Each week during the off-season I will be doing this feature that will simply be called "This Week In College Football". We will cover the biggest news and stories of the past week and give some opinions and analysis.
Coaching Changes
Most of the interest this off-season in coaching has been in Head Coaching positions. We've covered some of these like Brady Hoke, Will Muschamp, Steve Adazzio and Kevin Wilson. But now that the Head Coaching dust is settling maybe just as interesting a topic is assistant coaches. Having the right assistant coach that is the yin to your yang can be vital for a coach. Just ask Gene Chizik how much he values Gus Malzahn and what he did with the Auburn offense and Cam Newton this year. We've touch on some of these assistant coaching changes in our "Exit Surveys" already like Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State. Did I mention that I really like the addition of Dana Holgerson to the West Virginia staff? I don't know how great it will work in the first year with Bill Stewart still in charge but watch out for West Virginia in the next few years. With one exception I really like what Mack Brown and Texas has done with his staff. Of course, Mack has the advantage of being Texas which is a destination job. Mack went out and got Boise State's offensive coordinator (Bryan Harsin) and also got Mississippi State's defensive coordinator (Manny Diaz). Let's take a look at Diaz really quickly. Mississippi State's defense reduced it's points allowed by 7 points in his only year in Starkvegas, had 10 more sacks than last year, 29 more tackles for loss, and decreased opponents red zone performance by nearly 10%. I think Diaz will be a very capable replacement for Will Muschamp. The hire I question, as a biased Georgia fan and alum, is why Mack Brown would hire Stacy Searles as his OL coach. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad Georgia gets a fresh start without him but this was strictly a "reputation" hire and nothing more. The last two years the Georgia offensive line has been pitiful. In my opinion it was the most under-performing unit in all of college football. Georgia QB Aaron Murray was running for his life and RBs Caleb King and Washaun Ealey grew accustomed to getting blown up by the defense immediately after receiving the hand-off (which often times resulted in disaster for Georgia). Good luck with that Texas, but I think Harsin and Diaz should more than compensate for the Searles hire.
Another very interesting hire is Steve Kragthorpe at LSU as Offensive Coordinator. Les Miles already has a great defensive coach in John Chavis so now he just needs to figure out the offensive side of the football. Kragthorpe is probably most well known for his tenure at Louisville, where he only won 5 Big East games in 3 years. He has NFL experience as a QB Coach and college experience as an OC but it's been a while since he's been in that position. The main reason that it looks like Kragthorpe was the guy hired is that Miles valued someone who could develop QBs. It is going to get really interesting in Baton Rouge to see if Jordan Jefferson can fend off exiled Bulldog Zach Mettenburger for QB1. In our "Way To Early" Top 10 for 2011 we've got LSU at #4 (don't tell anybody though because we haven't posted it yet. This is just a secret between me and you). If the LSU offense gets it going this year they will contend for the National Title. Even though this could be the pivotal coordinator hire of the year I still wish Les Miles would have hire Mike Leach to run the offense. Could you imagine the hijinks that would have ensued? It would have been reality TV worthy and I think it probably would have worked on the field too.
Recruiting and Oversigning
With NSD (National Signing Day) fast approaching recruiting is really heating up. The big news this week was former Texas commitment, 5-Star OL Christian Westerman, flipping his verbal commitment to the National Champion Auburn Tigers. Another big winner this week was Mark Richt and Georgia gaining commitments from teammates (and 4-Star prospects) TE Jay Rome and WR Malcolm Mitchell. We also had some indecision from ESPNU 150 (#90) DE Stephon Tuitt who flipped his commitment from Notre Dame to Georgia Tech and then back to Notre Dame. I'm sure he won't be the last guy to flip a commitment before NSD.
While recruiting is a crap shoot, there are still uncommitted guys that can come in and make an immediate impact for their teams and some fans made some noise this weekend to let these guys know that they are wanted. The first is ESPNU 150 #1 prospect DE Jadeveon Clowney. He's 6'6", 240 and looks like a monster on film. His list of finalists is Miami (Fl), Alabama, South Carolina, FSU and LSU. Clowney was at the South Carolina basketball game this weekend and the fans there treated him to some "We Want Clowney! We Want Clowney!" chants. Another uncommitted prospect is RB Isaiah Crowell. Crowell is down to Alabama and Georgia. Georgia just recently beat out Bama for Rome and Mitchell so it would really be an upset for Georgia to win out on 3 straight prospects from them (although Bama did land DE Xzavier Dickson, who was also considering Georgia, earlier this month). Crowell took his official visit to Georgia this weekend and he watched the Dawgs romp the Mississippi State Bulldogs in basketball and was treated to some chants of "I...sai ... ah!!" Some of my blog mates will tell you that recruiting is way too hyped and while I agree with them I also think that there are impact guys out there who can turn a program (just ask Auburn). I was born and raised in the south so college football is a 365 day sport here and we need something to talk about!
While we are on the subject of recruiting let's talk for a minute about oversigning. Teams are allowed to have 85 scholarship athletes on their team, with no more than 25 scholarship players enrolled per season (teams are allowed to have early-enrollees count against the previous year if the team was under 25 for that year). Despite these limits teams still over-sign and find ways to get themselves under the limit. Some athletes don't make the grades, some might flip their commitments at the last minute (see also: Da'Rick Rogers) and some are gray-shirted (which means that the recruit waits to enroll until December and then counts against the next year). Yet some teams are already over the limit of 25. Right now South Carolina is at 30 commitments and Arkansas is at 28. Others, like Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU are currently scheduled to be over their 85 scholarships by around 10. I will use an example to illustrate the big problem I have with oversigning. Last year OL Elliot Porter committed to LSU only to be told, WHEN HE ARRIVED ON CAMPUS, that they did not have a scholarship for him and they asked him to gray-shirt. Porter had committed to LSU in July and then didn't find out that they didn't have room until August of the next year. It's situations like this that make oversigning a big issue. The NCAA already has a limit of 25 so what they should do is just simply enforce that rule. Any team that signs over 25 recruits will have that number subtracted from the next years total. So if they sign 28 then that means that they only get 22 next year. Each team would also have the ability to "petition" the NCAA if something unforeseen happened (ex: coaching change, excessive injuries) that opened up extra scholarships and they could get an exemption to go over the 25. Those are just my thoughts on the issue.
A Farewell to Michigan
We found out this week that former starting QB for Michigan Tate Forcier will indeed transfer. You guys remember him, right? He was the starting QB for RichRod in 2009 (threw for over 2,000 yards as a freshman) before being passed by Denard Robinson. He was declared academically ineligible and missed Michigan's bowl game, but I don't think he was the reason the Wolverines got utterly destroyed by Mississippi State. Then there was a tug-of-war with whether he was going to transfer or not. Well, this week Tate tweeted his intentions saying that he wanted to stay but it was clear Michigan gave up on him. So now the questions are how quickly he can get back in good academic standing and where he will transfer to. In 2010 he was rated by ESPNU as #144 on their ESPNU 150. Ole Miss pops up in my head immediately. Houston Nutt loves him some transfer QB (see also: Jeremiah Masoli) so that could be a possibility (Ole Miss is +10 in oversigning right now but that doesn't seem to matter to Mr. Nutt). Stories are popping up that Montana is a potential landing spot for him but I'd prefer he stay in D-1 (Montana flirted with moving up to the FBS but decided not to do so) to see what he is capable of and if he can become a good starting QB for someone. He's from San Diego so somewhere on the left coast would be the most likely option (his brother Chris previously transferred from UCLA to Furman and before that his brother Jason transferred from Michigan to Stanford). If I was a coach in the WAC or the MWC I would seriously be looking at this kid.
Showing posts with label South Carolina Gamecocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label South Carolina Gamecocks. Show all posts
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
South Carolina Gamecocks: 2010 Exit Survey
2010 CFBZ Prediction: 3rd Place in SEC East
2010 Actual Finish: 1st Place in SEC East (9-5, 5-3)
In 2010 the South Carolina Gamecocks finally reached the top of the SEC East. Thanks to down years from Florida, Georgia and Tennessee and wins over all of those teams the Gamecocks finally took their turn at the top in their half of the SEC. South Carolina had some big wins this year with the biggest coming against Alabama as they knocked off the #1 team in the country. Freshman RB Marcus Lattimore was amazing at times, finishing 3rd in the SEC in rushing yards, and showed how one guy at a skill position can really make a difference for a team. The other guy who should be singled out is Alshon Jeffrey. In a league of stud receivers (A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, etc) Jeffrey led the league in receptions, receiving yards and TD receptions. 2010 ended on a sour note for the Gamecocks as they got spanked by eventual National Champion Auburn 56-17 in the SEC Championship Game and then lost to FSU in the Chik-fil-A Bowl 26-17. Those two losses might just help to keep the Gamecocks heads on straight going into next year as they challenge for their second consecutive SEC East Crown. We caught up with South Carolina blog Leftover Hot Dog to find out their thoughts on the Gamecocks of 2010.
Despite ending the season on a down note (losses to Auburn and FSU) South Carolina finally broke through and won the SEC East. What were your favorite memories from the season?
Doing the impossible...beating then number one Alabama at home on national tv, beating Florida in the "Swamp" for the first time to claim the SEC East and then taking part in the SEC Championship Game itself. Those are my favorite things about 2010 Gamecock football and what will be used to build the program.
Which player was the biggest surprise of the season?
The biggest surprise was the quick development of Marcus Lattimore. Everyone knew he was good coming out of high school but he was really good his freshman season at USC. He is one of the main reasons South Carolina had a special season. He accounted for 19 USC touchdowns and won many postseason Freshman of the Year awards. Safe to say, he is the real deal and will be a topic of conversation in 2011.
Which player are you most excited about for next season?
I could say Marcus Lattimore or potential USC recruit Jadeveon Clowney but I will go with Alshon Jeffery. The Gamecocks key passing target was another reason the Gamecocks had success in 2010 and are primed for more good things in 2011. The wideout can catch anything and has the speed to stretch the field. He had 88 catches for 1,517 yards and 9 TDs in 2010. Expect even more in 2011 as he will claim sole possession of the "Best WR in SEC" title now UGA's Green is gone.
Stephen Garcia has one more year in Columbia. Is he the man next year or will we continue to see more of Connor Shaw?
Stephen Garcia is someone you love and hate. 2010 was a great year for him as he threw for 3,059 yards and 20 TDs. But the backup QB is the most loved player and Connor Shaw has the talent to lead the team. I don't see it happening in 2011, at least to start. This is Garcia's team and he guided them to the SEC Championship. You will see Connor Shaw get a chance but I feel Garcia will get the nod to begin 2011 as the QB for Coach Spurrier. Now will Garcia hold onto the starting spot...well that is up to Garcia.
5. What does South Carolina need to improve the most this off-season to try and retain their SEC East Title?
South Carolina needs to add depth all around, improve linebacker play, get the secondary playing better as a unit, improve the offensive line and not be satisfied with what was accomplished in 2010. Do all that and hello SEC title as Carolina will return a lot of talent and the SEC East is still building so the opportunity to repeat as champs is present in 2011.
2010 Actual Finish: 1st Place in SEC East (9-5, 5-3)
In 2010 the South Carolina Gamecocks finally reached the top of the SEC East. Thanks to down years from Florida, Georgia and Tennessee and wins over all of those teams the Gamecocks finally took their turn at the top in their half of the SEC. South Carolina had some big wins this year with the biggest coming against Alabama as they knocked off the #1 team in the country. Freshman RB Marcus Lattimore was amazing at times, finishing 3rd in the SEC in rushing yards, and showed how one guy at a skill position can really make a difference for a team. The other guy who should be singled out is Alshon Jeffrey. In a league of stud receivers (A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, etc) Jeffrey led the league in receptions, receiving yards and TD receptions. 2010 ended on a sour note for the Gamecocks as they got spanked by eventual National Champion Auburn 56-17 in the SEC Championship Game and then lost to FSU in the Chik-fil-A Bowl 26-17. Those two losses might just help to keep the Gamecocks heads on straight going into next year as they challenge for their second consecutive SEC East Crown. We caught up with South Carolina blog Leftover Hot Dog to find out their thoughts on the Gamecocks of 2010.
Despite ending the season on a down note (losses to Auburn and FSU) South Carolina finally broke through and won the SEC East. What were your favorite memories from the season?
Doing the impossible...beating then number one Alabama at home on national tv, beating Florida in the "Swamp" for the first time to claim the SEC East and then taking part in the SEC Championship Game itself. Those are my favorite things about 2010 Gamecock football and what will be used to build the program.
Which player was the biggest surprise of the season?
The biggest surprise was the quick development of Marcus Lattimore. Everyone knew he was good coming out of high school but he was really good his freshman season at USC. He is one of the main reasons South Carolina had a special season. He accounted for 19 USC touchdowns and won many postseason Freshman of the Year awards. Safe to say, he is the real deal and will be a topic of conversation in 2011.
Which player are you most excited about for next season?
I could say Marcus Lattimore or potential USC recruit Jadeveon Clowney but I will go with Alshon Jeffery. The Gamecocks key passing target was another reason the Gamecocks had success in 2010 and are primed for more good things in 2011. The wideout can catch anything and has the speed to stretch the field. He had 88 catches for 1,517 yards and 9 TDs in 2010. Expect even more in 2011 as he will claim sole possession of the "Best WR in SEC" title now UGA's Green is gone.
Stephen Garcia has one more year in Columbia. Is he the man next year or will we continue to see more of Connor Shaw?
Stephen Garcia is someone you love and hate. 2010 was a great year for him as he threw for 3,059 yards and 20 TDs. But the backup QB is the most loved player and Connor Shaw has the talent to lead the team. I don't see it happening in 2011, at least to start. This is Garcia's team and he guided them to the SEC Championship. You will see Connor Shaw get a chance but I feel Garcia will get the nod to begin 2011 as the QB for Coach Spurrier. Now will Garcia hold onto the starting spot...well that is up to Garcia.
5. What does South Carolina need to improve the most this off-season to try and retain their SEC East Title?
South Carolina needs to add depth all around, improve linebacker play, get the secondary playing better as a unit, improve the offensive line and not be satisfied with what was accomplished in 2010. Do all that and hello SEC title as Carolina will return a lot of talent and the SEC East is still building so the opportunity to repeat as champs is present in 2011.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Conference Championship Game Predictions
SEC: Auburn (12-0) vs. South Carolina (9-3)
Kevin: OK, everybody who had Auburn vs South Carolina at the beginning of the year raise your hands. Seriously, the odds of this happening had to be very narrow at the beginning of the season. Florida and Georgia both under-performed this year and South Carolina beat both of them to take the SEC East Crown. Auburn had a much tougher road as they are in the same division as 4 other Top 25 teams but still finished the year unbeaten. All year I was waiting for Auburn to lose but as the year went on Auburn seemed to get stronger. They fell behind against Georgia and Alabama but showed a lot of mental toughness and came back to win both of those games. It's just hard to bet against Auburn right now. That being said, I will be rooting against them as I just can't root for Nick Unfairley after his repeated late hits to my redshirt freshman QB Aaron Murray.
Prediction: AUBURN 31 SOUTH CAROLINA 24
Ross: On one hand, you have an Auburn team that seems like a team of destiny after the way they came back from the dead against Alabama and pulled off an incredible comeback win. They also happen to have the best player in college football this year (Cam Newton), who's playing at an incredibly high level. And they have one of the best defensive players in college football, too, in Nick Fairley. On the other hand, you have a South Carolina team that seems to have flipped a switch in the last three weeks, turning in three straight dominant performances, including blowout wins over Florida (to clinch the SEC East) and Clemson (to win a rivalry game). Stephen Garcia's not turning the ball over, Marcus Lattimore is running like a man possessed, Alshon Jeffery is the best receiver no one talks about, and the defense is stoning people. Oh, and they did come awful close to knocking off Auburn when they played earlier this year, until Newton Hulked up in the fourth quarter and the Cocks helped out by turning the ball over four times. So... they could win, right? Yeah, they could, but only a fool would bet against Cam Newton at this point -- and I don't feel like being a fool.
Prediction: AUBURN 38, SOUTH CAROLINA 31
Big 12: Oklahoma (10-2) vs. Nebraska (10-2)
Kevin: This is a HUGE game for Oklahoma and the Big 12. Nobody in the Big 12 wants to see Nebraska win the Big 12 title in their last season in the conference. OU is riding a 3-game winning streak over Texas Tech, Baylor and rival Okie State. Nebraska comes into the game having lost to Texas A&M just before blowing out Colorado. I really don't have a feel for this one but I just think OU is going to tough it out.
Prediction: OKLAHOMA 27 NEBRASKA 24
Ross: How fitting that the last-ever Big 12 Championship Game features the two teams that defined the conference that birthed the Big 12 -- the Big 8. Oklahoma and Nebraska had one of the game's most legendary rivalries in the 70s and 80s and while it was unavoidably diminished when the Big 12 was formed and they stopped playing each other every year, it's still a pretty good thing -- especially when both teams are good, which is the case this year. Neither team is great (they each have two losses for a reason), but they've both been very impressive for stretches of the season. Oklahoma seems to be rounding into form at the end of the season, especially on offense (three straight efforts of 40+ points) and for all of Bob Stoops' failures in BCS bowls, he's been a killer in the Big 12 Championship Game (5-1). On the other hand, Nebraska has a far better defense than what Oklahoma has been playing. The key for them will be whether Taylor Martinez is healthy enough to be effective in this game -- Nebraska blew out Colorado without him, but they aren't going to get solid performances from the usually lousy Cody Green or two touchdown passes from a running back (Rex Burkhead) too often. Defense usually wins championships, but going against Stoops in a game like this is usually a losing proposition.
Prediction: OKLAHOMA 27, NEBRASKA 20
ACC: FSU (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (10-2)
Kevin: FSU showed some fire that I didn't know they had in them last week when they took Herban Meyer and Florida to the woodshed. That being said, Virginia Tech is on a 10-game winning streak. Who would have thought that after falling Boise State and then James Madison (yes, James Madison) that Virginia Tech would be undefeated in the ACC. I can't bet against the Hokies in this one.
Prediction: VIRGINIA TECH 34 FLORIDA STATE 21
Prediction: VIRGINIA TECH 28, FLORIDA STATE 24
Friday, November 5, 2010
Five Questions: SEC Edition
Will Auburn go undefeated and run the table into the National Championship Game?
Brandon: No. I feel that Alabama is still the team to beat in the SEC, I think the Cam Newton train comes crashing to a halt during the Iron Bowl, specifically if Auburn ever gets down by more than 10-14 Points.
Chris: Right now it's hard to bet against the Tigers. I am probably one of the last people not COMPLETELY sold on them, but I still recognize that they are an elite team. However, I will pick Alabama to knock them off in the Iron Bowl. I know that since South Carolina beat the Tide, there has been a game-plan established for how to beat them. It's not that teams haven't tried to replicate it, it's just that they haven't been able to. The Tigers will be tasked with shutting down the Tide's backfield duo, something that nobody except the Gamecocks did. I don't expect lightning to strike twice, therefore, I see the Tide coming out on top and ruining Auburn's shot at the NC game.
J Martin: I'd like to be wrong, but my gut feeling is yes. Cam Newton is playing like one of those quarterbacks I used to create to cheat in NCAA Football when I was kid. You know, Speed = 99, Acceleration = 99, Break Tackle = 99, Arm Strength = 99, etc. Just snap the ball to him and start running around. It was unstoppable. Well, life imitates art. I really don't see a scheme that can slow him down. Primarily because so much of what he does isn't based on scheme. He's at his most deadly whenever what's supposed to be happening on a given play breaks down and he just takes off. He gets into the open field and makes it a game of athlete vs. athlete, and the 6'6", 250 lb guy moving at 4.5 is going to win that more often than not. If you can stop him, you win. But the only team left on Auburn's schedule with the athletes to stop him is Alabama. And as the resident Bama expert, I have to admit I don't have a lot of faith in this bunch's ability to get the job done.
Kevin: It's taken me a long time to come around on Auburn and I still don't think I'm there yet. I just don't think they have the defense to get past Auburn. If you asked me last week I thought that if Georgia could get past Florida that they would have a good shot at Auburn. 2005 was the last time Auburn beat Georgia but I think Auburn beats the Dawgs 52 to 38 but then slips up against Bama.
Ross: No. Auburn will lose to Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but their consolation prize will be a trip to the Sugar Bowl, which isn't so bad.
Who will win the East?
Brandon: Florida. I think each team will take the other out, and they will come out on top of this whole mess.
Chris: Nobody. That's a distinct possibility at this point, right?
J Martin: Barring a fluke Gator loss to Vanderbilt, it's coming down to South Carolina @ Florida. If you asked me before this past Saturday, I would've said South Carolina without a second thought. Now, I'm leaning towards Florida. For whatever weaknesses they've shown this season, they reasserted their dominance over the SEC East by topping a Georgia team that smelled blood coming in to the game. And just as the Bulldogs couldn't take advantage of a down year for the Gators, I'm thinking Spurrier & the precocious Gamecocks will find themselves subjugated to Urban Meyer, yet again.
Kevin: It's Florida. Time To Die South Carolina! Carolina has a chance because they have Lattimore and Alshon but they also have Stephen Garcia and Steve Spurrier and I really have no confidence in that duo to beat Florida.
Ross: Easy answer: whoever wins the South Carolina-Florida game. But, seriously, even though Florida showed some offensive competence against Georgia, I still favor South Carolina slightly. They're better defensively than Georgia and they have some very potent offensive weapons of their own (Alshon Jeffery, Marcus Lattimore, Stephen Garcia). They've also already proven capable of winning a big game this year.
Can the winner of the East upset the West in the SEC Championship Game?
Brandon: This is going to sound strange, so bear with me…IF the East Champion plays Alabama I think that they can upset them, as it happened earlier this year, but if the East Champion plays Auburn, then I don’t think they would have enough.
Chris: If that team believes in voodoo and puts a million hexes on the team from the West. Oh, and those hexes have to work.
J Martin: This is the tricky part. If it's South Carolina, they can win it. They've already proven they can beat Bama, and they came within a boneheaded Spurrier QB change of possibly beating Auburn. Even if LSU were to sneak in to the title game, you'd have to like SC's odds. But if it's Florida representing the East, I say no way. We already know the Gators don't belong on the same field as Alabama right now. And it's difficult to imagine Florida's scatter-shot offense keeping up with Cam Newton for 4 quarters.
Kevin: No they can't. If it's Florida they simply don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Bama or Auburn and if it's South Carolina then Bama will be out for blood and Auburn already took their best shot and will adjust.
Ross: Sure. Whoever wins the East will be a talented squad in their own right and in a winner-takes-all setting like the SEC Championship Game, anything can happen. If South Carolina emerges from the East, they'd definitely have a realistic shot at winning the game, considering that they've already defeated Alabama and took Auburn to the limit. If anyone else emerges, I'd like their chances slightly less. That said... WILL they upset the SEC West champion? No, I don't think so -- Auburn and Alabama are simply playing to too high a level right now.
Will Georgia become bowl eligible this year?
Brandon: Yes. I think they beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech.
Chris: Um...They'll beat Idaho State, get Auburn in a trap game, so an upset IS possible here for an unsung Georgia group, and a Georgia Tech team who has been too inconsistent to predict. They could go 3-0, they could go 2-1, or they could go 1-2 and miss out. I say they barely make the cut by beating Georgia Tech.
J Martin: Yes, but it'll be a nail biter. It will take the Bulldogs all the way to the Georgia Tech game to pick up #6. While they will probably be able to put some points on Auburn, Georgia is just 1-4 away from home this season, and Aaron Murray seemed to catch a case of stage-fright early in the Florida game that cost the Bulldogs some opportunities. It's difficult for me to imagine them showing up to play (likely) a night game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, which has become one of the wildest environments in college football this season, and pulling out the win. #6 is going to have to come at home vs. the Yellow Jackets.
Kevin: I like the confidence you guys have in the Dawgs to win 2 of their final 3. The saddest thing about Georgia's season is that their best victory is against Kentucky. They way Georgia Tech is playing the Dawgs could beat them and our best victory will still be against Kentucky. Like Chris said Georgia could go 3-0 (almost impossible) but they could also go 1-2. I think we will get bowl eligible. If we don't then it could get ugly around these parts.
Ross: Yes. They'll beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech. They'll have a realistic shot at beating Auburn, given Auburn's defensive weaknesses and Georgia's offensive firepower, but ultimately I think Cam Newton will pull out a little more magic to get them by Georgia. Georgia Tech looks eminently beatable, though.
Will Tennessee go winless in the SEC this year?
Brandon: No way. Tennessee DOESN’T lose to Vandy under any circumstances, so I think they will spring an upset on them and salvage their SEC season with at least one win.
Chris: No, as much as I would like to see it happen, the Vols will not go winless in the SEC. The Vols SHOULD beat Mississippi, although the Rebs are playing somewhat inspired football right now (even in losing their last 3 games) against murderers row in the West (Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn with the first 2 of these 3 on the road) and putting up a fight. If the Vols somehow stumble on that opportunity, there is an absolute certainty (or as close as you can get) that the Vols will wear down the Commodores of Vandy with their superior athletes. Then they will finish out the season losing to Kentucky.
J Martin: No. Tennessee is bad, but Vanderbilt is worse. The Commodores were just lucky to catch Ole Miss early enough in the development of the Jeremiah Masoli experiment to steal a win. The Vols should at least be able to spare themselves the indignity of losing to their in-state "rival." I wouldn't even count them out in their other two remaining conference games. They should be competitive. They'll be even more competitive the longer they can keep that 7th loss of their record and the bowl dream alive.
Kevin: Everybody thinks Tennessee wins one. I'm going to say they don't. Houston Nutt and his buddy Jeremiah Masoli will beat the Vols, Kentucky will beat the Vols so that leaves Vandy. Robbie Caldwell will use his expertise from working on a turkey farm and will somehow turn that into motivation for his team to beat Derek Dooley and his bunch of turkeys. Seriously, how do you not get suspended when you are in a bar fight and a dude got kicked off of the SAME team earlier this year for getting into a bar fight.
Ross: No. They'll win one of them -- probably the game at Vanderbilt.
Brandon: No. I feel that Alabama is still the team to beat in the SEC, I think the Cam Newton train comes crashing to a halt during the Iron Bowl, specifically if Auburn ever gets down by more than 10-14 Points.
Chris: Right now it's hard to bet against the Tigers. I am probably one of the last people not COMPLETELY sold on them, but I still recognize that they are an elite team. However, I will pick Alabama to knock them off in the Iron Bowl. I know that since South Carolina beat the Tide, there has been a game-plan established for how to beat them. It's not that teams haven't tried to replicate it, it's just that they haven't been able to. The Tigers will be tasked with shutting down the Tide's backfield duo, something that nobody except the Gamecocks did. I don't expect lightning to strike twice, therefore, I see the Tide coming out on top and ruining Auburn's shot at the NC game.
J Martin: I'd like to be wrong, but my gut feeling is yes. Cam Newton is playing like one of those quarterbacks I used to create to cheat in NCAA Football when I was kid. You know, Speed = 99, Acceleration = 99, Break Tackle = 99, Arm Strength = 99, etc. Just snap the ball to him and start running around. It was unstoppable. Well, life imitates art. I really don't see a scheme that can slow him down. Primarily because so much of what he does isn't based on scheme. He's at his most deadly whenever what's supposed to be happening on a given play breaks down and he just takes off. He gets into the open field and makes it a game of athlete vs. athlete, and the 6'6", 250 lb guy moving at 4.5 is going to win that more often than not. If you can stop him, you win. But the only team left on Auburn's schedule with the athletes to stop him is Alabama. And as the resident Bama expert, I have to admit I don't have a lot of faith in this bunch's ability to get the job done.
Kevin: It's taken me a long time to come around on Auburn and I still don't think I'm there yet. I just don't think they have the defense to get past Auburn. If you asked me last week I thought that if Georgia could get past Florida that they would have a good shot at Auburn. 2005 was the last time Auburn beat Georgia but I think Auburn beats the Dawgs 52 to 38 but then slips up against Bama.
Ross: No. Auburn will lose to Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but their consolation prize will be a trip to the Sugar Bowl, which isn't so bad.
Who will win the East?
Brandon: Florida. I think each team will take the other out, and they will come out on top of this whole mess.
Chris: Nobody. That's a distinct possibility at this point, right?
J Martin: Barring a fluke Gator loss to Vanderbilt, it's coming down to South Carolina @ Florida. If you asked me before this past Saturday, I would've said South Carolina without a second thought. Now, I'm leaning towards Florida. For whatever weaknesses they've shown this season, they reasserted their dominance over the SEC East by topping a Georgia team that smelled blood coming in to the game. And just as the Bulldogs couldn't take advantage of a down year for the Gators, I'm thinking Spurrier & the precocious Gamecocks will find themselves subjugated to Urban Meyer, yet again.
Kevin: It's Florida. Time To Die South Carolina! Carolina has a chance because they have Lattimore and Alshon but they also have Stephen Garcia and Steve Spurrier and I really have no confidence in that duo to beat Florida.
Ross: Easy answer: whoever wins the South Carolina-Florida game. But, seriously, even though Florida showed some offensive competence against Georgia, I still favor South Carolina slightly. They're better defensively than Georgia and they have some very potent offensive weapons of their own (Alshon Jeffery, Marcus Lattimore, Stephen Garcia). They've also already proven capable of winning a big game this year.
Can the winner of the East upset the West in the SEC Championship Game?
Brandon: This is going to sound strange, so bear with me…IF the East Champion plays Alabama I think that they can upset them, as it happened earlier this year, but if the East Champion plays Auburn, then I don’t think they would have enough.
Chris: If that team believes in voodoo and puts a million hexes on the team from the West. Oh, and those hexes have to work.
J Martin: This is the tricky part. If it's South Carolina, they can win it. They've already proven they can beat Bama, and they came within a boneheaded Spurrier QB change of possibly beating Auburn. Even if LSU were to sneak in to the title game, you'd have to like SC's odds. But if it's Florida representing the East, I say no way. We already know the Gators don't belong on the same field as Alabama right now. And it's difficult to imagine Florida's scatter-shot offense keeping up with Cam Newton for 4 quarters.
Kevin: No they can't. If it's Florida they simply don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Bama or Auburn and if it's South Carolina then Bama will be out for blood and Auburn already took their best shot and will adjust.
Ross: Sure. Whoever wins the East will be a talented squad in their own right and in a winner-takes-all setting like the SEC Championship Game, anything can happen. If South Carolina emerges from the East, they'd definitely have a realistic shot at winning the game, considering that they've already defeated Alabama and took Auburn to the limit. If anyone else emerges, I'd like their chances slightly less. That said... WILL they upset the SEC West champion? No, I don't think so -- Auburn and Alabama are simply playing to too high a level right now.
Will Georgia become bowl eligible this year?
Brandon: Yes. I think they beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech.
Chris: Um...They'll beat Idaho State, get Auburn in a trap game, so an upset IS possible here for an unsung Georgia group, and a Georgia Tech team who has been too inconsistent to predict. They could go 3-0, they could go 2-1, or they could go 1-2 and miss out. I say they barely make the cut by beating Georgia Tech.
J Martin: Yes, but it'll be a nail biter. It will take the Bulldogs all the way to the Georgia Tech game to pick up #6. While they will probably be able to put some points on Auburn, Georgia is just 1-4 away from home this season, and Aaron Murray seemed to catch a case of stage-fright early in the Florida game that cost the Bulldogs some opportunities. It's difficult for me to imagine them showing up to play (likely) a night game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, which has become one of the wildest environments in college football this season, and pulling out the win. #6 is going to have to come at home vs. the Yellow Jackets.
Kevin: I like the confidence you guys have in the Dawgs to win 2 of their final 3. The saddest thing about Georgia's season is that their best victory is against Kentucky. They way Georgia Tech is playing the Dawgs could beat them and our best victory will still be against Kentucky. Like Chris said Georgia could go 3-0 (almost impossible) but they could also go 1-2. I think we will get bowl eligible. If we don't then it could get ugly around these parts.
Ross: Yes. They'll beat Idaho State and Georgia Tech. They'll have a realistic shot at beating Auburn, given Auburn's defensive weaknesses and Georgia's offensive firepower, but ultimately I think Cam Newton will pull out a little more magic to get them by Georgia. Georgia Tech looks eminently beatable, though.
Will Tennessee go winless in the SEC this year?
Brandon: No way. Tennessee DOESN’T lose to Vandy under any circumstances, so I think they will spring an upset on them and salvage their SEC season with at least one win.
Chris: No, as much as I would like to see it happen, the Vols will not go winless in the SEC. The Vols SHOULD beat Mississippi, although the Rebs are playing somewhat inspired football right now (even in losing their last 3 games) against murderers row in the West (Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn with the first 2 of these 3 on the road) and putting up a fight. If the Vols somehow stumble on that opportunity, there is an absolute certainty (or as close as you can get) that the Vols will wear down the Commodores of Vandy with their superior athletes. Then they will finish out the season losing to Kentucky.
J Martin: No. Tennessee is bad, but Vanderbilt is worse. The Commodores were just lucky to catch Ole Miss early enough in the development of the Jeremiah Masoli experiment to steal a win. The Vols should at least be able to spare themselves the indignity of losing to their in-state "rival." I wouldn't even count them out in their other two remaining conference games. They should be competitive. They'll be even more competitive the longer they can keep that 7th loss of their record and the bowl dream alive.
Kevin: Everybody thinks Tennessee wins one. I'm going to say they don't. Houston Nutt and his buddy Jeremiah Masoli will beat the Vols, Kentucky will beat the Vols so that leaves Vandy. Robbie Caldwell will use his expertise from working on a turkey farm and will somehow turn that into motivation for his team to beat Derek Dooley and his bunch of turkeys. Seriously, how do you not get suspended when you are in a bar fight and a dude got kicked off of the SAME team earlier this year for getting into a bar fight.
Ross: No. They'll win one of them -- probably the game at Vanderbilt.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: October 7-9
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL 20-10
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2010
#7 Nebraska (4-0, 0-0) @ Kansas State (4-0, 1-0) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Two straight Big 12 games on Thursday night? Poor Big East; it’s not bad enough that their league is dreadful this year and can barely beat anyone outside of FCS schools – now they’re even being edged out of their traditional Thursday night showcase game. Last week’s Thursday night Big 12 game between Oklahoma State and Texas A&M turned into a wild shootout; don’t expect aerial pyrotechnics like that this week. Kansas State and Nebraska both want to grind things out on the ground. K-State features one of the nation’s best backs in Daniel Thomas, going for 157 ypg, while Nebraska counters with a hydra-like attack featuring Roy Helu (76 ypg), Rex Burkhead (76ypg), and red-hot freshman QB Taylor “T-Magic” Martinez (116ypg). There are reasons to like Kansas State – they’ve had an extra week to prepare for the Huskers, they’re at home, Nebraska struggled with South Dakota State in their last game – but probably not enough to actually pick them to win this game against a top ten-ranked Nebraska team with a salty defense. This game should go a long way in determining who wins the Big 12 North.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 24, KANSAS STATE 14
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2010
#1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0) @ #19 South Carolina (3-1, 1-1) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
Another week, another big Alabama game. Ho-hum. After needing some late-game heroics (and a Ryan Mallett meltdown) to sneak out a road win over Arkansas, Bama rebounded to throttle Florida at home last week. Now they face the third leg of their three-week gauntlet against top 20 teams, a road game against a South Carolina team that’s had two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide. The question is: will that matter? The good news for USCeast is that they’ll have a few things in their favor that Florida didn’t – a much more consistent and coherent offensive identity, homefield advantage, two weeks of preparation, and a Bama team that may be a bit beaten down from their exertions over the past two weeks. The bad news is that Bama’s also been getting better, game by game, especially on defense. The Tide’s biggest weakness is/was their pass defense, which Mallett shredded (until the end, at least), but USCeast is ill-suited to exploit that advantage with the inconsistent Stephen Garcia flinging the ball. Alabama’s reaching “pick against them at your peril” status right now, much like USC in 2003-2005 or Miami in 2000-2002. I’m not going to buck that trend this week. On the other hand, given Florida’s obvious issues this season, this game may be a prelude to a USCeast-Bama rematch in the SEC title game. Of course, my pick in that game will probably be the same as my pick in this game…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 27, SOUTH CAROLINA 20
#17 Michigan State (5-0, 1-0) @ #18 Michigan (5-0, 1-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)
This year's Battle of Michigan could be the best installment in a while -- and that's saying something when six of the past seven encounters have been decided by a touchdown or less. But both teams enter this game on a high, as undefeated 5-0 squads with potent offenses. Michigan has, of course, been The Denard Robinson Show all season -- but lordy, lordy what a freaking show it's been. Robinson's been an absolute magician to watch thus far, slicing through defenses on the ground (and through the air) and producing a bushel of jaw-dropping highlight reel plays every week. On the other hand, Michigan hasn't exactly been playing a murderer's row of defenses thus far -- and while Michigan State has some issues on defense (particularly in the secondary), they do have some legit all-conference talent in their ranks and the going should be a bit tougher against the likes of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon. Not to mention that Michigan State has some of the most savage big-hitters in the league on defense; Denard Robinson has already proven to be a bit fragile (he's missed at least a few plays in every game this season), so Michigan could be in serious trouble if Sparty is able to bludgeon him a few times and put him out of commission. On the offensive side of the ball, Sparty has been one of the most balanced teams in the nation, with an explosive pair of running backs in Edwin Baker (75-536-5), and Le'Veon Bell (64-471-7) and (in the last two weeks) a resurgent passing offense under Kirk Cousins (81/120, 1132 yards, 9/4 TD/INT). MSU's best defense against The Fightin' Denards may be to simply deny him the ball and with an offense like that (and against a defense as porous as Michigan's), they may be able to do just that. It's hard to bet against Robinson pulling yet another phenomenal spectacle out of his bag of tricks, but Sparty really does seem well-suited to pull the curtains on The Denard Show for a week.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, MICHIGAN 31
#12 LSU (5-0, 3-0) @ #14 Florida (4-1, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
This game should be a fascinating one to watch, especially if you like watching bad football. Between Les Miles’ chronic clock management blunders, the continuing incompetence of the LSU offense, and Florida’s own incompetence on offense, this one should be an uglyball masterpiece. If you like dropped passes, turnovers, and tackles for loss, make this your game of the weekend because it’s probably going to set offensive football back a few decades. Florida has the benefit of homefield, but LSU may have the better defense (they certainly have the best defensive player on the field in CB Patrick Peterson, a complete stud). You wouldn’t think that Les Miles’ perverse luck could continue, but sometimes you just have to ride a crazy hand and see where it takes you. Florida has provided little reason to have faith in them, either.
THE PICK: LSU 13, FLORIDA 9
#23 Florida State (4-1, 2-0) @ #13 Miami (3-1, 1-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
The ACC’s marquee rivalry is renewed once again, this time with both teams ranked, something of a rarity in the recent days of this rivalry. Both teams have highly touted quarterbacks in Christian Ponder (FSU) and Jacory Harris (Miami), but neither guy has been too spectacular thus far this season (Ponder: 78/129, 844 yards, 8/3 TD/INT; Harris: 68/119, 895 yards, 10/8 TD/INT). Both teams also suffered humbling road defeats in big-time non-conference showdowns (FSU got thrashed by Oklahoma, while Miami was beaten down by Ohio State). Miami made a big statement by going on the road and annihilating Pitt on Thursday night a few weeks ago, while Florida State has quietly been beating up on the usual ACC dregs (Wake Forest, Virginia) the past few weeks. These look like two evenly-matched squads on the offensive side of the ball -- but Miami appears to have a significant advantage on defense. That would be reason enough to pick them -- if not for the fact that Harris is an enormous wildcard in this matchup. Harris has thrown eight interceptions already this season, the fifth-worst total in the nation -- and it's even worse when you consider that the guys who have thrown as many or more interceptions have also thrown 50-85 more passes than Harris. He's throwing an interception every 15 passes -- which is not good. If he does that against FSU, Miami may suffer. If he can protect the ball, their defense should be able to slow down Florida State enough for Miami to prevail. Against my better judgment, I'll bet on that to happen.
THE PICK: MIAMI 24, FLORIDA STATE 20
USC (4-1, 1-1) @ #16 Stanford (4-1, 1-1) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
A year ago, Stanford's destruction of USC ranked as one of the most shocking results of the season (well, at least until we found out that USC was no longer the USC of old). Now, it's practically expected -- oh, how things can change dramatically in the span of a year. Despite opening the year 4-0 USC looked just as shaky as they were a year ago -- and their upset loss to Washington last week did nothing to alter those concerns. After cruising through the early part of the year, Stanford opened up an early lead on Oregon a week ago... and then watched the bottom drop out as the quick-strike Oregon offense exploded. But Oregon is going to do that to a ton of teams this year and USC is better matchup for Stanford than Oregon, frankly. USC still has some better talent at a few positions (WR, RB, maybe DL), but Stanford has the advantage at QB -- and is there anyone who wouldn't trust Harbaugh to coach circles around Kiffin at this point?
THE PICK: STANFORD 35, USC 27
LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL 20-10
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2010
#7 Nebraska (4-0, 0-0) @ Kansas State (4-0, 1-0) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Two straight Big 12 games on Thursday night? Poor Big East; it’s not bad enough that their league is dreadful this year and can barely beat anyone outside of FCS schools – now they’re even being edged out of their traditional Thursday night showcase game. Last week’s Thursday night Big 12 game between Oklahoma State and Texas A&M turned into a wild shootout; don’t expect aerial pyrotechnics like that this week. Kansas State and Nebraska both want to grind things out on the ground. K-State features one of the nation’s best backs in Daniel Thomas, going for 157 ypg, while Nebraska counters with a hydra-like attack featuring Roy Helu (76 ypg), Rex Burkhead (76ypg), and red-hot freshman QB Taylor “T-Magic” Martinez (116ypg). There are reasons to like Kansas State – they’ve had an extra week to prepare for the Huskers, they’re at home, Nebraska struggled with South Dakota State in their last game – but probably not enough to actually pick them to win this game against a top ten-ranked Nebraska team with a salty defense. This game should go a long way in determining who wins the Big 12 North.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA 24, KANSAS STATE 14
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2010
#1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0) @ #19 South Carolina (3-1, 1-1) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
Another week, another big Alabama game. Ho-hum. After needing some late-game heroics (and a Ryan Mallett meltdown) to sneak out a road win over Arkansas, Bama rebounded to throttle Florida at home last week. Now they face the third leg of their three-week gauntlet against top 20 teams, a road game against a South Carolina team that’s had two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide. The question is: will that matter? The good news for USCeast is that they’ll have a few things in their favor that Florida didn’t – a much more consistent and coherent offensive identity, homefield advantage, two weeks of preparation, and a Bama team that may be a bit beaten down from their exertions over the past two weeks. The bad news is that Bama’s also been getting better, game by game, especially on defense. The Tide’s biggest weakness is/was their pass defense, which Mallett shredded (until the end, at least), but USCeast is ill-suited to exploit that advantage with the inconsistent Stephen Garcia flinging the ball. Alabama’s reaching “pick against them at your peril” status right now, much like USC in 2003-2005 or Miami in 2000-2002. I’m not going to buck that trend this week. On the other hand, given Florida’s obvious issues this season, this game may be a prelude to a USCeast-Bama rematch in the SEC title game. Of course, my pick in that game will probably be the same as my pick in this game…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 27, SOUTH CAROLINA 20
#17 Michigan State (5-0, 1-0) @ #18 Michigan (5-0, 1-0) (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)
This year's Battle of Michigan could be the best installment in a while -- and that's saying something when six of the past seven encounters have been decided by a touchdown or less. But both teams enter this game on a high, as undefeated 5-0 squads with potent offenses. Michigan has, of course, been The Denard Robinson Show all season -- but lordy, lordy what a freaking show it's been. Robinson's been an absolute magician to watch thus far, slicing through defenses on the ground (and through the air) and producing a bushel of jaw-dropping highlight reel plays every week. On the other hand, Michigan hasn't exactly been playing a murderer's row of defenses thus far -- and while Michigan State has some issues on defense (particularly in the secondary), they do have some legit all-conference talent in their ranks and the going should be a bit tougher against the likes of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon. Not to mention that Michigan State has some of the most savage big-hitters in the league on defense; Denard Robinson has already proven to be a bit fragile (he's missed at least a few plays in every game this season), so Michigan could be in serious trouble if Sparty is able to bludgeon him a few times and put him out of commission. On the offensive side of the ball, Sparty has been one of the most balanced teams in the nation, with an explosive pair of running backs in Edwin Baker (75-536-5), and Le'Veon Bell (64-471-7) and (in the last two weeks) a resurgent passing offense under Kirk Cousins (81/120, 1132 yards, 9/4 TD/INT). MSU's best defense against The Fightin' Denards may be to simply deny him the ball and with an offense like that (and against a defense as porous as Michigan's), they may be able to do just that. It's hard to bet against Robinson pulling yet another phenomenal spectacle out of his bag of tricks, but Sparty really does seem well-suited to pull the curtains on The Denard Show for a week.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 34, MICHIGAN 31
#12 LSU (5-0, 3-0) @ #14 Florida (4-1, 2-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
This game should be a fascinating one to watch, especially if you like watching bad football. Between Les Miles’ chronic clock management blunders, the continuing incompetence of the LSU offense, and Florida’s own incompetence on offense, this one should be an uglyball masterpiece. If you like dropped passes, turnovers, and tackles for loss, make this your game of the weekend because it’s probably going to set offensive football back a few decades. Florida has the benefit of homefield, but LSU may have the better defense (they certainly have the best defensive player on the field in CB Patrick Peterson, a complete stud). You wouldn’t think that Les Miles’ perverse luck could continue, but sometimes you just have to ride a crazy hand and see where it takes you. Florida has provided little reason to have faith in them, either.
THE PICK: LSU 13, FLORIDA 9
#23 Florida State (4-1, 2-0) @ #13 Miami (3-1, 1-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
The ACC’s marquee rivalry is renewed once again, this time with both teams ranked, something of a rarity in the recent days of this rivalry. Both teams have highly touted quarterbacks in Christian Ponder (FSU) and Jacory Harris (Miami), but neither guy has been too spectacular thus far this season (Ponder: 78/129, 844 yards, 8/3 TD/INT; Harris: 68/119, 895 yards, 10/8 TD/INT). Both teams also suffered humbling road defeats in big-time non-conference showdowns (FSU got thrashed by Oklahoma, while Miami was beaten down by Ohio State). Miami made a big statement by going on the road and annihilating Pitt on Thursday night a few weeks ago, while Florida State has quietly been beating up on the usual ACC dregs (Wake Forest, Virginia) the past few weeks. These look like two evenly-matched squads on the offensive side of the ball -- but Miami appears to have a significant advantage on defense. That would be reason enough to pick them -- if not for the fact that Harris is an enormous wildcard in this matchup. Harris has thrown eight interceptions already this season, the fifth-worst total in the nation -- and it's even worse when you consider that the guys who have thrown as many or more interceptions have also thrown 50-85 more passes than Harris. He's throwing an interception every 15 passes -- which is not good. If he does that against FSU, Miami may suffer. If he can protect the ball, their defense should be able to slow down Florida State enough for Miami to prevail. Against my better judgment, I'll bet on that to happen.
THE PICK: MIAMI 24, FLORIDA STATE 20
USC (4-1, 1-1) @ #16 Stanford (4-1, 1-1) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
A year ago, Stanford's destruction of USC ranked as one of the most shocking results of the season (well, at least until we found out that USC was no longer the USC of old). Now, it's practically expected -- oh, how things can change dramatically in the span of a year. Despite opening the year 4-0 USC looked just as shaky as they were a year ago -- and their upset loss to Washington last week did nothing to alter those concerns. After cruising through the early part of the year, Stanford opened up an early lead on Oregon a week ago... and then watched the bottom drop out as the quick-strike Oregon offense exploded. But Oregon is going to do that to a ton of teams this year and USC is better matchup for Stanford than Oregon, frankly. USC still has some better talent at a few positions (WR, RB, maybe DL), but Stanford has the advantage at QB -- and is there anyone who wouldn't trust Harbaugh to coach circles around Kiffin at this point?
THE PICK: STANFORD 35, USC 27
Thursday, September 23, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 23-25
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 5-1
OVERALL: 12-6
#19 Miami (1-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Both teams have been off since 9/11/10, so they should be well-rested and well-prepared for this game, which pits two former Big East rivals against one another, both of whom could really use an impressive win to regain some of their season's lost momentum. Miami's had two weeks to stew over a loss to Ohio State in which any chance they might have had at springing the upset was killed by Jacory Harris' four interceptions, while Pittsburgh hasn’t played an opponent with a pulse since their opening night stumble at Utah. (They beat New Hampshire two weeks ago.) In a battle of two coaches who recruit well but frequently struggle on game day, I’d usually say go with the guy with the better talent on hand (which seems like Miami, by a hair). On the other hand, it’s not often wise to bet against the home underdog on Thursday night, so I’ll grudgingly side with the Wannstache in this one.
THE PICK: PITT 27, MIAMI 21
#1 Alabama (3-0) @ #10 Arkansas (3-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
The season’s second all-top ten clash (after the Boise State-Virginia Tech thriller in week one) was one of the more anticipated games of the SEC slate before the season began and even before Arkansas seemed likely to be ranked in the top ten, owing to Arkansas’ status as the sexy dark horse pick in the SEC. After nearly toppling Florida last year and having a solid season, Arkansas was expected to be a major threat this year with nearly all of their offensive firepower back, an improved defense, and, in this game a match-up advantage (Ryan Mallett and Arkansas’ high-powered passing offense versus Alabama’s inexperienced secondary), and homefield. On the other hand, Alabama has cruised through the opening three weeks with nary a speedbump, even without the services of two of their best players, RB Mark Ingram and DT/DT Marcell Dareus for the opening two games. They both returned last week and Alabama obliterated Duke, 62-13. They are scary good – again. Still, even the best teams are going to have tough games and this looks like one of Alabama’s toughest games of the year. It’s also the beginning of a brutal three-game stretch that sees road trips to Arkansas and South Carolina bookended around a home game against Florida. Then again, with Saban in charge, their eyes should be firmly on the obstacle in front of them, which is Arkansas and Mallett. And it’s tough to pick against the defending champs when they’re playing so lights-out. So as much as I want to go for the upset…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, ARKANSAS 28
#12 South Carolina (3-0) @ #17 Auburn (3-0) (7:45pm EST, ESPN)
There are few things stranger than watching architect of the Fun-n-Gun offense that revolutionized the passing game in the SEC become a disciple of the cro-mag football that’s long characterized the Big Ten, but then again running backs like Marcus Lattimore don’t come along every day, so even a passing guru like Steve Spurrier knows when to ride that horse as long as possible. Granted, it’s not like Spurrier’s been allergic to the running game in the past (even at Florida he churned out quality tailbacks like some guy by the name of Emmitt Smith) and if Stephen Garcia was your main option at quarterback, it’s easy to see why pounding away on the ground seems a little more palatable… but still: kinda weird. Meanwhile, Gene Chizik’s Auburn squad has its own freshman stud running back in Michael Dyer, although he’s only the third most prolific runner on this team, behind QB Cameron Newton and fellow RB Ontero McCalebb. Newton continues to be a work in progress in the passing game, but he’s a definite threat on the ground. With two powerful running games and two nasty, hard-hitting defenses (the Auburn-Clemson game a week ago seemed to feature a game-stopping injury every third play), this one should be the kind of game Bo and Woody would have enjoyed, even if it is dressed up in SEC colors. Auburn has the homefield edge, but they’ve looked like the shakier side so far and it’s hard to shake the feeling that this could finally be the year that South Carolina breaks through.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 17, AUBURN 13
#24 Oregon State (1-1) @ #3 Boise State (3-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
For the first time ever, College GameDay’s headed to Boise to party on the Smurf Turf as Boise State continues their inexorable march to, at the very least, a third BCS bowl appearance in the last five years – and perhaps even a BCS Championship Game appearance if a few things can break their way. Oregon State represents the last chance for one of the power conferences to derail the Broncos before they can crash the big boy party; all they have to do is accomplish the nigh-impossible: beat Boise on that aforementioned Smurf Turf. You could count the number of games Boise has lost on their home field in recent years on one hand, even if that one hand was a stump. They basically never, ever lose there. Oregon State gave TCU a run in the opener, but they struggled to put away a middling Louisville team traveling thousands of miles to Corvalis, OR last week; maybe they were just looking ahead to their big showdown with Boise, but it doesn’t breed much confidence. Meanwhile, Boise rebounded from seeing their national spotlight win over Virginia Tech lose almost all of its luster after the Hokies got knocked off by James Madison by turning around and curbstomping Wyoming last week. They seem pretty focused on doing what they need to do, which is just beating everyone in front of them. If this game was anywhere but Boise, I would give Oregon State a slight chance at the upset. But in Boise? Not happening.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE 37, OREGON STATE 24
#22 West Virginia (3-0) @ #15 LSU (3-0) (9:00pm EST, ESPN2)
Can ESPN just air three hours of these two fanbases tailgating and hanging out before the game? That’s almost guaranteed to be more interesting than whatever these two winning-but-flawed football teams do on the field, given how passionate (read: totally goddamn insane) their fans are. I would not want to be a cop in Baton Rouge on Saturday night. Anyway, the game. LSU enters the game as the sole team in the FBS who’s managed to record three wins over fellow BCS teams; sure those three teams were SEC bottomfeeders Vanderbilt and Mississippi State and a hugely depleted North Carolina team, but hey: wins over teams that aren’t just there to collect a fat paycheck are nothing to sniff about at this stage of the season. After inexplicably giving up a career day to North Carolina’s TJ Yates, the LSU defense has buckled down considerably, holding Vandy and MSU to a combined 10 points and roughly 400 yards of total offense. Which is good because the LSU offense has looked a mite sluggish; they needed big second halves to break open both games. West Virginia’s 3-0 mark contains two wins over FBS competition, but they haven’t looked hugely impressive in doing so; they needed a quasi-miraculous comeback to get by in-state rivals Marshall two weeks ago and they let Maryland hang around for a good chunk of the game a week ago. Geno Smith is emerging as a solid quarterback (71/101, 800 yards, 7/1 TD/INT), but he hasn’t faced a defense nearly as brutal as LSU’s, nor a cornerback as impenetrable as Patrick Peterson, and while Noel Devine is slippery, busting off runs against CUSA and ACC defenses is one thing; doing it against one of the SEC’s best is another. And picking against LSU in Death Valley at night? You must be crazy.
THE PICK: LSU 27, WEST VIRGINIA 14
Cal (2-1) @ #14 Arizona (3-0) (10:00pm EST, FSN)
Arizona is the team of the moment, and justifiably so after picking up one of the young season's signature wins in knocking off a top-ten team in Iowa. But the college football season is a marathon, not a sprint; it's one thing to get amped up for one big night game on national TV, against an opponent that your coach has history with and that you wanted to beat to avenge a loss from last fall -- it's another thing entirely to be able to maintain that level of focus and passion throughout eight, nine, or ten more games. Arizona was well-coached and well-prepared for their game with Iowa and executed their gameplan very well... but 18-22 year olds can't (and won't) execute at that level, week in and week out. So the trick becomes winning when you aren't at your best. And a week after such a big win, after spending all week reading stories about how great they are and how they've shed the "mediocre" or "underachiever" labels that have dogged them in the past, it would be an absolute stunner if there wasn't a little bit of a hangover there. On the flipside, Cal's coming off one of the most humiliating losses of Jeff Tedford's tenure, a game in which their defense got utterly destroyed by Nevada's Colin Kaepernick. But they're not as bad as they looked in that game and they have the talent to give Arizona some troubles if their heads aren't totally in the game. On the other hand, the home team has won five straight in this series...
THE PICK: ARIZONA 34, CAL 30
LAST WEEK: 5-1
OVERALL: 12-6
#19 Miami (1-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Both teams have been off since 9/11/10, so they should be well-rested and well-prepared for this game, which pits two former Big East rivals against one another, both of whom could really use an impressive win to regain some of their season's lost momentum. Miami's had two weeks to stew over a loss to Ohio State in which any chance they might have had at springing the upset was killed by Jacory Harris' four interceptions, while Pittsburgh hasn’t played an opponent with a pulse since their opening night stumble at Utah. (They beat New Hampshire two weeks ago.) In a battle of two coaches who recruit well but frequently struggle on game day, I’d usually say go with the guy with the better talent on hand (which seems like Miami, by a hair). On the other hand, it’s not often wise to bet against the home underdog on Thursday night, so I’ll grudgingly side with the Wannstache in this one.
THE PICK: PITT 27, MIAMI 21
#1 Alabama (3-0) @ #10 Arkansas (3-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
The season’s second all-top ten clash (after the Boise State-Virginia Tech thriller in week one) was one of the more anticipated games of the SEC slate before the season began and even before Arkansas seemed likely to be ranked in the top ten, owing to Arkansas’ status as the sexy dark horse pick in the SEC. After nearly toppling Florida last year and having a solid season, Arkansas was expected to be a major threat this year with nearly all of their offensive firepower back, an improved defense, and, in this game a match-up advantage (Ryan Mallett and Arkansas’ high-powered passing offense versus Alabama’s inexperienced secondary), and homefield. On the other hand, Alabama has cruised through the opening three weeks with nary a speedbump, even without the services of two of their best players, RB Mark Ingram and DT/DT Marcell Dareus for the opening two games. They both returned last week and Alabama obliterated Duke, 62-13. They are scary good – again. Still, even the best teams are going to have tough games and this looks like one of Alabama’s toughest games of the year. It’s also the beginning of a brutal three-game stretch that sees road trips to Arkansas and South Carolina bookended around a home game against Florida. Then again, with Saban in charge, their eyes should be firmly on the obstacle in front of them, which is Arkansas and Mallett. And it’s tough to pick against the defending champs when they’re playing so lights-out. So as much as I want to go for the upset…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, ARKANSAS 28
#12 South Carolina (3-0) @ #17 Auburn (3-0) (7:45pm EST, ESPN)
There are few things stranger than watching architect of the Fun-n-Gun offense that revolutionized the passing game in the SEC become a disciple of the cro-mag football that’s long characterized the Big Ten, but then again running backs like Marcus Lattimore don’t come along every day, so even a passing guru like Steve Spurrier knows when to ride that horse as long as possible. Granted, it’s not like Spurrier’s been allergic to the running game in the past (even at Florida he churned out quality tailbacks like some guy by the name of Emmitt Smith) and if Stephen Garcia was your main option at quarterback, it’s easy to see why pounding away on the ground seems a little more palatable… but still: kinda weird. Meanwhile, Gene Chizik’s Auburn squad has its own freshman stud running back in Michael Dyer, although he’s only the third most prolific runner on this team, behind QB Cameron Newton and fellow RB Ontero McCalebb. Newton continues to be a work in progress in the passing game, but he’s a definite threat on the ground. With two powerful running games and two nasty, hard-hitting defenses (the Auburn-Clemson game a week ago seemed to feature a game-stopping injury every third play), this one should be the kind of game Bo and Woody would have enjoyed, even if it is dressed up in SEC colors. Auburn has the homefield edge, but they’ve looked like the shakier side so far and it’s hard to shake the feeling that this could finally be the year that South Carolina breaks through.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 17, AUBURN 13
#24 Oregon State (1-1) @ #3 Boise State (3-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
For the first time ever, College GameDay’s headed to Boise to party on the Smurf Turf as Boise State continues their inexorable march to, at the very least, a third BCS bowl appearance in the last five years – and perhaps even a BCS Championship Game appearance if a few things can break their way. Oregon State represents the last chance for one of the power conferences to derail the Broncos before they can crash the big boy party; all they have to do is accomplish the nigh-impossible: beat Boise on that aforementioned Smurf Turf. You could count the number of games Boise has lost on their home field in recent years on one hand, even if that one hand was a stump. They basically never, ever lose there. Oregon State gave TCU a run in the opener, but they struggled to put away a middling Louisville team traveling thousands of miles to Corvalis, OR last week; maybe they were just looking ahead to their big showdown with Boise, but it doesn’t breed much confidence. Meanwhile, Boise rebounded from seeing their national spotlight win over Virginia Tech lose almost all of its luster after the Hokies got knocked off by James Madison by turning around and curbstomping Wyoming last week. They seem pretty focused on doing what they need to do, which is just beating everyone in front of them. If this game was anywhere but Boise, I would give Oregon State a slight chance at the upset. But in Boise? Not happening.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE 37, OREGON STATE 24
#22 West Virginia (3-0) @ #15 LSU (3-0) (9:00pm EST, ESPN2)
Can ESPN just air three hours of these two fanbases tailgating and hanging out before the game? That’s almost guaranteed to be more interesting than whatever these two winning-but-flawed football teams do on the field, given how passionate (read: totally goddamn insane) their fans are. I would not want to be a cop in Baton Rouge on Saturday night. Anyway, the game. LSU enters the game as the sole team in the FBS who’s managed to record three wins over fellow BCS teams; sure those three teams were SEC bottomfeeders Vanderbilt and Mississippi State and a hugely depleted North Carolina team, but hey: wins over teams that aren’t just there to collect a fat paycheck are nothing to sniff about at this stage of the season. After inexplicably giving up a career day to North Carolina’s TJ Yates, the LSU defense has buckled down considerably, holding Vandy and MSU to a combined 10 points and roughly 400 yards of total offense. Which is good because the LSU offense has looked a mite sluggish; they needed big second halves to break open both games. West Virginia’s 3-0 mark contains two wins over FBS competition, but they haven’t looked hugely impressive in doing so; they needed a quasi-miraculous comeback to get by in-state rivals Marshall two weeks ago and they let Maryland hang around for a good chunk of the game a week ago. Geno Smith is emerging as a solid quarterback (71/101, 800 yards, 7/1 TD/INT), but he hasn’t faced a defense nearly as brutal as LSU’s, nor a cornerback as impenetrable as Patrick Peterson, and while Noel Devine is slippery, busting off runs against CUSA and ACC defenses is one thing; doing it against one of the SEC’s best is another. And picking against LSU in Death Valley at night? You must be crazy.
THE PICK: LSU 27, WEST VIRGINIA 14
Cal (2-1) @ #14 Arizona (3-0) (10:00pm EST, FSN)
Arizona is the team of the moment, and justifiably so after picking up one of the young season's signature wins in knocking off a top-ten team in Iowa. But the college football season is a marathon, not a sprint; it's one thing to get amped up for one big night game on national TV, against an opponent that your coach has history with and that you wanted to beat to avenge a loss from last fall -- it's another thing entirely to be able to maintain that level of focus and passion throughout eight, nine, or ten more games. Arizona was well-coached and well-prepared for their game with Iowa and executed their gameplan very well... but 18-22 year olds can't (and won't) execute at that level, week in and week out. So the trick becomes winning when you aren't at your best. And a week after such a big win, after spending all week reading stories about how great they are and how they've shed the "mediocre" or "underachiever" labels that have dogged them in the past, it would be an absolute stunner if there wasn't a little bit of a hangover there. On the flipside, Cal's coming off one of the most humiliating losses of Jeff Tedford's tenure, a game in which their defense got utterly destroyed by Nevada's Colin Kaepernick. But they're not as bad as they looked in that game and they have the talent to give Arizona some troubles if their heads aren't totally in the game. On the other hand, the home team has won five straight in this series...
THE PICK: ARIZONA 34, CAL 30
Saturday, September 11, 2010
South Carolina/Georgia Thoughts
The Georgia Bulldogs went into Columbia this afternoon as an underdog and came up short against a surprising South Carolina running attack. From a Georgia perspective (which I will provide you now, I'm sure our Gamecocks blogger will put up some South Carolina thoughts later) this was a tough loss because I don't think we lost to a better team. That being said, I'm not going to get on here and talk about how much better Georgia is. Actually, I think the teams looked pretty evenly matched.
South Carolina dominated the football in the first half and won the time of possession battle by keeping the ball almost twice as long as Georgia. In the first half South Carolina's offensive line's new schemes really bothered the Georgia defense and the Georgia defense coupled that with some poor tackling. Hats off to Spurrier for scrapping his passing attack almost completely and dedicating his team to the run in almost a Dooley-esque way.
The second half was a different story. Georgia went into half-time and made the adjustments necessary and except for one drive giving up a FG held the South Carolina offense basically in check in the second half. The pivotal moment of the game came in the third quarter. Georgia was driving, Aaron Murray had just hit Kris Durham on a 55 yard bomb down to the Gamecocks 10 yard line. Washaun Ealey then took a hand-off and fumbled the ball on an unforced error. He was hit on the play but it didn't appear to be in the area of the ball. This was the play of the game without a doubt. In the back of mind I wonder if he would have even been in the game if Caleb King was healthy. Ealey is the better runner of the two but Caleb is usually in the game in the red zone (Caleb had 7 rushing TDs to Ealey's 3 last year). That one play just changed the entire complexion of the game. If Georgia scores a TD on that drive it's 14-12 with a decision to go for 1 or 2 on the point after. If Georgia scores a FG on that drive it's 14-9 and puts a lot of added pressure on South Carolina.
With this loss it really puts Georgia behind the game in the SEC because Georgia now has a very dangerous offensive football team coming in against the Bobby "Yellow Coward" Petrino and the Arkansas Razorbacks. Much like last year, Georgia will come into this game tested knowing more about their team and the Razorbacks will come into this game after feeding off of two patsies. Arkansas will be a dangerous team because they can put up a bunch of points and as we found out this week Georgia might struggle to find points (especially with A.J. and potentially Caleb out). Petrino should watch his back though because I heard Lawyer Milloy is going to be in Athens and is still looking for him.
Some other notes/thoughts:
- When did they change the rule in college football making it legal to hit a punt returner prior to them catching the ball?
- I remain very impressed with Aaron Murray. In his first game in the SEC, in a hostile environment, he played a good game (14 of 21 for 192 yds) and outplayed his counter-part Stephen Garcia.
- The Offensive line once again did a not-so-good job run blocking. Overall, I thought they did a solid job in pass protection (until the end of the game) but they just aren't opening up holes the size of those made by the Carolina line in the first half.
- Justin Houston is a beast. He had 2 or 3 sacks and a forced fumble. He is a force in our new defense.
- Speaking of our new defense, we really have to get bigger up front. We got pushed around today by the Carolina Oline (although we did look a lot better in the 2nd half against the run).
- I was impressed today with Kris Durham and Logan Gray but was disappointed that Tavarres King didn't make himself more of a factor in the passing game. Also, where are the TEs? I didn't watch the game closely enough to see if we are keeping them in more than not in the passing game but Orson and Aron White should be a force in the passing game and they just weren't used enough today.
- It seemed like South Carolina purposely avoided Brandon Boykin all day today (on both defense and Special Teams). Good coaching job by Spurrier but we need to do something to get him more involved in the defense and in position to make plays).
- At least the Nerds lost to Kansas. It doesn't make me happy but it's a good consolation present.
South Carolina dominated the football in the first half and won the time of possession battle by keeping the ball almost twice as long as Georgia. In the first half South Carolina's offensive line's new schemes really bothered the Georgia defense and the Georgia defense coupled that with some poor tackling. Hats off to Spurrier for scrapping his passing attack almost completely and dedicating his team to the run in almost a Dooley-esque way.
The second half was a different story. Georgia went into half-time and made the adjustments necessary and except for one drive giving up a FG held the South Carolina offense basically in check in the second half. The pivotal moment of the game came in the third quarter. Georgia was driving, Aaron Murray had just hit Kris Durham on a 55 yard bomb down to the Gamecocks 10 yard line. Washaun Ealey then took a hand-off and fumbled the ball on an unforced error. He was hit on the play but it didn't appear to be in the area of the ball. This was the play of the game without a doubt. In the back of mind I wonder if he would have even been in the game if Caleb King was healthy. Ealey is the better runner of the two but Caleb is usually in the game in the red zone (Caleb had 7 rushing TDs to Ealey's 3 last year). That one play just changed the entire complexion of the game. If Georgia scores a TD on that drive it's 14-12 with a decision to go for 1 or 2 on the point after. If Georgia scores a FG on that drive it's 14-9 and puts a lot of added pressure on South Carolina.
With this loss it really puts Georgia behind the game in the SEC because Georgia now has a very dangerous offensive football team coming in against the Bobby "Yellow Coward" Petrino and the Arkansas Razorbacks. Much like last year, Georgia will come into this game tested knowing more about their team and the Razorbacks will come into this game after feeding off of two patsies. Arkansas will be a dangerous team because they can put up a bunch of points and as we found out this week Georgia might struggle to find points (especially with A.J. and potentially Caleb out). Petrino should watch his back though because I heard Lawyer Milloy is going to be in Athens and is still looking for him.
Some other notes/thoughts:
- When did they change the rule in college football making it legal to hit a punt returner prior to them catching the ball?
- I remain very impressed with Aaron Murray. In his first game in the SEC, in a hostile environment, he played a good game (14 of 21 for 192 yds) and outplayed his counter-part Stephen Garcia.
- The Offensive line once again did a not-so-good job run blocking. Overall, I thought they did a solid job in pass protection (until the end of the game) but they just aren't opening up holes the size of those made by the Carolina line in the first half.
- Justin Houston is a beast. He had 2 or 3 sacks and a forced fumble. He is a force in our new defense.
- Speaking of our new defense, we really have to get bigger up front. We got pushed around today by the Carolina Oline (although we did look a lot better in the 2nd half against the run).
- I was impressed today with Kris Durham and Logan Gray but was disappointed that Tavarres King didn't make himself more of a factor in the passing game. Also, where are the TEs? I didn't watch the game closely enough to see if we are keeping them in more than not in the passing game but Orson and Aron White should be a force in the passing game and they just weren't used enough today.
- It seemed like South Carolina purposely avoided Brandon Boykin all day today (on both defense and Special Teams). Good coaching job by Spurrier but we need to do something to get him more involved in the defense and in position to make plays).
- At least the Nerds lost to Kansas. It doesn't make me happy but it's a good consolation present.
Georgia vs South Carolina: Keys To Victory
Georgia leads the all-time series against South Carolina 45-14-2 and has won 7 of the last 9 meetings as well as two in a row. But don't let those lopsided numbers fool you, South Carolina (especially recently) has been a tough game for the Bulldogs. Over the last 6 years the average margin of victory for Georgia is 6.5 points. Last year was a wild game that Georgia somehow won 41-37. Here are my keys to victory for the Georgia Bulldogs:
Win The Turnover Battle
Georgia's turnover issues from 2009 have been well documented. Against South Carolina last year Georgia turned the ball over 3 times and only got 1 turnover in return. It would be almost impossible to expect red-shirt freshman Aaron Murray to go into a hostile environment in his second game and not make any mistakes. Because of that I don't think Georgia has to play a perfect game, they just have to win the turnover battle. Get the ball more times then they give it. Last year Georgia only won the turnover margin battle in 3 games (Auburn, Georgia Tech and Texas A&M). An interesting side note is that both the Auburn and GT games were played without A.J. Green, like this one will, as he was injured. Against UL last week, Georgia made more interceptions (3) then they did in any single game last year. It will be very interesting to see how Todd Grantham's 3-4 defense does against the Gamecocks. Put pressure on Garcia and make him make bad decisions.
Don't Commit Stupid Penalties
Georgia ranked 106th last year in penalty yards per game with 67.5. Most of those came at times that we really didn't need a penalty. Last week Georgia did a pretty good job of not committing stupid penalties (although the offense did have back-to-back penalties on one drive that forced a punt). Georgia needs to play smart and disciplined and not give South Carolina any extra yardage. Last year in the South Carolina game Georgia committed 13 penalties for 108 yards.
Better Offensive Line Play
Despite rushing for 5.0 yards per carry last week the Offensive Line looked out of sync and wasn't creating big holes for the running backs. The most likely reason for this is that several of the offensive linemen battled injuries this fall and the unit was not able to practice together and get a good rhythm going. The offensive line will be key for Georgia in this game because the South Carolina fans will be bringing the noise so they must put that out of their minds and also make sure they are creating room for the RBs and protecting their red-shirt freshmen RBs.
Solid Play From The Receivers
With the best receiver in college football not playing in this game it makes sense that some of the Georgia receivers need to step up. Nobody needs to go out and have an "A.J. Green" moment or type of game but they need to play solid and need to make catches when the ball is thrown to them. Last week in A.J.'s absence 10 different players made receptions. Kris Durham, back from an injury last week, had the best game with 5 catches for 83 yards and 1 TD. Former QB Logan Gray made his debut at receiver by catching 2 passes including a TD from Hutson Mason on his first play as a college QB. Sophomore Marlon Brown, a former 5-Star recruit from Memphis, added two catches as did TE Orson Charles. So right there are 4 guys who have the ability to step up and make plays. Add to that TE Aron White, WR Rantavious Wooten, WR Israel Troop and CB Branden Smith and you have a talent group of guys who can make the plays Georgia needs to win. Oh yeah, I didn't mention that starter Tavarres King is back after serving his one-game suspension. King only tallied 18 receptions last year but he did so at over 20 yards per catch. This is King's chance to shine and make a name for himself.
Win The Turnover Battle
Georgia's turnover issues from 2009 have been well documented. Against South Carolina last year Georgia turned the ball over 3 times and only got 1 turnover in return. It would be almost impossible to expect red-shirt freshman Aaron Murray to go into a hostile environment in his second game and not make any mistakes. Because of that I don't think Georgia has to play a perfect game, they just have to win the turnover battle. Get the ball more times then they give it. Last year Georgia only won the turnover margin battle in 3 games (Auburn, Georgia Tech and Texas A&M). An interesting side note is that both the Auburn and GT games were played without A.J. Green, like this one will, as he was injured. Against UL last week, Georgia made more interceptions (3) then they did in any single game last year. It will be very interesting to see how Todd Grantham's 3-4 defense does against the Gamecocks. Put pressure on Garcia and make him make bad decisions.
Don't Commit Stupid Penalties
Georgia ranked 106th last year in penalty yards per game with 67.5. Most of those came at times that we really didn't need a penalty. Last week Georgia did a pretty good job of not committing stupid penalties (although the offense did have back-to-back penalties on one drive that forced a punt). Georgia needs to play smart and disciplined and not give South Carolina any extra yardage. Last year in the South Carolina game Georgia committed 13 penalties for 108 yards.
Better Offensive Line Play
Despite rushing for 5.0 yards per carry last week the Offensive Line looked out of sync and wasn't creating big holes for the running backs. The most likely reason for this is that several of the offensive linemen battled injuries this fall and the unit was not able to practice together and get a good rhythm going. The offensive line will be key for Georgia in this game because the South Carolina fans will be bringing the noise so they must put that out of their minds and also make sure they are creating room for the RBs and protecting their red-shirt freshmen RBs.
Solid Play From The Receivers
With the best receiver in college football not playing in this game it makes sense that some of the Georgia receivers need to step up. Nobody needs to go out and have an "A.J. Green" moment or type of game but they need to play solid and need to make catches when the ball is thrown to them. Last week in A.J.'s absence 10 different players made receptions. Kris Durham, back from an injury last week, had the best game with 5 catches for 83 yards and 1 TD. Former QB Logan Gray made his debut at receiver by catching 2 passes including a TD from Hutson Mason on his first play as a college QB. Sophomore Marlon Brown, a former 5-Star recruit from Memphis, added two catches as did TE Orson Charles. So right there are 4 guys who have the ability to step up and make plays. Add to that TE Aron White, WR Rantavious Wooten, WR Israel Troop and CB Branden Smith and you have a talent group of guys who can make the plays Georgia needs to win. Oh yeah, I didn't mention that starter Tavarres King is back after serving his one-game suspension. King only tallied 18 receptions last year but he did so at over 20 yards per catch. This is King's chance to shine and make a name for himself.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 9-11
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
SATURDAY, SEPT. 11
Georgia @ South Carolina (12pm EST, ESPN)
Both teams pasted non-BCS competition in Week One (South Carolina brained Southern Miss 41-13, while Georgia smoked UL-Lafayette 55-7) and their reward is... a date with each other, in a game that will put one team behind the eightball in the SEC East at the same time that most teams are still trying to sort out their depth charts. Ah, SEC scheduling... you are a fickle mistress. Of the two, South Carolina likely played the tougher opposition; Southern Miss was expected to be decent in C-USA this year, while UL-Lafayette was expected to be one of the dregs of the Sun Belt yet again. So that's probably a point in the Cocks' favor, as is the fact that the game's in Columbia. On the other hand, the Dawgs do get burgeoning star RB Washaun Ealey back from a one-game suspension and displayed the stiffer defense in week one: they held ULL to just 128 yards... and the Ragin' Cajuns lone score accounted for almost half of those yards (60). They're also expected to get all-everything WR AJ Green back. South Carolina conceded 404 yards to the Golden Eagles (although just 13 points), so they may be a bit more porous. There's also the matter of the Cocks' shuffling two quarterbacks, the inexperienced-but-talented Connor Shaw and hte mercurial-but-talented Stephen Garcia. No result in this game would really surprise me too much, but a long history of being burned by South Carolina gives the slightest of edges to Georgia.
THE PICK: GEORGIA 31, SOUTH CAROLINA 28
Michigan @ Notre Dame (330pm EST, NBC)
Ah yes, the now almost-annual "WE'RE BACK~!" Bowl between two fallen powers of the upper midwest. A year ago, Michigan used their thrilling come-from-behind win over the Domers to springboard to a 4-0 start, a national ranking, and a flurry of hosanas from sportswriters. Then the bottom fell out and they staggered to a 5-7 finish that left Rich Rodriguez planted firmly on the hot seat. They're back again this year, fresh off a triumphant 30-10 win over a seemingly-good Connecticut team that couldn't find an answer to Michigan's speed (particularly at the QB position, where Denard Robinson appears to have firmly supplanted last year's signal-caller, Tate Forcier) on defense and was happy to make plenty of errors on offense. The end result was a 30-10 win that left us oohing and aahing over Robinson's fleet feet (and better-than-expected arm), but obscured the fact that Robinson may not have much help on offense (the two running backs put up middling numbers) and the defense (particularly the terrifyingly inexperienced secondary) wasn't tested too much by UConn. Enter: Notre Dame and Brian Kelly, who knows a thing or three about high-powered offenses. The Irish rattled off a solid, but unspectacular 23-12 win over Purdue in week one, with the most notable aspect of their game being an improved running game. QB Dane Crist is still a work-in-progress, but WR Michael Floyd should give the Michigan defensive backs nightmares during film prep this week. Robinson will be a handful for the Notre Dame defense, but the Irish's balanced offense and more stable defense should give them the advantage in this one. Of course, whoever wins will be the subject of considerable fawning for the next several weeks.
THE PICK: NOTRE DAME 34, MICHIGAN 24
Florida State @ Oklahoma (330pm EST, ABC)
The first of three national championship game rematches on tap for Saturday is the least-heralded of the three, but may provide the most fireworks, given the potent offenses on display and the question marks that litter both defenses (especially in the secondary). Florida State rolled up on Samford in week one (59-6), but c'mon -- it's SAMFORD. It's only even a little notable because they failed to do that against similar teams in the dying days of the Bowden Era. The Seminoles racked up almost 500 yards (481) of offense and 59 points in the game and did so with remarkably balanced playcalling: 26 running plays and 27 pass plays. Meanwhile, Oklahoma found themselves in a dogfight with Utah State and needed a late interception to clinch a 31-24 win. Utah State's a more respectable foe than Samford, but still. The Sooner pass defense was gouged for 341 yards and a pair of touchdowns by Utah State; now they have to deal with a potential Heisman candidate in Florida State's Christian Ponder (who had an efficient, but ho hum game: 12/14, 167 yards, 4 TD/1 INT). On offense, the Sooners rode the legs of DeMarco Murray as much as humanly possible: 35 carries for 218 yards and a pair of scores. Of course, they needed to do that because Landry Jones struggled, going just 17/36 for 217 yards, two scores, and two interceptions. It's unclear if he has any decent receiving options beyond Ryan Broyles (9-142-2), which may mean that all Florida State has to do is double Broyles and Jones will crumble. The Sooners have been nigh-unbeatable at home under Bob Stoops, but that mark is going to be put to a stiff test by the Seminoles unless Oklahoma can improve dramatically over the course of this week. In a shootout, give me the better quarterback -- and that's clearly Ponder.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 38, OKLAHOMA 31
Miami @ Ohio State (340pm EST, ESPN)
Penn State-Alabama may get the primetime spotlight, but there are plenty of reasons to think that that game may not live up to the advance billing. On the other hand, Miami-Ohio State should be a true heavyweight showdown and one that confirms or denies a few widely-held beliefs about this season. What was one of the greatest games in the history of the sport almost eight years ago would have been a hideous mismatch as recently as 2-3 years ago, but with the stabilization of the Miami program, these two programs are much closer to even strength again. For Miami, a win here would be loudest signal yet that the 'Canes are back after their mid-aughts time in the wilderness; going into the Horseshoe and knocking off a national title contender like Ohio State would be an impressive feat. For Ohio State, a win here would solidify their credentials as a national title threat and prove that the Buckeyes can once again beat good teams loaded with elite athletes; that point was partially proven by their impressive win over Oregon, but from an athletic/talent standpoint, Miami bears a greater resemblance to the SEC and USC teams that have bedeviled Ohio State in recent years and a win over them would be long-awaited vindication.
The game also features two talented, but erratic, signal-callers in Terrelle Pryor and Jacory Harris, both of whom have alternated moments of brilliance with moments of head-scratching bewilderment all too often throughout their careers. The prevailing opinion seems to be that the Ohio State coaches are loosening the reins on Pryor and letting him throw the ball more, and while that's largely true, they've also only "set him free" against teams that had sub-par pass defenses (a category which also includes Oregon in last year's Rose Bowl). Against teams with stingier defenses (Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa), the Buckeye braintrust has kept Pryor under wraps to an extent and focused on controlling the game through the ground (where they can turn to talented backs Dan Herron and Brandon Saine, as well as newcomer Jammal Berry); it will be very interesting to see what approach they take on Saturday against a solid Miami defense. There's no such doubt about Harris; Miami will win or lose based on his arm... they just hope he keeps the mistakes to a minimum and slices the Ohio State secondary apart. In many ways, Miami seems like a poor matchup for Ohio State, so it's tempting to pick them, but favoring Randy Shannon over Jim Tressel is a step too far at this point.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE 21, MIAMI 17
Penn State @ Alabama (7pm EST, ESPN)
The nominal main event of the day, based on its primetime placement and the deluge of stories we'll get all week reminiscing about past encounters being Paterno and the Bear, but it might be an upset if the game itself is actually very close. Penn State brings a true freshman quarterback (Robert Bolden), a rebuilding defense, and an offense that couldn't get an All-Big Ten running back like Evan Royster untracked against the likes of Youngstown State (40 yards on 11 carries) into a night game in Tuscaloosa against the defending national champions. Gulp. To be fair, Alabama isn't playing with a full deck, either -- reigning Heisman winner Mark Ingram is expected to sit out again and Bama's latest terrormonster on the defensive line, Marcel Dareus, is serving the second game of a two-week suspension. On the other hand, they do have a much more experienced passer in Greg McElroy and a running back in Trent Richardson that may be every bit as good as Ingram. And while the defense is without Dareus, they're not short of stars (like LB Dont'a Hightower) that could make Bolden's road debut disastrous. The Bama defense seems vulnerable through the secondary and Penn State has a quality group of receivers, but it may be for naught if the offensive line can't give Bolden any protection or open up any holes for Royster to ease the pressure on Bolden. It's hard to see much joy in Paternoville after this game.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, PENN STATE 13
Oregon @ Tennessee (7pm, ESPN2)
No week two opponents beat their week one opponents as senseless as these two teams; Oregon disembowled New Mexico to the tune of 72-0, while Tennessee mauled Tennessee-Martin 50-0. That 50-0 win got the Derek Dooley Era off to a better-than-expected start, but it's difficult to see it continuing this week. Oregon has had some pratfalls in early-season road games (Boise State in 2009, Oklahoma in 2004), as well as some near-pratfalls (Mississippi State in 2003, Houston in 2005, Fresno State in 2006, Purdue in 2008) and, to be sure, Pac-10 teams not named USC have a dismal record when traveling outside of their natural timezone for a road game. A highly-regarded Cal team waltzed into Tennessee in 2006 and left bloodied and battered, 35-18... and it wasn't even really that close. But Oregon's early season road slip-ups both happened to teams that wound up going undefeated and playing in BCS bowls; even the most hardened Vol supporter might not believe this year's team could do that. Dominating Tennessee-Martin is one thing; doing the same against an Oregon team loaded with speed and a talent is something else entirely. The Vols have a few things in their favor -- the Ducks will have a young quarterback making his first road start and the in-game atmosphere should be raucous (the time difference probably won't be quite as big a factor as it would have been if the game was being played around noon or even in the afternoon) -- but it still doesn't seem like enough to make a difference here.
THE PICK: OREGON 34, TENNESSEE 17
SATURDAY, SEPT. 11
Georgia @ South Carolina (12pm EST, ESPN)
Both teams pasted non-BCS competition in Week One (South Carolina brained Southern Miss 41-13, while Georgia smoked UL-Lafayette 55-7) and their reward is... a date with each other, in a game that will put one team behind the eightball in the SEC East at the same time that most teams are still trying to sort out their depth charts. Ah, SEC scheduling... you are a fickle mistress. Of the two, South Carolina likely played the tougher opposition; Southern Miss was expected to be decent in C-USA this year, while UL-Lafayette was expected to be one of the dregs of the Sun Belt yet again. So that's probably a point in the Cocks' favor, as is the fact that the game's in Columbia. On the other hand, the Dawgs do get burgeoning star RB Washaun Ealey back from a one-game suspension and displayed the stiffer defense in week one: they held ULL to just 128 yards... and the Ragin' Cajuns lone score accounted for almost half of those yards (60). They're also expected to get all-everything WR AJ Green back. South Carolina conceded 404 yards to the Golden Eagles (although just 13 points), so they may be a bit more porous. There's also the matter of the Cocks' shuffling two quarterbacks, the inexperienced-but-talented Connor Shaw and hte mercurial-but-talented Stephen Garcia. No result in this game would really surprise me too much, but a long history of being burned by South Carolina gives the slightest of edges to Georgia.
THE PICK: GEORGIA 31, SOUTH CAROLINA 28
Michigan @ Notre Dame (330pm EST, NBC)
Ah yes, the now almost-annual "WE'RE BACK~!" Bowl between two fallen powers of the upper midwest. A year ago, Michigan used their thrilling come-from-behind win over the Domers to springboard to a 4-0 start, a national ranking, and a flurry of hosanas from sportswriters. Then the bottom fell out and they staggered to a 5-7 finish that left Rich Rodriguez planted firmly on the hot seat. They're back again this year, fresh off a triumphant 30-10 win over a seemingly-good Connecticut team that couldn't find an answer to Michigan's speed (particularly at the QB position, where Denard Robinson appears to have firmly supplanted last year's signal-caller, Tate Forcier) on defense and was happy to make plenty of errors on offense. The end result was a 30-10 win that left us oohing and aahing over Robinson's fleet feet (and better-than-expected arm), but obscured the fact that Robinson may not have much help on offense (the two running backs put up middling numbers) and the defense (particularly the terrifyingly inexperienced secondary) wasn't tested too much by UConn. Enter: Notre Dame and Brian Kelly, who knows a thing or three about high-powered offenses. The Irish rattled off a solid, but unspectacular 23-12 win over Purdue in week one, with the most notable aspect of their game being an improved running game. QB Dane Crist is still a work-in-progress, but WR Michael Floyd should give the Michigan defensive backs nightmares during film prep this week. Robinson will be a handful for the Notre Dame defense, but the Irish's balanced offense and more stable defense should give them the advantage in this one. Of course, whoever wins will be the subject of considerable fawning for the next several weeks.
THE PICK: NOTRE DAME 34, MICHIGAN 24
Florida State @ Oklahoma (330pm EST, ABC)
The first of three national championship game rematches on tap for Saturday is the least-heralded of the three, but may provide the most fireworks, given the potent offenses on display and the question marks that litter both defenses (especially in the secondary). Florida State rolled up on Samford in week one (59-6), but c'mon -- it's SAMFORD. It's only even a little notable because they failed to do that against similar teams in the dying days of the Bowden Era. The Seminoles racked up almost 500 yards (481) of offense and 59 points in the game and did so with remarkably balanced playcalling: 26 running plays and 27 pass plays. Meanwhile, Oklahoma found themselves in a dogfight with Utah State and needed a late interception to clinch a 31-24 win. Utah State's a more respectable foe than Samford, but still. The Sooner pass defense was gouged for 341 yards and a pair of touchdowns by Utah State; now they have to deal with a potential Heisman candidate in Florida State's Christian Ponder (who had an efficient, but ho hum game: 12/14, 167 yards, 4 TD/1 INT). On offense, the Sooners rode the legs of DeMarco Murray as much as humanly possible: 35 carries for 218 yards and a pair of scores. Of course, they needed to do that because Landry Jones struggled, going just 17/36 for 217 yards, two scores, and two interceptions. It's unclear if he has any decent receiving options beyond Ryan Broyles (9-142-2), which may mean that all Florida State has to do is double Broyles and Jones will crumble. The Sooners have been nigh-unbeatable at home under Bob Stoops, but that mark is going to be put to a stiff test by the Seminoles unless Oklahoma can improve dramatically over the course of this week. In a shootout, give me the better quarterback -- and that's clearly Ponder.
THE PICK: FLORIDA STATE 38, OKLAHOMA 31
Miami @ Ohio State (340pm EST, ESPN)
Penn State-Alabama may get the primetime spotlight, but there are plenty of reasons to think that that game may not live up to the advance billing. On the other hand, Miami-Ohio State should be a true heavyweight showdown and one that confirms or denies a few widely-held beliefs about this season. What was one of the greatest games in the history of the sport almost eight years ago would have been a hideous mismatch as recently as 2-3 years ago, but with the stabilization of the Miami program, these two programs are much closer to even strength again. For Miami, a win here would be loudest signal yet that the 'Canes are back after their mid-aughts time in the wilderness; going into the Horseshoe and knocking off a national title contender like Ohio State would be an impressive feat. For Ohio State, a win here would solidify their credentials as a national title threat and prove that the Buckeyes can once again beat good teams loaded with elite athletes; that point was partially proven by their impressive win over Oregon, but from an athletic/talent standpoint, Miami bears a greater resemblance to the SEC and USC teams that have bedeviled Ohio State in recent years and a win over them would be long-awaited vindication.
The game also features two talented, but erratic, signal-callers in Terrelle Pryor and Jacory Harris, both of whom have alternated moments of brilliance with moments of head-scratching bewilderment all too often throughout their careers. The prevailing opinion seems to be that the Ohio State coaches are loosening the reins on Pryor and letting him throw the ball more, and while that's largely true, they've also only "set him free" against teams that had sub-par pass defenses (a category which also includes Oregon in last year's Rose Bowl). Against teams with stingier defenses (Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa), the Buckeye braintrust has kept Pryor under wraps to an extent and focused on controlling the game through the ground (where they can turn to talented backs Dan Herron and Brandon Saine, as well as newcomer Jammal Berry); it will be very interesting to see what approach they take on Saturday against a solid Miami defense. There's no such doubt about Harris; Miami will win or lose based on his arm... they just hope he keeps the mistakes to a minimum and slices the Ohio State secondary apart. In many ways, Miami seems like a poor matchup for Ohio State, so it's tempting to pick them, but favoring Randy Shannon over Jim Tressel is a step too far at this point.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE 21, MIAMI 17
Penn State @ Alabama (7pm EST, ESPN)
The nominal main event of the day, based on its primetime placement and the deluge of stories we'll get all week reminiscing about past encounters being Paterno and the Bear, but it might be an upset if the game itself is actually very close. Penn State brings a true freshman quarterback (Robert Bolden), a rebuilding defense, and an offense that couldn't get an All-Big Ten running back like Evan Royster untracked against the likes of Youngstown State (40 yards on 11 carries) into a night game in Tuscaloosa against the defending national champions. Gulp. To be fair, Alabama isn't playing with a full deck, either -- reigning Heisman winner Mark Ingram is expected to sit out again and Bama's latest terrormonster on the defensive line, Marcel Dareus, is serving the second game of a two-week suspension. On the other hand, they do have a much more experienced passer in Greg McElroy and a running back in Trent Richardson that may be every bit as good as Ingram. And while the defense is without Dareus, they're not short of stars (like LB Dont'a Hightower) that could make Bolden's road debut disastrous. The Bama defense seems vulnerable through the secondary and Penn State has a quality group of receivers, but it may be for naught if the offensive line can't give Bolden any protection or open up any holes for Royster to ease the pressure on Bolden. It's hard to see much joy in Paternoville after this game.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, PENN STATE 13
Oregon @ Tennessee (7pm, ESPN2)
No week two opponents beat their week one opponents as senseless as these two teams; Oregon disembowled New Mexico to the tune of 72-0, while Tennessee mauled Tennessee-Martin 50-0. That 50-0 win got the Derek Dooley Era off to a better-than-expected start, but it's difficult to see it continuing this week. Oregon has had some pratfalls in early-season road games (Boise State in 2009, Oklahoma in 2004), as well as some near-pratfalls (Mississippi State in 2003, Houston in 2005, Fresno State in 2006, Purdue in 2008) and, to be sure, Pac-10 teams not named USC have a dismal record when traveling outside of their natural timezone for a road game. A highly-regarded Cal team waltzed into Tennessee in 2006 and left bloodied and battered, 35-18... and it wasn't even really that close. But Oregon's early season road slip-ups both happened to teams that wound up going undefeated and playing in BCS bowls; even the most hardened Vol supporter might not believe this year's team could do that. Dominating Tennessee-Martin is one thing; doing the same against an Oregon team loaded with speed and a talent is something else entirely. The Vols have a few things in their favor -- the Ducks will have a young quarterback making his first road start and the in-game atmosphere should be raucous (the time difference probably won't be quite as big a factor as it would have been if the game was being played around noon or even in the afternoon) -- but it still doesn't seem like enough to make a difference here.
THE PICK: OREGON 34, TENNESSEE 17
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Game Re-Cap Southern Miss @ South Carolina
Southern Mississippi @ South Carolina
9/2/10
1st Quarter
Columbia is super jacked at the start of the game, and the anticipation of carrying out the expectations this edition of the South Carolina Gamecocks. Southern Miss coming into a rowdy environment creates a lot of pressure early and holds SC to a 3 and out. Southern Miss runs a form of the spread offense and seem content with dumping the ball off to receivers on short passes and screens and the recievers have to work for their yards. This comes with some success early. The offensive line holds up to the pressure that SC brings, but a deflection of a pass over the middle ends in a Holloman interception at the SC15. South Carolina takes the ball on a long penalty filled drive, including three SC false start penalties. Marcus Lattimore had his first rush as Gamecock. The drive ends as Garcia scrambles to the 5 then takes a hit, spins into the endzone for a touchdown.
Steven Garcia 22 yard run 5:43
South Carolina 7-0
USM finds a South Carolina linebacking core falling down on the job, in letting Morris get wide open over the middle for a 55 yard gain. The drive stalls as Davis, the QB bobbles a snap and has to fall on it at the Carolina 15, and USM settles for three.
Hrapmann 33 yard FG 1:23
South Carolina 7-3
The USM pressure has started to wane, as Lattimore gets two more carries. There hasn't been too much bad in South Carolina's game but one thing that troubles me is bad clock management. Garcia is set to run a play everyone is lined up, but Garcia is confused or just plain looses track of time as the first comes to an end.
2nd Quarter
Garcia throws a ball just outside of Jefferies reach, which could have resulted in a long gain. South Carolina has a long drive thanks to a huge gift of a 3rd down holding penalty in the secondary that gives Carolina a first down. Drive ends on a Lanning FG.
Lanning 36 yard FG 11:57
South Carolina 10-3
USM goes 3 and out on two incomplete passes and a sack. Carolina takes good field position and reels off the most important play of the game. USC catches Southern Miss completely off guard with a reverse to Ace Saunders. This is the first misdirection play of the game and it goes for 52 yards to the 10. This play took the wind out of the USM sails as well as the beginning of Spurrier opening the playbook and showing the diversity contained within. This is not a vanilla offense, but there is a lot that can be done with South Carolina's personnel. The drive ends in Marcus Lattimore's first touchdown of his hopefully long and storied career.
Lattimore 3 yard run 9:48
South Carolina 17-3
USM answers with the worse offensive effort of the game. Three and out, and Carolina takes over looking to put a nail in the coffin. Carolina brings Connor Shaw into the game as a WR to block for Gilmore. South Carolina marches down for another Lattimore touchdown run.
Lattimore 7yard run 7:03
South Carolina 24-3
USM starts another drive dinking and dunking to the recievers. Davis's longest pass on the drive was 12 yards. Davis could pass Farve in many categories and if this is their offense I am willing to bet attempt and completions are two categories in that list. The drive stalls at the Carolina 19, where Hrapmann hits a field goal.
Hrapmann 36 yard FG 1:58
South Carolina 24-6
Connor Shaw comes in for his first series in college football. He is not afraid to take off if he doesn't see what he is looking for downfield. It is reminiscent of Garcia's first days at the helm. Palmer makes a great point on commentary as he notes that Shaw has composure not seen too often from Freshmen QB's. Southern Miss brings the dogs but when the pocket collapses Shaw doesn't take the sack but keeps moving upfield. Once again USC has issues with clock management, in letting the clock run out while possessing the ball at the USM 33.
Halftime
3rd Quarter
USM starts the second half with a three and out. Garcia takes the ball and barely overthrows his receiver in the end zone. Southern Miss forces Carolina to punt when a very telling penalty ensues. Southern Miss has an illegal participation penalty. This penalty shows that the coaches are not organized and the players heads are not in the game at this point. When I played on high school and the punt team was supposed to go on the field I knew it was my time to run out there because I paid attention to the game. I also knew when someone else was to go in for me. Carolina cashes in on the mistake with a Lanning field goal.
Lanning 42 yard FG 9:35
South Carolina 27-6
After another USM three and out, Carolina advances the ball with a Garcia 46 yard pass to Jeffery. Garcia makes a heads up play once at the goal line. Garcia runs and gets POPPED and shoved backwards from the goal line however as he gets hit he extends the ball into the end zone and after a review it is ruled a touchdown. It is a moment that may not be repeated against better defenses, as better defenders would see the ball and swipe it from the quarterback's grasp. As it is, its a nice way to cap off a 92 yard drive.
Garcia 3 yard run 4:43
South Carolina 34-6
Southern Miss takes the ball and drives down the field, reaching the USC28 as time expires.
4th Quarter
Southern Miss's 70 yard drive ends after VJ Floyd fumbles at the USC17, and Slaughter returns it for 54 yards. Connor Shaw comes in to lead the 29 yard drive, capped with his first TD pass to DL Moore.
Shaw 15 yard pass to Moore 11:19
South Carolina 41-6
Both teams seem to have lost life, as has the crowd. The teams are working to melt the clock. USM has two drives end on downs. Tampa Freshman Andrew Clifford comes in and throws his first pass which is intercepted. He ends the game with a -200.0 passer rating. USM's bright spot is Young who comes in and moves the ball down the field for the final score of the game.
Young 29 yard pass to Brown 1:33
South Carolina 41-13
In another slightly less important bit of clock management Southern Miss lets the clock roll on the game even as they drove to the SC10. Not fully knowing what to expect with South Carolina this was a pleasant surprise. Coming in I could see everything from dropping the game to a blowout. I know some of the result is due to USM's inept offense, which could not muster much in the way of scoring.
Player of the Game
Usually the best stat producer should go here, but the theme that ran throughout the game was where USC is going. I am giving the award to Lattimore and Shaw who come in and make big contributions, even if their numbers aren't overly impressive, in their first game.
Marcus Lattimore
14 rushes, 54 yards, 2 TD
Connor Shaw
4/5, 32 yards, 1 TD
Star Watch
Stephen Garcia
16/23, 193 yards
D. Brown
4 rec, 65 yards, 1 TD
9/2/10
1st Quarter
Columbia is super jacked at the start of the game, and the anticipation of carrying out the expectations this edition of the South Carolina Gamecocks. Southern Miss coming into a rowdy environment creates a lot of pressure early and holds SC to a 3 and out. Southern Miss runs a form of the spread offense and seem content with dumping the ball off to receivers on short passes and screens and the recievers have to work for their yards. This comes with some success early. The offensive line holds up to the pressure that SC brings, but a deflection of a pass over the middle ends in a Holloman interception at the SC15. South Carolina takes the ball on a long penalty filled drive, including three SC false start penalties. Marcus Lattimore had his first rush as Gamecock. The drive ends as Garcia scrambles to the 5 then takes a hit, spins into the endzone for a touchdown.
Steven Garcia 22 yard run 5:43
South Carolina 7-0
USM finds a South Carolina linebacking core falling down on the job, in letting Morris get wide open over the middle for a 55 yard gain. The drive stalls as Davis, the QB bobbles a snap and has to fall on it at the Carolina 15, and USM settles for three.
Hrapmann 33 yard FG 1:23
South Carolina 7-3
The USM pressure has started to wane, as Lattimore gets two more carries. There hasn't been too much bad in South Carolina's game but one thing that troubles me is bad clock management. Garcia is set to run a play everyone is lined up, but Garcia is confused or just plain looses track of time as the first comes to an end.
2nd Quarter
Garcia throws a ball just outside of Jefferies reach, which could have resulted in a long gain. South Carolina has a long drive thanks to a huge gift of a 3rd down holding penalty in the secondary that gives Carolina a first down. Drive ends on a Lanning FG.
Lanning 36 yard FG 11:57
South Carolina 10-3
USM goes 3 and out on two incomplete passes and a sack. Carolina takes good field position and reels off the most important play of the game. USC catches Southern Miss completely off guard with a reverse to Ace Saunders. This is the first misdirection play of the game and it goes for 52 yards to the 10. This play took the wind out of the USM sails as well as the beginning of Spurrier opening the playbook and showing the diversity contained within. This is not a vanilla offense, but there is a lot that can be done with South Carolina's personnel. The drive ends in Marcus Lattimore's first touchdown of his hopefully long and storied career.
Lattimore 3 yard run 9:48
South Carolina 17-3
USM answers with the worse offensive effort of the game. Three and out, and Carolina takes over looking to put a nail in the coffin. Carolina brings Connor Shaw into the game as a WR to block for Gilmore. South Carolina marches down for another Lattimore touchdown run.
Lattimore 7yard run 7:03
South Carolina 24-3
USM starts another drive dinking and dunking to the recievers. Davis's longest pass on the drive was 12 yards. Davis could pass Farve in many categories and if this is their offense I am willing to bet attempt and completions are two categories in that list. The drive stalls at the Carolina 19, where Hrapmann hits a field goal.
Hrapmann 36 yard FG 1:58
South Carolina 24-6
Connor Shaw comes in for his first series in college football. He is not afraid to take off if he doesn't see what he is looking for downfield. It is reminiscent of Garcia's first days at the helm. Palmer makes a great point on commentary as he notes that Shaw has composure not seen too often from Freshmen QB's. Southern Miss brings the dogs but when the pocket collapses Shaw doesn't take the sack but keeps moving upfield. Once again USC has issues with clock management, in letting the clock run out while possessing the ball at the USM 33.
Halftime
3rd Quarter
USM starts the second half with a three and out. Garcia takes the ball and barely overthrows his receiver in the end zone. Southern Miss forces Carolina to punt when a very telling penalty ensues. Southern Miss has an illegal participation penalty. This penalty shows that the coaches are not organized and the players heads are not in the game at this point. When I played on high school and the punt team was supposed to go on the field I knew it was my time to run out there because I paid attention to the game. I also knew when someone else was to go in for me. Carolina cashes in on the mistake with a Lanning field goal.
Lanning 42 yard FG 9:35
South Carolina 27-6
After another USM three and out, Carolina advances the ball with a Garcia 46 yard pass to Jeffery. Garcia makes a heads up play once at the goal line. Garcia runs and gets POPPED and shoved backwards from the goal line however as he gets hit he extends the ball into the end zone and after a review it is ruled a touchdown. It is a moment that may not be repeated against better defenses, as better defenders would see the ball and swipe it from the quarterback's grasp. As it is, its a nice way to cap off a 92 yard drive.
Garcia 3 yard run 4:43
South Carolina 34-6
Southern Miss takes the ball and drives down the field, reaching the USC28 as time expires.
4th Quarter
Southern Miss's 70 yard drive ends after VJ Floyd fumbles at the USC17, and Slaughter returns it for 54 yards. Connor Shaw comes in to lead the 29 yard drive, capped with his first TD pass to DL Moore.
Shaw 15 yard pass to Moore 11:19
South Carolina 41-6
Both teams seem to have lost life, as has the crowd. The teams are working to melt the clock. USM has two drives end on downs. Tampa Freshman Andrew Clifford comes in and throws his first pass which is intercepted. He ends the game with a -200.0 passer rating. USM's bright spot is Young who comes in and moves the ball down the field for the final score of the game.
Young 29 yard pass to Brown 1:33
South Carolina 41-13
In another slightly less important bit of clock management Southern Miss lets the clock roll on the game even as they drove to the SC10. Not fully knowing what to expect with South Carolina this was a pleasant surprise. Coming in I could see everything from dropping the game to a blowout. I know some of the result is due to USM's inept offense, which could not muster much in the way of scoring.
Player of the Game
Usually the best stat producer should go here, but the theme that ran throughout the game was where USC is going. I am giving the award to Lattimore and Shaw who come in and make big contributions, even if their numbers aren't overly impressive, in their first game.
Marcus Lattimore
14 rushes, 54 yards, 2 TD
Connor Shaw
4/5, 32 yards, 1 TD
Star Watch
Stephen Garcia
16/23, 193 yards
D. Brown
4 rec, 65 yards, 1 TD
Sunday, August 29, 2010
SEC Preview
2009 Standings
East
Florida Gators 13-1 (8-0)
Georgia Bulldogs 8-5 (4-4)
Tennessee Volunteers 7-6 (4-4)
Kentucky Wildcats 7-6 (3-5)
South Carolina Gamecocks 7-6 (3-5)
Vanderbilt Commodores 2-10 (0-8)
West
Alabama Crimson Tide 14-0 (8-0)
LSU Tigers 9-4 (5-3)
Mississippi Rebels 9-4 (4-4)
Arkansas Razorbacks 8-5 (3-5)
Auburn Tigers 8-5 (3-5)
Mississippi State 5-7 (3-5)
SEC Championship Game: Alabama 32 Florida 13
Returning Leaders: Passing
Ryan Mallet, Arkansas, Jr (225 of 403 for 3624, 30 TD, 7 INT)
Stephen Garcia, SC, Jr (239 of 432 for 2862, 17 TD, 10 INT)
Greg McElroy, Alabama, Sr (198 of 325 for 2508, 17 TD, 4 INT)
Jordan Jefferson, LSU, Jr (182 for 296 for 2166, 17 TD, 7 INT)
Returning Leaders: Rushing
Mark Ingram, Alabama, Jr (271 carries for 1658 yds, 17 TD)
Derrick Locke, Kentucky, Sr (196 carries for 908 yds, 6 TD)
Warren Norman, Vandy, Soph (145 carries for 784 yds, 3 TD)
Trent Richardson, Alabama, Soph (144 carries for 749 yds, 8 TD)
Jeff Demps, Florida, Jr (99 carries for 745 yds, 7 TD)
Washaun Ealey, Georgia, Soph (125 carries for 717 yds, 3 TD)
Returning Leaders: Receiving
Darvin Adams, Auburn, Jr (70 rec for 1135 yds, 8 TD)
A.J. Green, Georgia, Jr (53 rec for 808 yds, 6 TD)
Terrance Toliver, LSU, Sr (53 rec for 735 yds, 3 TD)
Greg Childs, Arkansas, Jr (48 rec for 894 yds, 7 TD)
Alshon Jeffrey, SC, Soph (46 rec for 763 yds, 6 TD)
Gerald Jones, Tennessee, Sr (46 rec for 680 yds, 4 TD)
Returning Leaders: Tackles
Chris Marve, Vandy, Jr, LB (121 total, 10.1 tackles/game)
Kelvin Sheppard, LSU, Sr, LB (110 total, 8.4 tackles/game)
Josh Bynes, Auburn, Sr, LB (104 total, 8.0 tackles/game)
Craig Stevens, Auburn, Sr, LB (95 total, 7.3 tackles/game)
Jerry Franklin, Arkansas, Jr, LB (94 total, 7.2 tackles/game)
Returning Leaders: Sacks
Justin Houston, Jr, Georgia, OLB (7.5 sacks)
Cliff Matthews, Sr, SC, DE (7.0)
Marcell Dareus, Jr, Alabama, DE (6.5)
DeQuin Evans, Sr, Kentucky, DE (6.0)
Demarcus Dobbs, Sr, Georgia, DE (5.5)
Jake Bequette, Jr, Arkansas, DE (5.5)
Returning Leaders: Interceptions
Mark Barron, Jr, Alabama, S (7)
Corey Broomfield, Soph, Miss St, CB (6)
Johnthan Banks, Soph, Miss St, S (4)
Charles Mitchell, Jr, Miss St, S (4)
BREAKING DOWN THE SEC WITH THE ZEALOTS
Chris (Prediction: West #1; SEC Champion): The defending national champions have a tough task defensively, replacing 9 (or 10 if you want to get technical) starters. But I count the injured Dont'a Hightower who began the season last year as a starter in the group coming back. Offensively they will be fine, sporting the nations best tailback duo. To be honest, Ingram doesn't have much of a chance to repeat as the Heisman winner because true sophomore Trent Richardson is the more talented back and will be drafted as the first overall back if Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams isn't. Greg McElroy silenced any doubters a year ago with efficient play. He wasn't asked to do much, but what he was asked to do, he did. He is Alabama's version of Matt Flynn, proving you can be just solid and win it all. As for their chances for repeating, I am always leery of that, not just because people are out to get them, but also because it just happens so infrequently. I'm not going to bet on the Tide having that level of success a second-straight year, but if any team could repeat, it's Alabama.
J Martin (Prediction: West #1; SEC Champion): I almost feel like I should excuse myself from this one. If nothing else, I’ve probably run my mouth about Bama enough for one off-season. But don’t think that will stop me. In a nutshell, they should be favored in every game, should win the West, and probably the SEC, and who knows, maybe play for another national title. It won’t be easy, but if they can handle potential problems in the secondary, special teams, the schedule, and satisfaction, they’ll be successful to those ends. For the record, the solutions to those problems are, in order, experience, experience, experience, SABAN.
Kevin (Prediction: West #1; SEC Champion): Lump me in with the rest of the Zealots on this one. I see Bama repeating but I don't think it will be as easy as last year. I think Bama losses to Florida in the regular season but comes back to knock them off in the SEC Championship game.
Ross (Prediction: West #1; SEC Champion): Alabama loses an absolute ton on defense, but like Florida, they have a ton of talent stockpiled and ready to reload, including freak DT/DE Marcell Dareus and LB Dont'a Hightower. The question mark is their secondary, which will be very raw -- can they shut down some high-powered offenses from Arkansas or Florida or Auburn? On the other hand, they might just need to slow the opposing offenses down a little because the Bama offense should be able to put quite a few points of their own on the board; they return almost everyone from last year's squad, including the Heisman Trophy winner (Mark Ingram) and his primary back-up (Trent Richardson), who may actually be better than Ingram. QB Greg McElroy and WR Julio Jones are back, too, so this team shouldn't have too much trouble putting up points. After what they've done the past few years, they deserve the benefit of the doubt, even in a division as loaded as the SEC West.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Chris (Prediction: West #2): The Razorbacks come into the season looking good on paper with the gunslinging giant Ryan Mallett behind center, but does anyone else have serious questions about Bobby Petrino coached teams? Who knows, if they don't do well, he could just walk out mid-season again. Despite what I just said, I think they are the second best team in the division.
J Martin (Prediction: West #4): I’d stop short of saying the 2010 Razorbacks are going to flame out like the 2009 Ole Miss team did, but I do think they’re over hyped. Offensively, yes, they have it all: the most talented QB in the conference (maybe not the best, but the most talented), the best receiving corps, a big, experienced OL, and some solid running backs. They can throw up a lot of points. But defensively, while they bring back almost everyone, this is another one of those situations where I’m not so sure it’s a good thing. They were terrible last year. They gave up 420 yards and almost 30 points per game in conference play. And that was with 9 starters back. The issue at Arkansas wasn’t experience, it was talent. And most of those same guys with sub-par SEC talent are back this year. I don’t see them improving enough to win more games than they did in 09. Okay, since they trade off Florida for Vanderbilt, they should win one more. Despite they hype around his arm, Ryan Mallett is not a superman who can gun-sling Arkansas to a West division crown. I foresee his defense putting him in a lot of obvious throwing situations and a lot of elite SEC linemen and linebackers putting him on the run like lions after a baby giraffe on the Serengeti.
Kevin (Prediction: #4 West): Ryan Mallet passed for 3,624 yards and 30 TD with only 7 INT last year. And Arkansas still came in 4th in the SEC West (tied with 3 other teams) at 8-5 (3-5 in the conference). I think Mallet will be good this year but I can't see him passing those numbers and the defense is still not very good. I could see Arkansas going 5-3 in the West if everything went their way but I think they are closer to 4-4.
Ross (Prediction: #2 West): The Hogs should have a murderous offense with virtually all of the starters back from a year ago. They need to get QB Ryan Mallet healthy and up to speed again, but if he's fine, the offense should have little trouble racking up points, even against most SEC defenses (and it won't hurt that there aren't expected to be any SEC defenses as good as the '09 Bama version or the '08 Florida incarnation). The defense also looks pretty solid, with seven returning starters. They have a brutal stretch of games from late September through mid-October that should determine whether they're SEC contenders or pretenders: @ Georgia, Alabama, bye, Texas A&M, @ Auburn. Obviously the A&M game doesn't matter for the SEC race, but it should be a good challenge in the midst of some tough SEC games; they probably need to go at least 2-1 in those SEC games to have a realistic hope at taking the division.
Alex (Prediction: #1 West; SEC Champion): Yes I picked Auburn,. Yes I know Alabama is still good, however I think the Iron Bowl decides the winner in the West.
Chris (Prediction: #3 West): Gene Chiziks second year SHOULD be better than his first. Chizik's late season losing streak helped to doom the Tigers. A year later, they are back and ready to prove 2009 wasn't a fluke. The Tigers start the season ranked, and after a year in Chizik's system, bet on it catching on.
J Martin (Prediction: #3 West): Maybe I should be required to excuse myself from this one, too. There’s a lot of optimism around Auburn this year. There are quite a few people who think Auburn can push Alabama in the West, and even win it (I’m looking at you, Herbstreit). To some extent, I get it. They return a lot of experience on defense and the offensive line, and they pulled in a very strong recruiting class that included the Tigers’ new messiah, Cameron Newton. But in those strengths, I can also see weaknesses. All those returning players on defense weren’t especially good last year, barring that one game against Alabama. This year, they’ll be supplemented by talented freshmen, but they’re still going to be freshmen. And you don’t want to be relying on a bunch of freshmen to make significant contributions in the SEC. Ask South Carolina how that worked out last year. They have trouble performing consistently. As for Newton…Well, find me the last big JUCO QB who came into the SEC and lived up to expectations. I’ll wait. But even beyond that, Newton struggles with being consistently accurate with his passes, and being consistently accurate is THE most important trait for the QB of a hurry-up offense, much more-so than having a laser rocket arm. Urban Meyer let this guy go. ‘Nuff said. Nonetheless, Auburn has the schedule to win 8 or 9 games. But much like last year, they’ll light it up out of conference, then become much more human when they run into the LSU’s, Georgia’s, and Bama’s. Auburn always implodes when they get a little buzz going.
Kevin (Prediction: #3 West): Auburn really struggled last year once they got into the teeth of the SEC schedule as they went 2-5 from Oct 10th to Nov 27th. Auburn will be better this year because they will have more depth but they aren't ready to contend for the West title just quite yet.
Ross (Prediction: #3 West): Auburn returns a ton on offense, but has to break in a new QB (former Florida laptop thief Cam Newton) and a new-ish RB (Mario Fannin), although they also have some big-time freshman running backs to carry the load. The Gus Malzahn offense was a handful a year ago and could be even nastier this year with most of the players being more experienced in running it... IF Cam Newton can keep things rolling. Then again, they ran it with Chris Todd last year, so it shouldn't take much to make it work even better. There's also quite a bit of talent back on defense. The schedule isn't all that favorable (they draw Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina from the SEC East), but they do get an extra week to prep for Alabama. It's also hard to rate them higher until Gene Chizik proves he's a good coach; they looked decent last year, but it's going to take more than 7-5 record and a bowl win.
Alex (Prediction: #1 East): Florida has every tough SEC game, with the exception of Alabama, in Gainesville. While not a world beater Florida has the advantage of Georgia and Tennessee being down. I see Florida taking a business trip to Atlanta in December.
Chris (Prediction: #1 East): This is such a trendy pick, and I hate myself for making it, but I was running into walls every time I was trying to go with my gut and not have Florida coming out on top. They lose as much as any other team in the nation, and only truly great programs can put themselves back together and reload in one season. That will be the test this year for Urban Meyer. Obviously you can point out that he has risen the Florida program's national profile, adding two national championships and a near miss a year ago in only 5 years. But, remember the last time Meyer had to reload in 2007? Yes, Tebow won the Heisman, but the Gators finished 9-4. My point is that by only returning 10 starters, the Gators are at risk of that same destiny. They certainly won't contend for a national title, but they probably won't stray too far from the top-25 either. Replacing Tebow will be junior John Brantley, who operated Urban Meyer's spread with scary efficiency a year ago (going 36-48 for 410 yards and 7 TD's to no INT's). I mean look at those numbers! Yikes! That has to be the system, right? 7 TD's in just 48 pass attempts! Still hard to believe no matter how many times I say it. Brantley was a highly rated prep QB, although was/is no Tebow. But with weapons like Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and Deonte Thompson coming back he may not have to be. The biggest question to me is defense. If Georgia had any semblance of a good quarterback I'd have them running away with the division because of Florida's defense. But they don't, so I have to put my money on the Gators. It may not be pretty, but they should still have enough to win it, even if that means they lose 2-3 games in conference. Also, here's my prediction: Urban Meyer takes off after this year and does not coach college football next year. He's such a perfectionist that he can't stand losing. If he couldn't stand it under Tebow, imagine how much losses could hurt under Brantley when there are more?
J Martin (Prediction: #1 East): Defensively, the Gators are kinda in the same boat as Alabama in the sense that people are overstating their losses on defense. Both schools have recruited at such a high level over the past few years that they can plug ‘n play with the young guys and still compete with anybody. There will be some growing pains, but they’ll be good enough to keep the Gators in every game. And I think the offense will need it. John Brantley is an extremely talented quarterback, but he’s “the guy after the guy,” which is never a good position to be in, especially when the offense is having to be revamped to suit the change. Ultimately, I think the offense will end up looking like the 2006 BCS championship unit (more plays from under center, lots of hocus pocus to cover up for the lack of a QB run threat), which wasn’t a bad offense but also wasn’t the dominant force it became under Tim Tebow (failed to score over 26 points in any SEC regular season game). I’ll be interested to see what kind of help Brantley gets, as well. Jeff Demps worked well with Tebow, but I wonder how he’ll like running between the tackles now that the defense won’t have to respect the QB run threat. If he can’t cut it, who will? Emmanuel Moody, finally? If he could, he would have already because Urban has long lamented not having a more powerful back. Mike Gillislee, maybe? Not impressed. Likewise, there are no proven receiving options, just a lot of talent and promise. Who knows how they’ll turn out. Despite all that, I still think they’ll win the division and have another shot at Bama. It’ll just be more difficult than they’re accustomed to of late.
Kevin (Prediction: #1 East): This is the year for the rest of the East to catch the Gators but I don't see it happening. That being said, I think Florida takes a small step back this year and struggles to the win the division (although I do have them beating Bama in the regular season as Herban Meyer will have this game marked on the schedule). The biggest loss for the Gators this off-season was Charlie Strong and Florida has downgraded in Defensive Coordinators so it will be interesting to see how that affects their play on the field. I think John Brantley will be just fine but Herban will need to tweak the offense to him and it may take a while to get it going. If Brantley goes down, watch out SEC East.
Ross (Prediction: #1 East): Florida has a ton to replace between the loss of Tebow, Riley Cooper, and a good chunk of the defense; fortunately for them, few teams have recruited better over the past few years and are so well-suited to simply reload. It doesn't hurt that there don't appear to be any other significantly strong contenders in the East waiting to topple Florida. They probably won't go undefeated this year... but they probably won't need to in order to win the East.
Chris (Prediction: #2 East): Where's that guy Matthew Stafford? He's still eligible, right? No. Crap. Well, our problem is we really need to get the ball in the hands of A.J. Green, but we don't have the guy to do it. Enter freshman Aaron Murray. I'm not saying he's the guy who will get it done, I'm just saying he's the guy that will HAVE to get it done for the Dawgs to be successful. And I don't think he will. Sure, they may be sniffing a 10-win season this coming year, but they aren't the Georgia of 2008 that for some reason everybody and their mother had an unnatural infatuation with. They might beat at Florida's door for the division crown, but unless Murray wanders past his pay-grade (figuratively speaking) they won't get in. Georgia's year is 2011 unless A.J. Green leaves for the draft (which is a strong possibility), but I wouldn't sleep on the 2010 version either.
J Martin (Prediction: #2 East): There’s a lot of buzz about South Carolina’s potential to unseat Florida at the top of the division, but I think the Georgia still present the strongest threat to the Gators. If the Bulldogs are going to take advantage of Florida being as down as they’re going to be for a while, obviously the #1 priority has to be improving the defense. New DC Todd Grantham is no Kirby Smart, but he brought the 3-4 defense with him, all the same. There’s going to be some degree of an adjustment period due to the switch. Even beyond the differences in scheme, you also have to reshape the bodies of your defense to fit their new roles, which takes time. There are different variations of the 3-4, but whichever way you go, you really need bigs up the middle to make it work. When the Dawgs initially said they were making the switch, I kinda wrote off the defense this year for “adjustment.” But looking at the roster now with the season a week away, they seem a little better suited to make a good showing of themselves. I think it will help them out a ton (no pun intended) if bigs like Justin Anderson and/or Kwame Geathers can step up and be the man at nose guard, allowing DeAngelo Tyson to slide over to a 3-4 end position that’s more natural for his size. They won’t be dominant overnight, but I think a new DC and a new scheme can light a fire under these guys and put an end to the soft play that had set in under Willy Martinez. Offensively, they’ll be fine. The only question mark there is what they’re going to get out of Aaron Murray at quarterback, but I feel confident that he’ll be a lot closer to Matt Stafford than Joe Cox. If the defense shows up this season, there’s no reason Georgia can’t play in a New Year’s bowl and push Florida. However, if they fall on their faces again, and commit a ton of penalties and turnovers in the process, you have to start to assume it's not a scheme thing, or a player thing, it's a cultural thing. And a team's culture starts with the head coach. In that case, it might be time to seriously consider making a change up top.
Kevin (Prediction: #2 East): Georgia has the most offensive talent in the SEC East (best OL, best TE unit, best FBs, best individual WR, best RB combo) but they will be breaking in a new QB whose back-up is a true freshman. As long as Georgia can keep Aaron Murray upright they should be fine on offense. Georgia hired Dallas Cowboys DL coach Todd Grantham as their new DC and he's bringing in the 3-4. Georgia will be hitting people in the mouth this year instead of playing a soft zone and waiting for their opponents to tire from gaining so many yards. It might take a while for Georgia to adjust to the 3-4 but by the end of the year Georgia is going to be a defense that you do not want to face. Justin Houston and Darryl Gamble will thrive at OLB and a name that is really under the radar is DE Demarcus Dobbs (he's actually one of the leading returning sack artists in the SEC). Georgia beats Florida this year at the Cocktail party but I think Florida wins the division and returns to the SEC Championship game. Also, don't forget that Georgia has the best kicker/punter combination in the Nation and have two legitimate big-play returners in Brandon Boykin and Branden Smith that can take one to the house at any moment. Boykin had 3 KO returns for TD last year and word on the street is Smith will get a chance to return punts. The key to this season for Georgia is the back-to-back opening games against South Carolina and Arkansas. Go 0-2 you will hear people calling for CMR's head, go 1-1 you are still in a position to have a good year, go 2-0 watch out because this team could win the East.
Ross (Prediction: #2 East): Georgia is absolutely loaded with returning talent on offense and should have one of the SEC's best offenses if they can get solid play out of the QB position. The bigger question marks are on defense where they're learning new schemes under a new defensive coordinator and breaking in a fair number of new starters. They'll be tested early by games against South Carolina (the other big challenger in the East) and Arkansas (one of the challengers in the West); if they can get off to a hot start (and possibly even if they just split those games), it wouldn't be a shock to see the SEC East yet again be decided by the Cocktail Party game against Florida.
Chris (Prediction: #5 East): The Wildcats have won 7-games for four consecutive seasons. While that is great for them, most of that is a reflection of Andre Woodson and not those guys there now. While Kentucky has a sufficient amount of talent back from a decidedly average team a year ago, I don't see them improving. If anything, it's the status quo. Winning 7 games again is a fat chance, but with a fairly young roster for Joker Phillips, the future looks alright. Don't count them out of the bowl picture though should one of the top 4 slip.
J Martin (Prediction: #4 East): I’m not a huge fan of this Kentucky team, but they’re more talented than Vanderbilt and more stable than Tennessee. Their schedule looks manageable, as well. They draw the two Mississippi schools from the West, as well as Auburn at home (who they beat in Auburn last year). They also get South Carolina and Georgia at home. Between the level of competition and circumstances surrounding the games, I think the Cats can be competitive in 6 of their 8 conference games and could win half of those. If they can improve their rush defense and have a more stable QB situation, they should have no problem winning enough games to get to their 5th straight bowl. Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb could play for almost anyone in the conference.
Kevin (Prediction: #4 East): I really like Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb. Unfortunately, that's about it. Cobb and Locke will step up and beat somebody they shouldn't this year but it still won't keep Kentucky out of 4th place.
Ross (Prediction: #4 East): This pick has as much to do with the uncertainty at Tennessee as it does with the relative strength of the Wildcats. That said, Kentucky should be pretty solid on both sides of the ball if the new-look offensive line can cohere and they have a very favorable schedule; they draw Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Auburn from the West, their non-conference slate is a joke, and they get most of their tough games at home. This team isn't going to contend for the division, but they really should head to another bowl game. The real intrigue is in whether they can finally end the 25-year losing streak to Tennessee.
Chris (Prediction: #4 West): Going into 2009, much of the concern was over quarterback, where sophomore Jordan Jefferson took over a team ready to compete. Despite that experience, going into 2010, one of the biggest questions for LSU is still the quarterback. Jefferson was amazing against Georgia Tech in LSU's bowl in 2008. The kid has potential, but he'll have to grow immensely to lead his team to anything better than a 4th place division finish.
J Martin (Prediction: #2 West): People are really sleeping on LSU this year. Most pundits and publications I’ve seen are pegging the Tigers for FOURTH in the conference. I mostly attribute this to a combination of the positive perceptions surrounding Auburn and Arkansas and a hangover from Les Miles’ blunders. And, look, you’ll get no argument from me on the stupidity of Miles as a coach. But he’s still a top notch recruiter, and if you’ve got elite talent, you’re always going to be competitive in the SEC. The past two years, LSU’s roster has skewed really young. Well, this year, their roster distribution leans a bit older, meaning the team will be more seasoned and smart, even if the coach isn’t. Schedule-wise, they also get a big help by drawing the two worst teams out of the East this year (Tennessee, Vanderbilt). Even though I’m picking them 2nd in the West, and I think the division title WILL be decided when they play Alabama (for the 3rd straight year), they’re not really close to Bama or Florida right now, though the actual game scores could be close. Their main issues are that they’re a bit undersized up front on defense (kiss of death against Alabama), and they don’t have a quarterback. Jordan Jefferson is not good, Jarrett Lee is worse. And due to attrition and moving Russell Shepard to a hybrid RB/WR role, they don’t have anyone on deck that looks promising. Until they find one (and maybe a new coach), they won’t win another SEC crown.
Kevin (Prediction: #2 West): I also feel that LSU is being slept on. I have more confidence in them coming in 2nd than I do in Auburn or Arkansas and LSU still has John Chavis as their DC so you know their D is going to be good at worst. Question of the Day: Who do you want coaching your team? Les Miles, Yellow Bellied Bobby Petrino or Gene Chizik (who went 5-19 at Iowa State and 2-14 in the Big 12)?
Ross (Prediction: #4 West): If LSU really does finish this low, Les Miles is probably toast at LSU. They bring back only six on offense and even less on defense and that could be disastrous in such a cutthroat division. Not to mention Miles' penchant for terrible clock management and tendency to blow some close games; a few close games in '10 could be the difference between 7-5 and 9-3... and Miles losing his job or keeping it. Still, the schedule sets up fairly well for them, giving them a bye before Alabama and lay-up games against McNeese State and UL-Monroe before Auburn and Arkansas. If they get off to a hot start (eminently possible), they could pull off a good season.
Chris (Prediction: #5 West): The Rebs lost All-everything back Dexter McCluster to the NFL and are fairly green on offense and dry on defense. The only reason that the Rebels avoided sixth on my list was that Mississippi State exists. I went with Ole Miss over their in-state rivals because of the playmakers they have on the defensive side of the ball.
J Martin (Prediction: #5 West): I think the Masoli thing is a huge miscalculation by Houston Nutt. This team wasn’t going to contend for any championships with or without him. At the same time, the schedule is soft enough that you could win at least 6 games and go to a bowl game to keep everyone happy no matter who the quarterback is. The quarterback position was going to be an issue, but it was FAR from the only one, nor was it even the biggest. I don’t see why Nutt couldn’t just “suffer” through a mediocre bowl season while grooming Nathan Stanley for the future. Then again, it may still turn out that way, because Masoli is a terrible fit for a pro style offense. He’s an awful passer who got most of his yards at Oregon off typical spread stuff (screens, throwing to receivers open by 10 yards off play action and misdirection). Go watch last year’s Oregon/Boise game to see how he does when he has to just take a drop and throw. He throws an ugly, ugly ball. He may help the Rebels in the Wildcat, but I can’t see him as a pro-style QB. Regardless of who ends up as the starting QB for the duration, they won’t have much help. The offensive line is even less experienced than it was last year when it imploded and drove Jevan Snead insane. Oh, they also lost that McCluster fellow, who, if I recall, pretty much was the offense. They don’t have anyone to replace him. Brandon Bolden is a reliable running back, but nobody is afraid of him. Defensively, they should be salty, and Tyrone Nix is one of the great defensive coordinators out there. But they’re going to be on the field a LOT this season.
Kevin (Prediction: #5 West): Ole Miss is going to have a really good defense this year. Unfortunately they will have probably the worst offense in the SEC this side of Vandy. The X-factor is Jeremiah Masoli but Nutt will have to tweak the offense a lot for him to succeed and is it worth it for one year?
Ross (Prediction: #5 West): I actually think Miss. State is better than Ole Miss this year from a talent/coaching standpoint, but they have a murderous schedule, while Ole Miss has a very manageable one. While they have to deal with the usual tough SEC West foes, they draw the three easiest teams from the SEC East (Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt). Couple that with a pretty lightweight non-conference slate and they're a good bet to make another bowl game. They're also a bit of a wildcard with Jermiah Masoli on board; he's talented, but it's hard to say how well he'll fit into Ole Miss' offensive schemes and it's even harder to predict what sort of impact his arrival will have on team chemistry. He could help them steal a few more wins from the SEC West... or he could utterly torpedo their season.
Chris (Prediction: #6 West): The Bulldogs were once again one of the worst passing teams in nation. Without some drastic, and I mean DRASTIC improvements there and everywhere else, Mississippi State will be the laughingstock of the SEC.
J Martin (Prediction: #6 West): As a team, I actually like the Bulldogs quite a bit more than Ole Miss, but the Rebels have a cake walk conference slate (drawing the bottom 3 from the East), whereas MSU pulls Georgia and Florida and has 3 tough conference games in the first month of the season when they’ll still be gelling as a team. Dan Mullen got last year’s team to over perform, pulling a couple of near-upsets of conference powers and almost qualifying for a bowl. Obviously, they lose their #1 offensive weapon this year, Anthony Dixon (who actually accounted for more TDs and nearly as many total yards as the passing game did in 2009). That said, I think the overall unit will be much improved. Chris Relf, the “running” QB last year, should be improved as a passer, and red-shirt freshman Tyler Russell looks like a much better option as the “passing” QB than the awful Tyson Lee was last year. I think Mullen would like to stick with Relf to help the running game, but no matter how it shakes out, it’ll be better. Defensively, they weren’t good last year, but they bring nearly everyone back, so there should be some slight improvement. Although, much like Arkansas, it’s still more of a talent issue than an experience one. Ultimately, I think the schedule keeps them in the cellar and out of a bowl game for another year.
Kevin (Prediction: #6 West): I like what Dan Mullen is doing. Unfortunately, the SEC West is the most stacked division in all of football this year. Give Mullen a couple more years as I think he will prove himself to be the 2nd best coach in the West (behind Osama bin Saban).
Ross (Prediction: #6 West): This is purely a schedule pick. I think Mississippi State has a bit more talent than Ole Miss (especially on offense) and better coaching, but they draw Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky while Ole Miss gets Tennessee, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Dan Mullen has them headed in the right direction, but this year's schedule may be a bit beyond their capabilities right now.
Alex (Prediction: #2 East): I see the Gamecocks being the only team that can take advantage if Florida makes a misstep this season. I am not sure that Carolina can beat Florida in Gainesville. The stars are aligned for Carolina to perhaps have the best season ever (or at least since 'Black Magic' in '84). South Carolina has Auburn after they play a tough Clemson team, Alabama the week after playing an incredibly tough Florida squad not to mention that USC has the previous week off. Tennessee may give up on their season by the time they roll into Columbia for Halloween. The big Spur has started playing QB games naming Conner Shaw the starter for the opener, however most believe that Garcia will win back the job before game time.
Chris (Prediction: #3 East): Is this finally the year that Steve Spurrier can make South Carolina even quasi-relevant? Um...well, yeah I guess. Maybe they'll be 8-5 this year or even 9-4. Baby steps. They certainly return enough on offense and on defense to be a formidable SEC foe, especially in a historically weak East Division. If the question is are they going to get over that hump and be an elite team? I say no, but it all depends on the NCAA's findings on star TE Weslye Saunders and how that effects his eligibility, and the continued progression of Stephen Garcia. Even without Saunders, if Garcia can keep his nose clean (haha, couldn't resist) I think they can be the 8-5, maybe even a 9-4 team if they're lucky.
J Martin (Prediction: #3 East): These guys are a myth. There are three things you've been able to count on from the Gamecocks over the past few seasons: 1. The defense will be fast and nasty. 2. The offensive line will be soft. 3. Stephen Garcia will always blow it. I’ve not heard nor seen anything this off-season to convince me that won’t be the case this year. Not even Spurrier believes Garcia is going to have a breakthrough in 2010, but a lot of pundits think they know better. They don’t. And it’s too bad for South Carolina fans, because otherwise the offense looks really good. Tori Gurley and Alshon Jeffery are very promising wideouts who are going to be Twin Towers on the field together (6’5” and 6’4”, respectively). They’ll be difficult for anybody to match up with. And then there’s the addition of All-Everything freshman Marcus Lattimore, the Gamecocks' first legitimate rushing threat in a decade. But Garcia and the OL can’t help but ruin it for them. Looks like another 7 or 8 win year for the Gamecocks. And if that turns out to be the case, you have to wonder how much longer HBC wants to keep pounding his head against the wall in Columbia.
Kevin (Prediction: #3 East): Where has Darth Visor gone? As a Georgia fan, Spurrier is somebody that used to put fear in my heart but now I fear Ellis Johnson a lot more than Spurrier. The pivotal game once again for the Cocks is the Georgia game and Carolina gets them early, before the 3-4 and Murray have had a chance to get experience in the SEC. I could see Carolina getting as high as 2nd in the SEC but they have Georgia, Auburn and Alabama in their first five games and that's going to be a tough run. Oh yeah, somebody tell that Saunders kid to shut the hell up.
Ross (Prediction: #3 East): It's seemed like it was finally going to be "the year" for South Carolina for many of the last few seasons... but this really might be "the year" for them, with the uncertainty at Florida and Georgia, the rebuilding going on at Tennessee, and the strength of this team. The 'Cocks return a lot on offense (especially along the offensive line), although their success is ultimately going to come down to whether or not super-recruit Marcus Lattimore can live up to the hype at RB and if Stephen Garcia can emerge as a consistent threat at QB. The schedule isn't terrible, since they get most of their toughest games at home (sans Florida) and get two weeks to prep for Alabama; drawing Bama, Auburn, and Arkansas from the West is tough, though, and the late-season road game against Florida could be a bear. The early game against Georgia and the late game against Florida will be key.
Alex (Prediction: #6 East): I feel that Tennessee's early season gambit is going to be too much especially if injuries set in at key positions. This team even injury free may not be good enough to win four games. Expect the worst single season in Tennessee's storied history.
Chris (Prediction: #4 East): It is incredibly satisfying to me to see the Vols down on their luck. The whole Lane Kiffin/Vols' saga, I thought it was epic, even though I hate Lane Kiffin. Do I have a heart? Yes, but it has been severely damaged by all of the insults and ill will that was thrown my way as a Hokie fan. But now, the tables have turned, and although Vols' fans are still talking some serious trash (for a team that got just demolished 37-14 by Virginia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl), I know that they are backed into a corner. This year's Vols' team will be even more mediocre than the last. I think Derek Dooley is a stretch to be a coach in the SEC, especially after his losing record at Louisiana Tech. It's a move that perhaps if it was made 5 years later it would pay dividends. Right now Dooley faces a mammoth challenge of transitioning Kiffin's recruits and Fulmer's holdouts to his system and back to respectability. But, with no quarterback on the roster having attempted a pass from a year ago, no rusher with over 100 yards, no Eric Berry, and nowhere near the level of coaching that these kids will receive, 4th place is maybe even a little generous. If Kentucky and Vandy weren't as limited from a talent standpoint as they are, I would pick them. Expect Dooley's stay in Knoxville to be a short but less eventful one.
J Martin (Prediction: #5 East): Being a Bama fan, I should probably take a lot more joy in Tennessee’s current predicament than I actually do. I just like Derek Dooley. Unfortunately, he’s walked into a nightmare situation in the wake of the Phil Fulmer ouster and, well, pretty much everything about Lane Kiffin’s tenure in Knoxville. I’m afraid he’s fated to be the Mike Shula of Tennessee. The nice, clean face you put on the program until things stabilize and you can go get the big time coach you really want. This is just an ugly scene. Between graduation, early draft entry, the natural attrition that occurs during a coaching changeover (twice in a year’s time at UT), and the washing out of the highly touted thugs Kiffin brought in, the 2010 Vols barely resemble an SEC team. They have solid numbers back on defense but not a lot of SEC-caliber playmakers to replace the Berry’s, McCoy’s, and Williams’. They also have some very nice receivers. They just don’t have the quarterback to get it to them, or the offensive line to keep him upright long enough to throw it to begin with. The OL is really the worst part of this bad team. It’s inexperienced and shallow, almost beyond belief. One or two injuries and they’re playing walk-ons at the most critical positions on the field. And the schedule is absolutely unforgiving. They draw Alabama and LSU (away) out of the West and have to travel away to play 3 of their intra-divisional opponents. All I can say is I hope Dooley is recruiting hard.
Kevin (Prediction: #5 East): The entire Kiffin saga was so epic. Everybody outside of Tennessee say it coming and everybody inside of Tennessee bought in hook line and sinker. Tennessee just has no depth and when you try to go through the SEC with no depth then you are going to be no good. I'm not even sure Dooley is the right guy as he struggled at Louisiana Tech. Only time will tell, but I think Tennessee fans are not going to sit by and watch Dooley try to rebuild the program. It's going to be a tough few years for the Vols.
Ross (Prediction: #5 East): What a mess. Tons of off-season turmoil, a coaching change, a general lack of talent... just making a bowl game might be a major accomplishment for this squad and even that looks a bit unlikely. Derek Dooley may get this program on solid ground soon, but this year will be a struggle.
Chris (Prediction: #6 East): The Commodores were shocked when long time coach Bobby Johnson decided to retire just before the start of the season. While expectations were tempered at best, Johnson was a better option for this team, especially with only two months remaining before the season. That's Lane Kiffin-esque! The Volunteer state has just really suffered this off-season, and don't expect Vandy's regular season prognosis to look any better. They will lose this division...handily.
J Martin (Prediction: #6 East): What can you say about Vandy? Bobby Johnson did a respectable job here, but probably got more credit than he deserved. He never really capitalized on the 08 bowl season on the recruiting trail, and Vanderbilt today is in much the same place it was when he got there.
Kevin (Prediction: #6 East): If Herban Meyer or Osama bin Saban or the Yellow Bellied Bobby Petrino did what Bobby Johnson did this year they would have absolutely been lit up by the media and made into public enemy number one. Why did Bobby Johnson wait so long to announce he was retiring? It's simple, to keep his recruiting class in tact. Also, by waiting so long he handicapped the administration in finding a new coach (although I don't exactly think they are lining up to coach Vandy). Vandy has some talent (Warren Norman and Chris Marve come to mind) but they aren't ready to contend this year with their version of Bill Stewart and Ray Goff as coach.
Ross (Prediction: #6 East): Losing your coach days before fall practice starts? Yeah, that's a bad sign and hurts a Vandy team that's already low in talent. They might be able to rally around the new boss for a win or two, but this is gonna be a long, ugly season in Commodore-ville.
CFBZ PROJECTED 2010 SEC FINISH
East
1. Florida Gators
2. Georgia Bulldogs
3. South Carolina Gamecocks
4. Kentucky Wildcats
5. Tennessee Volunteers
6. Vanderbilt Commodores
West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Auburn Tigers
3. Arkansas Razorbacks
4. LSU Tigers
5. Ole Miss Rebels
6. Mississippi State Bulldogs
SEC Championship Game: Alabama over Florida
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