Every year college players have the chance to realize their dreams and cash in on a potentially lucrative career by taking their talents to the NFL. Let's take a look at some of the guys who passed up the possibility of declaring for the NFL draft in order to stay in school and possibly help lead their teams to Conference and National Championships.
1. Justin Blackmon and Brandon Wheedon, Oklahoma State- Okie State was picked by everybody to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South this year. But led by Brandon Wheedon, Justin Blackmon and Kendall Hunter they put up the 2nd most points in College Football and passed for the 3rd most yards. As a redshirt sophomore Justin Blackmon emerged as one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the land. In 12 games he caught 111 balls for 1782 yards and 20 TD. He finished 1st in the Nation in TD receptions, 1st in Receiving Yards per game, 2nd in Total Receiving Yards, 2nd in Receptions per Game and 3rd in Total Receptions. To say it was a break-out season would be a huge understatement. In 2009 Brandon Wheedon backed up Zac Robinson and only threw 24 passes all season. This year he got his opportunity and did not waste it. Wheedon put up 4277 yards passing (2nd to only Landry Jones in Big 12 land) and was the highest rated passer in the pass happy Big 12. I'm not sure about how valued Wheedon is by the NFL, especially since he's a 27 year old college QB, but getting both of these guys to come back to school (especially Blackmon) was a huge coo for Mike Gundy. Now the biggest question is how the Cowboys offense will function with Dana Holgerson moving on to West Virginia.
2. Andrew Luck, Stanford- This was the most surprising of all as Luck was thought by many to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. Luck would be my #1 with a bullet if Jim Harbaugh had come back to coach Stanford. Stanford did stay in house with their coaching choice to replace Harbaugh by picking Offensive Coordinator David Shaw. Keeping the offense in tact will be huge for Shaw and Luck. Luck was the third highest rated passer in the Nation (behind some guys named Cam Newton and Kellen Moore) and also led the Pac-10 in Passing Yards and TD. I think it's safe to say that Stanford is here to stay (at least for another year).
3. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma- Oklahoma went 12-2 this year and won the Big 12 Championship. Now they are poised for a run at the National Championship and Broyles coming back gives them the shot in the arm that they might just need to get them over the hump. Broyles led the Nation last year with 131 catches and helped Landry Jones become a much better QB in 2010. Broyles also led the Nation with 9.4 receptions per game, that's an incredible number and Big 12 defenses are going to have their hands full with Broyles and the Sooners offense next year.
4. Kellen Moore, Boise State- Ok, so maybe he's not widely coveted by the NFL. But we still see guys go pro that have no business doing so. Moore is only listed as 6'0" so maybe he's not the typical NFL QB but he sure is the cog that keeps Boise State going. This year the Broncos lose their top two receiving targets in Titus Young and Austin Pettis (both reeled in 71 catches last year) so keeping Moore is huge for maintaining the offense and breaking in some new targets. Moore's stats are as impressive as any other QB in College Football. Over the last two years he has passed for over 7000 yards and has 74 TD and only 9 Interceptions.
5. Case Keenum, Houston- This isn't the typical staying in school but Keenum was a 5th year senior who suffered a torn ACL and missed the last 9 games of last season. Without Keenum, Houston finished the season winning just 3 of their last 9 and concluded the season with a record of 5-7. With Keenum they went 10-4 in 2009. In the two years spanning 2008 and 2009 Keenum passed for over 10,000 yards and posted 44 TD in both of those seasons. If nothing else, Keenum provides us bloggers and sports writers some stats to drool over. Keenum was granted a 6th season by the NCAA and this guy is looking forward to watching it.
6. Jared Crick, Nebraska- There are some good defensive players who passed up the draft but this one might have the biggest impact. Last year Crick posted 70 total tackles (3rd on the team), 14.5 tackles for loss (5th in the Big 12) and 9.5 sacks (2nd in the Big 12). Nebraska was 9th in scoring defense last year in the Nation but their offense faltered and they fell to defeat in 3 of their last 4 games. With Crick coming back Nebraska doesn't need to worry about their DL as they prepare for their first game in their inaugural season in the Big 10.
Honorable Mention: Michael Floyd/Notre Dame, Mark Barron/Alabama, Janoris Jenkins/Florida, LaMichael James/Oregon, Russell Wilson/NC State
Showing posts with label Oklahoma Sooners. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oklahoma Sooners. Show all posts
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Oklahoma Sooners: 2010 Exit Survey
2010 CFBZ Prediction: 1st Place in Big 12 South (Runner-Up in Big 12)
2010 Actual Finish: Big 12 Conference Champion (12-2, 6-2)
I wasn't a big believer in the Oklahoma Sooners coming into the 2010 season. They were coming off of an 8-5 season and had lost the majority of starters off of their defense. Bob Stoops did a good job this year of getting the troops back and marching to a 12-2 season and a BCS Bowl victory. The two losses stick out a little because they were against Missouri and Texas A&M, two good teams but teams that barely cracked the Top 20 in the final AP poll while Oklahoma finished 6th. Oklahoma carries a lot of momentum into the 2011/2012 season and they look like a team that will be a sure fire pre-season Top 5 pick. They finished off their schedule this year by beating up Texas Tech and Baylor and then beating rivals Nebraska and Oklahoma State in a couple of close, tough games. We turned to the Oklahoma Sooners Blog Land Thieves to find out what they thought about the 2010 Oklahoma Sooners.
2010 Actual Finish: Big 12 Conference Champion (12-2, 6-2)
I wasn't a big believer in the Oklahoma Sooners coming into the 2010 season. They were coming off of an 8-5 season and had lost the majority of starters off of their defense. Bob Stoops did a good job this year of getting the troops back and marching to a 12-2 season and a BCS Bowl victory. The two losses stick out a little because they were against Missouri and Texas A&M, two good teams but teams that barely cracked the Top 20 in the final AP poll while Oklahoma finished 6th. Oklahoma carries a lot of momentum into the 2011/2012 season and they look like a team that will be a sure fire pre-season Top 5 pick. They finished off their schedule this year by beating up Texas Tech and Baylor and then beating rivals Nebraska and Oklahoma State in a couple of close, tough games. We turned to the Oklahoma Sooners Blog Land Thieves to find out what they thought about the 2010 Oklahoma Sooners.
1. Oklahoma finished 12-2 and won a BCS Bowl Game. Do you feel the season was a success?
Yes, I think it was a successful season. At the beginning of the year, I predicted 11-1 and demanded a Big 12 Championship. Well, we went 10-2 in the regular season, with the loss to Missouri being a surprise. Texas' woeful season allowed the Sooners to win the Big 12 South anyway, and the Sooners benefitted from another three way tie. After the Mizzou game, I'd all but given up on the season, but the Sooners rebounded after the Aggie loss to run the table.
2. Offensive Coordinator Kevin Wilson has moved on to become a Head Coach at Indiana. Who will be taking his place and what do they bring to the table?
QB Coach Josh Heupel and WR Coach Jay Norvell have been promoted to co-offensive coordinators. I'm indifferent on Norvell. The only things I know about him are that he a) coached under Karl Dorrell and Bill Callahan; b) was at Iowa with Stoops; c) dropped the f-bomb at a ref and got a penalty during the season. Heupel is a former QB, led us to a national championship as a senior in 2000 and has demonstrated an amazing abiltiy to groom QBs (Thompson, Bradford, Jones progressed remarkably under his tutelage). Heupel has an uncanny feel for the game, which he demonstrated as a QB and demonstrated that ability again in the Fiesta Bowl with his game plan.
3. What were your favorite moments of 2010?
a) Jonathan Nelson chasing down a Cincy receiver from behind; b) Landry's 4th quarter during the OSU game; c) Tim Winchester's fumble recovery against Texas to seal the victory; d) the domination of Florida State; e) Travis Lewis' interception in the end zone against Nebraska.
4. Which players surprised you the most in 2010 with their performance?
Offensively, I'd have to say Cameron Kenney and Demarco Murray. Kenney came on strong at the end of the year and had several clutch catches in the OSU and Nebraska games. Demarco stayed healthy. While I wish he still had his quickness, he was a steady, versatile force throughout the year. Defensively, I'd say Jamell Fleming and Demontre Hurst as CBs and Tony Jefferson as another DB. They played very well for their first cracks at significant playing time.
5. Who are you most looking forward to watching in 2011?
RB Roy Finch; a healthy WR DeJuan Miller, Ryan Broyles for another year. I'm looking forward to seeing Ronnell Lewis continue to progress as a DE. I'm looking forward to Tom Wort learning to play quickly, but not in a hurry. I'm looking forward to anyeone being a force as a defensive tackle. If the Sooners can find someone to be a run stopper on the interior D line, it could be a special season.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Bowl Predictions Part 3 (12/31-1/1)
In case you missed the first and second rounds of bowl predictions just click on the links to catch up on what you missed. As of the printing of this blog we have had 14 bowl games and both Ross and I are 8-6.
Meineke Car Care (12/31 Noon on ESPN)
South Florida (7-5) vs. Clemson (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: SOUTH FLORIDA 24 CLEMSON 21
This is one that I am really struggling with. Both come in with pretty good defenses but under-performing offenses. I think this one with be decided by a key turnover or by who has the ball last. Both teams are exactly the same with turnover margin at a deficit of .25 per game. But USF seems to be getting better in terms of turnovers while Clemson has not won the turnover battle in a game since they beat Georgia Tech way back in late October.
Ross's Prediction: CLEMSON 27, SOUTH FLORIDA 14
Meineke Car Care (12/31 Noon on ESPN)
South Florida (7-5) vs. Clemson (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: SOUTH FLORIDA 24 CLEMSON 21
This is one that I am really struggling with. Both come in with pretty good defenses but under-performing offenses. I think this one with be decided by a key turnover or by who has the ball last. Both teams are exactly the same with turnover margin at a deficit of .25 per game. But USF seems to be getting better in terms of turnovers while Clemson has not won the turnover battle in a game since they beat Georgia Tech way back in late October.
Ross's Prediction: CLEMSON 27, SOUTH FLORIDA 14
Clemson has more talent, but South Florida probably has better coaching. Both of these teams kind of stink, but give me ACC stink over Big East stink any day of the week.
HYUNDAI SUN BOWL (12/31 2pm on CBS)
Notre Dame (7-5) vs. Miami (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: NOTRE DAME 28 MIAMI 21
Miami is one of the most talented teams in College Football. But will they be focused and ready to play? They are coming off of two consecutive defeats and have lost 3 of their last 5 that include a loss to Virginia. On the flip side Notre Dame is coming into the bowl on a 3 game winning streak that includes victories over 2 bowl teams and USC. I like how the Golden Domers are trending and while I could see Miami winning this game by 3 TDs on talent alone I am siding with Notre Dame.
Ross's Prediction: NOTRE DAME 24, MIAMI 20
This is a fun match-up, although it's also a reminder of the fact that these two storied programs are just a pale shadow of their late '80s heyday. The ND and Miami teams from that era would smoke these squads by 40+. Miami has better talent (Randy Shannon did manage to get some pretty solid talent to Miami, despite his other flaws), but Brian Kelly certainly gives the Irish a pretty big edge in the coaching department. As is so often the case, these bowls usually come down to who wants it more and ND has the definite edge there: they have something to prove, while Miami is a coach-less squad playing in a minor bowl in El Paso. Motivation trumps athletes this time.
Autozone Liberty Bowl (12/31 3:30 on ESPN)
Georgia (6-6) vs. UCF (10-3)
Kevin's Prediction: GEORGIA 41 UCF 24
Let's be honest with ourselves for a minute. Central Florida's 10-3 record is a product of their schedule. Their biggest wins are against SMU (7-6) and East Carolina (6-7). Whenever UCF has faced someone better this year they have lost (Southern Miss 31-21, Kansas State 17-13 and NC State 28-21). Georgia on the other hand has a 6-6 record because of who they have played (4 losses to Top 25 teams including 2 BCS schools and a school that played in the SEC Championship game) and some untimely errors. Central Florida can definitely make this competitive and I look for Jeffrey Godfrey to have a decent day but I think Georgia has something to prove. This will be A.J. Green's last game and I don't see anybody on the UCF sideline that can match-up with him. Georgia has won 5 of 7 with those losses being an OT loss to Florida and a loss to #1 Auburn. I think Georgia rolls much like they did in their bowl game last year (under similar circumstances) against Texas A&M)
Ross's Prediction: GEORGIA 34, CENTRAL FLORIDA 21
By my count, Georgia now has the longest active bowl game winning streak after Boise State ended Utah's nine-game winning streak earlier this bowl season. Georgia's won their last four bowl games; Mark Richt may be having some issues winning regular season games in recent years, but he's maintained his mastery of bowl games (he's 7-2 in bowl games at Georgia). Georgia was also playing much better at the end of the season, winning five of their last seven and putting up spirited efforts in their losses to Florida and Auburn. Central Florida isn't just a mid-major punching bag and they have a pretty stout defense (12th best scoring defense in the nation). But Georgia has too much talent and is too well-coached.
Chick-fil-A Bowl (12/31 7:30pm on ESPN)
South Carolina (9-4) vs. Florida State (9-4)
Kevin's Prediction: SOUTH CAROLINA 31 FSU 27
The Chick-fil-A Bowl is perennially one of the best bowl games. Despite blow outs in the last 2 games you can look back to 2007 (Auburn over Clemson in OT) and 2006 (Georgia over VT 31-24) as examples. Let's not kid ourselves everyone in the south loves an ACC vs SEC match-up and this one is pretty intriguing. I think Carolina is out to prove something after just getting absolutely embarrassed against Cam Newton and the Auburn Tigers. Alshon Jeffrey and Marcus Lattimore are just going to be too much for FSU on this day but I think it will be a good close game.
Ross's Prediction: FLORIDA ST 35, SOUTH CAROLINA 24
Again, the issue of motivation rears its ugly head here. South Carolina just made a trip to the ATL less than a month ago with dreams of an SEC Championship and a Sugar Bowl trip dancing in their heads -- only to get their heads served to them on a platter by Cam Newton. And now they're supposed to be excited about going back to Atlanta for a New Year's Eve bash with Florida State in a bowl named after tasty chicken sandwiches? Yeah, not seeing it -- especially when you factor in their no-show performances in their last two bowl games (a 31-10 beatdown to Iowa in the 2009 Outback Bowl and a 20-7 thumping to UConn in the 2010 Papajohns.com Bowl). Meanwhile, Florida State has a chance to end a solid season on a high note and Christian Ponder will probably want to put on a show for NFL scouts, too.
TicketCity Bowl (1/1 Noon on ESPNU)
Northwestern (7-5) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: TEXAS TECH 35 NORTHWESTERN 24
Raise your hand if you've never heard of this bowl. I'm guilty. Texas Tech just lost it's defense coordinator and now they have to try and stop Dan Persa? No thank you. Oh wait...Dan Persa is in a cast until spring. Hmmmm....Texas Tech it is. But I don't like it.
Ross's Prediction: TEXAS TECH 35, NORTHWESTERN 17
If Northwestern had all-everything QB Dan Persa, this game is at least a toss-up, if not a definite edge to Northwestern. But without the QB who was the heart and soul of their offense -- and the source of roughly 90% of its production -- it's hard to give them a fair shot here, even against a pretty mediocre Tech squad. The NW offense looked completely toothless in their last two games this year and the defense isn't strong enough to make up for that lack of production.
OUTBACK BOWL (1/1 1pm on ABC)
Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: FLORIDA 28 PENN STATE 17
There is just no way that I can pick against Urban Cryer and the Florida Gators in his last game. I think Florida gets geeked up for this game Penn State has not performed in big games this year (their losses are to Bama, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan State) with their most impressive victories coming against Michigan and Northwestern. Florida has lost 2 out of their last 3 but I think they win this one for Urban.
Ross's Prediction: PENN STATE 23, FLORIDA 21
If you believe the rumors about JoePa, this could be a farewell game for BOTH coaches; at the very least, it's definitely Urban Meyer's swan song to the Florida program that he turned into one of the best of the 2000s. Unfortunately, with all the turmoil that's surrounded that program lately and the fact that their offense was a complete non-entity for most of the season, it's hard to have much faith in them, even with some "win one for Urb" motivation going on. Penn State is consistently a very good bowl team and they spent the season getting better, especially on offense where a mid-season switch to Matt McGloin at QB broke them out of their slumber. The defense struggled at times, but should be pretty healthy here. I think they win on a close one with a late field goal.
Capital One Bowl (1/1 1pm on ESPN)
Alabama (9-3) vs. Michigan State (11-1)
Kevin's Prediction: ALABAMA 31 MICHIGAN STATE 17
In 2008 Nick Saban and his staff learned a lesson in the Sugar Bowl from Utah. I can't see Bama coming into this game unprepared. As great as a season that Michigan State had they really didn't beat anybody outside of Wisconsin (which is a great win but seems like it was before Wisconsin really turned the corner this year). As much as I hate to say it I can't go against Saban and his coaching staff or his talent in this one. Tide Rolls.
Ross's Prediction: ALABAMA 34, MICHIGAN STATE 17
Michigan State was a classic overachiever program this year -- they took advantage of some lucky breaks and mounted impressive comebacks (against Notre Dame, Northwestern, Purdue, for instance) -- but they also got blasted by Iowa and struggled against inferior competition pretty frequently (Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State) and had an advantageous schedule (no Ohio State). There's also the question of how excited they'll be to play in this game, considering they went 11-1 and got aced out of a BCS bowl appearance. On the other hand, motivation could be an issue for Alabama, too -- will they be excited to play in this game after suffering a stunning defeat to Auburn in their last game and playing in the national title game last year? Ultimately, I think Saban does get them motivated here -- and their massive talent advantage proves to be the difference.
Progressive Gator Bowl (1/1 1:30 pm on ESPN2)
Mississippi State (8-4) vs. Michigan (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: MISSISSIPPI STATE 31 MICHIGAN 24
There might not be a coach in all of College Football that I am more impressed with than Dan Mullen. Imagine what they could be doing right now if they won the Cam Newton $weepstakes (I kid!). Dan Mullen led his team to wins over both Florida and Georgia this year (even though they were both down that is impressive) and continued his dominance over the "team from the North" Ole Miss (well as dominant as you can be being 2-0 against a rival). Michigan has a chance in this one but I just can't pick them with their defense. I think Miss State grounds this one out.
Ross's Prediction: MISSISSIPPI STATE 38, MICHIGAN 35
Ross's Prediction: WISCONSIN 35, TCU 31
On one hand, Michigan has a healthy Denard Robinson and one of the nation's most fearsome offenses. On the other hand, they have one of the nation's least fearsome defenses and an embattled coach dealing with a lot of talk about his job status. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has a coach who's the toast of the town (Dan Mullen) and a solid defense. Their offense has been anemic at times, but the Michigan defense could be just what the doctor ordered for a weak offense. This one smells like a shootout (like, oh, pretty much all of Michigan's games this year), but I think Mississippi State has enough defense to get a key stop at the end of the game.
Rose Bowl (1/1 5pm on ESPN)
Wisconsin (11-1) vs. TCU (12-0)
Kevin's Prediction: WISCONSIN 31 TCU 23
Now this is one to watch. I like what TCU has done this year under Gary Patterson (and in the previous years for that matter) but Wisconsin is on a roll. TCU has not played a team the caliber or with the strength of Wisconsin this year. Both teams average 43 points per game but allow under 21 per game. I think Wisconsin will just be too much for the Horned Frogs. Welcome to Big Boy football TCU, are you up for the challenge?
Ross's Prediction: WISCONSIN 35, TCU 31
Really hard game to call. TCU has one of the nation's best defenses -- but they also haven't had to deal with an offense like Wisconsin's, either. Wisconsin started the year slowly, but by season's end they'd turned into an old-school juggernaut with a massive offensive line paving the way for three very good running backs, allowing them to just steamroll their opponents into dust. TCU has a great run defense, but they haven't faced a rushing offense like the Badgers. Fortunately, they also have a very good (and underrated) offense -- and you can score on the Badgers. I think this game turns into a bit of a shootout and Wisconsin's beastly ground game is good enough to put it over the top. Should be a hell of a game, though.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (1/1 8:30pm on ESPN)
Connecticut (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (11-2)
Kevin's Prediction: OKLAHOMA 37 UCONN 24
On paper this is one of the biggest mismatches of bowl season. UConn went 8-4 with losses to Michigan, Temple, Rutgers and Louisville. UConn's most impressive victory this year was an overtime victory over West Virginia (who just got rolled by NC State 23 to 7). Unless Oklahoma has a monumental letdown I can't see them losing this game. Oklahoma has had a couple of mis-haps this year (A&M and Missouri) but they have just beaten 4 straight bowl teams including must win games over Okie State and Nebraska to win their Conference Title.
Ross's Prediction: OKLAHOMA 38, UCONN 21
Is UConn the worst BCS team ever? Maybe not -- the 2007 Hawaii team and the 2004 Pittsburgh teams that made BCS bowls were pretty underwhelming outfits -- but not many BCS teams have gotten spanked by teams like Temple and Louisville in the same year, either. And that's even without factoring in the whole "just happy to be here" factor for a team making their first-ever trip to a big-time bowl game. Oklahoma's had their problems in BCS games over the last few years... but they really shouldn't struggle much here. They have a massive talent advantage almost everywhere on the field and Bob Stoops has ample experience in games like this.
Is UConn the worst BCS team ever? Maybe not -- the 2007 Hawaii team and the 2004 Pittsburgh teams that made BCS bowls were pretty underwhelming outfits -- but not many BCS teams have gotten spanked by teams like Temple and Louisville in the same year, either. And that's even without factoring in the whole "just happy to be here" factor for a team making their first-ever trip to a big-time bowl game. Oklahoma's had their problems in BCS games over the last few years... but they really shouldn't struggle much here. They have a massive talent advantage almost everywhere on the field and Bob Stoops has ample experience in games like this.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Conference Championship Game Predictions
SEC: Auburn (12-0) vs. South Carolina (9-3)
Kevin: OK, everybody who had Auburn vs South Carolina at the beginning of the year raise your hands. Seriously, the odds of this happening had to be very narrow at the beginning of the season. Florida and Georgia both under-performed this year and South Carolina beat both of them to take the SEC East Crown. Auburn had a much tougher road as they are in the same division as 4 other Top 25 teams but still finished the year unbeaten. All year I was waiting for Auburn to lose but as the year went on Auburn seemed to get stronger. They fell behind against Georgia and Alabama but showed a lot of mental toughness and came back to win both of those games. It's just hard to bet against Auburn right now. That being said, I will be rooting against them as I just can't root for Nick Unfairley after his repeated late hits to my redshirt freshman QB Aaron Murray.
Prediction: AUBURN 31 SOUTH CAROLINA 24
Ross: On one hand, you have an Auburn team that seems like a team of destiny after the way they came back from the dead against Alabama and pulled off an incredible comeback win. They also happen to have the best player in college football this year (Cam Newton), who's playing at an incredibly high level. And they have one of the best defensive players in college football, too, in Nick Fairley. On the other hand, you have a South Carolina team that seems to have flipped a switch in the last three weeks, turning in three straight dominant performances, including blowout wins over Florida (to clinch the SEC East) and Clemson (to win a rivalry game). Stephen Garcia's not turning the ball over, Marcus Lattimore is running like a man possessed, Alshon Jeffery is the best receiver no one talks about, and the defense is stoning people. Oh, and they did come awful close to knocking off Auburn when they played earlier this year, until Newton Hulked up in the fourth quarter and the Cocks helped out by turning the ball over four times. So... they could win, right? Yeah, they could, but only a fool would bet against Cam Newton at this point -- and I don't feel like being a fool.
Prediction: AUBURN 38, SOUTH CAROLINA 31
Big 12: Oklahoma (10-2) vs. Nebraska (10-2)
Kevin: This is a HUGE game for Oklahoma and the Big 12. Nobody in the Big 12 wants to see Nebraska win the Big 12 title in their last season in the conference. OU is riding a 3-game winning streak over Texas Tech, Baylor and rival Okie State. Nebraska comes into the game having lost to Texas A&M just before blowing out Colorado. I really don't have a feel for this one but I just think OU is going to tough it out.
Prediction: OKLAHOMA 27 NEBRASKA 24
Ross: How fitting that the last-ever Big 12 Championship Game features the two teams that defined the conference that birthed the Big 12 -- the Big 8. Oklahoma and Nebraska had one of the game's most legendary rivalries in the 70s and 80s and while it was unavoidably diminished when the Big 12 was formed and they stopped playing each other every year, it's still a pretty good thing -- especially when both teams are good, which is the case this year. Neither team is great (they each have two losses for a reason), but they've both been very impressive for stretches of the season. Oklahoma seems to be rounding into form at the end of the season, especially on offense (three straight efforts of 40+ points) and for all of Bob Stoops' failures in BCS bowls, he's been a killer in the Big 12 Championship Game (5-1). On the other hand, Nebraska has a far better defense than what Oklahoma has been playing. The key for them will be whether Taylor Martinez is healthy enough to be effective in this game -- Nebraska blew out Colorado without him, but they aren't going to get solid performances from the usually lousy Cody Green or two touchdown passes from a running back (Rex Burkhead) too often. Defense usually wins championships, but going against Stoops in a game like this is usually a losing proposition.
Prediction: OKLAHOMA 27, NEBRASKA 20
ACC: FSU (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (10-2)
Kevin: FSU showed some fire that I didn't know they had in them last week when they took Herban Meyer and Florida to the woodshed. That being said, Virginia Tech is on a 10-game winning streak. Who would have thought that after falling Boise State and then James Madison (yes, James Madison) that Virginia Tech would be undefeated in the ACC. I can't bet against the Hokies in this one.
Prediction: VIRGINIA TECH 34 FLORIDA STATE 21
Prediction: VIRGINIA TECH 28, FLORIDA STATE 24
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
The Final(?) Showdown
So it comes to this, does it?
The final showdown between two rivals, for the time being, and it is for all the Big 12 Marbles. It’s funny to think about in that context, but that is the reality of what we are facing on Saturday when Nebraska plays Oklahoma for a final time. I am not ruling out future meetings, but for all intents and purposes this should be treated as the last game of the rivalry. I am not going to break this down from a technical standpoint, but I am going to try and convey my emotions going into this game, and what I hope will happen.
On June 11th 2010 the Nebraska Cornhuskers were approved to make the jump to the Big 10 Conference and in all the madness that surrounded the move, the one thing that was never brought up was the end of two rivalries. I am not sure many of you can understand what it is like to know you have to make a new rival. It’s weird, I obviously have my intrapersonal rivalry with all my Ohio State supporting friends, I have a personal bitter rivalry with Michigan (1997 should still OUR National Championship), and the prospects of Nebraska/Iowa aka “FARMAGEDDON” The fact that remained was that we as Nebraska fans, lost our two biggest rivals in Colorado and Oklahoma. The Colorado rivalry was more prevalent since the two teams played every year, but to me, Oklahoma would always be the rivalry.
So what about the final game? What about the last game of a rivalry for the time being? I obviously hope Nebraska wins, but more than anything I want to beat our rival one more time on the (second) biggest stage of them all. I am not going to go overboard and want an absolute drubbing, but I do want to win, I want to win this game more than I wanted to win the Texas game, and that was the most hyped I have ever been for a Nebraska game. I don’t think many of you understand how great it would be to win this game; I am aware that many people have national titles, and conference titles, but you always come back the next year to defend and to repeat. This time there is no coming back; there is no repeating as champion, there is just THIS GAME. That’s it. I can’t think of anything that will be sweeter than having to watch Dan Beebe hand the Big 12 Title over to the Cornhuskers, and him knowing that, for the time being, we are the LAST Big 12 Championship Game winners. He already doesn’t want to give the Big 12 North Trophy over to the Huskers, and that’s fine, but he will HAVE to hand over the Big 12 Championship Trophy to Nebraska, and that will be even better. I wouldn’t even care if they won the Fiesta Bowl so long as I get to see that scene in Dallas on Saturday Night, and to take out your two main rivals in back to back weeks? That will be even sweeter. There will be none of me buying Tostitos, or scheduling out songs to play in the event of a win. There will only be a win...
...then we will play the songs, one last time!
Nebraska 20 – Oklahoma 17.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Five Questions: Big 12 Edition
What is the biggest surprise in the Big 12 so far?
Alex: By far it is Texas's fall. How many teams go from losing the national championship game to possibly being last in the conference?
J Martin: It has to be Texas' fall. I never bought into the Garrett Gilbert craze, never thought he was going to step in and be an instant superstar after he made a few good throws against Alabama in the BCS title game. I never bought into this idea that Texas was suddenly going to become a pro-style, power running team and not miss a beat on offense despite not having the personnel to do it. And yet I also never thought we'd be here in the 2nd week of November wondering if Texas was even going to make a bowl. That's shocking. With the talent and the coaches that the Longhorns have, they should never, ever, lose 5 games in a year. But here they are, sitting at 4-5, staring down the barrel of two more.
Kevin: Texas is a huge surprise but I think Okie State is just as surprising. In our pre-season preview we picked Okie State DOA and chose them to come in a tie for 5th with Baylor. Phil Steele picked them dead last in the Big 12 South calling it a rebuilding year. ESPN said they would finish in 5th and 7-5.
Ross: The rise of Baylor, the fall of Texas, and the continued (and even greater) success of Oklahoma State have all been pretty remarkable surprises, but I'd have to say the freefall of Texas been the biggest stunner. In hindsight, it wasn't totally crazy to see Baylor and Oklahoma State being good since they each returned an offensive star (RB Kendall Hunter for Okie State, QB Robert Griffin for Baylor), although it would have been nuts to project this much success for them. But Texas slumming it at 4-5 and in real danger of not even making a bowl? That's absurd to even contemplate -- especially after seeing them get so thoroughly and comprehensively beaten by UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State. None of those losses were fluky in the slightest -- Texas just got completely outplayed. For that to happen with a team with such obvious talent (unless the recruiting services were wildly inaccurate) is mind blowing. Barring an unlikely turnaround, this is going to go down as one of the most sudden, surprising, and inexplicable collapses of a major program in recent history.
Who is the Big 12 Player of the Year so far?
Alex: Taylor Martinez is your PotY. Nebraska would be dead in the water amongst Colorado and Kansas had it not been for his surprise appearance at QB this season.
J Martin: Can I give it to 2 guys if they're on the same team? Statistically, it's Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State. He's in the top 2 in receptions per game, receiving yards per game, and scoring. The latter of which he's done despite missing a game due to suspension. He makes big plays and he makes them often. However, I'd also have to give credit to his quarterback Brandon Weeden. Someone has to get Blackmon the ball, right? I think Weeden's emergence as a quality spread quarterback has been the biggest factor in OSU's rise from being declared DOA in most preseason publications to a Top 25 team and possible conference champion.
Kevin: This is a toss up between Kendall Hunter (1240 yds, 6.1 ypc, 14 TD) and his QB Brandon Wheedon (leds the Big 12 in passing yds, yds/attempt, TD, QB rating, etc).
Ross: Baylor QB Robert Griffin III. Without him, Baylor's a 2-3 win team rather than being a legitimate conference title contender. He's leading the conference in total yards (416 yards rushing, 2859 yards passing), has accounted for 27 touchdowns, and he's the unquestioned leader of that team. He's been incredible. Oklahoma State has the league leaders in passing (Brandon Weeden), rushing (Kendall Hunter), and receiving (Justin Blackmon), but their combined excellence works against identifying one of them as the singular best player in the league.
What is the most interesting game left on the Big 12 schedule?
J Martin: There are far too many interesting games left on the Big 12 schedule. Can I cheat and give two answers again? As of today, it's Oklahoma State vs. Texas. That's a huge swing game for Texas' bowl hopes. If they win, they're in. They'll easily top FAU the next week. But if they lose...the Texas vs. Texas A&M showdown on Thanksgiving gets bigger than it's been in years, with the Aggies getting the chance to send Texas home for the holidays. There's nothing more interesting than watching a national power fall on it's face (as I have learned the hard way).
Kevin: I've got Oklahoma/Oklahoma State because this is the game that the Big 12 South should come down to. Plus, it's in Stillwater which should make this very very interesting.
Ross: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. Not only is it the annual "Bedlam" game and a heated rivalry between two top programs that's seen a few upsets in recent years, but it's likely to be the game that decides the Big 12 South race this year. The stakes should be very high for this game, which ought to make it awfully intense. There's also a lot of star power in this game, since you have arguably the Big 12's two best quarterbacks (Weeden and Landry Jones), two best running backs (Hunter and DeMarco Murray), and two best wide receivers (Blackmon and Ryan Broyles). This game has all the makings of a wild shootout between two high-powered, star-laden offenses, which should make for a pretty exciting affair.
Who wins the Big 12 South?
J Martin: I like Oklahoma State. Baylor is having a nice year, but it's hard to take them seriously as a legit title contender. Same with Texas A&M. And after the Sooners' loss to A&M, it's perfectly conceivable that they could slip up against Baylor or Texas Tech and take themselves out of the running before they get to Okie State. Meanwhile, unless Texas can muster another Nebraska-caliber effort this weekend, the Cowboys are playing a one-game season from this point forward. The odds are in their favor.
Kevin: Right now I'm leaning towards Okie State because they have the home-field advantage in the final game. Ask me again next week and the answer could be very different.
Ross: I think Oklahoma State edges Oklahoma on the basis of an easier schedule and home-field advantage in their season-ending clash. Texas is reeling and Kansas is dreadful, which should enable Okie State to get to 6-1. Oklahoma should be able to handle Texas Tech at home, but they've struggled on the road and Baylor will be very tricky. Assuming they get by that game, a season-ending road game against Oklahoma State looks pretty daunting, too. Baylor and Texas A&M are out of the running since Oklahoma State already has head-to-head wins over them and they'd need Okie State to drop TWO more games in their final three -- which doesn't seem likely.
Has Tommy Tuberville's debut season at Texas Tech been a success?
Alex: I say yes as it is hard to gage a coaches success rate over the first season. Texas Tech made a huge mistake when they fired (and not just reprimand) Leech. Tubbs needs his own players for his system and do remember he was on the way out of Auburn before exploding with 2 and 1/2 great seasons. He is holding his own, give him three more years before the axe comes crashing down at a school without any expectations.
J Martin: I think he's mostly succeeded at maintaining the status quo under Mike Leach (win 7-9 games consistently) while avoiding the meltdown that a lot of Tech fans feared when considering Tub's last foray into the spread offense. That was probably the best case scenario for this season.
Kevin: I wouldn't call it a "success" but it's not a failure. Tech should go 2-1 in their last 3 which would put them at 7-5. If he continually posts 7-5 then that's not what Tech wants but if he can build on this season then I think we can look back on it as a success.
Ross: If he can string together three more wins and close out at 8-4, it would be a pretty solid season. Anything less than that would be pretty disappointing. The wins over Baylor and Missouri are nice, but the losses are embarrassing, especially the games against Texas (in light of what they've become) and Iowa State (Tech collapsed in ugly fashion against them). Plus, this was a very vulnerable Big 12 and a favorable schedule for them -- no Nebraska, the worst Texas team in well over a decade, and an Oklahoma team that's good but not great -- so only mustering a 7-5 schedule with that would be pretty lackluster. 8-4 still wouldn't be great, but it would at least be palatable. Still, it's hard to look at this season and think that Mike Leach couldn't have done more -- and possibly led Texas Tech on the breakthrough season that Oklahoma State instead seems to be enjoying.
Alex: By far it is Texas's fall. How many teams go from losing the national championship game to possibly being last in the conference?
J Martin: It has to be Texas' fall. I never bought into the Garrett Gilbert craze, never thought he was going to step in and be an instant superstar after he made a few good throws against Alabama in the BCS title game. I never bought into this idea that Texas was suddenly going to become a pro-style, power running team and not miss a beat on offense despite not having the personnel to do it. And yet I also never thought we'd be here in the 2nd week of November wondering if Texas was even going to make a bowl. That's shocking. With the talent and the coaches that the Longhorns have, they should never, ever, lose 5 games in a year. But here they are, sitting at 4-5, staring down the barrel of two more.
Kevin: Texas is a huge surprise but I think Okie State is just as surprising. In our pre-season preview we picked Okie State DOA and chose them to come in a tie for 5th with Baylor. Phil Steele picked them dead last in the Big 12 South calling it a rebuilding year. ESPN said they would finish in 5th and 7-5.
Ross: The rise of Baylor, the fall of Texas, and the continued (and even greater) success of Oklahoma State have all been pretty remarkable surprises, but I'd have to say the freefall of Texas been the biggest stunner. In hindsight, it wasn't totally crazy to see Baylor and Oklahoma State being good since they each returned an offensive star (RB Kendall Hunter for Okie State, QB Robert Griffin for Baylor), although it would have been nuts to project this much success for them. But Texas slumming it at 4-5 and in real danger of not even making a bowl? That's absurd to even contemplate -- especially after seeing them get so thoroughly and comprehensively beaten by UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State. None of those losses were fluky in the slightest -- Texas just got completely outplayed. For that to happen with a team with such obvious talent (unless the recruiting services were wildly inaccurate) is mind blowing. Barring an unlikely turnaround, this is going to go down as one of the most sudden, surprising, and inexplicable collapses of a major program in recent history.
Who is the Big 12 Player of the Year so far?
Alex: Taylor Martinez is your PotY. Nebraska would be dead in the water amongst Colorado and Kansas had it not been for his surprise appearance at QB this season.
J Martin: Can I give it to 2 guys if they're on the same team? Statistically, it's Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State. He's in the top 2 in receptions per game, receiving yards per game, and scoring. The latter of which he's done despite missing a game due to suspension. He makes big plays and he makes them often. However, I'd also have to give credit to his quarterback Brandon Weeden. Someone has to get Blackmon the ball, right? I think Weeden's emergence as a quality spread quarterback has been the biggest factor in OSU's rise from being declared DOA in most preseason publications to a Top 25 team and possible conference champion.
Kevin: This is a toss up between Kendall Hunter (1240 yds, 6.1 ypc, 14 TD) and his QB Brandon Wheedon (leds the Big 12 in passing yds, yds/attempt, TD, QB rating, etc).
Ross: Baylor QB Robert Griffin III. Without him, Baylor's a 2-3 win team rather than being a legitimate conference title contender. He's leading the conference in total yards (416 yards rushing, 2859 yards passing), has accounted for 27 touchdowns, and he's the unquestioned leader of that team. He's been incredible. Oklahoma State has the league leaders in passing (Brandon Weeden), rushing (Kendall Hunter), and receiving (Justin Blackmon), but their combined excellence works against identifying one of them as the singular best player in the league.
What is the most interesting game left on the Big 12 schedule?
J Martin: There are far too many interesting games left on the Big 12 schedule. Can I cheat and give two answers again? As of today, it's Oklahoma State vs. Texas. That's a huge swing game for Texas' bowl hopes. If they win, they're in. They'll easily top FAU the next week. But if they lose...the Texas vs. Texas A&M showdown on Thanksgiving gets bigger than it's been in years, with the Aggies getting the chance to send Texas home for the holidays. There's nothing more interesting than watching a national power fall on it's face (as I have learned the hard way).
Kevin: I've got Oklahoma/Oklahoma State because this is the game that the Big 12 South should come down to. Plus, it's in Stillwater which should make this very very interesting.
Ross: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. Not only is it the annual "Bedlam" game and a heated rivalry between two top programs that's seen a few upsets in recent years, but it's likely to be the game that decides the Big 12 South race this year. The stakes should be very high for this game, which ought to make it awfully intense. There's also a lot of star power in this game, since you have arguably the Big 12's two best quarterbacks (Weeden and Landry Jones), two best running backs (Hunter and DeMarco Murray), and two best wide receivers (Blackmon and Ryan Broyles). This game has all the makings of a wild shootout between two high-powered, star-laden offenses, which should make for a pretty exciting affair.
Who wins the Big 12 South?
J Martin: I like Oklahoma State. Baylor is having a nice year, but it's hard to take them seriously as a legit title contender. Same with Texas A&M. And after the Sooners' loss to A&M, it's perfectly conceivable that they could slip up against Baylor or Texas Tech and take themselves out of the running before they get to Okie State. Meanwhile, unless Texas can muster another Nebraska-caliber effort this weekend, the Cowboys are playing a one-game season from this point forward. The odds are in their favor.
Kevin: Right now I'm leaning towards Okie State because they have the home-field advantage in the final game. Ask me again next week and the answer could be very different.
Ross: I think Oklahoma State edges Oklahoma on the basis of an easier schedule and home-field advantage in their season-ending clash. Texas is reeling and Kansas is dreadful, which should enable Okie State to get to 6-1. Oklahoma should be able to handle Texas Tech at home, but they've struggled on the road and Baylor will be very tricky. Assuming they get by that game, a season-ending road game against Oklahoma State looks pretty daunting, too. Baylor and Texas A&M are out of the running since Oklahoma State already has head-to-head wins over them and they'd need Okie State to drop TWO more games in their final three -- which doesn't seem likely.
Has Tommy Tuberville's debut season at Texas Tech been a success?
Alex: I say yes as it is hard to gage a coaches success rate over the first season. Texas Tech made a huge mistake when they fired (and not just reprimand) Leech. Tubbs needs his own players for his system and do remember he was on the way out of Auburn before exploding with 2 and 1/2 great seasons. He is holding his own, give him three more years before the axe comes crashing down at a school without any expectations.
J Martin: I think he's mostly succeeded at maintaining the status quo under Mike Leach (win 7-9 games consistently) while avoiding the meltdown that a lot of Tech fans feared when considering Tub's last foray into the spread offense. That was probably the best case scenario for this season.
Kevin: I wouldn't call it a "success" but it's not a failure. Tech should go 2-1 in their last 3 which would put them at 7-5. If he continually posts 7-5 then that's not what Tech wants but if he can build on this season then I think we can look back on it as a success.
Ross: If he can string together three more wins and close out at 8-4, it would be a pretty solid season. Anything less than that would be pretty disappointing. The wins over Baylor and Missouri are nice, but the losses are embarrassing, especially the games against Texas (in light of what they've become) and Iowa State (Tech collapsed in ugly fashion against them). Plus, this was a very vulnerable Big 12 and a favorable schedule for them -- no Nebraska, the worst Texas team in well over a decade, and an Oklahoma team that's good but not great -- so only mustering a 7-5 schedule with that would be pretty lackluster. 8-4 still wouldn't be great, but it would at least be palatable. Still, it's hard to look at this season and think that Mike Leach couldn't have done more -- and possibly led Texas Tech on the breakthrough season that Oklahoma State instead seems to be enjoying.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 14-16
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
TWO WEEKS AGO: 4-2
OVERALL 24-12
We took a break last week, but we're back and ready to go this week.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23#6 LSU (7-0, 4-0) AT #4 AUBURN (7-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Another week, another Milacle? Neutral observers (and fans of chaos and random insanity) can only hope so (although Auburn fans probably disagree, as do LSU fans with weak hearts). LSU's improbable undefeated run continues as they face their stiffest test yet -- a road game against top-5 Auburn, better known as The Cam Newton Show, starring Cam Newton, with special guest star Cam Newton. All of which is to say: Cam Newton is really damn good, as evidenced by the fact that through seven game, he's thrown for 1278 yards and 13/5 TD/INT on 80/122 passing and galloped for 860 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. He's a superfreak. And while he hasn't faced any elite defenses yet, he did a pretty good job of carving up (16/21, 158 yards, 2/0 TD/INT, 176 yards rushing, 3 TD) a respectable South Carolina outfit. You have to figure that he's gonna get his against LSU; the real question is what LSU can do to answer him. The Auburn pass defense isn't so hot (see: last week's Arkansas game), but LSU isn't terribly well-equipped to exploit that (outside of stud WR Terrence Tolliver). The unstoppable force that is Cam Newton meets the immovable object that is the Year of the Milacle; call me crazy, but I'm siding with the Caminator in this one.
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, LSU 28
#13 WISCONSIN (6-1, 2-1) AT #15 IOWA (5-1, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)Thanks to the impending Big Ten divisional alignments, this series, which has been one of the most competitive in major college football (Iowa leads 42-41-2), will be going by the wayside to an extent. They'll still play, but not every year and possibly no more than four times in a ten year span. As an Iowa fan, that makes me a little sad, since the Wisconsin games have usually been close, exciting games, although getting an annual game with Nebraska is a pretty solid trade-off, too. Not that this particular game needed any of that "break in the rivalry" juice to make it any bigger than it is, because it's pretty damn big to begin with. Wisconsin restored their Big Ten contender credentials with an impressive 31-18 ass-kicking of then-#1 Ohio State last week, while Iowa went on the road to knock off an explosive Michigan team. Iowa remains one of only three Big Ten teams that's still undefeated (along with Purdue and Michigan State), and they control their own destiny for the league title (assuming someone knocks off Purdue, which seems like a safe bet). Their next three home games are against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State; it's not really hyperbole to argue that the road to the Big Ten crown goes through Iowa City over this next month.
Iowa's played well since their disappointing loss to Arizona last month, but Wisconsin will pose a far different challenge than an inexperienced (and injury-riddled) Penn State team or an electric (but not very physically imposing) Michigan team; Wisconsin is all brawn and beef and very little subtlety. Fortunately, that's precisely the sort of team Iowa has long had success against. Throw in the letdown factor that Wisconsin will inevitably have to battle (see: South Carolina a week ago) and you can see why this will be a very difficult game for them. The key will likely come down to how well they can run the ball on Iowa's defense; if their massive OL can dominate Iowa's talented DL and open up holes for John Clay and James White, it could be a long day for Iowa. On the other hand, if Iowa can keep the Wisco running game mostly in check and force Scott Tolzien to beat them through the air, they should be in very good shape. On offense, Iowa could have trouble establishing a run game with Adam Robinson, but if the OL can provide Ricky Stanzi some decent pass protection (something they've been very good at all year, aside from the end of the Arizona game), he should be able to hit some big plays to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt through the air. I think the Iowa DL makes some big plays and Stanzi has another good day.
THE PICK: IOWA 24, WISCONSIN 14
#16 NEBRASKA (5-1, 1-1) AT #14 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)And now we come to perhaps the biggest "Prove Yourselves" game of the day. Nebraska has to prove that their 5-0 start wasn't a mirage built against dramatically inferior competition and that they can rebound from a gutting loss to Texas in a game that they'd had circled for months. Oklahoma State has to prove that their own 6-0 start isn't just the product of a really favorable schedule and that they can actually beat a good team. Oklahoma State was widely picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South and for fairly understandable reasons: they lost a ton of talent, including multi-year starter Zac Robinson at QB and all-everything WR Dez Bryant. But they returned RB Kendall Hunter (who battled multiple injuries last year on his way to a somewhat mediocre campaign) and they've slotted in QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon to replace Robinson and Bryant and barely skipped a beat. Blackmon, in particular, has been a revelation -- he's leading the NCAA in receiving yards (955) and touchdowns (12) and, yes, he's put up those numbers in just six games. On the other hand, Nebraska will be by far the nastiest defense Okie State has faced this year and they've absolutely stifled passing games all season. The question for Nebraska is how well their own offense can move the ball and score points; Texas completely shut them down and extinguished Taylor Martinez's Heisman buzz. But the Okie State defense is not quite the same thing as a Texas defense coached by Will Muschamp that has two weeks to prepare for the Martinez buzzsaw. When in doubt, side with the elite defense.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 20
NORTH CAROLINA (4-2, 2-1) AT MIAMI (4-2, 2-1) (ESPN2, 6:30pm EST)Before the season, there was some speculation that the ACC Coastal was going to emerge as the toughest division in college football. It had four ranked teams (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami), loads of talent, and high expectations. Midway through the season, we now know that was a lie; the SEC West is unquestionably the top division. But while the ACC Coastal has endured some pratfalls along the way (UNC's ongoing scandals, Virgina Tech's loss to James Madison, Georgia Tech's loss to Kansas, Miami's homefield disemboweling at the hands of Florida State), they've also more or less righted the ship and emerged as solid teams; they're all sitting at 4-2 or better and getting ready for the brutal round robin of games they're going to face against one another over the next month. Despite dealing with massive suspension-induced losses from the ongoing scandals that have engulfed their program, North Carolina has been looking pretty solid after their 0-2 start. Miami has looked unable to compete against foes with talent on par with their own; they lost to Ohio State in a game that was only close because of Ohio State's miserable special teams and got blown off their own field by Florida State. Their four wins have come against Florida A&M, a bad Pitt team, a bad Duke team, and a so-so Clemson team. Suffice to say, I don't really trust them.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA 24, MIAMI 17
#1 OKLAHOMA (6-0, 2-0) AT #11 MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)Oklahoma moved to the top of the initial BCS standings on the back of a 6-0 schedule against a slate of solid opponents (outside of their loss to the Sooners, Oklahoma's opponents are 23-10). The results haven't always been pretty (see: single-digit wins over Utah State, Cincinnati, and Air Force), but wins are the thing and Oklahoma's got 'em so far. Meanwhile, Missouri has quietly gone about its business and also sits at 6-0 and hosting one of the biggest games in their program's history (even with their recent success). Missouri's resume lacks any marquee wins (their best win is... San Diego State? Texas A&M? Illinois?), but they've beaten a collection of teams that has emerged as if not quite "good," at least "perfectly decent." That said, Oklahoma is a whole different beast than any of the teams they've played, especially since they seem to be clicking now. Earlier in the season, they might have screwed around with a not-totally-awful Iowa State team; instead, they obliterated them 52-0, exactly the way an elite team should. That's bad news for Missouri. Strangely, Missouri's success this season has been built on the back of a surprisingly stout defense, rather than the shoot 'em up affairs that constituted their success a few years ago. Can they use that and some homefield mojo to slow down Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and the rest of the Sooner offense? That's tough. The history of the last decade is that Bob Stoops wins big games in the league (it's just those pesky BCS bowl games that give him issues, plus Texas the last few years) and Gary Pinkel rarely does. It's hard to bet against that.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 34, MISSOURI 24
AIR FORCE (5-2, 3-1) AT #5 TCU (7-0, 3-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS College Sports)It's been a while since we've checked in with the non-BCS leagues and this is unquestionably the game of the day from the mid-major ranks. It would have been a match-up of top 25 teams if Air Force hadn't stubbed their toe last week at San Diego State, but as it is, it's still the first quasi-test TCU has faced since the season opener against Oregon State (or Baylor five weeks ago, if you think the Bears are legit). Since their splashy opening week win over Oregon State, TCU has mostly been minding their own business and beating the piss out of teams, especially since they opened up conference play a month ago -- they're 3-0 in Mountain West play and they've outscored their foes by an aggregate score of 103-3 (BYU got a pity FG on them last week). On the other hand, Colorado State, BYU, and Wyoming just aren't any good this year, either. Air Force isn't a great team, but they've emerged as a solid team this year; until last week's slip-up against SDSU, they'd beaten everyone in their path except Oklahoma (who they lost to just 27-24). They also pose a unique challenge for the TCU defense since they run the triple-option. Still, TCU seems too good on both sides of the ball to trip up at hoem against Air Force; this one might be close for a half or so, but TCU should pull away.
THE PICK: TCU 31, AIR FORCE 13
TWO WEEKS AGO: 4-2
OVERALL 24-12
We took a break last week, but we're back and ready to go this week.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23#6 LSU (7-0, 4-0) AT #4 AUBURN (7-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)Another week, another Milacle? Neutral observers (and fans of chaos and random insanity) can only hope so (although Auburn fans probably disagree, as do LSU fans with weak hearts). LSU's improbable undefeated run continues as they face their stiffest test yet -- a road game against top-5 Auburn, better known as The Cam Newton Show, starring Cam Newton, with special guest star Cam Newton. All of which is to say: Cam Newton is really damn good, as evidenced by the fact that through seven game, he's thrown for 1278 yards and 13/5 TD/INT on 80/122 passing and galloped for 860 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. He's a superfreak. And while he hasn't faced any elite defenses yet, he did a pretty good job of carving up (16/21, 158 yards, 2/0 TD/INT, 176 yards rushing, 3 TD) a respectable South Carolina outfit. You have to figure that he's gonna get his against LSU; the real question is what LSU can do to answer him. The Auburn pass defense isn't so hot (see: last week's Arkansas game), but LSU isn't terribly well-equipped to exploit that (outside of stud WR Terrence Tolliver). The unstoppable force that is Cam Newton meets the immovable object that is the Year of the Milacle; call me crazy, but I'm siding with the Caminator in this one.
THE PICK: AUBURN 34, LSU 28
#13 WISCONSIN (6-1, 2-1) AT #15 IOWA (5-1, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)Thanks to the impending Big Ten divisional alignments, this series, which has been one of the most competitive in major college football (Iowa leads 42-41-2), will be going by the wayside to an extent. They'll still play, but not every year and possibly no more than four times in a ten year span. As an Iowa fan, that makes me a little sad, since the Wisconsin games have usually been close, exciting games, although getting an annual game with Nebraska is a pretty solid trade-off, too. Not that this particular game needed any of that "break in the rivalry" juice to make it any bigger than it is, because it's pretty damn big to begin with. Wisconsin restored their Big Ten contender credentials with an impressive 31-18 ass-kicking of then-#1 Ohio State last week, while Iowa went on the road to knock off an explosive Michigan team. Iowa remains one of only three Big Ten teams that's still undefeated (along with Purdue and Michigan State), and they control their own destiny for the league title (assuming someone knocks off Purdue, which seems like a safe bet). Their next three home games are against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State; it's not really hyperbole to argue that the road to the Big Ten crown goes through Iowa City over this next month.
Iowa's played well since their disappointing loss to Arizona last month, but Wisconsin will pose a far different challenge than an inexperienced (and injury-riddled) Penn State team or an electric (but not very physically imposing) Michigan team; Wisconsin is all brawn and beef and very little subtlety. Fortunately, that's precisely the sort of team Iowa has long had success against. Throw in the letdown factor that Wisconsin will inevitably have to battle (see: South Carolina a week ago) and you can see why this will be a very difficult game for them. The key will likely come down to how well they can run the ball on Iowa's defense; if their massive OL can dominate Iowa's talented DL and open up holes for John Clay and James White, it could be a long day for Iowa. On the other hand, if Iowa can keep the Wisco running game mostly in check and force Scott Tolzien to beat them through the air, they should be in very good shape. On offense, Iowa could have trouble establishing a run game with Adam Robinson, but if the OL can provide Ricky Stanzi some decent pass protection (something they've been very good at all year, aside from the end of the Arizona game), he should be able to hit some big plays to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt through the air. I think the Iowa DL makes some big plays and Stanzi has another good day.
THE PICK: IOWA 24, WISCONSIN 14
#16 NEBRASKA (5-1, 1-1) AT #14 OKLAHOMA STATE (6-0, 2-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)And now we come to perhaps the biggest "Prove Yourselves" game of the day. Nebraska has to prove that their 5-0 start wasn't a mirage built against dramatically inferior competition and that they can rebound from a gutting loss to Texas in a game that they'd had circled for months. Oklahoma State has to prove that their own 6-0 start isn't just the product of a really favorable schedule and that they can actually beat a good team. Oklahoma State was widely picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South and for fairly understandable reasons: they lost a ton of talent, including multi-year starter Zac Robinson at QB and all-everything WR Dez Bryant. But they returned RB Kendall Hunter (who battled multiple injuries last year on his way to a somewhat mediocre campaign) and they've slotted in QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon to replace Robinson and Bryant and barely skipped a beat. Blackmon, in particular, has been a revelation -- he's leading the NCAA in receiving yards (955) and touchdowns (12) and, yes, he's put up those numbers in just six games. On the other hand, Nebraska will be by far the nastiest defense Okie State has faced this year and they've absolutely stifled passing games all season. The question for Nebraska is how well their own offense can move the ball and score points; Texas completely shut them down and extinguished Taylor Martinez's Heisman buzz. But the Okie State defense is not quite the same thing as a Texas defense coached by Will Muschamp that has two weeks to prepare for the Martinez buzzsaw. When in doubt, side with the elite defense.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 20
NORTH CAROLINA (4-2, 2-1) AT MIAMI (4-2, 2-1) (ESPN2, 6:30pm EST)Before the season, there was some speculation that the ACC Coastal was going to emerge as the toughest division in college football. It had four ranked teams (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami), loads of talent, and high expectations. Midway through the season, we now know that was a lie; the SEC West is unquestionably the top division. But while the ACC Coastal has endured some pratfalls along the way (UNC's ongoing scandals, Virgina Tech's loss to James Madison, Georgia Tech's loss to Kansas, Miami's homefield disemboweling at the hands of Florida State), they've also more or less righted the ship and emerged as solid teams; they're all sitting at 4-2 or better and getting ready for the brutal round robin of games they're going to face against one another over the next month. Despite dealing with massive suspension-induced losses from the ongoing scandals that have engulfed their program, North Carolina has been looking pretty solid after their 0-2 start. Miami has looked unable to compete against foes with talent on par with their own; they lost to Ohio State in a game that was only close because of Ohio State's miserable special teams and got blown off their own field by Florida State. Their four wins have come against Florida A&M, a bad Pitt team, a bad Duke team, and a so-so Clemson team. Suffice to say, I don't really trust them.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA 24, MIAMI 17
#1 OKLAHOMA (6-0, 2-0) AT #11 MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)Oklahoma moved to the top of the initial BCS standings on the back of a 6-0 schedule against a slate of solid opponents (outside of their loss to the Sooners, Oklahoma's opponents are 23-10). The results haven't always been pretty (see: single-digit wins over Utah State, Cincinnati, and Air Force), but wins are the thing and Oklahoma's got 'em so far. Meanwhile, Missouri has quietly gone about its business and also sits at 6-0 and hosting one of the biggest games in their program's history (even with their recent success). Missouri's resume lacks any marquee wins (their best win is... San Diego State? Texas A&M? Illinois?), but they've beaten a collection of teams that has emerged as if not quite "good," at least "perfectly decent." That said, Oklahoma is a whole different beast than any of the teams they've played, especially since they seem to be clicking now. Earlier in the season, they might have screwed around with a not-totally-awful Iowa State team; instead, they obliterated them 52-0, exactly the way an elite team should. That's bad news for Missouri. Strangely, Missouri's success this season has been built on the back of a surprisingly stout defense, rather than the shoot 'em up affairs that constituted their success a few years ago. Can they use that and some homefield mojo to slow down Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and the rest of the Sooner offense? That's tough. The history of the last decade is that Bob Stoops wins big games in the league (it's just those pesky BCS bowl games that give him issues, plus Texas the last few years) and Gary Pinkel rarely does. It's hard to bet against that.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 34, MISSOURI 24
AIR FORCE (5-2, 3-1) AT #5 TCU (7-0, 3-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS College Sports)It's been a while since we've checked in with the non-BCS leagues and this is unquestionably the game of the day from the mid-major ranks. It would have been a match-up of top 25 teams if Air Force hadn't stubbed their toe last week at San Diego State, but as it is, it's still the first quasi-test TCU has faced since the season opener against Oregon State (or Baylor five weeks ago, if you think the Bears are legit). Since their splashy opening week win over Oregon State, TCU has mostly been minding their own business and beating the piss out of teams, especially since they opened up conference play a month ago -- they're 3-0 in Mountain West play and they've outscored their foes by an aggregate score of 103-3 (BYU got a pity FG on them last week). On the other hand, Colorado State, BYU, and Wyoming just aren't any good this year, either. Air Force isn't a great team, but they've emerged as a solid team this year; until last week's slip-up against SDSU, they'd beaten everyone in their path except Oklahoma (who they lost to just 27-24). They also pose a unique challenge for the TCU defense since they run the triple-option. Still, TCU seems too good on both sides of the ball to trip up at hoem against Air Force; this one might be close for a half or so, but TCU should pull away.
THE PICK: TCU 31, AIR FORCE 13
Friday, October 1, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 2
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 16-8
#21 Texas (3-1) vs. #8 Oklahoma (4-0) (@ Dallas, TX) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
For the second-straight year, one of these teams enters the game with a loss; a year ago it was an injury-ravaged Oklahoma team limping into Dallas with injuries to Jermaine Gresham, Sam Bradford (who returned for that game only to get reinjured), and a host of other players, as well as a pair of losses to BYU and Miami. This year, Texas can't point to any injuries as the source of their malaise, but after stumbling through less-than-impressive wins over the likes of Rice and Wyoming, the Longhorns finally spit the bit in a home meltdown to UCLA a week ago. Frailties both old (their disjointed offense and non-existent running game) and new (a surprisingly porous run defense) were exposed by the Bruins -- and the Sooners will no doubt have been taking notes. Then again, they haven't exactly been running a train on their opposition thus far, either, they're 4-0 but that's included some skin-of-their-teeth wins over Air Force, Cincinnati, and (somehow) Utah State... as well as an incongruous massacre of Florida State sandwiched in-between those games. This game figures to pit strength against strength (Oklahoma's oft-explosive offense against Texas' typically immovable defense) and weakness against weakness (Oklahoma's porous defense against Texas' terminally inconsistent offense). One of those battles will likely cancel out, so the team that can win the other battle (whichever it happens to be) should come out on top. Texas' problems thus far have seemed more troubling, so let's ride the Sooners here.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 27, TEXAS 20
#11 Wisconsin (4-0) at #24 Michigan State (4-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
Both teams are 4-0, but they haven't really been tested that much -- they beat up on some MAC/WAC/Sun Belt-level opposition (and beat the holy piss out of some I-AA squads last week) and scraped by their one "real" opponent by the skin of their teeth (Wisco needed a blocked XP to beat Arizona State, while Michigan State needed that awesome fake field goal to beat Notre Dame in OT). It's also unclear how good or bad their "real" opponents are -- Arizona State's only two losses are to two top 10-ish teams (Wisco and Oregon) and they could have won both if Steven Threet could have stopped being Steven Threet for a few plays, while Notre Dame's three losses are to teams that are a combined 12-0. Wisco got a lot more preseason love than Sparty, but they looked sluggish until they opened up a can of whup-ass on Austin Peay. Michigan State has developed a really balanced offense and has some very good defensive players (like LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, to name a few guys)... although their secondary can be shredded (just ask Dayne Crist and the Domers). I think Sparty has a really good shot to pull off the upset here, as long as they're not looking ahead to next week's big showdown with Michigan.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, WISCONSIN 31
Virginia Tech (2-2) at #23 North Carolina State (4-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)
Raise your hand if you had NC State pegged to be atop the ACC. Lower your hand if you're an alum or a relative of one of the players. If your hand is still raised, you're a goddamn liar. But it's the ACC so the only reasonable expectation is for the unexpected to reign. This is a league where Wake Forest was champion as recently as four years ago; there is no brand of madness too mad for them (except maybe Duke going undefeated and playing for the crystal football -- that's just stupid talk) In any event, now that Virginia Tech has escaped the cruel clutches of foes from the WAC and CAA, they're rounding into their usual form for ACC season: a punishing defense (they shut out Boston College 19-0 a week ago) married to a "just enough to get by" offense (again, just 19 points a week ago). NC State survived a road trip to UCF (28-21), then zipped by supposed tests against Cincinnati (30-19) and Georgia Tech (45-28). As always, a belief in ACChaos is our guiding light here; the question is which team is more chaos-friendly? VT is the traditional bet in the ACC, so let's throw our chips in against 'em. Just because. ACChaos means we'll likely be proven wrong (again).
THE PICK: NC STATE 27, VIRGINIA TECH 20
#22 Penn State (3-1) at #17 Iowa (3-1) (8:05pm EST, ESPN)
I'm not going to lie and pretend I'm not a bit biased about this one... but it has been a really good game more often than not. Going back to 2000, the game's only been decided by more than a touchdown three times (2003, 2007, and last year, although that was a closer game than the 21-10 score indicated) and four games have been decided in the final minutes or OT. Sometimes it's an ugly, defensive slog (2004 and the infamous 6-4 game or last year's rain-soaked showdown), but they're usually exciting, intense games. It's turning into a pretty healthy rivalry and I'm a little sad that the Big Ten's new divisional format will probably lead to the game being played less often than it is now. As far as this game, it's the reversed situation from the last few years, when Penn State went into the game as the favorite with big dreams; Iowa's favored in this one. Most of the match-ups favor them (especially their defensive line versus PSU's offensive line), but that doesn't always mean a lot in this series. I understand if most people aren't watching this one -- it is on the same time as Florida-Bama and Oregon-Stanford after all -- but it should be worth flipping to during commercial breaks or at timeouts. Penn State has some solid players on both sides of the ball, but for the most part they're in rebuilding mode this season, while this is a season Iowa has been building to for a few years. Barring another special teams meltdown, Iowa should win this one.
THE PICK: IOWA 27, PENN STATE 13
#9 Stanford (4-0) at #4 Oregon (4-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
What do we expect out of this one? Points, points, and, oh yeah, more points. A year ago, Stanford won this game 51-42 and there isn't a whole lot of reason to expect differently from this game: Oregon's offense and its ridiculous almost point-a-minute scoring rate barely seems to have skipped a beat without Jeremiah Masoli at the helm and Stanford's offense has been bulldozing opponents even without the Albino Rhino (Toby Gerhart) keying the attack. NFL #1 draft pick-to-be Andrew Luck is leading the way for a balanced offense and the overlooked defense is looking pretty solid, too: they shut out the UCLA team that went into Austin and picked up 34 points and a win last week and they made mincemeat out of Notre Dame, too.
This game is also intriguing for the contrast in styles; Stanford just wants to line up and smash you in the mouth over and over again, while Oregon wants to use speed and misdirection to slice you to ribbons. Neither team has faced an offense as potent as the one they'll be facing on Saturday night. It's tough to distinguish between these two evenly-matched teams, but Stanford seems to have done better against slightly stronger competition (that UCLA win gets better and better) and Oregon did have trouble stopping what was suppsoed to be a mediocre Arizona State offense a week ago (at least until Steven Threet gifted them with turnover after turnover to end promising drives). The atmosphere in Autzen will be insane, but for now give us the team that likes to punch and get punched.
THE PICK: STANFORD 38, OREGON 34
#7 Florida (4-0) at #1 Alabama (4-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS)
One of these teams has (mostly) looked like a juggernaut, rolling through overmatched opponents and pummeling sad sack opponents. The other... has not. Alabama cruised through their early games, then faced their stiffest test yet in a road game at Arkansas, where they fell behind 17-7 at halftime and 20-7 late in the third quarter, before their brutally tough running game and an opportunistic defense (aided and abetted by Ryan Mallett's awful implosion) took over in the fourth quarter. On one hand, their failings in that game could be construed as a sign of weakness; on the other, their ability to battle back is impressive... and they aren't going to face many quarterbacks or passing offenses good enough to exploit the weaknesses in their secondary. The question this week is: can Florida do it? Their moribund offense woke up last week behind the Tebow-esque rhinoceros runs of Trey Burton, but doing that against Kentucky is one thing; doing that against Alabama's defense is another matter entirely.
Additionally, there's been a lot of hype for this game as the third part of the epic Bama-Florida trilogy that began with the last two SEC Championship Games, which seems a bit unfair. There was a great deal of similarity between the Florida and Alabama squads that tangled in those title games, but this year's been a ton of turnover on both sides for this game, with Alabama losing basically their entire starting defense and Florida losing huge swaths of players on both sides of the ball (including some guy named Tim). What happened in those two SEC title games probably isn't going to mean a whole lot for this particular game. As for this game... I don't really believe the Florida offense has truly turned a corner just because they lit up Kentucky and while the Florida defense will make some big plays and keep the game close for a while, I don't think they can withstand the punishment for an entire game.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 24, FLORIDA 14
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 16-8
#21 Texas (3-1) vs. #8 Oklahoma (4-0) (@ Dallas, TX) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
For the second-straight year, one of these teams enters the game with a loss; a year ago it was an injury-ravaged Oklahoma team limping into Dallas with injuries to Jermaine Gresham, Sam Bradford (who returned for that game only to get reinjured), and a host of other players, as well as a pair of losses to BYU and Miami. This year, Texas can't point to any injuries as the source of their malaise, but after stumbling through less-than-impressive wins over the likes of Rice and Wyoming, the Longhorns finally spit the bit in a home meltdown to UCLA a week ago. Frailties both old (their disjointed offense and non-existent running game) and new (a surprisingly porous run defense) were exposed by the Bruins -- and the Sooners will no doubt have been taking notes. Then again, they haven't exactly been running a train on their opposition thus far, either, they're 4-0 but that's included some skin-of-their-teeth wins over Air Force, Cincinnati, and (somehow) Utah State... as well as an incongruous massacre of Florida State sandwiched in-between those games. This game figures to pit strength against strength (Oklahoma's oft-explosive offense against Texas' typically immovable defense) and weakness against weakness (Oklahoma's porous defense against Texas' terminally inconsistent offense). One of those battles will likely cancel out, so the team that can win the other battle (whichever it happens to be) should come out on top. Texas' problems thus far have seemed more troubling, so let's ride the Sooners here.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA 27, TEXAS 20
#11 Wisconsin (4-0) at #24 Michigan State (4-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
Both teams are 4-0, but they haven't really been tested that much -- they beat up on some MAC/WAC/Sun Belt-level opposition (and beat the holy piss out of some I-AA squads last week) and scraped by their one "real" opponent by the skin of their teeth (Wisco needed a blocked XP to beat Arizona State, while Michigan State needed that awesome fake field goal to beat Notre Dame in OT). It's also unclear how good or bad their "real" opponents are -- Arizona State's only two losses are to two top 10-ish teams (Wisco and Oregon) and they could have won both if Steven Threet could have stopped being Steven Threet for a few plays, while Notre Dame's three losses are to teams that are a combined 12-0. Wisco got a lot more preseason love than Sparty, but they looked sluggish until they opened up a can of whup-ass on Austin Peay. Michigan State has developed a really balanced offense and has some very good defensive players (like LBs Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, to name a few guys)... although their secondary can be shredded (just ask Dayne Crist and the Domers). I think Sparty has a really good shot to pull off the upset here, as long as they're not looking ahead to next week's big showdown with Michigan.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, WISCONSIN 31
Virginia Tech (2-2) at #23 North Carolina State (4-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC)
Raise your hand if you had NC State pegged to be atop the ACC. Lower your hand if you're an alum or a relative of one of the players. If your hand is still raised, you're a goddamn liar. But it's the ACC so the only reasonable expectation is for the unexpected to reign. This is a league where Wake Forest was champion as recently as four years ago; there is no brand of madness too mad for them (except maybe Duke going undefeated and playing for the crystal football -- that's just stupid talk) In any event, now that Virginia Tech has escaped the cruel clutches of foes from the WAC and CAA, they're rounding into their usual form for ACC season: a punishing defense (they shut out Boston College 19-0 a week ago) married to a "just enough to get by" offense (again, just 19 points a week ago). NC State survived a road trip to UCF (28-21), then zipped by supposed tests against Cincinnati (30-19) and Georgia Tech (45-28). As always, a belief in ACChaos is our guiding light here; the question is which team is more chaos-friendly? VT is the traditional bet in the ACC, so let's throw our chips in against 'em. Just because. ACChaos means we'll likely be proven wrong (again).
THE PICK: NC STATE 27, VIRGINIA TECH 20
#22 Penn State (3-1) at #17 Iowa (3-1) (8:05pm EST, ESPN)
I'm not going to lie and pretend I'm not a bit biased about this one... but it has been a really good game more often than not. Going back to 2000, the game's only been decided by more than a touchdown three times (2003, 2007, and last year, although that was a closer game than the 21-10 score indicated) and four games have been decided in the final minutes or OT. Sometimes it's an ugly, defensive slog (2004 and the infamous 6-4 game or last year's rain-soaked showdown), but they're usually exciting, intense games. It's turning into a pretty healthy rivalry and I'm a little sad that the Big Ten's new divisional format will probably lead to the game being played less often than it is now. As far as this game, it's the reversed situation from the last few years, when Penn State went into the game as the favorite with big dreams; Iowa's favored in this one. Most of the match-ups favor them (especially their defensive line versus PSU's offensive line), but that doesn't always mean a lot in this series. I understand if most people aren't watching this one -- it is on the same time as Florida-Bama and Oregon-Stanford after all -- but it should be worth flipping to during commercial breaks or at timeouts. Penn State has some solid players on both sides of the ball, but for the most part they're in rebuilding mode this season, while this is a season Iowa has been building to for a few years. Barring another special teams meltdown, Iowa should win this one.
THE PICK: IOWA 27, PENN STATE 13
#9 Stanford (4-0) at #4 Oregon (4-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC/ESPN2)
What do we expect out of this one? Points, points, and, oh yeah, more points. A year ago, Stanford won this game 51-42 and there isn't a whole lot of reason to expect differently from this game: Oregon's offense and its ridiculous almost point-a-minute scoring rate barely seems to have skipped a beat without Jeremiah Masoli at the helm and Stanford's offense has been bulldozing opponents even without the Albino Rhino (Toby Gerhart) keying the attack. NFL #1 draft pick-to-be Andrew Luck is leading the way for a balanced offense and the overlooked defense is looking pretty solid, too: they shut out the UCLA team that went into Austin and picked up 34 points and a win last week and they made mincemeat out of Notre Dame, too.
This game is also intriguing for the contrast in styles; Stanford just wants to line up and smash you in the mouth over and over again, while Oregon wants to use speed and misdirection to slice you to ribbons. Neither team has faced an offense as potent as the one they'll be facing on Saturday night. It's tough to distinguish between these two evenly-matched teams, but Stanford seems to have done better against slightly stronger competition (that UCLA win gets better and better) and Oregon did have trouble stopping what was suppsoed to be a mediocre Arizona State offense a week ago (at least until Steven Threet gifted them with turnover after turnover to end promising drives). The atmosphere in Autzen will be insane, but for now give us the team that likes to punch and get punched.
THE PICK: STANFORD 38, OREGON 34
#7 Florida (4-0) at #1 Alabama (4-0) (8:00pm EST, CBS)
One of these teams has (mostly) looked like a juggernaut, rolling through overmatched opponents and pummeling sad sack opponents. The other... has not. Alabama cruised through their early games, then faced their stiffest test yet in a road game at Arkansas, where they fell behind 17-7 at halftime and 20-7 late in the third quarter, before their brutally tough running game and an opportunistic defense (aided and abetted by Ryan Mallett's awful implosion) took over in the fourth quarter. On one hand, their failings in that game could be construed as a sign of weakness; on the other, their ability to battle back is impressive... and they aren't going to face many quarterbacks or passing offenses good enough to exploit the weaknesses in their secondary. The question this week is: can Florida do it? Their moribund offense woke up last week behind the Tebow-esque rhinoceros runs of Trey Burton, but doing that against Kentucky is one thing; doing that against Alabama's defense is another matter entirely.
Additionally, there's been a lot of hype for this game as the third part of the epic Bama-Florida trilogy that began with the last two SEC Championship Games, which seems a bit unfair. There was a great deal of similarity between the Florida and Alabama squads that tangled in those title games, but this year's been a ton of turnover on both sides for this game, with Alabama losing basically their entire starting defense and Florida losing huge swaths of players on both sides of the ball (including some guy named Tim). What happened in those two SEC title games probably isn't going to mean a whole lot for this particular game. As for this game... I don't really believe the Florida offense has truly turned a corner just because they lit up Kentucky and while the Florida defense will make some big plays and keep the game close for a while, I don't think they can withstand the punishment for an entire game.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 24, FLORIDA 14
Friday, August 27, 2010
Big 12 Preview
2009 Standings
North
Nebraska Cornhuskers 10-4 (6-2)
Missouri Tigers 8-5 (4-4)
Kansas State Wildcats 6-6 (4-4)
Iowa State Cyclones 7-6 (3-5)
Colorado Buffaloes 3-9 (2-6)
Kansas Jayhawks 5-7 (1-7)
South
Texas Longhorns 13-1 (8-0)
Oklahoma State Cowboys 9-4 (6-2)
Texas Tech Red Raiders 9-4 (5-3)
Oklahoma Sooners 8-5 (5-3)
Texas A&M Aggies 6-7 (3-5)
Baylor Bears 4-8 (1-7)
Big 12 Championship Game: Texas 13 Nebraska 12
Returning Leaders: Passing
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jr (262 of 445 for 3593, 24 TD, 9 INT)
Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M, Sr (296 of 497 for 3579, 30 TD, 8 INT)
Taylor Potts, Texas Tech, Sr (309 of 470 for 3440, 22 TD, 13 INT)
Landry Jones, Oklahoma, Soph (261 of 449 for 3198, 26 TD, 14 INT)
Zac Lee, Nebraska, Sr (177 of 302 for 2143, 14 TD, 10 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
Daniel Thomas, Kansas St, Sr (247 carries for 1265 yds, 11 TD)
Alexander Robinson, Iowa St, Sr (231 carries for 1193 yds, 5 TD)
Roy Helu, Nebraska, Sr (220 carries for 1147 yds, 10 TD)
Baron Batch, Texas Tech, Sr (168 carries for 884 yds, 14 TD)
Derrick Washington, Missouri, Sr (190 carries for 865 yds, 10 TD)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma, Jr (89 rec for 1120 yds, 15 TD)
Scotty McKnight, Colorado, Sr (76 rec for 893 yds, 6 TD)
Alexander Torres, Texas Tech, Sr (67 rec for 806 yds, 6 TD)
Kendall Wright, Baylor, Jr (66 rec for 740 yds, 4 TD)
Detron Lewis, Texas Tech, Sr (65 rec for 844 yds, 6 TD)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Travis Lewis, Oklahoma, Jr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Trent Hunter, Texas A&M, Jr, S (95 total, 7.3 tackles/game)
Quinton Carter, Oklahoma, Sr, S (88 total, 6.7 tackles/game)
Drew Dudley, Kansas, Sr, LB (88 total, 7.3 tackles/game)
David Sims, Iowa State, Sr, S (88 total, 6.7 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Von Miller, Texas A&M, Sr, LB (16.5 sacks)
Aldon Smith, Missouri, Soph, DE (11.5)
Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma, Sr (11.0)
Jared Crick, Nebraska, Jr (9.5)
Sam Acho, Texas, Sr (7.0)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Blake Gideon, Texas, Jr, S (6 interceptions)
Tysyn Hartman, Kansas St, Jr, S (5)
David Sims, Iowa State, Sr, S (5)
Prince Amukamara, Nebraska, CB (5)
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 12 WITH THE ZEALOTS
Baylor Bears
Chris (Projection: #5 in South): So much is the effect of having Robert Griffin III back in a Bears uniform after his injury, that his presence alone helps them to jump Oklahoma St. and lead the team towards a quasi-relevant state. Now just remember he's only a sophomore.
Ross (Projection: #5 in South): They're the feel good story of the Big 12, between their long bowl drought and the fact that QB Robert Griffin is one of the most exciting players in college football -- or was, anyway, before he blew out his knee last year. Time will tell if he's able to regain his breathtaking pre-injury form. To get to a bowl this year, they're going to need to put up a ton of points, given all the holes they have on defense; good thing they return a slew of players on offense and get Griffin back to run the show. Really, their season is going to rise or fall on the condition of Griffin's knee; if he's all the way back, their offense should be very good and he may be able to lead them to six wins and the promised land of a bowl game. If he's not all the way back, it's probably another disappointing season in Waco.
Colorado Buffaloes
Ross (Projection: #4 in North): Dan Hawkins somehow survived to face another year as Colorado's head coach, but at least he has a lot of returning starters with him to try and get things turned around (or just send him out on a high note). They have ten back on offense (everyone but the TE) and seven back on defense (3/4 of the defensive line and secondary), so if Hawkins is ever going to get anything going at Colorado, it's probably going to be now. Too bad the schedule is such a bear: Georgia and Cal should be difficult challenges in the non-conference slate and the Big 12 road games are so challenging (Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska), it's hard to see them winning even one of those. 4-4 in the Big 12 might be a solid accomplishment for this team.
Chris (Projection: #3 in North): Dan Hawkins was supposed to revitalize Colorado Buffalo football. That was what he was brought in for. But 4 years and a 16-33 record later, it's apparent that the only reason he is still there is that he is too expensive to buy out for the Colorado Athletic Department. The real interesting this is that he finally decided to bench his son and make the dinner table at the Hawkins house a little more awkward. Although, he could be just trying to improve his son's life expectancy by getting him out of the way of charging defensive linemen that were allowed to pray on Buffalo QB's to the tune of 44 sacks last year. In all fairness, I do think this is the year Hawkins turns it around...a little. Why wouldn't it be with a team returning 15 starters and 7 in an above average D a year ago. Their schedule doesn't do them any favors in the record department, so I don't think they'll be going bowling, but it's so strong that it can prepare them for conference play.
Iowa State Cyclones
Chris (Projection: #5 in North): To be honest, this is again a case of little separation between the Cyclones and the Wildcats. Quarterback Austin Arnaud may be the difference between last and next to last for the Cyclones, as they return 7 other offensive starters around him. The real issue is that their suspect defense has a lot of new faces on it, so the offense will have to be on it's game week in and week out to keep from falling into the Big 12 North dungeon.
Ross (Projection: #6 in North): They return plenty on offense (starters at QB, RB, WR, and 3/5 of the OL), but returning just four starters on defense is going to put a lot of pressure on new faces to step up and stop the Big 12's many potent offenses. But the biggest problem is a schedule that puts Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech on the slate (not to mention challenging non-conference games against Iowa, Utah, and Northern Illinois), brings Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri to Ames and sends them to Colorado (trickier than it seems) for a road game. That schedule is just too daunting to see them amassing too many wins in 2010.
Kansas Jayhawks
Ross (Projection: #3 in North): There's a fair amount back on offense (7 players, including the entire offensive line), but there are a few glaring holes: namely, QB Todd Reesing, a multi-year starter, and his favorite targets, WR Dez Briscoe and WR Kerry Meier; that's a lot of production for the offense to replace. The defense returns six starters, so there are even more holes to fill on that side of the ball, but the schedule should help new coach Turner Gill get off to a hot start. They draw Baylor, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 South and their only really tough road game looks like a trip to Lincoln to take on Nebraska.
Chris (Projection: #4 in North): Never in my life have I seen a college football team go from so hot to so cold like Kansas did a year ago. After winning their first 5, the Jayhawks dropped their last 7, including a puzzling couple of decisions from the Mangino-man (who should now be able to successfully launch his career as the next Jared for Subway) that showed he knew he was on the way out and truly didn't care about his job anymore. Mangino sure picked the right time to leave though (well actually, by picked I mean he was fired), as Todd Reesing and the team built around him is now Kale Pick's team. Who? Yeah, that's the successor to Reesing. No offense to Turner Gill, but I think this team, with all the bad that Mangino left behind, will be too much of a project to turn around in one year...especially when only returning 11 starters.
Kansas State Wildcats
Ross (Projection: #5 in North): A team that was already lacking in talent now has to deal with returning just five starters on offense and six on defense; that's going to be tricky. With 4/5 of the offensive line back and a talented workhorse running back in Daniel Thomas, it's pretty clear what K-State is going to do on offense: run run and then run some more. The last thing a rebuilding and inexperienced team needs is a schedule short on easy home games, but that's exactly what K-State has: just three true home games (a fourth home game is in Kansas City against Iowa State) and they're against Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State. Winning either the Texas or Nebraska games is going to be very challenging, which is going to put a lot of pressure on a young team to pick up some wins on the road.
Chris (Projection: #6 in North): The Wildcats were 108th in the nation in passing a year ago, a stat that is likely to even fall further without a returning starter at receiver, tight end or quarterback. They will rely on Daniel Thomas and hope that a revamped defense which was very strong from a year ago will keep them in the Big 12 chase. But that's an awful lot of if's, and it is my belief that Kansas St. will become too one dimensional on offense and opponents will be quick to catch on.
Missouri Tigers
Chris (Projection: #2 in North): Anyone who thought that Mizzou was going to take a step back after Chase Daniel left was rudely awakened when they dismantled (but that word doesn't even do it justice) the fresh off a BCS bowl bid Illinois 37-9 in week 1. From that point on, Blaine Gabbert and Derrick Washington put on an offensive clinic. Guess what? They're back! Both of them. Big 12 D-coordinators will not sleep before their matchup with Missouri...or after them either. I believe in Missouri so much that if any other team not named Nebraska (okay, so not ANY other team, but the list of teams that would make me change that statement is short) was in their division, I would take them to win it.
Ross (Projection: #2 in North): Nebraska is the odds-on favorite in the B12 North, but if anyone can give them a run, it's Missouri, who returns eight starters on offense and defense, including returning stars at QB (Blaine Gabbert) and RB (Derrick Washington) and most of their offensive line and their entire defensive secondary. So the talent appears to be there. The schedule is challenging, though: they have a five-game stretch in the middle of the season (Colorado, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma, @ Nebraska, @ Texas Tech) that could derail things.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Chris (Projection: #1 in North): The Huskers were seconds away from a BCS bowl and an upset of the national runner-up, and seconds from an upset of a Virginia Tech team that won 10 games as well. That accounted for half of their losses a year ago. Back are 9 players on offense from a struggling unit a year ago, including their leading passer, rusher, and receiver. Also back is a strong core of 6 starters on a top-10 defense only led by one of the game's top defensive minds. The Huskers are primed for success this season and to follow up on their 2009 campaign to prove that it wasn't a fluke. Newsflash: It wasn't. If the Huskers can hold off the Tigers, they'll be heading to the Big 12 ship.
Ross (Projection: #1 in North): Losing Ndamukong Suh is unquestionably a massive blow to the defense and the entire team, but they have some other NFL-ready defensive stars (Jared Crick, Pierre Allen, Prince Amukamara) ready to step up and keep the defense as one of the top defenses in the league (and nation). Nine guys are back on an offense that was utterly wretched a year ago; hopefully another year of experience will allow them to blossom into, at least, competence. The Texas game is a lynchpin to their season and a win could springboard them to big things. Regardless, it's nigh-impossible to see anyone in the Big 12 North challenging them.
Oklahoma Sooners
Chris (Projection: #1 in South): The good news is that if Oklahoma somehow gives this race away, quarterback Landry Jones will be a shoe in for the 30th annual America's worst facial hair award. The bad news for the Big 12 South is that is unlikely to happen. Expect DeMarco Murray to absolutely DOMINATE the Big 12 this year en route to the conference's Offensive Player of the Year award. Just like Texas they don't bring a lot back, but just like Texas (or at least much like Texas) Oklahoma recruits seem to deliver in the clutch (unlike their coach Bob Stoops). The Sooners are ready to put behind them a year where their universe was turned upside down...and I think they will do it.
Ross (Projection: #2 in South): The loss of Bradford and Gresham so early last year meant that Oklahoma had to get a headstart on the post-Bradford/Gresham era, which should give them an advantage heading into this year. Landry Jones took his lumps as Bradford's replacement a year ago, but he came on strong at the end of the year and a full off-season of practice should have him ready to become the next incredibly prolific Oklahoma QB. They return a ton of other starters on offense, and while the defense needs a lot of patching up, defense tends to be Stoops' specialty. The bigger concern is the schedule, which includes some challenging non-conference games (Florida State, Air Force, and Cincinnati) and only three conference home games (since the Texas game is at the Cotton Bowl). Then again, if Oklahoma can get by Texas, there's no reason not to think that they could run the table in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Chris (Projection: #6 in South): Long season ahead for the Pokes...you know, full of things like Mike Gundy rants, and losing to Oklahoma, and being back at the bottom of the Big 12 totem pole. I'm sorry if nobody else sees it, but returning only 5 starters in this league lands you here. If you don't agree with me GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT! IT MAKES ME WANT TO PUKE!
Ross (Projection: #6 in South): This year we'll find out how well Mike Gundy has recruited since turning 40. They lost a ton of proven talent on offense and defense; until they show us how well they can replace guys like Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, and Russell Okung, it's reasonable to be skeptical of their prospects in 2010.
Texas Longhorns
Chris (Projection: #2 in South): I was SO close to giving this spot to Texas A&M, but just couldn't bring myself to it. That defense is horrid, no matter how many starters they return. Still if Texas' young squad should leave the door open for Jerrod Johnson to work his magic, you could see the Aggies overtaking the Horns in the standings. But, instead I'll go with conventional wisdom and say that the A&M defense will still be bad (you can't make THAT drastic of an improvement in one year), and I'll trust Mack Brown's recruits on getting the job done. What reason do we not have to trust this guy? He delivers!
Ross (Projection: #1 in South): The offense needs to be totally rebuilt and they lost some key performers on defense, too -- so why pick them to win the South? Like all the other elite teams, they reload and with Muschamp running the defense, it's pretty likely that he'll have another very good unit on the field. The offense is more of a question mark, but Garrett Gilbert is plenty talented (as he showed in the second half of the BCS title game last year). The best thing Texas has going for them is their schedule, which is paper-thin: they play only three true road games all year (@ Texas Tech, @ Nebraska, @ Kansas State) and it's really a two-game schedule (vs. Nebraska and Oklahoma). A split in those games and 11-1, 7-1 in the Big 12 looks very possible.
Texas A&M Aggies
Chris (Projection: #3 in South): Jerodd Johnson is one of the nation's best players, and he'll get to show his skills with a lot of skill position talent around him. However, there are two concerns at A&M. One, the new offensive tackles are both freshmen! Yikes! Johnson will have to use his athletic ability to evade pressure early on. Also, a defense that was just absolutely pathetic a year ago returns 10 starters but just like Callahan Brake Pads, won't offer you any guarantee. To me that spells Texas A&M in third...but one of the best 3rd teams in their division in the nation, rest assured.
Ross (Projection: #4 in South): It's a do or die year for Mike Sherman; the good news is that he finally has a talented and experienced team in place. The core of the offense is back, including QB Jerrod Johnson, who should be the best QB in the league. If they can fill a few holes along the offensive line, they should have an incredibly explosive offense. The defense also brings back nine starters, which would be really good news if they hadn't spent the better part of the last few years getting utterly torched and disgracing the unit's former "Wrecking Crew" moniker. The schedule is troubling, too, as they get all three of what could be the best teams in the Big 12 North (Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas).
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Chris (Projection: #4 in South): I like Texas Tech (or well what they did under Leach. It was a brilliant gameplan to beat teams). I like Tommy Tubberville. But as American Idol's Simon Cowell once said of a performer "You and Latin music go together about as well as Garlic and Ice Cream." That is the case here. Tubberville likes to run (evidenced by the Cadillac Williams/Ronnie Brown tandem). Texas Tech's pedigree is passing, and they were groomed over the last decade to do nothing else. So once again, I like both parties, but who doesn't see a fall with the system change and Tubberville at the helm? I just don't know if Tommy is the guy for the Red Raiders...but have faith in a more conventional job (a la not Mike Leach tries to throw a pass between every breath).
Ross (Projection: #3 in South): There's a lot of talent back on offense and a decent amount back on defense; if Mike Leach was still around, this might be a dark horse team to win the South, given the holes that Texas and Oklahoma have to fill. But with Leach gone and Tommy Tuberville in charge, this team is a total wildcard. While Tuberville claims he wants to keep the air raid passing game, given his past, it's hard not to see him dramatically increasing the importance of the running game -- and it's anyone's guess as to how that will go. On the plus side, they draw Iowa State and Colorado from the Big 12 North, which may be just enough to let them slide ahead of Texas A&M.
CFBZ Predicted Big 12 Finish
North
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers
2. Missouri Tigers
3. Colorado Buffaloes
4. Kansas Jayhawks
5. Kansas State Wildcats
6. Iowa State Cyclones
South
1. Oklahoma Sooners
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Texas A&M Aggies
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
5. (tie) Baylor Bears
5. (tie) Oklahoma State Cowboys
Big 12 Championship Game: Nebraska Cornhuskers over Oklahoma Sooners
North
Nebraska Cornhuskers 10-4 (6-2)
Missouri Tigers 8-5 (4-4)
Kansas State Wildcats 6-6 (4-4)
Iowa State Cyclones 7-6 (3-5)
Colorado Buffaloes 3-9 (2-6)
Kansas Jayhawks 5-7 (1-7)
South
Texas Longhorns 13-1 (8-0)
Oklahoma State Cowboys 9-4 (6-2)
Texas Tech Red Raiders 9-4 (5-3)
Oklahoma Sooners 8-5 (5-3)
Texas A&M Aggies 6-7 (3-5)
Baylor Bears 4-8 (1-7)
Big 12 Championship Game: Texas 13 Nebraska 12
Returning Leaders: Passing
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jr (262 of 445 for 3593, 24 TD, 9 INT)
Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M, Sr (296 of 497 for 3579, 30 TD, 8 INT)
Taylor Potts, Texas Tech, Sr (309 of 470 for 3440, 22 TD, 13 INT)
Landry Jones, Oklahoma, Soph (261 of 449 for 3198, 26 TD, 14 INT)
Zac Lee, Nebraska, Sr (177 of 302 for 2143, 14 TD, 10 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
Daniel Thomas, Kansas St, Sr (247 carries for 1265 yds, 11 TD)
Alexander Robinson, Iowa St, Sr (231 carries for 1193 yds, 5 TD)
Roy Helu, Nebraska, Sr (220 carries for 1147 yds, 10 TD)
Baron Batch, Texas Tech, Sr (168 carries for 884 yds, 14 TD)
Derrick Washington, Missouri, Sr (190 carries for 865 yds, 10 TD)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma, Jr (89 rec for 1120 yds, 15 TD)
Scotty McKnight, Colorado, Sr (76 rec for 893 yds, 6 TD)
Alexander Torres, Texas Tech, Sr (67 rec for 806 yds, 6 TD)
Kendall Wright, Baylor, Jr (66 rec for 740 yds, 4 TD)
Detron Lewis, Texas Tech, Sr (65 rec for 844 yds, 6 TD)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Travis Lewis, Oklahoma, Jr, LB (108 total, 8.3 tackles/game)
Trent Hunter, Texas A&M, Jr, S (95 total, 7.3 tackles/game)
Quinton Carter, Oklahoma, Sr, S (88 total, 6.7 tackles/game)
Drew Dudley, Kansas, Sr, LB (88 total, 7.3 tackles/game)
David Sims, Iowa State, Sr, S (88 total, 6.7 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Von Miller, Texas A&M, Sr, LB (16.5 sacks)
Aldon Smith, Missouri, Soph, DE (11.5)
Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma, Sr (11.0)
Jared Crick, Nebraska, Jr (9.5)
Sam Acho, Texas, Sr (7.0)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Blake Gideon, Texas, Jr, S (6 interceptions)
Tysyn Hartman, Kansas St, Jr, S (5)
David Sims, Iowa State, Sr, S (5)
Prince Amukamara, Nebraska, CB (5)
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG 12 WITH THE ZEALOTS
Baylor Bears
Chris (Projection: #5 in South): So much is the effect of having Robert Griffin III back in a Bears uniform after his injury, that his presence alone helps them to jump Oklahoma St. and lead the team towards a quasi-relevant state. Now just remember he's only a sophomore.
Ross (Projection: #5 in South): They're the feel good story of the Big 12, between their long bowl drought and the fact that QB Robert Griffin is one of the most exciting players in college football -- or was, anyway, before he blew out his knee last year. Time will tell if he's able to regain his breathtaking pre-injury form. To get to a bowl this year, they're going to need to put up a ton of points, given all the holes they have on defense; good thing they return a slew of players on offense and get Griffin back to run the show. Really, their season is going to rise or fall on the condition of Griffin's knee; if he's all the way back, their offense should be very good and he may be able to lead them to six wins and the promised land of a bowl game. If he's not all the way back, it's probably another disappointing season in Waco.
Colorado Buffaloes
Ross (Projection: #4 in North): Dan Hawkins somehow survived to face another year as Colorado's head coach, but at least he has a lot of returning starters with him to try and get things turned around (or just send him out on a high note). They have ten back on offense (everyone but the TE) and seven back on defense (3/4 of the defensive line and secondary), so if Hawkins is ever going to get anything going at Colorado, it's probably going to be now. Too bad the schedule is such a bear: Georgia and Cal should be difficult challenges in the non-conference slate and the Big 12 road games are so challenging (Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska), it's hard to see them winning even one of those. 4-4 in the Big 12 might be a solid accomplishment for this team.
Chris (Projection: #3 in North): Dan Hawkins was supposed to revitalize Colorado Buffalo football. That was what he was brought in for. But 4 years and a 16-33 record later, it's apparent that the only reason he is still there is that he is too expensive to buy out for the Colorado Athletic Department. The real interesting this is that he finally decided to bench his son and make the dinner table at the Hawkins house a little more awkward. Although, he could be just trying to improve his son's life expectancy by getting him out of the way of charging defensive linemen that were allowed to pray on Buffalo QB's to the tune of 44 sacks last year. In all fairness, I do think this is the year Hawkins turns it around...a little. Why wouldn't it be with a team returning 15 starters and 7 in an above average D a year ago. Their schedule doesn't do them any favors in the record department, so I don't think they'll be going bowling, but it's so strong that it can prepare them for conference play.
Iowa State Cyclones
Chris (Projection: #5 in North): To be honest, this is again a case of little separation between the Cyclones and the Wildcats. Quarterback Austin Arnaud may be the difference between last and next to last for the Cyclones, as they return 7 other offensive starters around him. The real issue is that their suspect defense has a lot of new faces on it, so the offense will have to be on it's game week in and week out to keep from falling into the Big 12 North dungeon.
Ross (Projection: #6 in North): They return plenty on offense (starters at QB, RB, WR, and 3/5 of the OL), but returning just four starters on defense is going to put a lot of pressure on new faces to step up and stop the Big 12's many potent offenses. But the biggest problem is a schedule that puts Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech on the slate (not to mention challenging non-conference games against Iowa, Utah, and Northern Illinois), brings Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri to Ames and sends them to Colorado (trickier than it seems) for a road game. That schedule is just too daunting to see them amassing too many wins in 2010.
Kansas Jayhawks
Ross (Projection: #3 in North): There's a fair amount back on offense (7 players, including the entire offensive line), but there are a few glaring holes: namely, QB Todd Reesing, a multi-year starter, and his favorite targets, WR Dez Briscoe and WR Kerry Meier; that's a lot of production for the offense to replace. The defense returns six starters, so there are even more holes to fill on that side of the ball, but the schedule should help new coach Turner Gill get off to a hot start. They draw Baylor, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 South and their only really tough road game looks like a trip to Lincoln to take on Nebraska.
Chris (Projection: #4 in North): Never in my life have I seen a college football team go from so hot to so cold like Kansas did a year ago. After winning their first 5, the Jayhawks dropped their last 7, including a puzzling couple of decisions from the Mangino-man (who should now be able to successfully launch his career as the next Jared for Subway) that showed he knew he was on the way out and truly didn't care about his job anymore. Mangino sure picked the right time to leave though (well actually, by picked I mean he was fired), as Todd Reesing and the team built around him is now Kale Pick's team. Who? Yeah, that's the successor to Reesing. No offense to Turner Gill, but I think this team, with all the bad that Mangino left behind, will be too much of a project to turn around in one year...especially when only returning 11 starters.
Kansas State Wildcats
Ross (Projection: #5 in North): A team that was already lacking in talent now has to deal with returning just five starters on offense and six on defense; that's going to be tricky. With 4/5 of the offensive line back and a talented workhorse running back in Daniel Thomas, it's pretty clear what K-State is going to do on offense: run run and then run some more. The last thing a rebuilding and inexperienced team needs is a schedule short on easy home games, but that's exactly what K-State has: just three true home games (a fourth home game is in Kansas City against Iowa State) and they're against Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State. Winning either the Texas or Nebraska games is going to be very challenging, which is going to put a lot of pressure on a young team to pick up some wins on the road.
Chris (Projection: #6 in North): The Wildcats were 108th in the nation in passing a year ago, a stat that is likely to even fall further without a returning starter at receiver, tight end or quarterback. They will rely on Daniel Thomas and hope that a revamped defense which was very strong from a year ago will keep them in the Big 12 chase. But that's an awful lot of if's, and it is my belief that Kansas St. will become too one dimensional on offense and opponents will be quick to catch on.
Missouri Tigers
Chris (Projection: #2 in North): Anyone who thought that Mizzou was going to take a step back after Chase Daniel left was rudely awakened when they dismantled (but that word doesn't even do it justice) the fresh off a BCS bowl bid Illinois 37-9 in week 1. From that point on, Blaine Gabbert and Derrick Washington put on an offensive clinic. Guess what? They're back! Both of them. Big 12 D-coordinators will not sleep before their matchup with Missouri...or after them either. I believe in Missouri so much that if any other team not named Nebraska (okay, so not ANY other team, but the list of teams that would make me change that statement is short) was in their division, I would take them to win it.
Ross (Projection: #2 in North): Nebraska is the odds-on favorite in the B12 North, but if anyone can give them a run, it's Missouri, who returns eight starters on offense and defense, including returning stars at QB (Blaine Gabbert) and RB (Derrick Washington) and most of their offensive line and their entire defensive secondary. So the talent appears to be there. The schedule is challenging, though: they have a five-game stretch in the middle of the season (Colorado, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma, @ Nebraska, @ Texas Tech) that could derail things.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Chris (Projection: #1 in North): The Huskers were seconds away from a BCS bowl and an upset of the national runner-up, and seconds from an upset of a Virginia Tech team that won 10 games as well. That accounted for half of their losses a year ago. Back are 9 players on offense from a struggling unit a year ago, including their leading passer, rusher, and receiver. Also back is a strong core of 6 starters on a top-10 defense only led by one of the game's top defensive minds. The Huskers are primed for success this season and to follow up on their 2009 campaign to prove that it wasn't a fluke. Newsflash: It wasn't. If the Huskers can hold off the Tigers, they'll be heading to the Big 12 ship.
Ross (Projection: #1 in North): Losing Ndamukong Suh is unquestionably a massive blow to the defense and the entire team, but they have some other NFL-ready defensive stars (Jared Crick, Pierre Allen, Prince Amukamara) ready to step up and keep the defense as one of the top defenses in the league (and nation). Nine guys are back on an offense that was utterly wretched a year ago; hopefully another year of experience will allow them to blossom into, at least, competence. The Texas game is a lynchpin to their season and a win could springboard them to big things. Regardless, it's nigh-impossible to see anyone in the Big 12 North challenging them.
Oklahoma Sooners
Chris (Projection: #1 in South): The good news is that if Oklahoma somehow gives this race away, quarterback Landry Jones will be a shoe in for the 30th annual America's worst facial hair award. The bad news for the Big 12 South is that is unlikely to happen. Expect DeMarco Murray to absolutely DOMINATE the Big 12 this year en route to the conference's Offensive Player of the Year award. Just like Texas they don't bring a lot back, but just like Texas (or at least much like Texas) Oklahoma recruits seem to deliver in the clutch (unlike their coach Bob Stoops). The Sooners are ready to put behind them a year where their universe was turned upside down...and I think they will do it.
Ross (Projection: #2 in South): The loss of Bradford and Gresham so early last year meant that Oklahoma had to get a headstart on the post-Bradford/Gresham era, which should give them an advantage heading into this year. Landry Jones took his lumps as Bradford's replacement a year ago, but he came on strong at the end of the year and a full off-season of practice should have him ready to become the next incredibly prolific Oklahoma QB. They return a ton of other starters on offense, and while the defense needs a lot of patching up, defense tends to be Stoops' specialty. The bigger concern is the schedule, which includes some challenging non-conference games (Florida State, Air Force, and Cincinnati) and only three conference home games (since the Texas game is at the Cotton Bowl). Then again, if Oklahoma can get by Texas, there's no reason not to think that they could run the table in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Chris (Projection: #6 in South): Long season ahead for the Pokes...you know, full of things like Mike Gundy rants, and losing to Oklahoma, and being back at the bottom of the Big 12 totem pole. I'm sorry if nobody else sees it, but returning only 5 starters in this league lands you here. If you don't agree with me GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT! IT MAKES ME WANT TO PUKE!
Ross (Projection: #6 in South): This year we'll find out how well Mike Gundy has recruited since turning 40. They lost a ton of proven talent on offense and defense; until they show us how well they can replace guys like Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, and Russell Okung, it's reasonable to be skeptical of their prospects in 2010.
Texas Longhorns
Chris (Projection: #2 in South): I was SO close to giving this spot to Texas A&M, but just couldn't bring myself to it. That defense is horrid, no matter how many starters they return. Still if Texas' young squad should leave the door open for Jerrod Johnson to work his magic, you could see the Aggies overtaking the Horns in the standings. But, instead I'll go with conventional wisdom and say that the A&M defense will still be bad (you can't make THAT drastic of an improvement in one year), and I'll trust Mack Brown's recruits on getting the job done. What reason do we not have to trust this guy? He delivers!
Ross (Projection: #1 in South): The offense needs to be totally rebuilt and they lost some key performers on defense, too -- so why pick them to win the South? Like all the other elite teams, they reload and with Muschamp running the defense, it's pretty likely that he'll have another very good unit on the field. The offense is more of a question mark, but Garrett Gilbert is plenty talented (as he showed in the second half of the BCS title game last year). The best thing Texas has going for them is their schedule, which is paper-thin: they play only three true road games all year (@ Texas Tech, @ Nebraska, @ Kansas State) and it's really a two-game schedule (vs. Nebraska and Oklahoma). A split in those games and 11-1, 7-1 in the Big 12 looks very possible.
Texas A&M Aggies
Chris (Projection: #3 in South): Jerodd Johnson is one of the nation's best players, and he'll get to show his skills with a lot of skill position talent around him. However, there are two concerns at A&M. One, the new offensive tackles are both freshmen! Yikes! Johnson will have to use his athletic ability to evade pressure early on. Also, a defense that was just absolutely pathetic a year ago returns 10 starters but just like Callahan Brake Pads, won't offer you any guarantee. To me that spells Texas A&M in third...but one of the best 3rd teams in their division in the nation, rest assured.
Ross (Projection: #4 in South): It's a do or die year for Mike Sherman; the good news is that he finally has a talented and experienced team in place. The core of the offense is back, including QB Jerrod Johnson, who should be the best QB in the league. If they can fill a few holes along the offensive line, they should have an incredibly explosive offense. The defense also brings back nine starters, which would be really good news if they hadn't spent the better part of the last few years getting utterly torched and disgracing the unit's former "Wrecking Crew" moniker. The schedule is troubling, too, as they get all three of what could be the best teams in the Big 12 North (Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas).
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Chris (Projection: #4 in South): I like Texas Tech (or well what they did under Leach. It was a brilliant gameplan to beat teams). I like Tommy Tubberville. But as American Idol's Simon Cowell once said of a performer "You and Latin music go together about as well as Garlic and Ice Cream." That is the case here. Tubberville likes to run (evidenced by the Cadillac Williams/Ronnie Brown tandem). Texas Tech's pedigree is passing, and they were groomed over the last decade to do nothing else. So once again, I like both parties, but who doesn't see a fall with the system change and Tubberville at the helm? I just don't know if Tommy is the guy for the Red Raiders...but have faith in a more conventional job (a la not Mike Leach tries to throw a pass between every breath).
Ross (Projection: #3 in South): There's a lot of talent back on offense and a decent amount back on defense; if Mike Leach was still around, this might be a dark horse team to win the South, given the holes that Texas and Oklahoma have to fill. But with Leach gone and Tommy Tuberville in charge, this team is a total wildcard. While Tuberville claims he wants to keep the air raid passing game, given his past, it's hard not to see him dramatically increasing the importance of the running game -- and it's anyone's guess as to how that will go. On the plus side, they draw Iowa State and Colorado from the Big 12 North, which may be just enough to let them slide ahead of Texas A&M.
CFBZ Predicted Big 12 Finish
North
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers
2. Missouri Tigers
3. Colorado Buffaloes
4. Kansas Jayhawks
5. Kansas State Wildcats
6. Iowa State Cyclones
South
1. Oklahoma Sooners
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Texas A&M Aggies
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
5. (tie) Baylor Bears
5. (tie) Oklahoma State Cowboys
Big 12 Championship Game: Nebraska Cornhuskers over Oklahoma Sooners
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
