to change is the offensive philosophy, and unfortunately I think that means the end of Shawn Watson’s time as Offensive Coordinator. While he has done a lot of good during his time at Nebraska I think it is time for a change, as I feel he is not the best person for the job anymore. Since Bo Pellini has such a stranglehold on the defense, you need an offensive coordinator who can act like a head coach and I don’t think that Shawn Watson has it in him. Who else is out there? I have no idea, maybe, you could hire a coach who has been fired or maybe you could hire a hotshot QB coach or something, but a change in philosophy definitely needs to happen.
Taylor Martinez? Gone. He needs to either be benched or he needs to leave the team because he just doesn’t fit. I know he moved the ball well the first part of the year, but look at the competition he faced and look at how well he did in the second part of the year. I think anyone would have been able to just as well against those teams, the MAJOR red flag that I saw and no one else did was the South Dakota State game where he made bad decision after bad decision to the extent that he had to be benched. It was at that point when I realized that this wasn’t his team and that he wasn’t meant to be a starter. I know that I tweeted that I will go to my grave saying that Cody Green should have been the starter from the beginning but it is more than that, he had more of a command of the offense during the season than Taylor Martinez did, even our beloved King of the Sun Belt played better. Could he have been rattled by the constant benching against various teams throughout the year? Yes, but that also showed that the coaching staff didn’t have the utmost faith in him as the starter in big games. It is also a mechanics issue, and it is obvious he can’t really go down field, he telegraphs all of his throws, his eyes stick to one receiver making it clear who he is going to, and he really doesn’t get anything on the ball. All these things change as you get older and more mature, but he should have better instincts being a quarterback already, and he simply doesn’t have those. I think it is time for Nebraska to just move on because I don’t know if it will ever work out there for him.
So who do you go to instead of Taylor Martinez? Cody Green should be the guy for the next two years I think since he has been in the system, and even if you do switch Offensive Coordinators he seems more adapt to change than anyone else right now. After that I think that Brion Carnes would be the guy simply because of his pedigree (Tommie Frazier is his cousin) and hope that lightning strikes twice. He lets the game come to him and doesn’t try to do everything himself as good of an athlete as he might be he actually looks like a Quarterback out there and doesn’t rely on only his athletic ability which Taylor Martinez is a victim of doing. The two things that worry me about him are the fact that, really, only Western Kentucky and USF had a better shot of landing him and I know recruiting isn’t the biggest deal ever, but that does send a flag saying, “If he was so good why didn’t anyone else of note try to recruit him?” The other thing that worries me is the fact that a lot of pressure (even from me) will be put on him to play well simply because he is Tommie Frazier’s cousin.
So after saying all that I have do I consider the season a failure? No. I did expect way too much of them from the beginning I think and set my expectations way too high for my own good. It would have been nice to see the interaction between Don Beebe and Tom Osborne on the podium, but one Big 12 Championship doth not a season make. Nebraska still has a bowl game to go out and win, and after that it begins time to focus on making a dent in the Big 10 and, well, that is a different story entirely.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Conference Championship Game Predictions
SEC: Auburn (12-0) vs. South Carolina (9-3)
Kevin: OK, everybody who had Auburn vs South Carolina at the beginning of the year raise your hands. Seriously, the odds of this happening had to be very narrow at the beginning of the season. Florida and Georgia both under-performed this year and South Carolina beat both of them to take the SEC East Crown. Auburn had a much tougher road as they are in the same division as 4 other Top 25 teams but still finished the year unbeaten. All year I was waiting for Auburn to lose but as the year went on Auburn seemed to get stronger. They fell behind against Georgia and Alabama but showed a lot of mental toughness and came back to win both of those games. It's just hard to bet against Auburn right now. That being said, I will be rooting against them as I just can't root for Nick Unfairley after his repeated late hits to my redshirt freshman QB Aaron Murray.
Prediction: AUBURN 31 SOUTH CAROLINA 24
Ross: On one hand, you have an Auburn team that seems like a team of destiny after the way they came back from the dead against Alabama and pulled off an incredible comeback win. They also happen to have the best player in college football this year (Cam Newton), who's playing at an incredibly high level. And they have one of the best defensive players in college football, too, in Nick Fairley. On the other hand, you have a South Carolina team that seems to have flipped a switch in the last three weeks, turning in three straight dominant performances, including blowout wins over Florida (to clinch the SEC East) and Clemson (to win a rivalry game). Stephen Garcia's not turning the ball over, Marcus Lattimore is running like a man possessed, Alshon Jeffery is the best receiver no one talks about, and the defense is stoning people. Oh, and they did come awful close to knocking off Auburn when they played earlier this year, until Newton Hulked up in the fourth quarter and the Cocks helped out by turning the ball over four times. So... they could win, right? Yeah, they could, but only a fool would bet against Cam Newton at this point -- and I don't feel like being a fool.
Prediction: AUBURN 38, SOUTH CAROLINA 31
Big 12: Oklahoma (10-2) vs. Nebraska (10-2)
Kevin: This is a HUGE game for Oklahoma and the Big 12. Nobody in the Big 12 wants to see Nebraska win the Big 12 title in their last season in the conference. OU is riding a 3-game winning streak over Texas Tech, Baylor and rival Okie State. Nebraska comes into the game having lost to Texas A&M just before blowing out Colorado. I really don't have a feel for this one but I just think OU is going to tough it out.
Prediction: OKLAHOMA 27 NEBRASKA 24
Ross: How fitting that the last-ever Big 12 Championship Game features the two teams that defined the conference that birthed the Big 12 -- the Big 8. Oklahoma and Nebraska had one of the game's most legendary rivalries in the 70s and 80s and while it was unavoidably diminished when the Big 12 was formed and they stopped playing each other every year, it's still a pretty good thing -- especially when both teams are good, which is the case this year. Neither team is great (they each have two losses for a reason), but they've both been very impressive for stretches of the season. Oklahoma seems to be rounding into form at the end of the season, especially on offense (three straight efforts of 40+ points) and for all of Bob Stoops' failures in BCS bowls, he's been a killer in the Big 12 Championship Game (5-1). On the other hand, Nebraska has a far better defense than what Oklahoma has been playing. The key for them will be whether Taylor Martinez is healthy enough to be effective in this game -- Nebraska blew out Colorado without him, but they aren't going to get solid performances from the usually lousy Cody Green or two touchdown passes from a running back (Rex Burkhead) too often. Defense usually wins championships, but going against Stoops in a game like this is usually a losing proposition.
Prediction: OKLAHOMA 27, NEBRASKA 20
ACC: FSU (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (10-2)
Kevin: FSU showed some fire that I didn't know they had in them last week when they took Herban Meyer and Florida to the woodshed. That being said, Virginia Tech is on a 10-game winning streak. Who would have thought that after falling Boise State and then James Madison (yes, James Madison) that Virginia Tech would be undefeated in the ACC. I can't bet against the Hokies in this one.
Prediction: VIRGINIA TECH 34 FLORIDA STATE 21
Prediction: VIRGINIA TECH 28, FLORIDA STATE 24
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
The Final(?) Showdown
So it comes to this, does it?
The final showdown between two rivals, for the time being, and it is for all the Big 12 Marbles. It’s funny to think about in that context, but that is the reality of what we are facing on Saturday when Nebraska plays Oklahoma for a final time. I am not ruling out future meetings, but for all intents and purposes this should be treated as the last game of the rivalry. I am not going to break this down from a technical standpoint, but I am going to try and convey my emotions going into this game, and what I hope will happen.
On June 11th 2010 the Nebraska Cornhuskers were approved to make the jump to the Big 10 Conference and in all the madness that surrounded the move, the one thing that was never brought up was the end of two rivalries. I am not sure many of you can understand what it is like to know you have to make a new rival. It’s weird, I obviously have my intrapersonal rivalry with all my Ohio State supporting friends, I have a personal bitter rivalry with Michigan (1997 should still OUR National Championship), and the prospects of Nebraska/Iowa aka “FARMAGEDDON” The fact that remained was that we as Nebraska fans, lost our two biggest rivals in Colorado and Oklahoma. The Colorado rivalry was more prevalent since the two teams played every year, but to me, Oklahoma would always be the rivalry.
So what about the final game? What about the last game of a rivalry for the time being? I obviously hope Nebraska wins, but more than anything I want to beat our rival one more time on the (second) biggest stage of them all. I am not going to go overboard and want an absolute drubbing, but I do want to win, I want to win this game more than I wanted to win the Texas game, and that was the most hyped I have ever been for a Nebraska game. I don’t think many of you understand how great it would be to win this game; I am aware that many people have national titles, and conference titles, but you always come back the next year to defend and to repeat. This time there is no coming back; there is no repeating as champion, there is just THIS GAME. That’s it. I can’t think of anything that will be sweeter than having to watch Dan Beebe hand the Big 12 Title over to the Cornhuskers, and him knowing that, for the time being, we are the LAST Big 12 Championship Game winners. He already doesn’t want to give the Big 12 North Trophy over to the Huskers, and that’s fine, but he will HAVE to hand over the Big 12 Championship Trophy to Nebraska, and that will be even better. I wouldn’t even care if they won the Fiesta Bowl so long as I get to see that scene in Dallas on Saturday Night, and to take out your two main rivals in back to back weeks? That will be even sweeter. There will be none of me buying Tostitos, or scheduling out songs to play in the event of a win. There will only be a win...
...then we will play the songs, one last time!
Nebraska 20 – Oklahoma 17.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Five Questions: Big 12 Edition
What is the biggest surprise in the Big 12 so far?
Alex: By far it is Texas's fall. How many teams go from losing the national championship game to possibly being last in the conference?
J Martin: It has to be Texas' fall. I never bought into the Garrett Gilbert craze, never thought he was going to step in and be an instant superstar after he made a few good throws against Alabama in the BCS title game. I never bought into this idea that Texas was suddenly going to become a pro-style, power running team and not miss a beat on offense despite not having the personnel to do it. And yet I also never thought we'd be here in the 2nd week of November wondering if Texas was even going to make a bowl. That's shocking. With the talent and the coaches that the Longhorns have, they should never, ever, lose 5 games in a year. But here they are, sitting at 4-5, staring down the barrel of two more.
Kevin: Texas is a huge surprise but I think Okie State is just as surprising. In our pre-season preview we picked Okie State DOA and chose them to come in a tie for 5th with Baylor. Phil Steele picked them dead last in the Big 12 South calling it a rebuilding year. ESPN said they would finish in 5th and 7-5.
Ross: The rise of Baylor, the fall of Texas, and the continued (and even greater) success of Oklahoma State have all been pretty remarkable surprises, but I'd have to say the freefall of Texas been the biggest stunner. In hindsight, it wasn't totally crazy to see Baylor and Oklahoma State being good since they each returned an offensive star (RB Kendall Hunter for Okie State, QB Robert Griffin for Baylor), although it would have been nuts to project this much success for them. But Texas slumming it at 4-5 and in real danger of not even making a bowl? That's absurd to even contemplate -- especially after seeing them get so thoroughly and comprehensively beaten by UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State. None of those losses were fluky in the slightest -- Texas just got completely outplayed. For that to happen with a team with such obvious talent (unless the recruiting services were wildly inaccurate) is mind blowing. Barring an unlikely turnaround, this is going to go down as one of the most sudden, surprising, and inexplicable collapses of a major program in recent history.
Who is the Big 12 Player of the Year so far?
Alex: Taylor Martinez is your PotY. Nebraska would be dead in the water amongst Colorado and Kansas had it not been for his surprise appearance at QB this season.
J Martin: Can I give it to 2 guys if they're on the same team? Statistically, it's Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State. He's in the top 2 in receptions per game, receiving yards per game, and scoring. The latter of which he's done despite missing a game due to suspension. He makes big plays and he makes them often. However, I'd also have to give credit to his quarterback Brandon Weeden. Someone has to get Blackmon the ball, right? I think Weeden's emergence as a quality spread quarterback has been the biggest factor in OSU's rise from being declared DOA in most preseason publications to a Top 25 team and possible conference champion.
Kevin: This is a toss up between Kendall Hunter (1240 yds, 6.1 ypc, 14 TD) and his QB Brandon Wheedon (leds the Big 12 in passing yds, yds/attempt, TD, QB rating, etc).
Ross: Baylor QB Robert Griffin III. Without him, Baylor's a 2-3 win team rather than being a legitimate conference title contender. He's leading the conference in total yards (416 yards rushing, 2859 yards passing), has accounted for 27 touchdowns, and he's the unquestioned leader of that team. He's been incredible. Oklahoma State has the league leaders in passing (Brandon Weeden), rushing (Kendall Hunter), and receiving (Justin Blackmon), but their combined excellence works against identifying one of them as the singular best player in the league.
What is the most interesting game left on the Big 12 schedule?
J Martin: There are far too many interesting games left on the Big 12 schedule. Can I cheat and give two answers again? As of today, it's Oklahoma State vs. Texas. That's a huge swing game for Texas' bowl hopes. If they win, they're in. They'll easily top FAU the next week. But if they lose...the Texas vs. Texas A&M showdown on Thanksgiving gets bigger than it's been in years, with the Aggies getting the chance to send Texas home for the holidays. There's nothing more interesting than watching a national power fall on it's face (as I have learned the hard way).
Kevin: I've got Oklahoma/Oklahoma State because this is the game that the Big 12 South should come down to. Plus, it's in Stillwater which should make this very very interesting.
Ross: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. Not only is it the annual "Bedlam" game and a heated rivalry between two top programs that's seen a few upsets in recent years, but it's likely to be the game that decides the Big 12 South race this year. The stakes should be very high for this game, which ought to make it awfully intense. There's also a lot of star power in this game, since you have arguably the Big 12's two best quarterbacks (Weeden and Landry Jones), two best running backs (Hunter and DeMarco Murray), and two best wide receivers (Blackmon and Ryan Broyles). This game has all the makings of a wild shootout between two high-powered, star-laden offenses, which should make for a pretty exciting affair.
Who wins the Big 12 South?
J Martin: I like Oklahoma State. Baylor is having a nice year, but it's hard to take them seriously as a legit title contender. Same with Texas A&M. And after the Sooners' loss to A&M, it's perfectly conceivable that they could slip up against Baylor or Texas Tech and take themselves out of the running before they get to Okie State. Meanwhile, unless Texas can muster another Nebraska-caliber effort this weekend, the Cowboys are playing a one-game season from this point forward. The odds are in their favor.
Kevin: Right now I'm leaning towards Okie State because they have the home-field advantage in the final game. Ask me again next week and the answer could be very different.
Ross: I think Oklahoma State edges Oklahoma on the basis of an easier schedule and home-field advantage in their season-ending clash. Texas is reeling and Kansas is dreadful, which should enable Okie State to get to 6-1. Oklahoma should be able to handle Texas Tech at home, but they've struggled on the road and Baylor will be very tricky. Assuming they get by that game, a season-ending road game against Oklahoma State looks pretty daunting, too. Baylor and Texas A&M are out of the running since Oklahoma State already has head-to-head wins over them and they'd need Okie State to drop TWO more games in their final three -- which doesn't seem likely.
Has Tommy Tuberville's debut season at Texas Tech been a success?
Alex: I say yes as it is hard to gage a coaches success rate over the first season. Texas Tech made a huge mistake when they fired (and not just reprimand) Leech. Tubbs needs his own players for his system and do remember he was on the way out of Auburn before exploding with 2 and 1/2 great seasons. He is holding his own, give him three more years before the axe comes crashing down at a school without any expectations.
J Martin: I think he's mostly succeeded at maintaining the status quo under Mike Leach (win 7-9 games consistently) while avoiding the meltdown that a lot of Tech fans feared when considering Tub's last foray into the spread offense. That was probably the best case scenario for this season.
Kevin: I wouldn't call it a "success" but it's not a failure. Tech should go 2-1 in their last 3 which would put them at 7-5. If he continually posts 7-5 then that's not what Tech wants but if he can build on this season then I think we can look back on it as a success.
Ross: If he can string together three more wins and close out at 8-4, it would be a pretty solid season. Anything less than that would be pretty disappointing. The wins over Baylor and Missouri are nice, but the losses are embarrassing, especially the games against Texas (in light of what they've become) and Iowa State (Tech collapsed in ugly fashion against them). Plus, this was a very vulnerable Big 12 and a favorable schedule for them -- no Nebraska, the worst Texas team in well over a decade, and an Oklahoma team that's good but not great -- so only mustering a 7-5 schedule with that would be pretty lackluster. 8-4 still wouldn't be great, but it would at least be palatable. Still, it's hard to look at this season and think that Mike Leach couldn't have done more -- and possibly led Texas Tech on the breakthrough season that Oklahoma State instead seems to be enjoying.
Alex: By far it is Texas's fall. How many teams go from losing the national championship game to possibly being last in the conference?
J Martin: It has to be Texas' fall. I never bought into the Garrett Gilbert craze, never thought he was going to step in and be an instant superstar after he made a few good throws against Alabama in the BCS title game. I never bought into this idea that Texas was suddenly going to become a pro-style, power running team and not miss a beat on offense despite not having the personnel to do it. And yet I also never thought we'd be here in the 2nd week of November wondering if Texas was even going to make a bowl. That's shocking. With the talent and the coaches that the Longhorns have, they should never, ever, lose 5 games in a year. But here they are, sitting at 4-5, staring down the barrel of two more.
Kevin: Texas is a huge surprise but I think Okie State is just as surprising. In our pre-season preview we picked Okie State DOA and chose them to come in a tie for 5th with Baylor. Phil Steele picked them dead last in the Big 12 South calling it a rebuilding year. ESPN said they would finish in 5th and 7-5.
Ross: The rise of Baylor, the fall of Texas, and the continued (and even greater) success of Oklahoma State have all been pretty remarkable surprises, but I'd have to say the freefall of Texas been the biggest stunner. In hindsight, it wasn't totally crazy to see Baylor and Oklahoma State being good since they each returned an offensive star (RB Kendall Hunter for Okie State, QB Robert Griffin for Baylor), although it would have been nuts to project this much success for them. But Texas slumming it at 4-5 and in real danger of not even making a bowl? That's absurd to even contemplate -- especially after seeing them get so thoroughly and comprehensively beaten by UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State. None of those losses were fluky in the slightest -- Texas just got completely outplayed. For that to happen with a team with such obvious talent (unless the recruiting services were wildly inaccurate) is mind blowing. Barring an unlikely turnaround, this is going to go down as one of the most sudden, surprising, and inexplicable collapses of a major program in recent history.
Who is the Big 12 Player of the Year so far?
Alex: Taylor Martinez is your PotY. Nebraska would be dead in the water amongst Colorado and Kansas had it not been for his surprise appearance at QB this season.
J Martin: Can I give it to 2 guys if they're on the same team? Statistically, it's Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State. He's in the top 2 in receptions per game, receiving yards per game, and scoring. The latter of which he's done despite missing a game due to suspension. He makes big plays and he makes them often. However, I'd also have to give credit to his quarterback Brandon Weeden. Someone has to get Blackmon the ball, right? I think Weeden's emergence as a quality spread quarterback has been the biggest factor in OSU's rise from being declared DOA in most preseason publications to a Top 25 team and possible conference champion.
Kevin: This is a toss up between Kendall Hunter (1240 yds, 6.1 ypc, 14 TD) and his QB Brandon Wheedon (leds the Big 12 in passing yds, yds/attempt, TD, QB rating, etc).
Ross: Baylor QB Robert Griffin III. Without him, Baylor's a 2-3 win team rather than being a legitimate conference title contender. He's leading the conference in total yards (416 yards rushing, 2859 yards passing), has accounted for 27 touchdowns, and he's the unquestioned leader of that team. He's been incredible. Oklahoma State has the league leaders in passing (Brandon Weeden), rushing (Kendall Hunter), and receiving (Justin Blackmon), but their combined excellence works against identifying one of them as the singular best player in the league.
What is the most interesting game left on the Big 12 schedule?
J Martin: There are far too many interesting games left on the Big 12 schedule. Can I cheat and give two answers again? As of today, it's Oklahoma State vs. Texas. That's a huge swing game for Texas' bowl hopes. If they win, they're in. They'll easily top FAU the next week. But if they lose...the Texas vs. Texas A&M showdown on Thanksgiving gets bigger than it's been in years, with the Aggies getting the chance to send Texas home for the holidays. There's nothing more interesting than watching a national power fall on it's face (as I have learned the hard way).
Kevin: I've got Oklahoma/Oklahoma State because this is the game that the Big 12 South should come down to. Plus, it's in Stillwater which should make this very very interesting.
Ross: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. Not only is it the annual "Bedlam" game and a heated rivalry between two top programs that's seen a few upsets in recent years, but it's likely to be the game that decides the Big 12 South race this year. The stakes should be very high for this game, which ought to make it awfully intense. There's also a lot of star power in this game, since you have arguably the Big 12's two best quarterbacks (Weeden and Landry Jones), two best running backs (Hunter and DeMarco Murray), and two best wide receivers (Blackmon and Ryan Broyles). This game has all the makings of a wild shootout between two high-powered, star-laden offenses, which should make for a pretty exciting affair.
Who wins the Big 12 South?
J Martin: I like Oklahoma State. Baylor is having a nice year, but it's hard to take them seriously as a legit title contender. Same with Texas A&M. And after the Sooners' loss to A&M, it's perfectly conceivable that they could slip up against Baylor or Texas Tech and take themselves out of the running before they get to Okie State. Meanwhile, unless Texas can muster another Nebraska-caliber effort this weekend, the Cowboys are playing a one-game season from this point forward. The odds are in their favor.
Kevin: Right now I'm leaning towards Okie State because they have the home-field advantage in the final game. Ask me again next week and the answer could be very different.
Ross: I think Oklahoma State edges Oklahoma on the basis of an easier schedule and home-field advantage in their season-ending clash. Texas is reeling and Kansas is dreadful, which should enable Okie State to get to 6-1. Oklahoma should be able to handle Texas Tech at home, but they've struggled on the road and Baylor will be very tricky. Assuming they get by that game, a season-ending road game against Oklahoma State looks pretty daunting, too. Baylor and Texas A&M are out of the running since Oklahoma State already has head-to-head wins over them and they'd need Okie State to drop TWO more games in their final three -- which doesn't seem likely.
Has Tommy Tuberville's debut season at Texas Tech been a success?
Alex: I say yes as it is hard to gage a coaches success rate over the first season. Texas Tech made a huge mistake when they fired (and not just reprimand) Leech. Tubbs needs his own players for his system and do remember he was on the way out of Auburn before exploding with 2 and 1/2 great seasons. He is holding his own, give him three more years before the axe comes crashing down at a school without any expectations.
J Martin: I think he's mostly succeeded at maintaining the status quo under Mike Leach (win 7-9 games consistently) while avoiding the meltdown that a lot of Tech fans feared when considering Tub's last foray into the spread offense. That was probably the best case scenario for this season.
Kevin: I wouldn't call it a "success" but it's not a failure. Tech should go 2-1 in their last 3 which would put them at 7-5. If he continually posts 7-5 then that's not what Tech wants but if he can build on this season then I think we can look back on it as a success.
Ross: If he can string together three more wins and close out at 8-4, it would be a pretty solid season. Anything less than that would be pretty disappointing. The wins over Baylor and Missouri are nice, but the losses are embarrassing, especially the games against Texas (in light of what they've become) and Iowa State (Tech collapsed in ugly fashion against them). Plus, this was a very vulnerable Big 12 and a favorable schedule for them -- no Nebraska, the worst Texas team in well over a decade, and an Oklahoma team that's good but not great -- so only mustering a 7-5 schedule with that would be pretty lackluster. 8-4 still wouldn't be great, but it would at least be palatable. Still, it's hard to look at this season and think that Mike Leach couldn't have done more -- and possibly led Texas Tech on the breakthrough season that Oklahoma State instead seems to be enjoying.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Five Questions: Big Ten Edition
There is a 4-way log jam at the top of the Big Ten. Who is the best team?
Alex: Even after tanking against Iowa, Michigan State has a chance to slip into the Rose Bowl. Iowa/Ohio State is the toughest game any of these teams have to face, with Michigan State/Penn State a close second. If Michigan State were to blow the game Wisconsin is Pasadena bound. However to answer the question I still feel Iowa is the best team in the Big 10 in the slimmest of margins over Wisconsin.
J Martin: My instinct is to say Ohio State is still the "best" team by virtue of having the most talent of anybody in the conference. However, they lost convincingly to by far the best team they've played and haven't been challenged otherwise, so I feel like I don't really know this team as well as the others. Conversely, there's a fair amount of empirical evidence supporting Wisconsin as the best of the bunch. They thumped OSU at home, then went on the road and edged out Iowa on the road in consecutive weeks. That's awfully impressive.
Kevin: I've got Wisconsin. They lost to Michigan State but since then they have beat Ohio State and Iowa. Ohio State hasn't beaten anybody and Iowa has 2 losses. If Iowa routes Ohio State I might be persuaded to change my opinion.
Ross: TBD until after the Iowa-Ohio State game, but right now it's either Iowa or Wisconsin. Wisconsin went 2-1 against the other three teams, losing fairly badly to MSU but getting an impressive win over OSU and winning a squeaker over Iowa. Iowa has the most impressive win of the lot with their 37-6 beatdown of MSU, but they also lost that game to Wisconsin. Gun to my head right now I'd probably say Wisconsin by a hair.
RichRod is 6-3 and Ron Zook is 5-4. Will they be retained or shown the door?
Alex: I do not feel as if either coach should be shown the door. They have beaten the teams they should have, and lost to the upper echelon of the Big 10. I have never felt that either team was ready to break out of the middle tier. Illinois can still be an 8-win team as it has a better defense and no offensive juggernauts left in the schedule. Giving Michigan 65 points was just an anomaly, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Fresno State will not touch that figure. Michigan is looking at a 7 or 8 win season. Wisconsin is a loss, Purdue is a win and Ohio State is an unknown. Michigan is tired of getting beaten on by the Buckeyes and they might just make a big splash in the Ohio State pond, which would lock RichRod in for another season.
J Martin: I think both of those guys are going to stick around. Rodriguez probably needs to beat Purdue this weekend just to be sure, but he's at least done the minimum amount necessary to keep his job. Plus, he's got Denard coming back, and he can sell his ability to maximize his talents as opposed to starting over with a new coach and a new offensive philosophy. Zook isn't quite there yet, but I feel pretty good about his odds of beating Minnesota and maybe even going out west and beating Fresno. They should probably just make Paul Petrino head coach, though.
Kevin: I do think they both deserve a chance to come back and build on what they have accomplished so far this year (barring a complete collapse at the end of the year).
Ross: Both will be retained. Rodriguez should win at least seven games this regular season (they ought to beat Purdue this week) and they could certainly win a bowl game for an 8th total win, depending on the match-up. It's also not completely unreasonable that they could pull off an upset of Wisconsin or Ohio State, given their incredibly explosive offense. Either way, 7-8 wins and one of the nation's best offenses should get Rodriguez another year -- provided he agrees to make some changes on defense. Zook will be retained with a few more wins -- which seems like with three more games against Minnesota, Northwestern, and Fresno State. With a bowl game, they could win nine games, which would be remarkable. As it is, a 7-5 regular season seems like a good bet -- and that's good progress after the last two disastrous seasons.
Who is the Player of the Year in the Big 10 so far?
Alex: Denard Robinson from Michigan. This will change by years end but he got Michigan off to a rocketing start which may well help Rich stay in Ann Arbor. Robinson is currently 1st in Rushing, 2nd in Total Offense, 6th in Passing and 7th in scoring. There is not one Big 10 player that can boast such numbers. The fact that he is out with an injury is what will cost him this title by years end, but there is no way to deny him the pole position as we stand in early November.
J Martin: Denard, of course. He's very impressive for a guy who's probably only logged about 6 games worth of field time.
Kevin: From a statistics stand point Denard looks very good but I have a problem picking a "Player of the Year" from a team that is 2-3 in the conference. So it's John Clay of Wisconsin. Leads the league in rushing TDs and is 2nd to only Denard in yards rushing.
Ross: It's Denard Robinson and it's not even close -- 118/186, 1814 passing yards, 13/7 TD/INT, 183 carries, 1349 rushing yards, 12 TD. And he did that despite missing time in every game this season because of injury. He's been simply sensational and the leading reason why Michigan's offense has gone from "good" to "amazing."
Where does Nebraska fit in next year? Will they be the pre-season favorite to win the Big 10?
Alex: Nebraska is going to be a middle of the pack team. I would say 4th at very best but probably around 6th. The Big 12 is not as defensive minded as the Big 10, and Nebraska is not as good now as many think they are. If they get better a solid fourth is in the future, but if they get worse a battle with Michigan or Illinois for 5th and 6th place could be in store for the Huskers. Also note that many of these transitions do not go as planned. The ACC brought Miami, BC, and Virginia Tech into the fold and the one that they WANTED to contend for the title (Miami) did not. VT and BC have had very good success since the transition. In the SEC Arkansas and South Carolina were brought in before the 92 season and neither has won a conference championship. This is not Nebraska walking into an inferior conference, and the Huskers best remember that.
J Martin: They'll be one of the two most talented teams in the conference the moment they set foot through the door. Whether they'll be the favorite to win the conference depends on if Pryor comes back to play his senior year at Ohio State. The Buckeyes with a superstar QB will always get the benefit of a doubt. But Taylor Martinez and that Pelini defense will give them a battle for it, that's for sure.
Kevin: I'm tempted to pick Nebraska first in the Big Ten out of the gate. If Roy Helu Jr wasn't a Jr I probably would. At this point I'm slotting them 2nd or 3rd but they have a legit shot at winning and contending for the Big Ten title next year.
Ross: It's hard to say without knowing exactly what Nebraska returns next year, but based on their play this year, they should be a solid contender -- but not an overwhelming favorite by any means. The schedule -- games against Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State -- will prevent that. They should probably finish in the top five of the league, though.
Who should Minnesota turn to in order to turn their program around?
Alex: You could ask me this for any struggling team in the nation and my first choice will always be Mike Leech. He has done more for the passing game than anyone in the past two or three decades. If he can bring TTech to a nationally recognized level, he can do it for any team. Other choices include Skip Holtz, and Art Briles.
J Martin: There are a lot of positives to the Minnesota job, but the program was run into the ground over the past few years. It now safely qualifies as a "rebuilding job." For this sort of rebuilding job in particular, I'd look for an up-and-coming head coach still looking to make a name for himself a the BCS level that will be willing to really hustle for the program. Someone like Kevin Sumlin from Houston or Al Golden from Temple. Both have already had their names linked and both would be good choices. The last thing you want to do is hire some tired retread head coach or roll the dice on a hotshot assistant with no head coach experience.
Kevin: From an outsiders perspective I see Minnesota as a team that is going to have a really tough time contending for the upper echelon of the Big Ten year in and year out. Because of that I would go the Georgia Tech route. Get Ken Niumatalolo of Navy (23-12). Doing this causes Minnesota to be a difficult game for everybody on their schedule once they get some kids in to run the offense. The Big Ten is having a lot of trouble trying to stop Rich Rod and Michigan just imagine what would happen if you threw in an option type offense for them to have to deal with as well.
Ross: That's tough to answer, since I don't exactly want to see Minnesota improve their fortunes. That said, assuming Minnesota can't get one of the seeming home run hires like Chris Peterson or Gary Patterson or Jim Harbaugh (and they aren't going to get a guy like that), they should focus on a guy who's really hungry to prove himself and who understands the Big Ten well. The last thing they need is a retread like Phil Fulmer or Lou Holtz. Someone like Don Treadwell (the current Michigan State offensive coordinator) might be a good fit.
Alex: Even after tanking against Iowa, Michigan State has a chance to slip into the Rose Bowl. Iowa/Ohio State is the toughest game any of these teams have to face, with Michigan State/Penn State a close second. If Michigan State were to blow the game Wisconsin is Pasadena bound. However to answer the question I still feel Iowa is the best team in the Big 10 in the slimmest of margins over Wisconsin.
J Martin: My instinct is to say Ohio State is still the "best" team by virtue of having the most talent of anybody in the conference. However, they lost convincingly to by far the best team they've played and haven't been challenged otherwise, so I feel like I don't really know this team as well as the others. Conversely, there's a fair amount of empirical evidence supporting Wisconsin as the best of the bunch. They thumped OSU at home, then went on the road and edged out Iowa on the road in consecutive weeks. That's awfully impressive.
Kevin: I've got Wisconsin. They lost to Michigan State but since then they have beat Ohio State and Iowa. Ohio State hasn't beaten anybody and Iowa has 2 losses. If Iowa routes Ohio State I might be persuaded to change my opinion.
Ross: TBD until after the Iowa-Ohio State game, but right now it's either Iowa or Wisconsin. Wisconsin went 2-1 against the other three teams, losing fairly badly to MSU but getting an impressive win over OSU and winning a squeaker over Iowa. Iowa has the most impressive win of the lot with their 37-6 beatdown of MSU, but they also lost that game to Wisconsin. Gun to my head right now I'd probably say Wisconsin by a hair.
RichRod is 6-3 and Ron Zook is 5-4. Will they be retained or shown the door?
Alex: I do not feel as if either coach should be shown the door. They have beaten the teams they should have, and lost to the upper echelon of the Big 10. I have never felt that either team was ready to break out of the middle tier. Illinois can still be an 8-win team as it has a better defense and no offensive juggernauts left in the schedule. Giving Michigan 65 points was just an anomaly, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Fresno State will not touch that figure. Michigan is looking at a 7 or 8 win season. Wisconsin is a loss, Purdue is a win and Ohio State is an unknown. Michigan is tired of getting beaten on by the Buckeyes and they might just make a big splash in the Ohio State pond, which would lock RichRod in for another season.
J Martin: I think both of those guys are going to stick around. Rodriguez probably needs to beat Purdue this weekend just to be sure, but he's at least done the minimum amount necessary to keep his job. Plus, he's got Denard coming back, and he can sell his ability to maximize his talents as opposed to starting over with a new coach and a new offensive philosophy. Zook isn't quite there yet, but I feel pretty good about his odds of beating Minnesota and maybe even going out west and beating Fresno. They should probably just make Paul Petrino head coach, though.
Kevin: I do think they both deserve a chance to come back and build on what they have accomplished so far this year (barring a complete collapse at the end of the year).
Ross: Both will be retained. Rodriguez should win at least seven games this regular season (they ought to beat Purdue this week) and they could certainly win a bowl game for an 8th total win, depending on the match-up. It's also not completely unreasonable that they could pull off an upset of Wisconsin or Ohio State, given their incredibly explosive offense. Either way, 7-8 wins and one of the nation's best offenses should get Rodriguez another year -- provided he agrees to make some changes on defense. Zook will be retained with a few more wins -- which seems like with three more games against Minnesota, Northwestern, and Fresno State. With a bowl game, they could win nine games, which would be remarkable. As it is, a 7-5 regular season seems like a good bet -- and that's good progress after the last two disastrous seasons.
Who is the Player of the Year in the Big 10 so far?
Alex: Denard Robinson from Michigan. This will change by years end but he got Michigan off to a rocketing start which may well help Rich stay in Ann Arbor. Robinson is currently 1st in Rushing, 2nd in Total Offense, 6th in Passing and 7th in scoring. There is not one Big 10 player that can boast such numbers. The fact that he is out with an injury is what will cost him this title by years end, but there is no way to deny him the pole position as we stand in early November.
J Martin: Denard, of course. He's very impressive for a guy who's probably only logged about 6 games worth of field time.
Kevin: From a statistics stand point Denard looks very good but I have a problem picking a "Player of the Year" from a team that is 2-3 in the conference. So it's John Clay of Wisconsin. Leads the league in rushing TDs and is 2nd to only Denard in yards rushing.
Ross: It's Denard Robinson and it's not even close -- 118/186, 1814 passing yards, 13/7 TD/INT, 183 carries, 1349 rushing yards, 12 TD. And he did that despite missing time in every game this season because of injury. He's been simply sensational and the leading reason why Michigan's offense has gone from "good" to "amazing."
Where does Nebraska fit in next year? Will they be the pre-season favorite to win the Big 10?
Alex: Nebraska is going to be a middle of the pack team. I would say 4th at very best but probably around 6th. The Big 12 is not as defensive minded as the Big 10, and Nebraska is not as good now as many think they are. If they get better a solid fourth is in the future, but if they get worse a battle with Michigan or Illinois for 5th and 6th place could be in store for the Huskers. Also note that many of these transitions do not go as planned. The ACC brought Miami, BC, and Virginia Tech into the fold and the one that they WANTED to contend for the title (Miami) did not. VT and BC have had very good success since the transition. In the SEC Arkansas and South Carolina were brought in before the 92 season and neither has won a conference championship. This is not Nebraska walking into an inferior conference, and the Huskers best remember that.
J Martin: They'll be one of the two most talented teams in the conference the moment they set foot through the door. Whether they'll be the favorite to win the conference depends on if Pryor comes back to play his senior year at Ohio State. The Buckeyes with a superstar QB will always get the benefit of a doubt. But Taylor Martinez and that Pelini defense will give them a battle for it, that's for sure.
Kevin: I'm tempted to pick Nebraska first in the Big Ten out of the gate. If Roy Helu Jr wasn't a Jr I probably would. At this point I'm slotting them 2nd or 3rd but they have a legit shot at winning and contending for the Big Ten title next year.
Ross: It's hard to say without knowing exactly what Nebraska returns next year, but based on their play this year, they should be a solid contender -- but not an overwhelming favorite by any means. The schedule -- games against Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State -- will prevent that. They should probably finish in the top five of the league, though.
Who should Minnesota turn to in order to turn their program around?
Alex: You could ask me this for any struggling team in the nation and my first choice will always be Mike Leech. He has done more for the passing game than anyone in the past two or three decades. If he can bring TTech to a nationally recognized level, he can do it for any team. Other choices include Skip Holtz, and Art Briles.
J Martin: There are a lot of positives to the Minnesota job, but the program was run into the ground over the past few years. It now safely qualifies as a "rebuilding job." For this sort of rebuilding job in particular, I'd look for an up-and-coming head coach still looking to make a name for himself a the BCS level that will be willing to really hustle for the program. Someone like Kevin Sumlin from Houston or Al Golden from Temple. Both have already had their names linked and both would be good choices. The last thing you want to do is hire some tired retread head coach or roll the dice on a hotshot assistant with no head coach experience.
Kevin: From an outsiders perspective I see Minnesota as a team that is going to have a really tough time contending for the upper echelon of the Big Ten year in and year out. Because of that I would go the Georgia Tech route. Get Ken Niumatalolo of Navy (23-12). Doing this causes Minnesota to be a difficult game for everybody on their schedule once they get some kids in to run the offense. The Big Ten is having a lot of trouble trying to stop Rich Rod and Michigan just imagine what would happen if you threw in an option type offense for them to have to deal with as well.
Ross: That's tough to answer, since I don't exactly want to see Minnesota improve their fortunes. That said, assuming Minnesota can't get one of the seeming home run hires like Chris Peterson or Gary Patterson or Jim Harbaugh (and they aren't going to get a guy like that), they should focus on a guy who's really hungry to prove himself and who understands the Big Ten well. The last thing they need is a retread like Phil Fulmer or Lou Holtz. Someone like Don Treadwell (the current Michigan State offensive coordinator) might be a good fit.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
The Six Pack Games Of The Week: October 28-30
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 27-15
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28#16 Florida State (6-1, 4-0) @ NC State (5-2, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After the 47-17 beatdown that FSU took at the hands of Oklahoma back in early September, the Seminoles quietly rebounded to rattle off five straight wins and take control of the ACC's Atlantic division, opening up a multi-game lead on NC State and Maryland. Of course, much of that winning streak came on the back of some wins over unimpressive competition; Miami was not only the lone ranked team FSU dispatched in that run, they were the only team with a winning record that FSU beat. The schedule stiffens from here on out, though; every team left on FSU's schedule is (at present) at least a game over .500 and the second through fourth-place teams in the Atlantic (NC State, Maryland, Clemson) comprise three of their next four opponents. After a promising 4-0 start, NC State stumbled by losing two of their next three games (including an upset loss to East Carolina); if they want to have realistic shot at catching FSU in the division, they need to win this game. They key to this game is what FSU defensive coordinator Mark Stoops has whipped up to slow down NC State QB Russell Wilson; if Stoops is successful, this could be a cakewalk for the 'Noles. If not, this one could be a real shootout. I'm leaning towards the former.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 34, NC STATE 20
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30Louisville (4-3, 1-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-3, 2-0) (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)Big East football? Yep, Big East football. Hey, someone has to win this league and get the automatic berth to a BCS bowl. Through two weeks, Pitt is the only Big East team undefeated in conference play -- but they have three non-conference losses, including a blowout at the hands of Miami and close road losses to Utah and Notre Dame. They may very well be the class of the Big East this year -- although that isn't necessarily saying a whole lot. Louisville's already equaled their win total from a year ago and all three of their losses have been close games against decent-ish foes (Kentucky, Oregon State, Cincinnati). Sandwiched around that most reecnt loss (Cincy) are two blowout wins (over dismal Memphis and rapidly-disintegrating UConn). Charlie Strong is getting things turned around there and a fair bit faster than many expected. That said, they probably aren't quite ready to win a game like this and genuinely contend for the Big East title just yet.
THE PICK: PITT 31, LOUISVILLE 21
#6 Missouri (7-0, 3-0) @ #14 Nebraska (6-1, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC)For three straight weeks a top-ranked team has gone down (Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma). The results after that game for the upset-pullers has been mixed; South Carolina went on the road and dropped a weird game to Kentucky, while Wisconsin went on the road to Iowa and narrowly came out with a win. Fresh off their big home win over Oklahoma, now Missouri has to go on the road to face a tough road game against a good Nebraska team. Nebraska had a wild bounce-back game against Oklahoma State a week ago, winning a 51-41 shootout (apparently the vaunted Blackshirt defense was on vacation). Now Nebraska has a chance to wrest control of the Big 12 North from Missouri, to avenge a 52-17 drubbing they suffered the last time Mizzou came to Lincoln... and to give Missouri one final eff you on their way out the door to the Big Ten. Missouri's surprising success this season has come on the back of their defense, which is quite a change from a few years ago, when they just relied on their high-powered offense to put up a ton of points on teams. Still, it's hard to avoid a letdown after such a momentous win and going on the road to play Nebraska and Lincoln is not exactly an ideal follow-up venue.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 28, MISSOURI 20
#5 Michigan State (8-0, 4-0) @ #18 Iowa (5-2, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)Every year there's a team that comes out of nowhere, rides some surprisingly strong play and good fortune to a gaudy record and national recognition. And more often than not, that team stubs their toe at some point. It's really, really hard to go undefeated in modern college football -- especially in one of the big six conferences. The weekly grind is intense, the pressure gets worse by the week, and all of your opponents start getting a little more amped to be the first squad to add a number to the loss column in your record. Teams that manage to navigate an entire season undefeated usually do so on the basis of having at least one truly elite unit (either offense or defense). The much-derided 2002 Ohio State team may have had only a patchwork offense, but they had a hellacious defense. The 2005 USC squad had a so-so defense, but one of the best offenses of the decade. And so on. After eight weeks you are what you are, and what Michigan State is is a good team -- perhaps even a very good team -- but not an elite one. Their defense is good, but not lockdown great. Their offense is good, but occasionally inconsistent. They've gotten exceptional special teams play and that can carry you a long way, but it's also not always a reliable means of scoring points. At least, this is what I tell myself as Sparty gets ready to play an Iowa team working with a make-shift LB corps and prone to some of the ugliest special teams breakdowns I've seen in the last decade of Iowa football. Iowa's back is against the wall -- a loss here and their high hopes for this season are officially toast -- and in spite of their now-obvious flaws, they do still have a very good defensive line (and the Spartan offensive line isn't the elite wall that the Wisco line was a week ago) and a surprisingly potent offense. They have the tools to win this game. At least, that's what I'm telling myself.
THE PICK: IOWA 28, MICHIGAN STATE 24
Florida (4-3, 2-3) @ Georgia (4-4, 3-3) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Prior to last week's much needed bye week, Florida was mired in by far the worst three-game skid of Urban Meyer's Florida tenure; they'd lost three in a row (including a home to loss to, of all teams, Mississippi State) and been held under ten points in two of those losses. The Florida offense has been a FEMA-worthy disaster area all season, but it reached new lows in the embarrassing 7-point effort against Mississippi State. So has a week off been enough to work out the kinks and get them back to a level of, if not good quality, then perhaps just passable quality? To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Tim Tebow isn't walking through that door. Neither is Percy Harvin. The Florida offense remains an oddball collection of players who are very inconsistent (most of the receivers and running backs), just not that good (Emmanuel Moody), or a bad fit for the offense trying to be run (John Brantley). Oh, and they're still coached by Steve Adazzio, who looks increasingly overmatched in his OC position. On the other hand, Georgia has rebounded from their disastrous 1-4 start to rattle off three straight wins and improbably give them a shot at winning the SEC East. They've scored 40+ in all three games; clearly getting AJ Green back from his suspension and the continued development of Washaun Early and Aaron Murray has done wonders for them. That said, the Florida defense has been pretty good this year -- outside two 30+ point efforts conceded to Alabama and LSU, they've held every other foe to 17 points or less. And there is the little matter of Florida absolutely, positively owning Georgia -- they're 17-3 in the last twenty meetings. And they've had a bye week to sort things out and prepare for Georgia. But still... it's hard to completely overlook a half-season's worth of futility. If Georgia can't beat this Florida team, when will they ever beat Florida?
THE PICK: GEORGIA 27, FLORIDA 17
#2 Oregon (7-0, 4-0) @ USC (5-2, 2-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC)A year ago, Oregon's 47-20 destruction of USC served as a clear statement that the era of USC dominance in the Pac-10 was over. A year later, Oregon's now the team with the target on its back and the team with conference and national title ambitions. With two conference losses already (and the sanctions that prevent them from going to a bowl anyway), USC's been reduced to the unfamiliar role of spoiler -- but it's also a role they seem to have embraced (at least against a foe like Oregon). Oregon's coming off yet another lopsided destruction, a 60-13 evisceration of UCLA. USC's coming off a bye and a 48-14 dismantling of Cal that was undoubtedly their best win of the season. Will two weeks of prep time enable USC to engineer a defensive gameplan that allows them to stop Oregon's ridiculously powerful offense? Doubtful. USC's best bet is to take advantage of their own potent offense (Matt Barkley, Robert Woods, Ronald Johnson, and Allen Bradford are all on a roll right now) and hope to get enough turnovers or stops to win a shootout. Winning a shootout against Oregon is easier said than done, though.
THE PICK: OREGON 42, USC 34
LAST WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 27-15
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28#16 Florida State (6-1, 4-0) @ NC State (5-2, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After the 47-17 beatdown that FSU took at the hands of Oklahoma back in early September, the Seminoles quietly rebounded to rattle off five straight wins and take control of the ACC's Atlantic division, opening up a multi-game lead on NC State and Maryland. Of course, much of that winning streak came on the back of some wins over unimpressive competition; Miami was not only the lone ranked team FSU dispatched in that run, they were the only team with a winning record that FSU beat. The schedule stiffens from here on out, though; every team left on FSU's schedule is (at present) at least a game over .500 and the second through fourth-place teams in the Atlantic (NC State, Maryland, Clemson) comprise three of their next four opponents. After a promising 4-0 start, NC State stumbled by losing two of their next three games (including an upset loss to East Carolina); if they want to have realistic shot at catching FSU in the division, they need to win this game. They key to this game is what FSU defensive coordinator Mark Stoops has whipped up to slow down NC State QB Russell Wilson; if Stoops is successful, this could be a cakewalk for the 'Noles. If not, this one could be a real shootout. I'm leaning towards the former.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 34, NC STATE 20
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30Louisville (4-3, 1-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-3, 2-0) (12pm EST, ESPN3.com)Big East football? Yep, Big East football. Hey, someone has to win this league and get the automatic berth to a BCS bowl. Through two weeks, Pitt is the only Big East team undefeated in conference play -- but they have three non-conference losses, including a blowout at the hands of Miami and close road losses to Utah and Notre Dame. They may very well be the class of the Big East this year -- although that isn't necessarily saying a whole lot. Louisville's already equaled their win total from a year ago and all three of their losses have been close games against decent-ish foes (Kentucky, Oregon State, Cincinnati). Sandwiched around that most reecnt loss (Cincy) are two blowout wins (over dismal Memphis and rapidly-disintegrating UConn). Charlie Strong is getting things turned around there and a fair bit faster than many expected. That said, they probably aren't quite ready to win a game like this and genuinely contend for the Big East title just yet.
THE PICK: PITT 31, LOUISVILLE 21
#6 Missouri (7-0, 3-0) @ #14 Nebraska (6-1, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC)For three straight weeks a top-ranked team has gone down (Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma). The results after that game for the upset-pullers has been mixed; South Carolina went on the road and dropped a weird game to Kentucky, while Wisconsin went on the road to Iowa and narrowly came out with a win. Fresh off their big home win over Oklahoma, now Missouri has to go on the road to face a tough road game against a good Nebraska team. Nebraska had a wild bounce-back game against Oklahoma State a week ago, winning a 51-41 shootout (apparently the vaunted Blackshirt defense was on vacation). Now Nebraska has a chance to wrest control of the Big 12 North from Missouri, to avenge a 52-17 drubbing they suffered the last time Mizzou came to Lincoln... and to give Missouri one final eff you on their way out the door to the Big Ten. Missouri's surprising success this season has come on the back of their defense, which is quite a change from a few years ago, when they just relied on their high-powered offense to put up a ton of points on teams. Still, it's hard to avoid a letdown after such a momentous win and going on the road to play Nebraska and Lincoln is not exactly an ideal follow-up venue.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 28, MISSOURI 20
#5 Michigan State (8-0, 4-0) @ #18 Iowa (5-2, 2-1) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)Every year there's a team that comes out of nowhere, rides some surprisingly strong play and good fortune to a gaudy record and national recognition. And more often than not, that team stubs their toe at some point. It's really, really hard to go undefeated in modern college football -- especially in one of the big six conferences. The weekly grind is intense, the pressure gets worse by the week, and all of your opponents start getting a little more amped to be the first squad to add a number to the loss column in your record. Teams that manage to navigate an entire season undefeated usually do so on the basis of having at least one truly elite unit (either offense or defense). The much-derided 2002 Ohio State team may have had only a patchwork offense, but they had a hellacious defense. The 2005 USC squad had a so-so defense, but one of the best offenses of the decade. And so on. After eight weeks you are what you are, and what Michigan State is is a good team -- perhaps even a very good team -- but not an elite one. Their defense is good, but not lockdown great. Their offense is good, but occasionally inconsistent. They've gotten exceptional special teams play and that can carry you a long way, but it's also not always a reliable means of scoring points. At least, this is what I tell myself as Sparty gets ready to play an Iowa team working with a make-shift LB corps and prone to some of the ugliest special teams breakdowns I've seen in the last decade of Iowa football. Iowa's back is against the wall -- a loss here and their high hopes for this season are officially toast -- and in spite of their now-obvious flaws, they do still have a very good defensive line (and the Spartan offensive line isn't the elite wall that the Wisco line was a week ago) and a surprisingly potent offense. They have the tools to win this game. At least, that's what I'm telling myself.
THE PICK: IOWA 28, MICHIGAN STATE 24
Florida (4-3, 2-3) @ Georgia (4-4, 3-3) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Prior to last week's much needed bye week, Florida was mired in by far the worst three-game skid of Urban Meyer's Florida tenure; they'd lost three in a row (including a home to loss to, of all teams, Mississippi State) and been held under ten points in two of those losses. The Florida offense has been a FEMA-worthy disaster area all season, but it reached new lows in the embarrassing 7-point effort against Mississippi State. So has a week off been enough to work out the kinks and get them back to a level of, if not good quality, then perhaps just passable quality? To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Tim Tebow isn't walking through that door. Neither is Percy Harvin. The Florida offense remains an oddball collection of players who are very inconsistent (most of the receivers and running backs), just not that good (Emmanuel Moody), or a bad fit for the offense trying to be run (John Brantley). Oh, and they're still coached by Steve Adazzio, who looks increasingly overmatched in his OC position. On the other hand, Georgia has rebounded from their disastrous 1-4 start to rattle off three straight wins and improbably give them a shot at winning the SEC East. They've scored 40+ in all three games; clearly getting AJ Green back from his suspension and the continued development of Washaun Early and Aaron Murray has done wonders for them. That said, the Florida defense has been pretty good this year -- outside two 30+ point efforts conceded to Alabama and LSU, they've held every other foe to 17 points or less. And there is the little matter of Florida absolutely, positively owning Georgia -- they're 17-3 in the last twenty meetings. And they've had a bye week to sort things out and prepare for Georgia. But still... it's hard to completely overlook a half-season's worth of futility. If Georgia can't beat this Florida team, when will they ever beat Florida?
THE PICK: GEORGIA 27, FLORIDA 17
#2 Oregon (7-0, 4-0) @ USC (5-2, 2-2) (3:30pm EST, ABC)A year ago, Oregon's 47-20 destruction of USC served as a clear statement that the era of USC dominance in the Pac-10 was over. A year later, Oregon's now the team with the target on its back and the team with conference and national title ambitions. With two conference losses already (and the sanctions that prevent them from going to a bowl anyway), USC's been reduced to the unfamiliar role of spoiler -- but it's also a role they seem to have embraced (at least against a foe like Oregon). Oregon's coming off yet another lopsided destruction, a 60-13 evisceration of UCLA. USC's coming off a bye and a 48-14 dismantling of Cal that was undoubtedly their best win of the season. Will two weeks of prep time enable USC to engineer a defensive gameplan that allows them to stop Oregon's ridiculously powerful offense? Doubtful. USC's best bet is to take advantage of their own potent offense (Matt Barkley, Robert Woods, Ronald Johnson, and Allen Bradford are all on a roll right now) and hope to get enough turnovers or stops to win a shootout. Winning a shootout against Oregon is easier said than done, though.
THE PICK: OREGON 42, USC 34
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