Coming off of a 14-0 record the previous year, 2010 set-up as Boise State's best chance yet to make a run at the National Championship. Boise State started off with an impressive victory in the opening week against Virginia Tech. In week three Boise State beat it's other BCS non-conference opponent as it took out talented but jekyl & hyde Oregon State. Boise State then went on a run of terror against non-BCS Conference foes where their closest margin of victory was 29 points against Louisiana Tech. After destroying Fresno State by the tune of 51-0, the Broncos fell to a ranked Nevada team 34-31 in OT by a missed FG. Did Boise's run of easy targets set them up for the loss? It's tough to be in a position like Boise is in. You play in a conference where their isn't anybody else on your level so you basically play 8 easy "gimme" games a year. You try to schedule up but a lot of the bigger name teams don't have anything to gain by playing Boise (and have much more to lose) so Boise ends up only getting big match-ups here and there and it's almost always at their opponents stadium or near their opponents lair. While it's much easier for Boise to run the table than say LSU or Alabama there is also the argument that maybe they aren't as battle tested as they could be if they played in a better conference. Led by 2011 Heisman Candidate Kellen Moore and talented WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young, Boise State had another great season in 2010 and I think that Boise can play with any team in the country on any given day. The question that we will never know (at least not right now) is how Boise would do if they played big-time talent week in and week out and had to face the grind of a conference schedule that teams in the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten face instead of having borderline scrimmages every week instead of conference games. Would the attrition of playing against tougher teams and better coaches wear on the team mentally and physically or would it keep them sharper because they know they have to be on their A game every week? That's one of the questions that keeps Boise on the outside looking in when a lot of pollsters make their ballots and I can't say that I blame them. I would love to see Boise get a chance to step up into a bigger pond and play a tougher schedule and see how they could do. Next year Boise again looks like it has a two-team schedule as they open up against a talented Georgia team that severely under-achieved in 2010 and they end it against a tough TCU team that will be starting a new QB this year. In 2010, even if Boise had gone undefeated they would not have played for the National Championship because of a combination of their schedule and the fact that two teams from BCS Conferences went undefeated. In 2011, Boise State's National Championship hopes again rest on them winning out and having other teams fall by the way-side. We caught up with Kevan Lee of the SB Nation Boise State Blog One Bronco Nation Under God (OBNUG) to get his take on the 2010 Broncos and get a quick peak into 2011.
1. Expectations ran high for the Broncos this year. Do you feel that this team met expectations this year?
Boise State fans had some pretty high expectations - like winning a national championship. So no, Boise State did not meet expectations. Now, whether or not those expectations were reasonable or fair is an entirely different question and one that I'm glad you didn't ask. I don't have the answer to that one.
Thing is, this was perhaps the greatest football team in Boise State history. Obviously, there's room for debate about that since the "greatest team" couldn't do what so many previous ones had - go undefeated. Football's a weird game like that, where anything can happen and on-paper greatness can be undone by a series of bounces or a pair of short uprights. What? Was that out loud? My apologies. I do not mean to hijack this Q&A into a discussion about WAC officiating, which is terrible. Just saying.
2. Which player were the biggest surprise of the season?
DE Shea McClellin had the outstanding season that many expected DE Ryan Winterswyk to have. It helped that Winterswyk was double teamed all the time in order to avoid said outstanding season. But still, McClellin made at least one play per game where you thought, "Wow, this kid is really good at football," or "Wow, toeheads can excel in organized sports." (As a toehead myself, I can understand the poignancy of the latter.)
A lot of other players could fall into the "surprise" category, too, but I'd like to point out one really obvious one: Titus Young. He surprised me with the way he became Boise State's clear-cut No. 1 receiving threat despite the presence of Austin Pettis. That, my friend, is not easy to do.
3. Which player are you most excited about for next season?
The combination of Kellen Moore / Doug Martin is going to keep Bronco hearts warmed all offseason long. BSU has college football's best quarterback (blah blah Andrew Luck, yeah I get it) and one of its most dynamic running backs. The returning starters aren't nearly as many as last year, but that fact seems a little easier to swallow with Moore and Martin returning to the backfield.
4. Boise State had a great duo of senior receivers (Austin Pettis and TItus Young). Who steps up to replace them next year?
The players who are most likely to fill in for Pettis and Young will probably come from this group: Tyler Shoemaker, Mitch Burroughs, Chris Potter, Geraldo Hiwat, Aaron Burks, and Kirby Moore.
My money is on Shoemaker to play the Pettis role next year. His style of play is similar to Pettis in that he is a big body with strong hands who can make plays on key downs and distances. Whether he has the route-running and separation skills needed to survive as Boise State's WR1 remains to be seen.
Opposite Shoemaker, I think Hiwat gets the call. If the Broncos are serious about filling in for Pettis and Young as closely as possible, they'll need a burner and a deep threat outside. Hiwat would be the obvious choice in that role based on his cameos in-season.
Moore is my pick for the starting slot receiver, although I wouldn't be surprised if he pushes either Shoemaker or Hiwat for playing time at the X or Y spots.
5. How big is the Georgia game to start off the year? Boise will be coming in as the higher ranked team and the favorite but Georgia will have a chip on it's shoulder after having two consecutive disappointing seasons.
This game is just as big as the VT one was last year. If Boise State wins, it has a good road to a BCS berth. If it loses, season over. #collegefootballsigh
The difference will be that not as many people will talk about this one since Georgia may not be a preseason Top 25 team. Psychologically, the remnants of the 2005 disaster still remain for Bronco fans, but as far as the players are concerned, none of them played back then and it won't matter. The more important factors will be how quickly Boise State's new starters gel in the starting lineup. This Bronco team could be very good by November but still a little shaky in September.
Showing posts with label Boise State Broncos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boise State Broncos. Show all posts
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Staying In School: Who Will Have The Biggest Impact
Every year college players have the chance to realize their dreams and cash in on a potentially lucrative career by taking their talents to the NFL. Let's take a look at some of the guys who passed up the possibility of declaring for the NFL draft in order to stay in school and possibly help lead their teams to Conference and National Championships.
1. Justin Blackmon and Brandon Wheedon, Oklahoma State- Okie State was picked by everybody to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South this year. But led by Brandon Wheedon, Justin Blackmon and Kendall Hunter they put up the 2nd most points in College Football and passed for the 3rd most yards. As a redshirt sophomore Justin Blackmon emerged as one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the land. In 12 games he caught 111 balls for 1782 yards and 20 TD. He finished 1st in the Nation in TD receptions, 1st in Receiving Yards per game, 2nd in Total Receiving Yards, 2nd in Receptions per Game and 3rd in Total Receptions. To say it was a break-out season would be a huge understatement. In 2009 Brandon Wheedon backed up Zac Robinson and only threw 24 passes all season. This year he got his opportunity and did not waste it. Wheedon put up 4277 yards passing (2nd to only Landry Jones in Big 12 land) and was the highest rated passer in the pass happy Big 12. I'm not sure about how valued Wheedon is by the NFL, especially since he's a 27 year old college QB, but getting both of these guys to come back to school (especially Blackmon) was a huge coo for Mike Gundy. Now the biggest question is how the Cowboys offense will function with Dana Holgerson moving on to West Virginia.
2. Andrew Luck, Stanford- This was the most surprising of all as Luck was thought by many to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. Luck would be my #1 with a bullet if Jim Harbaugh had come back to coach Stanford. Stanford did stay in house with their coaching choice to replace Harbaugh by picking Offensive Coordinator David Shaw. Keeping the offense in tact will be huge for Shaw and Luck. Luck was the third highest rated passer in the Nation (behind some guys named Cam Newton and Kellen Moore) and also led the Pac-10 in Passing Yards and TD. I think it's safe to say that Stanford is here to stay (at least for another year).
3. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma- Oklahoma went 12-2 this year and won the Big 12 Championship. Now they are poised for a run at the National Championship and Broyles coming back gives them the shot in the arm that they might just need to get them over the hump. Broyles led the Nation last year with 131 catches and helped Landry Jones become a much better QB in 2010. Broyles also led the Nation with 9.4 receptions per game, that's an incredible number and Big 12 defenses are going to have their hands full with Broyles and the Sooners offense next year.
4. Kellen Moore, Boise State- Ok, so maybe he's not widely coveted by the NFL. But we still see guys go pro that have no business doing so. Moore is only listed as 6'0" so maybe he's not the typical NFL QB but he sure is the cog that keeps Boise State going. This year the Broncos lose their top two receiving targets in Titus Young and Austin Pettis (both reeled in 71 catches last year) so keeping Moore is huge for maintaining the offense and breaking in some new targets. Moore's stats are as impressive as any other QB in College Football. Over the last two years he has passed for over 7000 yards and has 74 TD and only 9 Interceptions.
5. Case Keenum, Houston- This isn't the typical staying in school but Keenum was a 5th year senior who suffered a torn ACL and missed the last 9 games of last season. Without Keenum, Houston finished the season winning just 3 of their last 9 and concluded the season with a record of 5-7. With Keenum they went 10-4 in 2009. In the two years spanning 2008 and 2009 Keenum passed for over 10,000 yards and posted 44 TD in both of those seasons. If nothing else, Keenum provides us bloggers and sports writers some stats to drool over. Keenum was granted a 6th season by the NCAA and this guy is looking forward to watching it.
6. Jared Crick, Nebraska- There are some good defensive players who passed up the draft but this one might have the biggest impact. Last year Crick posted 70 total tackles (3rd on the team), 14.5 tackles for loss (5th in the Big 12) and 9.5 sacks (2nd in the Big 12). Nebraska was 9th in scoring defense last year in the Nation but their offense faltered and they fell to defeat in 3 of their last 4 games. With Crick coming back Nebraska doesn't need to worry about their DL as they prepare for their first game in their inaugural season in the Big 10.
Honorable Mention: Michael Floyd/Notre Dame, Mark Barron/Alabama, Janoris Jenkins/Florida, LaMichael James/Oregon, Russell Wilson/NC State
1. Justin Blackmon and Brandon Wheedon, Oklahoma State- Okie State was picked by everybody to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South this year. But led by Brandon Wheedon, Justin Blackmon and Kendall Hunter they put up the 2nd most points in College Football and passed for the 3rd most yards. As a redshirt sophomore Justin Blackmon emerged as one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the land. In 12 games he caught 111 balls for 1782 yards and 20 TD. He finished 1st in the Nation in TD receptions, 1st in Receiving Yards per game, 2nd in Total Receiving Yards, 2nd in Receptions per Game and 3rd in Total Receptions. To say it was a break-out season would be a huge understatement. In 2009 Brandon Wheedon backed up Zac Robinson and only threw 24 passes all season. This year he got his opportunity and did not waste it. Wheedon put up 4277 yards passing (2nd to only Landry Jones in Big 12 land) and was the highest rated passer in the pass happy Big 12. I'm not sure about how valued Wheedon is by the NFL, especially since he's a 27 year old college QB, but getting both of these guys to come back to school (especially Blackmon) was a huge coo for Mike Gundy. Now the biggest question is how the Cowboys offense will function with Dana Holgerson moving on to West Virginia.
2. Andrew Luck, Stanford- This was the most surprising of all as Luck was thought by many to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. Luck would be my #1 with a bullet if Jim Harbaugh had come back to coach Stanford. Stanford did stay in house with their coaching choice to replace Harbaugh by picking Offensive Coordinator David Shaw. Keeping the offense in tact will be huge for Shaw and Luck. Luck was the third highest rated passer in the Nation (behind some guys named Cam Newton and Kellen Moore) and also led the Pac-10 in Passing Yards and TD. I think it's safe to say that Stanford is here to stay (at least for another year).
3. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma- Oklahoma went 12-2 this year and won the Big 12 Championship. Now they are poised for a run at the National Championship and Broyles coming back gives them the shot in the arm that they might just need to get them over the hump. Broyles led the Nation last year with 131 catches and helped Landry Jones become a much better QB in 2010. Broyles also led the Nation with 9.4 receptions per game, that's an incredible number and Big 12 defenses are going to have their hands full with Broyles and the Sooners offense next year.
4. Kellen Moore, Boise State- Ok, so maybe he's not widely coveted by the NFL. But we still see guys go pro that have no business doing so. Moore is only listed as 6'0" so maybe he's not the typical NFL QB but he sure is the cog that keeps Boise State going. This year the Broncos lose their top two receiving targets in Titus Young and Austin Pettis (both reeled in 71 catches last year) so keeping Moore is huge for maintaining the offense and breaking in some new targets. Moore's stats are as impressive as any other QB in College Football. Over the last two years he has passed for over 7000 yards and has 74 TD and only 9 Interceptions.
5. Case Keenum, Houston- This isn't the typical staying in school but Keenum was a 5th year senior who suffered a torn ACL and missed the last 9 games of last season. Without Keenum, Houston finished the season winning just 3 of their last 9 and concluded the season with a record of 5-7. With Keenum they went 10-4 in 2009. In the two years spanning 2008 and 2009 Keenum passed for over 10,000 yards and posted 44 TD in both of those seasons. If nothing else, Keenum provides us bloggers and sports writers some stats to drool over. Keenum was granted a 6th season by the NCAA and this guy is looking forward to watching it.
6. Jared Crick, Nebraska- There are some good defensive players who passed up the draft but this one might have the biggest impact. Last year Crick posted 70 total tackles (3rd on the team), 14.5 tackles for loss (5th in the Big 12) and 9.5 sacks (2nd in the Big 12). Nebraska was 9th in scoring defense last year in the Nation but their offense faltered and they fell to defeat in 3 of their last 4 games. With Crick coming back Nebraska doesn't need to worry about their DL as they prepare for their first game in their inaugural season in the Big 10.
Honorable Mention: Michael Floyd/Notre Dame, Mark Barron/Alabama, Janoris Jenkins/Florida, LaMichael James/Oregon, Russell Wilson/NC State
Friday, December 17, 2010
Bowl Predictions Part 1 (12/18-12/26)
New Mexico Bowl (12/18 2pm on ESPN)
BYU (6-6) vs. UTEP (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: BYU 41 UTEP 24
Ross's Prediction: BYU 35, UTEP 21
BYU won four of their last five games; UTEP lost five of their last six games -- give me the team with better momentum (and greater consistency in general; BYU is typically very solid).
Ross's Prediction: FRESNO STATE 31, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 17
NIU suffered a deflating loss in the MAC Championship game -- and then they lost their head coach a few days later. Meanwhile, Fresno State ended the season with a nice win over Illinois and have a much more stable coaching situation.
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl (12/22 8pm on ESPN)
Ross's Prediction: TOLEDO 30, FIU 17
FIU let up off the gas in their regular season finale after they'd already clinched the Sun Belt crown and it wouldn't be too crazy to think that they might just be happy to be at their first-ever bowl game.
BYU (6-6) vs. UTEP (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: BYU 41 UTEP 24
BYU has played a really tough schedule this year (FSU, Utah, TCU, Nevada, Air Force, Washington) and it has resulted in them having a pretty poor record. They really struggled early losing 4 of their first 5 but they seem to be playing pretty good football right now as they won 3 blowouts before falling to Utah by 1 point in their last game. UTEP on the other hand has not played the same type of schedule (although they did play Arkansas late and surrendered 58 points) and they ended up with the same 6-6 record. UTEP is coming into this game having lost 5 of their last 6 including losses to 4-8 UAB, 4-8 Onelane, and 5-7 Marshall
Ross's Prediction: BYU 35, UTEP 21
BYU won four of their last five games; UTEP lost five of their last six games -- give me the team with better momentum (and greater consistency in general; BYU is typically very solid).
uDrove Humanitarian Bowl (12/18 5:30pm on ESPN)
Northern Illinois (10-3) vs. Fresno State (8-4)
Kevin's Prediction: FRESNO STATE 35 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 24
Northern Illinois started off 1-2 with losses to Iowa St and Illinois but them reeled off 9 straight wins before falling to Miami (Oh) in the MAC Championship. But of these 9 wins only two of them came against teams with winning records (Temple and Toledo). Fresno State beat common opponent Illinois and also holds a win over Cincinnati. The Bulldogs had a tough schedule this year and came up short in their biggest games (lost to Nevada by 1 point, got routed by Boise State, lost to Hawaii by 20+ and lost to Ole Miss by 20+). I like Fresno in this one because they've played a much harder schedule and have beaten better teams.
NIU suffered a deflating loss in the MAC Championship game -- and then they lost their head coach a few days later. Meanwhile, Fresno State ended the season with a nice win over Illinois and have a much more stable coaching situation.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (12/18 9pm on ESPN)
Ohio (8-4) vs. Troy (7-5)
Kevin's Prediction: OHIO 28 TROY 21
Ohio closed the year strong by winning 7 of their final 8. Despite losing to Kent State 28-6 in their finale, Ohio can be proud of late victories against Al Golden's Temple 31-23 and MAC Champion Miami (OH) 34-13. Ohio was the only team in the MAC to beat Miami (OH). Here's an interesting tidbit about Troy, they haven't beaten a team with a winning record all year long. Troy is dangerous because they can put up a bunch of points but I'm going to side with Ohio in this one.
Ross's Prediction: TROY 27 OHIO 21
Troy has a 1-3 all-time record in bowl games; Ohio has an 0-4 mark. I'll go with the team that's actually won a bowl game before, thanks.
Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl (12/21 8pm on ESPN)
Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville (6-6)
Kevin's Prediction: LOUISVILLE 31 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 27
Ah, Finally a game I might be interested in watching. Charlie Strong's debut season was decent has a took the Cardinals to 2 more victories than they had last year. The biggest win for Louisville when you look at their schedule was their 26-0 shutout of a team that is going to a BCS bowl (UConn). Louisville also really doesn't have any "bad" losses on their schedule as they lost to Kentucky, Oregon State, Cincy, Pitt, South Florida in OT and West Virginia by 7. Charlie also really instituted some defensive intensity as they finished 15th in the Nation in Defensive scoring giving up on 18.7 points per game. Southern Mississippi's biggest win this year was over C-USA Champion UCF. When you look at Southern Mississippi's schedule they are only 8 points from being 11-1 which is almost unfathomable for a team that lost to a 4-8 UAB team. To me this game is pretty much a toss up. The most intriguing match-up is Strong's 18.7 ppg given up versus the Golden Eagles 37.6 points scored per game. I'm a Power Conference Elitist so I'm going with the Big East team although one should argue whether the Big East counts as a Power Conference.
Ross's Prediction: LOUISVILLE 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20
Southern Miss has a potent offense and a lousy defense; Louisville has a potent defense and a lousy offense. I think Charlie Strong will have Louisville motivated for their first bowl trip in a few years -- and Southern Miss' porous defense will be just what the Cardinals need to get going.
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl (12/22 8pm on ESPN)
Utah vs. Boise State
Kevin's Prediction: BOISE STATE 45 UTAH 17
This is THE game of the first week of Bowl Season. It means even more to me because in Week One next year Kellen Moore and Boise State will be bringing their talent to the ATL to face my Georgia Bulldogs. I think this one is tight in the first half but Boise rolls in the second half. Utah has won some decent games (Pitt, Air Force, BYU, San Diego State) but ultimately they got rolled in the two biggest games of the year and I can't see a team that lost by 25 to Notre Dame beating Boise State. Boise will also be on a mission to put a number on Utah before they head off to the Pac-10
Ross's Prediction: BOISE STATE 42, UTAH 14
Utah got blasted off the map by the one really good team they played all year (TCU), then got smoked by a mediocre Notre Dame team and struggled to beat a so-so BYU team. Oh, and their starting QB is out for this game. Boise will probably be disappointed to not be in another BCS game, but I think they'll rebound to smoke Utah anyway.
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (12/23 8pm on ESPN)
Navy (9-3) vs. San Diego State (8-4)
Kevin's Prediction: SAN DIEGO STATE 35 NAVY 34
Navy's signature win this year came over 7-5 Notre Dame but also lost to Duke. San Diego State ended up having a very good year at 8-4 but ultimately lost every important game they played in (Utah by 4, TCU by 5, BYU by 3, and Missouri by 3). Looking at those scores would you believe it if I told you that San Diego State was 16 points away from running the table? I think this is going to be a fun shootout. San Diego State's passing attack against Navy's running attack. The team with the ball last wins.
Ross's Prediction: NAVY 34, SAN DIEGO STATE 31
This Navy team can actually run AND pass the ball, which is double trouble for their opponents. San Diego State was a sneaky-good Mountain West team, but I feel un-American picking against Navy here.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (12/24 8pm on ESPN)
Hawaii vs. Tulsa
Kevin's Prediction: HAWAII 48 TULSA 31
This game pits the Nation's #1 Passing Offense (Hawaii) against 16th best Passing Offense in the Nation. It should also be noted that Tulsa is 119th in the Nation defending the pass giving up 305 yards per game, only Tommy Tuberville's Texas Tech was worse this year. This will be fun to watch if you are a fan of high scoring games and blown coverages.
Ross's Prediction: HAWAII 41, TULSA 35
C'mon, it's a home game for a surprisingly good Hawaii team -- that actually plays some decent defense. I'm not turning my back on the Rainbow Warriors now.
Little Caesars Bowl (12/26 8:30pm on ESPN)
Florida International (6-6) vs. Toledo (8-4)
Kevin's Prediction: TOLEDO 27 FIU 21
The best thing about this game has to be the Pizza. It's a shame I haven't had Little Caesars in years, I guess that's the fallback of living out in the boonies. It's hard to get excited about a team, FIU, who got their victories by beating up on 2-10 and 3-9 teams. FIU's sole win against a team with a winning record was their 52-35 win over Troy. Toledo on the other hand has a couple of quality wins. Yeah, Toledo got smoked by Arizona (41-2) and Boise State (57-14) and they couldn't hang with Northern Illinois (65-30). But they did beat Purdue 31-20 and they also beat 8-4 Ohio 20-13. This is not going to be a ratings grabber but I'd take Toledo if I was a betting man.
Ross's Prediction: TOLEDO 30, FIU 17
FIU let up off the gas in their regular season finale after they'd already clinched the Sun Belt crown and it wouldn't be too crazy to think that they might just be happy to be at their first-ever bowl game.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 23-25
Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.
LAST WEEK: 5-1
OVERALL: 12-6
#19 Miami (1-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Both teams have been off since 9/11/10, so they should be well-rested and well-prepared for this game, which pits two former Big East rivals against one another, both of whom could really use an impressive win to regain some of their season's lost momentum. Miami's had two weeks to stew over a loss to Ohio State in which any chance they might have had at springing the upset was killed by Jacory Harris' four interceptions, while Pittsburgh hasn’t played an opponent with a pulse since their opening night stumble at Utah. (They beat New Hampshire two weeks ago.) In a battle of two coaches who recruit well but frequently struggle on game day, I’d usually say go with the guy with the better talent on hand (which seems like Miami, by a hair). On the other hand, it’s not often wise to bet against the home underdog on Thursday night, so I’ll grudgingly side with the Wannstache in this one.
THE PICK: PITT 27, MIAMI 21
#1 Alabama (3-0) @ #10 Arkansas (3-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
The season’s second all-top ten clash (after the Boise State-Virginia Tech thriller in week one) was one of the more anticipated games of the SEC slate before the season began and even before Arkansas seemed likely to be ranked in the top ten, owing to Arkansas’ status as the sexy dark horse pick in the SEC. After nearly toppling Florida last year and having a solid season, Arkansas was expected to be a major threat this year with nearly all of their offensive firepower back, an improved defense, and, in this game a match-up advantage (Ryan Mallett and Arkansas’ high-powered passing offense versus Alabama’s inexperienced secondary), and homefield. On the other hand, Alabama has cruised through the opening three weeks with nary a speedbump, even without the services of two of their best players, RB Mark Ingram and DT/DT Marcell Dareus for the opening two games. They both returned last week and Alabama obliterated Duke, 62-13. They are scary good – again. Still, even the best teams are going to have tough games and this looks like one of Alabama’s toughest games of the year. It’s also the beginning of a brutal three-game stretch that sees road trips to Arkansas and South Carolina bookended around a home game against Florida. Then again, with Saban in charge, their eyes should be firmly on the obstacle in front of them, which is Arkansas and Mallett. And it’s tough to pick against the defending champs when they’re playing so lights-out. So as much as I want to go for the upset…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, ARKANSAS 28
#12 South Carolina (3-0) @ #17 Auburn (3-0) (7:45pm EST, ESPN)
There are few things stranger than watching architect of the Fun-n-Gun offense that revolutionized the passing game in the SEC become a disciple of the cro-mag football that’s long characterized the Big Ten, but then again running backs like Marcus Lattimore don’t come along every day, so even a passing guru like Steve Spurrier knows when to ride that horse as long as possible. Granted, it’s not like Spurrier’s been allergic to the running game in the past (even at Florida he churned out quality tailbacks like some guy by the name of Emmitt Smith) and if Stephen Garcia was your main option at quarterback, it’s easy to see why pounding away on the ground seems a little more palatable… but still: kinda weird. Meanwhile, Gene Chizik’s Auburn squad has its own freshman stud running back in Michael Dyer, although he’s only the third most prolific runner on this team, behind QB Cameron Newton and fellow RB Ontero McCalebb. Newton continues to be a work in progress in the passing game, but he’s a definite threat on the ground. With two powerful running games and two nasty, hard-hitting defenses (the Auburn-Clemson game a week ago seemed to feature a game-stopping injury every third play), this one should be the kind of game Bo and Woody would have enjoyed, even if it is dressed up in SEC colors. Auburn has the homefield edge, but they’ve looked like the shakier side so far and it’s hard to shake the feeling that this could finally be the year that South Carolina breaks through.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 17, AUBURN 13
#24 Oregon State (1-1) @ #3 Boise State (3-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
For the first time ever, College GameDay’s headed to Boise to party on the Smurf Turf as Boise State continues their inexorable march to, at the very least, a third BCS bowl appearance in the last five years – and perhaps even a BCS Championship Game appearance if a few things can break their way. Oregon State represents the last chance for one of the power conferences to derail the Broncos before they can crash the big boy party; all they have to do is accomplish the nigh-impossible: beat Boise on that aforementioned Smurf Turf. You could count the number of games Boise has lost on their home field in recent years on one hand, even if that one hand was a stump. They basically never, ever lose there. Oregon State gave TCU a run in the opener, but they struggled to put away a middling Louisville team traveling thousands of miles to Corvalis, OR last week; maybe they were just looking ahead to their big showdown with Boise, but it doesn’t breed much confidence. Meanwhile, Boise rebounded from seeing their national spotlight win over Virginia Tech lose almost all of its luster after the Hokies got knocked off by James Madison by turning around and curbstomping Wyoming last week. They seem pretty focused on doing what they need to do, which is just beating everyone in front of them. If this game was anywhere but Boise, I would give Oregon State a slight chance at the upset. But in Boise? Not happening.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE 37, OREGON STATE 24
#22 West Virginia (3-0) @ #15 LSU (3-0) (9:00pm EST, ESPN2)
Can ESPN just air three hours of these two fanbases tailgating and hanging out before the game? That’s almost guaranteed to be more interesting than whatever these two winning-but-flawed football teams do on the field, given how passionate (read: totally goddamn insane) their fans are. I would not want to be a cop in Baton Rouge on Saturday night. Anyway, the game. LSU enters the game as the sole team in the FBS who’s managed to record three wins over fellow BCS teams; sure those three teams were SEC bottomfeeders Vanderbilt and Mississippi State and a hugely depleted North Carolina team, but hey: wins over teams that aren’t just there to collect a fat paycheck are nothing to sniff about at this stage of the season. After inexplicably giving up a career day to North Carolina’s TJ Yates, the LSU defense has buckled down considerably, holding Vandy and MSU to a combined 10 points and roughly 400 yards of total offense. Which is good because the LSU offense has looked a mite sluggish; they needed big second halves to break open both games. West Virginia’s 3-0 mark contains two wins over FBS competition, but they haven’t looked hugely impressive in doing so; they needed a quasi-miraculous comeback to get by in-state rivals Marshall two weeks ago and they let Maryland hang around for a good chunk of the game a week ago. Geno Smith is emerging as a solid quarterback (71/101, 800 yards, 7/1 TD/INT), but he hasn’t faced a defense nearly as brutal as LSU’s, nor a cornerback as impenetrable as Patrick Peterson, and while Noel Devine is slippery, busting off runs against CUSA and ACC defenses is one thing; doing it against one of the SEC’s best is another. And picking against LSU in Death Valley at night? You must be crazy.
THE PICK: LSU 27, WEST VIRGINIA 14
Cal (2-1) @ #14 Arizona (3-0) (10:00pm EST, FSN)
Arizona is the team of the moment, and justifiably so after picking up one of the young season's signature wins in knocking off a top-ten team in Iowa. But the college football season is a marathon, not a sprint; it's one thing to get amped up for one big night game on national TV, against an opponent that your coach has history with and that you wanted to beat to avenge a loss from last fall -- it's another thing entirely to be able to maintain that level of focus and passion throughout eight, nine, or ten more games. Arizona was well-coached and well-prepared for their game with Iowa and executed their gameplan very well... but 18-22 year olds can't (and won't) execute at that level, week in and week out. So the trick becomes winning when you aren't at your best. And a week after such a big win, after spending all week reading stories about how great they are and how they've shed the "mediocre" or "underachiever" labels that have dogged them in the past, it would be an absolute stunner if there wasn't a little bit of a hangover there. On the flipside, Cal's coming off one of the most humiliating losses of Jeff Tedford's tenure, a game in which their defense got utterly destroyed by Nevada's Colin Kaepernick. But they're not as bad as they looked in that game and they have the talent to give Arizona some troubles if their heads aren't totally in the game. On the other hand, the home team has won five straight in this series...
THE PICK: ARIZONA 34, CAL 30
LAST WEEK: 5-1
OVERALL: 12-6
#19 Miami (1-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-1) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)
Both teams have been off since 9/11/10, so they should be well-rested and well-prepared for this game, which pits two former Big East rivals against one another, both of whom could really use an impressive win to regain some of their season's lost momentum. Miami's had two weeks to stew over a loss to Ohio State in which any chance they might have had at springing the upset was killed by Jacory Harris' four interceptions, while Pittsburgh hasn’t played an opponent with a pulse since their opening night stumble at Utah. (They beat New Hampshire two weeks ago.) In a battle of two coaches who recruit well but frequently struggle on game day, I’d usually say go with the guy with the better talent on hand (which seems like Miami, by a hair). On the other hand, it’s not often wise to bet against the home underdog on Thursday night, so I’ll grudgingly side with the Wannstache in this one.
THE PICK: PITT 27, MIAMI 21
#1 Alabama (3-0) @ #10 Arkansas (3-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS)
The season’s second all-top ten clash (after the Boise State-Virginia Tech thriller in week one) was one of the more anticipated games of the SEC slate before the season began and even before Arkansas seemed likely to be ranked in the top ten, owing to Arkansas’ status as the sexy dark horse pick in the SEC. After nearly toppling Florida last year and having a solid season, Arkansas was expected to be a major threat this year with nearly all of their offensive firepower back, an improved defense, and, in this game a match-up advantage (Ryan Mallett and Arkansas’ high-powered passing offense versus Alabama’s inexperienced secondary), and homefield. On the other hand, Alabama has cruised through the opening three weeks with nary a speedbump, even without the services of two of their best players, RB Mark Ingram and DT/DT Marcell Dareus for the opening two games. They both returned last week and Alabama obliterated Duke, 62-13. They are scary good – again. Still, even the best teams are going to have tough games and this looks like one of Alabama’s toughest games of the year. It’s also the beginning of a brutal three-game stretch that sees road trips to Arkansas and South Carolina bookended around a home game against Florida. Then again, with Saban in charge, their eyes should be firmly on the obstacle in front of them, which is Arkansas and Mallett. And it’s tough to pick against the defending champs when they’re playing so lights-out. So as much as I want to go for the upset…
THE PICK: ALABAMA 31, ARKANSAS 28
#12 South Carolina (3-0) @ #17 Auburn (3-0) (7:45pm EST, ESPN)
There are few things stranger than watching architect of the Fun-n-Gun offense that revolutionized the passing game in the SEC become a disciple of the cro-mag football that’s long characterized the Big Ten, but then again running backs like Marcus Lattimore don’t come along every day, so even a passing guru like Steve Spurrier knows when to ride that horse as long as possible. Granted, it’s not like Spurrier’s been allergic to the running game in the past (even at Florida he churned out quality tailbacks like some guy by the name of Emmitt Smith) and if Stephen Garcia was your main option at quarterback, it’s easy to see why pounding away on the ground seems a little more palatable… but still: kinda weird. Meanwhile, Gene Chizik’s Auburn squad has its own freshman stud running back in Michael Dyer, although he’s only the third most prolific runner on this team, behind QB Cameron Newton and fellow RB Ontero McCalebb. Newton continues to be a work in progress in the passing game, but he’s a definite threat on the ground. With two powerful running games and two nasty, hard-hitting defenses (the Auburn-Clemson game a week ago seemed to feature a game-stopping injury every third play), this one should be the kind of game Bo and Woody would have enjoyed, even if it is dressed up in SEC colors. Auburn has the homefield edge, but they’ve looked like the shakier side so far and it’s hard to shake the feeling that this could finally be the year that South Carolina breaks through.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 17, AUBURN 13
#24 Oregon State (1-1) @ #3 Boise State (3-0) (8:00pm EST, ABC)
For the first time ever, College GameDay’s headed to Boise to party on the Smurf Turf as Boise State continues their inexorable march to, at the very least, a third BCS bowl appearance in the last five years – and perhaps even a BCS Championship Game appearance if a few things can break their way. Oregon State represents the last chance for one of the power conferences to derail the Broncos before they can crash the big boy party; all they have to do is accomplish the nigh-impossible: beat Boise on that aforementioned Smurf Turf. You could count the number of games Boise has lost on their home field in recent years on one hand, even if that one hand was a stump. They basically never, ever lose there. Oregon State gave TCU a run in the opener, but they struggled to put away a middling Louisville team traveling thousands of miles to Corvalis, OR last week; maybe they were just looking ahead to their big showdown with Boise, but it doesn’t breed much confidence. Meanwhile, Boise rebounded from seeing their national spotlight win over Virginia Tech lose almost all of its luster after the Hokies got knocked off by James Madison by turning around and curbstomping Wyoming last week. They seem pretty focused on doing what they need to do, which is just beating everyone in front of them. If this game was anywhere but Boise, I would give Oregon State a slight chance at the upset. But in Boise? Not happening.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE 37, OREGON STATE 24
#22 West Virginia (3-0) @ #15 LSU (3-0) (9:00pm EST, ESPN2)
Can ESPN just air three hours of these two fanbases tailgating and hanging out before the game? That’s almost guaranteed to be more interesting than whatever these two winning-but-flawed football teams do on the field, given how passionate (read: totally goddamn insane) their fans are. I would not want to be a cop in Baton Rouge on Saturday night. Anyway, the game. LSU enters the game as the sole team in the FBS who’s managed to record three wins over fellow BCS teams; sure those three teams were SEC bottomfeeders Vanderbilt and Mississippi State and a hugely depleted North Carolina team, but hey: wins over teams that aren’t just there to collect a fat paycheck are nothing to sniff about at this stage of the season. After inexplicably giving up a career day to North Carolina’s TJ Yates, the LSU defense has buckled down considerably, holding Vandy and MSU to a combined 10 points and roughly 400 yards of total offense. Which is good because the LSU offense has looked a mite sluggish; they needed big second halves to break open both games. West Virginia’s 3-0 mark contains two wins over FBS competition, but they haven’t looked hugely impressive in doing so; they needed a quasi-miraculous comeback to get by in-state rivals Marshall two weeks ago and they let Maryland hang around for a good chunk of the game a week ago. Geno Smith is emerging as a solid quarterback (71/101, 800 yards, 7/1 TD/INT), but he hasn’t faced a defense nearly as brutal as LSU’s, nor a cornerback as impenetrable as Patrick Peterson, and while Noel Devine is slippery, busting off runs against CUSA and ACC defenses is one thing; doing it against one of the SEC’s best is another. And picking against LSU in Death Valley at night? You must be crazy.
THE PICK: LSU 27, WEST VIRGINIA 14
Cal (2-1) @ #14 Arizona (3-0) (10:00pm EST, FSN)
Arizona is the team of the moment, and justifiably so after picking up one of the young season's signature wins in knocking off a top-ten team in Iowa. But the college football season is a marathon, not a sprint; it's one thing to get amped up for one big night game on national TV, against an opponent that your coach has history with and that you wanted to beat to avenge a loss from last fall -- it's another thing entirely to be able to maintain that level of focus and passion throughout eight, nine, or ten more games. Arizona was well-coached and well-prepared for their game with Iowa and executed their gameplan very well... but 18-22 year olds can't (and won't) execute at that level, week in and week out. So the trick becomes winning when you aren't at your best. And a week after such a big win, after spending all week reading stories about how great they are and how they've shed the "mediocre" or "underachiever" labels that have dogged them in the past, it would be an absolute stunner if there wasn't a little bit of a hangover there. On the flipside, Cal's coming off one of the most humiliating losses of Jeff Tedford's tenure, a game in which their defense got utterly destroyed by Nevada's Colin Kaepernick. But they're not as bad as they looked in that game and they have the talent to give Arizona some troubles if their heads aren't totally in the game. On the other hand, the home team has won five straight in this series...
THE PICK: ARIZONA 34, CAL 30
Friday, July 9, 2010
Pre-Season Preview: Boise State Broncos
2009 Record: 14-0 (8-0 in WAC)
2009 Bowl: Fiesta Bowl (beat TCU 17-10))
Final 2009 AP Ranking: #4
Head Coach: Chris Petersen (49-4 at Boise State)
Non-Conference Schedule: Virginia Tech (9/6), at Wyoming (9/18), Oregon State (9/25), Toledo (10/9)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 42.2 points per game (1st in WAC, tied for 1st in Nation)
Rushing Yards/Game: 186 (4th in WAC)
Passing Yards/Game: 264 (3rd in WAC)
Total Yards/Game: 450 (3rd in WAC, 10th in Nation)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 17.1 points per game (1st in WAC, 13th in Nation)
Rushing Yards/Game: 120 (2nd in WAC)
Passing Yards/Game: 179 (1st in WAC)
Total Yards/Game: 300 (1st in WAC, 14th in Nation)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +1.50 per game (1st in WAC, 3rd in Nation)
Penalties: 56 yards per game (6th in WAC)
Returning Starters
Offense: 11
Defense: 10
Kicker/Punter: 2
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Kellen Moore, Jr (277 of 432 for 3536 yds, 39 TD, 3 INT, 252 ypg)
Rushing: RB Jeremy Avery, Sr (209 carries for 1151 yds, 6 TD, 5.5 ypc, 82 ypg)
Receiving: WR Titus Young, Sr (79 rec, 1041 yds, 10 TD, 5.6 rec/game, 74 rec ypg)
Tackles: SS Jeron Johnson, Sr (91)
Sacks: DE Ryan Winterswyk, Sr (9)
Interceptions: CB Brandon Thompson, Sr (6)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #4
Lindy's: #2
Mark Schlabach: #3
Phil Steele: #6
Rivals: #4
Scout: #8
Sporting News: #3
Sports Illustrated: #3
2010 Pre-Season WAC Prediction
Athlon Sports: #1
Phil Steele: #1
2010 Bowl Predictions
Athlon Sports: Rose Bowl
Phil Steele: Kraft Foods Bowl (vs. Stanford)
Boise State beat Oregon in a season opening grinder that will long be remembered for what happened after the game. The Broncos went on to go undefeated and then knock off TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State needed a break to get into the National Championship game but did not get it last year. This year they have a really tough opening week game against Virginia Tech. Then also have a pretty tough match-up with Oregon State in their third game of the year. If Boise State gets past Virginia Tech it looks like they will once again be in position to play in the National Championship game if things break their way. When I was doing this preview I pulled Chris Peterson's record off of Wikipedia and was more than a little bit surprised at his 49-4 record. Sure, Boise State is playing a lot of teams that do not match up with them but only losing 4 games over a 4 year period (while also playing out of conference games like Oregon and beating the likes of Oklahoma and TCU in their bowl games) is amazing. Another stat that stood out for me was Kellen Moore's TD to interception ratio which was 39 to 3 as a sophmore last year. Moore was a big factor in Boise State's turnover margin which was a very healthy +1.5. When you are getting the ball 1.5 times more than your opponent good things are going to happen. Boise State returns practically everybody from their undefeated team of last year. If you are a Broncos fan you can't help but be confident going into the year. We caught up with Kevan Lee of the SB Nation Boise State Blog One Bronco Nation Under God (OBNUG) to find out what to expect from the 2010 Boise State Broncos.
What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the team?
Strengths:
Experience. Boise State returns 20 of 22 starters, except that the coaching staff told no one their starting job was safe this season. That's right. The Broncos will have Fiesta Bowl veterans nervously watching the two-deep roster every week.
Defense. Boise State's defense is better than its offense, and it took me a good year-and-a-half to wrap my head around that one.
Beating WAC teams. Especially Nevada.
Coaching. And I do not even mean gameday coaching, although that is really good, too. Boise State has great year-round coaching from recruiting to training to teaching to motivating to managing and everything in between.
Running back. There are four players who have had 100-yard games. And I love them all equally. (That's not true. I love Doug Martin best.)
Weaknesses:
Killer instinct. Boise State let too many teams hang around last year. It was bad times. Not only did it cost them some respect from pollsters and the national media (Beating Tulsa by a touchdown? Mark May finds that very disagreeable), but it also made it very hard on my life-crippling gambling addiction.
Bowl games. Except for the Fiesta Bowl.
Depth behind Austin Pettis. When Pettis went down last year, the Bronco offense was not itself. Sadly, the Pettis cloning project I tried to underfund this offseason went south and I blew the cash I raised on Lego Harry Potter.
What team on the schedule do you fear the most?
Well, it's certainly not a WAC team. Am I right? Who's with me?
/realizing the joke's on me
/getting depressed
/watching 2010 Fiesta Bowl DVR
/feeling better
Obviously, the answer from most all sane Bronco fans will be Virginia Tech. The Hokies are a preseason Top Ten team with the kind of depth and talent that non-BCS schools simply don't see all that often. And those sane Bronco fans are right; VT will be a test.
But I am most fearful of Oregon State. Beaver fear courses through my veins for a number of reasons. A) Oregon State is a very well-coached team that is one of the most consistent programs in the Northwest. B) The game is not receiving the cataclysmic attention of the Broncos' Labor Day opener with the Hokies, and therefore it stands to reason that players and fans might be overlooking it. C) The Rodgers' brothers were birthed by video game Bo Jackson. D) The game follows a tough test on the road against Wyoming.
I peed my pants a little writing that paragraph.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
DE Shea McClellin. The pecking order of Boise State defensive linemen goes like this: DE Ryan Winterswyk, DT Billy Winn, DT Chase Baker, JUCO transfer and never-taken-a-snap-before-with-the-defense DE Tyrone Crawford, afro'ed DE Jarrell Root, MLB Byron Hout, and then McClellin. To say that people don't talk about McClellin enough is to say that not enough people watched Better Off Ted. Of course they didn't watch. There was too much else to do.
Well those people were missing out, both because Better Off Ted was excellent and so is the Better Off Ted metaphor in this case, McClellin. The former high school RB from small-town Idaho blossomed as a starter last season, and he looked absolutely superb in spring practice. He has one of those Jared Allen motors, which helps him compensate for the quasi-RB way he plays defensive end.
Best of all, McClellin often lines up as a linebacker when the Broncos switch from their traditional 4-2-5 into the 3-4 or the 3-3-5. It is terrifying to watch, and I am 30 miles away in my papasan chair.
Who is the best offensive player on the team?
Kellen Moore is the best offensive player on the team, as well as the planet, and probably in the history of the world. It's a fact. Ask any Bronco fan.
Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?
DT Billy Winn. Oho, did I throw you off the scent by singing hallelujahs at Shea McClellin in the above paragraphs? McClellin may be a force at DE, but a DEs impact is much more acute and narrow than a DT. Winn can control football games when is playing his best. He has that rare DT ability to hold the line of scrimmage and absorb blockers while still possessing a passing game push. His bull rush is top notch. And even he gets into the linebacker action when the Broncos go to the 3-3-5.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach its full capability?
CB Brandyn Thompson. This question inspired a post over at OBNUG where I blamed my premature disappointment on Thompson's inability to replace Kyle Wilson man to man. Am I being unreasonable? Of course I am. Thompson doesn't even have dreadlocks or his own wrapped RV.
However, just because Wilson's shoes are impossibly large to fill doesn't mean that Thompson gets a free pass. The Boise State defense got used to relying on Wilson's lockdown corner skills so much so that the D transformed into a blitzing, risk-taking unit that didn't need to pay any attention to one whole half of the field. Can Thompson pull the same sleight of hand this season? His up-and-down 2009 had hints of greatness and hints of awfulness. We'll see.
Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
LT Faraji Wright. The Broncos did a very strange thing this offseason. They moved their best offensive lineman, LT Nate Potter, to guard. Why? Because Faraji Wright told them to, that's why.
Wright and Wright clone Charles Leno were such up-and-coming stars in the BSU system that Bronco coaches were forced to make room for them. Inside went Potter, and Wright and Leno were left to duke it out for starting honors in his place.
I'm going with Wright for the starting role based on what little I have seen of him in practices and scrimmages. Plus, his name is not synonymous with the man who ruined late night television. Had there been a Charles O'Brien, I would have voted for him.
Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
DE Tyrone Crawford. There is only one spot on the Boise State defense that had to be replaced this offseason (although the Bronco coaching staff said everyone's spots are fair game, so there goes that fun stat).
You will hear a lot about CBs Jerrell Gavins and Jamar Taylor, stepping into the vacant spot at cornerback. But chances are that you will hear Crawford's name plenty, too, once the season kicks off. A Canadian JUCO transfer, Crawford is expected to seriously contend for a starting spot this season on the defensive line. Will he overtake Winterswyk or McClellin? Quite possibly. But even if he doesn't, the Boise State coaches rotate their defensive linemen often enough that he will make an impact.
Former DE Byron Hout (he of the LeGarrette Blount punch) was moved to MLB to make room for Crawford, and Hout was a really good DE. Crawford must be something special.
Make sure you check out OBNUG prior to and after the big Virginia Tech showdown. You can also follow them on Twitter @OBNUG.
Previous WAC Previews
Fresno State Bulldogs
New Mexico State Aggies
Next Up: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
ACC- Boston College Eagles, Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins, Virginia Tech Hokies
Big 12- Kansas State Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, Texas Longhorns, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, USF Bulls, West Virginia Mountaineers
Big Ten- Illinois Fighting Illini, Michigan Wolverines, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Northwestern Wildcats, Purdue Boilermakers
C-USA- Houston Cougars, SMU Mustangs, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Tulane Green Wave, UTEP Miners
Independent- Navy Midshipmen
MAC- Ball State Cardinals, Bowling Green Falcons, Buffalo Bulls, Central Michigan Chippewas, Temple Owls, Toledo Rockets
MWC- BYU Cougars, Colorado State Rams, UNLV Rebels, Utah Utes
Pac-10- Arizona State Sun Devils, Oregon Ducks, USC Trojans, Washington Huskies
SEC- Auburn Tigers, Kentucky Wildcats, Mississippi Rebels, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
Sun Belt- Troy Trojans
2009 Bowl: Fiesta Bowl (beat TCU 17-10))
Final 2009 AP Ranking: #4
Head Coach: Chris Petersen (49-4 at Boise State)
Non-Conference Schedule: Virginia Tech (9/6), at Wyoming (9/18), Oregon State (9/25), Toledo (10/9)
2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 42.2 points per game (1st in WAC, tied for 1st in Nation)
Rushing Yards/Game: 186 (4th in WAC)
Passing Yards/Game: 264 (3rd in WAC)
Total Yards/Game: 450 (3rd in WAC, 10th in Nation)
2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 17.1 points per game (1st in WAC, 13th in Nation)
Rushing Yards/Game: 120 (2nd in WAC)
Passing Yards/Game: 179 (1st in WAC)
Total Yards/Game: 300 (1st in WAC, 14th in Nation)
2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +1.50 per game (1st in WAC, 3rd in Nation)
Penalties: 56 yards per game (6th in WAC)
Returning Starters
Offense: 11
Defense: 10
Kicker/Punter: 2
Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Kellen Moore, Jr (277 of 432 for 3536 yds, 39 TD, 3 INT, 252 ypg)
Rushing: RB Jeremy Avery, Sr (209 carries for 1151 yds, 6 TD, 5.5 ypc, 82 ypg)
Receiving: WR Titus Young, Sr (79 rec, 1041 yds, 10 TD, 5.6 rec/game, 74 rec ypg)
Tackles: SS Jeron Johnson, Sr (91)
Sacks: DE Ryan Winterswyk, Sr (9)
Interceptions: CB Brandon Thompson, Sr (6)
2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Athlon Sports: #4
Lindy's: #2
Mark Schlabach: #3
Phil Steele: #6
Rivals: #4
Scout: #8
Sporting News: #3
Sports Illustrated: #3
2010 Pre-Season WAC Prediction
Athlon Sports: #1
Phil Steele: #1
2010 Bowl Predictions
Athlon Sports: Rose Bowl
Phil Steele: Kraft Foods Bowl (vs. Stanford)
Boise State beat Oregon in a season opening grinder that will long be remembered for what happened after the game. The Broncos went on to go undefeated and then knock off TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State needed a break to get into the National Championship game but did not get it last year. This year they have a really tough opening week game against Virginia Tech. Then also have a pretty tough match-up with Oregon State in their third game of the year. If Boise State gets past Virginia Tech it looks like they will once again be in position to play in the National Championship game if things break their way. When I was doing this preview I pulled Chris Peterson's record off of Wikipedia and was more than a little bit surprised at his 49-4 record. Sure, Boise State is playing a lot of teams that do not match up with them but only losing 4 games over a 4 year period (while also playing out of conference games like Oregon and beating the likes of Oklahoma and TCU in their bowl games) is amazing. Another stat that stood out for me was Kellen Moore's TD to interception ratio which was 39 to 3 as a sophmore last year. Moore was a big factor in Boise State's turnover margin which was a very healthy +1.5. When you are getting the ball 1.5 times more than your opponent good things are going to happen. Boise State returns practically everybody from their undefeated team of last year. If you are a Broncos fan you can't help but be confident going into the year. We caught up with Kevan Lee of the SB Nation Boise State Blog One Bronco Nation Under God (OBNUG) to find out what to expect from the 2010 Boise State Broncos.
What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the team?
Strengths:
Experience. Boise State returns 20 of 22 starters, except that the coaching staff told no one their starting job was safe this season. That's right. The Broncos will have Fiesta Bowl veterans nervously watching the two-deep roster every week.
Defense. Boise State's defense is better than its offense, and it took me a good year-and-a-half to wrap my head around that one.
Beating WAC teams. Especially Nevada.
Coaching. And I do not even mean gameday coaching, although that is really good, too. Boise State has great year-round coaching from recruiting to training to teaching to motivating to managing and everything in between.
Running back. There are four players who have had 100-yard games. And I love them all equally. (That's not true. I love Doug Martin best.)
Weaknesses:
Killer instinct. Boise State let too many teams hang around last year. It was bad times. Not only did it cost them some respect from pollsters and the national media (Beating Tulsa by a touchdown? Mark May finds that very disagreeable), but it also made it very hard on my life-crippling gambling addiction.
Bowl games. Except for the Fiesta Bowl.
Depth behind Austin Pettis. When Pettis went down last year, the Bronco offense was not itself. Sadly, the Pettis cloning project I tried to underfund this offseason went south and I blew the cash I raised on Lego Harry Potter.
What team on the schedule do you fear the most?
Well, it's certainly not a WAC team. Am I right? Who's with me?
/realizing the joke's on me
/getting depressed
/watching 2010 Fiesta Bowl DVR
/feeling better
Obviously, the answer from most all sane Bronco fans will be Virginia Tech. The Hokies are a preseason Top Ten team with the kind of depth and talent that non-BCS schools simply don't see all that often. And those sane Bronco fans are right; VT will be a test.
But I am most fearful of Oregon State. Beaver fear courses through my veins for a number of reasons. A) Oregon State is a very well-coached team that is one of the most consistent programs in the Northwest. B) The game is not receiving the cataclysmic attention of the Broncos' Labor Day opener with the Hokies, and therefore it stands to reason that players and fans might be overlooking it. C) The Rodgers' brothers were birthed by video game Bo Jackson. D) The game follows a tough test on the road against Wyoming.
I peed my pants a little writing that paragraph.
Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?
DE Shea McClellin. The pecking order of Boise State defensive linemen goes like this: DE Ryan Winterswyk, DT Billy Winn, DT Chase Baker, JUCO transfer and never-taken-a-snap-before-with-the-defense DE Tyrone Crawford, afro'ed DE Jarrell Root, MLB Byron Hout, and then McClellin. To say that people don't talk about McClellin enough is to say that not enough people watched Better Off Ted. Of course they didn't watch. There was too much else to do.
Well those people were missing out, both because Better Off Ted was excellent and so is the Better Off Ted metaphor in this case, McClellin. The former high school RB from small-town Idaho blossomed as a starter last season, and he looked absolutely superb in spring practice. He has one of those Jared Allen motors, which helps him compensate for the quasi-RB way he plays defensive end.
Best of all, McClellin often lines up as a linebacker when the Broncos switch from their traditional 4-2-5 into the 3-4 or the 3-3-5. It is terrifying to watch, and I am 30 miles away in my papasan chair.
Who is the best offensive player on the team?
Kellen Moore is the best offensive player on the team, as well as the planet, and probably in the history of the world. It's a fact. Ask any Bronco fan.
Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?
DT Billy Winn. Oho, did I throw you off the scent by singing hallelujahs at Shea McClellin in the above paragraphs? McClellin may be a force at DE, but a DEs impact is much more acute and narrow than a DT. Winn can control football games when is playing his best. He has that rare DT ability to hold the line of scrimmage and absorb blockers while still possessing a passing game push. His bull rush is top notch. And even he gets into the linebacker action when the Broncos go to the 3-3-5.
What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach its full capability?
CB Brandyn Thompson. This question inspired a post over at OBNUG where I blamed my premature disappointment on Thompson's inability to replace Kyle Wilson man to man. Am I being unreasonable? Of course I am. Thompson doesn't even have dreadlocks or his own wrapped RV.
However, just because Wilson's shoes are impossibly large to fill doesn't mean that Thompson gets a free pass. The Boise State defense got used to relying on Wilson's lockdown corner skills so much so that the D transformed into a blitzing, risk-taking unit that didn't need to pay any attention to one whole half of the field. Can Thompson pull the same sleight of hand this season? His up-and-down 2009 had hints of greatness and hints of awfulness. We'll see.
Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
LT Faraji Wright. The Broncos did a very strange thing this offseason. They moved their best offensive lineman, LT Nate Potter, to guard. Why? Because Faraji Wright told them to, that's why.
Wright and Wright clone Charles Leno were such up-and-coming stars in the BSU system that Bronco coaches were forced to make room for them. Inside went Potter, and Wright and Leno were left to duke it out for starting honors in his place.
I'm going with Wright for the starting role based on what little I have seen of him in practices and scrimmages. Plus, his name is not synonymous with the man who ruined late night television. Had there been a Charles O'Brien, I would have voted for him.
Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?
DE Tyrone Crawford. There is only one spot on the Boise State defense that had to be replaced this offseason (although the Bronco coaching staff said everyone's spots are fair game, so there goes that fun stat).
You will hear a lot about CBs Jerrell Gavins and Jamar Taylor, stepping into the vacant spot at cornerback. But chances are that you will hear Crawford's name plenty, too, once the season kicks off. A Canadian JUCO transfer, Crawford is expected to seriously contend for a starting spot this season on the defensive line. Will he overtake Winterswyk or McClellin? Quite possibly. But even if he doesn't, the Boise State coaches rotate their defensive linemen often enough that he will make an impact.
Former DE Byron Hout (he of the LeGarrette Blount punch) was moved to MLB to make room for Crawford, and Hout was a really good DE. Crawford must be something special.
Make sure you check out OBNUG prior to and after the big Virginia Tech showdown. You can also follow them on Twitter @OBNUG.
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