Bowl Predictions Part 1 (12/18-12/26)

New Mexico Bowl (12/18 2pm on ESPN)
BYU (6-6) vs. UTEP (6-6)

Kevin's Prediction: BYU 41 UTEP 24

BYU has played a really tough schedule this year (FSU, Utah, TCU, Nevada, Air Force, Washington) and it has resulted in them having a pretty poor record. They really struggled early losing 4 of their first 5 but they seem to be playing pretty good football right now as they won 3 blowouts before falling to Utah by 1 point in their last game. UTEP on the other hand has not played the same type of schedule (although they did play Arkansas late and surrendered 58 points) and they ended up with the same 6-6 record. UTEP is coming into this game having lost 5 of their last 6 including losses to 4-8 UAB, 4-8 Onelane, and 5-7 Marshall

Ross's Prediction: BYU 35, UTEP 21
BYU won four of their last five games; UTEP lost five of their last six games -- give me the team with better momentum (and greater consistency in general; BYU is typically very solid).

uDrove Humanitarian Bowl (12/18 5:30pm on ESPN)

Northern Illinois (10-3) vs. Fresno State (8-4)

Kevin's Prediction: FRESNO STATE 35 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 24

Northern Illinois started off 1-2 with losses to Iowa St and Illinois but them reeled off 9 straight wins before falling to Miami (Oh) in the MAC Championship. But of these 9 wins only two of them came against teams with winning records (Temple and Toledo). Fresno State beat common opponent Illinois and also holds a win over Cincinnati. The Bulldogs had a tough schedule this year and came up short in their biggest games (lost to Nevada by 1 point, got routed by Boise State, lost to Hawaii by 20+ and lost to Ole Miss by 20+). I like Fresno in this one because they've played a much harder schedule and have beaten better teams.

Ross's Prediction: FRESNO STATE 31, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 17
NIU suffered a deflating loss in the MAC Championship game -- and then they lost their head coach a few days later.  Meanwhile, Fresno State ended the season with a nice win over Illinois and have a much more stable coaching situation.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (12/18 9pm on ESPN)

Ohio (8-4) vs. Troy (7-5)

Kevin's Prediction: OHIO 28 TROY 21

Ohio closed the year strong by winning 7 of their final 8. Despite losing to Kent State 28-6 in their finale, Ohio can be proud of late victories against Al Golden's Temple 31-23 and MAC Champion Miami (OH) 34-13. Ohio was the only team in the MAC to beat Miami (OH). Here's an interesting tidbit about Troy, they haven't beaten a team with a winning record all year long. Troy is dangerous because they can put up a bunch of points but I'm going to side with Ohio in this one.

Ross's Prediction: TROY 27 OHIO 21

Troy has a 1-3 all-time record in bowl games; Ohio has an 0-4 mark.  I'll go with the team that's actually won a bowl game before, thanks.

Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl (12/21 8pm on ESPN)

Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville (6-6)

Kevin's Prediction: LOUISVILLE 31 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 27

Ah, Finally a game I might be interested in watching. Charlie Strong's debut season was decent has a took the Cardinals to 2 more victories than they had last year. The biggest win for Louisville when you look at their schedule was their 26-0 shutout of a team that is going to a BCS bowl (UConn). Louisville also really doesn't have any "bad" losses on their schedule as they lost to Kentucky, Oregon State, Cincy, Pitt, South Florida in OT and West Virginia by 7. Charlie also really instituted some defensive intensity as they finished 15th in the Nation in Defensive scoring giving up on 18.7 points per game. Southern Mississippi's biggest win this year was over C-USA Champion UCF. When you look at Southern Mississippi's schedule they are only 8 points from being 11-1 which is almost unfathomable for a team that lost to a 4-8 UAB team. To me this game is pretty much a toss up. The most intriguing match-up is Strong's 18.7 ppg given up versus the Golden Eagles 37.6 points scored per game. I'm a Power Conference Elitist so I'm going with the Big East team although one should argue whether the Big East counts as a Power Conference.

Ross's Prediction: LOUISVILLE 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20

Southern Miss has a potent offense and a lousy defense; Louisville has a potent defense and a lousy offense.  I think Charlie Strong will have Louisville motivated for their first bowl trip in a few years -- and Southern Miss' porous defense will be just what the Cardinals need to get going.

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl (12/22 8pm on ESPN)

Utah vs. Boise State

Kevin's Prediction: BOISE STATE 45 UTAH 17

This is THE game of the first week of Bowl Season. It means even more to me because in Week One next year Kellen Moore and Boise State will be bringing their talent to the ATL to face my Georgia Bulldogs. I think this one is tight in the first half but Boise rolls in the second half. Utah has won some decent games (Pitt, Air Force, BYU, San Diego State) but ultimately they got rolled in the two biggest games of the year and I can't see a team that lost by 25 to Notre Dame beating Boise State. Boise will also be on a mission to put a number on Utah before they head off to the Pac-10

Ross's Prediction: BOISE STATE 42, UTAH 14

Utah got blasted off the map by the one really good team they played all year (TCU), then got smoked by a mediocre Notre Dame team and struggled to beat a so-so BYU team.  Oh, and their starting QB is out for this game.  Boise will probably be disappointed to not be in another BCS game, but I think they'll rebound to smoke Utah anyway.

S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (12/23 8pm on ESPN)

Navy (9-3) vs. San Diego State (8-4)

Kevin's Prediction: SAN DIEGO STATE 35 NAVY 34

Navy's signature win this year came over 7-5 Notre Dame but also lost to Duke. San Diego State ended up having a very good year at 8-4 but ultimately lost every important game they played in (Utah by 4, TCU by 5, BYU by 3, and Missouri by 3). Looking at those scores would you believe it if I told you that San Diego State was 16 points away from running the table? I think this is going to be a fun shootout. San Diego State's passing attack against Navy's running attack. The team with the ball last wins.

Ross's Prediction: NAVY 34, SAN DIEGO STATE 31

This Navy team can actually run AND pass the ball, which is double trouble for their opponents.  San Diego State was a sneaky-good Mountain West team, but I feel un-American picking against Navy here.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (12/24 8pm on ESPN)

Hawaii vs. Tulsa

Kevin's Prediction: HAWAII 48 TULSA 31

This game pits the Nation's #1 Passing Offense (Hawaii) against 16th best Passing Offense in the Nation. It should also be noted that Tulsa is 119th in the Nation defending the pass giving up 305 yards per game, only Tommy Tuberville's Texas Tech was worse this year. This will be fun to watch if you are a fan of high scoring games and blown coverages.

Ross's Prediction: HAWAII 41, TULSA 35

C'mon, it's a home game for a surprisingly good Hawaii team -- that actually plays some decent defense.  I'm not turning my back on the Rainbow Warriors now.

Little Caesars Bowl (12/26 8:30pm on ESPN)

Florida International (6-6) vs. Toledo (8-4)

Kevin's Prediction: TOLEDO 27 FIU 21

The best thing about this game has to be the Pizza. It's a shame I haven't had Little Caesars in years, I guess that's the fallback of living out in the boonies. It's hard to get excited about a team, FIU, who got their victories by beating up on 2-10 and 3-9 teams. FIU's sole win against a team with a winning record was their 52-35 win over Troy. Toledo on the other hand has a couple of quality wins. Yeah, Toledo got smoked by Arizona (41-2) and Boise State (57-14) and they couldn't hang with Northern Illinois (65-30). But they did beat Purdue 31-20 and they also beat 8-4 Ohio 20-13. This is not going to be a ratings grabber but I'd take Toledo if I was a betting man.

Ross's Prediction: TOLEDO 30, FIU 17
FIU let up off the gas in their regular season finale after they'd already clinched the Sun Belt crown and it wouldn't be too crazy to think that they might just be happy to be at their first-ever bowl game.

The Six Pack Games of the Week: Nov. 4-6

Every week, I’ll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who’s going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.

LAST WEEK: 4-2
OVERALL: 31-17

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 4

GEORGIA TECH (5-3, 3-2) @ #22 VIRGINIA TECH (6-2, 4-0) (7:30pm EST, ESPN)After their disastrous 0-2 start (that included a WTF loss to James Madison), Virginia Tech has righted the ship and rattled off six straight wins, including four straight double-digit wins in ACC play. Tech's been better on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense where they've been nigh-unstoppable of late, with four straight games of 40+ points. Georgia Tech's had an up and down season, losing handily to NC State and Clemson and suffering an inexplicable loss to a bad Kansas team, but pulling together five wins -- albeit none over anyone of note (aside from a suspension-ravaged North Carolina squad). Throw in the fact that it's a Thursday night home game for Virginia Tech (something they hardly ever lose) and it's hard to see Georgia Tech pulling off the upset here.
THE PICK: VIRGINIA TECH 42, GEORGIA TECH 24

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 6

#21 BAYLOR (7-2, 4-1) @ #17 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-1, 3-1) (12pm EST, FSN)Baylor's been one of the most surprising and feel-good stories of the year in college football, not only getting bowl eligible (something they accomplished two weeks ago), but taking the lead in the Big 12 South division (which, at 4-1, they hold all to themselves). How long can this crazy ride last? Can the incredible talent of Robert Griffin III carry Baylor all the way to the Big 12 Championship Game? Maybe... but maybe not. For as amazing as Baylor's been so far, they've been able to do it by beating up on some poor teams (Sam Houston State, Buffalo, Rice, Kansas, Colorado) and some disappointing teams (Texas). What truly is the best win on their resume? Kansas State? Texas? The only elite team they've played (TCU) blasted them (45-10) and while Oklahoma State isn't that good, they appear to be getting better week by week (they logged an impressive 24-7 road win over Kansas State last week even without their best player, WR Justin Blackmon) -- and they're at home. Asking Baylor to go on the road again a week after scoring a big road win over Texas seems like a stretch. Blackmon should be back for this game, which means the Oklahoma State could be firing on all cylinders -- which is a scary thought.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE 38, BAYLOR 31

#3 TCU (9-0, 5-0) @ #5 UTAH (8-0, 4-0) (3:30pm EST, CBS College Sports)Of course the biggest game of the week -- and the first (and possibly only) match-up of top five teams -- would be a match-up of MWC heavyweights and be on a random channel like CBS College Sports. It's just been that kind of season this year; chaos reigns and the mid-majors flourish. But there will be one fewer mid-major darling after this game, as well as one less team vying for a BCS bowl berth. The winner will also be the heavy favorite to win the Mountain West Conference, but that seems almost beside the point right now. A TCU win could give them enough credibility to stay ahead of Boise in the BCS rankings for the duration of the season -- which would guarantee them no worse than an at-large berth and possibly even enable to them to sneak into the BCS Championship Game. On the flipside, would a Utah win over TCU be enough to push them ahead of Boise -- and keep them there? Probably not, thanks to the middling nature of their schedule. It may not even get them into a BCS bowl (if the BCS bowls decline to take two mid-majors this year as they did last year), which would be quite a slap in the face. But a loss kills any hope Utah has of doing something big this season, so the stakes are certainly high for them too (they just need more help than TCU does).

So... what about the game itself? TCU has the 9th best scoring offense (40.8 ppg), but their real strength is their sick defense, which is allowing just 8.7 ppg -- best in the nation. Only three teams have reached double figures against them -- Oregon State (21), Baylor (10), and SMU (24!). They've gone over a month without allowing more than six points and they've given up only two touchdowns in that entire span; sure, they're doing it against MWC foes, but consistently holding anyone to that level of output is remarkable. Their defense is really damn good. Utah's no slouch, either, though; they have the 3rd best scoring offense (45.3 ppg) and the sixth best scoring defense (14.1 ppg). They've put up 50+ four different times this year. On the other hand, they've also struggled more than TCU; they needed OT to beat a pretty mediocre Pitt team and were in a dogfight with a good but not great Air Force team a week ago (they won, 28-23). TCU's closest margin of victory is their nine-point opening weekend triumph over Pitt; other than a weird Friday night road game against SMU, they've barely been tested the rest of the season. Does that close-game experience give Utah an advantage or does it mark them as vulnerable? Hard to say. Utah has a good team and homefield advantage, but TCU just looks like a juggernaut right now. They won't eviscerate Utah the way they've destroyed their recent foes, but it's still too hard to pick against them.
THE PICK: TCU 27, UTAH 13

#6 ALABAMA (7-1, 4-1) @ #10 LSU (7-1, 4-1) (3:30pm EST, CBS)LSU's national title hopes appear fairly slim after Les ran out of his Milacles against Auburn two weeks ago, but they still have a shot at a conference title (with a win here and an Alabama win over Auburn later in the year). For all their flaws on offense (and, oh, there are many), they still have a filthy defense (at least when they aren't facing Cam Newtown and, no offense to Alabama's excellent offensive skill position players, but there aren't any Cam Newtons on that squad), homefield advantage (although Death Valley isn't so menacing in mid-afternoon as it is in the evening) and two weeks of preparation time... it wouldn't be the biggest upset ever. Then again, Alabama's had two weeks to prepare as well, their defense has steadily improved all season (and they won't be hugely tested by LSU's anemic attack), and their mammoth offensive line and one-two punch at running back should be able to pound away at LSU's defense. No doubt Les will have some tricks up his sleeve, but here's guessing it won't be enough.
THE PICK: ALABAMA 24, LSU 14

#18 ARKANSAS (6-2, 3-2) @ #19 SOUTH CAROLINA (6-2, 4-2, 7pm EST, ESPN)This week's other SEC game of the week features the nominal SEC East favorite (the Gamecocks) and the forgotten man in the SEC West (the Hogs). Arkansas' title aspirations were dealt a crushing blow by their losses to Auburn and Alabama, but they're still good enough to be a threat -- and a spoiler to the ambitions of a team like South Carolina, who still finds themselves the favorite to win the SEC East, despite their own two losses. South Carolina's pass defense has been shaky at times and Arkansas still has the most potent passing attack in the SEC; South Carolina also runs the risk of looking ahead to their division-deciding game with Florida next week. All that said... South Carolina is a different team with a healthy Marcus Lattimore. They're playing well and it just feels like this is finally their year in the SEC East.
THE PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 31, ARKANSAS 28

#15 ARIZONA (7-1, 4-1) @ #13 STANFORD (7-1, 4-1, 8pm EST, ABC)Or, the battle to be Oregon's bridesmaid in the Pac-10. Stanford's at home and fresh off a thorough demolition of Washington a week ago (41-0). Arizona's going on the road and fresh off an uncomfortably close 29-21 over a middling UCLA team -- and they're still trying to sort out their QB issues (regular starter Nick Foles is expected to be recovered from a knee injury in time to play in this one, but he might also be rusty). That said, they do have probably the stiffest defense Stanford has faced all year and the most potent offense they've dealt with aside from Oregon -- they're unquestionably a good team. But just how good are they? That's unclear. Edge to Stanford since they're at home and seem to be dealing with fewer issues right now.
THE PICK: STANFORD 34, ARIZONA 30

Game Re-Cap: Utah 27 Pitt 24

I had Pitt at #16 and Utah at #22 in my pre-season poll so this one looked like it would be a close one. Ross picked Utah to win 27-23 in his Six-Pack preview. Here is a breakdown of the action:

1st Quarter

Dion Lewis got 18 yards on his first carry but Pitt got too cute after easily picking up a first down on their first set of downs and had to punt on their first drive. Utah moved the ball well on their first drive but they fumbled and gave Pitt the ball in Utah territory. Dion Lewis reminds me a little of Warrick Dunn due to his size and the way he bounces around trying to juke and jive. Pitt missed a very makeable 42 yard FG. Utah's offense looked better than Pitt's in the 1st stanza but they came away with nothing to show for it.

2nd Quarter

Utah made a huge mistake on a Pitt punt. The Utah return man ran up to catch the ball, called for a fair catch, and let it hit off his hands and Pitt recovered. Two fumbles for Utah’s Smithson in the first 15 minutes of the season. Pitt got the ball inside the Utah 30 to start the second quarter. Pitt drove the ball and Dion Lewis scored on a short TD run. Utah brought this score on themselves as they were losing the early turnover battle 2-0.

Pitt 7 Utah 0

Matt Asiata broke off a good 15 yard run right up the middle to get the ball to mid-field. Jordan Wynn then started to get into a groove  and hit multiple receivers before connecting over the middle for a TD to Jeremy Brooks. Very impressive TD drive from Utah.

Pitt 7 Utah 7

After Utah scored, the Pitt returner let the ball hit off of him and it bounced about 15 yards and Utah recovered. Turnover battle: Utah 2 Pitt 1. Utah took over on the Pitt 35 and Jordan Wynn stood back in the pocket and delivered a 24 yard pass down the sideline that would have been a TD if the receiver could have stayed in bounds. Utah ran a good roll out and Wynn hit an easy TD pass. The Utah offense is looking good.

Utah 14 Pitt 7

Utah started off the next defensive series with a sack of Tino Sunseri for a loss of 9 yards. Pitt quickly went three and out. On third and long RB Eddie Wide took a hand-off and broke a tackle and went 20 yards to keep the drive going. Wynn launched a jump ball and the Utah receiver did a great job stopping his route and making a play on the ball and coming down with the catch. Utah had the ball inside the 10, Pitt put on a blitz and Wynn threw one up and the Pitt defender got a huge pick in the end zone to keep this game from starting to get out of hand. Pitt ran down the clock and considered themselves lucky to be down only 7 points.

3rd Quarter

Utah got the ball first and Wynn hit Brooks on a crossing route for 46 yards down near the red zone. Pittsburgh held tough inside the red zone but Utah was able to hit a FG to go up two scores.

Utah 17 Pitt 7

Pitt is just too one dimensional on offense and Utah is really keying in on Dion Lewis. Potential game-changing special teams play as Pitt blocked a punt and got the ball inside the 10 yard line. Utah up by 10 at this point but has 3 turnovers and has given up a block punt. The Pitt offense went backwards but K Dan Hutchins was able to get one just inside the goal posts from 37 yards out. The only reason Pitt is in this game is because of Utah’s mistakes.

Utah 17 Pitt 10

Utah went 3 and out and Wynn looked a little bit ruffled. Pitt started to put together a drive before the 3rd quarter ended.

4th Quarter

Dion Lewis took a pitch and just got smothered for a loss of 5 yards. After getting a gutty 4th and 1 conversion Pitt went backwards on three straight plays and had to settle for a FG. Hutchins hit an easy 29 yarder. This was Pitt’s first good drive of the entire game but they came up short of getting the ball in the end zone.

Utah 17 Pitt 13

Wynn hit a slant to Davonte Christopher for 60 yards and a TD! Big time play. 8 minutes left but that one should just about do it unless a different Pitt team comes out for the next kickoff.

Utah 24 Pitt 13

Johnathon Baldwin got wide open and Sunseri hit him with a high arching 40 yard TD pass. Pitt went for two and went to Baldwin again for a successful conversion. Pitt moved from hammering the ball unsuccessfully with Dion Lewis to passing to Baldwin and it really paid off on this drive.

Utah 24 Pitt 21

Pitt stopped Utah and Utah shanked a punt with just three minutes left in the game. The punt didn't even make it past mid-field. Sunseri hit a big pass over the middle for 20 yards with only 20 seconds left in the game. Hutchins knocked down a game-tying FG.

Pitt 24 Utah 24

But wait, apparently the FG did not count and Utah was given a timeout to “ice” the kicker. Hutchins misses left but the whistles were blowing before the kick missed and Utah had called another time out. Doh! Finally, Hutchins got a real kick and just barely squeezes it inside the up-rights.

Overtime

Utah won the toss and deferred. Sunseri rolled out but he held onto the ball too long and under-threw his receiver. The Utah DB broke in front and got a huge interception. Utah just pounded the ball up the middle and inside the 5 yard line. Utah kicker Joe Phillips came on and won the game with a 21 yard FG

Final Score: Utah 27 Pitt 24

Lots of mistakes in this game in the form of turnovers and penalties. Big win for Utah. Jordan Wynn looked impressive throughout most of the game but still showed his inexperience by hoisting a few passes that he should not have thrown. I would expect Utah to be 8-0 when they go to TCU on Nov 6th to seek revenge on the Horned Frogs (the Frogs put up 55 on Utah last year). For Pitt, this was a tough loss. Pitt is expected to contend for the Big East title (here on the blog we actually picked them to win the league, although I will mention my pick for the conference is West Virginia). Pitt really had some poor playing calling in the first half and got too one dimensional in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. I think Pitt and Sunseri will get better as the year goes on. Despite Pitt not playing very well tonight they were in the game and had a chance to win at the end but could not pull it off. Pitt has a gimme next week but then they face another tough battle against Miami and if they play the way they did tonight my money will be on Miami.

Player of the Game
Jordan Wynn, QB, Utah
21 of 36 for 283 yds, 3 TD and 1 INT

Star Watch
Dion Lewis, RB, Pitt
25 carries for 75 yds, 1 TD, 1 reception

Jon Baldwin, WR, Pitt
4 rec for 71 yds, 1 TD

DeVonte Christopher, WR, Utah
8 rec for 155 yds, 1 TD

Jereme Brooks, WR, Utah
5 rec for 87 yds, 2 TD

The Six Pack Games of the Week: September 2-6

Every week, I'll throw a spotlight on the six most interesting games of the weekend to tell you why these are the games you should try to catch, who's going to win (and why), and what ramifications they could have on the rest of the college football landscape.

THURSDAY, SEP. 2

Pittsburgh @ Utah (8:30pm EST, Versus)

While ESPN continues to torment us with a third-straight year of featuring South Carolina in the Thursday-night opener, Versus has stepped up to the plate with a game of actual intrigue. Unlike most opening week affairs, it pits two teams with a pulse against one another; in fact, these two teams are legitimate contenders to win their respective conferences. So it's got that going for it. It's also a rematch of the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, which would probably be more meaningful if it hadn't been, you know, one of the worst BCS bowl games in recent memory. You're probably going to watch just about anything on the first night of real college football in eight months, but here's a game that shouldn't just be empty calories.

THE PICK: Utah 27, Pitt 23

SATURDAY, SEP. 4

Purdue @ Notre Dame (3:30pm EST, NBC)

I wouldn't normally focus on a game featuring two unranked teams in this feature, but the pickings are slim on the opening weekend and this game should actually be fairly intriguing. On one side you've got Purdue entering Year 2 of the Danny Hope Era with hopes of new QB Robert Marve and stud DE Ryan Kerrigan spearheading a dark horse Big Ten challenge -- or at least a return to a bowl game for the first time in three years. On the other side you've got Notre Dame getting their first taste of life without Charlie Weis -- and life with Brian Kelly. Love or loathe Notre Dame, their first steps under Brian Kelly should be interesting -- and if you like high-scoring passing offenses, this game should have a couple good ones.

THE PICK: Notre Dame 34, Purdue 31

Connecticut @ Michigan (3:30pm EST, ABC/ESPN)

UConn's a slightly under the radar pick to win the Big East, and a win over Michigan (even Michigan in its current emaciated state) would be a hell of a way to jump-start that campaign. They have plenty of returning talent from a squad that was just a few plays away from being a 10-win team a year ago and they have a hard-nosed, underrated coach in Randy Edsall who's resisted overtures from bigger programs to try and do something special in Storrs; this year's team may be his best bet to do just that. Meanwhile, Michigan enters the season with a defensive secondary in shambles, uncertainty at quarterback, the lingering malaise of the last two bowl-less seasons, and a coach under intense fire to prove that his system can work in Ann Arbor. Oh, and Michigan's lost two of their last three season openers. So, you know, no pressure or anything.

THE PICK: UConn 35, Michigan 28

TCU vs. Oregon State (7:45pm EST, ESPN)

Boise State gets most of the preseason plaudits among the non-BCS crowd since they return twenty starters and are coming off a 14-0 season and a win over this same TCU team in the Fiesta Bowl. On the other hand, TCU returns a ton of talent in their own right (9 on offense, 7 on defense) and should be very, very good in their own right. This game is an early (and rare, given their normal presence on the TV ghetto that is The MTN) chance for them to state their case in front of a national audience, which should have them plenty fired up. Given their relative starting positions in the polls TCU is likely going to need Boise State to slip up somewhere to move ahead of them in the hunt for a guaranteed BCS slot -- or even a spot in the national title game, which is a realistic possibility with both teams starting in the top 10. But in Oregon State, TCU should have a solid test on their hands; the Beavers have to break in a new QB, but they do bring back both of the fabulous Rodgers brothers.

THE PICK: TCU 31, Oregon State 17

LSU vs. North Carolina (8:00pm EST, ABC)

To be fair, this game looked a hell of a lot more interesting before damn near the entire North Carolina starting defense was rumored to be suspended for various rules violations; back before that it looked like it was going to pit a pair of nasty defenses and two teams that are vaguely dark horse picks to win their respective conferences. Now you have a UNC team mired in scandal, likely to be missing multiple players off what was expected to be a very strong defense. LSU has question marks of their own, but nothing like what UNC is facing and they have the added benefit of not having to deal with distracting scandals and having a better offense. This game has turned into a de facto SEC-ACC Challenge; so far the SEC is 2-0, with Alabama picking up wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech. LSU should make it three in a row without too much difficulty.

THE PICK: LSU 27, UNC 14

MONDAY, SEP. 6

Boise State vs. Virginia Tech (8:00pm EST, ESPN)

These are the games where Boise has excelled in their rise to prominence over the past few years, splashy non-conference showdowns in which they have weeks to prepare for their opponent. And, as has been noted in just about every preview written about them, they return 20 of 22 starters from last year's 14-0 team. That's a good thing. On the other hand, they've never quite played a game like this one; the game is ostensibly at a "neutral site," but it's in FedEx Field at Washington, D.C., a few skips and jump away from the Hokies' home base in Blacksburg, VA -- and quite a few hops away from Boise. There should be no lack of motivation from the Hokies, either; they're ranked high enough to largely control their own national title destiny at this stage of the season and a win over a top-5 squad like Boise will only shoot them higher. Past BSU victims in high-profile games (Oklahoma in the '07 Fiesta or TCU in the '10 Fiesta) could point to the fact that the Fiesta Bowl was a consolation prize; Oklahoma had missed out on the national title game because of a pair of regular season losses (to Colorado and Texas Tech), while TCU had missed out on the national title game on account of Texas' last-second field goal in the Big XII Conference Championship Game. There won't be any such issues hampering Virginia Tech this year and there should be little reason for them to overlook Boise State after Boise's near-constant success over the past five years. There are some interesting match-ups to watch in the game, too; can Boise handle Virginia Tech's punishing running game (which should be even better with a healthy Darren Evans to spell Ryan Williams) and the athleticism of Tyrod Taylor? Conversely, can Virginia Tech's rebuilt defense handle the high-powered and experienced Boise offense, especially the pinpoint passing of Kellen Moore? It should be a fascinating battle.

THE PICK: Virginia Tech 28, Boise State 21

Pre-Season Preview: Utah Utes

2009 Record: 10-3 (6-2 in Mountain West)
2009 Bowl: Poinsettia Bowl (Beat California 37-27)
Final 2009 AP Ranking: #18
Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham (47-17 at Utah)
Non-Conference Schedule: Pittsburgh (9/2), San Jose State (9/25), at Iowa State (10/9), at Notre Dame (11/13)

2009 Offensive Statistics
Scoring: 29.8 points per game (3rd in MWC)
Rushing Yards/Game: 160 (3rd in MWC)
Passing Yards/Game: 229 (3rd in MWC)
Total Yards/Game: 389 (3rd in MWC) 

2009 Defensive Statistics
Scoring: 20.2 points per game (3rd in MWC)
Rushing Yards/Game: 137 (4th in MWC)
Passing Yards/Game: 176 (3rd in MWC)
Total Yards/Game: 313 (3rd in MWC)

2009 Misc Stats
Turnover Margin: +0.38 per game (3rd in MWC)
Penalties: 69 yards per game (last in MWC, 110th in Nation)

Returning Starters
Offense: 7
Defense: 4
Kicker/Punter: 2

Top Returning Statistical Leaders
Passing: QB Terrance Cain, Sr (137 of 215 for 1624 yds, 11 TD, 5 INT, 135 passing ypg, 26.5 rushing ypg)
Passing: QB Jordan Wynn, Soph (104 for 179 for 1329 yds, 8 TD, 4 INT, 221 ypg)
Rushing: RB Eddie Wide, Sr (202 carries for 1070 yds, 12 TD, 5.3 ypc, 82 ypg)
Receiving: WR Jereme Brooks, Sr (56 rec, 696 yds, 7 TD, 4.3 rec/game)
Tackles: DL Sealver Siliga, Jr (50), DB Brandon Burton, Jr (47)
Sacks: DL Christian Cox, Sr (5.5)
Interceptions: DB Lamar Chapman, Sr (2)

2010 Pre-Season Rankings
Lindy's: #25
Mark Schlabach: Not Ranked
Rivals: #22
Scout: #23
Sports Illustrated: #25
Athlon Sports: #39

2010 Pre-Season Mountain West Prediction:
Athlon Sports: #2

Bowl Prediction:
Athlon Sports: Poinsettia (vs Navy)

Utah was perfect in 2008. They went 13-0 and finished their season with a decisive win over SEC Runner-Up Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. There really wasn't anywhere to go from there but down. Utah posted a 10-3 record with two narrow defeats at the hands of Oregon and BYU. In their other loss they were thumped by TCU 55 to 28. Can Utah take back the Mountain West Conference from TCU this year and also hold off BYU and Air Force? The Utah Blog Block U weighs in on if they can repeat the magic from the 2008 season.

What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the team?

Well I think Utah's biggest strength will be their consistency on offense this go around. In 2009, the Utes had to start the season with a new quarterback and generally, when you're going in with an untested guy under center, there are some concerns. That was Terrance Cain and he did a fairly decent job throughout most of the season, however, lost his starting job to Jordan Wynn eight games into the season. Cain was fairly productive as a quarterback in his first eight starts and had an exceptional record (7-1). Unfortunately, the offense wasn't living up to its level of expectations and often stagnated during games. In that eighth game against the Wyoming Cowboys on Halloween, the coaching staff made the switch at the half and Wynn has played ever since. Wynn's biggest win, of course, came in the Poinsettia Bowl against Cal. He was named the offensive MVP and, unless injury becomes an issue, should be Utah's starting quarterback when the 2010 season rolls around later this summer. Of course, even if he doesn't start, they'll have a quarterback in Cain who started in eight games- so the experience factor heavily benefits the offense.

The weakness might be the defense due to talent turnover. With that said, Utah's head coach is Kyle Whittingham and the defense has been his baby since 1994 here at Utah. The growing pains the Utes' defense generally sees is minimal and I've got to think, even with some big-time losses, that will be the case again this season. What could help ease the transition is the fact that Kalani Sitake, Utah's defensive coordinator, is no longer a rookie assistant. 2009 was his first season as a coordinator and there were obvious growing pains. That won't be the case in 2010.

Looking at the schedule who will be the first major test and why?

The first test is the first game against Pitt. I don't think I really need to explain why that game will be tough for Utah, since the Panthers probably will enter ranked even higher than the Utes. This is a statement game. If Utah can win, they'll be in good position to make some noise the remainder of the season. Any time you open up the year against a ranked team in your house and have a realistic shot of winning (if not being favored), it automatically becomes a huge game. The fans have it circled. The players have it circled. And it certainly will drive up the anticipation the closer we get to the start of the season.

What team on the schedule do you fear the most?

Probably TCU. The Frogs manhandled Utah last year and just a change of venue (the game was played in Fort Worth then) isn't going to fix the blatant talent discrepancies between each team. If the Frogs are every bit as good as they were last year and Utah is only marginally better, they potentially could still be facing a blowout loss- even at home.

Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?

Griffin McNabb. He's a freshman, but had a great spring game and is in position to make a lot of noise as a wide receiver in a young offense. Since he's a freshman, though, not much has been mentioned of him lately. He did have a great spring game and Ute fans are hoping that carries over into the season.

Who is the best offensive player on the team?

That's a tough one. I'd like to think Jordan Wynn, but Matt Asiata is a beast. He'll be returning this season after missing most of last season due to an injury. As a running back, he positioned himself as one of Utah's biggest offensive threats. Of course, you can't go wrong with the guy who replaced him last season. That was Eddie Wide and he had a stretch of six consecutive games where he rushed for 100 or more yards, a school record. On the year, he finished with 1,069- that's without starting the first four games.

Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?

I'd say Dave Kruger. But that's because I'm in love with the Kruger boys (his brother Paul was big during our 2008 undefeated, BCS busting season).

What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?

I think the young defense needs to step up and live up to Utah defenses of the past. Wynn will have big shoes to fill because of how he ended last year (leading us to a win in our bowl game). Overall, the team is talented and has a nice balance needed to play at that full capacity.

Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year?

I think I've got to go with Griffin McNabb again. Maybe I'm overselling him, but he seems like the type of guy that could step in and become an instant impact player.

 

Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?

Utah really has a tough schedule. Pitt, Iowa State, Notre Dame, TCU and BYU all could be losses if they're not careful. With that said, I expect at least ten regular season wins (which means no more than two losses) and potentially- this is just potentially -an undefeated season. So I'll pick 11-1 as a compromise. If it's 10-2, it depends on who they lose to and whether or not they win a conference championship. Anything less and I guess we'll have to take it on a game by game basis. 12-0, well damn, I'll be in heaven!

Next Up: UNLV Rebels


2010 Previews
Big East- Cincinnati Bearcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, West Virginia Mountaineers
Big Ten- Michigan Wolverines, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Northwestern Wildcats, Purdue Boilermakers
Conference USA- Houston Cougars
MAC- Temple Owls

Sun Belt- Troy Trojans